File photo of Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa | @OfficialDGISPR | TwitterText Size: A- A+

Decoding Pakistan’s actions can be a difficult game. There are so many intertwined threads and hidden agendas that analysing them can be exhausting. But the task is necessary, especially when this volatile country hikes its defence expenditure by a reported 6.28 per cent. That’s a lot for anyone, but especially Pakistan, which has trouble paying its bills. Added to that is speculation that the defence rise is tied to the concessions that Pakistan expects from the US in its policy on Afghanistan. There’s no end to the audacity of Rawalpindi, but that bluff can be called, for many reasons. The cards are simply not falling right.

Defence budget and Pakistan’s economy

First, the budget itself. The unseemly brawl during the budget session was bad enough, with mostly treasury benches resorting to violence and name-calling. But the devil lies in the details of those budget papers being thrown around. Actual expenditure for the defence services, which in India covers several pages of detailed information, is so short as to be a parody. The total for ‘Defence Services’ is PKR 1.37 trillion, far more than what the federal government transfers to its provinces. That figure doesn’t include pensions pegged at PKR 360 billion and the Armed Forces Development Program at PKR 340 billion. There are other heads that are opaque, including the Defence Services Miscellaneous and Security Deposits, which runs to more than PKR 184 million. Add all of this up, and the total is far above the stated figure.

Pakistani analysts indignantly point out that the army gets just 1.1 per cent of GDP. India’s entire defence budget is just 2.15 per cent of GDP. And there’s not a bit of use saying India’s GDP is sized at $2,709 billion trillion, almost ten times that of  Pakistan’s $263 billion or thereabouts. India is more than twice the size in territory with upwards of 13,000 sq. km in land boundaries to Pakistan’s 7,257 sq. km, and a coastline about seven times more. Besides, we have a fire breathing dragon at our borders. Pakistan has co-opted it, fire and all.

Also read: Take Indian Army out of counterinsurgency. It has to tackle leaner, modern PLA

Mysterious figures and calculations  

Then there are the perplexing figures. For instance, there is a mysterious rise in remittances, which is sustaining the current account balance. It was as much as $14 billion in the first half of FY 2020-21, despite a steep slump in workforce exports from 6,25,203 in 2019 to 2,24,705 in FY 2020. That is supported by data sets from the State Bank, which shows a precipitous drop

Pakistan’s own economists express doubts about its claimed 3.94 per cent GDP growth rate. Prime Minister Imran Khan now claims this as 4 per cent and above growth rate. The International Monetary Fund’s sedate prediction? It’s 1.5 per cent. Those are very large gaps in assessments. And here’s the worst news. About a quarter of the budget deficit of PKR 4 trillion is to be financed in part by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and international bonds.

But as analysts note, the IMF has quietly decided to postpone its review until the government can demonstrate the viability of the budget. In simple words, the creditors are not enthusiastic about Imran Khan’s mathematics. That being the case, the projections for a defence budget rise to such an extent seems dim. Yet, the government powers on in high confidence.

Also read: Pakistan keeps making bad decisions with India. Its insecurity is hurting peace

Same old, same old

The reason for high confidence is hardly rocket science. Top US officials like CIA chief William Burns have been visiting recently, at a time when the US is hastening out of Afghanistan. Leaks from Islamabad confirmed the secret visit, with public refusals on any operations from Pakistan into Afghan territory. In fact, so vociferous are these denials that it virtually confirms that there is a great deal of hard bargaining going on in return for Pakistan’s help in delivering its ‘ace in the hole’, which is the Taliban, and arising from that, urgently needed ground intelligence.

The bargaining was apparent in a New York Times story, which reported that Pakistanis wanted prior knowledge of any US attack into Afghanistan, with some Pakistani officials going so far as to say that the US should just hand over the drones to them. That in itself would have infuriated CIA officials. But Islamabad, like Oliver Twist, is never afraid of asking for more. Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin was quoted as saying that US withdrawal from Afghanistan had given Pakistan ‘some space’ in diluting the demands of the IMF. Tarin denied it later, but the position was clear. Even as the IMF balks at Pakistan’s unrealistic budget, Islamabad clearly feels it has the dominant hand to push the international lending agency to give it what it wants. This is not some wishful thinking. After all, this has been the story since the 1980s when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. In three decades, Islamabad has honed such bargaining into a fine art.

Also read: High time Indian foreign policy jettisons ‘don’t annoy China’ notion & supports virus probe

The crux in arm–twisting

The crux of it all is whether the US can call Pakistan’s bluff – which is that it will ‘control’ the Taliban and persuade it to deliver US objectives; primarily eradicating the terror threat, and ensuring a modicum of uniform governance for all. This assumes that the Taliban will act almost entirely on Pakistan’s wishes, providing intelligence on the ground on the activities of al-Qaeda and its many affiliates or competitors like the Islamic State. True, that is almost exactly what the Taliban commanders have done for the last two decades, given the need for safe havens.

But the picture has changed. As victory looms large, differences in power-sharing will inevitably emerge, with indicators already pointing in that direction. A new leadership may emerge that can’t be taken for granted. True, the Haqqanis and the like will still retain their strength in areas bordering Pakistan. But much of the rest, especially in the north and west, is up for grabs.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s meeting with Central Asian leaders indicates the US is scouting for alternative bases. That’s not going to be easy, given that suitable airfields (which means sufficiently remote) are hard to find. Karshi Khanabad in Uzbekistan, for instance, was abandoned after it was found to be polluted with toxic materials including depleted uranium. Kyrgyzstan seems to offer a place to everyone, including India. Kazakhstan is much too far. Turkmenistan has declared neutrality. Besides, none will want to annoy Moscow, or the Taliban.

The advantage is that this time, the US is there not to target the Taliban, with which it has a peace agreement, but to hit the others, for which it is willing to pay in ‘support’ for the future Afghan government. For the US, it might be easier to kiss and make up with Moscow, than ever hope that Pakistan will change its double-dealing nature. Even as Islamabad gears up for the IMF to loosen the strings, India needs to do some hard diplomacy as well as open its purse, to ensure that US objectives are met in other geographies, and that its own Taliban outreach delivers at least the confidence that far more reliable friends are there for the long haul. Pakistan’s ambitious defence budget needs to stay where it is, on paper. That is good for everyone, including Pakistan itself.

The author is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views are personal.

(Edited by Prashant Dixit)

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Rajouri SHO alleges assault at Army’s Poshana checkpoint

Photo for representation only. File photo

Tribune News Service

Jammu, June 20

The Army has ordered an internal inquiry into the alleged assault on a police officer by its personnel at a checkpoint in Poonch district, sources said on Sunday.

Rajouri Station House Officer (SHO) Sameer Jilani was travelling to Kashmir to visit his ailing mother when he was allegedly manhandled by Army personnel, led by an officer, at Poshana checkpoint on Mughal Road on Saturday.

Terming it as unfortunate, sources said the one-off incident was an aberration to the excellent work being done by both the security agencies in ensuring a secure environment. An Army officer said the force and the police reaffirm their solidarity towards ‘awaam’ (public) and are committed to maintain peace and stability in the region. The police have registered an FIR against the soldiers.— PTI

The mortal remains of Milkha Singh were immersed in the Sutlej at Gurdwara Patalpuri Sahib here on Sunday. – File photo

Kiratpur Sahib, June 20

The mortal remains of Milkha Singh were immersed in the Sutlej at Gurdwara Patalpuri Sahib here on Sunday.

After a long battle with Covid, the 91-year-old sprinter died at the PGI, Chandigarh, late on Friday night.

His son and ace golfer Jeev Milkha Singh along with sisters and other relatives reached Gurdwara Patalpuri Sahib in the morning where an ‘ardas’ was offered for the departed soul. Following this, his ashes were immersed in the Sutlej. Later, the relatives paid obeisance at the gurdwara. — TNS

NGO makes blankets, bags, masks for old-age home inmates

Tribune News Service

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, June 20

With large stacks of military uniform awaiting “graceful” disposal, a retired Army officer has set up an NGO, Sewaj Neesim Foundation, which collects used uniform and uses it to prepare blankets, schoolbags, masks, aprons, bibs and other useful items.

Maj Gen Ashim Kohli (retd) says, “We have so far collected 4,000 pairs of uniform, but the work was affected due to the Covid-19 pandemic.”

An associated NGO is getting the stitching work done from women working from homes in slum areas. It has employed nearly 10 women in NCR and another seven in Pune.

The NGO aims to collect old uniform from across the country. The products made from recycled cloth would be donated to the needy, especially in children and old-age homes.

Maj Gen Kohli says, “The military uniform cannot be thrown away or given to the poor as non-authorised persons are allowed to wear it or may misuse it. We thus came up with this idea of gracefully disposing of the uniform.”

Psychiatrists have a term for it ‘broken heart syndrome’

India’s Flying Sikh Milkha Singh has died, five days after his wife Nirmal Kaur succumbed to Covid. — Tribune Photo

New Delhi, June 19

India’s Flying Sikh Milkha Singh has died, five days after his wife Nirmal Kaur succumbed to Covid.

As the pandemic swept through India, many other couples faced the same tragedy—partners for decades or perhaps beginning their journey together giving up on life, within weeks and sometimes just days of each other.

Psychiatrists have a term for it – ‘broken heart syndrome’. And the legendary Singhs may have epitomised it.

While Singh, one of India’s greatest sporting icons, died late Friday in a Chandigarh hospital after a long battle with Covid at the age of 91, his wife, national volleyball player Nirmal Kaur, passed away on June 13, 58 years after they got married and 65 years after they first met.

Their children, three daughters and a son, golfer Jeev Milkha Singh, doffed their hat to “true love and companionship”.

“He fought hard, but God has his ways, and it was perhaps true love and companionship that both our mother Nirmal ji and now Dad have passed away in a matter of five days,” a statement from the family said.

And they are not the only ones.

Former Rajasthan chief minister Jagannath Pahadia and his wife, former MLA and Rajya Sabha MP Shanti Pahadia, lived together and died together – well almost. He took his last breath at the age of 89 on May 20 in a Gurgaon hospital. She, two years younger, was in the same hospital and passed away three days later.

“Both of them lived together for their entire lives and remained politically active and left together for their heavenly abode. They were married in their childhood by their parents and lived happily thereafter,” their son Om Prakash Pahadia said.

Senior journalists Kalyan Baruah and Nilakhshi Bhattacharya also lost their battle to Covid in a Gurgaon hospital in May. Like the Pahadias, they, too, passed away within three days of each other.

After a lifetime of togetherness, Bikaner-based couple Om Prakash and Manju Devi couldn’t, it seems, bear to be apart either. They passed away in November within 15 days of each other.

Married for nearly four decades, the couple stuck together through many ups and downs, including financial woes and the weddings of their five daughters.

Their nephew, who did not want to be named, said it was possible his aunt could not bear the news of her husband’s death.

“While my uncle passed away in the hospital due to Covid complications, I think it was the grief of his death that likely resulted in my aunt suffering a brain haemorrhage that eventually led to her death,” he told PTI.

In such cases—where one partner has passed away while the other is still recovering—medical experts recommend that the news of the death be shared only after the spouse is well out of danger.

According to Mumbai-based psychiatrist Harish Shetty, lack of knowledge helps recovery.

“Informing the spouse when one is physically devastated can destroy mental equilibrium, thereby causing deterioration.

“I have been part of teams that have been involved in informing the other spouse after recovery. The presence of family, a doctor and a counsellor is ideal. Allowing the process of grieving to begin effectively with support is the key,” Shetty told PTI.

Gurgaon-based psychiatrist Jyoti Kapoor added that the news of the demise of a partner often makes the other suffer from what is known as a ‘broken heart syndrome’ – a temporary heart condition caused due to high stress and overwhelming emotions.

She said it was natural for couples who had lived together for decades to share a strong emotional dependence, where the loss of one can create significant stress for the other.

“Our personal experience, as well as research, has suggested that depending upon circumstances of the living partner and individual vulnerability to handle stress, the risk of death in male spouse after wife’s death is 18 per cent, and risk of women’s death following the death of the husband is around 16 per cent.

“This has sometimes been described as ‘broken heart syndrome’, a sort of physical ramification of extreme emotional stress among individuals with pre-existing physical vulnerabilities like chronic illness or frail health,” Kapoor said.

Losing a partner in the best of circumstances is challenging. People take years to come to terms with the death of a terminally ill spouse whose death is almost inevitable.

The pandemic has magnified this ordeal for couples—not only were the deaths sudden, but the partners also left behind were fighting for their own lives as well.

Arpita Basu Roy’s parents passed away within four days of each other. Both were in hospital together. Not visibly romantic, they were “soulmates” married for 30 years, she said. One would never eat, unless sure that the other person has eaten too.

So when her mother passed away, it was almost like her father knew, and gave up on his desire to live.

“The last day I saw my father, (after my mom expired), he was all numb. He did not even respond to my sister. He was staring blankly, as if in a state of shock. We think he understood that she was gone, and was unable to accept the news.

“They were soulmates and probably could not live away from one another… so they decided to depart together,” the Kolkata-based Roy told PTI.

While there is no data to establish the number of couples who succumbed to Covid-19, the National Commission for Protection of Child Rights (NCPCR) gives an estimate – that 3,261 children were orphaned during the pandemic.

This data, released earlier this month, only takes into account children from 0-18 years. The actual numbers would be much more.

An official in Tamil Nadu estimated that at least 50 couples succumbed to Covid-19 days after either one contracted the infection during the first wave last year.

District Child Protection offices in the state have identified about 50 children who had lost both parents.

Describing his enormous sense of loss at losing both parents to the virus, comedian Bhuvan Bam said nothing would ever be the same again.

“Lost both my lifelines to Covid. Aai aur Baba ke bina kuch bhi pehle jaisa nahi rahega. Ek mahine mein sab bikhar chuka hai. Ghar, sapne, sab kuch.

Meri aai mere pass nahi hai, baba mere saath nahi hain. Ab shuru se jeena seekhna padega. Mann nahi kar raha. (Nothing is same without my father and mother. Everything is shattered within one month. My home, my dreams, everything. Will have to learn living from scratch. I don’t want to.)

“Was I a good son? Did I do enough to save them? I’ll have to live with these questions forever. Can’t wait to see them again. I wish the day comes soon,” the Mumbai-based artist wrote on Instagram last week.

In Karnataka’s Mandya district, Nanjunde Gowda was anxiously awaiting the birth of his child, but died of Covid-19 on April 30. On May 11, his wife Mamata gave birth to their daughter. Three days later, she, too, was dead.

And Covid claimed another victim. — PTI

He was emotionally very upset after the unfortunate demise of his wife Nirmal Milkha Singh on 13 Jun and his condition became unstable since then.
Time n again he was uttering, since his wife s death, that ” Nirmal how could you go first, why I have lost this race to you, at least we could have been joint winners …
🙏🏽🎀🙏🏽
Perhaps the untold story of mutual love & regard made Milkha follow his wife.
Whole of Chandigarh is in pain….!!
Heartfelt Condolences!!💐💐

Punjab Governor Badnore, Union MoS Rijiju, Punjab CM Amarinder, VVIPs pay tributes

Tribune Web Desk

Chandigarh, June 19

India’s legendary “Flying Sikh” Milkha Singh, who died at the PGIMER late on Friday night after a month-long battle with Covid-19, was cremated with full state honours at the Sector 25 cremation ground here today.

A police contingent accorded the 91-year-old legendary track and field athlete the guard of honour and his son and ace golfer Jeev Milkha Singh lit the pyre.

Milkha was bid a tearful adieu in the presence of his family members and several dignitaries, including Union Sports Minister Kiren Rijiju.

Punjab Governor and Chandigarh Administrator V P Singh Badnore, Punjab Finance Minister Manpreet Singh Badal, Haryana’s Sports Minister Sandeep Singh were among the other dignitaries who attended the last rites.

Prof Jagat Ram, Director of PGIMER where Milkha was admitted, was also present.

A police contingent reversed arms and sounded the last post in the sprinter’s honour. Milkha was also given a gun salute.

The Punjab Government had declared a one-day state mourning and a holiday as a mark of respect to the legend.

Earlier, a wreath was also laid on behalf of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  Wreaths were also laid on behalf of the Army.

Chief Minister Amarinder Singh had earlier in the day said the Punjab government will accord state funeral to Milkha Singh

Earlier, the funeral procession started from Milkha’s Sector 8 residence.

His body was carried in a bedecked vehicle, with common people turning up along the short route to the Sector 25 cremation ground to pay their last respects to the legend.l

Interacting with reporters after the cremation, Rijiju spoke about Milkha’s last wish was to see India win an Olympic gold in athletics.

“Today, Milkha ji is not among us, but we will fulfil his wish. He has given a big message,” he said.

When asked if any award would be instituted in his name, Rijiju said these things will be discussed with family at an appropriate time and whatever needs to be done by the Sports Ministry in this regard will be done.

“We have told the family that right from the Prime Minister to Governor Sahab, who is present here, we are with them in their hour of grief. Entire nation is with them,” he said.

He said he was also carrying the message of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the family.

Governor Badnore said Milkha “was our pride”.

“Whenever I used to meet him, sometimes even in the golf course here, he would meet with great affection. Not only Chandigarh, Punjab and India, but Milkha ji’s demise is a loss to the entire world.  He was an inspiration for millions,” said Badnore.

Milkha died on Friday night after a month-long battle with COVID-19. He had lost his former national volleyball captain wife Nirmal Kaur to the same ailment on Sunday.

The Padma Shri awardee, who was nicknamed ‘The Flying Sikh’ for his achievements, is survived by Jeev and three daughters.

The legendary athlete was a four-time Asian Games gold medallist and the 1958 Commonwealth Games champion but his greatest performance remained the fourth-place finish in the 400m final of the 1960 Rome Olympics.

His timing of 45.6 sec at the Italian capital remained the national record for 38 years before Paramjeet Singh broke it in 1998.

He also represented India in the 1956 and 1964 Olympics and was bestowed the Padma Shri in 1959. —with PTI

Earlier, a number of VVIPs visited his family in Chandigarh to offer condolences.

Punjab Chief Minister Capt Amrinder Singh, Sports Minister Rana Gurmit Sodhi, Health Minister Balbir Sidhu, Sports Director DPS Kharbanda along with other officials visited Milkha Singh’s residence to pay tributes to the late legendary athlete.

Punjab Finance Minister Manpreet Singh Badal also visited the Milkha family’s residence around noon on Saturday while Union Sports Minister Kiren Rijiju and Punjab Governor and UT Administrator VPS Badnore will pay tribute to the former international sprinter around 2 pm. 

• Two cadets of Mohali institute commissioned as Flying Officers in IAFMohali, June 19, 2021:The Combined Graduation Parade (CGP) was held at the Air Force Academy, Dundigal, Hyderabad on Saturday. The parade was reviewed by the Chief of the Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria PVSM, AVSM, VM, ADC.A total of 152 cadets of various branches of the IAF, including 24 women cadets graduated as Flying Officers to join the elite cadre of the IAF. Two cadets of Maharaja Ranjit Singh Armed Forces Preparatory Institute, Mohali, were commissioned in the rank of Flying Officer and awarded their flying wings by the Chief of Air Staff.Cdt Sehaj Sharma has been commissioned into the Helicopter stream. He joined the AFPI in 2014, and on completion of his training there, joined the National Defence Academy as an Air Force cadet. His father, Dharvinder Sharma is a Senior Assistant in the Indian Red Cross Society in Amritsar. His mother, Geeta Sharma, is a house wife.Cdt Preetinder Pal Singh Bath joined AFPI in 2015 and went to NDA in 2017. His father, Rajinder Singh Bath, is a lecturer and mother, Amanpreet Kaur, a teacher. They belong to Pathankot. Preetinder Pal has achieved his dream by joining the fighter stream of the IAF.Maharaja Ranjit Singh AFPI has so far sent 162 cadets to NDA and other military training academies from 2013 onwards. Of these, 85 have already become officers in the armed forces. 68 Cadets have joined the Army; 08 have gone to the Navy and 09 to the Air Force. The rest of the cadets are at different stages of their training in various military academies.Recently a new programme has been started in AFPI called Cadet Training Wing. The aim of CTW is to further enhance the number of boys from Punjab joining the armed forces. Seven schools have been identified in the state to be a part of this programme. AFPI staff will visit these schools frequently to motivate and guide the students to join the armed forces. They will also carry out mirror image of AFPI training in these schools so that students can take the benefit of AFPI training and achieve their cherished goal of joining the armed forces as officers.Currently 92 cadets of the Tenth and Eleventh AFPI courses are under training in Mohali. Due to COVID-19 all training has been in the online mode since March 2020.

Milkha’s achievements are amazing, especially for a man who didn’t even know for the first 22 years of his life that you could make a living by running & winning races

Rohit Mahajan

The seemingly indestructible Milkha Singh — strong and wiry, his gravely voice firm and unwavering, his mental faculties excellent at age 91 — falls to Covid-19.

The greatest Indian runner, reintroduced to younger generations with the movie ‘Bhaag Milkha Bhaag’, was a legend in his own lifetime. The regret of losing a medal at the 1960 Rome Olympics pained him for 61 years, and he’d often say that before he “left this world”, he wanted to see an Indian athlete take the “gold medal that fell out of my hand”.

Milkha didn’t really have the 400m Olympics gold in his hand — however, the medal was well within his reach, and he was one of the favourites to win it. But Milkha’s tale, extraordinary and brutal, inspirational and edifying, is a near-mythical superhero story that has acquired layers with time. The core, though, is crystal clear — the limitless power of the human will. Milkha often repeated an Urdu couplet to explain how he did it:

“Haath ki lakeeron
se zindagi nahin banti
Azm hamara bhi kuchh hissa hai zindagi
banane mein”

Witnessing the killing of his parents and siblings, surviving as a penniless refugee in Delhi, joining the Army and becoming a world-class athlete — Milkha did it all because of his ‘azm’, will.

Not a joke

In the 1980s, to us schoolkids, Milkha Singh was a mythical character, possibly invented for the noble purpose of raising laughter — he was the Sardarji who didn’t catch the thief because he sprinted past him; he didn’t take the bus because he travelled faster than it; he was the man who, when asked if he was relaxing, answered: “No, I’m Milkha Singh.” Before the Rajinikanth memes of paranormal achievements, we had the Milkha Singh and Dara Singh memes.

Milkha’s achievements were indeed extraordinary — he remains the only Indian track athlete to win a gold at the Commonwealth Games, where the athletics competition is markedly stiffer than at the Asian Games; his fourth-place finish at 1960 Rome is the best result for an Indian in track and field at the Olympics (PT Usha emulated him in the boycott-affected Los Angeles Olympics in 1984); his 400m national record stood for 38 long years. An aside — when this reporter called him after Paramjeet Singh broke his record in 1998, Milkha was frank in expressing his doubt over the new ‘record’ because it was set in India — he said an athlete’s top performance comes against tougher competition, i.e. abroad. Milkha had announced an award of Rs2 lakh for the athlete who broke his record, and he did give away Rs1 lakh to Paramjeet, despite the doubts.

Milkha’s achievements are amazing, especially for a man who didn’t even know for the first 22 years of his life that you could make a living by running and winning races.

Milkha ran and won races, 77 out of the 80 that he ran in his lifetime. He made a comfortable life for himself and his family, and his son Jeev Milkha Singh is one of India’s greatest golfers.

Five days before he died, his wife, Nirmal, had passed away. For the Milkha family, their remaining separated for only five days is a sign of “true love and companionship”.

Lamenting over the passing away of the great runner, a friend who was inspired by Milkha said: “Surely, we’ll meet in a better world.” But one would argue that, surely, meeting and knowing of Milkha in this one world we know of, in this one life that we know of, is enough — the lessons that his life can teach us are precious and timeless: azm, blood and sweat, acceptance of the fruits of one’s labours, living life to the fullest. Unlettered and wise, naïve and worldly, Milkha teaches us how to live life — only if one’s willing to be taught. Milkha’s chalice was bitter and sweet, as it is for most of us, but he drank it to the dregs.

Manish Tewari

In Doklam, in the June of 2017, the NDA/BJP government was more interested in a propaganda triumph rather than a substantive outcome

 Galwan clash was the most grave confrontation after the October 20 1975 ambush by the Chinese at Tulung La in which four Assam Rifles personnel lost their lives. (Representational image: PTI)

On June 15, 2020, 20 Indian soldiers were martyred in a barbaric clash with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the Galwan Valley. It was the most grave confrontation after the October 20 1975 ambush by the Chinese at Tulung La in which four Assam Rifles personnel lost their lives.

On June 20, the Prime Minister gave a rather bizarre twist to the entire tragedy when he told an all-party meeting that “neither have they intruded into our border, nor has any post been taken over by them (China)”. Then why did we lose 20 braves? Did India then intrude into Chinese territory?

Herein lies the nub of the problem qua China. The NDA/BJP government by repeatedly underplaying both the aggressiveness of Chinese intent and blatant intrusions into areas that lie within the Indian perception of what is the Line of Actual Control (LAC). This has exposed a serious chink in their armour that the Chinese have now exploited to the very hilt. That fissure is the government’s desperation to protect its narrative of muscular nationalism at any cost. It makes them both muddle and mask the truth.

The problem started way back in 2014 when Modi decided to swing with Xi Jinping in Ahmedabad deliberately playing down the Chinese transgression into Indian territory in Chumar. It is inconceivable that the PLA would embark on this adventurism on the LAC without explicit political clearance from the standing committee of the politburo especially when Xi was visiting India.

The Chinese had tried this stunt a year earlier too in Depsang plain’s area. The 19-kilometres deep incursion by an armed patrol of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into the strategically delicate Daulat Beg Oldie sector in the Aksai Chin region was noticed on April 16, 2013, and immediately interdicted by the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP). It came just weeks before Chinese premier Li Keqiang’s visit to India between May 19 and 21 and Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh’s visit to Japan later that month between May 27 and 30.

The Depsang incursion was designed to send twin messages. First, Chinese were experimenting their new found assertiveness after Xi’s triple anointment as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party  (CCP), president of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the chairperson of the Central Military Commission (CMC). Second, it was also a caution to India against expressing overt support to Japan against the background of  steadily worsening tensions between China and Japan over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands.

The Chinese were as worried then as they are today about the Quad then. The Standing Committee of the Politburo China’s top decision making forum apprehended that the US was again engaged in putting together a broader alliance in the Asia Pacific comprising India, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and Australia to contain China’s rise.

The Depsang intrusions were handled firmly but with élan by the then UPA government. It was acknowledged upfront that the Chinese had indeed come across India’s perception line. A firm message therefore was sent to Beijing that Premier Li Keqiang who was undertaking his first foreign trip would not be very welcome in Delhi if status quo ante was not restored. On May 5, 2013, the Chinese fell back to their default position on the LAC.

As B.G. Verghese pointed out in a signed column on May 28, 2013, “that the government can stand its ground and take farsighted decisions was proven by the way it handled the Chinese intrusion into the Depsang plain without getting rattled or pushed by chauvinistic clamour. At the end of the day, the Chinese blinked and pulled back. That the joint statement issued later did not mention the word ‘intrusion’ — the PM used the phrase ‘incident’ — signified a welcome restraint and desire to avoid teasing statements”.

However, a year later when Chumar happened on the cusp of Xi Jinping’s visit from September 17 to September 20, 2014, an over-sanguine Prime Minister desperate to flaunt his newfound importance in his backyard of Gujarat did not send word to Xi Jinping that he would not be very comfy in India if the Chinese did not withdraw before the visit commenced. Having recently won an election, Prime Minister Modi had the political capital to do that but he blinked. This set the tone for the future.

In Doklam, in the June of 2017, the NDA/BJP government was more interested in a propaganda triumph rather than a substantive outcome. Not only was the withdrawal sequential rather than simultaneous with India withdrawing first, but the Indian government took its eye off the ball and allowed the Chinese to occupy substantial parts of the Doklam plateau within one year of the standoff.

This was followed by the opaque summits in Wuhan in 2018 and Mamallapuram in 2019. A subservient media and a deferential strategic community did not ask the hard questions as to what really was achieved at these informal tête-à-tête’s. By that time the Chinese had sussed out the Indian leadership and had concluded that were they to launch an intrusion across a broad front along the LAC the NDA/BJP government would cover it up rather than deal with it candidly.

This is precisely what happened in April 2020. When the Chinese decided to saunter across the LAC first the government tried to palm it off to differing perceptions of the LAC.

In fact, they had already started running this narrative from December 2019 onwards. Speaking in the Lok Sabha on December 4, 2019, defence minister Rajnath Singh said, “Due to different perceptions of the LAC, sometimes incidents of incursion occur. I accept it. Sometimes the Chinese Army enters here and sometimes our people go over there.”

The government stuck to this chicanery from April to the June of 2020 as a mortified country bristling under a harsh lockdown was trying to keep body and soul together. Only after the Galwan tragedy when the body bags could not be kept under the wraps did the nation wake up to the enormity of the challenge. There again the Prime Minister unleashed the mendacities that he has perfected to an art form much to the delight of the Chinese as it endorsed their position that they have never intruded into Indian territory.

One year later this sad saga continues unchecked. After vacating significant territorial positions on the South Bank of Pangong Lake under a yet-to-be-microscopically-evaluated disengagement plan the government tries to escape the antiseptic glare of sunlight by not even allowing Parliament to have a full-fledged debate on perhaps the most portentous national security challenge that India faces today.end-of

Tags: india china border clash, galwan clash, doklam standoff, nda/bjp government, chumar, depsang intrusions, people’s liberation army (pla)