Current Events :
Vijay Mohan
Tribune News Service
Chandigarh, September 8
Following communication intercepts, the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) have sounded an alert over a person, believed to be a foreign intelligence agent, posing an a Major in the Army and calling up CAPF establishments and eliciting sensitive information.
“It is learnt that an ISI agent impersonating as an Army officer called up a control room in a Shashtra Seema Bal (SSB) establishment and has been able to obtain certain sensitive information,” a signal received by SSB units this week states. The SSB is responsible for the peace-time management of the Indo-Nepal and Indo-Bhutan borders. India and Nepal share an open border of 1,751 km, where the main challenge is to check misuse of the open border by terrorists and criminals for illegal and anti-national activities. Pakistan’s ISI has a large presence in Nepal and is known to stage operations against India from the Himalayan kingdom.
Asking all unit commanders to urgently sensitise personnel manning control rooms and telephones against sharing any information with unidentified or unauthorised persons without approval from the competent authority, the signal states that disciplinary action should be initiated against personnel involved in such security breaches.
Calling up security establishments while posing as Indian officers to elicit information has been a long-standing ploy of Pakistani operatives due to similar phonetics and accents. Last year, a stenographer posted in UP was arrested on the charge of espionage after it emerged he was passing details of correspondence between civilian and military authorities on matters such as clearance for field firing ranges, names or officers and units etc, to his handlers.
In March 2017, the MoS (Home) said in Parliament that in 2016-17, 33 persons were arrested for spying for Pakistan, highest from Rajasthan, followed by Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir.
THE 10 hours of tête-à-tête between PM Modi and Xi Jinping have been a watershed in Sino-India ties that have oscillated between polite indifference and barely-concealed animus since the thaw exactly three decades back. Since then, Modi has also jetted to Russia for a similar but shorter conversation with Vladimir Putin, but it was the overflowing Sino-India bucket list that needed greater attention. New Delhi has taken care not to be seen as cosseting the Dalai Lama or vigorously endorsing the US position on the South China Sea while Beijing has reciprocated with promises of greater market access to Indian goods and services. And now an Indian Army delegation will cross over to China to carry forward the Wuhan spirit that, among other postulates, promised a less fractious border. The need to lower political temperatures suits both regimes. Xi welcomed a respite from Indian activism with the US in the South China Sea after Trump initiated a trade war while the North Korean situation remains fluid. With one-third of its total trade deficit accounted for by China alone, India realises that the recent offer of market access is of symbolic value when viewed against complete Chinese incalcitrance since this problem ballooned. The ties are now poised for a break-out moment when both need to shed long-held notions and apprehensions about each other to move to the next level of partnership.More than any other vector, a smooth trajectory of Sino-Indian military relationship is necessary to increase the domestic constituency for improved ties because in addition to the residual animus of the 1962 War, anti-China sentiment has been used to score domestic political points. For the first time after the Cultural Revolution, China too resorted to rabid anti-India outpouring during the Doklam standoff. The military bonhomie, denoting that both sides have agreed to turn the page on the recent acrimony, should set the stage for “clarification” of the border, a step that would eliminate confusion about overlapping claims on a dozen patches of the LAC leading to confrontation between patrols. India needs to harness the current thaw for visible progress on the border question.
Just a little over a year ago the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China were in a serious face-off across the trijunction of the Indian, Chinese and Bhutan borders near Doka La at the Doklam Plateau which lies in Bhutan. The 72-day stand-off involved induction of additional PLA troops and the advancement of India’s Siliguri-based 33 Corps’ operational alert by about eight weeks. This alert involved a large scale mobilisation of troops to positions of operational deployment. The latter saw a clear indication on the part of India not to be coerced by a virulent propaganda blitz by China to psychologically force an Indian pull back from Doklam, where the illegal Chinese road construction activity had been stopped by the Indian Army.
From a military strategic angle there were two prime issues here. First, the road under construction at Doklam would have given the PLA access to the proximity of the Indian post of Doka La, enabling the PLA to build up strength and logistics to target that post right at the trijunction which too is disputed by China. Second, although the trijunction lies squeezed at the southern tip of the Chumbi Valley between Bhutan and the Indian territory of the state of Sikkim, it is only a crow flight distance of 40-50 km to the south, to the narrow Chicken’s Neck or Siliguri Corridor which connects West Bengal to the Northeast.
Developing military operations through the Chumbi Valley by the Chinese was operationally imprudent due to the squeeze effect from east and west and would have been unlikely. However, in military strategy, it is not necessarily the actual launch of operations but a demonstrated intent to do so which ties down troops, in this case Indian troops. The risk could not be taken. In my assessment, a year ago, I had highlighted that the Chinese had chosen to play a military psychological game with no terminal aim, at a point on the Sino-Indian border where their ability to be in control of the situation would always be suspect. Yet the psychological message would be strong.
For long, China had focused on intimidation in Ladakh and in Arunachal Pradesh. The India-Bhutan-China trijunction had its own connotations and the threat to the Siliguri Corridor would create some amount of panic in New Delhi. However, it’s a different issue that there was little panic. The Chinese intent was well read by India and appropriate measures were taken which led to the stand down. The Indian media adopted a mature approach in response to the Chinese media’s caustic efforts to force a premature Indian pull back.
A year ago I had also assessed that repeated Chinese intimidatory attempts were never aimed at physical occupation of disputed territory nor dispute resolution. Those were designed to force India to focus its threat perception on the northern Himalayan borders and continue to give priority to its land forces. This is an issue which needs to be understood in context; the context is China’s strategic vulnerability which lies in the oceans. The reason for this is its trade and energy, both dependent on the long sea lines of communication (SLsOC) stretching through the Western Pacific and the entire stretch of the Indian Ocean. On these maritime highways has depended China’s phenomenal growth rate. The growth process has to continue albeit even at the current much lower rate because China’s realisation of its dream lies in extending the fruits of growth to its hinterland by continuing its low-cost manufacturing revolution. If India develops its navy to the required levels on the basis of correct security perceptions, China will have much to worry about. Although it is impeding freedom of navigation in the South China Sea (SCS) through construction of artificial islands and laying claim to exclusive economic zones on basis of new island territories, its strategic interest is enforced by coercing freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean.
The termination of the Doklam stand off has been classified as an act of maturity on the part of both India and China in keeping with their mutual interests. The turn of events since then have further reinforced the mutual perception that border tension would only have a retrograde effect on the larger intent of economic cooperation between the two highly populated nations which was the priority in their larger strategic interests too. The international strategic environment was also altering course and a reset in the world order was being sought without any clear direction, except that hardened groupings were being perceived as intimidatory. The Indian diplomatic establishment was quick to correctly realise this, thus setting forth a subsidiary reset in the region too. Prime Minister Modi’s foreign policy initiatives took him to three important destinations — Wuhan, Sochi and Qingdao — which were a reflection of promoting Indian strategic interests post Doklam.
Attending the Indian Ocean Conference 2018 at Hanoi, Vietnam, from where I am writing this analysis, it is amply clear that China continues to play to its Indian Ocean interests. There have been interventions by Chinese delegates in line with the age-old argument that the Indian Ocean is not owned by India, that it should be renamed and that India must not object to the presence of other states whose interests clearly lie within its waters and its ports and island territories. This is fully in line with the broad Chinese strategy which focuses on forcing India on the defensive with regard to its interests in the Indian Ocean region. Establishing naval facilities at the string of ports and harbours that it has acquired access to is its way of securing the SLsOC. With that endeavour, China will continue its strategy of psychological helming in of India along the Himalayan belt so that Indian security perceptions remain rooted there. However, Doklam clearly established that any overstepping through this strategy would be resisted by India.
With lessons learnt from Doklam, China will seize every opportunity to re-emphasise its 2003 strategy of Three Warfares — media, cyber and legal; all of them contributing to the larger psychological game towards coercing the minds of the Indian leadership. Thus far, the leadership has done well to understand it. The Chinese strategy will be dynamic and calibrated to which Indian response will have to remain nimble, fleet footed and demonstrative of resolve. Calibrated intimidation is going to be order of the day despite the regional reset.
he author commanded the 15 Corps in J&K and is now the Chancellor, Central University of Kashmir. Views expressed are personal.
THE Law Commission’s consultations with political parties on the feasibility of holding simultaneous Lok Sabha and state elections made for some unusual allies. The BJP, the principle proponent of the idea, has been backed by the Samajwadi Party and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti — the former its principal rival in UP while the latter subscribes to an ambiguous position. The Trinamool Congress and the Left, who do not see eye to eye in West Bengal, are on the same page in opposing the concept. But when push comes to shove, the SP and TRS will turn into rivals, if only to ensure the BJP does not appropriate and profit from the arguments of lower poll expenditure and better governance.But the Law Commission’s draft working paper on the subject outlines several difficulties that are far greater than the current political contest for public perception. At least a dozen laws need to be amended including changes to the basic structure of the Constitution that may well be a bridge too far because of the Supreme Court’s Kesavananda Bharati judgment. As proposed by the Parliamentary Standing Committee, this goal is possible in two phases: coinciding elections of half the states to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the rest with the 2024 edition.The immediate impact of this two-phase approach will be deferring elections to Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan Assemblies and clubbing them with the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. This strategy suits the Modi government because any erosion in the BJP’s support base here — as looks likely in Rajasthan and is a possibility in the other two — could put wind in the sails of the opposition for the 2019 polls. The opposition is unlikely to pass up the chance to turn these elections into a semi-final as well as try out mini gathbandhans. This is a better strategy than risk standing up to a Modi juggernaut in 2019. Federal institutions — the Election Commission and the Law Commission — may go through the motions, but it is doubtful if other parties will permit tactical advantage to the BJP for next to nothing in return.
Islamabad, September 4
Dr Arif Alvi, one of the founding members of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, was elected as the new President of Pakistan on Tuesday, according to media reports.
Alvi defeated Pakistan Peoples Party candidate Aitzaz Ahsan and the Pakistan Muslim League-N nominee Maulana Fazl ur Rehman in a three-way contest to become the 13th president. Of the 430 votes cast in the National Assembly and Senate, Alvi received 212 votes, Rehman bagged 131 and Ahsan garnered 81; six votes were rejected, DawnNews reported, citing unofficial results.
Alvi secured 45 of the 60 votes cast by the Balochistan’s newly elected lawmakers, it said.
In the PPP-dominated Sindh Assembly, Ahsan got 100 votes, while Alvi bagged 56. Just a solitary vote was cast in the favour of Rehman.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly, Alvi received 78 of the total 109 votes, while Rehman and Ahsan got 26 and five votes respectively.
In Pakistan, the President is considered as a symbol of the federation and head of the state and exercises all powers on the recommendations of the prime minister.
Outgoing President Mamnoon Hussain’s tenure ends on September 8.
A dentist by profession, 69-year-old Alvi is one of the founding members of PTI. He served as the party’s secretary general from 2006 to 2013.
He won the National Assembly elections from NA-247 (Karachi) during the July 25 polls. He was also elected member of the National Assembly in the 2013 general election. – PTI
The Army Wives’ Welfare Organisation, Northern Command, celebrated its 52nd anniversary at Udhampur on Thursday. A function at the Udhampur military station was organised on the occasion. The celebrations were also concurrently held at other family stations in the command, Srinagar-based defence spokesman said. Theme of the celebration was ‘empowerment of differently abled’. A documentary on the empowerment of the differently abled was also screened. TNS
Jammu, July 4
The Army rescued stranded passengers and vehicles on the Mughal Road near Behramgala in Poonch district on Tuesday night. It also provided medical aid to the injured and blankets and food to the stranded persons.Giving details, defence PRO, Jammu, Lt Col Devender Anand said that around 10 pm on Tuesday a massive landslide occurred on the Mughal Road. “Around 50 vehicles and a large number of passengers were stranded on the stretch. A desperate call for help was received by the Army, which immediately swung into action and reached the landslide area and rescued the passengers,” he said. The rescue operation was assisted by the J&K traffic police and Border Roads Organisation personnel from Surankote. The operation lasted till the wee hours on Wednesday and all passengers were safely evacuated. — T
Tribune News Service
Chandigarh, August 18As rival attacks mount over his minister Navjot Singh Sidhu’s visit to Pakistan, Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh finally broke his silence on Sunday.Answering questions on the row sparked by Punjab Local Bodies, Tourism and Cultural Affairs Minister Sidhu’s presence at Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s swearing in, Singh said the cricketer-politician went in his “personal capacity”. “As far as attending the swearing-in ceremony is concerned, he went there in his personal capacity, so it has nothing to do with us. About him being seated next to the PoK President, maybe he (Sidhu) didn’t know who he was,” Singh said on the sidelines of a photo exhibition here.Singh however was quick to call Sidhu’s act of hugging Pakistan’s army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa “avoidable”.“But as far as hugging the Pakistan Army Chief is concerned, I’m not in its favour. It was wrong of him to have shown affection towards the Pakistan Army Chief.”The Punjab chief minister’s statements comes at a time when rival parties such as the BJP have excoriated Sidhu’s conduct in Pakistan, calling it a “betrayal of India”.
Sidhu reacts
Sidhu defended his actions on Sunday saying he had little say in what passed at the ceremony.Speaking to the press, Sidhu said he was asked to sit next President of Pakistan-Occupied-Kashmir (PoK) Masood Khan. “If you’re invited as a guest of honour somewhere, you sit wherever you are asked to. I was sitting somewhere else but they asked me to sit there,” Sidhu said.Justifying the hug, he said: “If someone comes to me and says that we belong to the same culture and we’ll open Kartarpur border on Guru Nanak Dev’s 550th Prakash Parv, what else could I have done?”Sidhu’s Pakistan visit to his cricketing contemporary Imran Khan’s swearing in ceremony kicked up a massive storm back home—first because he accepted the invitation, and then because he sat next to Masood Khan and hugged Bajwa. With agencies
