The technical specifications for the system have been framed by ISRO

Vijay Mohan

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, June 26

The Indian Air Force, in collaboration with the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), is developing a real time aircraft tracking system (RTATS) that will be retrofitted in its transport fleet.

The technical specifications for the system have been framed by ISRO and the development and fabrication of the prototypes would be done by the industry, according to IAF sources. The trials and evaluation would be done by the IAF on AN-32 aircraft at one of its bases.

The RTATS is required to be compatible with the Global Navigation Satellite System of India’s GAGAN regional satellite navigation system and Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC), as well as America’s Global Positioning System, using both standard positioning services as well as restricted services.

GAGAN was conceived by the Ministry of Civil Aviation for management and surveillance of the Indian airspace, while NavIC has a wider footprint, covering south Asia, south-east Asia, China, the Middle East, south-western Europe and the Indian Ocean region, including the eastern coast of Africa and Western Australia. Both these systems have been developed by ISRO.  

Many military as well as civilian organisations across the globe use various kinds of RTATS for tracking aircraft movements as well as managing airspace. Contemporary tracking systems use a network of satellites and ground receiving stations. Flight data transmitted from an aircraft is captured by an overhead satellite and beamed to the earth, where it is recorded and disseminated to the stakeholders. It can also be used to transmit distress signals in an emergency.

The IAF is also equipping some of its larger transport aircraft with the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), a new generation, highly accurate satellite-based aircraft positioning and tracking system, the use of which has already become mandatory in some countries.

Real-time tracking using ADS-B and other open source information is also available to aviation enthusiasts and the general public though many websites and mobile applications. These give out an aircraft’s flight path, location, speed and altitude. Though primarily focused on civilian aircraft, some military aircraft also show up on these applications.

The IAF had earlier installed emergency beacons in some of its transport planes, but these are activated only in case of an accident to transmit the location of the site and do not beam flight data.

Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias signs an agreement as his Indian counterpart S Jaishankar looks on, in Athens on Saturday. AP/PTI

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, June 26

India and Greece demonstrated a commonality of positions on a number of issues, including terrorism and freedom of navigation, during External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s interaction with his counterpart Nikos Dendias in Athens. The similarity of views on a number of issues led the two sides to agree to work together to establish a strategic partnership.

Jaishankar is visiting Greece on his way to Italy to attend the G-20 meeting of Foreign Ministers.

In particular, the two countries recognised the threat posed by extremists, including cross-border terrorism. They also concurred on the vision for a free, open, inclusive and cooperative Indo-Pacific, which will ensure connectivity and development for all in the region. The two sides also reiterated the urgent need for reform of the UN, including the enlargement of the Security Council, as well as other multilateral institutions, to make them more inclusive and effective.

Jaishankar also called on Greece Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. He also unveiled a statue of Mahatma Gandhi that will “serve as a powerful symbol of friendship between the two countries,’’ said a joint statement.

On the contentious issue of migration, the two sides emphasised the importance of moving people in a smooth and lawful manner and agreed to work for an agreement on migration and mobility.

It was also agreed that the next round of consultations between the Foreign Ministries and the Joint Trade Committee will take place soon.

The Greek Foreign Minister signed and handed over the framework agreement for the International Solar Alliance.

1. 150 DIED WITHOUT VACCINE’: RETIRED GORKHA SOLDIERS FROM NEPAL WRITE TO GEN NARAVANE FOR DOSES

2.INDIA SUCCESSFULLY TEST-FIRES ADVANCED VERSION OF PINAKA, 122 MM CALIBRE ROCKETS

3. WANT KARWAR NAVAL BASE TO BE ASIA’S BIGGEST, WILL TRY & RAISE BUDGET IF NECESSARY, SAYS RAJNATH

4. RAJNATH TO VISIT COCHIN SHIPYARD ON FRIDAY TO CHECK PROGRESS OF INDIGENOUS AIRCRAFT CARRIER

5. SPECTRE OF ‘COLOUR REVOLUTION’ WORRIES PLA

6. PAKISTAN IN TROUBLED WATERS

7. DEFENCE INNOVATION NEEDS TOP-DOWN REFORMS

8. ARMY CHIEF VISITS SHIMLA-BASED ARTRAC, BRIEFED ON TRAINING INITIATIVES

9. IAF CHIEF BHADAURIA DIRECTS WAC COMMANDERS TO KEEP OPERATIONAL READINESS AT HIGHEST LEVEL

10.KISAN MORCHA GEARS UP FOR PROTEST TODAY

11. INDIA-US JOINT DRILL SEES HIGH-TEMPO NAVAL OPERATIONS

12. DRDO TEST-FIRES 122 MM ENHANCED CALIBRE ROCKETS

13.PAKISTAN REMAINS ON FATF GREY LIST

14.NAVY’S GALWAN DEPLOYMENT SHOWED OUR INTENT: RAJNATH

16.SEVEN AMRITSAR HOSPITALS OFF ECHS LIST FOR FAKING BILLS

17. EASTERN LADAKH ROW: INDIA, CHINA LIKELY TO HOLD ANOTHER ROUND OF DIPLOMATIC TALKS THIS WEEK

Letter said the 150 retired Gorkha soldiers who died of Covid in Nepal were yet to receive a single dose of vaccine. They have asked for 3 lakh shots from India.

Representative Image | File Photo of the Gorkha Regiment marching contingent passing through Rajpath on Republic Day | WikipediaText Size: A- A+

New Delhi: Gorkha soldiers from Nepal, formerly serving in the Indian Army, have requested India’s Chief of Army Staff General M.M. Naravane to provide them and their dependents with Covid-19 vaccines. The request came even as Nepal reels under the effects of the pandemic that include not just infections and deaths but also financial distress for many.

In a letter written earlier this month to Naravane and the Ex-Servicemen Contributory Health Scheme (ECHS) central organisation, the retired Nepal-domiciled Gorkha soldiers (those who are permanent residents of Nepal) said more than 150 of them have died of Covid without receiving any vaccines.

The letter, of which ThePrint has a copy, further said the pandemic has massively affected the people of Nepal and might claim more lives.

The retired soldiers also said the Nepal government was not in a position to prioritise or provide vaccines to them and their dependents, as it itself was dependent on other countries for the vaccines.

“The ex-servicemen (ESM) have served (the Indian Army) with their full loyalty, but now they are dying,” the letter said, adding that neither the Government of India nor the Nepal Government was giving them priority and providing them anti-Covid vaccines.

The letter pointed out that while the ECHS was providing vaccines to ESM and their dependents through ECHS polyclinics in India, retired Gorkha soldiers of Nepal, were yet to get even the first vaccine dose.

The former soldiers questioned whether it was not “most unfair” to the “world famous Gorkha soldiers”.

The retired soldiers, who wrote the letter under the banner of the Nepal Ex-servicemen Association, said it was the responsibility of the ECHS to provide vaccines and medical help to the ESM and their dependents.

They sought General Naravane’s intervention in requesting the ECHS to provide them and their dependents with vaccines on humanitarian grounds.

“Approximately, three lakh vaccines should be enough to take care of the present situation,” the letter stated. It added that the move will save thousands of ex-servicemen “who have given their youth for India”.

Also read: Raising theatre commands can’t be left to the military. It’s a govt’s job all over the world

‘Foundation of India-Nepal friendship’

Nepalese ex-servicemen who have served in the Indian Army draw pension from the Government of India.

The Indian Army recruits about 1,300 Gorkha youths every year and 30,000 to 35,000 Nepal-domiciled Gorkha soldiers serve in the seven Gorkha Rifles regiments of the Indian Army.

In November last year, Gen. Naravane was conferred the honorary rank of General of the Nepali Army by President Bidya Devi Bhandari.

Former Indian President Pranab Mukherjee had said Gorkha soldiers and ex-servicemen were the ‘foundational pillars’ of the India-Nepal friendship.

Earlier, this month, the Army conducted a vaccination drive for ‘Veer Naris’ or soldiers’ wives killed in the line of duty, ex-servicemen and their dependents in Jammu and Kashmir.

In March this year, the Indian Army reportedly gifted 1 lakh doses of anti-Covid vaccines to the Nepal Army.

Nepal started vaccinating its population in January, after it received 1 million doses of Covishield vaccines from India as a grant. Subsequently, the country placed an order for additional vaccine doses from India, to be bought by the neighbouring country. Nepal, however, received only half of the number ordered for as the second Covid wave in India resulted in a domestic shortage.

ThePrint had earlier reported that New Delhi is aiming to release at least those vaccines that have been bought by Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal and that are yet to be delivered, by July-end or August.

China also plans to give 1 million vaccine doses to Nepal, of which 80,000 has been delivered.

(Edited by Poulomi Banerjee)

Also read: Army seeks infantry combat vehicles: What are they & why it’s taken 3 attempts to acquire them

Indigenously developed by DRDO, the rockets were fired from multi-barrel Rocket Launcher (MBRL) at the Integrated Test Range (ITR) on salvo mode meeting all the mission objectives
India successfully test-fired an advanced version of Pinaka rocket system and 122-mm calibre rocket from a test facility off Odisha coast. As many as 25 extended range Pinaka rockets and four 122-mm rockets were launched in quick succession against targets at different ranges.
Indigenously developed by DRDO, the rockets were fired from Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher (MBRL) at the Integrated Test Range (ITR) on salvo mode meeting all the mission objectives.
Defence sources said while 22 rounds of Pinaka rocket were test-fired on Thursday, three rounds of the same system and four rounds of 122-mm rockets were tested on Friday. The enhanced range version of the Pinaka system can destroy targets at distances up to 45 km.
This was the first mission in the last three months and it was conducted amid the Covid-19 restrictions. “The flight test of rockets were tracked by range instruments including telemetry, radar and electro-optical tracking system deployed by ITR and Proof and Experimental Establishment,” said a defence official.
Pinaka has been developed jointly by Pune-based Armament Research and Development Establishment (ARDE) and High Energy Materials Research Laboratory (HEMRL) with manufacturing support from Economic Explosives Limited, Nagpur. The new rocket will replace the existing Pinaka Mk-I rockets.
The 15-foot long rocket weighs around 280 kg and can carry warheads up to 100 kg. The trials were conducted with some improvements in the system making it more lethal. The unguided rocket system can neutralise large areas with rapid salvos.
DRDO Chairman G Satheesh Reddy said the quick reaction time and high rate of fire of the system will give an edge to the armed forces during a low-intensity conflict situation. The development of the extended range Pinaka system was taken up to achieve longer range performance, he added.
Developed by ARDE and HEMRL, the upgraded 122-mm rocket system will replace the existing 122-mm Grad rockets. The rockets have been developed for Army applications and can destroy targets up to 40 km.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh congratulated DRDO and Industry on the successful launch of both the rocket systems. He also commended the efforts of the teams involved in the mission.

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Karwar (Karnataka): Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Thursday said the naval base being developed here under “Project Seabird” should be Asia’s biggest, and he would try to get budget allocation enhanced for it, if required.

He also said India should aim to be among one of the top three naval powers in the world in the next 10-12 years time.

“I had a curiosity before visiting Project Seabird to see and understand it…I’m happy seeing Karwar closely and can say that my confidence level has increased towards this naval base,” Singh said.

Addressing the Indian Navy officers and sailors, he said, with the completion of the project, not only India’s defence preparedness will be strengthened, but also the country’s trade, economy and the humanitarian assistance that it provides will also get more strength.

“It is said that this will become India’s largest naval base, but I have said not only India’s, our wish is that this should become Asia’s biggest naval base, and I will try to get budget allocation increased if required for this,” he added.

Singh, accompanied by Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Karambir Singh, undertook an aerial survey of project area and sites, prior to arriving at INS Kadamba Helipad here.

Stating that during the aerial survey of the project, he could see its future, the Defence Minister said, the future of this naval base is “very bright” and the credit for this has to go to the officers and sailors.

“I have also seen the country’s first sealift facility, which will improve our maintenance compared to earlier…so I say this naval base is different from the rest,” he said.

Noting that India’s strength is growing, Singh said, “..India is now among the five major naval powers in the world, we should aim to be among the top three in the next ten to twelve years.”

Indian Navy’s contribution in maritime and national security is immense, Singh said.

Not only him, but those with the knowledge on security-related issues are of the view that the Navy will play the most important role in the country’s security in the future, he added.

Citing the role played by the navy in the past like the liberation of Goa, and India-Pakistan wars, among others, he said there is Navy’s role in improving diplomatic relations and recalled the service rendered by it during the COVID pandemic, which has gained appreciation from other countries too.

“Some countries have come close to us, it is because of you,” he said, adding, in this way not only as a defence power, the Navy has also safeguarded the country’s global interests.

Highlighting the Navy’s role in improving trade and cultural ties with other countries, Singh said, “we have 7,500 km of coastline, 1,100 islands, 25 lakh sq km of exclusive economic zones that can play an important role in the development of the world with the help of our capabilities and capacity.”

“Sometimes we forget our own capability in front of other global powers…..with courage we can achieve things, victory can be achieved during a fight with courage and not only because of ammunition.”

“You might have seen, we have proved it (victory with courage).. this time, I don’t want to take any names, you are aware of it, it is in our defence forces,” he said.

Noting the Navy’s role in maintaining peace and development in the Indian Ocean Region, and in realising the PM’s vision of ‘SAGAR’ (Security & Growth for All in Region), Singh said, at the time when economic and political relations are fast changing, there is a need for Indian Navy to be strengthened further.

“We have to be prepared for the future, we will have to improve our capacity and capability,” he said.

There are no shortcomings in mutual coordination between the country’s tri-services, “but we have thought about further improving it.” Singh said that the Defence Ministry is also taking up certain reforms.

Speaking on self-reliance in the defence sector, he said 64 per cent of the capital procurement budget will only be for domestic procurement and several changes have been made in the defence acquisition procedure.

As many as 46 out of 48 ships and submarines being procured are being built in Indian shipyards, Singh said, adding, Indigenous Aircraft Carrier, INS Vikrant will be completed soon and is likely to be commissioned as the country completes 75 years of Independence.

The Defence Minister is also scheduled to visit Kochi to review the progress of construction of the indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC) there.

Also read: Army seeks infantry combat vehicles: What are they & why it’s taken 3 attempts to acquire them

Singh is also scheduled to visit training establishment of the Southern Naval Command, where he will be briefed on ongoing operational activities being undertaken by the Command.

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Kochi: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh will visit the Cochin Shipyard Limited on Friday to review the progress of the construction of the Indigenous Aircraft Carrier(IAC) there, a defence release said here.

The Carrier will be christened INS Vikrant on commissioning.

Singh arrived at the Southern Naval Command here on Thursday evening on his maiden visit to the Command, the release said.

He was accompanied by Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Karambir Singh.

After reviewing the progress of the IAC construction, Singh will visit a few important training establishments of the Southern Naval Command and will be briefed on important ongoing training and operational activities being undertaken by the Command.

“Singh will also be briefed on the COVID-19 innovations and the indigenisation efforts of the Indian Navy, as also the aid provided to the civil administration in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic”, it said.

He will leave for New Delhi on Friday evening.

Also read: Raising theatre commands can’t be left to the military. It’s a govt’s job all over the world

The appearance of the articles suggests that instances of indiscipline involving younger personnel have occurred in the PLA which, in turn, have raised concerns about the political reliability and loyalty of the younger personnel. Xi Jinping is adamant that the PLA remains under the CCP. The articles probably herald the start of a new campaign in the PLA, emphasising political reliability.

New challenge: Conceding the Net’s importance for young soldiers, stress is laid on countering online propaganda. Reuters

Jayadeva Ranade

President, Centre for China Analysis and Strategy

With anti-China sentiment rising globally and US President Joe Biden making efforts to form a broad coalition to contain China’s rise, anxiety in the leadership echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has heightened over the possibility of a ‘colour revolution’. This anxiety has spread to the CCP’s sword arm, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

While an article in the People’s Liberation Army Daily on May 5, 2020, had pointed to such concerns in military circles, at least two recent articles underscore that these worries have resurfaced, and more strongly. Last year’s PLA Daily article had alluded to major powers utilising the difficult post-Covid global economic situation for gaining overall strategic advantage. It had cautioned they could use the economic crisis to cause a recession in China and provoke social unrest. Advocating that financial and military preparedness would have to be commensurate, it warned that an economic crisis could, in turn, cause a political crisis.

Amid a series of warnings to citizens by China’s Ministry of State Security (MoSS) since April this year to be vigilant against attempts by the US and the West to instigate a ‘colour revolution’ in China, similar anxieties in the PLA have recently become transparent. Two articles by PLA officers this May reflect these anxieties.

On May 20, 2021, the Chinese government’s largest think tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), published an article authored jointly by two PLA officers from the Political College of National Defense University and the Joint Logistics Support Force Longyan Comprehensive Warehouse Support Team.

Their article disclosed that serious concerns exist about the PLA rank and file adhering to the policy of the party’s absolute leadership over the army.

Asserting that “the party’s absolute leadership over the army is the fundamental principle of our party’s army building and ruling the army”, they said this principle is facing new challenges today. They enumerated the reasons as: the pace of military modernisation and rejuvenating the army; new methods of building the army at the grassroots level; the “profound new changes” in mission requirements, including the composition of officers and soldiers and troop organisation; and the external social environment.

They said these obstruct efforts to ensure that the grassroots level accepts “the party’s absolute leadership over the army”.

The article insisted that unless “the party’s absolute leadership of the army is accepted down the line to the grassroots level”, the majority of officers and soldiers will face severe tests in their missions in complex struggles.

Additionally, it regretted that “officers and soldiers of the new era generally lack the training in the severe and complex environment and the baptism of blood and fire on the battlefield.”

The article emphasised that if the grassroots level of the army is not strong politically and “lack understanding and mastery of the party’s absolute leadership over the military”, they would be more susceptible to “the extremely deceptive political propaganda of the hostile forces.”

Keeping in mind that college and high school graduates today constitute the largest single source of recruits and their thinking could well have been influenced by “liberal” teachers and professors, the article emphasised the importance of clearing out “the fog of thought”.

It recalled Chinese President Xi Jinping’s warning that “some Western countries are stepping up to instigate ‘colour revolutions’ in our country, stepping up the implementation of online ‘Cultural Cold War’ and ‘political genetic modification’ projects in an attempt to root out our military officers and soldiers and pull the military out of the party banner.”

Xi Jinping asserted that “The challenges we face in the field of ideology and political security are very serious” and it is imperative “to first strengthen positive publicity and guidance of public opinion… Consolidate and strengthen the mainstream ideological and public opinion… and guide officers and soldiers to grasp correct standpoints and viewpoints.”

He called for self-confidence in the present system while comparing China and foreign countries. The article reiterated Xi Jinping’s caution that “The so-called process of ‘democratisation’ in the West has brought about long-term turmoil and war” and “the most fundamental thing is to always uphold the party’s absolute leadership over the army.”

Acknowledging the importance of the Internet for the young officers and soldiers, described as of the “media generation”, the article underscored the importance of countering online propaganda. It recalled Xi Jinping’s instruction that the new situation “urgently requires us to change our minds, carry out online struggles like a war, and continuously strengthen the ability of officers and soldiers to resist the erosion of social corruption and the infiltration and destruction of hostile forces”.

Expressing doubts about the political reliability of the younger PLA officers and soldiers, the article’s authors recommended enhanced emphasis on “educating” the personnel.

The sentiments were indirectly echoed the same week in a Liberation Army Daily article whose author was identified only as a member of PLA Unit 31006. He asserted that “Party members must enhance their sense of honour” and bolster the “sense of pride as a member of the party organisation.” The unnamed author spoke of the inspiration gained from “the firm belief of the revolutionary ancestors” and urged the soldiers to emulate “their infinite loyalty to the party” and the manner they cherished “the honourable title of” communist”!

The appearance of these articles suggests that instances of indiscipline involving younger personnel have occurred in the PLA which, in turn, have raised concerns about the political reliability and loyalty of the younger personnel. Xi Jinping is personally adamant that the PLA remains under the CCP. The articles probably herald the start of a new campaign in the PLA, emphasising political reliability.  

Stuck in Chinese debt, its problems are only growing

At A Price: The Gwadar port’s utility to Pakistan is questionable, especially given the huge costs of the debts it will have to repay to China. AP

G Parthasarathy

Chancellor, Jammu Central University & former High Commissioner to Pakistan

Five decades after its surrender in Dhaka, Pakistan is finding that Bangladesh, which remained poverty-stricken because of its exploitation by West Pakistan, is today a dynamic and growingly prosperous country. Bangladesh, with a population of 160 million, is now competing with the booming economies of its Southeast Asian neighbours. Its economy has grown at 6% annually over the past two decades. Even during the Covid challenge, it is expected to register a growth of 6.8% in 2021 and 7.2% in 2022, by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Pakistan, on the other hand, is a massive recipient of foreign doles. It averaged a growth rate of around 3.5% in the years preceding the pandemic.

Bangladesh has also been far ahead of Pakistan in human development indicators, like women’s education and literacy. With foreign exchange reserves of $45 billion, Bangladesh has provided $200 million under a currency swap agreement to Sri Lanka. Bangladesh is ahead of Pakistan economically, even as it spared no effort to look after hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees from Myanmar.

Pakistan, in contrast, has uneasy relations with virtually all its neighbours, notably India and Afghanistan. Pakistan has also incurred Iranian displeasure over its trans-border support for disgruntled elements from Iran. Pakistan has become a virtual international “basket case”, feverishly looking around for financial “aid” from international institutions like the IMF, World Bank, ADB and its “all-weather friend” China. Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have contributed generously to address Pakistan’s economic woes, recently had second thoughts on aiding Pakistan.

Pakistan’s economic woes have grown rapidly in recent years. Its total external debt had risen from $44.35 billion in 2013 to $90.12 billion in April 2021. Interestingly, Pakistan’s debt repayments to China rose from 9.3% in the recent past to 27.4% in 2021. These are official figures, which do not necessarily reflect the real position on Pakistan’s growing debts to China. The real costs will be substantially more when the $65 billion CPEC, linking Gilgit-Baltistan in PoK to the port of Gwadar in Balochistan, fully takes shape. This ‘corridor’ may be of great use to China. Its utility to Pakistan is, however, questionable, especially given the huge costs of the debts that Pakistan will have to repay to China.

Gwadar is now virtually a Chinese port. It is just a question of time before the Chinese take over total control of the port. They even now have a dominant say on who enters and who leaves the port. Gwadar is set to become a major strategic naval base for China. This becomes inevitable as China proceeds to complete its wide range of projects under CPEC, which will ultimately link Gilgit-Baltistan to the Arabian Sea at Gwadar. It is very likely that with Pakistan borrowing more than it can repay, Gwadar will become a replica of the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka that was built with Chinese ‘aid’. Hambantota is now virtually owned by China.

The foundations of the CPEC were laid in 2013, when Chinese premier Li Keqiang visited Pakistan. The project has become more controversial after Lt Gen Asim Saleem Bajwa was appointed its chairman. He and his family reportedly have a colourful record of their assets abroad. Saudi Arabia, which was planning to invest $10 billion in the Gwadar port, has now withdrawn and indicated that the money will be invested in Karachi. Saudi Arabia knows that China is set to invest $25 billion in Riyadh’s main rival/adversary, Iran, located close to Gwadar.

While one would have expected a sense of circumspection in Pakistan’s dealings with the Americans, Imran Khan and his loyalists have gone ballistic in criticising and embarrassing the Biden administration. The Pakistan media has also gone ballistic, declaring that the US had been told ‘firmly’ that Pakistan would not provide any bases on its territory for US drones to be deployed for action in Afghanistan. There have been separate meetings between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and CIA director William Burns, with their Pakistani counterparts, and the army chief, General Bajwa. Moreover, wide publicity was given to Imran’s decision to refuse a request for a meeting by the visiting CIA director.

The Pakistan army, which has sought to maintain good relations with the US, would be wondering what is going on, as virtually every visiting American invariably pays homage to General Bajwa, who understandably has concerns about instability and turmoil in Afghanistan. Pakistan is going to be fully focused on developments in Afghanistan in the wake of the US withdrawal. The Taliban are determined to rule Afghanistan again. They are not ready to share power. The Taliban will, however, meet growing resistance as they approach Kabul. They will also meet strong resistance in non-Pashtun regions. While Pakistan is backing its protégés, it will have to watch out for trouble in its Pashtun areas bordering Afghanistan. Iran would reluctantly be drawn into the conflict.

India would be well advised to stay at an arm’s length from any direct involvement in the raging civil war, while remaining in touch with its friends in Afghanistan. There can be no meaningful relations with an Imran Khan-led government. We, however, need to keep our “back channel” lines of communication with Pakistan open. India should also ensure that Pakistan is not let off the hook in the Financial Action Task Force, especially given its continuing support for leaders of terrorist groups. Moreover, the architects of the terrorist attacks on our Parliament and Mumbai — Maulana Masood Azhar and Hafiz Mohammed Saeed — have mysteriously disappeared, just before the FATF meeting.