Maj Gen Ashok K Mehta (retd)

Military Commentator

THE dissolution of Parliament in Nepal by KP Oli is a constitutional coup but no surprise, coming from an embattled Prime Minister. The power struggle between Oli and Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Chairman PK Dahal started soon after their two parties — CPN Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) and CPN (Maoist-Centre) — won the elections in a historic mandate in 2017 and then merged. The NCP’s rise on an anti-India, ultra-nationalist wave led by Oli also galvanised the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), with China gradually overtaking India in several spheres of influence. Beijing has invested heavily in the stability of the NCP and the Oli government to undercut further New Delhi’s fading footprint. India had resigned itself to the idea of five years of NCP rule, hoping, not expecting, a split in the party, though a leadership change was not ruled out.

Oli has proved to be an ineffective leader, fumbling with overwhelming majorities in both Houses of Parliament, six out of seven provincial governments and local bodies. Oli’s personal agenda not only antagonised members of his own party, including former Prime Ministers Madhav Nepal, JN Khanal and Dahal, but also members of the Opposition, including another Leftist ex-PM, BR Bhattarai. But President BD Bhandari and the redoubtable Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi, who rescued Oli from multiple crises, remain steadfast allies. Last week, Oli reintroduced an ordinance on the Constitutional Council Act that he had deviously promulgated and withdrawn in April which changes the quorum for appointment to statutory bodies. He immediately filled 45 posts even as he was being questioned over his conduct and performance by the Party Secretariat and Standing Committee where his faction is in minority. The last straw which broke Oli’s back was when 91 of the 170 party lawmakers presented a no-trust motion replacing him as Prime Minister with his nemesis, Dahal, and also the new leader of the parliamentary party. With presidential blessing, Oli dissolved the House in which the NCP has a near two-thirds majority and two years to go. Next day, he addressed the nation, justifying his drastic action, but not before political and public anger had swept the streets.

As Nepal’s new Constitution does not provide for dissolving the House, the Supreme Court has been flooded with petitions. Oli is likely to be the caretaker PM till the mid-term elections are held in April/May during a pandemic that is nowhere under control, for which his government is to blame. While seven Cabinet ministers from the Dahal faction have resigned from the government, two ministers have not. Plenty of factional crossover has taken place within the party and more will follow, depending on the court verdict. If the court rejects Oli’s plea and restores Parliament, he will have no legs to stand on and will be compelled to resign. On the other hand, if Oli’s decision is upheld, Nepal will undertake a dangerous election. Either way, the stability of the government and the party will be the casualties.

The origin of the Oli-Dahal power struggle goes back to early 2018 when Dahal, as NCP president, considered friendlier to India than Oli, was invited first on an official visit and spoke at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), New Delhi. In response to a question on power-sharing by me, he said: ‘yes, there is an agreement between Oli ji and me that we will be prime ministers for two-and-a-half years each.” The uneasy lull over this agreement continued till March 2019, when Oli refused to endorse Dahal’s nomination of communist stalwart and former Deputy PM BD Gautam to the Upper House. This was days before Oli was hospitalised for his second kidney transplant. I was in Kathmandu at the time and the grapevine had indicated that Madhav Nepal would become the next PM; Dahal, the permanent party chairman; and JN Khanal, the President-in-waiting. The Dahal group had written off Oli but in deference to his health, another ceasefire was declared. Then in November 2019, President Bhandari brokered the famous Oli-Dahal agreement which buried the power-sharing agreement and clarified their roles as Prime Minister and Executive Chairman with finality. But Oli refused to give up his party co-chair, encroaching on Dahal’s turf. In September 2020, a six-member NCP Task Force defined further the mandate of the two warring leaders.

But the two main crises were in April/May and July. The first was over the implementation of the agreement on one-man-one-post. The second was in July when the Dahal faction demanded Oli’s resignation over his allegation that India was trying to unseat his government. In both these crises, Yanqi, Bhandari and Gautam turned the elusive Pimpernel, played a crucial role in saving Oli and his government as well as preventing the break-up of the NCP — till Sunday’s blow-up.

China has made deep inroads in Nepal, broadening relations with all political parties, government institutions, security forces and civil society. The CCP and NCP have institutionalised their ties. Political and military delegations are expanding exchange programmes. Last year, Chinese tourists coming by air outnumbered the Indian ones. President Xi Jinping recently spoke to his counterpart Bhandari and Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held two virtual meetings with Pakistan, Nepal and Afghanistan on the pandemic. Chinese aid and investment now exceed India’s, but connectivity projects are yet to take off. Beijing has shed all inhibitions on interference in internal affairs as it attempts to improve its political and strategic profile in Nepal. The ongoing political turbulence could end up from being a serious jolt to undermining the Chinese game plan.

Whatever the outcome of the parliamentary and intra-party crises, it is advantage India. A change of guard will deal a new hand to India as Nepal sadly transits to a new mess.

THE seizure of a box with hand grenades in Gurdaspur, dropped by a drone launched from across the border, is a stark reminder of the newest logistical and technological challenge posed by Pakistan’s narco-terror enterprise. From trafficking drugs and small arms using flying objects, it is now relying on upgraded versions that can ferry larger and heavier payloads. There have been a number of instances of security forces capturing arms and ammunition making their way in through drone infiltration, and the winter months with fog could see more such activity in Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir.

Five days prior to the latest midnight drop — which was detected by alert security personnel and did not go unchallenged — a drone module with international linkages was busted in Amritsar. As they try to unravel the nexus of the accused, arrested following multiple raids, with Pakistan-based smugglers and terrorist outfits, the investigating agencies have their hands full. The task has been made more difficult following revelations that drones were being procured, assembled, sold and repaired right in the middle of the national capital without any government authorisation. Purchased drones are meant to be registered and a Unique Identification Number is to be applied for. Since this was not done, the drones could not be monitored.

As efforts are on to deploy improved anti-drone systems and find better technical solutions, there is also a demand to install low-level radars along the border to destroy the quadcopters. The threat posed by Chinese armed drones being exported to Pakistan, too, is not lost on the security establishment. The urgency required to deal with the crisis at hand cannot be stressed enough. Another aspect that needs attention is the glaring gaps in drone management and regulation in the country. Data estimation of rogue or unregulated drones has already been conducted. In the works is training of even police personnel in drone detection, tracking and identification. It’s bound to be a protracted battle.

Chandigarh, December 22

Urging the AAP to refrain from indulging in mudslinging, CM Capt Amarinder Singh today made it clear that his meeting with Home Minister (HM) Amit Shah was only to discuss issues related to national security.

He said being the Home Minister of the border state, it was his foremost responsibility to apprise the Centre of developments in Punjab.

The CM said he won’t hesitate to meet the PM and the HM whenever issues of internal security were fanned by neighbouring hostile nations. He ridiculed the AAP’s allegations that he met Shah with regard to the ED cases as absolutely baseless, politically motivated and erroneous.

He clarified that no case had been filed by the ED against him. There was, however, a case filed by the ED against his son, Raninder Singh, which has been going on for more than a decade that too under FEMA, which at most was a civil fiscal matter. The HC has also stayed all earlier incorrect income tax assessment orders served on his son.

He dared Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal to come clean on his dubious stand on the new farm laws, which were earlier notified by his government. “Now he is shedding crocodile tears over this sensitive issue by showing fake sympathy with the farmers, which is nothing but sheer theatrics on Kejriwal’s part,” the CM said. — TNS

Parvesh Sharma

Tribune News Service

Sangrur, December 22

Having no money or land, Jagdeep Singh (30) from Shergarh Cheema village has expressed solidarity with the protesting farmers by running 323 km on foot till the Delhi border last week. He completed the one-side journey in 46 hours and returned on Monday.

On Tuesday, he announced to run till Delhi again from Thursday to prove that “Udta Punjab” is a baseless allegation. So far, he has covered four Takhts on foot. He announced to run till the fifth Takht after the rollback of the Central farm laws.

“I wanted to stay put till the stir ended, but had to return due to some family problem. Now, I will again run to the Delhi border on Thursday and only return after the victory of our farmers,” said Jagdeep, who was honoured by the Ramgarhia Welfare Society of Shergarh Cheema village.

Jagdeep is a Class XII pass out and wanted to study more but the poor financial condition of the family restricted him. His mother works as a peon in a private school while father is a mechanic of farm equipment in the village.

He has become an inspiration for youth. “Neither have I participated in any competition nor do I take any healthy diet. I am running to inspire youngsters against drugs.”

Karam Prakash

Tribune News Service

Patiala, December 22

To show their resentment against corporate houses, residents of Tohra village in Patiala snapped the power supply to a mobile tower allegedly owned by a business house here on Tuesday.

The villagers also passed a resolution to, henceforth, boycott all the products of the said corporate house. The villagers held a protest rally and raised slogans against corporate houses.

Satwinder Singh Tohra, a villager, said the corporate houses were the ones who would be benefitted the most by the three farm laws. “We have upped the ante against the corporate houses. We will continue our fight until the three farm laws are repealed.”

He said the Modi government on purpose, by enacting the laws, had paved the way for the corporate houses to get into the agriculture sector, but they won’t let them to do their business in Punjab.

Meanwhile, Baljinder Singh, sarpanch, said they had passed a resolution to boycott all products manufactured by the corporate houses. He said, “Farmers are agitating against the Centre at the Delhi borders and we have started a protest against the corporate houses in the villages.”

The village also passed a resolution that one member from each family would attend the protest at the Delhi borders to support the farmers.

In Muktsar, tower premises locked

Muktsar: Farmers on Tuesday snapped the power supply to a cell phone tower of a private company in Raniwala village here. They also locked the entrance of the tower premises. Protesters said they wouldn’t allow the tower to become functional until the farm laws were repealed. Meanwhile, a retail store temporarily closed in view of the protest.

Sanjeev Singh Bariana

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, December 22

Harpreet Singh, a farmer whose photograh was used by the Punjab BJP to drum up support in favour of farm laws, has actually been sitting among the protesting farmers on the Singhu border since the first week of December.

The poster that was used on Punjab BJP’s Facebook page was removed after uproar.

Harpreet Singh said, “I was amused first, but then got angry. How can they be so insensitive?” He is engaged in media projects displaying the angst of the farmers, their inconvenience and their struggle.  Photographs clicked by Harpeet that highlighted the protest have gone viral.

Harpreet Singh, known as ‘Harp farmer’ among friends has done his Masters in Software Engineering from the Indian Institute of Information Technology, Pune. Based at his village, Nadalon in Hoshiarpur district, his family owns 2-acre land. “I know the pain of a small farmer. I am shocked and more so with our comparison with Khalistanis and Maoists.”

“I got a call yesterday late evening from a friend at my village that the BJP was using my picture on its Facebook page. First I laughed, but then I got offended. How could they do it without my permission? In a lighter vein, the artist has not even bothered to edit my picture professionally. The artist has used it from my pictures on the internet.”

“I will like to ask the government that if farmers where happy why would they be camping on the Delhi borders? Why will the old, including women, bear the cold of the shivering December? Why cannot government just withdraw the farm laws and rethink? It’s ego problem nothing else,” he said.

“If the government does not repeal the laws, we will not go back home,” he said firmly.

“The BJP is trying make the farmer agitation just a fight for MSP. This is not true. There are issues like the future of farmers in our country, particularly in the wake of scope for entry of the corporate. There are many more. I can only say that despite tall claims, Narendra Modi is not with the farmers,” Harpreet said.

A spokesperson of the Punjab BJP, Janardhan Sharma said, “We will look into the matter. I will get back.”

Mumbai, December 22

The Shiv Sena on Tuesday wondered what will be the outcome of the ongoing farmers’ protest after Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited a gurdwara and sought inspiration from Guru Tegh Bahadur, whose followers are among those protesters.

An editorial in the Sena mouthpiece ‘Saamana’ was referring to Modi’s visit on Sunday to Gurdwara Rakabganj in Delhi where he paid tributes to Guru Tegh Bahadur for his supreme sacrifice.

Guru Teg Bahadur, whose martyrdom day was observed on Saturday, was cremated at Gurdwara Rakabganj.

Also read: Protesting farmers show black flags to Haryana CM Khattar during his Ambala visit

Thousands of farmers, including Sikhs, have been protesting near the Delhi borders since November 26 against the Modi government’s three new farm laws.

The editorial in the Marathi daily said farmers from Punjab did not flinch even when Modi reached the gurdwara “turning his back towards the Sikh peasants protest” and continued with their demonstration.

“Prime Minister Modi sought inspiration from Guru Tegh Bahadur. Happy about it. Thousands of Sikh fighters are also fighting (protesting) from the same inspiration near Delhi border. Hence, it is a question what will be the outcome of the battle,” read the editorial.

Also read: Armed with revolutionary poem by Pash, Faridkot farmer cycles 400 km to Tikri border

It said ‘gurbani’ was being played when the Prime Minister reached the gurdwara.

The gurbani says services and devotion towards God will be of no use if one does not change his/her thoughts, the editorial noted.

The gurbani says reading holy religious book several times will be of no use if one does not understand its teachings, and also asks what will one do when his/her time comes and an account of his/her deeds is checked, it said.

The gurbani mentions that none could defend himself from time, it added.

Also read: Farmer union leaders to meet, discuss plan of action

It is “not right” that Modi’s political opponents criticise him for anything he does, the editorial said in a cryptic remark and asked what was there to be restless if he visited the gurdwara.

Modi’s opponents are alleging “politics” behind the Prime Minister’s visit to the gurdwara and asking why are the farmers from Punjab protesting in the cold if he loves Sikhs so much, it said.

“…but none should question Modi’s faith. Guru Tegh Bahadur was a great saint. The Guru accepted martyrdom for humanity, principles and ideals…he was the protector of religion. Hence, not only Sikhs, everyone on this land should bow before Guru Tegh Bahadur,” read the editorial. PTI