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The Army In Aid To Civil Authority: From Agitation To Agitation by Lt Gen Syed Ata Husnain

The Army In Aid To Civil Authority: From
Agitation To Agitation

SNAPSHOT

An overview of the Indian Army’s internal security duties – the hard and soft approach it adopts when there is a breakdown of law and order.

In the public mind, the deployment of the Indian Army in ‘aid to civil authorities’ remains a grey area and merits some explanation for education and confidence building. I am writing this because, on social media, I found myself at the receiving end of hundreds of queries as very few veterans get down to writing on such issues. With the complete breakdown of law and order a third time in Haryana, reliance on the Army in the public mind is a foregone conclusion. How does the Army function in such operations that are being repeated once too often for comfort?

I remember my days at the Indian Military Academy, where a lecture demonstration was conducted for Gentlemen Cadets (GCs) on Aid to Civil Authority each term. It was a fun demonstration with a short playlet added to it. We never took much of it seriously because rarely did one have to physically execute what one learnt. Today, it is different; I think the GCs would have to be prodded to remain awake and take notes, which may come in handy some day and that too very soon.

When is the Army called in (requisitioned) to aid the civil authority? The regulations permit civil authorities to requisition the Army for controlling law and order, maintaining essential services, assisting during natural calamities such as earthquakes, and any other type of help that may be needed by the civil authorities. The scope in this commentary does not include assistance in natural calamities, and essentially looks at the law and order and maintenance of essential services. The state should always depend on the steadfastness, technical capability and leadership of its armed forces to save as many lives as possible in natural disasters. In such circumstances, the simultaneity aspect is as important so that all resources of the state are deployed for the people’s safety; overkill in such contingencies has its advantages.

However, the situation is different in the case of law and order. The Army remains the resource for employment as a last resort as both the central and state governments have police forces available to them who are designed and maintained for this very purpose; that is the broad principle and it should be rare for soldiers to come to such aid as there is such a plethora of police forces. This issue is discussed later in the commentary.

An issue needing clarification at this stage is the difference between the Army acting against mobs in Kashmir and in Haryana. Regulations for the Army, Chapter VII, Paragraphs 301 to 327 and Manual of Indian Military Law, Chapter VII lay down the guidelines for the routine aid to civil authorities. It does not give the Army the right to be the decision-makers, except in deciding what means they will employ to bring the situation under control. They are to be always accompanied by civilian magistrates, one with each column, who discern the severity of the situation and give written or verbal instructions (to be followed in writing or corroborated by two witnesses) to quell a mob or bring any situation under control. The magistrate does not have the power to direct the Army authorities on the means to be employed; for that the local column commander or his Commanding Officer (CO) are the empowered authorities.

In the case of Kashmir or any other area it is different. Afflicted by intense terrorist activity and anti-national sentiment bordering on existential threats to the integrity of the nation, there is a need to empower the Army to operate on its own without the presence of a magistrate. This is because the Army is deployed on 24×7 duty and cannot await arrival of magistrates or written orders to act upon intelligence, which is generated from time to time at different levels.

To legally authorise the Army to operate in this mode, legislation such as the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) is enacted by Parliament. AFSPA – 1990 for Jammu and Kashmir empowers the Army among other things to operate without reference to civil authority. This issue came to the fore in 2008 when the Army was requested to come to the aid of civil authorities to control the huge stone-throwing mobs during the Amarnath Shrine Board agitation. Since the Army was already deployed under AFSPA – 90, there was no need for any requisition and no need for any accompanying magistrates. That is valid even today.

What the public may be unaware of is that in every formation and unit of the Army, there is a folder marked ‘Aid to Civil Authority’. There is a quarterly stock taking of the checklist and at least once in six months or every time during relief of a unit, liaison is carried out with the local Deputy Commissioner and Senior Superintendent of Police, while the formation headquarters does the same at a higher level. If there is a warning of an impending law and order issue, like it was this time in Sirsa, Panchkula or other towns, units immediately stop all other activity and get into internal security (IS) mode, although classically this is not IS duties. Each unit has some steel boxes kept aside and marked for quick retrieval with items required for such duties; these include necessary forms to be signed by magistrates, a copy of the Manual of Indian Military Law and Regulations of the Army, town maps and charts, lists of names of all civil officials with telephone numbers, loudspeakers and megaphones. Warning signs on placards and flags with poles are kept in unit mobilisation stores, along with broad white tape, angle iron pickets and bundles of concertina wire coils.

Off late it has become necessary to fabricate barricades, which can be set up rapidly to keep mobs at bay. Troops operate from behind these barricades or wire obstacles to prevent being overwhelmed by mobs. However, troops never open indiscriminate fire on unarmed mobs. It is under strict control of the senior most functionaries. The magistrate has no authority on them as to the means they use. He can only request that the mob be dispersed. Minimum force, impartiality and good faith are the basic guiding principles, which are to be applied after the necessity for such call up or requisition has been established. Usually the authority to approve deployment for such duties lies with the Army HQ (MO Directorate), who is in touch with the Ministry of Defence (MoD). Once deployed, the authority to operate gets delegated according to the need.

The issue is how soon the Army should be called up in an impending situation of dilution of law and order. Take the current Panchkula situation as a case study. The intelligence was crystal clear. The police authorities should have displayed more professionalism to assume that since they did not get directions to disperse the over one lakh supporters, who had concentrated near about the courts, every single supporter was a potential member of a mob which could go violent. They did not identify the leadership who should have been detained to leave the mobs leaderless. In such an eventuality they went wrong in the assessment of the strength of policemen required. If that was also not wrong then obviously the police showed little pluck and even less leadership in controlling violence once it commenced. All this while, the Army authorities would have been in constant touch. Officers at different towns would be sitting at police control rooms to get a better idea and pass on the earliest warnings based on their own assessments. This was undoubtedly done because the Army takes these things rather seriously. With mistakes made galore by the administration there was no other option but to call up the Army, which became once again the virtual first responder.

The Army has to be always careful about assessing how much manpower to deploy. Under strength deployment will not achieve the ends and the Army itself will get a bad name. An optimum figure must be arrived at and involvement of senior leadership in such a decision process is necessary. I questioned the decision regarding six columns sent to Panchkula. It was too little. You cannot have a situation of reinforcement in driblets. The decisions have to be bold and correct even if there is a slight overkill.

When the Army deploys in the face of ongoing violence, it has no time to undertake flag marches. It just gets into action. It will never run after mobs. The task is to disperse unlawful assembly and protect public property. Its presence must send home a message of the state’s intent to maintain law and order at any cost. However, contingencies can arise when the situation gets out of hand and becomes extremely dangerous with mobs not deterred. It is then the task of the Army to calibrate violence to control the situation. Its officers know how many notches they need to go higher in the intensity of violent means used for such control. It is only under the extreme contingency of threat to itself that the Army column may open fairly heavy fire; this fire will always be single rounds and not in automatic mode.

One aspect needs to be clarified. The police forces must not include Army resources in their ‘troops to task’ to ascertain that they have sufficient strength. If that mistake is made then you can deploy a hundred policemen in Panchkula and depend on 5,000 troops from Chandimandir to assist them. That is no professionalism. The Army is for extreme contingencies, when the police are being overwhelmed. The Army’s arrival and flag march must send the message that the degree of violence will increase if necessary. The police use batons, lathis and tear gas; before firing they warn by firing in the air. The Army does none of this. It fires below the knee, on ring leaders after giving adequate warnings. This concept must be known to the public, especially that element of the public, which tends to break law and order. This is what needs to be constantly announced by megaphones and during curfew by doing rounds of the neighbourhoods.

Army personnel take out a flag march to handle the situation as Jat community protests on the roads demanding reservations in government services on 20 February 2016 in Rohtak, India. (Manoj Dhaka/Hindustan Times via GettyImages)
Army personnel take out a flag march to handle the situation as Jat community protests on the roads demanding reservations in government services on 20 February 2016 in Rohtak, India. (Manoj Dhaka/Hindustan Times via GettyImages)

It is interesting to remember what happened during the Jat agitation just 18 months ago, from which no lessons appear to have been learnt. We had the ridiculous situation, where the Army had to prove to the public that it had actually arrived, by displaying placards above their heads saying ‘ARMY’ in oversize lettering. Why was this ridiculous action necessitated? Shri Prakash Singh, the highly respected former Director General of Uttar Pradesh Police, who investigated the failure of police effectiveness in the Jat agitation of 2016 also observed that the Army’s arrival did not make the same impact as before.

There was a single reason for this. All and sundry in the police forces have over a period of time adopted the Army’s system of wearing disruptive pattern clothing for operations. Thus the Army, out of the olive green uniforms, looks akin to every other force. Any and everyone even from state police forces wears myriad jackets and caps of the Army pattern. The exclusivity of the force, which is separate (the Army) and works on a different concept of operations needs to have a distinct appearance in such operations. It won’t be long before a public interest litigation (PIL) will probably be lodged on this subject by some worthy.

Lastly, I do believe that the Army to be effective without resorting to violent means has to project itself impeccably. It must take initial guidance and have police liaison personnel with it but thereafter its actions have to be seen to be decisive and with a moral ascendancy of its known discipline. To that end whenever I was responsible for such actions I insisted that the Army’s vehicles would appear absolutely clean and well maintained, with well rolled camouflage nets, looking professional and ready to go. The soldiers must project the best demeanour and they must be rehearsed for this. They must make a difference by also displaying the greatest empathy for women and children, the sick and the old. If necessary they must use their authority to allow milk stocks for children and restock medicine shops. The Regimental Medical Officer is the most important asset in such circumstances as he or she ensures that medical assistance is always available to the needy.

These are a few basics which emerge from experience and must remain in focus for effectively projecting the professionalism of the Army and its soft power capability. After all, at the end of such operations the people must remember that soldiers are a breed apart, hard where required and the softest when needed.


A tale of two Sants Politicians hold their counsel

A tale of two Sants

THE entire country witnessed the collapse of governance will in the events leading to the conviction and sentencing of Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim. And a day after he earned two decades in prison, another self-proclaimed godman Rampal was arraigned before the court. He was acquitted for allegedly masterminding a spell of riotous frenzy by his supporters in a case whose denouement is also close. For that matter, though Ram Rahim was convicted of a charge that involved betraying the trust of vulnerable women, he too will shortly be arraigned for charges of murder. The only difference between the two godmen, both of whom ran veritable empires that brooked no challenge to their suzerainty, was that Rampal wasn’t charged with grave moral turpitude.But what was common between the two was that for all their teachings about egalitarianism and piety, they had assumed that their empyrean status among their apostles would grant them immunity from the temporal world of rules and regulations outside their dera gates. Once that was not to be, there is tacit encouragement to the bereft followers to go on a riotous frenzy. Another common element behind the travails of both self-anointed saints was the strange radio silence from politicians. The televised spectacle in the run-up to Ram Rahim’s sentencing was tailor-made for politicians to weigh in. Rarely has the political class willingly passed up an opportunity to insert itself in an event that had the whole country riveted.The politician is ever-willing to overlook indiscretions by the Babas because of the nature of the battle for votes where only the winner matters. Very few contestants, mostly those in it for a token contest, are loath to allow even a single unsolicited vote to escape their grasp. The Babas, with a complete sway over lakhs of followers, are a temptation a politician can hardly overlook. The politician is willing to let matters rest and wait for another day, perhaps when the Baba walks free, rather than risk antagonising his captive vote bank by taking a stand. Principles can wait for another day. 


Now, make a privacy law by Madabhushi Sridhar

A nine-judge bench of the Supreme Court, in a path-breaking judgment ruled that the right to privacy is a fundamental right, like the right to life. This verdict will impact national and global jurisprudence on privacy vis-a-vis information-based economy and governance.

Now, make a privacy law
Need of the hour: Parliament has to perform its constitutional obligation of making a law on privacy. Tribune photos

Madabhushi Sridhar

THE basic concept and definition of privacy rendered by Justice BP Jeevan Reddy in the Rajgopal case (1994) and the emphatic dissent of Justice Subbarao in the MP Sharma case formed the solid basis of the nine-judge bench recognising and declaring that the right to privacy is the intrinsic part of life under Article 21 and a part of the freedoms guaranteed by Part III of the Constitution. Now the Aadhaar link has to be decided on the Aadhaar of this unanimous order of the Supreme Court. Justice Chandrachud referred to the landmark order of Justice Jeevan Reddy, who said: “The right to privacy is implicit in the right to life and liberty guaranteed to the citizens of this country by Article 21. It is a ‘right to be let alone’. A citizen has a right to safeguard the privacy of his home, his family, marriage, procreation, motherhood, child-bearing and education among other matters. None can publish anything concerning the above matters without his consent — whether truthful or otherwise and whether laudatory or critical. If he does so, he would be violating the right to privacy of the person concerned and would be liable in an action for damages. The position may, however, be different, if a person voluntarily thrusts himself into controversy or voluntarily invites or raises a controversy”.  Recently, in the Ram Jethmalani case, the Supreme Court held the revelation of the details of the bank accounts of individuals without the establishing wrongdoing would be a violation of the right to privacy. The judges cited catena of orders from India and abroad to explain how privacy assumed fundamental importance as a basic right. This judgment will have a significant impact on the Government’s Aadhaar scheme, under which the state is collecting huge personal details and biometrics to identify beneficiaries for accessing social benefits under various welfare schemes.  The question that another five-judge bench of Supreme Court is going to decide is: Whether the Aadhaar programme is a breach of privacy, informational autonomy and bodily integrity?The Union contended that the right to privacy was not fundamental, while four state governments — Karnataka, West Bengal, Punjab and Puducherry —where non-BJP political parties are ruling, opposed the Centre’s contention and pleaded for the right of privacy. The Maharastra government said that it is a concept and not a stand-alone right.  This landmark declaration that it is a fundamental like the right to life will impact national and global jurisprudence on privacy vis-à-vis information-based economy and governance.The Supreme Court overruled its earlier verdicts in MP Sharma and Kharak Singh. As an eight-member bench in MP Sharma decided against the fundamental right status of privacy, this nine-member bench was necessitated. The Supreme Court prepositions subsequent to the Kharak Singh case were held to be correct position in law. The Attorney General’s argument of doubtful status of privacy based on the Supreme Court orders in the MP Sharma and Kharak Singh cases was rejected emphatically. In MP Singh, the Supreme Court held that a power of search and seizure is in any system of jurisprudence an overriding power of the State for the protection of social security and that power is necessarily regulated by law.  The Court felt that the Constitution makers did not subject the regulation by law of the power of search and seizure to a fundamental right of privacy. The decision in the Kharak Singh case held that clause (b) of Regulation 236, which provided for domiciliary visits at night, was violative of Article 21. The bench observed that Kharak Singh regards the sanctity of the home and the protection against unauthorised intrusion an integral element of “ordered liberty”.  The Supreme Court agreed with the dissent of Justice Subbarao in Kharak Singh. He held that the rights conferred by Part III have overlapping areas. Where a law is challenged as infringing the right to freedom of movement under Article 19(1) (d) and the liberty of the individual under Article 21, it must satisfy the tests laid down in Article 19 (2) as well as the requirements of Article 21. Justice Subba Rao recognised a constitutionally protected right to privacy, considering it as an ingredient of personal liberty.  Justice Chandrachud’ draft was signed by Chief Justice Khehar, Justices RK Agrawal, Abdul Nazeer, and approved by  Justices Chalameshwar, S A Bobde, R F Nariman, Abhay Manohar Sapre, Sanjay Kishan Kaul, by separate judgments.  Referring to the informational privacy, he says: “In aggregation, they disclose the nature of the personality: food habits, language, health, hobbies, sexual preferences, friendships, ways of dress and political affiliation. In aggregation, information provides a picture of the being: of things which matter and those that don’t, of things to be disclosed and those best hidden”.The bench finally cautioned that the judicial recognition of the existence of a constitutional right of privacy is not an exercise in the nature of amending the Constitution nor is the Court embarking on a constitutional function of that nature which is entrusted to Parliament.  The Parliament has to perform its constitutional obligation of making a law on this vital point. Such a law if made should not encroach upon privacy, and if it does it has to withstand the touchstone of permissible restrictions on fundamental rights. Such a law shall stipulate a procedure which is fair, just and reasonable.  Thus, a law of privacy with reasonable restrictions to advance security and public interest is the need of the hour. The writer, a Central Information Commissioner, is a former Professor of Law at NALSAR University of Law, Hyderabad.


Kargil porters demand govt jobs

Kargil porters demand govt jobs
Members of the All J&K Army Porters’ Union protest in Jammu on Sunday. Tribune photo

Tribune News Service

Jammu, August 20

The All J&K Army Porters’ Union has alleged that they were recruited in their respective areas by the Army as ‘Army civilian porters’ during the Kargil war from 1999 to 2004 but they were not given jobs by the government despite assurances to this effect.The union members, hailing from Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Akhnoor, Poonch and Rajouri, while briefing the media today alleged that they served in most difficult terrains during the war and many porters lost their lives.They added that the government had given financial help as well as jobs to kin of the porters killed during the war while the rest were waiting for their engagement as per promises made by the government.“After the Kargil war, the Army authorities verbally assured us and handed over certificates to every individual porter and promised us that preference would be given to Kargil war porters during the recruitment. It is very difficult for us to earn livelihood for our family members. We spent precious time of our life for the sake of our motherland,” a statement said.“The government has framed a policy for surrendered militants who were involved in anti-national activities but the ill-fated Army porters are still deprived of jobs,” it added.


Army Chief Rawat to visit Ladakh; to review border security

Army Chief Rawat to visit Ladakh; to review border security
Army chief Gen Bipin Rawat

New Delhi, August 17Army chief Gen Bipin Rawat will pay a three-day visit to Ladakh beginning Sunday during which he will take stock of the security preparedness along the border with China besides discussing key operational matters with top commanders, official sources said on Thursday.The Army Chief’s visit to Ladakh comes days after Indian border guards foiled an attempt by Chinese soldiers to enter Indian territory along the banks of Pangong lake in Ladakh.The Chief of Army Staff will pay a three-day visit to Ladakh from Sunday during which he will review the security situation and present ceremonial colours to one of the units, the sources told PTI.They said Gen Rawat will discuss major operational matters with top commanders in Ladakh.On Tuesday, soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) tried to enter the Indian side in two areas — Finger Four and Finger Five — twice but on both the occasions their attempts were thwarted by alert Indian troops.The assessment by the security establishment here is that Chinese soldiers may resort to more such attempt to intrude into the Indian side and there was a need to enhance the existing security arrangement along the border.The incidents in Ladakh took place amid a faceoff between Indian and Chinese armies in Dokalam in India-Bhutan- China trijunction which has entered the third month.The Army officers of India and China had met yesterday in Leh’s Chusul sector where Indian side raised the issue of attempt by Chinese soldiers to enter Indian territory along the banks of Pangong lake.Sources said the Chinese side had taken an aggressive stand at the meeting and even sought to blame the Indian troops for Tuesday’s skirmishes.They said the meeting also deliberated on ways to maintain peace and tranquillity along the border in Ladakh.The Chinese troops had managed to enter up to Finger Four area in the region from where they were sent back. This area has been a bone of contention between India and China as both claim it to be a part of their territory.After Chinese troopers found their path blocked by ITBP personnel who formed a human chain, they began hurling stones, prompting a swift retaliation by Indian border guards.Personnel from both sides received minor injuries and the situation was brought under control after the customary banner drill under which both sides hold banners before stepping back to their respective positions.Two-thirds of the Pangong Lake are controlled by China while one-third of it is controlled by India. — PTI 

 

 

India, China unlikely to exchange I-Day greetings

India, China unlikely to exchange I-Day greetings

Ajay Banerjee

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, August 14

It is unlikely that the People’s Liberation Army of China will attend the ceremonial border personnel meeting with the Indian Army tomorrow.The two countries are locked in a military standoff at the Doklam plateau since June 16.As per the laid down protocol, the Indian Army, on August 15, hosts the People’s Liberation Army of China for a ceremonial border personnel meeting at five designated meeting points along the 3,488-km Line of Actual Control (LAC).Top sources in Delhi confirmed tonight that Beijing might not send the PLA troops as this could indicate a thaw. By not attending the meeting, China would indicate a status quo in terms of the standoff.The previous such ceremonial meeting that was to be held on August 1 did not materialise. China was to host the meeting.Ceremonial meetings are not like the usual flag-meetings, these are events to know each other socially, there is lunch hosted and a cultural show. There are five such meeting points along the LAC and ceremonial meetings are hosted at all these points, Depsang in sub-sector north and Sappangur Gap (both on eastern Ladakh), Nathu La in Sikkim and Bumla and Kibithoo in Arunachal Pradesh. The last flag-meeting between two high-ranking military officers of India and China failed to end the stalemate on August 11.A Major General-rank officer was leading the Indian team and was matched by an equal rank officer from the Chinese army.The two sides stuck to their stated stands. India asked China to end its road construction activity and China asked India to withdraw from what it said was its territory. India fears Beijing is aiming to make a road to cross east of the Torsa nullah and reach the Jampheri ridge from where it gets a clear view of the Siliguri corridor, the narrow sliver of land that connects North-East with mainland India.


WAR BUT NO WAR by Syed Ata Hasnain

As the standoff at Doklam Plateau in Bhutan, the 89 square kilometres area which China lays claim to, enters the ninth week  and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval back from Beijing,  the Chinese game plan is becoming increasingly clearer. In early Jun 2017, China had taken Bhutan and India by surprise with aggressive moves to build a road through the Doklam Plateau to the southern end of the Chumbi Valley near Trijunction. Doklam is disputed between China and Bhutan; India is not a party to that dispute. However, Doklam lies on the eastern side of the Chumbi Valley opposite our defences on the western side of the same valley. Any construction activity there changes the strategic picture with enhanced Chinese capability to operate against the southern end of Chumbi. India is even more sensitive to the extension of the road because that provides capability to the Chinese to threaten the Siliguri Corridor, commonly called the Chicken’s Neck, lying fifty kilometres further south but through some very rugged terrain. 

When Bhutan’s protests did not work, it requested India for help which India is duty bound to extend under provisions of the 2007 India Bhutan Friendship Treaty. Elements of the Indian Army moved into the Bhutanese territory and without firing a shot became an obstacle to further Chinese advance along the road. The kind of jostling seen on amateur videos was reminiscent of the Nathula standoff of 1967 although the latter was an eyeball to eyeball contact with bayonets at the ready. At Nathula there were heavy casualties on both sides, although more on the Chinese side, after the gung ho Chinese decision to use force to stop the Indian Army from constructing a wire fence to demarcate the exact border alignment at Nathula post. 

Unlike Nathula 1967, the Chinese response this time has been in different domains. First it refused to allow the annual  Mansarovar Yatra to proceed from Nathula on lame pretexts. Thereafter it commenced a vitriolic psychological campaign in its state controlled media, such as the like of which has not been witnessed in many years. The choice of words was actually unbecoming of a responsible power who is also a member of P5. That vitriol grew worse by the day and has yet to seize. Third, it conducted a brigade level fire power exercise in Tibet to project its readiness to employ the military option and intimidate India. While no Chinese mobilization or troop concentration has been reported there were enough threats to project as if a war was about to break out. The issue for us to examine is whether this was an accidental and unrealized event which just spiraled out of hand or was it deliberate.

Strategic military sense would have dictated to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) that attainment of whatever political objectives it had set would not be easy. By all reckoning Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambition of removing all opposition and obtaining and enhancing his influence substantially at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in Autumn 2017 is the core reason for the maverick Chinese actions. Xi Jinping has emerged as one of the most powerful Chinese leaders in the post Deng Xiao Ping era and is actually ambitious enough to attempt overtaking the image of even the father of China’s modernization. However, the projection of diplomatic, economic and military strength is an essential element of Xi Jinping’s strategy. The politico economic strategy has been largely displayed with the image building Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) conference in Beijing in May 2017; the attendance by even Japan and the US was a major diplomatic victory for Xi Jinping. This is further enhanced with the US reliance on China to rein in North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and prevent his threatening gestures. Xi Jinping had earlier initiated a host of measures to strengthen the effectiveness of the Chinese Armed Forces and reorganized the structure. The only thing perhaps left for Xin Jinping was to display China’s military might a tad more than just at parades, under his leadership; perhaps perceived by him as a virtual certification of his contribution to the Chinese nation. Earlier he had intimidated and tested the international community’s will on the issue of South China Sea by refusing to accept and implement the decision of the international tribunal. However, display of military intimidation there is fraught with higher risk.

The choice of Chumbi Valley was perhaps triggered by the decision of both India and Bhutan to avoid attendance of the BRI conference in Beijing; two nations noticeable by their absence and both being China’s immediate neighbors. China hoped that the proximity of the trigger point to the strategically vulnerable Siliguri Corridor would force both India and Bhutan to capitulate against Chinese demands and pressure. There doesn’t appear any intent to trigger major hostilities because there could be no guarantee of success in a localized exchange and an unpredictable war could go out of hand at this crucial moment.  In the worst case scenario of such an exchange the scope could quickly be extended to other zones in Ladakh, Central Sector or Arunachal Pradesh thus causing greater intimidation without going to war. It probably was appreciated by the PLA that India would unlikely risk a conflagration so close to its vulnerability and would buckle under pressure. It perhaps did not think through to the last order implications that an extended Indian resistance and acceptance of mutual withdrawal would amount to a strategic Indian victory. That is the likely reason one can ascribe today to a possibly long standoff extending into autumn because the Chinese cannot afford to accept withdrawal before the autumn meeting of the 19th National Congress. That is also the reason why some lower level intimidation by the PLA is likely to continue in other areas; Barahoti in Central Sector has already seen an incursion two weeks ago. It could happen in the traditional areas of Ladakh and Arunachal; the idea being to boost the eye ball attraction through propaganda.

Those who were imagining the feasibility of the triggering of a full spectrum war between India and China must be clear that under no circumstance does such a showdown add to political objectives that China seeks in the long run or Xi Jinping’s current strategy. It knows that India has no major political ambitions, at least for the current. China has enough problems to contend with in terms of Japan and South East Asia. It should be pragmatic enough to ensure that creating another major adversary extending into the Indian Ocean Region serves Chinese interests no purpose. China’s growth story still revolves around the security of its Sea Lines of Communication (SLsOC) which are vulnerable and India can make them even more vulnerable, if it chooses to. Even a short limited spectrum war involving exchanges on the border and possibly one or two exchanges of surface to surface missiles, more as messaging, is unlikely to achieve any objectives and would show China in poor light with inability to press for its objectives.

This analysis would be incomplete without a positive word on the Indian strategy of ‘sticking it out’. Quietly, without unnecessary bluster, India has prevented a showdown and yet displayed strategic resolve. This is one of the most difficult things to achieve in strategic affairs. What must continue is the dignified and quiet demeanor that has been on display from the Indian side. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s recent speech in Parliament has been the most appropriate display of sensible discretion. Sometimes victory lies in the realm of silence and dignity. The analyses in the media by knowledgeable analysts have also been shorn of bluster but yet fairly accurate.

Next month’s BRICS summit to be held in the Chinese city of Xiamen and to be attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is being viewed with much interest. However, China has often displayed its ability to keep issues of concern quite well separated. BRICS is more about economics and although the sensitivity of India’s non-attendance of the BRI conference may continue to rankle China it is unlikely that it will not adopt a business as usual attitude towards India at the upcoming conference. However, memory of the visit of then Foreign Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to China in 1979 with the war on Vietnam launched even with his presence there, needs to be recalled.

The last thing the Indian media or the Indian state should do is to celebrate prematurely. Nothing has yet been achieved and classically a stalemate continues, probably will continue for some time. The only thing to be positive about is that war was almost there and yet not there.  It should be enough of a signal to us that it is time to seriously look at our defence capability and infrastructure and review the long dead military transformation which was to take place in the first decade of the millennium.

(The writer is a former General Officer Commanding 15 Corps, now associated with the Vivekanand International Foundation and Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies)


China’s claims on Arunachal meaningless: Chinese scholar

China’s claims on Arunachal meaningless: Chinese scholar

Beijing, August 4

In an unusual move, a Chinese strategic analyst has questioned Beijing’s “national obsession” with Arunachal Pradesh, saying that the state is only a “chicken rib” and hardly an “asset” for the country.

China claims Arunachal Pradesh as “South Tibet” and in April Beijing had announced Chinese “standardised” names for six places in retaliation to Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama’s visit there.

The Chinese state media had said the move to rename the places was aimed at reaffirming China’s claim over the state.

But Union minister of state for home affairs Kiren Rijiju, who accompanies the Dalai Lama to Arunachal, had made clear that the state is “an inseparable part of India”.

The Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal was the seventh since he fled from Tibet through Tawang and sought refuge in India.

“Although China and India have been in a rocky relationship over the disputed territory for years, the disputed territory, which has been a national obsession, is hardly an asset to China,” Wang Tao Tao said.

“In realistic terms the area is just a chicken rib for China,” Wang wrote on the popular Chinese website zhihu.com — which is akin to Quora — mostly covers security matters.

Interestingly, the article came at a time when India and China have been engaged in a border standoff for more than a month after Chinese troops tried to construct a road in Doklam area in the Sikkim sector. India has protested the move saying it would allow China to cut India’s access to its northeastern states.

Social media websites and blogs — like the zhihu.com — have become popular over the years in China, where millions access them on their mobile phones.

“The territorial dispute between China and India is essentially meaningless, because this disputed territory for India and China, not only difficult to development, but the moral, economic, political and management costs are extremely high,” Wang said.

“In this case, it is hard for China to actually go to war with India for these chicken ribs as long as it does not hamper security interests,” he said, suggesting that any contest over Arunachal will have adverse impact on rest of the Tibet potentially strengthen separatist forces.

“Objectively looking, the potential for separation in Tibet could become more powerful,” he said.

Wang said China has failed to fully address Tibetan identity issues.

“While the land of southern Tibet is very different from the bitter cold in northern Tibet, agriculture is relatively developed, will also virtually strengthen the ability of Tibetans to support themselves,” Wang said.

Moreover, the area is vulnerable to attacks and cannot provide superior strategic depth and security interests for China’s inland like the vast Tibetan plateau, he said. PTI


Army sets Sept deadline to end south Kashmir terror

Army sets Sept deadline to end south Kashmir terror
Tribune file photo

Arun Joshi

Tribune News Service

Jammu, July 19

The Indian Army has set a deadline of September-end to eliminate most of the terrorists, if not all, in south Kashmir with the full backing of political groups of all hues in the Valley, highly-placed sources have told The Tribune.They said the Army has “complete political support of the government and the Opposition in Kashmir”.“All of them are nationalists notwithstanding their articulation of different nature, which may sound offensive to the sensitivity of the times, situation and the place,” a top-ranking officer observed.(Follow The Tribune on Facebook; and Twitter @thetribunechd)Having realised the current volatile situation in south Kashmir, that has become synonymous with the Kashmir problem at the international level, the Army has embarked on a “surrender or face bullet” aggressive strategy.South Kashmir has posed a serious challenge to the security apparatus and has also changed the narrative after the July 8, 2016 killing of militant commander Burhan Wani.The Army has taken on terrorists in a big way with the help of the local police. The impression of “terrorists being more powerful” is being dispelled by the frequent anti-terror operations. There are approximately 100 terrorists in south Kashmir and many have been eliminated, including top-ranking ones like Sabzar Bhat, Bashir Lashkari and Junaid Matoo.“This is what we are supposed to do and that’s what we are doing. Our primary objective is to remove the atmosphere of fear,” the commander said.