What is being seen is a reverse trend. India too has gone for military build-up, expansion of logistic capabilities and troop mobilisation, including artillery, close to the LAC. As the Army moved battle tanks to remote points and created a mountain strike corps, a Chinese response was expected.

P Stobdan

Former Ambassador

Following the Galwan stand-off, India is sending massive reinforcements to fortify eastern Ladakh at places like Demchok, Dongti, Chumar, Daulat Beg Oldi and Galwan Valley. Out of the 857 square kilometre long border in Ladakh, only 368 square kilometer is international border (IB) and the rest of the 489 square kilometre is the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

The two traditionally disputed points included Trig Heights and Demchok. At eight points, the two sides have differing perceptions — Samar Lungpa, 176 sq km; Depsang Plains, 972 sq km; Hot Spring, 38 sq km; Changlung, 13 sq km; Kungkala-Phobrang, 5 sq km; Sarjap, 129 sq km; Spanguur, 24 sq km; and, Dhumtsele, 25 sq km.

China has raised additional points of dispute at Pangong Tso over an area of 83 square kilometre and at Chumur, where it claims 80 square kilometre .

Small incursions on an average of 250-300 times annually are common across the 3,488 km long de facto border, mostly in Ladakh, but it is rare for either country to set up camp so deep within the disputed territory. The Army’s spin has been that they are not intrusions, but transgressions that occur due to ‘differing interpretation of the border’. As Army chief General MM Naravane said, they are short duration standoffs that normally take place during the summer months when new units conduct familiarisation operation of winter-vacated posts, and are managed locally by a set mechanism.

India and China have several CBMs in place, including military hotlines to avoid face-offs along the LAC. The 2013 Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA) was to serve as a template to boost military interface and resolve incidents locally. China wanted LAC tensions not to affect bilateral ties, India wanted more ‘predictability’ for the ties to grow.

Clearly, these de-escalatory measures seem not to be working. This author had doubted whether the BDCA was not yet another deception and tactic of denial that followed the Depsang incursion.

Of the nine, only Article VI — not to tail each others’ patrols — was relevant for tackling real-time incidents. Article II related to the movement of nomadic herders. But the pact hasn’t stopped new incidents as China continued consolidating its presence in the disputed areas.

But the BDCA didn’t cover the risk arising from infrastructure upgrade. This author foresaw the risk of BDCA’s failure due to India’s rather belated zest to boost border infrastructure to match China.

What is being seen is a reverse trend in the de-militarisation process post-Depsang episode. India too has gone for military build-up, expansion of logistic capabilities and troop mobilisation, including artillery units, close to the LAC. As the Army moved battle tanks to remote border points and created a mountain strike corps, an equivalent Chinese response was anticipated. The Indian Air Force too reactivated its old airfields and advanced landing grounds (ALGs), landing C-130J-30 Super Hercules aircraft.

In fact, a shift in India adopting a more ‘assertive posturing’ to ‘interdict’ Chinese troops came in 2014. This led to increased frequency of face-offs from once or twice a month to almost daily. Having been used to browbeat the Indian Army in the past, the PLA is perhaps surprised by India’s swift counter build-up and firmness at the commander’s flag meetings. The area from Demchok up to Kailash and Lipulekh (Nepal tri-junction) was snatched from Ladakh by the 5th Dalai Lama in the 1650s.

Since the 1990s, the PLA followed in the Dalai Lama’s footsteps and encroached on the 45-kilometre long Skakjung pastureland (Demchok-Kuyul) sector where the nomad Changpas took Rebos for winter grazing. The area sustained 80,000 sheep/goats and 4,000 yak/ponies besides over 75,000 quintals of dry forage tama worth Rs 10 crore every winter.

Until not so long ago, Ladakh’s border lay at Kegu Naro — a day-long march from Dumchele, where India had a forward post till 1962. In the absence of activities, the Chinese in the 1980s built roads, buildings and trading posts to supply goods to the Indian smugglers.

China claims some 150 square kilometre in Demchok. The PLA has built massive infrastructure on its side and moved armoured troops into Charding Nalla since 2009. The PLA follows the nomadic Rebo routes for patrolling in contrast to the Indian authorities restricting Rebo movements that led to massive shrinking of pastureland and border defence.

A major incident erupted in Demchok in 2014 simultaneously with the Chumur stand-off when the local authorities built a small irrigation canal at Nilung Nalla under the NREGA scheme. The PLA then mobilised Tibetan villagers from Tashigong to pitch Rebos at Charding-Ninglung Nallah (CNN) Track Junction to protest the Indian action.

Tibetan nomads pitched tents on Hemis Monastery’s land in 2018-19. Intentions seemed to be to capture Demchok to integrate with the Kailash-

Manasarovar complex. China’s assertion has grown after it built infrastructure in the Ngari area to develop Kailash-Manasarovar into a tourist complex.

In Chumur, China claims 80 square kilometer. A crisis at Tibli erupted in September 2014 — during Xi Jinping’s visit to India — when Chinese workers entered at 31-R point to build a road up to Tible inside the IB. China probably wants a straight border from PT-4925 to PT-5318 to bring the Tible Mane (stupa) area under its control. The Chinese wanted the Indian Army to remove a storage hut near the Zero Border. The stand-off was resolved after the tin structure of the 77 Brigade was removed. Remember, the PLA demanded removal of India’s fortified positions in Burtse (2013), Demchok and Chumur (2014) for its retreat. All this while, the Chinese were used to India’s lax attitude, but its stepped up construction activities is now perturbing them.

Despite topographical challenges, corruption and scams, the BRO has lately fast-tracked the 260 km long Shayok-DBO road construction that probably provoked the PLA intrusion in early May, triggering the current Galwan stand-off. Tension at LAC this time is unlikely to move like at Depsang in 2013, Chumar in 2014 and Doklam in 2017 that momentarily impacted the India-China ties.

The issue this time seemingly overrides the LAC dispute. A major shift has unfolded after abrogation of Article 370 and 35A when Beijing had an outburst over making Ladakh a Union Territory — a move China described as ‘unacceptable’ undermining its ‘sovereignty’ — even raising it at the UNSC. India termed Ladakh’s new status an ‘internal matter’ having ‘no implication’ for the LAC status, but China’s response was strategic. Ladakh has been upgraded to UT status, but a drift there is not desirable.

Meanwhile, India’s strategic intent has become firmer — to reclaim the entire PoK, including Gilgit-Baltistan, in accordance with the February 1994 resolution unanimously passed by Parliament.

The Survey of India’s new official map depicting Gilgit-Baltistan and Aksai China within the UT Ladakh boundary and the most recent subtle but significant move by the IMD to include areas in PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan in its daily weather forecasts, starting May 6, is a new development in the high Asian geopolitics.

The change came days after the Pakistan Supreme Court permitted the federal government to hold elections in Gilgit-Baltistan. New Delhi cautioned Pakistan against bringing material changes in the occupied areas of the Indian territory of J&K. Clearly, we are likely to enter a period of uncertainty — a shift that may have a lasting imprint on geopolitics.

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Majid Jahangir and Suhail A Shah
Tribune News Service
Srinagar/Anantnag, May 28

A ‘Pulwama-like attack’ was averted by the timely action of security forces on Wednesday night here in Pulwama district.

According to police sources, the incident took place between 8.45 pm and 9.15 pm at Ayangund village.

“A naka was set up by the joint forces. While vehicles were being checked, one of them jumped the barricade and tried to flee the spot,” a police source said.

He said the vehicle did not go far and was abandoned after around 200 metres.

“Security personnel who were chasing the car found it abandoned by the roadside. On further checking of the car, it was found to be laden with explosives,” sources said.

The explosives were disposed of on Thursday morning by a bomb disposal squad. The car (a Santro) had a fake number plate.

Sources told The Tribune that the case would be handed over to the National Investigation Agency.

Police are yet to issue an official statement.

As many as 40 CRPF men were killed on February 14 last year after a similar car bomb was used by militants in Lethpora area of the district. The attack is referred to as the Pulwama attack. The gruesome attack had brought India and Pakistan to the brink of a war.

Later, IGP Kashmir Vijay Kumar said the militants driving the car jumped two nakas and abandoned it at Ayegund area of Rajpora.

“After preliminary investigation, it was found the vehicle was laden with at least 40 kg to 45 kg of explosive material. The vehicle went up 15 metres when the IED was defused,” Kumar said in a press conference in Srinagar.

“The militants were planning the suicide attack on Jang-e-Badr (May 11), but couldn’t do it due to the intensified operations against militants,” he said.

The IGP said a local militant, Adil, who works for Hizb and Jaish and two others, had planned to carry out an attack with the explosives- laden car.

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, May 27

Nepal has put on hold a constitutional amendment to update its political map to include three disputed areas in India.

A week ago, Nepal was all set for a cartographic confrontation with India when it unveiled a new political map that placed Kalapani within its border.

An understanding to tackle the situation diplomatically instead of belligerence was reached at an all-party meeting held at Baluwatar, the seat of the Nepal Government, late on Tuesday evening.

While Nepal announced that it had started printing the new political maps, the ruling party ran into problems when it sought to change the image of Nepal’s map on the coat-of-arms to incorporate the new changes.

Such a step, however, required more than an administrative decision and the ruling party realised it was short of the required two-thirds majority to amend the constitution to include Limpiyadhura, Lipulekh and Kalapani in the image of the map on the coat of arms.

The pro-India Nepali Congress was ambiguous at the all-party meeting and sought a meeting of its policymaking body to evaluate the issue. At least 35 members of Madhesh parties also sought their pound of flesh, forcing the ruling party’s managers to press the issue at some other opportune time.

India and Nepal re-opened their differences on a triangle of land bordering China about six months ago when New Delhi published a political map to show the change in countours of Jammu and Kashmir from a single state to two UTs of J&K and Ladakh. Nepal felt the new map seemed to have included three areas which were its territory.

The issue intensified again early this month when Defence Minister Rajnath Singh inaugurated a blacktopped road to Lipulekh Pass that seemed to traverse areas claimed by Nepal.

New Delhi cautious

We are carefully following developments in Nepal. Border issues are sensitive by nature and require trust and confidence to be resolved to mutual satisfaction. We note that there is a larger ongoing debate on this matter in Nepal. It underlines the seriousness of this issue. It also demonstrates the value being attached to relations between Nepal and India. We continue to monitor the situation. — sources

Washington, May 28

The US and India must develop a plan to counter a possible effort by China to strengthen its position in the Indian Ocean by deepening ties with Pakistan and Sri Lanka by taking advantage of their economic woes due to the coronavirus pandemic, an American think-tank has said.

There have been considerable concerns in India over China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean region. India has been trying to expand maritime cooperation with countries of the region including Sri Lanka, Maldives, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar and Singapore, primarily with an aim to check the growing Chinese assertiveness.

According to the Hudson Institute think-tank, the coronavirus pandemic threatens not only lives and livelihoods in South Asia; it could also be the precursor of significant political and strategic shifts in the region.

The Bangladesh and Indian economies will survive the devastation, but their governments will have to restore growth by protecting and encouraging investment, the think-tank said in a report jointly authored by Indian-origin Hudson research scholar Aparna Pande and former Pakistan Ambassador to the US Husain Haqqani.

“Pakistan and Sri Lanka will likely move in the direction of negative growth and will need debt relief from their international creditors. Without it, Sri Lanka faces the prospect of a sovereign debt default. Both countries are likely to look to China as their benefactor, as their leaders have tended to do for a while,” it said.

According to the report titled “Crisis from Kolkata to Kabul: COVID-19’s Impact on South Asia”, China will most likely press its advantage by bailing out South Asia’s indebted governments, “in exchange for its pound of flesh”.

“This would come at the expense of India’s security and US influence in the region. India and the United States must develop a plan to counter efforts China will likely make to strengthen its position in the Indian Ocean by deepening ties with Pakistan and Sri Lanka,” said the Hudson report, released this week.

Pakistan and Sri Lanka have been a target of Beijing’s ambitious Belt and Road (BRI) scheme, criticised for creating ‘debt traps’ by burdening fiscally weak countries with unsustainable debt.

The BRI is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature global infrastructure policy.

First announced in 2013, the project promises to build ports, roads and railways to revive the ancient Silk Road and create new trade corridors linking China to Asia, Africa and Europe. The BRI also includes the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which India opposed as it goes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

In December 2017, Sri Lanka handed over the control of the southern seaport of Hambantota to China on a 99-year lease, triggering concern over Beijing’s efforts to expand influence in the Indian Ocean region.

Beijing has recently granted an “urgent” loan of USD 500 million to Colombo to help it fight the virus, which has infected over 1,465 people and claimed 10 lives in the country.

Earlier this month, China inked a USD 5.8 billion deal with Islamabad to build a dam in Gilgit-Baltistan, a move strongly opposed by India which said that carrying out such projects in territories under Pakistan’s illegal occupation was not proper.

The IMF has recently approved a loan of USD 500 million to cash-strapped Pakistan to cope with the economic crisis being posed by the coronavirus outbreak, which has infected over 59,000 people and killed more than 1,220. The country has also sought additional loans from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to tide over the crisis.

The report said India’s initiative to develop a regional response to the threat posed by COVID-19 has been undermined by Pakistan’s insistence on raising the Kashmir issue even in this challenging time.

“Given that Pakistan has fewer resources to further its military buildup against India, it is likely to escalate the use of sub-conventional warfare (terrorism) in an effort to gain the upper hand against much-larger India,” the report noted.

Pakistan, it said, might seek relief from terrorism-related strictures on grounds that it needs space to deal with the coronavirus emergency.

International pressure, especially Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey-list sanctions targeting Pakistan, might be needed to restrain the worst anti-Indian impulses of its civil and military leaders, the report added.

In the past, Pakistan has used natural disasters to expand terrorist infiltrations into Kashmir and India. Indian officials are concerned that Pakistan could use the COVID-19 crisis as a distraction to do the same, the report observed.

“Although a full-blown war in the subcontinent is unlikely, tensions between India and Pakistan will probably continue to impede efforts for regional cooperation. Such cooperation could ease the task of economic reconstruction that will almost certainly take place when the pandemic has died down. India could, and probably will, try to work with other countries in the region, but not Pakistan,” the report said. PTI 

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, May 27

A three-day conference of the Army’s top brass began today to delve on various issues facing the force, including operational and administrative matters.

This is the first phase of the event, the second scheduled for the last week of June. The conference was planned in April, but had to be deferred due to Covid-19 outbreak.

The meeting comes in the backdrop of a major crisis in Eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China. The three-day biannual event is attended by the top Army leadership to brainstorm new security and administrative issues and plan a roadmap.

The anti-terror operations in Kashmir will also be discussed. Another issue on agenda will be the training of soldiers and officers as the corona outbreak had halted all such drills, including field activity.

Also on agenda

• Anti-terror operations in Kashmir valley
• Training of soldiers and officers, which had stopped post-Covid outbreak
• Merger of Directorate General of Military Training into ARTRAC in Shimla

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, May 27

China sought to dial down tensions on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and continued quiet diplomacy with India even as US President Donald Trump unexpectedly offered to be the peacemaker.

Read  also:

• Daring the Dragon
• Dealing with jittery China

“Between the two countries, we have good border-related mechanism and communication channels. We are capable of resolving the issues properly though dialogue and consultation,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian, while confirming quiet diplomacy, away from public glare, was on to defuse the border tensions.

“This includes communication between border troops and between our diplomatic missions,” he explained.

At the same time, Zhao indicated tough bargaining in the days ahead by reiterating China’s commitment to safeguarding its territorial sovereignty and security.

There was a flutter in the strategic community when Trump sought to step in as the peacemaker days after Alice Wells, his top diplomat for the region, did the opposite by accusing China of causing problems from the land border with India to the South China Sea.“We have informed both India and China that the United States is ready, willing and able to mediate or arbitrate their now raging border dispute. Thank you!” tweeted Trump. There was no response from the Indian and Chinese governments.

Trump previously offered to mediate between India and Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, a proposal rejected by New Delhi maintaining there was no role for third party in bilateral issues.In a different context, the Chinese Ambassador said India and China must never let the differences shadow the overall situation of bilateral cooperation. “We should adhere to the basic judgment that China and India pose no threat to each other,” he stresssed.

New Delhi: India is witnessing its worst-ever border tensions since the Kargil battle in 1999, with China bringing forward at least 5,000 troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh.

Transgressions have been reported at multiple locations in eastern Ladakh — three in the larger Hot Springs area and one in the ‘Finger’ area of Pangong lake.

Now, news agency ANI has reported that Chinese troops have moved in “nearly 10-15 km from the Indian post KM 120” in the Galwan Valley, and have pitched tents and stationed themselves close to the post. Post KM 120 lies on the strategic Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi road whose inauguration last year caused much discomfort to China.

The report does not make it clear if the Chinese movement is within territory controlled by China or India. However, sources in the know maintain that there is no transgression here per se, even though troop build-up has taken place on the Chinese side.

Satellite imagery shared on social media by experts has shown that the troops are most likely within the Chinese Claim Line (CCL) in the Galwan Valley, where that line matches the Indian perception of the LAC.

The sources told ThePrint that while about 250 troops are deployed here on a regular basis, more troops have been brought in to counter the Chinese deployment. The sources insisted that this does not mean the KM 120 post is under threat, but that it is being used for deployment and logistics.

Also read: Stand-off in Ladakh: Army matching wits with China, on every step

Worst since Kargil

What is happening at the LAC in eastern Ladakh doesn’t resemble how things unfolded in 1999, but the fact that the troop build-up and transgressions are happening at multiple locations as far 200 km apart, makes this the worst border tensions India has seen since the Kargil battle.

ThePrint had reported earlier in the day that India is carrying out “proactive localised preventive deployment” at multiple locations along the LAC in eastern Ladakh, even as it has carried out “mirror deployment” in areas where it has been challenged by Chinese troops.

The ANI report said the Indian Army has increased the presence of its troops and patrolling in other areas of eastern Ladakh under the 70 Brigade, in the Himachal sector and the central sector of the LAC, including the border with Uttarakhand, to check any attempts by the PLA to transgress.

It added that the Chinese army has diverted its troops, carrying out a massive exercise on its side of the LAC, and deployed them at short notice across the LAC in the areas under the Indian Army’s 81 and 114 Brigades, deployed to counter the Chinese assertions from Daulat Beg Oldi and adjoining areas. The Indian Army has remained mum on the issue.

Here’s an account of what has transpired so far.

Fist fight on 5 May

On the evening of 5 May, a large group of Chinese soldiers, armed with sticks and stones, descended upon a group of Indian soldiers, who were taken by surprise and eventually hit back.

The fist fight and stone pelting continued for quite some time, injuring several soldiers on both sides. Some of the injuries sustained were so severe that some soldiers including officers had to be evacuated to military hospitals.

The Army has not spoken officially on the issue but has admitted “injuries to several” soldiers.

Also read: India-China border conflict shows Beijing’s aggression not always rhetorical, says US diplomat Alice Wells

Transgression in ‘Finger’ area

The 134-km Pangong lake’s northern bank juts out like a palm, and the various protrusions are identified as “fingers” to demarcate territory. While India asserts that the LAC starts at Finger 8, China claims it starts at Finger 2, which India dominates.

Two-thirds of the lake, which extends from Tibet to Ladakh, is controlled by China, while the LAC passes through the lake itself, because of which both sides patrol it on land and in the water.

Since the perception of LAC is different, the area has a history of scuffles between both sides.

During the Kargil battle, when troops were diverted from the area to fight Pakistan, China had stepped in and built a motorable road at Finger 4.

Sources said India has been trying to construct a road further from Finger 2 over the past few years, which would have provided soldiers with the capability to move in vehicles. The Chinese have, however, now brought in more soldiers and have set up bunkers near Finger 3 to prevent Indian patrols from going further.

This is a clear transgression, because Chinese troops are in what India claims is its territory. Both sides have increased the force levels in this area.

Galwan Valley tense with troop build-up

While the initial focus was on Pangong, it later emerged that China had objected to a series of construction activities being carried out by India about 200 km away, in the Galwan Valley.

Galwan has largely remained peaceful since the 1962 India-China war. It is one area where the Chinese Claim Line and the LAC match, and this has been the understanding for years now at the local level.

However, no maps have been exchanged in this area, which means any kind of understanding is not formal.

The sources said what riled China in this area was a series of road construction activities, which are important to India from a military point of view, vis-a-vis the key base of Daulat Beg Oldi in sub-sector north in eastern Ladakh.

India’s Border Roads Organisation had built the Shyok-DBO road last year.

This road is at least 10 km inside the LAC at several points, and runs perpendicular to the Galwan river. To connect this road to the LAC, India was constructing feeder roads. This included a bridge over a nullah or rivulet, near the confluence of the Shyok and Galwan rivers.

The Chinese have been objecting to this, and following the Pangong clash, they decided to amp up their presence.

China brought in a large number of Border Defence Regiment (BDR) troops along the LAC to stop the Indian construction activity. They have pitched a large number of tents and set up associated logistics elements.

Taken aback by the Chinese objection to construction within Indian territory, India decided to “dig in” and do mirror deployment.

Hot Springs

Beside the build-up in Galwan Valley, Chinese troops have “come in” about 3 km into Indian territory south-east of the Galwan Valley, largely known as ‘Hot Springs’ area in eastern Ladakh.

The Chinese have come in near patrol point 14, 15 and the Gogra Post, which are 80 km south-east of the mouth of the Galwan Valley as the crow flies, and between the valley and Pangong lake.

Sources told ThePrint that the Chinese have not crossed the CCL in these areas, but did accept that these areas are about 3 km within India’s perception of the LAC.

Also read: IAF’s Sukhois on sorties in Ladakh amid tensions with China but no jets ‘scrambled’

Pakistan army initiated unprovoked ceasefire violation by small arm firing with mortar shelling along LoC in Balakote sector in Poonch district Tuesday, a defence official said.

“Pakistan army initiated unprovoked ceasefire violation by small arm firing with mortar shelling along LoC in Balakote sector in Poonch district early Tuesday morning”, he said.

He said the Indian Army retaliated befittingly.

The cross-border shelling between the two sides was going on when last reports were received, the officials said.

However, there was no immediate report of any casualty during the shelling.

Also read: Gen Naravane’s insensitive remark undermined 40 battalions of Nepalis in Indian Army