India will soon have a combat aircraft rivalling Lockheed Martin’s F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II of the United States of America, China’s Chengdu J-20 and Russian Sukhoi Su-57. Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Rakesh Kumar Singh Bhadauria on Tuesday announced that the development of 5th Generation advanced multi-role combat aircraft has been launched in a massive boost to the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) programme.

Pitching strongly for an indigenous weapons platforms to arm the Indian Air Force (IAF), ACM Bhadauria’s stress on India going ahead with its own 5th Generation stealth fighter means that IAF would not consider Su-57. He had on October 4, too, during a press conference made it clear that IAF would not go for any foreign-made 5th Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA). Russia is actively looking for buyers for the Su-57 which has entered serial production and 76 fighters will start joining its aerospace force starting end of 2019.

The supersonic AMCA is being developed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). The all-weather multirole AMCA is likely to have twin-engines with stealth features. It will in all probability be single-seater combat aircraft.
Along with the Rafale, Sukhoi Su-30 MKI and Light Combat Aircraft Tejas, the AMCA will be IAF’s backbone in the coming decades. A naval version of the 5th Generation fighter will also be developed for Indian Navy’s aircraft carriers which currently operate the Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29K.

According to IAF’s Air Staff Requirements (ASR) for the AMCA issued in April 2010, the aircraft must have a high degree of stealth, ability to carry weapons internally as well as externally, internal fuel capacity, be able to super cruise and perform the role of both air-to-air to air-to-ground attacks. With the AMCA will primarily engage targets at beyond visual range, it will also have a powerful thrust vectoring engine for supermanoeuvrability for better dogfighting capabilities.

ISLAMABAD: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman was so ups ..

Ajay Banerjee in New Delhi

India is nowadays living under a ‘threat’ of possible terror strikes engineered by terrorists trained and based in Pakistan. Such a strike could result in India retaliating militarily and even spiral out into a short skirmish or war fanned by rhetoric-oriented media on either side.

The lives of almost 12.5 crore people on either side of the divide are at risk in case nuclear warheads get used.

Since August 5, the day India changed the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, there have been reports of Pakistan activating terror camps. Indian agencies have intercepted communication to say some 60 such terrorists are believed to have entered India in the past two months and another 500 odd are in Pakistan.

Terror strikes pose a major threat to not just Army bases but also air bases in North India, which hold war-fighting assets of the IAF like MiG 29 (at Adampur), Apache and Mi35 attack copters (Pathankot), Sukhoi 30 (Sirsa, Bathinda and Halwara) and Jaguar (Ambala). Besides this, long-distance trains, metros, malls and entertainment centres like movie theatres in big cities are at risk, is the warning from security agencies.

Templates for retaliation

New Delhi will retaliate to terror strikes. Two templates have been cast — one was the land-based surgical strikes at five different terror camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir on September 29, 2016, and the second air strikes at Balakot on February 26 this year to destroy a terror camp. In both cases, India was responding to major terror strikes — one on a military camp at Uri and the other on a CRPF convoy at Pulwama.

Former Northern Army Commander Lt Gen DS Hooda (retd) says, “Pakistani deep state will not stop its efforts in attempting to carry out terror attacks in India. Infiltration has been stepped up and the situation at the Line of Control (LoC) is marked by heavy exchange of fire.”

Since the last week of September, the Indian Army has carried out mock drills ‘to flush out terrorists’ from major facilities, including the civil airport of Amritsar. The Indian Air Force fighter jets carried out low-altitude flying on October 1. IAF jets overflying Punjab broke the ‘sound barrier’, resulting in a sonic boom and fears that ‘someone’ was being ‘chased’, hence the high speed. “It was a routine exercise” is what IAF officials said later, explaining that the sonic boom was part of it.

An assessment of the Pentagon says India could be attacked by Pakistan-trained terrorists. The US Assistant Secretary of Defence for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, Randall Shriver, told an audience in Washington on October 2: “Many have concerns that Pakistan keeps a lid on militant groups that might conduct cross-border activities as a result of the Kashmir decisions.”

Changes post Mumbai hold key

The period 2001-2008 looks far away. Terrorists launched audacious attacks in mainland India, including the ones on Parliament (December 2001) and Mumbai (November 2008). Within this period, a series of bomb blasts rocked several Indian cities, all carried out by what was called the ‘Indian Mujahideen’.

Post-Mumbai, radical changes were made in the functioning of the security and Intelligence agencies. This included changes to the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) by giving sweeping powers to agencies, including that of arrest. An approach of joint operations and information sharing through an established channel called the multi-agency centre (MAC) works seamlessly. Things did turn around, random bomb blasts were controlled, but the Kashmir situation continued to fester.

In the past few years, barring the attack on the Pathankot air base in 2016, gun-toting terrorists have been restricted to the Kashmir valley, where terrorists have tried to storm military bases like Uri, Nagrota, Sanjuwan, etc.

Threat of war or nuclear war

An escalation into a war-type scenario will boil down to what choice Pakistan makes and how India responds. Islamabad can either risk its own soldiers and trigger a war for which it may not be prepared, or else it could continue with the low-cost option of waging a proxy war through terrorists and keep the Indian Army on its toes.

But does Pakistan have the military and economic strength to ignite a full-scale war with India? Lt Gen Subrata Saha (retd), a former commander of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps, has a pertinent query: “Can Pakistan justify a war to its own people? Do they have the military strength to fight one and what is the intention of such a war?”

Pakistan will opt for a proxy war for now, says Lt Gen Saha, who is now a member of the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB).

Almost 125 million (12.5 crore) people are at a risk of losing their lives in case India and Pakistan open up their nuclear arsenal. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, in a recent editorial in New York Times, unsheathed the nuclear sabre, saying: “If the world does nothing to stop the Indian assault on Kashmir and its people, there will be consequences for the whole world as two nuclear-armed states get ever closer to a direct military confrontation.”

A study by researchers from the University of Colorado and Rutgers University in the US says a nuclear war between India and Pakistan could, in less than a week, kill 50-125 million people — more than the death toll during all six years of World War II, and lead to a global climate catastrophe. It examined how such a hypothetical future conflict would have consequences that could ripple across the globe.

The study, published in the journal Science Advances, looked at a war scenario that may occur between India and Pakistan in 2025.

India and Pakistan have almost an equal number of nuclear warheads: 140-150. New Delhi holds the edge in having missiles with greater range and the ability to launch a strike from undersea using a submarine.

Lt Gen Hooda adds, “Unless Pakistan tones down its rhetoric and desists from pushing in terrorists, it could lead to a major incident between the two countries.”

So, can China intervene? A US assessment made public by Ronald Shriver in Washington said, “China may not want that kind of a conflict or would support that.”

Across the border, Pakistan army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa chaired the Corps Commanders Conference on October 3. The statement issued thereafter indicated the need to have a back channel open, lest the media on either side dictate terms. The statement said: “Commanders reiterated resolve for a befitting response to any Indian misadventure or aggression being conveyed through irresponsible media statements by Indian military commanders.”

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Plans won’t succeed

“There are some powers who want to carry out a Mumbai-like attack along India’s coastal regions, but their plans will not succeed. Pakistan should now understand that the commissioning of INS Khanderi has increased India’s capability to strike with greater force, if needed.”—Rajnath Singh, Defence Minister

Islamabad needs to tone down rhetoric 

“Pakistan has got no support in its attempts to internationalise the Kashmir issue, at the UN and other platforms. Pakistani deep state (the Inter Services Intelligence and a section within the army) will not stop in its efforts in attempting to carry out terror attacks in India. In the past few months, infiltration across the Line of Control (LoC) has been stepped up by Pakistan and the situation at the LoC has been marked by heavy exchanges of fire. Unless Pakistan tones down its rhetoric and desists from pushing in terrorists, it could lead to a major incident between the two countries.”— Lt Gen DS Hooda (Retd), Former Northern Army Commander

Not normal behaviour

“It (‘jihad’ call) is unbecoming of the office Imran Khan holds. Pakistan is not behaving as a neighbour should. This open call for ‘jihad’ is not normal behaviour. PM holds a high constitutional office. He has given such statements even before. We condemn this.” —Raveesh Kumar, MEA spokesperson

The Pakistan Ministry of Defence Production (MoDP)’s disclosure for the year 2017-2018 revealed that Pakistan’s Directorate General of Munitions Production (DGMP) has given a green signal for the development of a supersonic missile to be used by the Pakistan Navy.

Missiles Manufactured for Pakistan Navy ::

The Ministry of Defence Production and the Directorate General of Munitions Production did not divulge specific details with regards to the range, weight, dimensions and other capabilities of the missile.

Moreover, the authorities did not even specify whether the newly manufactured supersonic missiles would be an anti-ship cruising missile (ASCM) or a land-attack cruise missile (LACM). However, experts believe that it is highly likely that the new missile will be a dual ASCM-LACM.

The Directorate General of Munitions Production has also approved the manufacturing of an “improved version” of the Harbah dual anti-ship cruising and land-attack cruising missile. Pakistan Navy conducted a missile test of the Harbah back in January 2018, from aboard the PNS Himmat, an Azmat-class fast attack craft (FAC).

The improved version of the Harbah is likely to be the dual ASCM-LACM test-fired by the Pakistan Navy back in April 2019, conducted abroad the PNS Himmat Fast attack craft.

Director General Public Relations for the Pakistan Navy, Rear Admiral M. Arshad Javed, revealed that the Pakistan Navy conducted the Operation Exercise RIBAT-2109 to examine the operational preparedness of the naval forces earlier in September.

During the exercise, the Pakistan Navy consolidated Fleet Fire Power by conducting successful live missile firings, held from the surface and air platforms, to affirm the warfighting capabilities of the naval forces.

A press release issued by the DGPR Pakistan Navy stated, “The exercise is aimed at validating various operational concepts and tactical warfighting procedures including joint operations involving all Pakistan Navy’s Field Commands as well as Pakistan Air Force.”

“During the Exercise RIBAT, Pakistan Navy and Pakistan Air Force units are participating in maritime operations in various domains under complex grey hybrid warfare environment. Concurrently, Pakistan Marines and Special Operation Forces (SOFs) are also rehearsing special operations including Coastal Defence, Air Defence and Maritime Interdiction Operations etc.”

Highlighting the state of preparedness of the Pakistan Navy, the press release noted, “The exercise displays Pakistan Navy’s intent to maintain the highest state of readiness and combat potential to ensure seaward defence and protection of maritime interests of Pakistan during peace and war.”

The press release stated that the missile firings were witnessed by Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi, the Chief of the Naval Staff.

It stated in this regard, “Chief of the Naval Staff, Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi witnessed the missiles firings and expressed his utmost satisfaction on the operational readiness of Pakistan Navy. He also reaffirmed the resolve that Pakistan Navy is ready to defend its sea frontiers and would give a befitting response to any misadventure by the adversary.”

Parrying the BrahMos Threat ::

In order to increase its defensive capabilities against a supersonic-cruising anti-ship cruising missile, such as the BrahMos, it is important for Pakistan to work towards procuring or manufacturing analogous capabilities.

After approving the manufacturing of a supersonic missile, it appears that the Pakistan Navy is now working towards securing its own supersonic missile for anti-ship missions. In order to obtain a reliable analogous capability, the missile would require a supersonic-cruising design, which basically indicates a ramjet or scramjet air-breathing engine.

The authorities did not reveal a timeline for the new supersonic missile being manufactured for the Pakistan Navy. So far, there have been no announcements of a joint collaboration or project with another country.

However, a collaboration, such as India’s cooperation with Russia on the BrahMos, would allow Pakistan to reduce costs and timelines, alongside innovating in terms of technology procurement. The potential partners of such a collaboration most likely include China, Ukraine or South Africa.

Indo-Pak Nuclear Capability ::

A recently conducted research by Science Advances revealed that in 2019, the nuclear forces of Pakistan and India are likely to contain 140-150 nuclear warheads each, and these numbers are likely to expand to 200 to 250 warheads by 2025.

Pakistan’s nuclear-capable fighter jets, the Mirage III/V and the F-16 A have a range of 2100km, and they are equipped with eight different types of land-based ballistic missiles, with a range of up to 2750km, and two kinds of cruise missiles with ranges up to 350km. The analysts deduced that Pakistan’s nuclear
missiles can reach India by the longest-range delivery systems.

Navdeep Singh

Defence spending is again in the news, and with it the common censure of the allocation being consumed mostly by pay and pensions. While we may choose to weigh in with emotional calls of soldierly pride and sacrifice et al, dispassionately seen the hazard the pay and pension bill poses is not easy to ignore. But then the solution does not lie in a maladroit approach of demonising concepts such as ‘One Rank One Pension’ (OROP) or disability benefits.

The heavy bill and its ascension with every pay commission is indeed a cause of worry. Though the defence services have been trying to shed some of their manpower, it is unlikely that this modest curtailment would result in significant savings. So what is the solution?

The straight response would be to drastically expand the concept of Short Service Commission (SSC), making it more attractive and less exploitative, and also introduce a Short Service Engagement scheme at jawan level with contributory pension, while concomitantly reducing the permanent staff under the existing defined pension (OROP) system. This arrangement can result in maintenance of military strength at the current levels but greatly reduce the pension bill.

Currently, officers are being offered SSC of 10 to 14 years after which they are compulsorily released without any pension, except those who opt (and are selected) for permanent commission. Previously, officers were allowed to exit after 5 years. Needless to say, the current structure leaves them at a crossroads without pension or guaranteed employment almost in middle age, with peak family commitments.

The way out of the quagmire is simple. Such SSC officers must be made members of a contributory pension scheme under the National Pension System (NPS) as is now applicable to civilian employees. Officers under the Short Service Appointment scheme of Indian Coast Guard are already members of NPS, denying the same to their military counterparts is anyway incongruous. There is also a requirement to protect their status or seniority if they opt for civil government employment after release.

Similarly, there is a need to introduce a Short Service Engagement scheme for recruitment at lower ranks – individuals who will serve for ten years and then be released with NPS benefits and “ex-serviceman status”. Obviously, these Short Service schemes would be voluntary and concurrent to regular entries which shall continue to be on OROP dispensation. However, gradually the number of the former may be amplified and the latter reduced.

The establishment would have to find ingenious, albeit practical and non-exploitative ways, to reduce the bill, and demonising OROP or disability pensions is not one of them. OROP is mandated by the Cabinet and was promised by successive governments to cater to the massively curtailed tenure of defence personnel who start retiring in their 30s. The way out is to reduce future OROP beneficiaries by rationalising permanent staff.

Similarly, the recent furore over disability pensions was unpleasant. Frequent transfers, regimented lifestyle, curtailment of freedoms and inability to cater to domestic commitments result in aggravation of common medical conditions in soldiers, a reality militaries face globally. The attempt should be to introduce policies to reduce stress and strain, provide comfort and succour to soldiers to reduce the prevalence of disability and consequently disability benefits. It would be imprudent to attempt to vilify military disabilities to save pennies rather than making lives of soldiers better.

Lateral induction of soldiers to other organisations such as Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) has also been propagated by successive pay commissions but opposed by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). Perhaps the reason might be valid to an extent. CAPFs would not want military veterans parachuting into their ranks and blocking their career progression. But then there could be a solution by simply raising a separate organisation of military veterans under the MHA and employ them for duties configuring with their past expertise, or utilise them for national reconstruction roles or executing government schemes.

What is required to tame the military pension bill is a balanced but determined and humane political executive, and it seems the current defence minister might just fit that description.

Tribune News Service
Chandigarh, October 3

Punjab Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh on Thursday met Prime Minister Narendra Modi to formally invite him for the opening of the Kartarpur corridor and the main event to mark the 550 years of Guru Nanak at Dera Baba Nanak on November 9.

He also sought clearance for the special delegation to visit Gurdwara Nankana Sahib and bring back Nagar Kirtan to mark the historic occasion.

Ajay Banerjee

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, October 1

Ten days ahead of the planned informal summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, military commanders of both sides met at formal ceremonial border personnel meetings at five different locations across the Himalayas today.

The meetings were part of the “Chinese national day”. Two such meeting points are in eastern Ladakh, two in Arunachal Pradesh and one in Sikkim. Modi, Xi will meet at Mamallapuram, near Chennai, on October 11 and 12.

The tone and tenor of the militaries stationed along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto boundary running all along the Himalayan ridgeline, has been given new “directions” following the Wuhan summit (April 2018).

The militaries have been tasked to maintain peace along the disputed frontiers in the Himalayas. It has been made clear that issues should be resolved at the local level and not allowed to fester.

Today’s meetings were more of cultural exchange rather than the ones to resolve issues. India will host cultural meetings on Republic Day.

Since Wuhan, the two sides have discussed additional measures for peace along the 3,488-km LAC. This includes the need to keep interacting at unit level, commander level and have a standard protocol for meetings and interacting. The meetings along the LAC address multiplicity of issues all along the disputed frontier.

Our Correspondent

Palampur, September 29

The mortal remains of Lt Col Rajneesh Parmar, who died in a chopper crash in Bhutan, were consigned to flames this evening with full state honours at Akshana temple, Nanao, in the presence of a large number of people, who had come from far-flung areas to pay tributes to the officer.

A pall of gloom descended on the village, 15 km from here, this afternoon when the body of 42-year-old martyr was brought to his native village. Rajneesh had lost his life when an Army chopper crashed near Yongphulla in Bhutan on Friday. Parmar was posted in the Northeast to train the officers of Bhutanese army.

Earlier in the morning, his body was airlifted to the Army helipad at Holta Cantonment, 3 km from here, in an Army helicopter where it was received by senior Army and civil officers.

During a brief halt at Holta Cantonment, Major General AK Samantra of the DAH Division of the 9th Core laid wreath on the body on behalf of the Army and paid condolences to his family. Later, his body was taken to his house at Maranda.

His body was received by local residents, family members, relatives and officials of the district and police administration.

Vipin Singh Parmar, state Health Minister, laid a wreath on behalf of Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur. Earlier, he called on the family of the martyr at his residence.

Our Correspondent

Jammu, September 27

The North Tech Symposium-2019, an annual event organised under the aegis of the Northern Command Headquarters, was inaugurated by Lt Gen Ranbir Singh, GOC-in-C, Northern Command, on Friday.

The event based on the theme, “Empowering northern theatre with contemporary technologies to meet dynamic operational challenges” had active participation from nearly 100 defence companies, including MSMEs, DPSU and Simulator Development Division.

The symposium served to showcase cutting-edge technologies and innovative products providing solutions to complex challenges faced by the security forces in the Northern Command and also acted as an ideal platform for mutual exchange of ideas between the defence industry and the Army.

The technologies and products on display covered a wide canvas, prominent being surveillance and situational awareness, tactical mobility, firepower, soldier, force protection, communications, combat medical, robotics, simulators, training aids and many others.

The symposium achieved great success in building an Army and industry relationship with the common objective of developing customised and effective solutions for the Army and progress towards self-reliance in the defence industry to align with the government initiative of Make in India.