Tribune News Service

Pathankot, November 10

An Army man, deployed at the air base here, reportedly committed suicide by shooting himself with his licensed revolver in the wee hours of today.The deceased has been identified as Tej Singh Hooda (30) from Rohtak (Haryana). He was set to be relieved from night shift when he shot himself.Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) Vivek Sheel Soni said Hooda had strained relations with his wife.“He returned from his home town recently. He is survived by his wife and two daughters. We have informed his parents and are waiting for them to arrive,” he said.A case has been registered at Sadar police station here under Section 174 of the CrPC.

File photo

Washington, October 28

The US wants to deepen military relationship and expand bilateral trade with New Delhi which will ease the sale of the F-16 and F-18 jets to India and will also help create a defence technology partnership, a top American diplomat has said.

“This is a dynamic relationship with really” hasn’t “begun to see the potential yet,” Acting Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs and Acting Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Alice G Wells, told reporters here.

Wells accompanied Tillerson on his just concluded trip to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.

“This was an extremely friendly, very wide-ranging dialogue on how we can partner together on the strategic relationship that we think is going to define the rest of the 21st century,” Wells said.

While there was a bilateral component to the visit, but they talked about how the two countries with shared values – a respect for democracy, transparency, freedom of navigation, for economic development – can inculcate these values in the broader Indo-Pacific region, working with important partners like Japan and Australia.

“Tillerson’s visit to Gandhi Smriti was very moving, and again, really was a touchstone for what unites – that this relationship is very much one built on values,” she said adding that the Secretary of State laid out a lot of ambitions for the relationship.

“We want to build on the June visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the President, and just say, How do we take this relationship to the next level?,” she said.

“Obviously, we’d like to deepen the military-to-military cooperation that has moved very quickly; over the last decade we’ve gone from zero in defence sales to 15 billion in defence sales,” Wells said.

“There are important defence agreements that the two countries can move forward on that will make it easier for the US to share classified data and that will facilitate sales like the F-16 or the F-18 and will help create a defence technology partnership, which is what India is seeking, but which will also create jobs for Americans at home,” she said.

“We’d like to expand the bilateral trade and investment dimension of the relationship. We have about US$ 115 billion in trade, USD 40 billion in bilateral investment,” she said noting that this week they have two important meetings going on, the Trade Policy Forum and the Commercial Dialogue.

US sees this as a two-way street. In November Mahindra is opening an auto plant in Michigan.

“We’ve seen purchases of Boeing aircraft, all of which produce, again, thousands of jobs for American citizens,” Wells said.

Later in November the Global Entrepreneurship Summit to be attended by Ivanka Trump, which is going to bring together 1,300 entrepreneurs and investors, really demonstrate the entrepreneurial spirit of the relationship.

“During his India visit, Tillerson focused on how they can promote regional stability. In the South Asia strategy, we’ve given an important role to India on helping to stabilise Afghanistan economically and to build its human resource capacity,” Wells said.

“Since 2001, India has invested US$ 2 billion in Afghanistan. They’ve pledged another US$ 1 billion by 2020.

India has projects in 31 provinces and all of these projects have been very well received. They’re constructive, and I think it’s demonstrated that India is an important and valuable partner,” she said.

“At the same time, of course, we’ve made it clear to everyone that we would never tolerate anyone’s soil being used against the other,” she added.

Finally, on the fight against terrorism, building on the joint designation we did of Harakat ul-Mujahidin during Prime Minister Modi’s visit, we’re looking forward to working with the the Indians on identifying additional designations that we should pursue together,” Wells said. PTI

The army chief’s decision to deploy soldiers to build railway over-bridges and clean up garbage reflects a desire to please his political masters, even if at the cost of the men he commands.

The Indian armed forces have a rich history going back more than a century, at least in the case of army. They are also a very closed society. Within the organisation, there is little opportunity, incentive or encouragement to question or oppose things. From outside, the holy cow status of the armed forces makes it difficult to question what is happening inside. This situation is a ready recipe for disaster. Moreover, this institution is so critical to India that even a minor improvement in it will pay back manifold to the society and country. After 70 years of Indianisation, it is time to examine some aspects with candor.

Public image of senior officers of the armed forces

While the image of the armed forces remains high, that of its senior officers has hit rock bottom in the eyes of the public as well as its own veterans. Ironically, the veterans have turned out to be the biggest critics. This is most pronounced in the case of the army. Never before has a Chief of Army Staff (COAS) been a butt of so many jokes as now. For the previous chief, derogatory remarks were often passed on him being the only non-PSC (not Passed Staff College) in the line of chiefs. This was seen as a case of intellectual deficiency. If an officer repeatedly did not pass a professional examination on a level field with his contemporaries, he was surely not fit for holding the top job, the veterans claimed. For the present COAS, General Bipin Rawat, however, the comments are different. They are mostly about his unusual desire to please the political masters, even if at the cost of the men he commands. Several recent decisions by him have riled up veterans like never before. Some of them are the honouring of Major Leetul Gogoi, who tied a Kashmiri man to his jeep as a human shield, ordering troops to clean up the garbage of others, ordering the army engineers to make foot over-bridges (FOBs) for the railways in Mumbai and not objecting to the Delhi police manhandling elderly veterans and veer naris while evicting them from Jantar Mantar recently. WhatsApp groups of batchmates of veterans are using colourful adjectives for Gen Rawat that cannot be published. This castigation is not restricted to the COAS. Very strong comments have also been passed for the three chiefs collectively. Sample one here – ‘The Service Chiefs are dancing girls pirouetting to the tune of the babus’. This is not restricted only to the private WhatsApp groups of veterans but can also be seen in comments of veteran readers in the open media.

This is unprecedented. Never before in India and probably nowhere in the world have such comments been passed about the service chiefs. There is an unusual bitterness all over and veterans seem willing to air it rather openly. This does not augur well for the forces. Initially, the image of COAS just dipped a little. In the incident of Maj Gogoi using a human shield, only a handful of veterans wrote against it. When Gen Rawat ordered his army to clean up garbage, the level of criticism rose but still there were some who were ready to accept it for the larger good of cleanliness. However, ordering the army to construct FOBs for the railways has broken the dam.

The facts of the case are that several lives were lost due to a stampede on a narrow railways FOB due to heavy rains and mismanagement of traffic. There was no failure of the bridge or other infrastructure. All this happened in the megacity of Mumbai, not in some remote area. In response to this, the COAS has ordered three bridges to be made for the railways in Mumbai, not just one. This can not be explained except as an attempt to please the political masters. Even the railway unions and retired officers are against it. A.P. Mishra, former member of the Railway Board (Engineering) has said, ‘Railway workshops are much better equipped than army workshops. And, the railways engineering cadre is known to act fast in emergencies’. This observation is entirely true. The expertise of army combat engineers is to make a temporary bridge rapidly so that the advancing columns retain the required mobility even in enemy terrain, not to make permanent bridges for pedestrian traffic. Many in the railways have called it a ‘demoralising decision’ and a ‘knee-jerk reaction by the political leadership under popular pressure’, to which the army has unnecessarily become a part.

The veterans have trained their guns not only on the chief but on all generals and equivalent rank officers in the other two services. They are all portrayed and caricatured as working for their own career advancement at the expense of those they command. Just as IAS officers of state cadres are now known to be arrayed into sub cadres for different political groups for favours, general officers too are seen to be grouping themselves around politicians and IAS officers for improving their chances of becoming army commanders and/or COAS. The allegation of a Faustian bargain is also on the general officers of the army.

Veterans, particularly those of ranks lower than colonel, jeer at general officers fighting so hard for issues of ‘equivalence’, i.e., equivalence between army ranks and civilian posts. They claim that this is purely for benefit of the general officers who regularly rub shoulders with the IAS babus in South Block, Delhi. To an officer in the unit (colonel rank and below), how does it matter who is equivalent to whom? For the PBORs (persons below officer rank), it simply does not matter. For issues relating to pay grade fixation, it does matter. However, in those cases, the top brass muddles up things by repeatedly claiming that it is not about money, but izzat (honour). The One Rank One Pension (OROP) proposal is definitely about money, not izzat. There is nothing wrong in asking for more money. By always ending the discussion of OROP with ‘izzat of the soldier’ and such other terms, rather than money in the hand, they always weaken the case. In case of NFU (non functional upgradation), it is entirely about more money and nothing about izzat. Izzat is something to be looked into while ordering troops to clean up garbage thrown around by others, not in discussions of OROP and NFU.

On the importance of the relationship between the active army and the veterans, I quote George Washington: ‘The willingness with which our young people are likely to serve in any war, no matter how justified, shall be directly proportional to how they perceive the veterans of earlier wars were treated and appreciated by their nation’. India will disregard the opinion of its veterans at its grave peril.

Does it harm the armed forces to discuss these things in public? Is it even fair? Well, if we can openly discuss the prime minister of the country, why not the service chiefs? One has to see what does more good to the army – brushing all concerns and grievances under the carpet or airing them so as to limit the damage.

Privatisation of forces

The other big anomaly worthy of discussion is that, on the one hand, the Indian army is going in for privatisation of certain services, and at the same time is using its combatant troops for jobs that are best done by private companies. Services presently being provided by AEC (Army Education Corps), APS (Army postal services) and some of EME (Electrical Mechanical Engineers – some station workshops in country), some animal transport units, some units of Ordnance and Military Farms are sought to be shut down. This is seen as the ‘creeping in’ of private sector in purely military domains because obviously, the load will be taken up by private firms. Alongside, we see the strange phenomenon of using highly specialised combat troops to make bridges and clean up garbage.

While the present plans of correcting the teeth to tail ratio will not degrade the army’s capability noticeably, this trend must be challenged. This is particularly so in view of India’s growing proximity to the US. The US army relies heavily on military contractors. So much so that it is openly said that wars initiated by America are fought largely for the benefit of private companies in USA. In his book, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization, Thomas Friedman reminds us that “the hidden hand of the market will never work without a hidden fist – and the hidden fist that keeps the world safe for Silicon Valley’s technologies to flourish is called the US Army, Air force, Navy and the Marine corps.” Now that the hidden could also include Indian forces too, let us at least debate the trend. This becomes even more alarming in view of India signing the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) with the US, which could bring US civilian contractors to the shores of India’s naval bases. No doubt they will be fully supported in this by Indian companies like the Adanis and Ambanis, who are widely rumored to be having the support of the government irrespective of which political party is in power.

Has the Indian public given its consent for such a change in the use of its armed forces? Will a combat army so remodeled and trained be able to take up the strain of a prolonged war on two and a half fronts? Will the civilian contractors that will so happily take up the work of the forces being downsized now, provide the same services in heavy combat conditions too?

It is true that many of these changes are as per recommendations of the Shekatkar Committee, but that is only half the truth. The committee made 188 recommendations, of which the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has sent only 99 to the armed forces for implementation. Are the others being shelved? It’ll be interesting to note what some of the others are – performance audit of non combat organisations directly under MoD viz defence estates, defence accounts, Directorate General of Quality Assurance (DGQA), Ordnance Factory Board and Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO)? The MoD will never touch the modernisation or even accountability of these. On hearing of the selective implementation, Lt Gen Shekatkar, retired, commented: ‘It is a welcome step but the government must implement all 188 recommendations, otherwise the purpose of this exercise will be lost’. Alas, it seems the good general did not understand the real purpose of the government in ordering this committee.

The promotion system of the armed forces

The third point for debate is the promotion system of the armed forces. Presently, all inputs for promotion are provided only by the superiors of the officer. This is indeed strange for a force that lays so much emphasis on leadership, i.e., the art of leading well. That being so, who knows the worth of the leader better than those led? They alone know the real leadership quotient of their officers. However, those who are led i.e. the troops under command, have absolutely no say in the promotion of their leaders. The senior officers know only that part of the officer what is shown to them. A correct understanding of leadership calls for taking a promotion input from subordinates, as well as peers and superiors. In the corporate world, this has long been the case under the name of 360 degree appraisals. Activate this in the armed forces and in one stroke you’ll wipe out the chances of apple polishers making it to the top. Let us not worry about how practical it will be to take inputs from so many soldiers. In today’s world of Iiformation technology, this is easily achievable.

In his book Bleeding Talent – How the US military mismanages great leaders and why it is time for a revolution, Tim Kane notes that ‘The more closely we scrutinise either the theory or practice, the more inadequate the exclusively top down assessment of performance and potential appear’. It seems that armies the world over mismanage their leaders. However, some armies have become wise to this while the Indian army has yet not.

This one change, if done, will solve all ills of the army in one stroke. Bad officers will never be able to rise to higher levels, much less the level of COAS. Those who reach higher ranks will genuinely care for the izzat of the men they command, as well as the size of their pay packet. They will not say yes to the unfair and sometimes illegal demands of the government. Troops will be employed only on tasks which is their mandate. When they are not actively engaged in combat or countering insurgency, they’ll actually train for war. If time is available even after that, they’ll rest and enjoy life with their families. Is there anything objectionable in that? This million-strong force, according to the analysts, is under tremendous stress. In fact, it is true that the army is losing more soldiers in suicides and fratricides than in action against the enemy. Most experts attribute the growing stress to deteriorating morale, poor service conditions, denial of leave at the required time, unattractive pay and promotions, early retirement ages, communication gap with superiors etc.

Different readers will have different viewpoints on these topics. However, what is unmistakable is that these issues must be discussed openly. For the holy cow to remain holy, an occasional scrubbing is necessary. The time is now.

Alok Asthana is a retired colonel of the Indian Army.

GS Aujla

WHAT would appear to be the most objectionable provocation at the International Border today was known in the mid-seventies as an acceptable indulgence on the dhussi bundh separating India and Pakistan. The heavily vegetated area, with a kutcha road all along the border in Gurdaspur, was home to a teeming brood of black partridges and wild boar.A tacit courtesy that Pakistan Rangers extended to their Indian counterparts was to allow shooting partridge and wild boar. Since pork is forbidden in Islam, they did not mind us shooting the pigs. I found in the late PD Vashisht, the then Additional Deputy Commissioner of Gurdaspur, an avid hunter. Although a Brahmin by birth, his mouth would start watering the moment he saw a partridge in the bushes. In the hunting season, the two of us — after duty hours — would proceed to the dhussi for ‘patrol’, with our 12-bore shotguns jutting out of the windscreen. We would often leave the jeep and let a bird fly to take a shot. The chances of survival of our likely prey was 50-50 as neither of us was an expert at flying shots. I was an ace rifle shot in my younger days and made a lousy shot with the shotgun. I am told a good rifle shooter scarcely becomes a good shotgun firer. Vashisht was a cerebral hunting addict and was happy with a small bag of partridges — mostly ‘sitting ducks’, as the phrase goes.The BSF officer at the border outpost would facilitate the roasting of the partridges and had a cook who was an expert at barbeque that he made out of wild boar. We had the most enjoyable time at the International Border and there was no cross-border tension.One day, when we were driving on the dhussi bundh, we saw a donkey in our territory. It was so heavily loaded that it could hardly walk. We got off our jeep and with the help of our driver and retainers searched the animal. We found five cases of ‘Solan Number One’ (a popular brand of whisky made in India) in the bags. Handing over the donkey at the outpost, we were told that Indian smugglers used to load donkeys with their favourite brand of liquor for Pakistani counterparts. We were also told that a bottle of ‘Solan’, costing Rs 35 in India, was sold for Rs 350 in Lahore on the black market. The forbidden fruit is always dearer.The unfortunate donkey had strayed back into the Indian territory, apparently having lost its way and failing to deliver it to the assigned receiver across the border. Ironically, there was no punishment for it — it was mercifully spared a torturous interrogation. A triumph for animal rights!

Even after a year of painful demonetisation, the government is struggling to smoke out black money. Contrary to its expectation, almost the entire black money stash found demonetisation an easy way to blend in the banking system and thereby earn interest. Even the attempt to curb counterfeit notes through the move failed. The other two principal promises — choking terror funding and ushering in the era of digital economy — did not exactly take-off. FM Jaitley’s assertion that demonetisation has reduced stone pelting in J&K is, at best, an oversimplification of a complex issue. Admittedly, the removal of old currencies from the system did accelerate digital payment transactions. The tempo, however, quickly went down soon after re-monetisation. Later, the GST encouraged small businessmen to dump digitation and resort to cash to escape the tax net.Demonetisation, however, did nudge people towards greater compliance. But, this would be more out of the coercive pressure of the tax inspector, which is not an easy sentiment. This fear has already robbed “household savings” of millions of families by forcing women to disclose their small reserves, and thereby, killed the Indian culture of micro-savings. Thus, demonetisation destroyed the informal financial cushion that often came in handy at times of a family crisis. Lifetime savings of Gurkha regiment retirees in Nepal became worthless. Similarly, Indian currencies kept as valued forex by millions of citizens in neighbouring Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar became worthless paper, thereby eroding trust in the Indian rupee. Imagine, if the US were to do the same with the dollar.Undoubtedly, PM Modi’s stated intent behind demonetisation had initially been well-received by the people, who patiently endured it for more than 50 days. Its socio-economic costs, however, have been enormous. Most of those who lost jobs or shut their small business units due to the currency squeeze were from extremely vulnerable background. Many people also lost their lives due to this futile experiment. Whatever be the government’s self-congratulatory sales pitch, for many Indians it has been a jolt from which they will take a long time to recover.

Tribune News Service

Srinagar October 18

The Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Bipin Rawat on Wednesday reviewed the security situation in the Kashmir valley.“The COAS was briefed by Chinar Corps commander Lt Gen JS Sandhu on the latest operations and updated on the overall security scenario along the Line of Control as well as in the hinterland,” a spokesperson of the Srinagar-based Chinar Corps said.General Rawat addressed all officers in the Badami Bagh Cantonment and complimented them on providing excellent military leadership in the most challenging circumstances.He also commended all ranks for their relentless pursuit towards achieving the objective of bringing in peace and normalcy to the Valley.The Army Chief was received by Northern Command chief Lt Gen Devraj Anbu and the Chinar Corps commander on his arrival in Srinagar today.

Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh. Tribune file

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, October 15

Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh on Sunday hailed the Congress win in the Gurdaspur Lok Sabha byelection as a “total rejection of the anti-people policies” of the BJP and its ally SAD, and said it underlines the “political annihilation” of the AAP.

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The Gurdaspur result has once again shown that the Congress was on the path of revival across the country, he said.

“The massive win for Congress candidate Sunil Jakhar shows the people’s complete denunciation of the corrupt and immoral BJP and SAD,” the Chief Minister said, adding that it also underlines the “political annihilation” of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the state.

Read: Sunil Jakhar wins Gurdaspur Lok Sabha byelection with huge margin

BJP must read writing on wall after Gurdaspur defeat: Sunil JakharAhead of key state polls, Cong’s Gurdaspur win sends big message to BJP

He said that it’s a victory for the Congress and the party’s policies and development agenda.

The Chief Minister assured the people of Gurdaspur that every single promise made by the party will be fulfilled and development works will be fast-tracked.

Amarinder Singh said he was humbled by the faith reposed in the Congress candidate, who won by a margin of over 1.90 lakh votes over his nearest rival of BJP Swaran Salaria, and thanked the voters for their overwhelming love and support.

The over 1.93 lakh margin of victory has not only more than compensated for the 1.36 lakh vote defeat of Congress candidate Pratap Singh Bajwa against BJP’s Vinod Khanna in 2014 but has surpassed even the 1.51 lakh lead by which Sukhbans Kaur Bhinder (Congress) had won in 1980, he said.

“Jakhar’s victory comes as a strong rebuttal to the persistent Akali efforts and campaign of the past six months to undermine the work being done by his government in the state,” he added.

“For AAP, this election marks the end of its political ambitions in Punjab,” Amarinder Singh said, pointing out that the dissolution of the Pathankot and Gurdaspur units of AAP a day before the declaration of the results showed that the party had conceded defeat and accepted that it had completely failed to connect with the people of the state.

Dubbing the alleged moral bankruptcy of the BJP and the total failure of the party at the Centre as the key factors behind the crushing defeat of its candidate, Amarinder said the people wanted development, which only the Congress could give them.

“The people were completely aware of the welfare initiatives taken by the Congress government since taking over the state’s reins in March this year,” he said in a statement here, adding that they had full faith in the government’s commitment to their progress.

“Both the BJP-SAD and AAP had stooped to the lowest levels in their brazen attempts to mislead the people with their false propaganda against the Congress government,” Amarinder alleged.

“It was evident that these parties failed to learn their lessons despite the fact that such cheap tactics did not succeed in voting them to power in the Assembly polls earlier this year,” he added.

Amarinder Singh said, “While the SAD went all out to deceive the people with its false statements on various issues, especially farm loan waiver, the AAP once again resorted to street politics and theatrics in a desperate bid to grab the seat”.

The fact that both the parties suffered a crushing defeat “showed that the people of Gurdaspur had the maturity to distinguish the right from the wrong and trusted the Congress to lead them out of the depths of miseries into which they had been pushed by the erstwhile SAD-BJP government”.

The Chief Minister came down heavily on the BJP and the AAP for their personal attacks on Jakhar, who they tried to project as an ‘outsider’ all through the campaign, without, however, making any dent in his clean image and sincere commitment.

“Development was the only thing the people of Gurdaspur were concerned about,” he said, and added that for a region deprived of growth for so many years, the domicile of the candidate was completely irrelevant as they only wanted someone with sincerity and dedication.

Describing Jakhar as an ideal representative to raise the voice of the people of Gurdaspur in Parliament, Amarinder assured the people that all promises made to them by the Congress MP would be fulfilled.

“The development work initiated in the region in the past six-odd months would get a major boost with Jakhar taking on the mantle of representing the region in the Lok Sabha,” he asserted.

Amarinder said the Gurdaspur result once again showed that the Congress was on the path of revival across the country.

“The party’s recent victory in several university students’ union elections and its resounding win in the Maharashtra civic polls just two days ago were clear indicators that the party’s fortunes were on the upswing and the result of the Gurdaspur bypoll further strengthened its prospects for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections,” he added. With PTI

As we move from a unipolar world (with the US as the only global power) to either a bipolar (the US and China as world powers), or a multipolar world, the chances of restoring peace in Afghanistan through a regional consensus will increase.

A handover ceremony of Blackhawk copters from the US to Afghan forces in Kandahar on Oct 7. REUTERS

In 1838, the governor-general of India Lord Auckland declared war on Afghanistan, triggering the first Anglo-Afghan War. The East India Company, in tandem with the ruler of Punjab, Maharaja Ranjit Singh, launched a two-pronged invasion of Afghanistan-through the Khyber and Bolan Passes. The objective was to unseat the Afghan ruler, Amir Dost Mohammad Khan, whom the British accused of collusion with the Russians, and replace him with Shah Shuja ul-Mulk. The invasion was executed swiftly. Except Ghazni, no Afghan city put up much of a resistance.  In August of 1839, Shah Shuja ul-Mulk was installed on the throne of Kabul, with British bayonets. The following year, the dethroned Amir Dost Mohammad Khan surrendered to the British, and was sent to India as a hostage. Initially, everything seemed to have been under control. But it was only a matter of time before the whole country would rise in rebellion. To make matters worse, the British lacked the experience and knowhow to occupy a country with complex tribal rivalries and rough terrain that didn’t generate much revenue. Things came to a head in December 1841, when the British envoy William Macaghten (or the de facto ruler of Afghanistan) was assassinated by Wazir Mohammad Akbar Khan, who led the uprising in Kabul. In the following month, an entire British army numbering 16,500 (4,500 troops and 12,000 camp followers) was destroyed in the passes and gorges between Kabul and Jalalabad. In April 1842, General Pollock, leading the Army of Retribution, forced through the Khyber Pass to relieve the British garrison at Jalalabad and recapture Kabul. To avenge the massacre of British troops, General Pollock briefly occupied and burned down parts of Kabul and Istalif, a village to the north of Kabul. However, the new governor-general of India, Lord Ellenborough, ordered the British troops to evacuate Afghanistan before the cold weather set in. The following year, Wazir Mohammad Akbar Khan received his father Amir Dost Mohammad at Ali Masjid, and escorted him up the Khyber Pass to Kabul to assume his throne as the Afghan ruler. The First Anglo-Afghan War was therefore considered the single largest military catastrophe for the British Empire in the 19th century. 

FIRST ANGLO-AFGHAN WAR PATTERN

The First Anglo-Afghan War set up a pattern that would be followed in subsequent invasions of Afghanistan. The pattern has four phases: First, swift invasion and occupation of Afghanistan without much resistance; second, resistance to foreign forces increases with the passage of time; third, the war is condemned to a stalemate; fourth, withdrawal (or retreat) of foreign troops. The events of the Second Anglo-Afghan War 1879-1880, the Soviet war 1979-1989, and the US and NATO mission in Afghanistan corroborate the statement. It is interesting that each one of these three military adventures was headed by a superpower of its time, and each one of these military adventures followed the pattern of the First Anglo-Afghan War. 16 years ago in October, the US launched its invasion of Afghanistan. With America’s Afghan war entering into the 17th year, the First Anglo-Afghan War offers stark lessons. Although there are visible differences between the two wars, the four-phased pattern in both wars remains the same.  First, the US invasion of Afghanistan was swift. Second, resistance to US military presence grew over time. Third, American officials have publicly admitted that there is a stalemate on the battlefield. Fourth, the US has largely withdrawn its troops from Afghanistan, and the remaining troops no longer operate in a combative capacity. In a face-saving effort, the US has encouraged negotiations with the Taliban. Back in 2001, things were different. When in December that year, Hamid Karzai suggested to US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that Mullah Omar wanted to retire to a local village in Kandahar in exchange for a safe exit from Kandahar City, Donald Rumsfeld rejected Hamid Karzai’s suggestion. Now it’s proving challenging to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. The US embarked on a costly war to topple the Taliban regime, but it is very likely that the same war will come to an end after the US-backed Afghan government reaches some sort of power-sharing agreement with the Taliban. Or even worse, if the US abandons Afghanistan once again (as it did after the end of the Cold War) and Afghanistan’s neighbours and major regional powers like China and Russia do not reach an agreement about the future of the country, it is very likely that the Taliban might overrun much of the country again. Then one could argue that the very war that was launched to topple the Taliban, has come to an end after power was restored to the Taliban. Everything will be back to square one. 

REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON AF FUTUREHistory suggests that Afghanistan enjoyed periods of stability when competing powers’ interests were not on a collision course in Afghanistan. The Tsarist Russia and British India agreed on a buffer state status for Afghanistan. As a result, even though Afghanistan’s foreign affairs were under British supervision, the country was generally peaceful and stable from 1880 to 1919. Later, during the two World Wars and first three decades of the Cold War, Afghanistan, unlike its immediate western and eastern neighbours, remained neutral. Afghanistan’s neutrality preserved a ‘Balance of Interest’ (BOI) between major powers. Forces of chaos and instability were unleashed when the BOI was upset as a result of a Communist coup in 1978. The Soviet Union not only did not help to restore the BOI, but totally destroyed it when it invaded Afghanistan in 1979. Peace and stability will return to Afghanistan when the BOI is restored again. However, the longer the Afghan war drags on, the more complicated will it get, and the more difficult will it be to restore that balance. Certainly the US presence will not help mitigate the crisis. The US has lost regional support for its presence in Afghanistan. It is fair to say that except India, no other country in the region wants to see US troops in Afghanistan anymore. When that’s the case, it is likely that the countries that remain opposed to US presence in Afghanistan will work (together if possible) to make life harder for the US. The total withdrawal of US troops will help tremendously with restoring the BOI in Afghanistan, providing regional players prevent a total collapse of state institutions. That being said, the good news is as we move from a unipolar world, (with the US as the only global power) to either a bipolar (the US and China as world powers), or a multipolar world, the chances of restoring the BOI through a regional consensus will increase. Peace and stability in Afghanistan will further facilitate regional connectivity, trade, and tourism between South and Central Asia, and the Middle East and East Asia. Pakistan, Iran, China, Russia, and to an extent India are in a better position than the US to work with Afghanistan to find a long-term, sustainable solution to the Afghan war. 

By arrangement with the Dawn 

Guwahati, October 1

An Assam-based retired defence personnel has claimed that the Foreigners’ Tribunal has sent him a notice asking him to prove that he was not an illegal Bangladeshi migrant, but an Indian citizen.Mohd Azmal Hoque, Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO) who retired from the service on September 30, 2016, told the media yesterday that he had received a notice placing him in the doubtful-voter category.(Follow The Tribune on Facebook; and Twitter @thetribunechd)It also charged him with having entered India in 1971 without proper documents, he said. “I have served the Army for 30 years,” Hoque said adding that he had received the notice asking him to appear before a local tribunal on October 13 with relevant documents to prove his Indian citizenship.The retired JCO said he had missed the first date of appearing before the tribunal on September 11 as he received the notice after that date. He said he would appear before the tribunal on October 13.“In 2012 also, I had received a notice saying I was a doubtful voter, but I submitted all documents in the tribunal court and it declared me an Indian citizen,” he said.He said he was not the first member of his family to have been served with such a notice. In 2012, his wife was also summoned by the tribunal to prove her citizenship.The issue was brought to the attention of the Army by a twitter post of lawyer Aman Wadud. Replying to Wadud’s tweet, Major DP Singh notified the Eastern Command that said “necessary assistance will be provided to the veteran”. — PTI

Placed in doubtful-voter category

• Mohd Azmal Hoque, Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO) who retired from the Army on September 30, 2016, has received a notice placing him in the doubtful-voter category
• The notice also charges him with having entered India in 1971 without proper documents
• In 2012 also, I had received a notice saying I was a doubtful voter, but I submitted all documents in the tribunal court and it declared me an Indian citizen, he claimed