A team: Some gained Modi’s favour while predictably others fell out.
Neerja Chowdhury
Senior Political Commentator
Team Modi 2019 is in place and carries the ‘chhaap’ of the PM, unlike 2014 when he was new to Delhi, and Arun Jaitley was an integral part of the ministry-making exercise. An important takeaway of NDA-2 is that Modi would like to move India from being a soft state to a muscular one, both internally and externally. The PM has opted for continuity, and for change. Mandate 2019 was to give Modi another term, and he has retained many ministers in the positions they held in the previous government.
But he has brought about a change in the constitution of the high table of government, the Cabinet Committee on Security, which is the apex decision-making body, with the PM, Home Minister, Finance Minister, Defence Minister and the External Affairs Minister on it.
The PM has opted for Amit Shah as Home Minister and not as Finance Minister, which at one point seemed likely with the buzz emanating from Mumbai and Gandhinagar that Shah would plump for the most powerful ministry — Finance and Corporate Affairs — with its outreach to business, industry and corporates.
Heading the Home Ministry, Shah is seen as the clear No. 2 in the government, though this would have been a given, whichever of the four top departments he held, with his preeminent position in the party and his proximity to the PM. He would now be giving both a political as well as a governmental push to the BJP’s core agenda. During the campaign, Shah spoke unambiguously about abrogating Articles 370 and 35 A, which confer a special status to J&K; and the creation of the National Register of Citizens to weed out ‘illegal immigrants’, which may make the minorities even more apprehensive. He did not refer to the Ram temple issue, currently before the SC, or the enactment of a uniform civil code. These are issues which can be hyped at appropriate moments, and can be used to help offset pain on the economic front.
There was speculation that Shah’s induction might see a downgrading of the otherwise powerful National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. But that has been put to rest with Doval given Cabinet rank and a five-year tenure.
In what was an out-of-the-box move, the PM brought a career diplomat S Jaishankar to head the MEA. He dropped Sushma Swaraj, who had publicly announced that she would not contest because of ill health. She could have been given the Rajya Sabha, but that she had made the announcement at the peak of the campaign in MP last year, and apparently without consulting the PM and Shah, did not go down well.
Jaishankar knows the nuts and bolts of foreign policy, having been Foreign Secretary till 16 months ago. He has always maintained a low profile, something the PM appreciates. Even after retirement, he played a role at the Pravasi Bharatiya meet in Varanasi. The PM’s euphoric meeting with the Indian diaspora at New York’s Madison Square Garden — which made the world take note of Modi — was crafted by Jaishankar when he was ambassador to the US. Given his understanding of China, having been ambassador there, he can navigate the emerging situation with the US-China trade war not showing signs of abating.
Even in his first term, the PM showed a preference to work through bureaucrats and domain experts, rather than his ministerial colleagues. Could Jaishankar’s entry be a precursor to more technocrats entering his ministry?
The high table now has two ministers from the South, where the BJP will try and increase its footprints in the next five years. Jaishankar was quick to troubleshoot for the government after the outcry in Tamil Nadu against the possibility of the imposition of Hindi as part of the three-language formula.
Nirmala Sitharaman’s elevation as FM has come as a surprise. She emerged as a compromise choice, preferred to Piyush Goel, who was being also considered, and Jaitley is believed to have had a role in her elevation. Sitharaman, with an economics background from JNU and known for probity, is expected to ensure continuity, with Jaitley no longer able to take up the responsibility due to ill health. She has her task cut out, with the slowing down of the economy posing the biggest challenge to Modi-II. The crisis in the banking sector and non-banking financial companies, growth slumping to a 5.8% figure, unemployment at its highest, and food inflation, are all a cause for immense worry.
Ministers have been chosen keeping in mind states going to the polls at the end of the year —Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana — to give suitable signals to improve the BJP’s prospects. Arjun Munda has been given Tribal Affairs, so he can ensure the implementation of schemes in Jharkhand.
Bihar elections are due in 2020. Five ministers from Bihar, where the BJP won 17 seats, have been inducted. This has caused heartburn in ally JD(U) which won 16 seats and was offered only one ministry as a ‘symbolic’ gesture, which it has turned down. All allies were offered one ministership as a token of appreciation. The Shiv Sena is also unhappy with the Heavy Industry portfolio. While the BJP does not need allies, it may not want to take the risk of dumping them in state elections, particularly as it keeps its sights fixed on a majority in the Rajya Sabha by 2020-end to push through its agenda.
By choosing someone like Pratap Sarangi, who lives in a hut and rides a bicycle, as a minister, the PM is eyeing Odisha in the future. Given the subalternisation of politics that is taking place under him — the chaiwallah opting for those on the margins, and with the backward castes and the more deprived among the Dalits also having rooted for him — he has sent a powerful signal to his new constituency.
Equally significant is the thinking behind the list of those left out.
The PM’s ministerial exercise shows that Narendra Modi expects competence, and also total loyalty.
