New Delhi: India is witnessing its worst-ever border tensions since the Kargil battle in 1999, with China bringing forward at least 5,000 troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh.

Transgressions have been reported at multiple locations in eastern Ladakh — three in the larger Hot Springs area and one in the ‘Finger’ area of Pangong lake.

Now, news agency ANI has reported that Chinese troops have moved in “nearly 10-15 km from the Indian post KM 120” in the Galwan Valley, and have pitched tents and stationed themselves close to the post. Post KM 120 lies on the strategic Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi road whose inauguration last year caused much discomfort to China.

The report does not make it clear if the Chinese movement is within territory controlled by China or India. However, sources in the know maintain that there is no transgression here per se, even though troop build-up has taken place on the Chinese side.

Satellite imagery shared on social media by experts has shown that the troops are most likely within the Chinese Claim Line (CCL) in the Galwan Valley, where that line matches the Indian perception of the LAC.

The sources told ThePrint that while about 250 troops are deployed here on a regular basis, more troops have been brought in to counter the Chinese deployment. The sources insisted that this does not mean the KM 120 post is under threat, but that it is being used for deployment and logistics.

Also read: Stand-off in Ladakh: Army matching wits with China, on every step

Worst since Kargil

What is happening at the LAC in eastern Ladakh doesn’t resemble how things unfolded in 1999, but the fact that the troop build-up and transgressions are happening at multiple locations as far 200 km apart, makes this the worst border tensions India has seen since the Kargil battle.

ThePrint had reported earlier in the day that India is carrying out “proactive localised preventive deployment” at multiple locations along the LAC in eastern Ladakh, even as it has carried out “mirror deployment” in areas where it has been challenged by Chinese troops.

The ANI report said the Indian Army has increased the presence of its troops and patrolling in other areas of eastern Ladakh under the 70 Brigade, in the Himachal sector and the central sector of the LAC, including the border with Uttarakhand, to check any attempts by the PLA to transgress.

It added that the Chinese army has diverted its troops, carrying out a massive exercise on its side of the LAC, and deployed them at short notice across the LAC in the areas under the Indian Army’s 81 and 114 Brigades, deployed to counter the Chinese assertions from Daulat Beg Oldi and adjoining areas. The Indian Army has remained mum on the issue.

Here’s an account of what has transpired so far.

Fist fight on 5 May

On the evening of 5 May, a large group of Chinese soldiers, armed with sticks and stones, descended upon a group of Indian soldiers, who were taken by surprise and eventually hit back.

The fist fight and stone pelting continued for quite some time, injuring several soldiers on both sides. Some of the injuries sustained were so severe that some soldiers including officers had to be evacuated to military hospitals.

The Army has not spoken officially on the issue but has admitted “injuries to several” soldiers.

Also read: India-China border conflict shows Beijing’s aggression not always rhetorical, says US diplomat Alice Wells

Transgression in ‘Finger’ area

The 134-km Pangong lake’s northern bank juts out like a palm, and the various protrusions are identified as “fingers” to demarcate territory. While India asserts that the LAC starts at Finger 8, China claims it starts at Finger 2, which India dominates.

Two-thirds of the lake, which extends from Tibet to Ladakh, is controlled by China, while the LAC passes through the lake itself, because of which both sides patrol it on land and in the water.

Since the perception of LAC is different, the area has a history of scuffles between both sides.

During the Kargil battle, when troops were diverted from the area to fight Pakistan, China had stepped in and built a motorable road at Finger 4.

Sources said India has been trying to construct a road further from Finger 2 over the past few years, which would have provided soldiers with the capability to move in vehicles. The Chinese have, however, now brought in more soldiers and have set up bunkers near Finger 3 to prevent Indian patrols from going further.

This is a clear transgression, because Chinese troops are in what India claims is its territory. Both sides have increased the force levels in this area.

Galwan Valley tense with troop build-up

While the initial focus was on Pangong, it later emerged that China had objected to a series of construction activities being carried out by India about 200 km away, in the Galwan Valley.

Galwan has largely remained peaceful since the 1962 India-China war. It is one area where the Chinese Claim Line and the LAC match, and this has been the understanding for years now at the local level.

However, no maps have been exchanged in this area, which means any kind of understanding is not formal.

The sources said what riled China in this area was a series of road construction activities, which are important to India from a military point of view, vis-a-vis the key base of Daulat Beg Oldi in sub-sector north in eastern Ladakh.

India’s Border Roads Organisation had built the Shyok-DBO road last year.

This road is at least 10 km inside the LAC at several points, and runs perpendicular to the Galwan river. To connect this road to the LAC, India was constructing feeder roads. This included a bridge over a nullah or rivulet, near the confluence of the Shyok and Galwan rivers.

The Chinese have been objecting to this, and following the Pangong clash, they decided to amp up their presence.

China brought in a large number of Border Defence Regiment (BDR) troops along the LAC to stop the Indian construction activity. They have pitched a large number of tents and set up associated logistics elements.

Taken aback by the Chinese objection to construction within Indian territory, India decided to “dig in” and do mirror deployment.

Hot Springs

Beside the build-up in Galwan Valley, Chinese troops have “come in” about 3 km into Indian territory south-east of the Galwan Valley, largely known as ‘Hot Springs’ area in eastern Ladakh.

The Chinese have come in near patrol point 14, 15 and the Gogra Post, which are 80 km south-east of the mouth of the Galwan Valley as the crow flies, and between the valley and Pangong lake.

Sources told ThePrint that the Chinese have not crossed the CCL in these areas, but did accept that these areas are about 3 km within India’s perception of the LAC.

Also read: IAF’s Sukhois on sorties in Ladakh amid tensions with China but no jets ‘scrambled’

Pakistan army initiated unprovoked ceasefire violation by small arm firing with mortar shelling along LoC in Balakote sector in Poonch district Tuesday, a defence official said.

“Pakistan army initiated unprovoked ceasefire violation by small arm firing with mortar shelling along LoC in Balakote sector in Poonch district early Tuesday morning”, he said.

He said the Indian Army retaliated befittingly.

The cross-border shelling between the two sides was going on when last reports were received, the officials said.

However, there was no immediate report of any casualty during the shelling.

Also read: Gen Naravane’s insensitive remark undermined 40 battalions of Nepalis in Indian Army

The biannual event is attended by the top Army leadership to brainstorm on new security and administrative issues, and plan a roadmap.

There have been tensions at the LAC for the past few weeks between the Indian and Chinese military, especially in the Galwan valley, larger Hot Springs area and around Pangong Tso lake in eastern Ladakh, a part of which juts out like fingers.On Tuesday, ThePrint reported that at least six rounds of talks were held at the local level (including the division level) in Ladakh to defuse the situation even as Chinese soldiers transgressed by about 3 km into Indian areas in at least four locations, with a troop build-up on the northern sector along the Chinese side of the LAC. This was apart from diplomatic and other efforts being undertaken to handle the issue.

According to sources in the Army, Kashmir is also likely to top the agenda during the meet given the slew of anti-terror operations security forces have undertaken in the Valley recently in the wake of attacks reportedly fuelled by new terrorist outfits. The summers also usually see an increase in infiltration bids at the LoC.

The three-day biannual event is attended by the top Army leadership to brainstorm on new security and administrative issues, and plan a roadmap.

This year’s meet, which was scheduled to be held in April, was postponed due to the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent lockdown. It is now being held in two phases, with the second phase scheduled to take place in June.

Also read: Kashmir, retirement age & artificial intelligence to be discussed at Army Commanders’ meet

Logistics and ammunition

A special focus area of the conference is likely to be logistical issues with an emphasis on ammunition management, sources said.

This could include discussions on reducing ammunition holdings and making the supply chain more efficient.

Other points, which are likely to be discussed, include integration of resources for ammunition, saving on storage space of ammunition, and the manpower required to guard ammunition depots.

In a recent interaction with a limited group of journalists, the Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat had said ammunition would be a priority when it comes to defence acquisitions across services in the wake of the Covid-19 budget cut.He also said there had to be a push for indigenous manufacturing of ammunition given that it is largely import-dependent at the moment.

“If I start manufacturing ammunition in my own country, my stocking levels would come down. If we anticipate a tension, we can always tell the Indian manufacturers that you must have the capacity to surge. If there is a surge capacity with the industry, I can reduce my stocks,” he had said.

General Rawat had also said it is not a good idea to store large amounts of ammunition as they have a limited shelf life during which it has to be fired or destroyed.

He had said reducing storage will free up land and manpower, given that ammunition dumps use up vast swathes of land due to the mandatory safety distances and vacant spaces around it, and also because a lot of manpower has to be utilised for guarding them.

He had also said the manufacturing of ammunition should be divided between two or three companies so that even if a war lasts for 15 to 20 days, every day the Indian industry can supply one day’s ammunition, as against the risk of being denied stocks if one is dependent on imports.

Also read: Rs 30,000 pension soon for men who fought in 1965, 1971 wars but didn’t get absorbed in Army

Training of soldiers

The agenda for the conference is also likely to include various aspects of training of soldiers — an issue that emerged after the entire training schedule for the Army had to be reworked because of the Covid-19 outbreak.

The conference will likely include discussions on merging the Directorate General of Military Training (DGMT) into the Army Training Command (ARTRAC) in Shimla as both have similar functions. This is part of a greater restructuring plan of the Army headquarters.

ThePrint had earlier reported that the Indian military is actively deliberating on setting up a new joint training command to meet the training needs of all its three branches — the Army, the Navy and the Air Force.

While the defence ministry had approved three major reforms for the Army headquarters last August, the restructuring plan can’t be implemented unless the overall restructuring is approved in totality, Army sources had told ThePrint.

Streamlining of various other training-related issues and human resource aspects are also likely to be part of the discussions, Army sources said.

Sources added that other aspects likely to be showcased at the event could include the Army’s efforts extended to aid civil authorities and HADR (humanitarian, assistance and disaster relief) operations undertaken from last year, such as those which came as a response to the coronavirus pandemic. The Army’s capability development initiatives such as procurements, infrastructure development and innovations in the field of operations, training and administration and military diplomacy efforts will also likely be showcased.

New Delhi: Amid continued tensions at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, with both India and China ramping up military presence, the focus is on an “amicable solution” through talks, ThePrint has learnt.

Sources told ThePrint that a review of the security situation has been held at various levels, since tensions cropped up early this month.

While noting that the tensions have increased, sources said established channels have been activated to talk and de-escalate the situation.

“The focus is on an amicable solution,” a source said, adding that steps have been taken to counter the Chinese mobilisation at the LAC, which has escalated tensions in the Galwan Valley, Hot Springs area and the ‘Finger’ area of the Pangong lake in eastern Ladakh.

Also read: Stand-off with China in Ladakh is India’s worst border tension since Kargil in 1999

No escalation since mid-May

Sources told ThePrint that there has not been any escalation in the situation in eastern Ladakh since the middle of May, which they say is a good development.

Officials said while the military has taken position and done proactive preventive deployment in the west and central sectors of the LAC, and is prepared for a long stand-off, established channels for resolution of border issues are working round the clock.

While several rounds of military talks have taken place at the local level in Ladakh, no major breakthrough has been achieved.

Diplomatic channels have been activated to ensure that the situation calms down.

Why the Chinese are peeved

As reported by ThePrint earlier, the Chinese are peeved at a road construction work that India is carrying out from ‘Finger 2’ area of Pangong Lake, as well as a feeder road to the strategic Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi road constructed last year.

While the Shyok-DBO road is well within its territory, India is constructing feeder roads to the LAC, which would enable faster movement of troops and equipment.

The Chinese themselves have built roads near the LAC, but keep objecting to India’s construction.

Army chief Gen. M.M. Naravane had made it clear on 14 May that the development of infrastructure capabilities along the northern borders is on track.

ThePrint had reported that India has decided to “dig in” and conduct “mirror deployment” as China has brought in a large number of its Border Defence Regiment (BDR) troops to the Galwan Valley to force the Indian Border Roads Organisation (BRO) to stop infrastructure-development activities.

Sources maintained that additional troops deployed by China in the Galwan Valley are on their side of the LAC, but they are accompanied by heavy vehicles and logistics such as tents to house the soldiers.

However, Chinese soldiers are said to have “come in” by about 3 km into territory that India perceives as its own. This is near Patrol Point 14, 15 and the Gogra Post, which is several kilometres South East of Galwan Valley as the crow flies, and is between the Valley and Pangong lake. This is largely known as the Hot Springs area, according to the sources.

Sources told ThePrint that the Chinese have not crossed their claim line in these areas, but said these areas are about 3 km within India’s perception of the LAC.

Also read: In Ladakh, like in Doklam, China must learn to deal with the assertive Indian soldier on LAC

The standoff in Ladakh has been triggered by Chinese People’s Liberation Army effort to block building border infrastructure in the Daulat Beg Oldie sector

India has pushed in high altitude warfare troops with support elements to the eastern Ladakh theatre to counter Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aggressive posture designed to browbeat the government to stop building border infrastructure in the Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) sector as it may threaten the Lhasa-Kashgar highway in Aksai Chin. The specialised Indian troops are familiar with the Tibetan Autonomous Region of China and are tuned for operating at rarefied altitudes.

The scale of PLA deployment – two brigades strength and more – indicates that the move has the sanction of Beijing and not limited to local military commanders.

“From Australia to Hong Kong to Taiwan to the South China Sea to India and right up to the US, a bellicose China is staring at the world for domination at all costs,” said a senior government official after a meeting convened by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to review the situation on Tuesday.

CDS Gen Bipin Rawat was the Army Chief in 2017 when the Doklam standoff with China had taken place

Also Watch | ‘China hindering patrolling’: India slams Beijing after Ladakh, Sikkim fistfights

For three faces at PM Modi’s strategy meeting, this was the second time in three years that they were faced with a similar situation. National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat and Foreign Minister S Jaishankar. This was the team that had crafted India’s response to the Doklam standoff in 2017 that lasted 73 days. General Rawat was then the army chief and Jaishankar, India’s foreign secretary.

Also Read: India matches up to China’s military in standoff near Karakoram Pass

The messaging from Tuesday’s meeting mirrored India’s response to the 2017 standoff when Indian troops dug in and stood their ground in the face of a rapid mobilisation by the Chinese side.

Officials said while India favours de-escalating the situation on the LAC through mutual respect and dialogue under the peace and tranquility mechanism in place, PM Modi’s ‘Doklam team’ has been told to prepare for all eventualities.

In purely military terms, the Chinese dominance and deterrence posture in the DBO sector is an effort by the PLA to try to prevent India from executing its rapid border infrastructure building plan. This summer is the last chance it has.

“The Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road will be completed this year and will raise the Indian capacity to rapidly deploy in the area. If the road project is blocked, the Indian Army will be forced to live off aerial supply lines and prepare for an arduous route linking Sansoma to Murgo to DBO through glaciated Saser La,” a national security planner in the government said.

Also Read: China’s tactical play in Ladakh isn’t just about the boundary

To be sure, there has been friction between the Indian Army and PLA in Pangong Tso, Galwan and Depsang Plains for the last two years. But most of these were taken care of.

“Just as China has built infrastructure within its own claim line without any objections from India, the former is opposed to any Indian infrastructure build up as if New Delhi has military objectives while Beijing has done this to promote tourism,” said a former army chief, a reference to the infrastructure on the Chinese side where all military outposts are linked by metalled roads to the base camps.

Also Read: Resolution of the Doklam stand-off is a case study on how to deal with China

While China has all plans to stare down India into submission with its all-weather ally Pakistan deliberately initiating troop movement in neighbouring Gilgit-Baltistan region, India cannot afford to budge from its position as this will amount to acceding to Xi Jinping’s cartographic expansion in the area through military muscle.

It is in this context that the Indian Army has inducted more troops in the theatre with others undergoing through the acclimatization process as this may be a long haul.

“The Chinese have already initiated psychological operations through its mouthpieces to remind India of the 1962 border skirmish in the same area. But this is 2020 and the leader is Narendra Modi,” said a senior cabinet minister.

The Chinese envoy underlined how the two nations are fighting the scourge of Covid-19 together and urged the youth to view each favourably.

he two nations pose no threat to each other, stressed Chinese envoy in India Sun Weidong on Wednesday amid face-off between New Delhi and Beijing over the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Ladakh sector recently. The envoy further stressed that any “differences” can be solved through communication.

“We should never let differences overshadow our relations. We should resolve differences through communication,” envoy Sun Weidong was quoted as saying by news agency ANI.

The Chinese envoy underlined how the two nations are fighting the scourge of Covid-19 together and urged the youth to view each other favourably.

“China and India are fighting together against Covid-19 and we have an important task to consolidate relations. Our youth should realise the relation between China and India, the two countries are opportunities for each other and pose no threat,” Weidong was quoted again by ANI.

The external affairs ministry said last week the Indian side remained firmly committed to the common objective of maintaining peace and tranquillity in border areas, as this is an essential prerequisite to further development of India-China relations.

On Tuesday, India, officials familiar with developments said, won’t allow any alteration of the status quo on the LAC and the build-up of Chinese troops will be faced with “strength and restraint”.

In many ways, India’s position is a reiteration of the stance it adopted during the 73-day standoff at Doklam in 2017, when Indian troops dug in and stood their ground in the face of a rapid mobilisation by the Chinese side.

PM Modi also met National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Chief of Defence Staff Gen Bipin Rawat last evening to assess the situation along the LAC amid a tense standoff between thousands of Indian and Chinese troops, especially Galwan Valley and Pangong Lake in eastern Ladakh.

HT was the first to report on May 10 about tensions flaring between India and China in north Sikkim, where 150 soldiers were involved in a tense clash a day earlier. Four Indian and seven Chinese soldiers were injured at Naku La during the confrontation.

Around 250 soldiers from the two sides also clashed near Pangong Lake on the night of May 5-6, with the scuffle leaving scores injured. While an immediate flare-up was avoided as both armies stuck to protocols to resolve the situation, tensions spread to other pockets along the LAC.

Wg Cdr JS Bhalla (retd)

During the lockdown, the things that mark our day — commuting to work, sending kids to school, having a drink with friends — have vanished. Life has come to a standstill. However, stray dogs, who have the roads to themselves, can be seen sunbathing in golden silence. I observed a few enjoying pollution-free vatavaran in front of my house. This reminded me of Boozo, an adorable pet of Flt Lt TK Chaudhuri.

I was posted at the Ambala Air Force Station in 1961. Chaudhuri, a fighter pilot and a teetotaller, was my next-door neighbour. After days of flying, he would relax in the corridor, playing guitar. In squadron parties, he would render soul-stirring melodies of the past, keeping the audience spellbound.

His brown dog was a companion who brought joy to his life. It was a delight to watch the dog delivering the newspaper to his master. The dog would wag his tail to express his happiness whenever Chou, as he was called, was home.

In early 1965, when tension was brewing across the western border, we moved to our operational locations. The Air Traffic Services were made operational in a wooden hut, where one could barely squeeze in with the equipment neatly stacked. Trenches were dug all around to jump in during air raids. Choudhuri, along with his squadron, flew to Halwara. He gave the custody of Boozo to his trustworthy sahayak, Gopi.

In the beginning of September 1965, Pakistan attacked Akhnoor sector, destroying the Akhnoor bridge — a vital link of communication for us. The induction of the Indian Air Force into the battle at that time ruined the well-thought-out plans of the Pakistan army. During an air battle, Flt Lt Trevor Keelor was credited for the shooting of a Sabre by his invisible Gnat. We yelled and welcomed the news by thumping the tables. We were still in the midst of our rejoicing when news trickled down that we had lost Chou in an operation. Words froze in my throat; I couldn’t budge an inch.

Things were not normal with Boozo either. He was no more playful, and wailed a lot for his master to return. He refused to eat anything. It took him some time to realise that Chou had gone forever, and when he did, his health declined rapidly, leading to a frightening visit to the vet. We were told that he may not last long. As he lay dying, Boozo went quiet, but his eyes expressed the pain he was going through. We were all sad when he passed away. The demise of his master was too harsh for him to bear. His death exhibited the sacred bond that existed between the master and his pet. He was given a befitting burial.

Sumedha Sharma

Thirty-nine-year-old Lt Col Robert TA was a loving son, husband, officer, friend, comrade, dear senior and so much more. He bid the world adieu for his second innings, leaving behind a tale of camaraderie, brotherhood, compassion, and an envious smile few can boast of!

Col Robert was martyred when an avalanche hit a patrol party in Lugnak La area of north Sikkim on May 14. Hailing from Senapati district in Manipur, he was the first officer from the Maram Naga community to join the Army’s technical wing.

“I am deeply aggrieved to learn about the sad demise of Lt Col Robert TA of the 3rd Engineers Regiment of the Indian Army. Apart from serving the Indian Army in different capacities in different parts of the country, he was associated with different sporting events and brought laurels to his regiment… May his soul rest in peace,” the Manipur CM, N Biren Singh, said in a tribute.

A heated confrontation recently took place between the Indian and Chinese soldiers in north Sikkim, resulting in injuries to troops on both sides. Despite a warning from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment of an avalanche in the region, ground commanders knew that keeping all roads open was an operational necessity. With this objective, Col Robert and his team went ahead with snow clearance, while planning for weather and enemy contingencies.

“The news of the avalanche flashed and we learnt that Robert was missing. The other soldiers had been found and evacuated. We hoped that Robert would be all right. When the news of his supreme sacrifice came, it was hard to believe. The ever-smiling, the ever-enthusiastic Robert was no more,” a close friend shared.

They weren’t there hiking or trekking, but to open a road axis rendered non-operational due to snowfall. They knew their life was at stake, yet they went about their task with unflinching devotion. Col Robert was a highly motivated officer, leading from the front. A football wizard, he could ‘bend it like Beckham’.

Robo, our hero, will live in the hearts of friends and family. “An irreplaceable loss, our God of football, humane and compassionate… he was like a big brother,” said another grief-stricken friend.

Like many who gave up their lives for their motherland, we do not know one promise these men made, one pledge they gave, one word they spoke; but we know they summed up and perfected, by one supreme act, the highest virtues of men and citizens.

In all this din, when the country is busy combating Covid-19, some other heroes have bid adieu forever, silently. They are not just Indian soldiers; they are the true pride of every Indian. We citizens must remember all those brave souls whose sacrifices went unrecognised — they were as brave as the ones we honoured.

Dear Robo, your impressions of life will forever colour the journey of those who came across you.

Lt Gen KJ Singh (retd)

As India takes on Covid-19, I am reminded of a regimental health emergency we battled in April 1980. My roommate announced that he had caught viral infection, which had been reported in Ambala by a few others. His eyes had a distinct pinkish hue and were watering. It was fairly apparent that he had conjunctivitis. As it’s highly contagious, I tried to maintain social distance to the extent possible, in a shared room with beds 4 ft apart and a common toilet. I was doing Adjutant duties, and spending the maximum time in office was a good option. My roommate didn’t believe in concepts like quarantine, and despite being declared sick in quarters, his social forays continued.

Though this infection is limited to the eyes and is highly irritating, it tends to go away in a week. Over the next two days during PT and other regimental parades, it was distressing to see the infection acquiring a virulent form and jawans donning all kinds of sunglasses. My CO got it soon after, and even I was wearing goggles, notwithstanding the irritating infection, refusing to be declared positive.

Regimental Medical Officers (RMOs), due to a shortage of doctors, are rare to find, and invariably shared among units. Our RMO, Capt PK Ghosh, came directly from the medical college after his brief mandatory orientation. Trains those days normally ran six-eight hours late. He arrived past midnight, when a party was in full flow. Upon introduction, he was given regimental wisdom — Peekay (after drinking), one can become madhosh (drunk), but can’t be Ghosh. He readily imbibed not only this wisdom but also reasonable quantities of drinks, becoming a jolly good doctor!

The problem was serious as the RMO was on leave and Gurcharan, his assistant, was holding the fort. Regiments had no medically trained nursing assistants. Gurcharan had learnt it on the job. During a football match, I was forced to take stitches by him. My surgeon-brother saw them later and remarked that only a vet could display such expertise. No wonder, jawans called him neem hakeem.

Saturdays in the Army are utilised for interior economy, as ‘make and mend’ or administrative days. It was decided to extend it till further orders. The meagre stock of eye drops and painkillers, affectionately called ‘All Pain Cure’ (APC) were distributed. Regimental advisory was simple: avoid eye contact, a tacit form of lockdown. Next week, the regiment limped back to normalcy. Die-hard ones like my roommate continued to educate us on the criticality of eyesight, and even warned us of a relapse. Lockdown was becoming part of regimental DNA.

Realising this impasse, we passed simple orders — conjunctivitis is over and there is no relapse; shades are no longer allowed during parade; regimental PT and other parades to resume. One only hopes that life can be equally simple beyond the regiment, and similar orders can be passed — corona has been deported; rise and shine.

Jayadeva Ranade

President, Centre for China Analysis and Strategy

There is high anxiety in the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership in Beijing at the present state of China-US relations. Official Chinese think tanks have described China-US tensions as at a ‘dangerous’ turn and apprehend that relations could rapidly deteriorate further leading even to conflict. China’s leadership assesses that tensions have been sharply accentuated by the coronavirus pandemic and that the consequent worldwide rise in anti-China sentiment has been fanned by the US. The CCP leadership is divided, however, on whether it should make concessions in order to repair relations with the US.

Three Chinese think tanks recently analysed different aspects of US-China relations and issued their reports in late April. Affirming China’s need for good ties with the US, two of them recommended measures to arrest the slide in China-US relations and turn the anti-China sentiment, including in the US, in China’s favour. None recommended yielding concessions to the US, which would mean altering the assertive foreign policy being followed by Chinese President Xi Jinping, and neither suggested steps that might provoke the US. There were two prominent Chinese, though, who hinted through the Hong Kong media at ways to reduce tensions.

The suggestions of these two officials seemed to dilute the deadlines on aspects of China’s ‘Two Centenary’ goals — which include reunification of Taiwan with the mainland and establishment of sovereignty over the South China Sea. Chinese officials have traditionally resorted to publicising their own, or their patrons’, views that are controversial through the Hong Kong media which is read by senior cadres inside China. It is indicative also of serious differences within the top echelons of China’s leadership on whether to re-orient China’s foreign policy.

Reuters reported on May 4 that the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a think tank of China’s Ministry of State Security (MoSS), had presented an ‘internal’ report to President Xi Jinping and top Chinese leaders in early April. It warned that Beijing faces a rising wave of hostility in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak that could tip relations with the United States into confrontation.

The report concluded that anti-China sentiment globally is at its highest since the Tiananmen Square crackdown and could fuel resistance to China’s Belt and Road infrastructure investment projects. Washington could also step up financial and military support for regional allies, making the security situation in Asia more volatile. The report said Beijing faces a wave of anti-China sentiment led by the United States in the aftermath of the pandemic and needs to be prepared in a worst-case scenario for armed confrontation. It added that the US aims to undercut the CCP by undermining public confidence.

A People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Daily essay on May 5, reinforced the CICIR’s assessment and described the bleak economic and political situation as having reached a ‘high explosive point’. It cautioned that major foreign powers could utilise the difficult global economic situation for gaining overall strategic advantage and use the economic crisis to cause a recession in China and provoke social upheaval. Advocating the need for financial and military preparedness, it warned that an economic crisis could cause a political crisis.

On April 24, China’s biggest government think tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) published in its China Social Science Journal a lengthy 3,152-character report analysing US media attacks against China during the Covid-19 pandemic. Published only in Chinese, it identified six main characteristics of the US media ‘slandering and denigrating China’ and said Beijing needs to prepare for future propaganda wars against China during major emergencies.

The CASS report recommended six steps for winning ‘public opinion battles’. Among them are: coordinating with government media, private media, diplomats, enterprises and think tanks to coordinate quick and effective counter-attacks; use all channels including social media and mobilise companies, think tanks, foreign scholars and experts who are ‘China-friendly’ to speak and write articles on foreign platforms; and hire and train people to write op-ed articles in foreign languages and ‘borrow’ think-tank experts and foreign journalists to edit Chinese state media abroad.

The so-called ‘private’ Beijing-based Minzhi International Research Institute, published an article on US-China relations on April 24. The think tank is important because it is headed by Prof Zhang Weiwei, a former Chinese Foreign Ministry official who has successively worked as a translator for then Premier Li Peng, Vice Premier Wan Li and Deng Xiaoping.

Asserting ‘there is no doubt that we can achieve a great renaissance and may even surpass the United States’, the article emphasised ‘senior Chinese officials are very clear-headed that they must improve Sino-US relations’ in which China has invested heavily.

The article discussed 12 ways of reducing anti-China influence in the US, including mobilising lobbies to influence government, and reducing ‘unnecessary’ panic of Americans about China. Panic, it said, will hamper China’s development and rise and ‘is very likely to harm our own fundamental interests.’

Many senior party cadres and officials in Chinese think tanks have since mid-2018 privately blamed Xi Jinping’s aggressive foreign policy for China’s growing international isolation, rapidly deteriorating relations with the US, and poor international image.

Any substantive effort to repair relations with the US would mean backtracking on the ‘Two Centenary’ goals, on which Xi Jinping has staked personal prestige and authority. It would imply reverting to Deng Xiaoping’s policy of ‘lie low, bide your time’. Xi Jinping is unlikely to quietly yield to inner-party opposition.