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HT Editorial: What does China want? If it is serious about peace, the first step is clarifying the LAC

India is clear about where its perception of LAC lies. It has repeatedly asked Beijing to clarify its perception of LAC and exchange maps

ndia is clear about where its perception of LAC lies. It has repeatedly asked Beijing to clarify its perception of LAC and exchange maps(REUTERS)

The post-1988 framework of India-China ties rested on a simple principle. Both countries recognised they had a serious boundary dispute, but they agreed that the larger relationship should not be held hostage to the dispute. And therefore, while the border should be kept peaceful, and talks on the dispute could continue, pending a final settlement, India and China should continue to deepen ties in other spheres. This framework lasted three decades. Other elements of the relationship — high-level visits, trade and investment, cooperation on global issues — coexisted with the stalemate on the border dispute.

But to keep the border peaceful, the two countries also signed a range of agreements. In 1996, a pact on confidence-building measures in the military field along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in border areas laid out a list of restrictions to reduce the possibility of a clash and build trust. It recognised that the implementation of the agreement would require both sides arriving at a “common understanding of the alignment” of LAC, and therefore, both India and China decided to speed up the process of “clarification and confirmation” of LAC — by clarifying the alignment in areas where there were differing perceptions, and then exchanging maps “indicating their respective perceptions”.

It has been 24 years since the pact. India is clear about where its perception of LAC lies. It has repeatedly asked Beijing to clarify its perception of LAC and exchange maps. This will not be a solution — but it will at least prevent Beijing from shifting goalposts at will, and engaging in aggression to change facts on the ground. But perhaps precisely because it wants to keep that option open, China has been obstinate in not moving ahead with the process of clarifying LAC, especially in the western sector. So here is the fix. A longer term boundary solution is difficult because of the seemingly intractable nature of the dispute, especially Tawang (China will not get it back, but will keep alive its claim because of its past association with Tibet) and Aksai Chin (India will not get it back, but accepting that publicly will have costs). And China is not willing to do what is required for shorter term peace — by clarifying LAC. This leaves room for doubt about Chinese intentions, and its claims of wanting peace. If Beijing is interested in sustaining the overall relationship, it should clarify the LAC, be reasonable about its claims and live up to past agreements. Otherwise, the old framework of the relationship cannot last.

 


To deal with China, focus solely on economic growth | Opinion

India needs to want economic success as badly as China does. If this desire is too mitigated by its desire to address many other issues such as retribution for past injustices, regional or linguistic reaffirmation, or fears about elite domination, the country may fall short of its optimal economic potential

India needs to want economic success as badly as China does. If this desire is too mitigated by its desire to address many other issues such as retribution for past injustices, regional or linguistic reaffirmation, or fears about elite domination, the country may fall short of its optimal economic potential(AP)

Much has been written about China following the clash between Indian and Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley. These discussions have often suggested that the Indian corporate sector should in some way exact retribution on China. The government has, perhaps, with some merit, banned a number of Chinese apps. Others have encouraged consumers to boycott Chinese goods. Neither address the basic issue that needs to be fixed, which was more accurately pinpointed by in jest by a senior Chinese media figure.

This gentleman commented that an economic dispute with China was farcical because there were no Indian goods that the Chinese could boycott. There is a deep resonance in this satirical remark. No mechanism to strengthen India’s influence with respect to China can be created without a unidimensional determination to become an economic superpower. There are choices to be made.

India must also, as China has done, build up financial reserves through the creation of industrial powerhouse companies. This requires a combination of cheap financing for domestic companies and possibly a devalued currency. India must substitute the mental hang-ups that have prevented it from systematically adopting these practices if it is to gain greater economic relevance.

Since great economic institutions require capital, we need to relook at the ease of business processes which attract capital. In the case of China, local governments have been incentivised to run their provinces in the manner most likely to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). Those who have done business in China speak of the overwhelming support they get from local governments. These include the identification of land, provision of ready lists of architects and contractors, free legal services, often to the point of providing dosa makers to encourage engineers to work there. The nature of factory inspections tends to be infrequent in contrast to the Indian licence-permit raj.

International capital has choices and will naturally flow where it is made most welcome. China is simply easier to do business in. India has followed a different growth path. That path influences how vigorously we can respond to Galwan.

Building economic powerhouses can also mean supporting national champion companies, as Japan and South Korea have done. India has been beset by concerns that such choices are prone to nepotism and the misuse of scarce national resources. It needs to enquire why these negative externalities of national choice were not equally applicable in Japan and South Korea. Even the United States (US), portrayed as a champion of market freedom, selectively awarded contracts for European/Iraqi reconstruction to a handful of chosen American companies. These policies did not result in the preferred companies falling to the lowest common denominator of quality. Instead, they often became world leaders in their chosen industries.

China has systematically sought to develop its soft power through investment, aid to countries, influence over multilateral institutions and the provision of research funding to universities around the world. It has chosen to be the driver behind the creation of banking institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank. While these banks or universities are all professionally-managed institutions, such largesse provides China with a degree of soft influence that others do not possess. Most meaningful infrastructure in Africa is today built by China with quid pro quos in play. These include preferential access to manganese, cobalt and other rare earth metals. China should not be blamed for this, as it is only copying the playbook used by European nations earlier. India is free to also make these choices. We need to introspect why, for instance, Indian apps could not become the world standard.

An argument may be made that in a democratic country, other policy choices are also important. Social justice has its place and economic growth cannot be the sole criteria for decision-making. These choices are not mutually exclusive or unique to us. It is India’s resistance to common sense reforms in labour, land or judicial processes has also led to an attenuation of economic wealth and the concomitant inability to push back against China.

India needs to want economic success as badly as China does. If this desire is too mitigated by its desire to address many other issues such as retribution for past injustices, regional or linguistic reaffirmation, or fears about elite domination, the country may fall short of its optimal economic potential.

At a philosophical level, it is entirely possible for a country to be successful and satisfied, with the kind of balance India has apparently sought, between being a mid-level economic power while also a disorganised democracy. However, in a world where the metric of power is largely Gross Domestic Product per capita, such a nation will need to accept a position of lesser influence. These choices can cause the angst of seeing others whom we may consider the “bad guys” finishing first. This government, more than others in the past, believes in an aligned pan-national vision around a common goal. This dispute with China provides an opportunity for policymakers to introspect about the choices we have made, as a nation. The road to victory in Galwan runs through the choices made in bureaucracy, the judicial system and the legislature.


US backs ASEAN on South China Sea, challenges China’s predatory world view

The US statement comes after Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his July 3 Ladakh speech made it clear that there was no space for expansionist regimes.

The US statement comes after Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his July 3 Ladakh speech made it clear that there was no space for expansionist regimes.(Reuters File Photo)

By calling China’s claims to off-shore resources in South China Sea (SCS) unlawful and championing a “free and open Indo-Pacific”, the United States has reversed its perceived “isolationist” policy and has reaffirmed its strong commitment to its ASEAN partners and key allies Japan and Australia.

The statement on “US Position on Maritime Claims in South China Sea” by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo comes at a time when two US nuclear powered aircraft carriers – Nimitz and Ronald Reagan – with 120 fighters are exercising in South China Sea. The two super carriers are openly challenging the unproven might of PLA Navy by exercising near Paracel Islands off the Vietnam coast and north of Chinese nuclear submarine base at Hainan Islands.

Secretary of State Pompeo’s statement is not only a demonstration of enormous political will of US to stand by its allies in Indo-Pacific region but also reinforcement of SCS frontline. “The statement has turned the perception that Trump administration was only inward looking and isolationist on its head. By spelling out its SCS position in black and white, it is a doctrinal recommitment from the American side to this region. It indicates that US is standing firmly with its allies like Philippines and Vietnam and recognising the claims of Indonesia and Malaysia against Chinese bullying in the area,” said a China watcher.

The US statement that Xi Jinping’s predatory world view has no place in 21st century comes after Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his July 3 Ladakh speech made it clear that there was no space for expansionist regimes and future only belonged to those who believed in development. The Indian position of free and open South China Sea also synergises with Secretary Pompeo’s statement on Indo-Pacific.

India is expected to expand on its view about right to free navigation when Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte visits New Delhi later this year as his March trip had to be postponed due to coronavirus global pandemic.

The US statement has revived the Arbitration Tribunal at Hague rejection of China’s SCS claims on July 12, 2016. To remind China of its hubris, Secretary Pompeo has recalled a 2010 statement of then Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, who told his ASEAN counterparts that it was a fact that China is a big country and others are just small.

The US has openly taken sides with Philippines on Scarborough Reef, Spratly Islands, Mischief Reef and second Thomas Shoal and called the Chinese claims unlawful and unilateral. The Chinese PLA has virtually declared the SCS as its backyard by contesting claims with ASEAN countries and exploiting the exclusive economic zone by simply bullying these countries militarily into submission. Beijing has also used its closeness with Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar to ensure nothing adverse comes out against China in the so-called Asian tiger forum.

Secretary Pompeo has totally rejected China’s claim over James Shoal near Malaysia and made it clear that the world will not allow Beijing to treat South China Sea as its maritime empire.

The US SCS statement has not only challenged China but also given steel injection of support to countries like Japan, Australia and South Korea, who haver decided to look the other way to Beijing’s expansion in the past.


Centre gives in-principle approval for tunnel under the Brahmaputra amid tension with China: Report

The proposed tunnel in India is going to be very important strategically as it will provide year-long connectivity between Assam and Arunachal Pradesh

India inaugurated the crucial Bogibeel bridge on the Brahmaputra in 2018 to improve connectivity.

India inaugurated the crucial Bogibeel bridge on the Brahmaputra in 2018 to improve connectivity.(PTI File Photo)

The Centre has given in-principle approval to construct a strategic tunnel under the Brahmaputra river, Hindustan Times’ sister publication Hindustan reported. The four-lane tunnel will link Gohpur and Numaligarh towns in Assam.

This is the first time that India will be constructing an under-river tunnel, Hindustan reported and it will close to the Chinese border. It will be longer than the under water tunnel being built by China below the Taihu Lake in Jiangsu province, it further reported.

The proposed tunnel in India is going to be very important strategically as it will provide year-long connectivity between Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. It will also help in transporting military supplies and ammunition as vehicles will be able to zoom past the tunnel at 80 kmph, Hindustan reported.

The National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corporation Limited (NHAIDCL) has roped in America’s Louis Berger company; in fact, the central government had approved its detailed project report in March, reported Hindustan.

It quoted a senior official of NHAIDCL to say that the construction of the 14.85 km long tunnel will begin in December. It will be built in three phases, Hindustan further reported.

The official further told Hindustan that the tunnel in China’s Jiangsu province will be 10.79 km long. He also said that various strong safety measures have been put in place in the design to stop water from entering the tunnel.

It will also have ventilation system, fire-fighting mechanism, footpath, drainage system, emergency exit etc, according to Hindustan. It will also be equipped with crash barriers.

The Army had asked the government to consider building tunnels akin to the English Channel under the Brahmaputra because bridges can be targeted by enemy forces.

This comes amid the tension between India and China along with Line of Actual Control (LAC) after a face-off between the soldiers of the two countries in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley. India had lost 20 soldiers in the skirmish; China officially did not announce the number of casualties.

Efforts have been on by both the countries since the June 15 clash to ease tensions. A fourth round of meeting between the Lieutenant Generals of the two countries is scheduled to take place today.


2008 फ़ील्ड मार्शल मानेक शॉ वेलिंगटन (तमिलनाडु) अस्पताल में भर्ती थे। गंभीर अस्वस्थता और अर्धमूर्छा में वे एक नाम अक्सर लेते थे – “पागी-पागी !” डाक्टरों ने एक दिन पूछ दिया “सर हू इज़ दिस पागी ?”

और सैम साहब ने खुद ही ब्रीफ़ किया…..

1971 भारत युद्ध जीत चुका था, जनरल मानेक शॉ ढाका में थे। आदेश दिया कि पागी को बुलवाओ, डिनर आज उसके साथ करूँगा ! हेलिकॉप्टर भेजा गया। हेलिकॉप्टर पर सवार होते समय पागी की एक थैली नीचे रह गई, जिसे उठाने के लिए हेलिकॉप्टर वापस उतारा गया था। अधिकारियों ने नियमानुसार हेलिकॉप्टर में रखने से पहले थैली खोल कर देखी तो दंग रह गए, क्योंकि उसमें दो रोटी, प्याज और बेसन का एक पकवान (गाठिया) भर था। डिनर में एक रोटी सैम साहब ने खाई और दूसरी पागी ने।

• उत्तर गुजरात के सुईगांव अंतरराष्ट्रीय सीमा क्षेत्र की एक बॉर्डर पोस्ट को रणछोड़दास पोस्ट नाम दिया गया। यह पहली बार हुआ कि किसी आम आदमी के नाम पर सेना की कोई पोस्ट हो साथ ही उनकी मूर्ति भी लगाई गई।

पागी यानी ‘मार्गदर्शक’, वो व्यक्ति जो रेगिस्तान में रास्ता दिखाए । ‘रणछोड़दास रबारी’ को जनरल सैम मानिक शॉ इसी नाम से बुलाते थे।

• गुजरात के बनासकांठा ज़िले के पाकिस्तान सीमा से सटे गाँव पेथापुर गथड़ों के थे रणछोडदास। भेड़ बकरी व ऊँट पालन का काम करते थे। जीवन में बदलाव तब आया जब उन्हें 58 वर्ष की आयु में बनासकांठा के पुलिस अधीक्षक वनराज सिंह झाला ने उन्हें पुलिस के मार्गदर्शक के रूप में रख लिया।

• हुनर इतना कि ऊँट के पैरों के निशान देख कर बता देते थे कि उस पर कितने आदमी सवार हैं। इंसानी पैरों के निशान देख कर वजन से लेकर उम्र तक का अंदाज़ा लगा लेते थे। कितने देर पहले का निशान है और कितनी दूर तक गया होगा सब एकदम सटीक आंकलन जैसे कोई कम्प्यूटर गणना कर रहा हो।

• 1965 युद्ध की शुरुआत में पाकिस्तान सेना ने भारत के गुजरात में कच्छ सीमा स्थित विधकोट पर कब्ज़ा कर लिया, इस मुठभेड़ में लगभग 100 भारतीय सैनिक शहीद ही गये थे और भारतीय सेना की एक 10 हजार सैनिकों वाली टुकड़ी को तीन दिन में छारकोट पहुँचना जरूरी था। तब ज़रूरत पड़ी थी पहली बार रणछोडदास पागी की ! रेगिस्तानी रास्तों पर अपनी पकड़ की बदौलत उन्होंने सेना को तय समय से 12 घंटे पहले मंज़िल तक पहुँचा दिया था । सेना के मार्गदर्शन के लिए उन्हें सैम साहब ने खुद चुना था और सेना में एक विशेष पद सृजित किया गया था ‘पागी’ याने पग अथवा पैरों का जानकार।

• भारतीय सीमा में छिपे 1200 पाकिस्तानी सैनिकों की लोकेशन और अनुमानित संख्या सिर्फ़ उनके पदचिह्नों से पता कर भारतीय सेना को बता दी थी, और इतना काफ़ी था भारतीय सेना के लिए वो मोर्चा फतेह करने के लिए।

• 1971 युद्ध में सेना के मार्गदर्शन के साथ साथ अग्रिम मोर्चे तक गोला बारूद पहुँचवाना भी पागी के काम का हिस्सा था। पाकिस्तान के पालीनगर शहर पर जो भारतीय तिरंगा फहरा था उस जीत में पागी की भूमिका अहम थी। सैम साब ने स्वयं ३०० रूपय का नक़द पुरस्कार अपनी जेब से दिया था।

• पागी को तीन सम्मान भी मिले 65 व 71 युद्ध में उनके योगदान के लिए – संग्राम पदक, पुलिस पदक व समर सेवा पदक !

• 27 जून 2008 को सैम मानिक शॉ की मृत्यु हुई और 2009 में पागी ने भी सेना से ‘स्वैच्छिक सेवानिवृत्ति’ ले ली। तब पागी की उम्र 108 वर्ष थी ! जी हाँ आपने सही पढ़ा….. 108 वर्ष की उम्र में ‘स्वैच्छिक सेवानिवृत्ति’ ! सन् 2013 में 112 वर्ष की आयु में पागी का निधन हो गया

• अब भी वे गुजराती लोकगीतों का हिस्सा हैं। उनकी शौर्य गाथाएँ युगों तक गाई जाएंगी। अपनी देशभक्ति, वीरता, बहादुरी, त्याग, समर्पण और शालीनता के कारण भारतीय सैन्य इतिहास में हमेशा के लिए अमर हो गए रणछोड़दास रबारी यानि हमारे ‘पागी’।

 

What China Might Be Aiming For In Ladakh?

The tensions on Indo-China border is increasing day by day. Both armies are facing eyeball to eyeball. They are backed with infantry, tanks, armored vehicles and air defense. It is not at all a good situation to face both the militaries in a combat ready mode. Defense experts have rightly pointed out that a small local angry incidence can flareup the battleground.
But the question is, why China is picking up this quarrel with India, knowing it will be very difficult to grab any more disputed land on LAC using force. 2020 India is not 1962 India to be humiliated. Indian armed forces are very well prepared to give a befitting answer to China.

China is also facing hostile situation on its South and South East side. American aircraft carriers are patrolling South China sea. China is having a big problem going on in Hong Kong plus it has picked up fight with Taiwan. Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea and Vietnam. They too are rattled with China’s expansionary policy.
When China is having problems on all its borders then why is it showing hostile posture with India? If the conflict really breaks out then China has more to lose than India. China has already earned bad reputation due to Chinese Virus (COVID19) and a war with India will isolate China internationally.
This is important to note, after 1962 war till now, China had highlighted border disputes on the North East border of India. They have raised objection about Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalay and Sikkim. They have never picked up a border dispute in the plains of Ladakh after 1962. But now they are picking up a fight in Ladakh….WHY?

Challenges on the of J&K border

Before we analyze WHY China is picking up fight in Ladakh, let’s first understand how the map has changed since 1947 between India, Pakistan and China in the Jammu & Kashmir region.

Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK)

in 1947 entire princely state of Jammu and Kashmir was part of India. This included Jammu, Kashmir valley, Ladakh, Gilgit Baltistan and Aksai Chin regions.
When Pakistan attacked India in 1947 and illegally occupied part of Kashmir, they snatched two parts of J& K, that is, very small portion of Kashmir valley and big mass of land of Gilgit Baltistan. India was left with Jammu, remaining part of Kashmir valley, Ladakh and Aksai Chin regions. The area marked as “Pakistan Administered Kashmir” is what Pakistan forcefully occupied in 1947.

Illegal occupation Aksai Chin

Then in 1950 China started building a road inside Aksai Chin w/o India’s permission. They wanted to grab Tibet and access to Tibet from mainland China is very difficult due to mountain ranges. Hence they started illegally occupying Aksai Chin to build roads to go to Tibet. This construction activity started in 1950, but was never detected by Indian military till 1957.
By the time it was detected, it was too late and Nehru ceded Aksai Chin to China saying, that land is useless because it is a cold desert and cannot grow even a single leaf of grass! But obviously Nehru missed the geographic importance of Aksai Chin. He surrendered to the Chinese bullying. He thought, his socialistic ideologue friend China would stop by taking Aksai Chin. But that was not China’s aim. They wanted Tibet and that is why they occupied Aksai Chin.

China’s forceful occupation of Tibet

Nehru realized China’s real intentions when China attacked Tibet, but by then it was very late. In 1962 India was dragged into a  war with China without military preparation. Nehru was not a firm, resolute and dynamic leader to lead this war. This fact has recorded by number of military experts and diplomatic experts. The moment he realized well prepared Chinese military is getting heavy on ill prepared Indian military, he started giving conflicting signals to the Indian military. As a result, Indian military faced heavy human losses and this demoralized the military. The situation was so grim that Chinese forces were about to enter Assam and Nehru had mentally accepted to give away Assam to stop Chinese forces.
By that time US had sent its forces to support India. China was aware about it and thus unilaterally declared ceasefire before US forces could reach India. They retained the hold on Tibet but vacated other captured parts of India. India was  defeated and humiliated by China in the war. As a result, India lost Aksai Chin and Tibet, both.

Pakistan’s gift of Shaksam Valley to China

After 1962 China war, Pakistan became more closer to China. Pakistan was always fearing that, one day or the other India will attack Kashmir Valley and reclaim PoK. To mitigate this risk, in 1963 Pakistan donated part of Kashmir to China. This part is marked in the map as “Shaksam Valley“. Pakistan thought that if China is made party into the Kashmir dispute then India cannot do anything as India cannot challenge China!!! This is how, China got foothold in Kashmir valley.

Strategic Importance of Siachin Glacier

If you see the map, there is a very small triangular portion that is between Shaksam Valley and Aksai Chin. This is Siachin Glacier. This small portion of Siachin Glacier is separating two Chinese illegal occupation, that is, Askai Chin and Shaksam Valley. If Siachin Glacier peaks are occupied either by China or by Pakistan then Kashmir valley would firmly connect with China mainland.
It is strategically so important that the whoever controls the peaks of Siachin Glacier, they would practically control activities happening in mainland China, Aksai Chin, Shaksam Valley and Pakistan’s PoK.
The Karokoram highway that connects China with Pakistan through road, passed through Siachin Glacier. Karakoram pass, which is one of the oldest trade route is also in the same region. The Karakoram Highway is so close to the Siachin Glacier peaks that normal machine gun fire can block the road. Hence it is a big threat to China and Pakistan.
Siachin Glacier is a very inhabitable, mountainous and rugged terrine, where living is not possible. This area is always covered with snow, freezing temperatures less than -30 degree Celsius, unpredictable winter storms and huge avalanches.  Due to these reasons, no one between Pakistan, China and India had claimed this region till 1984. It was practically no man’s land because all parties thought, it is impossible hold on to the occupation.
But this changed in 1984 when India captured Siachin Glacier and fortified it’s military position. After capturing, India fought number of battles with Pakistani army who tried to capture it back but they failed. Since then, Siachin Glacier is firmly controlled by Indian Army. Pakistani still wants to capture this region for the obvious strategic importance.
India has not only fortified all the mountain top ranges in the Siachin Glacier but even made the Daulat Beg Oldie Air Force base fully operational. This base is situated at 5.1 Kilo Meters height and temperatures are below -30 degree Celsius. Please see the map of Daulat Beg Oldie base to understand its strategic importance.
It is located at a very strategic point to cover China occupied Shaksam Valley, Aksai Chin, Mainland China and Pakistan occupied POK. From this air field Indian Air Force can attack deep inside Pakistan and China. The only challenge is, because of the height, IAF fighter planes have some limitations on carrying fuel and weapons. But that is a different topic to discuss.

China’s financial interests in this region…

China had built Karakoram highway long back to connect Pakistan with China by road. This is their old trade route but it is very long and treacherous route. Plus it was not connecting to any seaports in Pakistan.
China’s crude oil supply from Arab countries and Africa is through oil tankers that travel from Arabian Sea, circling Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Indonesia, then into South China Sea and finally into China.
As you can see this route is very long and expensive to get crude oil into China. It is also expensive and time consuming to supply Chinese goods to the West Asia.  Every country needs cheap oil for its economic growth. High transportation cost for oil was hampering China’s economic growth plans. Hence they came up with Silk Routes and One Belt One Way policy. This plan is to connect 70 countries for the trade purpose.
As a part of this policy, China started China Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC initiative. Under this plan, China developed port of Gawader in Pakistan for oil pumping. Then created multiple highways inside Pakistan to link East, Central and West Pakistan. All these highways lead to one highway into Gilgit Baltistan. The plan is, get oil from Arab countries in tankers to Gawadar port and transport it to China using CPEC road. The bigger plan is to create pipelines from Gawadar port till China along the CPEC road.
Please see the map below to understand CPEC route and its use of Gilgit Baltistan.
China has invested more than 80 Billion dollars of its own money plus given 50 Billion dollars loan to Pakistan. This huge investment has so far not given tangible results to China due to variety of reasons. Hence China is risking losing 140 Billion dollars investment plus loss of opportunity.
On top of it, India has protested with China and Pakistan for illegally using Gilgit Baltistan area for CPEC. This is because, India claims entire princely state of J&K that joined India in 1947, is legally owned by it. India plans to reclaim this illegally occupied land from Pakistan and China.
And…this is where the current problem is.
 

China’s fear…

China is fearing, if India really reclaims Kashmir Valley, Gilgit Baltistan from Pakistan and reclaims Shaksham Valley and Aksai Chin from China then it will be a big jolt for China’s CPEC plans.
It will be cut off from Pakistan completely and thereby with Arab countries and African countries. This will disrupt their oil supply and goods trade route with West Asia. And on top of it, if India blocks sea route for Chinese ships in Arabian Sea then it will face huge problem.
It is because of this fear, China is showing aggression in Ladakh. China and Pakistan feels that if India is challenged on two fronts then India will not dare to reclaim POK and Gilgit Baltistan. They both want to grab more land of India so that their CPEC road connection is not threatened.

China and Pakistan’s Military Game Plan…

Look at the map where there is a current military conflict with China in Ladakh region.
The current conflict sites are;
1) Galwan Valley
2) Hot Springs
3) Pangong Lake
My estimate is, these hot spots are just the decoy. China and Pakistan wants India to look some other way so that they can achieve their goal.
I strongly think, the plan is something like this.
Pakistan and China wants to capture some more land of Ladakh, cut off Siachin Glacier and create a rock solid, wide connection between China and Pakistan.
Please see the map below to understand what may happen.
The military plan of China and Pakistan might be as follows.
Pakistan will attack Ladakh from Gilgit Baltistan.
China will attack Ladakh from Aksai Chin.
Both these forces would capture the portion of Ladakh; that could be in one of the three ways shown above (depicted in three colors).
The aim would be to cut off Siachin Glacier from India thereby ending India’s threat to China, Pakistan and CPEC from the peaks of Siachin Glacier.
Grabbing the land around Siachin Glacier would join Pakistan with China with solid mass of land and then, India cannot threaten Pakistan to reclaim PoK and Gilgit Baltistan.
This is the reason why Pakistan has moved its infantry in Gilgit Baltistan region instead of PoK. This is the reason why China is not ready to take back its forces from the three hot spots.
China may agree on the negotiating table to take back its forces from the three hot spots but in reality it will never pull back. China is known for such treacherous behavior and should never be trusted. They played the same game of negotiations with India in 1962. This time too, they will attack India when both Pakistan and China are ready to attack. Till then China will continue to come to the negotiating table with a statement for “peace”.

Conclusion….

India must be prepared to fight a big bloody war with China and Pakistan simultaneously.
China may open another front in the North East region of India to stretch India’s fighting forces.

Pakistan may open another front on India’s western border to further stretch Indian forces.

Pakistan may try to infiltrate terrorists in Kashmir Valley and start internal disturbances.
The war may start by August and take a very dirty turn. As they say, you can decide when to start the war but you cannot decide when to stop. Hence end date is not known.
Indians must get prepared…

VETERANS PLEASE TAKE NOTE OF THESE 51 POINTS WHICH ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO KNOW FOR EACH AND EVERY VETERANS

DEAR VETERANS PLEASE TAKE NOTE OF THESE 51 POINTS  WHICH ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO KNOW FOR EACH AND EVERY VETERANS ………………..
Dear Veteran Brothers
Please update yourself….!!
1. Fixed Medical Allowance @ Rs.100 was introduced w.e.f. 01.12.1997.
2.Fixed Medical Allowance @ Rs.1000 was increased w.e.f. 01.07.2017.
3. ECHS members not eligible for Medical Allowance.
4. ECHS facility is now extended to the dependents of ex-recruits boarded out are drawing Disability pension.
5. ECHS made compulsory for those discharged after 01.04.2003.
6. There is no fee for pre 1.1.96 pensioners to join this scheme.
7. From 1.1.96 to 31.3.2003 they have to pay to join this scheme.
8. From 29.12.2017 the rates have been increased. (From Recruit to Hav rank Rs. 30,000, From Nb.Sub. to Hon.Capt and Equivalents. Rs.67000 & for all Officers Rs.1,20,000)
9. If you are having 32 KB individual white card, you can use up to Dec 2020.
10. If you are having Temporary ECHS slip, you have to apply for NEW Card.
11. If you have lost your ECHS card, you have to apply on line for new card.
12. If you are a member of ECHS make sure that you are not paid Fixed Medical Allowance.  If you are paid, wirte a letter to the bank to stop it, otherwise your ECHS Card will be suspended.
13. War disabled pensioners & widows are exempted from paying ECHS contribution.
14. If you are having old 16Kb (Red colour combined card), you have to change it before Sep 2018.
15. Keep note of your PPO No and always give your particulars like Rank, Group, Qualifying Service and date of birth in case of any query.
16. Always keep your pension account jointly with your Spouse. (E or S or F or S basis)
17. All family pensioners must give nomination to their pension accounts.
18.Update your pass book entries regularly.
19. Collect Pension slip from bank every month and keep it safe.
20. Link your Aadhaar Number and PAN number with your Pension account.
21. Name of your spouse in the PPO and in the Bank account must be same.
22. If your and your spouse date of birth is not with your Bank, please submit your school certificate, Aadhaar card, PAN Card, Voter ID to the Bank for recording your Date of Birth.
23. Do not forget to give Life Certificate to the Bank in November every year.
24. All Pre 1.4.1985 pensioners must make sure that their Spouse name is there for family pension.  If not, apply for endorsement of family pension immediately through ZSB to your Records office.
25. All pre 1.4.1985 pensioners, who do not have pension book or PPO copy, please apply to bank and get a copy
26. If a pensioner dies before the age of 67,his spouse should get the same pension as her husband.  From the date of death till the deceased attains age of 67 or for 7 Years whichever falls early.
27. The pensioners who completed 80 years of age are eligible to get 20% increase in their basic pension as additional pension.  If you are not getting, you have to apply to the bank with the proof of date of birth.
28. EPF Pension in addition to Defence Pension Family pension allowed w.e.f. 27.07.2001
29. ESM can draw two pensions separately without any ceiling w.e.f. 01.01.1996.
30. DR. for re-employed ex-servicemen with some conditions w.e.f. 18.07.1997.
31. DR. is admissible to employed family pensioners without any condition w.e.f. 18.07.1997.
32. Minimum Ordinary Family Pension as per 7th CPC  is Rs.9,000+ DR  w.e.f. 01.01.2016.
33. Minimum Special Family Pension as per 7th CPC is Rs. 17,990 w.e.f. 01.01.2016.
34. Compensation for Delayed payment of Pension/Arrears to be paid w.e.f. 01.10.2008.
35. Improvement in pension for ORs & JCOs as per CDA Circular 430 w.e.f. 01.07.2009.
36. Additional pension is payable after 80 years on both the pensions, if any one drawing two pensions.
37. Additional pension is applicable for WIP/Disability Pension/Lib.FP & SFP.
38. Joint notification of family pension was introduced from 01.03.1985.  Those who do not have    joint notification for family pension, they have to apply immediately.
39. Dual family pension is payable from 24.9.2012. as per CDA Cir.504 dt.17.01.2013.  The families of ESM who were drawing two pensions and died before 24.9.2012 were denied dual family pension at that time.  As per CDA Cir.504, they are eligible for two family pensions.
40. W.E.F. 01.07.2009 the concept of Broad banding of percentage of disability/War injury Shall be extended to Armed Forces Pensioners who were invalided out of service prior to 01.01.1996 and are in receipt of disability/war injury pension as on 01.07.2009.
41.Broadbanding for all pensioners is applicable wef 01.01.2016(Circular 596)
42. The Cap on maximum WIP i.e. not to exceed emoluments last drawn has been removed w,e,f, 01.07.2009.
43. Liberalised family pension came into existence from 01.02.1972.
44. If you are having disabled children, unmarried daughters, widowed daughters, you must apply for Part II order (POR) for pension benefits on later dates.
45. Always check your pension with your Rank, Group, Qualifying service and date of birth.
46. Apply for financial assistance for disabled children from  KSB if you are not getting from anywhere.
47. If you have lost your ESM ID Card, you have to apply for duplicate from Zilla Sainik Board.
48.Your full date of birth must be recorded in your Aadhaar Card.  Your mobile number also to be linked to your Aadhaar card.  Visit Aadhaar permanent enrolment centre for any change.Nowadays banks are also entrusted to be Aadhaar enrolment centre.
49. ADLR Scheme Funeral Grant Rs.10,000 w.e.f. 08/07/2016. Paid by Canteen.
50.Zilla Sainik Board pays Rs.5000 funeral grant.
51. Dignified Last Rites grant from Army/Navy/Airforce HQs amount differs.
Note:- There are many more to know shall keep updating.
KNOW YOUR DUES AND RIGHTS

Manish Tewari | Study Ancient China to learn to tackle Beijing

In 1839, China declared war on drugs by impounding over 1,000 tons of opium from British dealers in Canton (modern Guangzhou)

One of the myths that China has sedulously perpetrated about its current pugnaciousness with its neighbours is the ‘century of humiliation’ that it ostensibly endured from the commencement of the First Opium War in 1839 till the establishment of the communist state in 1949.

Xi Jinping, while speaking at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, in 2017 bemoaned the fact that Ancient China, once a great empire, was plumbed into the dimness of domestic turmoil by foreign aggression. Its prosperous people were reduced to penury, torn asunder, and compelled to subsist in destitution and despondency for over 100 years.

A bit of history may just be in order. China’s Ming Dynasty (1368-1644) actively engaged the outside world.  It dispatched huge maritime fleets on expeditions across Asia and right down to the coast of Africa.

However, Ming China later retreated into seclusion for two centuries. Consequently, it missed the great intellectual renaissance and industrialisation that swept Europe and later the America’s.

In 1839, China declared war on drugs by impounding over 1,000 tons of opium from British dealers in Canton (modern Guangzhou). The British drug cartels pressured London into demanding that Beijing recompense them the full street value of these narcotics.

The Chinese emperor naturally snubbed this egregious extortion attempt. In 1840, British warships laid many Chinese coastal towns to waste. British troops slaughtered even non-combatants along the coastline. Thus, commenced the First Opium War.

British traders were also flustered as a grave trade imbalance subsisted between the Qing China and Great Britain due to the latter’s astronomical demands for tea, porcelain, and silk. Tea import alone amounted to over 23 million pounds in 1800.

The annual tab was 3.6 million pounds paid in silver. To offset this imbalance, the British started pushing opium into China that they sourced from India. With their defeat in the First Opium War, the Chinese were compelled to cede Hong Kong to the British and open five other treaty ports to international trade.

They soon had to offer the same terms to the other western imperialists.
During the Second Opium War in 1860, the British chastened the Chinese by raising Beijing’s Summer Palace to the ground.

The ruthless pillage of the palace that contained a gargantuan number of priceless artifacts was to psychologically bludgeon the Chinese into submission.

The decades that followed seared the Chinese ego further. China lost one third of of its territory to invasions  and tens of millions Chinese perished in internal conflict. The second World War left another thirty-five million Chinese dead.

Many scholars hold that the Chinese Communist Party has cynically perpetuated the ‘shame’ narrative to subserve its own ends.

However, the fact is that this ignominy was painfully felt even by the Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek, who inscribed the words ‘avenge humiliation’ on every page of his diary for twenty long years.

Therefore, a failure to discern how central the spectre of humiliation is to the whole idea of modern China would entail making strategic and tactical miscalculations.

However, no country can base its present on historical injustices and humiliations, howsoever traumatic they might have been. If China suffered one hundred years of humiliation at the hands of Western imperialists, India experienced 1300 years of dishonour at the hands of foreign invaders, beginning with Muhammad bin Qasim in 705 AD and ending with the British in 1947.

Can or should this become India’s raison d’être in its dealings with its neighbours? The answer is no. India has not even been vociferous in demanding reparations from the British for 200 years of rapaciousness if you take the Battle of Plassey in 1957 as the inflection point.

China needs to come out of its persecution complex. There is another problem of how China perceives itself vis-à-vis India. From 1911 to 1949, China went through a murderous civil war and a brutal conflict with the Japanese before the ‘Communist Shangri-La’ could be established.

Subsequently, it went through the murderous experiments of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural revolution.

Conversely, the establishment of a liberal democracy in India was a relatively less bloody experience. It perhaps makes Chinese strategic planners wrongly assume that they are more resilient as a people in terms of their ability to take punishment as compared to us.

It often makes me wonder what would have been the trajectory of our liberation movement if our overlords were the Japanese rather than the British. Imperial Japan was the most tyrannical power in the first 45 years of the 20th century before two atom bombs tamed them. However, we shall leave that for another day.

Returning to the present: Are there any lessons that we need to draw from China’s self-flagellation narrative to fine tune our border strategy? The foremost is that even a weak China did not except the British overtures in 1899 when C M McDonald attempted to delineate India’s northern and China’s western border respectively.

In 1913, they refused to sign off on the McMahon Line at the Simla Conference. From the Chinese point of view, the borders have remained fuzzy for over a century now. They have the patience to play the long game. We must be tenacious enough to go toe to toe and nose to nose.

In 1993, an attempt was made in the Sino-Indian Peace and Tranquility agreement to establish the concept of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Its non-delineation on the map and non-demarcation on the ground, however, has rendered it virtually useless today.

How then would this impasse substantively end even if the Corps Commander-level talks are temporarily able to arrive at a modus vivendi? It would only recede when the Chinese are made to realize by a concert of Asian powers that there will be no Middle Kingdom in the 21st Century. China cannot rise alone.

The author is a lawyer, Member of Parliament and former Union information and broadcasting minister. The views expressed are personal. Twitter handle @manishtewari


PM Modi’s visit to his village Nimo, comforts 1962 war veteran

NIMO/LEH:In a quaint little village with tall poplars swinging gently in the summer bloom against the bare lofty mountains, 1962 war veteran Tsering Tashi giggles with exuberance over the thought that Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited his village just a week ago.

“I did not know that he, the Prime Minister of India, was right here in my village, talking to soldiers. Got to know after he left, ” Tashi laughs.

Tashi quickly adds, “His visit to Nimo was really required. It has boosted the morale of our soldiers. He could not have gone to the forward posts but it was very good that he gave a speech here. It uplifted the spirits of the soldiers. I think the Army is happy too.”

The Prime Minister’s visit to Nimo, after India lost 20 soldiers, including a Colonel on June 15 during a violent clash with Chinese troops, has a deep significance for the 80-year-old Tashi.

Even 58 years after India’s defeat in the 1962 war with China, the regret and grief has not faded from the Havildar’s voice as he recalls how India lost the war and territory to the Chinese.

Describing the then Chinese premier Zhou Enlai’s approach to India, prior to the 1962 war, “Muh mein Ram Ram, bhagal mein chhuri” (stabbing someone in the back), Tashi drifts into the memory lane when he had joined the Army in 1959 as a young soldier.

“The war began at night around 1 a.m. (October 20, 1962). Both India and China used to have military posts near DBO (Daulat Beg Oldi), one of the world’s highest airstrip at an altitude of over 16, 600 feet.

“We used to patrol on foot; the Chinese on horses. Our vehicles could not reach our posts but theirs did. They had outnumbered us. We were very few.

“There were only two units of Army at the time — one was at Chushul and the other at DBO. So we airlifted our soldiers of Jat regiment from Pathankot, direct to the DBO airstrip, ” Tashi recalls.

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had assaulted Indian military posts in Chip Chap valley, Galwan valley and Pangong lake and other numerous small posts. The Chip Chap river flows to the south of Daulat Beg Oldi from east to west.

In October, winter is in full swing in Ladakh, and extremely harsh at high altitude areas like DBO. The temperature dips to freezing point.

“Our troops got no time to acclimatize but they chose to fight. Their hands froze; they lost their limbs. So we had to retreat, ” the war veteran says with a lump in his throat. He repeatedly mentions how the soldiers died in the cold.

As his wrinkles droop at the memory of that night, he remembers that the Army lost another 20 to 30 men at the nearby post. “They (People’s Liberation Army) took some of our soldiers prisoners of war too. One of them, however, escaped; don’t know how he came back, ” he says.

Around 2 a.m., Tashi went from DBO in a Shaktiman truck to bring more soldiers for support.

“I got 30 to 40 soldiers. But our vehicle got stuck in the snow in a frozen stream. Perhaps, our lives got saved because our vehicle got stuck. Once, we were able to move, it was already morning. Since we could see because of the morning light, our commandant was able to move us up the ridge a little bit. I was the guide. But by that time we got there, the PLA troops had occupied our side. So we had to withdraw, ” the ex-serviceman says.

Tashi remembers the martyrdom of Major Shaitan Singh, of the Kumaon Regiment, who had been instrumental in holding on to the Rezang La Ridge, which was important to prevent the airstrip from falling into the Chinese hands.

The 1962 war veteran, who retired from the Ladakh Scouts regiment of the Indian Army in 1975, however, brightens up at the mention of the 1971 war with Pakistan. “That is when we were able to regain Turtuk, Dhothang, Tyakshi and Chalunka of Chorbat valley, ” he says with a certain smugness.

By that time, he adds smilingly, “We had got new arms and weapons, the strength of our units had been hugely increased. We took their top strategic posts; both Pakistani Army and civilians had to flee.”

China, Tashi believes, cannot defeat India now.

“India is very strong. During our time, India was like dust on the ground but now its touching the skies. Now whatever our soldiers ask for, it is immediately fulfilled on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.”


IAF gets night-flying capability at Leh for MiG-29s, force sees it as a ‘game-changer’

Representational image of an IAF MiG-29 | Photo: Wikipedia

New Delhi: The Indian Air Force has acquired the capability to fly its MiG-29 fighters at night from its Leh base in the future, at a time when India and China are taking steps towards disengagement at the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh.

Sources in the IAF said the process of night-flying, which has already begun, would be a “game-changer” because training by night will strengthen its capability to conduct full-spectrum operations at the Line of Actual Control on short notice, given Leh’s proximity to the LAC.

The new capability is fuelled by upgrades to the MiG-29, including advanced avionics, and faster and more extensive training of IAF pilots among other factors.

Leh is not a permanent fighter base, but detachments of aircraft are sent there on a regular basis.

An IAF officer said the MiG-29s are carrying out extensive, round-the-clock flying from Leh, which will also help the force validate geospatial data to enhance its capabilities in night operations.

Fighters such as the Sukhoi Su-30s conduct night operations in the Leh and Ladakh regions, but they come from other bases that have night capabilities. Apache and Chinook helicopters also carry out night-time operations.


Also read: How IAF has played a critical role in the India-China stand-off at Ladakh

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Significance of the new capability

Senior IAF officers explained that in modern warfare, most operations are carried out at night, for two reasons.

“The first reason is that there are chances of the enemy being comparatively less alert during the night. Secondly, there is less chance of visual detection of the aircraft, which helps in surprising the enemy,” an IAF officer said.

An aircraft can be detected visually and by radars. Flying at night cuts down the visual spectrum of detection.

A second officer explained that Chinese airfields in the LAC region near Ladakh are at a higher altitude than Leh, and thus, their load carrying capacity is lower, while fighters operating from Leh airbase can have a higher load-carrying capacity.

“This gives India a strategic advantage too, both in day and night flying,” the second officer said.

A 2013 policy brief written by Air Marshal V.K. Bhatia on ‘Air Power Across the Himalayas: A Military Appreciation of Indian and Chinese Air Forces’ noted that if the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) was to operate from its well-established bases at Khotan, Kashgar, Golmud etc., it would have to operate from much greater distances to reach the IAF airfields, resulting in reduced payloads and possible requirement of in-flight refuelling etc.

Bhatia’s brief stated that the IAF could easily reach its airfield targets in Tibet from its main bases strung around the entire Indo-Tibetan boundary without any payload or other penalties.

However, an NDTV report said China had initiated massive construction activity at the high altitude Ngari Gunsa air base — a dual-use airport located at 14,022 feet altitude and serving the town of Shiquanhe, about 200 km from the Pangong lake.

Night flying in the mountains

IAF officers also explained why night flying is difficult in the mountains, as high altitude and rarefied air limit manoeuvrability and capability of an aircraft.

“The undulating and hazardous terrain and rapidly-changing weather conditions at such high altitude are fraught with risks,” an officer explained, adding that the “depth perception” is not there while flying at night. “Also, there is a delayed engine response at high altitudes.”

The officer added: “Take-off, landing and flying in the hills at night would require a combination of both visual flight rules and instrument flight rules, which is a skill set acquired by pilots with extensive training. This has been happening since the IAF has been preparing for a contingency.”


Also read: China ‘deploys’ S-400s, IAF has war gamed the scenario multiple times for air ops