Lt Gen DS Hooda (retd)

Former Northern Army Commander

The standoff at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh is set to continue through the winter. There is minimal possibility of any significant military moves during the winter months, and it has been reported that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has already moved 10,000 soldiers from depth areas back to their permanent garrisons in Xinjiang and Tibet military regions. The Indian Army, even if it wishes to, will find it more difficult to pull out soldiers. With the roads to Ladakh closed, both the moving out of troops and their re-induction in an emergency, is extremely difficult.

Even as soldiers battle the winter conditions, the greater challenge for the Indian Army lies in anticipating events and preparing for contingencies in the coming summer months. The overall political intent of the Chinese leadership in precipitating the crisis along the border is still open to differing interpretations, but eight months into the standoff, there is greater clarity to their military aims. The PLA military strategy appears to be focused on two objectives — strengthening control over the disputed areas along the LAC and overcoming their war-fighting weaknesses in Tibet.

It is becoming increasingly evident that the primary element of the PLA’s military strategy is to change the nature of disputed areas to give permanence to their claims. In Ladakh, this is being attempted by physically occupying the disputed areas on the north bank of Pangong Tso or physically preventing the Indian patrols from going up to their claim lines at Depsang. Despite nine rounds of military-level talks, there has been no movement forward on disengagement from these two areas.

The construction of a village in the disputed Longju sector of Arunachal Pradesh is another ploy to firm up China’s claims. While this area has been under Chinese control since 1959, the fact that India also has a claim to this area is well known to both sides. It had been an accepted norm that both countries should avoid any provocative move in the disputed areas. In 2014 and 2016, the PLA had objected to the construction of small irrigation projects at Demchok, claiming this was a disputed area. However, all protocols and norms have now lost their sanctity.

In 2005, both countries signed an agreement on the ‘Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for the Settlement of the India-China Boundary Question’. Article VII of the agreement states, “In reaching a boundary settlement, the two sides shall safeguard due interests of their settled populations in the border areas.” By building villages and settling civilians in disputed areas, India could be presented with a fait accompli during the border negotiations.

The second element of the PLA’s strategy is to overcome its war-fighting weaknesses in Tibet, and many of the steps undertaken by the PLA in this regard precede the Ladakh standoff. The most obvious disadvantage is faced by the PLA Air Force due to the rudimentary support facilities at the airfields and the problems in operating from high-altitude facilities, which limit the fuel and weapon payloads that can be carried by an aircraft. Some of these weaknesses are now being attempted to be overcome through the development of new military facilities. A September 2020 Stratfor report by Sim Tack pointed out that after the Dokalam incident of 2017, China “started constructing at least 13 entirely new military positions near its borders with India.”

The new constructions include three air bases, five permanent air defence positions, and five heliports. Four air defence positions are coming up within the existing airbases, along with other facilities such as additional runways and blast pens. The report states that the recent Chinese infrastructure developments are aimed at “strengthening its ability to project air power along the entire Indian border.”

Another area where the PLA has a deficiency is its training standards and the ability to fight a high-altitude war. Here again, some attempts to improve standards are visible. In the last few years, the Chinese Army has attempted to introduce realism in training by setting up “blue forces” in the combined-arms training centres that act as an enemy to PLA units.

Coming specifically to Tibet, the PLA Army and Air Force training exercises have steadily increased over the years. These details have been comprehensively covered in an Observer Research Foundation paper, “PLA joint exercises in Tibet: Implications for India.” What is noteworthy is that in 2018, 2019 and 2020, major PLA exercises were held in January and February, the coldest months of the year. However, for now, the Indian Army still retains its superiority in high-altitude warfare.

The 2020 Ladakh incursion by the PLA was an operation that was preceded by many months of preparation and military infrastructure development in Ladakh. It also shows that China is now moving aggressively to establish its claims over the disputed areas and has discarded all the agreements that had kept the peace along the LAC.

What does this mean for the coming summer months? It would be strategically prudent for the Indian Army to prepare for a contingency in which the PLA attempts to move into more disputed areas along the LAC, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh. To counter this, we must aggressively secure these areas now before the snows melt and the PLA movements become easier across the Himalayan watershed defining the LAC.

An argument is often made that the existing stalemate resulting from our firm stance is a victory for us because we are not acquiescing to Chinese demands. There is certainly some merit in this argument because a stalemate is generally considered a setback for the superior power. However, remaining entirely on the defensive could also mean that we have passed on the initiative to the Chinese and will continue to react to their actions. With talks not making any headway, the summer months could see military jockeying in the disputed areas. Strong and visible military preparation in these areas would serve as deterrence to any PLA action and strengthen our hand in future negotiations.

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, January 29

Opposition leaders today backed the massive farmers’ mobilisation along Delhi’s borders and at Muzaffarnagar with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi urging the protesters: “Do not retreat even by an inch. We are with you. If the PM thinks the farmers’ will go back, he is mistaken. He must resolve the matter and the only way to do so is to throw the farm laws in a waste paper basket, failing which this agitation will spread to cities, villages and across segments.”

Rahul called the government’s attempt to get the protest sites vacated as “criminal.” Refusing to comment on the farmers’ role in the Republic Day violence, he asked, “Who allowed 50 protesters to storm the Red Fort?”

Earlier in the day, Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal arranged water supply to the Ghazipur protest site where BKU leader Rakesh Tikait is on a dharna.

Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Badal too announced support for the agitating farmers as did former Uttar Pradesh Chief Ministers Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party and Mayawati of the BSP.

Meanwhile, the BJP accused Rahul of “inciting violence” after he warned the Narendra Modi government that if farmers’ protest was not defused, the agitation would spread throughout the country.

New Delhi, January 28

The Delhi Police have issued lookout notices against 44 persons named in 33 FIRs registered so far in connection with the violence during the farmers’ tractor parade.

The police said names of Punjabi singer and actor Deep Sidhu and gangster-turned-social activist Lakha Sidhana had been added to the FIR registered at Kotwali police station over Red Fort violence.

In a separate FIR over the same incident, the police have invoked sedition charges. The officials said a case under Section 124A (sedition) of the IPC had been registered and the incident was being investigated.

Meanwhile, in a high-level Ministry of Home Affairs meeting, the police were directed to ask the accused 37 union leaders to submit their passports.

The police have also served show-cause notices to the leaders, asking them to explain as to why action should not be taken against them for breaching the agreement with the police for getting permission to hold the rally. — TNS

Chandigarh, January 29

Violence erupted at the Singhu protest site today after over 500 persons claiming to be locals pelted a farmers’ camp with stones, lead ing to a clash between them and the agitating farmers.

Dhindsa, GK move court

Former Union Minister Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa and Sikh leader Manjit Singh GK have moved a Delhi court against a news channel

Delhi Police SHO (Alipur) Pradeep Paliwal was injured after a man attacked him with a sword, an official said. The police resorted to lathicharge and used tear gas shells to defuse the situation. The protesters, claiming to be residents of nearby villages, said they wanted the site vacated as the prolonged farmers’ stir was affecting their livelihood.

At Tikri too, over 200 persons carrying the Tricolour demanded that the protest site be vacated. The police, however, intervened timely.

Some of the protesters were identified as residents of Singhu and nearby villages Daryapur, Bakhtawarpur and Hamidpur of Delhi, said police sources.

Tikri protesters were from Haridas Colony.

Meanwhile, throwing their weight behind farmers, several political leaders and public figures like Bheem Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad, Delhi Deputy CM Manish Sisodia, Congress leaders Ajay Kumar Lallu, Deepender Hooda and Alka Lamba, and RLD vice-president Jayant Chaudhary visited BKU leader Rakesh Tikait in Ghazipur.

Thousands of farmers gathered at Muzaffarnagar in UP on Friday to participate in a mahapanchayat in support of the protest against the new farm laws in Ghazipur on the Delhi-UP border. The mahapanchayat resolved to throw its full weight behind the Ghazipur protest.

Rakesh Tikait’s brother Naresh Tikait, who had called the mahapanchayat after Thursday’s developments at Ghazipur, told the charged crowd to move towards the Delhi border, about 100 km away.

A day after BKU leader Rakesh Tikait broke down at Ghazipur and tension spiralled amid fears that the farmers who had been camping there for two months would be forcibly removed by the local administration, all roads in western UP appeared to lead to Muzaffarnagar. — TNS/PTI

New Delhi, January 29

Farmers protesting against the Centre’s new agriculture laws will observe ‘Sadbhavna Diwas’ on Mahatma Gandhi’s death anniversary on January 30 and hold a day-long fast, farm union leaders said on Friday.

Addressing a press conference at Delhi’s Singhu border, the farmer leaders said the fast would be held from 9 am to 5 pm and appealed to the people of the country to join them.

The farmer leaders also slammed the ruling BJP at the Centre and accused it of trying to “destroy” the “peaceful” agitation against the farm laws.

“The conspiracy of the ruling  BJP to destroy this farmers’ movement is now exposed to all,” he said .

The farmer leaders also asserted that the number of agitators at all the prominent protest venues – Ghazipur, Singhu and Tikri – is swelling after the police allegedly tried to remove farmer leader Rakesh Tikait from Ghazipur border on Thursday night. PTI

New Delhi, January 29

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Friday said the only solution to the farmers’ issue was throwing the new agri laws in the “waste paper basket” and warned that if not resolved, the agitation will spread to other parts of the country.

In a no-holds-barred attack at the Centre, Gandhi accused the government of trying to intimidate and discredit the farmers, using the National Investigation Agency.

“It is very obvious that the farmers are very agitated because the government is destroying their livelihood. It is destroying the livelihood of our labourers and it is going to give the middle class a shock in the coming times because the prices of food are going to skyrocket,” the former Congress chief said at a press conference.

“What is being done to the farmers is absolutely criminal. You (government) are beating them, you are threatening them, you are bullying them, you are trying to discredit them,” he said.

The government needs to talk to the farmers and provide a solution to them, he said.

Gandhi asserted that the only solution is repealing these laws and “putting the laws into the waste paper basket”.

“The government must not think that the farmers are going back home. They are not going home and my concern is that this situation is going to spread. We do not need this situation to spread, we need a conversation with farmers and we need a solution,” Gandhi asserted.

Responding to a question, he said the farmers’ movement is going to spread to other states and cannot be suppressed.

The whole issue is not just about farmers and this will go from farmers to workers to urban areas and slums, he said.

Asked about the Republic Day violence, he said, “Who allowed the farmers to enter the Red Fort; is it not the home ministry’s job to stop them from doing so.” PTI

Rajesh Ramachandran

It was as if a Republic Day tableau took a violent life of its own and ended in a sad, silly skit at the Red Fort. The genuine fears of farmers about the possible privatisation of procurement of foodgrains were sustaining the two-month-long agitation that had become some sort of a model for protesters. The langar, community living and the peaceful, resolute and joyous mass mobilisation triggered by idealism had captured the imagination of the nation. Despite certain elements in the electronic media trying to unleash a smear campaign, all that the farm protests elicited was sympathy and solidarity. Yet, it took just a few agent provocateurs and saboteurs to derail the protest, turn the tide, transform the flower petals of adulation showered by supporters into stones of anger. This should never have happened.

Does a negotiation hold any meaning if one side has to win and the other lose conclusively and completely?

Pause. Every mass movement ought to stop to catch breath when its just demands are met halfway. When the government on January 20 agreed to suspend the contentious farm laws for 18 months (with one of the negotiators suggesting even two years), the farmer leaders should have agreed to reciprocate this gesture. Mature leadership demands a transactional strategy of giving in to take more or ceding to claim the moral high ground. The farmer leaders ought to have sought a longer period of suspension — say, two or three years — and returned home like victors and giant-killers. That a duly elected government agreed to suspend a law for about two years was in itself a great victory for the protesters. Suspension, after all, was just one step short of the repeal or withdrawal of the laws.

But this offer was not accorded the respectful deliberations it deserved, and instead was rejected by certain hotheads. It was widely reported that 15 of the 32 farmer unions from Punjab had voted to suspend the agitation and return home. That was the turning point. The 17 who made the 15 succumb to their wishes were taking over the agitation in a show of majoritarian strength and not in the true spirit of democratic decency towards the minority opinion. The more extreme elements who voted against accepting the government’s offer should be held responsible for all that went wrong on Republic Day. The intriguing details of hooliganism by some protesters — like former BJP supporter Deep Sidhu — turn the entire drama at the Red Fort into a multi-act conspiracy play with more prompters backstage than actors upfront.

The farmer agitation was a sort of pilgrimage for many Punjabis. Those who chose to see only multi-million tractors, blaring speakers worth lakhs, pizzas and foot massages obviously did not look at those who walked hundreds of kilometres to reach the protest site — a practice of piety for Indians across the country. It was this sombre, prayerful protest that got discredited because some of the units of the Bharatiya Kisan Union decided to take a maximalist position. Does a negotiation hold any meaning if one side has to win and the other lose conclusively and completely? That does not happen even in an outright war unless it is something akin to the destruction of the LTTE and its maximalist chief V Prabhakaran, which resulted in untold misery and racial humiliation to an entire community. The 17 hotheads need to analyse the loss of integrity of the farmer agitation.

Rethink. When the President, while addressing the joint sitting of Parliament, on Friday reiterates the government’s commitment to respect the Supreme Court’s decision to keep the farm laws on hold, soon after the government’s representatives offering to suspend the laws, the farmer unions ought to recalibrate their next move. The government’s suggestion to suspend the laws, obviously, was a face-saving exit from the cul-de-sac of its own making. Now, by not accepting this proposal, the farmers are walking into a dead end of another kind. They need to rethink their strategy all over again, while keeping the idealistic embers burning for the long haul.

For all we know, this Gandhian agitation had the potential to throw up a political alternative for the next general election. By the end of two months, there were comparisons drawn between the farmer agitation and the Anna Hazare movement against corruption that destroyed the credibility of the UPA government and laid the ground for the BJP’s return to power in the 2014 election. The anti-corruption protests had never descended into violence or chaos and were carefully crafted to create a new political platform, which became a nationwide phenomenon, putting the Aam Aadmi Party and Arvind Kejriwal in positions of power. Instead of taking a similar trajectory, the farmer protests have been reduced to an identity play with religious symbolism and brainless bravado as the primary scripts. Non-stop protests by hotheads who mistake negation for negotiation can only promise a comic show of athleticism atop a slippery pole, which the entire Republic Day fiasco was finally all about.

Restart. The gains thus frittered away could be best recouped by taking a break now for a new beginning. Government procurement had helped lift masses of farmers from poverty. They would all gradually get aligned with the protesters if they continue to walk the narrow path of non-sectarianism and non-violence, transforming the movement into a national campaign. But that requires the masses to be reassured that this is a farmers’ movement and not a clash of inflamed egos of a few wealthy Punjabi landowners. A decent interval can bring down the tempers and soothe bruised minds and rebuild the protest, if required. On its part, if the government has understood the mood of farmers and does not attempt to implement these laws at all, then the slogan of ‘repeal’ becomes an empty threat of disruption. Our farmers should not turn victory into defeat. How unfortunate it is not to realise that you have succeeded and to keep chasing a mirage!