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No party should complicate border tension’: China after PM’s Ladakh visit

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses soldiers during his surprise visit to Ladakh, at Nimmoo in Leh on Friday.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses soldiers during his surprise visit to Ladakh, at Nimmoo in Leh on Friday. (ANI)

Complication of tension at the Sino-Indian border should be avoided, China said on Friday, within hours of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise visit to Ladakh in the backdrop of the ongoing hostile situation between the two Himalayan neighbours.

The Chinese foreign ministry also said New Delhi should avoid “strategic miscalculation on China.”

“India and China are in communication and negotiations on lowering the temperatures through military and diplomatic channels. No party should engage in any action that may complicate the situation at this point,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, said at the regular ministry briefing on Friday.

Modi, during his Ladakh visit, was accompanied by chief of defence staff (CDS) General Bipin Rawat and Army chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane.

Watch: China responds to PM Narendra Modi’s Ladakh visit

The PM toured one of the forward locations in Nimu where he interacted with personnel of the Army, Air Force and Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP).

Modi’s visit to the border is being closely monitored in China as New Delhi begins a calibrated response – including economic steps – after 20 Indian army soldiers were killed in eastern Ladakh in a violent clash with People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops on June 15. An unspecified number of Chinese soldiers also died in the clash.

Asked about India planning to ban Chinese companies from building roads in the country, Zhao said New Delhi should focus on “common interests in bilateral relations”.

“Certain politicians in India have been issuing remarks that are detrimental to our bilateral relations. Our bilateral relations need to be held with the concerted efforts, Indian side should work with us towards the same goal, to uphold the general picture of our common interests in bilateral relations,” Zhao added.

“Setting artificial blocks to our concrete and practical cooperation will also harm India’s interest. We will take necessary measures to uphold legitimate rights of Chinese businesses in India,” Zhao sai

Zhao sidestepped a question about New Delhi’s security-related concerns that prompted it to ban 59 Chinese mobile apps on Monday.

“…we should also be aware that India and China are major developing countries, accelerating the renewal and development are historical missions for both of us. To this end we have to respect and support each other. This is also in the long-term interest of both sides,” he said.

“If we show misgiving and engage in conflicts, this is not the right way and also go against the shared aspiration of our people. So, we have to follow the consensus reached between the leaders of our two countries, and proceed from the overall picture of our bilateral relations.”

“The Indian side should not have strategic miscalculation on China. We hope it will work with China to uphold the overall picture of our bilateral relations,” Zhao added.


PM Modi has made his choice | HT Editorial

PM Modi sent out a clear and unambiguous substantive message to China that India, and the rest of the world, will challenge its “expansionism”.

PM Modi sent out a clear and unambiguous substantive message to China that India, and the rest of the world, will challenge its “expansionism”. ( REUTERS)

On Friday morning, Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi shaped India’s future foreign policy and security doctrine for years to come. First, by making an unscheduled, surprise visit to Ladakh at a time when the border stand-off with China, because of Chinese aggression, continues, he sent out a symbolic and political message, both within and outside the country, that India will stand up to defend its territorial integrity, in all circumstances.

But, more importantly, while speaking to soldiers in the frontlines, PM Modi sent out a clear and unambiguous substantive message to China that India, and the rest of the world, will challenge its “expansionism”. By suggesting that either expansionists lose or are forced to mend their ways, the PM was telling China that the era of patience with its predatory tactics is over. By mentioning that India seeks peace — but peace comes from strength and India has done and will do what it takes to build its strength — the PM was telling China not to think that its assessment of the asymmetry of power between the two countries will make India retreat in the face of aggression. By repeatedly highlighting the bravery of soldiers and honouring them, the PM was preparing the Indian armed forces, as well as the rest of the country, for the challenges that may lie ahead. And by acknowledging Ladakh as India’s pride, the people of Ladakh as patriots, and the sites of Ladakh as having witnessed Indian bravery, he was laying an unequivocal claim to the region — all of it — as Indian territory, which is not up for negotiation.

In the face of Chinese attempts to change the status quo at the Line of Actual Control, and the lack of substantive movement through negotiations at the military and diplomatic level, India had a choice. One option was to underplay the incursions, keep the issue in cold freeze, and slowly normalise the India-China relationship. The other option was to recognise the threat, decide to take on the adversary irrespective of potential costs, and reframe the entire framework of the relationship to impose costs on China. PM Modi has made his choice by picking the second option. It is now up to China to decide whether it wants to risk an escalatory spiral at the border and beyond at this juncture, or whether it is willing to restore the status quo and make peace. PM Modi has made it clear that while India hopes for the latter, it is prepared for the former.


Resisting Chinese encroachment | Opinion

India has to recognise that Chinese tech is a weapon that will be used against Indian interests. Bar Chinese telecom infra from India’s 5G network. Political trust will shape digital flows

India has to recognise that Chinese tech is a weapon that will be used against Indian interests. Bar Chinese telecom infra from India’s 5G network. Political trust will shape digital flows(Bloomberg)

On June 29, the minister for electronics and information technology and law and justice, Ravi Shankar Prasad, tweeted that “For safety, security, defence, sovereignty & integrity of India and to protect data & privacy of people of India the government has banned 59 mobile apps.” After the usual partisan bluster surrounding this move subsides, India must operationalise and strengthen this momentous decision. India, its people, and its territory that are now increasingly digital, must be protected from China’s encroachment and influence.

This long-term response has to be shaped by three ideas. First, India must not contribute to the success, proliferation and performance of digital weapons that will be ranged against it. China’s tech must be recognised as one. Second, it must wean itself away from an iniquitous trade relationship that makes it dependent on a country that seeks to harm it. And, third, India needs to step out of the shadow that stunts its own economic growth, diminishes its political clout and limits its digital ambitions.

The presence of China’s hardware and platforms in India’s digital ecosystem constitutes a long-term security threat. Arriving at this conclusion requires no strenuous leap of logic. A level-headed assessment of China’s stated intentions and observable actions is enough. China has manipulated democratic means to transmit its propaganda and advertised its way to ensure suitable reportage and headlines. It has leveraged WeChat to interfere in Canadian politics, and to intercept content beyond its jurisdiction, and adopted western social media platforms to target dissidents abroad, exacerbate racial tensions in the United States (US), interfere in Taiwan’s political processes and spread disinformation about the coronavirus. China has entrenched the influence of its tech platforms in key global institutions such as the United Nations in an attempt to redraw the rules of information flows and the ethical applications of emerging technologies like facial recognition systems.

These are fundamental to China’s great power ambitions — they assist Beijing to expand its “discourse power”, develop indigenous technologies, create lock-ins through standards and infrastructure, weaponise its economic and technological interdependence, and emerge as a technology superpower. Relations with India are inconsequential to Beijing’s imagination of the world. India has to look out for itself. This new mindset to review engagement with China tech is a vital first step to protect itself.

China will continue to gather information on Indians. More worrisome is the insidious ability of the Communist Party of China (CPC) to interfere in or influence India’s political and social spheres. During the Doklam stand-off, the security establishment discovered that the Chinese-owned UC Browser was filtering certain news on Android handsets in India to shape perceptions and outcomes — classic information warfare in the digital age. Recently, we have seen content critical of China being taken down on one of the banned apps and moderation of other incidents and images as well.

This is not unique to Chinese platforms. But far-reaching national security legislations, and subservience to a one man-led party that is inimical to India, make their continuance untenable. Indian democracy, howsoever flawed, must steer clear of the digital “tea rooms” owned by the CPC.

Will this Indian decision cause economic harm to Chinese platforms? In terms of revenues, clearly it will not. In terms of value, tremendously so. Platforms rely on network effects to scale — every additional user drives up valuations and the aggregate data that they produce feeds into other commercial and research and development activities and product development. Indian eyeballs and data should not fuel Chinese malfeasance directed against them.

Similarly, India must bar China’s telecommunications infrastructure from its 5G networks. It is time to say “No way Huawei”. Countries such as Singapore, the US, Australia and others have already signalled different degrees of intent to manage the Dragon. New Delhi’s decision should strengthen this trend and encourage others. Political trust is increasingly going to shape the direction of technology flows. India must work with its allies and partners through new initiatives such as the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence to compete with and contain China.

India’s actions will invite consequences. China will respond using other aspects of the economic relationship. India’s dependence on electronics, pharmaceuticals and other industrial inputs are well-documented and easy pickings. China’s response could manifest itself along the Line of Actual Control or through cyber intrusions. China’s ability to impose costs must serve to motivate India.

Bilateral trade is healthy when there is a balance. With China, it is a doubled-barrelled shotgun trained between India’s eyes. It is important that we fix this now as a three trillion dollar economy. Otherwise, all our future growth will only serve to strengthen the entity which seeks to weaken us.

India’s decision has come at a time when economic activity is already under siege from the Wuhan virus and when major economies are also questioning their dependence on China. A reconfiguration of value chains is inevitable. Public opinion favours this and the short-term pain will be acceptable to many. As India restarts its pandemic-stalled economy, let us create value chains that are not of dubious origin.

Samir Saran and Akhil Deo are with Observer Research Foundation. They are the authors of Pax Sinica: Implications for the Indian Dawn
The views expressed are personal

1 terrorist killed, 2 soldiers injured in ongoing encounter in J-K’s Kulgam

An encounter erupted between the security personnel and terrorists during a search and cordon operation in Kulgam.

An encounter erupted between the security personnel and terrorists during a search and cordon operation in Kulgam. (ANI/For Representative Purposes Only)
     An unidentified terrorist was killed and two soldiers were injured on Saturday in a gun fight, which is underway in Jammu and Kashmir’s Kulgam, the police said.

Gurinderpal Singh, Kulgam’s superintendent of police, said a search and cordon operation was launched in Arreh village in Kulgam under the Kulgam police station’s jurisdiction.

Singh said the terrorists fired upon the joint forces triggering an encounter.

Personnel of the Indian Army’s Rashtriya Rifles, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Jammu and Kashmir police are involved in the operation.

According to sources, two to three terrorists are present in the village.


Not welcome: Japan’s Shinzo Abe could cancel state visit by China’s Xi Jinping

Japan believes that China has used this pandemic as a blank cheque to act as an aggressor while the world battles Covid-19. It expressed its displeasure over China’s recent moves in Galwan Valley and Hong Kong’s new security law.

Japan has expressed its displasure with China’s actions in Hong Kong, its intrusion into Galwan Valley and its continious efforts to destabilize the situation in East China Sea.

Japan has expressed its displasure with China’s actions in Hong Kong, its intrusion into Galwan Valley and its continious efforts to destabilize the situation in East China Sea. (REUTERS)

Chinese president Xi Jinping’s state visit to Japan, initially scheduled for April but put off due to the coronavirus pandemic, is set to be scuttled by Tokyo after loud protests within Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Xi’s state visit would have been the first by a Chinese President since 2008.

Tensions have been simmering between China and Japan for some time but the latest provocation for LDP lawmakers to formally ask the government to reconsider Xi’s visit is China’s imposition of the national security law over Hong Kong. Japanese lawmakers are deeply concerned about China’s clampdown in Hong Kong. Japan fears the sweeping Chinese security law that came into effect this week would undermine the rights of Japanese people and companies in Hong Kong.

Also Read: Indo-China stand-off: Global support for India grows

Japan has accused China of exploiting the coronavirus pandemic to push its aggressive diplomacy and tighten its grip over Hong Kong, a global financial hub where Japan has significant interests. About 1,400 Japanese companies have a presence in Hong Kong, which is the world’s largest importer of Japanese agricultural goods. The Japanese business community is concerned that the Chinese national security legislation would shake the foundations of Hong Kong.

Also Read: PM Modi’s surprise visit to Ladakh is a game-changer: Experts

Japan has strongly criticised the move, saying it erodes Hong Kong’s freedom and goes against the promise of allowing a high degree of autonomy in the former British colony for 50 years after its return to China in 1997. Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi issued a statement of regret over the legislation in which he urged China to respect the rights of Japanese people and companies operating in Hong Kong.

China’s Territorial Hunger

The visit by Chinese leader could have helped to smoothen bilateral ties long frayed over wartime history and territorial issues. In recent weeks, however, China has continued to send ships to waters near the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Since April this year, Japan has spotted 67 Chinese Coast Guard ships near these waters, heightening the already tense situation brewing over the mishandling of coronavirus pandemic by China. Japan’s Defence Minister Taro Kono said China’s behaviour over the East China Sea Islands was jeopardising peace in the region. The statement came amid long-simmering tensions between the two countries over the Senkaku Islands in Japan and Diaoyu in China which falls in the East China Sea.

Also Read: Japan opposes any ‘unilateral attempt to change status quo’ on LAC

Rhetoric has risen in recent days, with Japan reporting increased activity from China in the area. Japan had scrambled fighter jets after the Chinese military flew near Japanese airspace. If Japan retaliates, the move could trigger a massive military conflict in the region which can involve the United States in the matter as Washington is bound to defend Tokyo in pursuant of the defence treaty between the two countries.

At a recent news conference, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga stressed that the Senkaku Islands “are under our control and are unquestionably our territory, historically and under international law. We think it is an extremely serious matter that these activities continue”.

“We will respond firmly and calmly to the Chinese side,” the top Japanese official said. China’s claims that the Diaoyu Islands and its affiliated islands are an inherent part of China’s territory and it is Beijing’s “inherent right” to carry out patrols and law enforcement activities in these waters. Communist Party of China’s mouth-piece, The Global Times wrote that the “Japanese conservatives disrupt recovering China-Japan ties by hyping the Diaoyu Islands dispute”.

The chain of uninhabited disputed islands lie east of the Chinese mainland and south-west of Japan’s Okinawa Island. They are close to strategically important shipping lanes and offer rich fishing grounds with vast reserves of oil and natural gas in this swathe of the sea has made these islands that barely covers an area of 7 square kilometre coveted by both Japan and China. In 2012, the Japanese government bought three of the islands from their private Japanese owner who have held them since the 1930s, a move which sparked a new row and protests in Chinese cities.

Since then, Chinese ships have been sailing in and out of what Japan says are its territorial waters, prompting fears of a clash.

Amid the growing domestic disquiet over China’s behaviour and heightened security concerns, Japanese Defence Minister Taro Kono also sounded a cautious note about welcoming Xi, saying that the security situation facing Japan should be taken into consideration. “As Defence Minister responsible for security, I will make my voice heard within the government,” he said in a press conference held last week.


US supercarriers in South China Sea, ambitious Beijing stretched on multiple fronts

The US deployment comes after Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army Navy conducted military drills in the contested waters, provoking a sharp reaction from neighbouring states and Washington.

Two nuclear-powered aircraft carriers - USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan - have been deployed by the US Navy in the South China Sea.

Two nuclear-powered aircraft carriers – USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan – have been deployed by the US Navy in the South China Sea.(U.S. Navy)

The US Navy is deploying its two nuclear-powered aircraft carriers – USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan – to conduct exercises in the South China Sea, piling pressure on an ambitious Beijing that has opened multiple fronts including one with India along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh. The US supercarriers are reported to be crossing Luzon Strait, the strait between Taiwan and Luzon island of the Philippines that connects Philippine Sea to the South China Sea.

The US deployment comes after Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army Navy conducted military drills in the contested waters, provoking a sharp reaction from neighbouring states and Washington. The US navy has said its operations in the South China Sea were designed to “support free and open Indo-Pacific”.

“The purpose is to show an unambiguous signal to our partners and allies that we are committed to regional security and stability,” Rear Admiral George M Wikoff commander of the strike group led by USS Ronald Reagan told Wall Street Journal, which first reported the exercises.

China claims 90% of the South China Sea through which about $3 trillion of trade passes each year. Over the last decade, Beijing has gone ahead to build man-made islands and set up military installations including military-grade airfields in several areas.

Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also lay claim to parts of the South China Sea, setting up many of the 21 disputes that an aggressive Beijing is embroiled in.

For now, the most serious crisis is on the India-China border where armies of the two countries are locked in standoffs at multiple points in Ladakh. India has deployed its soldiers along with 1,597 km-long LAC along the entire stretch of the border in East Ladakh, prepared for any eventuality.

But the LAC isn’t the only part of China’s border where it has been attempting to bulldoze its way through to expand its territory.

China’s military drills in the disputed waters have been sharply criticised by its neighbours. Philippines and Vietnam had last week spoken of growing insecurity in southeast Asia at an ASEAN event last Friday amid concerns that China is using the cover of the coronavirus pandemic to step up its presence in the disputed waters.

China’s PLA Navy had started the five-day military drills on July 1, prompting Vietnam to file its formal protest to the Chinese foreign ministry. China’s drills are being held near the Paracel Islands claimed by Vietnam and Philippines.

In its strongest statement yet, the Philippines has said the exercises are being held in waters claimed by Vietnam.

“Should the exercises spill over to Philippine territory, then China is forewarned that it will be met with the severest response, diplomatic and whatever else is appropriate,” Philippines foregn ministry said in a statement, according to news agency AP. The Philippines has a defence cooperation pact with the US.

The US naval exercises come a day after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed solidarity with China’s neighbours. “The PRC’s (People’s Republic of China) military exercise in disputed waters of the South China Sea is highly provocative. We oppose Beijing’s unlawful claims. Period,” Pompeo tweeted on Friday.

Pompeo has been outspoken in his criticism of China’s expansionist approach, describing Beijing as a “rogue actor” for escalating tensions with India and other countries. Last month, he had underlined the degree to which the US is deploying its considerable military might with an almost single-minded determination to contain China.

Shinzo Abe’s Japan, which had been looking at improving ties with China till some months back, is set to cancel a state visit by Xi Jinping that had been deferred from April this year due to the coronavirus pandemic. Japan, which has raised its deployment around its Senkaku Islands that China eyes, has been upset with Beijing over its practice of sending its ships to the Senkaku Islands. Since April this year, Japan has spotted 67 Chinese Coast Guard ships near the islands in the East China Sea.

The 8 uninhabited islands and rocks in the East China Sea controlled by Japan have a total area of about 7 sq km and lie north-east of Taiwan and east of the Chinese mainland but are important because they are close to important shipping lanes and lie near potential oil and gas reserves.


‘China resorting to confrontation to punish India for rejecting BRI’

‘China resorting to confrontation to punish India for rejecting BRI’

Naypyitaw (Myanmar), July 3, 2020: The confrontation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China is the result of Beijing wanting to punish New Delhi for rejecting the multinational infrastructure programme — Belt and Road Initiative — and has nothing to do with the border dispute between the two countries, according to a veteran Swedish journalist.

In an interview to The Irrawaddy, Bertil Lintner said that China is taking advantage of the coronavirus pandemic, flexing its muscles in the Indo-Pacific region with a new security law in Hong Kong, Chinese fighter jets entering Taiwan’s airspace, the ramming of Vietnamese and Philippine fishing boats in the disputed South China Sea, a month-long standoff between a Malaysian oil exploration vessel and a Chinese survey ship in the same waters, and an open confrontation with the Indians along the LAC.

“First of all, the confrontation along the LAC between India and China has nothing to do with the border as such, if it should be on this or that barren rock in an uninhabited area,” he said.

“It is a question of strategic rivalries between Asia’s two giants and, more specifically, China’s wanting to punish India for rejecting its multinational infrastructure programme, the BRI, and show the neighbours who rule the roost in the region,” he added.

China wants to become the world’s leading superpower, and those aggressive postures and the more “benign” BRI are part of that long-term strategy, he said.

Tensions have been escalating along the LAC since May. The Chinese and Indian troops had engaged in a number of confrontations along the LAC.

The border tensions between India and China heightened after 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives in a violent face-off in Galwan Valley on June 15-16 after an attempt by the Chinese troops to unilaterally change the status quo during the de-escalation. Indian intercepts revealed that the Chinese side suffered 43 casualties including dead and seriously injured in the face-off.

When asked about Myanmar China Economic Corridor (MCEC), Litner said that the passage holds more importance to China because it can help Beijing in controlling the insurgents in Myanmar as well as playing a role in domestic politics.

“CPEC is also located in westernmost China, far from the country’s industrial centres. Therefore, the Myanmar-China Economic Corridor is far more important to China. There, they can control the insurgents as well as playing a role in domestic politics. The Ruili-Muse border crossing is much closer to China’s industrial centres and major cities than CPEC,” Litner said.

On the importance of the ASEAN grouping at the time when China is flexing its muscles in the region, the journalist is of the view that the group has no common policies and there is actually minimal cooperation between its member states.

This divergence of political systems and views makes it impossible for ASEAN to agree on its most fundamental principle — consensus, he said.


Modi in Leh to review situation post June 15 Galwan clashes

NEW DELHI:Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Leh on Friday morning to review the situation 18 days after a violent faceoff in Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh with the Chinese forces, in which 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives.

Modi reached one of the forward locations in Nimu and has interacted with personnel of the Army, Air Force and ITBP, sources said. Located at 11, 000 feet, this is among the tough terrains, surrounded by the Zanskar range and on the banks of the Indus.

The Galwan clash occurred at the south bank of the river, which flows in an east-west direction before its confluence with Shayok river on June 15.

The Chinese side has not yet revealed the number of casualties on its side.

It was the first casualties faced by the Indian Army in a clash with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army since 1975 when an Indian patrol was ambushed by Chinese troops in Arunachal Pradesh.


India must keep Beijing on tenterhooks, and wisely use its economic statecraft

A knee jerk disruption in trade ties will hurt Indian businesses, especially at a time when the economy is beginning to re-adjust to the new normal of Covid-19.

PM Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping | Commons

PM Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping | Commons
As India comes to terms with Chinese border aggression, New Delhi is working on a number of options across a range of domains in order to impose costs on Beijing for its misadventure. One particular sector which has been in the limelight is trade and economics. It is indeed ironical that this should be the case as one of the claims made by those supporting greater economic engagement has been that it induces greater cooperative behaviour between state actors. And for a relationship like India-China which has been fundamentally fractured since 1962, economic ties were viewed as the much needed balm which would reduce distrust. And today this very sector, for many Indians, should be the focal point of India’s expression of outrage vis-a-vis China.

China’s mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic in its initial stages, resulting in global health crisis and the resultant economic distress had already generated a backlash worldwide against the Chinese Communist Party. Demands for a complete boycott of Chinese products that have risen in India from time to time in the past have only become stronger in recent months. Even before Indian and Chinese militaries started squaring off across the LAC, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was suggesting that the biggest lesson from the Covid-19 pandemic was the need to become self-reliant though New Delhi had been underlining that this call for Atmanirbhar Bharat was in no way a call for protectionism and was certainly not directed towards any other country including China. However, there has been a concerted attempt by India to reduce reliance on Chinese imports as well as investments in recent months. And after the border crisis erupted, it has been quite clear that all gloves are off and India will be considering all possible options on the table, including seriously limiting trade and commercial ties with China.


Also read: Will give a befitting reply if anyone casts an evil eye on India: Ravi Shankar Prasad

In the last few days, Indian railways has terminated a Rs 470 crore contract to a Chinese firm for signaling works in UP that had been given to a Chinese firm and Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL) and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam (MTNL) have been asked by the government not to use Chinese equipment for the upgradation of their 4G facilities. India has also gone ahead and banned 59 Chinese apps, including the popular TikTok, ShareIt and UC Browser, terming them “prejudicial to sovereignty, integrity and national security.”

New Delhi is reportedly making a list of alterative suppliers of critical components which India can’t manufacture and can be used as substitutes for Chinese imports. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) is calling for reducing imports from China to $13 billion by December 2021 from $70 billion in 2018-19. With China’s share in Indian’s total imports being around 11.8% and Indian exports to China barely 3%, India’s trade deficit with China has been a persistent problem. On the investment front, Chinese investment has been growing with around $4 billion investment in Indian start-up sector since 2015.

A knee jerk disruption in trade ties will likely hurt Indian businesses and the Indian poor the most, especially at a time when the economy is beginning to re-adjust to the new normal of Covid-19. Even as India is trying its best to emerge as a global investment destination and global supply chains gets re-jigged, it will be some time before the sheer scale of China can be expected to be matched. New Delhi has been right to focus on developing its own manufacturing capacities but it is not going to happen in the short to medium term. It’s a long term sensible goal for Indian policy-makers to pursue but it won’t change the operational realities in the short term. A blanket ban on Chinese imports will not only derail the nascent recovery post Covid-19 but will also challenge Indian aspirations to emerge as a manufacturer of finished goods. It is precisely because of this that transport and MSME minister, Nitin Gadkari, is urging for a quick release of Chinese imports held up at Indian ports as this would severely impact Indian businesses.

There is also the issue of India as a responsible global player. As a nation that has often argued that playing by the rules of the WTO is essential of global economic stability, any arbitrary trade behaviour on its part will jeopardise its diplomatic campaign to target China as the great disrupter. New Delhi, of course, can’t be prevented from cutting off economic ties with China if and when hostilities between the two escalate but that is likely to be a measure of last resort.


Also read: India can’t afford to be defensive against China like it has been with Pakistan on terror


In the short to medium term, therefore, a complete economic break with China is neither desirable nor necessary. Instead, New Delhi should use the threat of an escalated trade and economic conflict as a lever to continue to keep China on tenterhooks. In a relationship which is devoid of substantive leverage, every possible measure should be exploited with due consideration. Just as military confrontation has a logic of its own when it comes to escalation, an economic confrontation should not be presented as a fait accompli but as another step in a ladder which New Delhi should seem ready to climb.

There is no doubt that India has to reduce its economic dependence on China in the long term, but in the short to medium term a more sectoral walling off from China should be used to signal India’s seriousness of intent. With its recent actions, China has clearly signalled that it doesn’t value its economic ties with India. New Delhi’s response should not be driven by the immediacy of emotion but by the long term need of building its own economic sinews so that it can manage to sit at the core of the post-Covid-19 global economic order.

Professor Harsh V Pant is Director, Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. Views are personal.

The article was first published on the Observer Research Foundation Website.

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