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Services in dilemma over fiscal prudence

The proposals by the Department of Military Affairs to counter the government’s dire economic predicament by increasing the retirement age of military officers and scaling down their pensions have raised a veritable storm among service veterans. Smarting from the move by the CDS to reduce officers’ messes and CSD outlets at all military stations, these retirees are venting their anger on social media, claiming that the moves are ill-advised, impracticable and unviable.

Services in dilemma over fiscal prudence

TOUGH CALL: The appointment of General Rawat as the Chief of Defence Staff had given rise to hopes which seem to have been belied with the DMA plans.

Amit Cowshish & Rahul Bedi

Amit Cowshish Ex-Financial Adviser, Acquisition, MoD & Rahul Bedi Senior Journalist

THE recent proposals by the Department of Military Affairs (DMA) headed by General Bipin Rawat, India’s newly appointed Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), to manage the fiscal challenge posed by the 12-fold increase in defence pensions over the past two decades, have generated a heated debate among service personnel.

From the 2001-02 fiscal, when defence pensions were Rs 12,000 crore, constituting 16.91 per cent of the overall defence budget, they had risen to a whopping Rs 1,33,825 crore in the financial year 2020-21. This equals 28.39 per cent of the total annual defence outlay, posing serious concerns for the federal government struggling to shore up its finances.

Consequently, the DMA’s proposals to counter the government’s dire economic predicament by increasing the retirement age of military officers and concomitantly scaling down their pensions, have raised a veritable storm among service veterans. Smarting from the move by the CDS to reduce officers’ messes and canteen stores department (CSD) outlets at all military stations, these retirees are venting their anger on social media, claiming that these latest moves are ill-advised, impracticable and unviable.

Official sources said the DMA has proposed that the retirement age of one, two and three-star service officers be increased by one to three years. Consequently, Colonel, Brigadier and Major General-level officers and their counterparts in the Navy and Air Force, would under the new scheme, retire at the age of 57, 58 and 59 years, respectively. Military personnel in logistics, medical, technical and other branches, however, will continue to superannuate at the age of 57, but presently, it is not known whether similar measures will apply to Personnel Below Officer Rank (PBOR) who constitute the bulk of all service personnel.

According to the DMA proposal, only service personnel retiring after completing 35 years or more of service, would be eligible for full pension, which presently equals 50 per cent of the last drawn emoluments. But officers retiring with 31-35 years of service will get 37.5 per cent of their last pay, an amount that will drop to 30 per cent for those retiring after 26-30 years. Officers leaving after 20-25 years of employment will only receive a mere 25 per cent as pension.

The DMA is believed to have asked the services to ‘process’ the draft Government Sanction Letter (GSL) by November 10 for perusal by its secretary, General Rawat, appointed CDS on January 1, for a three-year tenure. Seemingly, the DMA appears not to have evaluated what impact these proposals would have on the morale of the armed forces. Many retired and serving officers concur that increasing the retirement age would not only block advancement in a pyramidical promotional structure, but the corresponding reduction in pension, if approved, might also not lead to any major savings.

The proposed changes would also, without doubt, face protracted legal challenges as these are contrary to the accepted principle of one-rank-one-pension (OROP) and numerous legal rulings which emphasise that pensions are not a ‘bounty’ or ‘gratuitous payment’ subject to any governments will or pleasure, but a legally enforceable right.

In 1980, the Supreme Court too had ruled that dividing a homogeneous class of pensioners based on indiscernible rational principles amounted to ‘arbitrariness’ and violated Article 14 of the Indian Constitution that guarantees equal protection to all under the rule of law. The proposed system of graded pensions for the armed forces would also fall foul of this fundamental principle, creating in turn, a legally untenable distinction between military and civilian pensioners, further complicating an already vexatious and emotive situation.

Moreover, the extant formula pegging pensions at 50% of the last pay drawn was adopted by the government years ago, following recommendations by the Sixth Central Pay Commission and cannot be changed merely by a DMA order, and would necessitate prior Cabinet approval.

However, at a juncture when the Indian military is locked in a stand-off with China’s People’s Liberation Army in eastern Ladakh, the Cabinet will need to think twice before sanctioning such a move which, apart from being of doubtful utility, also remains politically sensitive.

The categorised pension scheme will also be unfair to officers wanting to quit service due to blocked promotion prospects to seek alternative careers on Civvy Street. Many such personnel would be colonel-level officers who, on retirement would receive a paltry 25 per cent of their last drawn pay. If, on the other hand, these officers decide to continue in service till becoming eligible for a higher pension, they will, doubtlessly have little or no motivation to give their best, and end up as disgruntled deadwood inside the system

Extended service tenures will also skewer the youthful age profile of the armed forces, reducing which is one of the military’s stated goals for greater operational efficiency. This is particularly so for the Army that is on near-permanent deployment on counter-insurgency operations in Kashmir and elsewhere, necessitating a younger officer profile.

For a change, however, the civilian bureaucracy in the Ministry of Defence (MoD) — pilloried for decades by the military for arbitrariness and insensitivity— cannot be blamed for the apparently flawed pension and age enhancement schemes, as both have sole-DMA ownership. The DMA was instituted in December 2019 following decades of lobbying by the military and the strategic community which had collectively asserted that no meaningful defence reforms were possible without a CDS.

They reasoned that only a CDS could initiate synergy among the armed forces, optimise scarce financial and human resources, and provide single-point military advice to the government. But now that their wish has materialised with General Rawat’s appointment, their hopes appear belied as multiple DMA measures have been adversely received by them.

In the end, nothing hurts the military more than being disappointed by the institution it had fiercely demanded and thought would be indispensable in diluting oppressive ‘civilian control’ over the armed forces.


Timely shot in the arm for India-Nepal ties

Timely shot in the arm for India-Nepal ties

BILATERAL BOOST: Army Chief General Naravane’s visit to Nepal has shown that both countries are interested in finding a way to resume regular exchanges.

Manjeev Puri

Former Ambassador to Nepal

ARMY Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane’s recent visit to Nepal was the first formal high-level tour from India to the neighbouring country in nearly a year. While the Covid-19 pandemic played a role in this prolonged ‘social distancing’, political actions by Nepal in the foregone months had contributed to the ‘chill’.

India-Nepal ties are characterised by a roti-beti relationship and institutional bonds, including an open border. Of special value are the linkages between the Indian Army and the Nepal Army, which is a key national institution in Nepal. The visit of the Army Chief was part of the long-standing and customary friendship between the Indian and Nepal armies and allowed for renewing these strong bonds.

India-Nepal Army ties are epitomised by a unique tradition of conferment of the honorary rank of General to each other’s Chiefs. All Indian Army Chiefs have been so honoured except General JJ Singh, whose tenure coincided with turbulent times in Nepal and the abolition of monarchy. General Naravane received his insignias from the President of Nepal during the visit. He also called on Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who is also the country’s Defence Minister. Furthermore, he addressed the Nepal Army Command and Staff College and did the ceremonial honours by laying a wreath at Bir Smarak.

Cooperation between the two armies encompasses nearly all facets of military activity. Indian equipment is widely in use in the Nepal Army with further assistance being provided in its modernisation efforts. Indian training facilities are regularly made available to the Nepalis along with holding of joint military exercises, assistance in times of disasters, participating in adventure activities and hosting bilateral visits. Officers from the Nepal Army attend training courses in Indian Army institutions. including the prestigious NDC course which was also attended some years back by the present Chief of the Nepal Army, General Purna Chandra Thapa. The Indo-Nepal battalion-level joint military exercise Surya Kiran is conducted alternately in India and Nepal. The 14th Surya Kiran exercise was held in December 2019 in Nepal.

During his visit, General Naravane gifted medical equipment for two field hospitals of the Nepali Army. The equipment included X-ray machines, computed radiography systems, ICU ventilators, video endoscopy units, anaesthesia machines, laboratory equipment and ambulances. He also gifted additional ventilators to the Nepal Army as Covid-related assistance. Earlier in July, the Indian Army had provided ventilators to the Nepal Army. Since the pandemic started, the Government of India has provided about 25 tonnes of essential medicines, medical supplies and equipment.

Another unique feature of the India-Nepal defence cooperation are the Gorkha regiments of the Indian Army that are raised also by recruitment from Nepal. Currently, about 32,000 Gorkha soldiers from Nepal are serving in the Indian Army. Moreover, an estimated 2 lakh veterans of the Indian Army are settled in Nepal and receive their pensions from the Indian embassy in Kathmandu and its two pension paying offices in Pokhara and Dharan. There are also 22 District Soldier Boards in Nepal which cater to the welfare needs of ex-Gorkha soldiers and their families. Interestingly, Nepalis serve as officers in the Indian Army going through the same recruitment process as is the case for Indian citizens. A most interesting case in recent years is that of a Nepali family where one brother rose to the rank of Lieutenant General in the Nepal Army while another served as Major General in the Indian Army.

The civilisational closeness between India and Nepal has many positives but also comes with its own challenges. A critical one is identity politics in Nepal with anti-India positioning being resorted to by political leaders of all persuasions. Playing of the China card vis-a-vis India has also been part of the Nepali political playbook. In recent years, with a large proportion of its population overseas (and not just in India), Nepal has benefitted from huge remittance inflows and experienced globalisation giving rise to a feeling of expanded options, especially beyond India, by far the biggest economic and societal partner of Nepal.

In 2018, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and the Nepal Communist Party came to power riding the crest of shrill nationalism with a clear anti-India undertone. However, as 2020 unfolded and the world grappled with Covid, factional coalition dharmas within the party started coming apart and whipping up anti-India sentiment, as usual, became the stratagem of choice for the Prime Minister to hold on to his position.This manifested itself in the release of a new map of Nepal that egregiously included Indian territories in Uttarakhand. Adding fuel to the fire were verbal articulations in Nepal at the highest-level targeting India.

All in all, Nepalese actions could only be interpreted as pokes in the eye for India. They were also alienating their best friends, the people of India. At the government level, there was little option but to allow some ‘cooling’. However, in the past few months, since August 15, when the Nepali PM called Prime Minister Modi and offered good wishes on India’s Independence Day and followed it up with a Dasehra greeting, with a card showing a map of Nepal without the recently claimed territories, the augury appears positive.

Nepal’s gesture to invite the Indian Army Chief and India’s decision to accept the invitation indicate mutual interest in finding a way to resume regular exchanges. In the extant circumstances, the visit of the Army Chief was bound to and did receive an unusual level of media attention in both countries (as did an informal visit by the R&AW Chief last month). It is good that the visit has been widely welcomed in Nepal. Hopefully, it will pave the way for more frequent higher-level engagements between India and Nepal soon. India-Nepal ties are such that there should be no distancing between the two countries


Army officer found dead under mysterious circumstances at Rashtriya Rifles camp in J-K’s Rajouri A court of inquiry has been ordered in the case

Army officer found dead under mysterious circumstances at Rashtriya Rifles camp in J-K's Rajouri

Jammu, November 9

An Army officer of Major rank was found dead under mysterious circumstances at the Rashtriya Rifles camp in Jammu and Kashmir’s Rajouri district on Monday morning, police said.

The body was found at the camp in the Thanamandi belt of the district and brought to the knowledge of the police, they said.

Senior Army and police officers rushed to the spot, and an investigation had been started, the police said.

A court of inquiry has been ordered in the case. PTI


Pakistan shells three sectors in Poonch

Pakistan shells three sectors in Poonch

Jammu, November 11

The Pakistan army heavily shelled forward posts and hamlets on Wednesday in three sectors along the LoC in Poonch districts, officials said. The Army effectively retaliated. “At about 9.15 am, the Pakistan army initiated unprovoked ceasefire violation by firing with small arms & shelling with mortars along LoC in Kirni, Shahpur and Qasba sectors in district Poonch”, a defence spokesman said. The Pakistan Army has violated the ceasefire 13 times this month. — PTI


Major cremated with honours

ribune News Service

Jhajjar, November 11

Major Vineet Gulia (29), who died in Rajouri of Jammu and Kashmir on Monday, was cremated with full military honours at his native Dariyapur village under Badli subdivision on Wednesday.

A large number of people from nearby villages attended the funeral and paid tributes to Major Gulia. Badli MLA Kuldeep Vats and BJP district president Vikram Kadian were prominent among those present on the occasion.

 


articipants get ready for the Invitational Golf Tournament, a precursor to the 3rd Military Literature Festival, in Chandigarh.— Tribune Photo Vijay Mohan Tribune News Service Chandigarh, November 11 The fourth edition of Military Literature Festival (MLF) will be held virtually this year due to the restrictions placed amid the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic. The festival is scheduled for December 18, 19 and 20. Most of the events, including the inaugural session and panel discussions, will be conducted online. Few public events, which were held in the previous years, are being done away with this time. However, a War Memorial function is scheduled for December 7. The current stand-off in Ladakh, and the violent clash between the two armies at Galwan Vally, along with the threat from China, is expected to be the major topic of discussion among the geo-strategic issues. A wide array of contemporary, historic, literary, and technical issues related to national security, and the armed forces will feature in the MLF, with experts in the domain, as well as, serving, and retired defence officers propounding their views. With the 50th anniversary of the 1971 Indo-Pak war falling next year, it is also expected to be one of the hot topics of discussion. Higher defence management, military industry unconventional and sub-conventional warfare, foreign relations, military diplomacy and the strategic fallout of events like the impact the ongoing pandemic are other topics of interest. “Live streaming, as well as, recording of events like the panel discussions, weapon display, book launches, war memorial service, films, virtual exhibitions, and other interactive sessions would be done over social media, and other cyber platforms”, said Brig JS Arora (Retd.). A professional agency has been engaged for the conduct of this three-day event. MLF is an annual affair. It is conducted by the Punjab Government, and the Western Command to honour, and commemorate the legendary, brave, and sacrifices of the Indian soldiers. It is also to bring a common platform for experts to deliberate on the contemporary military, security, and geopolitical issues.

Air Vice Marshal wins battle for higher salary, avers juniors draw more pay

Photo for representation. — iStock

Vijay Mohan

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, November 10

Nearly a year after retirement, an Air Vice Marshal has won a legal battle for higher salary after he had contended that officers junior to him and those posted under his command, were drawing higher pay.

The Armed Forces Tribunal has ordered the government to step up his pay retrospectively with effect from July 2017 to bring it on par with his immediate juniors and thereafter grant him all arrears and consequential benefits along with re-fixing his pension accordingly.

Air Vice Marshal P Subhash Babu, who was commissioned into the Accounts Branch of the IAF in June 1985 and retired after rendering 34 years of service, had averred that his pay as on July 1, 2017 was Rs 2,18,200, including the Military Service Pay (MSP) component, whereas two of his junior officers at the rank of Air Commodore who were commissioned much after him were drawing Rs 2,26,800 and Rs 2,20,600, respectively.

When he was promoted as Air Vice Marshal in July 1016, there was no separate MSP for Air Vice Marshal and equivalents and MSP was subsumed into the basic pay for officers at this rank and above. MSP was granted to defence personnel as a separate element of pay up to the rank of Air Commodore and equivalent.

He also pointed out that the Ministry of Defence, while processing a statutory complaint filed by him in this regard, returned it saying that the matter was being examined by the ministry, but till date, no decision has been taken.

“Merely because the Union of India has taken no decision in the matter to remove the anomaly, we cannot lose sight of the fact that the principle of stepping-up of pay is a well settled principle in service jurisprudence,” the tribunal’s bench comprising Justice Rajendra Menon and Lt Gen PM Hariz said in its order of November 4.

“It has been enforced only for the purpose of removing anomaly in the pay scale and pension between a junior and senior officer and if the anomaly has arisen on account of revision of pay-scales, the same should be removed by stepping-up of pay of the senior officers, as has been done in the case of SN Chaturvedi by the Delhi High Court,” the bench said.

Suresh Babu had relied upon Chaturvedi’s case of 1990, who was also then an Air Vice Marshal and had faced a similar situation following the implementation of the Fourth Pay Commission.

The Tribunal also observed that circulars have been issued by the defence ministry in the matter of stepping-up of pay of Major Generals and equivalents, and it is indicated that the question of extending the benefit by Delhi High Court has been examined by the Government of India and similarly placed Major Generals and equivalent officers would be granted stepping up of pay if officers lower in rank like Brigadiers are drawing more pay.

“In rejecting the statutory complaint without considering all these aspects, the    respondents have committed grave irregularities and illegalities, and accordingly, the impugned order being unsustainable, is quashed,” the bench further ruled.


CBI probe likely into 8 MoD contracts in Kargil 13 military men under scanner

CBI probe likely into 8 MoD contracts in Kargil

CBI probe against 13 persons, including Military Engineering Service (MES) and the Army personnel

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, November 11

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is all set to recommend a CBI probe against 13 persons, including Military Engineering Service (MES) and the Army personnel, for bungling in eight building contracts related to troop welfare projects in Kargil.

Contractor overpaid

  • Eight contracts for separate works were allotted to a firm in 2012
  • A probe by the vigilance cell of the Defence Ministry was launched in 2016 after a series of questions were raised in the matter
  • It has been found that the contractor was overpaid for the work

Eight contracts for separate works were allotted to a firm in 2012. A probe by the vigilance cell of the MoD — dealing with the MES and the Border Roads Organisation (BRO) — was launched in 2016 after questions were raised in the matter. In October 2018, the progress in a series of cases was reviewed and the probe was intensified. It has now been found that the contractor was overpaid for the work he carried out. The quality of the work and material was of “very poor quality”. There are glaring gaps in accounting of stores and accounts books.

Sources said the civil works related to troop welfare and habitat were of strategic nature. These were in poor condition and the officers at the brigade at Kargil expressed their concern over poor construction.

Over 100 such cases of alleged corruption are being processed.


India, China consider 3-step proposal to ease LAC standoff

India, China consider 3-step proposal to ease LAC standoff

o ease tension in eastern Ladakh, a three-step disengagement plan has been suggested.

Ajay Banerjee

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, November 11

To ease tension in eastern Ladakh, a three-step disengagement plan has been suggested. India is considering a proposal by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) asking the Indian Army and its troops to pull back from critical spots along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

If an agreement is reached, India will vacate the 13 spots it occupies along the southern bank of Pangong Tso. In response, the PLA will pull back from the spots on the northern bank of the same lake. However, the contentious 900 sq km Depsang plains in northern Ladakh, where both sides have claims and counter-claims, is not part of the proposal or the suggested pullback.

“It is a proposal, and not an agreement to disengage, let it be fine-tuned and matters to mature,” said a senior Indian Army officer.

The China Study Group (CSG), led by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, will consider the proposal but is likely to seek iron cast guarantees that the perception of the LAC — an un-demarcated boundary — will be respected.

Also, that the PLA troops will not reoccupy the heights India vacates south of Pangong Tso or those on the north bank or the points of disagreement at Galwan, or patrolling points 15 and 17.

The CSG will be discussing that the issue of entire 826-km LAC in Ladakh should be part of the same disengagement and de-escalation process and must include the Depsang plains.

It is here that the Chinese troops can threaten India’s access to the 255-km Darbuk-Shyok-DBO (DSDBO) road, which leads to Karakoram Pass and has an airfield next to it at an altitude of 16,800 feet.

India will convey its decision at the ninth meeting of the senior military commanders anytime next week.

More than 50,000 troops of each side face each other, accompanied by tanks, artillery guns, fighter jets and missiles, in the worst-ever border crisis since 1967 when both sides had exchanged fire.

Apart from the fatal Galwan clash in June this year, there have been hand-to-hand combat and firing in the first week of September. The night temperature in the area is minus 30 degrees Celsius.

How Delhi, Beijing plan to Disengage

Phase 1: Simultaneous withdrawal of tanks from forward locations along the LAC

Phase 2: Simultaneous withdrawal of troops — Indian troops will return to the Dhan Singh Thapa post located on Finger 3 (see map), north of the Pangong Tso

  • PLA troops will withdraw to Finger 8; the mountain spurs which descend into the Pangong Tso are identified as ‘fingers’

Phase 3 The Indian Army will withdraw from all 13 critical heights and territories, including Rezang La and Renchin La, along the southern bank of Pangong Lake which give India an edge over the Chinese troops

  • These were occupied in August and allow India to dominate Spanggur Gap under the PLA and also its Moldo garrison

Navy demonstrates combat readiness with video of missile destroying ship in Arabian Sea

INS Vikramaditya | @DefenceDecode | Twitter

New Delhi: In a demonstration of its combat readiness in strategic sea lanes around India, the Indian Navy on Friday released a video of an anti-ship missile destroying a sinking ship with “deadly accuracy” somewhere in the Arabian Sea.

The missile was fired by frontline corvette INS Prabal as part of a mega naval drill involving aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya and a number of warships, attack helicopters, aircraft and other assets of the Navy.

An Indian Navy Spokesperson tweeted that the missile homed in on its target, an old ship, hitting with deadly accuracy at its maximum range.

“#AShM launched by #IndianNavy Missile Corvette #INSPrabal, homes on with deadly accuracy at max range, sinking target ship,” he said.

Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Karambir Singh on Thursday reviewed the operational preparedness of his force at various shore-based locations a well as at sea.

He also addressed a select group of combatants of the Navy’s Carrier Battle Group over a broadcast from the INS Vikramaditya, India’s only aircraft carrier, and reviewed the force’s overall combat readiness, officials said.

In his remarks, Admiral Singh complimented his force for continuously maintaining “peak combat-readiness” and “high tempo” of operations over the past few months, they said.

The Indian Navy has significantly increased its deployment in the Indian Ocean Region, in an attempt to send across a message to China in the wake of escalation in tension between the two countries.

Giving an overview of the prevailing security situation, the Chief of Naval Staff stated that the Navy would continue to maintain a high-tempo of operations in coming months.

“He also complimented the Carrier Battle Group and its combatants for accurate and effective weapon firings, which left no doubt about the Navy’s readiness to meet any emergent contingencies,” the Navy said in a statement on Thursday.

A carrier battle group is a mega naval fleet comprising an aircraft carrier, accompanied by a large number destroyers, frigates and other ships.

“Indian Navy continues to maintain a high tempo of operations and combat-readiness despite the COVID-19 pandemic by adhering to stringent protocols onboard warships, submarines and aircraft squadrons and bases, and is fully prepared to tackle challenges in the maritime domain,” the Navy said.


Also read: Will continue maintaining high-tempo of operations, says Navy chief amid tensions with China

 


In Pakistan, a new battle takes shape | Analysis The Opposition has challenged Imran Khan and the army. Khan is weak; the army is not

The army will close ranks to protect its role in the polity. The India factor will be used to remind the people that it is needed to protect them, especially at this time

The army will close ranks to protect its role in the polity. The India factor will be used to remind the people that it is needed to protect them, especially at this time(AP)

The Pakistan army and the country’s principal opposition parties are on a collision course. Despite the army’s warning not to drag it into politics, these parties have publicly complained about its political role. The Pakistani political class has traditionally accepted the army’s political role as a given and politicians have wanted to secure its support to promote their individual interests. Now, these Opposition parties are asking the generals not to interfere in the country’s politics.

The real target of the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM), which is scheduled to hold its first rally on October 16, is not Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan, though his resignation and fresh elections have been sought, but the men in khaki. This also seems to borne out by former PM and the Pakistan Muslim League(N), PML(N), leader Nawaz Sharif’s blistering attack on the army in his address to a multi-party meeting called by the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) on September 20.

Sharif said that Pakistan was controlled by a “state above the state” which did not let any elected Pakistani PM function properly or complete his term. He criticised the manipulation of the 2018 national assembly election to foist a “selected” PM — Khan — on the country. The meeting, which decided to launch the PDM, also expressed great concern at the “establishment” (a euphemism for the army) increasing its “role” in the country’s domestic affairs and, by doing so, threatening the country’s stability and institutions. PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari also called for a “non-political establishment”.

The Pakistan army is a professional fighting force and, at the same time, despite its denials, a political institution. It is the final decision-maker of the country’s security and foreign policies but has always, also, reserved the right to intervene in any other area of governance during civilian rule in the country.

Both the army and Khan are taking PDM seriously. This is borne out by Khan alleging that opposition leaders have joined hands to save themselves from corruption charges. He has quickened the pace of investigations against PML(N) and PPP leaders. Nawaz Sharif’s brother, Shahbaz Sharif, the former chief minister of Punjab, has been jailed and former president Asif Ali Zardari has been charged for corruption.

More significantly, Khan, while mounting a stout defence of the army and maintaining that the Inter-Services Intelligence is the finest service in the world, has fired the brahmastra against Nawaz Sharif; he has accused the former PM of playing India’s game in maligning the army. There is no more potent charge that can be levelled in Pakistan than colluding with the permanent enemy, India. Nawaz Sharif is in London since last November. He was then in jail but was allowed to go abroad for his medical condition was said to be critical.

On its part, the army is letting Khan take the lead in battling PDM but is expectedly refuting charges of interference in governance. While addressing the cadets of the Pakistan Military Academy on October 10, army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa said: “I count it a great honour that we stand before the nation as a trusted and accountable institution”. He also emphasised “Our actions are guided by constitution and the national interest of Pakistan”.

This is not the first time in Pakistan’s history that sections of its political class are seeking to take on the army. What is different now is that they are openly calling for it to be an apolitical force, as is traditional in true democracies. This goes against the grain of the army’s entrenched belief that it is the only institution that can uphold the country’s national interest, that all others are ineffective, and the political class is venal and corrupt. This thinking is reinforced by its view that India is a perpetual enemy. The army has ensured that this view of India becomes deeply entrenched among the Pakistani people. Now, even the few Pakistanis who stood for the normalisation of India-Pakistan ties have turned against India because they feel that this country has changed course after the 2019 elections.

Will the PDM succeed in consolidating the substantial disillusionment against the Khan government as well as creating a sentiment for the army to confine itself only to its professional duties?

The government has failed on different fronts since it assumed office. The economy continues to be in a mess and the macroeconomic targets set by IMF remain unmet. Consequently, the Fund is demanding an end to tax loopholes, increase in electricity rates and greater autonomy for regulators. These are politically almost impossible to accomplish. Pakistan’s foreign policy is under strain too. Its Kashmir policy has not yielded results and the strains with the Arab peninsular states, especially Saudi Arabia, are enormous; Turkey cannot replace the Saudi connection. There is thus material to fan discontent against the Khan government.

The same will be difficult to do against the army, despite its support for Khan. Even if there is some discontent because of Bajwa’s extension, the army will close ranks to protect its role in the polity.

The India factor will be used to remind the people that it is needed to protect them, especially at this time. The army’s capacity to break Opposition unity should also never be underestimated.

The October 16 rally may, therefore, give an indication of both the capability of the opposition and the army’s strategy.

Vivek Katju is a former diplomat
The views expressed are personal