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U.S. Vice President JD Vance, left, meets with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Saturday, April 11, 2026, in Islamabad, Pakistan for talks about Iran. AP/PTI(AP04_11_2026_000793B)

High-stakes negotiations between the United States and Iran ended without a breakthrough in Islamabad on Sunday, as US Vice President JD Vance departed for Washington after 24 hours of intensive talks mediated by Pakistan.

Addressing a press conference in Islamabad, Vance acknowledged limited progress but confirmed that the two sides had failed to bridge core differences.

“We’ve had a number of substantive discussions with the Iranians. That’s the good news. The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement, and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than its bad news for the United States,” he said.

Vance said Washington had clearly outlined its “red lines” and areas of possible compromise, but Tehran declined to accept the terms. – Ujwal Jalali

Iran denies claims that US vessels entered Strait of Hormuz

April 12, 2026 8:59 am

A spokesperson for Iran’s joint military command has denied an earlier claim by the US that two Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz, adding that “initiative over the passage of any vessel rests with the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran”, according to Iran’s state-media. Earlier, the US military said two destroyers transited the Iran-gripped waterway ahead of mine-clearing work, a first since the war began. Iran’s state media, however, said Iran forced a US military ship that was attempting to cross the strait to turn around.

Talks with Iran ended after 21 hours without reaching agreement, says US Vice President Vance

April 12, 2026 8:07 am

US Vice President JD Vance said on Sunday that the Islamabad Talks with Iran failed as the two sides could not bridge the gulf of differences despite hectic efforts spreading more than 21 hours.

Starit of Hormuz

April 12, 2026 8:05 am

As the talks started, the US military said it was “setting the conditions” to start clearing the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is central to the ceasefire talks. The U.S. military said two of its warships had passed through the strait and conditions were being set to clear mines, while Iran’s state media denied any U.S. ships had transited the waterway.

US Air Force Chief of Staff Wilsbach welcomed India’s procurement of MQ-9B Sky Guardian aircraft and emphasised their commitment to ensuring the Indian Armed Forces can seamlessly and effectively employ the platform upon delivery

ndian Air Force chief Air Chief Marshal AP Singh held discussions with US Air Force Chief of Staff Gen Ken Wilsbach in Washington to advance shared priorities in support of the strong and growing defence partnership between the two countries.

Singh received a full honours arrival at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling here on April 8 and met Secretary of the Air Force Troy Meink and Wilsbach at the Pentagon.

In addition to his engagements in the national capital region, Singh visited Peterson Space Force Base in Colorado for briefings centred on the binational North American Aerospace Defence Command mission of aerospace warning, aerospace control and maritime warning for North America, officials said.

The IAF chief also travelled to Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, where the visit included briefings at the US Air Force Warfare Centre and a familiarisation flight in an F-15EX Eagle II, a statement from the US Air Force (USAF) said.

“Opportunities like this are crucial for building our joint interoperability and strengthening the strategic partnership between our air forces,” Singh was quoted as saying in the statement.

During the office calls, Department of the Air Force senior leaders emphasised the priority America places on its defence partnership with India, highlighting its central role in ensuring a free, open, peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.

Wilsbach praised India’s leadership and participation in multilateral exercises with like-minded partners and stressed how continuing to prioritise and expand such cooperation is key to enhancing regional deterrence.

He also welcomed India’s procurement of MQ-9B Sky Guardian aircraft and emphasised the US Air Force commitment to ensuring the Indian Armed Forces can seamlessly and effectively employ the platform upon delivery.

Wilsbach also underscored USAF’s readiness to further support IAF’s modernisation efforts, noting the mutual benefits of pursuing these goals through defence industrial collaboration.

“It was an honour to host Air Chief Marshal AP Singh for this important counterpart visit,” he said.

“Throughout his day at the Pentagon, we had great discussions focused on modernisation efforts, future training opportunities and our shared commitment to a free, open and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Wilsbach said.

The office call was followed by staff talks to discuss topics that included the National Guard Bureau’s State Partnership Programme, the Air National Guard’s Advanced Airlift Tactics Training Centre, and full-spectrum MQ-9 operations.

Deliveries of MQ-9B likely in Jan 2029

The US has assured seamless integration of the armed MQ-9B Sea Guardian drones into the Indian armed forces. New Delhi had, in October 2024, inked a contract with the US for 31 of these armed drones, popularly known as ‘Predator’.

Deliveries are expected to begin in January 2029. The drones are widely used for surveillance and precision strikes.

US Air Force Chief General Kenneth Wilsbach, during a meeting with Indian Air Force Chief Air Chief Marshal AP Singh in the US, welcomed India’s procurement of MQ-9B armed drones.

The US Air Force said, “General Wilsbach emphasised the US Air Force’s commitment to ensuring that the Indian Armed Forces can seamlessly and effectively employ the platform upon delivery.” The IAF Chief was also shown “full-spectrum MQ-9 operations”, the US Air Force said.

In October 2024, the Ministry of Defence had signed a contract with the US for the drones, along with a separate agreement with its maker General Atomics for performance-based logistics and for maintenance, repair and overhaul in India. The deal is valued at almost $4 billion.

The MQ-9B operates at altitudes of over 40,000 feet and has an endurance of up to 40 hours of continuous flight. It features automatic take-off and landing, encrypted communications and secure GPS. Its armament payload includes missiles and small-diameter bombs. It has advanced signals intelligence systems, electro-optical and infrared sensors, and synthetic aperture radar for surveillance. The MQ-9B offers persistent and long-range surveillance and monitoring capabilities.

Separately, the IAF said the two chiefs discussed enhancing interoperability, joint training, capability development and fostering shared learning.

The visit also included the IAF Chief’s engagements at Peterson Space Force Base and Nellis Air Force Base, along with a familiarisation flight in an F-15EX fighter jet. It may be noted that the Iranians had shot down an F-15E jet during the ongoing conflict.

Earlier, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh received a ceremonial welcome at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling and met US Air Force Secretary Troy Meink.

During the meetings, senior US Air Force leaders emphasised the importance of the defence partnership with India, highlighting its role in ensuring a free, open, peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.

General Wilsbach underscored the US Air Force’s readiness to support the IAF modernisation efforts, noting the mutual benefits of defence industrial collaboration.

The US Vice-President confirms consultations with key figures, including Admiral Cooper, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

US Vice-President JD Vance on Sunday said he remained in constant touch with President Donald Trump throughout the high-stakes negotiations with Iran, revealing the intensity and real-time coordination behind Washington’s diplomatic push.

US Vice-President JD Vance arrives for a meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11, 2026. Reuters

US Vice-President JD Vance on Sunday said he remained in constant touch with President Donald Trump throughout the high-stakes negotiations with Iran, revealing the intensity and real-time coordination behind Washington’s diplomatic push.

Responding to a question on the frequency of his communication with Trump, Vance said the engagement was continuous during the nearly day-long talks. “We were talking to the President consistently. I don’t know the exact number—perhaps half a dozen times, maybe a dozen over the past 21 hours,” he said.

The Vice-President underscored that the negotiations were closely guided by the broader US national security establishment, with multiple senior officials looped in

He confirmed consultations with key figures, including Admiral Cooper, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

“We were constantly in communication with the entire national security team because we were negotiating in good faith,” Vance said, signalling a coordinated and unified US approach during the talks.

Col SS Rajan( Ex-President South of Sanjha Morcha) being bestowed the Veteran Achiever Award by the COAS on 08 Apr 2026,

Army dogs steal the show on PU campus

More than 90% planning done for theatre commands: Top military official

Iran makes Trump blink first

Discord keeps ceasefire on thin ice

Theatre command proposal to be submitted to govt soon: CDS Anil Chauhan

: Col SS Rajan being bestowed the Veteran Achiever Award by the COAS on Wednesday, 08 April 2026 at Dronacharya Hall, ASC Centre & College, Bangalore.

Standing from Left to Right:

1. Comdt ASC Centre & College, Bangalore.
2. COAS
3. Col Rajan holding the Veteran Achiever Medallion & Parchments document of the Award.
4. CoS, HQ Dakshin Bharat Area, Chennai.

shaking hands with Col Rajan

The other three Veteran Achievers are:

1. Col Sharath Bhandary, from Corps of Signals, who rendered yeoman service as President, Mangalore Dist Ex-Servicemen Welfare Association; President, Karnataka Rubber Plant Growers Association; and was Mangalore Metropolitan Magistrate for six years, a unique honor bestowed on a retired Service Officer.
2. Hav Thimayya, a Madras Sapper, Karnataka Rajyothsava Day Awardee; a recipient of numerous State & National Awards for his contribution to Scientific Farming & Agriculture; and who delivers talks annually to the IAS Trainees at the Lal Bahadur Shastri Academy, Mussoorie, on the subject of Scientific Farming & Agriculture.
3. Cdr (IN) Santhanam, an authority on various provisions of ECHS; who has been rendering yeo…
   In all humility, I dedicate this Award to my Team of retired Officers, JCOs, NCOs & Men who have stood by me through times thick & thin in organising & conducting various Ex-Servicemen activities, incl Welfare of Ex-Servicemen & their families.
4. Veteran Achievers Award: Recognising Contributions, Rewarding Excellence #GeneralUpendraDwivedi, #COAS felicitated four distinguished veterans during his visit to Bengaluru for their exceptional contribution to nation-building, social welfare and community empowerment. Havildar SC Thimmaiah (Retd) has significantly transformed rural livelihoods in Kodagu through innovative integrated agro-farming practices. By promoting labour-saving techniques and multi-cropping systems, he has driven widespread adoption across regions. His impactful work has earned him numerous honours, including recognition from ICAR and the Karnataka Rajyotsava Award for excellence in agriculture. Colonel SS Rajan (Retd) has devoted himself to the welfare and resettlement of veterans. He has actively addressed a wide range of issues affecting ex-servicemen and represented their concerns with state authorities. He has also ensured the dignified conduct of Commemoration Ceremonies such as Kargil Diwas and Vijay Diwas at the National Military Memorial, Bengaluru, while continuing to mentor youth and veterans towards meaningful national service. Colonel Nitteguthu Sharath Bhandaray (Retd) has rendered exemplary service in public administration and veteran welfare. As Chairman of the Lok Adalat under the Karnataka High Court, he has effectively resolved numerous grievances of veterans. He has also spearheaded several social initiatives, supporting economically weaker sections, guiding youth towards career in the Armed Forces, and leading welfare activities through charitable organisations. Commander Veeraghava Kuppuswamy Santhanam (Retd) has harnessed digital platforms to support the veteran community by spreading awareness on ECHS policies and procedures. With over 128 informative videos and hands-on volunteer assistance in hospitals, he has enabled countless veterans to access healthcare benefits and navigate reimbursement processes with ease. “Service is a lifelong journey – building a stronger, united India.” #RespectAndRecognition #Veterans #NationBuilding

Army dog squad showcases precision and discipline on Day 1 of Panjab University’s mega-fest ‘KAVACH 3.0’ in Chandigarh on Thursday. Tribune Photo: Pradeep Tewari

Army personnel, along with trained dogs, demonstrate a drill to trace terrorists, at Panjab University on Thursday. Pardeep Tewari

The Panjab University ground turned into a display of military precision and discipline as the Department of Defence and National Security Studies (DDNSS) kicked off its two-day annual festival, “Kavach 3.0”. While the event featured various military displays, the highlight of the opening day was a spectacular dog show conducted by the Remount Veterinary Corps (RVC) of the Indian Army.

.The show featured seven highly trained dogs, five labrador retrievers and two Belgian malinois. These canines demonstrated agility and intelligence, successfully navigating complex obstacles like “Brahma Bridge” and 15-foot ladders. Beyond physical stunts, the RVC handlers showcased the technical skills these dogs use in tracking terrorists, detecting explosives and conducting rescue operations in difficult terrains.

These dogs undergo one-year of rigorous training before joining the Army squad. While their average life span is around 12 years, they typically serve for a maximum of 10 years.

The event was inaugurated by PU Vice-Chancellor Renu Vig and special guest Maj Gen Bharat Mehtani, ADG NCC. Organised by Prof Jaskaran Singh Waraich, the show is aimed at bridging the gap between civilians and the armed forces.

The first day also featured a weapon display by the Western Command, Chandimandir. The festival is scheduled to continue through Friday, featuring a horse show and NCC activities.

As reported in The Tribune, the proposed formation of theatre commands for the Indian armed forces now has new contours

A top military official on Thursday confirmed that more than 90 per cent of the planning for the creation of theatre commands — a new structure for the Indian Armed forces — has been completed.

The Tribune has reported in its print edition on Thursday morning that fresh contours of the theatre commands have emerged with a wider role for the Indian Air Force (IAF).

Air Marshal Ashutosh Dixit, the immediate subordinate of the Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan who has been tasked with tri-service jointness, integration and operational synergy, said, “Our move towards joint structures and Theatre Commands — with planning now reported to be more than 90 per cent complete — is a historic opportunity.”

Air Marshal Dixit warned that structures alone did not guarantee synergy. Cultural integration was what that made the structures come alive. “Jointness must evolve from mere coordination to genuine unity of effort. That requires transparency in information-sharing, clarity of authority, and most fundamentally mutual trust,” he added.

He was making the opening keynote address at the two-day (April 9-10) brainstorming session ‘Ran Samwad’ which started here.

‘Theatre commands’ is a military jargon for creating geographically defined area of operations, with a military commander heading it and controlling all war-fighting assets like planes, copter, guns, tanks, equipment and manpower.

As reported in The Tribune, the proposed formation of theatre commands for the Indian armed forces now has new contours. 

The Western Theatre, focused on Pakistan, will be headed by an Indian Air Force (IAF) officer while the Northern Theatre, focused on China, will have an Army officer as its head. The Maritime Theatre Command, on expected lines, would be headed by a Navy officer.

The plan will need a nod from the Ministry of Defence and also the Cabinet Committee on Security.

These fresh contours mean the IAF has been proposed to be the permanent lead for the Western Command. This has come after looking at the devastation the IAF strikes caused during Operation Sindoor in May last year. The allocation of ‘theatre commands’ is more or less fixed and there is unlikely to be any rotation. The previous  proposal featured rotation between the IAF and the Army.

The military also proposes to have a Vice Chief of Defence Staff with deputy commanders of all theatres who will be from another service.

The current CDS will retire in May this year, and he could present the fresh proposal before his tenure ends.

The key issue will be THE division of IAF assets. Some of these strategic assets could be controlled from Delhi for seamless operation across the theatres.

Incidentally, the developments come ahead of the second edition of ‘Ran Samwad’.

During the last edition of Ran Samwad in August last year, a sharp difference of opinion had emerged among the military top brass on the proposed structure of ‘theatre commands’. Navy Chief Admiral DK Tripathi had batted in favour of having ‘theatreisation’ as a goal while the IAF Chief, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh, had cautioned against having ‘theatre commands’ for now.  The IAF chief had suggested a different format for military coordination, one led at the level of the service Chiefs.

The CDS, General Anil Chauhan, had acknowledged ‘dissonance’ on the subject and added that it was being ‘resolved’.

Diplomatic win for Tehran as US President accepts its 10 points as the basis of talks

A few hours before he was set to unleash “hell” on Iran, US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he had agreed to “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks”. In response, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on behalf of the country’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), “If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations”.

Israel grudgingly decided to follow the American lead. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “Israel supports President Trump’s decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks…” Thanks to this breakthrough, a ceasefire has begun. Both Trump and Iran have declared victory, while the world has heaved more than a sigh of relief.

There are crucial gaps in the protagonists’ statements on the truce. The US and Israel have made the ceasefire contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump wrote that his decision was subject to its “complete, immediate and safe” opening, but he did not prescribe a modality.

Iran has given a nuanced response. It has referred to its negotiating stand on the Strait; Tehran is keen to control the “passage through the Strait in coordination with Iran’s armed forces, which confers a unique economic and geopolitical position on Iran”. It remains to be seen how the Strait will function. Without its complete reopening, the ceasefire will not work.

Netanyahu has announced that the ceasefire does not include the fighting in Lebanon. Iran’s statement, though equivocal — and Iranian diplomacy specialises in frustrating equivocation — indicates that it does. Will Iran continue with the ceasefire if Israel persists with its attacks on Lebanon? Will Trump rein in Netanyahu on Lebanon?

The next 48 hours are critical to the continuation of the ceasefire, but there is too much at stake for Trump and the Iranians for it to fail. If Netanyahu plays spoilsport, Trump can bring him to heel.

Meanwhile, Iran can claim diplomatic success in Trump’s acceptance of its 10 points as the basis of negotiations. He wrote, “It is a workable basis on which to negotiate”. He has set aside his own 15 points. But Iran would know that its document is an opening gambit. It has mentioned its requirements — UN Security Council guarantees for non-aggression, reparation, security of its proxies, removal of sanctions, unfreezing of assets and no US bases in the Gulf — but it’s difficult to assume that most of these would be acceptable to the US.

On nuclear enrichment, an indispensable US requirement, the SNSC statement mentions “acceptance of enrichment”, but does not dwell on this point. Iran would have to make concessions on the nuclear issue.

The scene will shift to Islamabad for diplomatic action if the US confirms that talks will be held there on April 10. Iran has done so. Pakistan, which it must be admitted is the current toast of a large part of the world, has “invited” both sides, but not Israel. It is likely that at least one round of negotiations will be held in Pakistan. After Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar’s China visit, Pakistan’s mediation seemed to have flagged, but the US and Iran decided to continue relying on it.

Even as Trump has tried to put a gloss on the Iran war, he has failed in his objective of removing the Vilayat-e-Faqih system. What he, and even more Israel, wanted was to crush it, and for Iran to sue for peace, if not surrender. The decapitation strike led to regime change, but the new regime will continue to operate within the clerical system. In Iran, it will be much of a muchness.

Iran globalised the impact of the war by taking it to the Arab Gulf states and even more by effectively choking the Strait. In doing so, it removed 20% of the world’s hydrocarbons.

All wars after World War II impacted, at most, some regions. The Vietnam and Afghanistan wars of the 20th century and the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza fall in this category. The Iran war is the first since 1945 that has had global implications. It has threatened the world because it has impacted global energy security and therefore, the global economy.

Indeed, the Iranian strategy of regionalising and globalising the war has been audacious but effective. Faced with an existential crisis, the Iranian system has responded successfully to save itself.

Did the US with all its war-gaming capacity not anticipate Iran’s strategy and the commitment to shahadat (martyrdom)? Trump’s chest-thumping and the use of expletives, and the bombing of Iran, cannot hide that he has not succeeded in his basic objectives. And, all this happened because the US does not care to understand the cultures of other peoples; that a people while being pragmatic can also draw on their cultural and spiritual heritage to offer resistance.

Did India, like the US and Israel, anticipate that Iran will fold up soon? If it did, as it seems so, it betrayed an inadequate understanding of Shia Islam. That would not be surprising because the Indian establishment’s knowledge of Islamic traditions is limited. That leads it to ignore or form half-baked ideas about them. It should have known that the Shia tradition of shahadat would lend resilience to Iran. Hence, the Indian articulation could have been different, even if the preponderance of its interests lay in the Arab Gulf states.

Above all, did the government realise, as the war clouds gathered, that Iran would close the Strait? Some Indian analysts believe that in the situation that confronted India, it could not but take sides and it made the right choice. In making choices, subtlety should never be lost.

In this case, India took recourse to the mantra of diplomacy and dialogue, but the perception that it had leaned towards the US and Israel remained. This was compounded by the timing of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel a couple of days before the attack on Iran.

The Ministry of External Affairs’ statement welcoming the ceasefire will not be a balm for the Sangh Parivar or the PM’s supporters who may smart at the international encomiums heaped on Pakistan. Maturity demands that our neighbour should be allowed its moment in the sun. This cannot last because its domestic dynamics will, as always, be its undoing.

KC Singh

Iran’s insistence on continued civil nuclear enrichment is a key point of contention

ON the night of April 7-8, as US President Donald Trump’s deadline for annihilating the Iranian “civilisation” approached, a two-week ceasefire was announced. In India, the development evoked both relief and concern. It was a welcome sign that an impending economic and humanitarian crisis had been averted. However, the fact that Pakistan seized centre stage sparked fears that it could misuse its enhanced diplomatic stature to rally support on bilateral disputes like Kashmir or the sharing of river waters.

Immediately, differences emerged over the ceasefire’s scope. Israel continued pounding Lebanon, especially Beirut, with missiles, claiming exemption from the truce. Reports that Trump had accepted Iran’s 10-point plan as the basis of negotiations were also refuted.

The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote on X that with three conditions in the 10-point proposal violated, the Gulf of Hormuz’s opening was on hold. He referred to the ceasefire not covering Lebanon, drones entering Iran’s airspace and the denial of Tehran’s right to nuclear enrichment. He regretted that this had happened even before the start of negotiations in Islamabad (Pakistan). Reportedly, a petrochemical facility on Iran’s Lavan island and some coastal areas were targeted by airstrikes.

If the Islamabad talks are held, as scheduled, on April 10, these hiccups may pass. But their postponement can complicate matters. Collating the demands of both sides shows areas of possible agreement or serious divergence. The Iranian demand for lifting sanctions has been conceded by the US in principle, though the timeline remains unknown. The demand for reparations to compensate for the damage caused by US-Israeli air attacks has been overtaken by Iran’s plan to raise revenue by levying tariffs on ships transiting the Strait. Although the Americans want the Strait’s immediate opening, President Trump has even suggested revenue-sharing.

The areas of dissonance are: Iran insisting on continued civil nuclear enrichment, albeit under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); seeking the US military’s exit from the region and closure of military bases; and finally, Iran’s delinking from its regional allies, like the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas. The US has been insisting on the complete dismantling of Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities. America reverted to this approach after seeking Iranian regime change at the war’s start. Iran’s nuclear weapon-making capability is the principal target.

Differences are surfacing between the US and Israel. The New York Times revealed how the decision was taken to attack Iran. In June 2025, the two countries had attacked Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. On February 11 this year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the White House with his national security team. He made a presentation to President Trump, arguing that a four-stage military operation could achieve regime change in Iran. First, the assassination of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and then the destruction of Iranian offensive and defensive capabilities. This would cause a popular uprising, catalysed by Mossad-activated armed Kurdish fighters infiltrating from Iraq. Finally, a secular government would emerge. A list of possible future leaders was also shared.

The US team’s reaction was divided, with CIA Director John Ratcliffe describing the expectation of an uprising as “farcical”. Gen Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, dilly-dallied, unlike the commanders during President Trump’s first term. Vice President JD Vance expressed “strong scepticism” about the prospect of regime change. Reportedly, he recently chided Netanyahu on the phone for misleading the US with unrealistic expectations.

Right from the beginning of the war, I have argued in newspaper articles and television debates that the Iranian regime would not collapse under military coercion.

It is still unclear why Prime Minister Narendra Modi suddenly visited Israel on February 25-26, two days before the war started. Israel announced his visit only on February 22. Did someone share Netanyahu’s arguments about Iranian regime change with him, encouraging the Indian government to ignore the appearance of partiality towards the US-Israel camp? Since 1991, when India established diplomatic relations with Israel, closer engagement with Tel Aviv has always been seen as beneficial for India-US ties.

Six weeks into the Iran war, the regional security architecture in the Gulf and West Asia faces restructuring. Pakistan’s diplomatic ascendancy through mediation and China’s behind-the-scenes role in militarily and economically supporting Iran have implications for South Asia. If the interim ceasefire leads to a more permanent solution, a new regional order could emerge. The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations are now divided. Qatar has cut a deal with Iran and is seeking the removal of the US military base. The differences between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have worsened.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar is rushing to the UAE as the Saudis now seem fully aligned with Pakistan. The BJP-led government’s decade-old policy of wooing the Gulf’s ruling families to isolate Pakistan now appears defunct. Turkiye and Egypt are also with the Saudi-Pakistan axis, backed by the US. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has always been keen to draw investments away from Dubai. Prosperity and investments may not fully return to Dubai and the UAE, so long as Iran is run by a regime with new faces but the same ideology. Additionally, the Iranian morale has been boosted by the successful defiance of the US and Israel.

The US entered the Gulf region in 1971 following the British withdrawal from the Trucial States, which preceded the UAE. The Shah of Iran and the Al Saud family of Saudi Arabia became their twin pillars of regional security. The 1973 Arab-Israel war and the resulting fuel crisis made the Gulf critical to the US economy. The 1979 Iranian Revolution upended this structure. Iraq’s Saddam Hussein became the bulwark against Iran; he got US support during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88). Hussein’s occupation of Kuwait and subsequent ejection and the 2003 US occupation of Iraq gave periodic shocks to the region without undermining the regional order.

The Abraham Accords of 2020, crafted during President Trump’s first term, were to create a new Iran-containment structure consisting of Israel and Arab nations willing to normalise relations with it, ignoring the Palestinian issue. The October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel undid all that.

The current war is based on failed ideas of the past to harness Iran. However, the US ended up snapping the existing paradigm, based on the Iran-GCC coexistence or calibrated cooperation despite religious and political schisms.

The regional chaos may slowly settle with recalibrated bilateral relations or regress into controlled violence. However, until a more sensible leadership emerges in Israel and the US, permanent solutions are impossible. Disputes like the Palestinian issue cannot simply be discarded. Iran, too, must abandon old slogans wishing death to the UK, the US and Israel.