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India likely to enter missile tech control regime during Modi’s US visit

India likely to enter missile tech control regime during Modi's US visit
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with US President Barack Obama. — Tribune file photo

Washington, June 5

India is likely to enter the missile technology control (MTCR) regime this week, a move that will boost the country’s efforts to purchase Predator drones from the US and export its high-tech missiles to friendly nations.

An announcement in this regard is anticipated as early as this week, possibly during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US at the invitation of US President Barack Obama, sources tracking the development said.

The major breakthrough comes days after India announced that it is subscribing to ‘The Hague Code of Conduct’ against Ballistic Missile Proliferation, which is considered to be complementary to the missile technology control regime (MTCR).

India, had applied for its membership last year.

But it was facing strong opposition from a few member countries of the MTCR where decisions are based on consensus.

The Obama administration has strongly backed India’s membership into MTCR and three other export control regime — Australia Group, Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Wassenaar Arrangement.

Established in April 1987, the voluntary MTCR aims to limit the spread of ballistic missiles and other unmanned delivery systems that could be used for chemical, biological, and nuclear attacks.

The MTCR regime urges its 34 members, which include most of the world’s key missile manufacturers, to restrict their exports of missiles and related technologies capable of carrying a 500-kilogram payload at least 300 kilometers or delivering any type of weapon of mass destruction.

Since 2008 India has been one of the five countries that are Unilateral Adherents to MTCR.

After MTCR’s announcement, India and the US are expected to fast track their discussion on sale of predator series of unmanned aircraft for the Indian military.

“Yes, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc is aware of India’s interest in Predator®-series Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA),” Vivek Lall, chief executive of the US and International Strategic Development of ‘General Atomics’, the largest privately-held American defence company which designs and manufactures Predator drones, said last year.

The Predator drone, which recently eliminated the Taliban leader in Afghanistan, is the preferred tool of the CIA.

Membership into MTCR is a huge boost for India’s ability to procure this capability. — PTI


South China Sea peace will bring prosperity: India

No commerce or commercial activity takes place in a highly tense (region). And I think it is in the interest of everyone, including China, to ensure that the peace remains in this region. MANOHAR PARRIKAR, defence minister

SINGAPORE: Defence minister Manohar Parrikar said on Saturday it’s in China’s economic interest to reduce tensions in the South China Sea, where Beijing is embroiled in territorial disputes with various governments.

AFPDefence minister Manohar Parrikar meets US secretary of defense Ashton Carter before the 15th International Institute for Strategic Studies Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Saturday.Parrikar told an international security conference that understanding each other’s perspectives and increasing trust between stakeholders will reduce tensions.

“It is ultimately economics,” Parrikar said. “If you have an unstable region like what we have in the Middle East, I don’t think economics and prosperity will really (be) enhanced.”

Although India is not a party to the South China Sea disputes, China is its traditional adversary. They fought a brief but bloody border war in 1962. The threeday Shangri-La Dialogue, which is being attended by defence ministers and experts from 50 countries, ends on Sunday and covers topics that also include terrorism, cybercrime and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. At the summit, the US stepped up pressure on China to rein in its actions in the sea, with top defence officials underlining Washington’s military superiority and vowing to remain the main guarantor of Asian security for decades to come. Defense secretary Ash Carter warned China against provocative behaviour in the South China Sea. Any action by China to reclaim land in the Scarborough Shoal, an outcrop in the disputed sea, would have consequences, Carter said.

Parrikar said however small or “however powerful” a country may be, “no commerce or commercial activity takes place in a highly tense (region). And I think it is in the interest of everyone, including China, to ensure that the peace remains in this region.”

Japanese defence minister Gen Nakatani emphasised peace will lead to prosperity, saying it was “getting increasingly important for all nations in the region to establish the order based on the rule of the law”.


Army fireman cremated with state honours

PANIPAT, JUNE 3

Residents of Nangal Kheri village bid adieu to Amit Punia, who died dousing fire which engulfed the Ammunition Depot of the Army at Pulgaon inMaharshtra four days ago. The Army fireman was cremated with full state honours in his village this evening.Punia’s body was brought to his native village from Maharashtra in the evening.ADC Rajiv Mehta conveyed condolences on behalf of the district administration. Army officials also saluted the brave man. Amit, a bachelor, was the youngest son of Satbir Singh Punia of Bichpadi village in Sonepat who shifted to Nangal Kheri 30 years ago.He was injured in the operation to control the fire in the Ammunition Depot. He succumbed to the injuries on June 2. Mahipal Dhanda, MLA; Brig Rajiv Chopra, Major Gyanesh, Sewah sarpanch Khushdil and hundreds of villagers attended the cremation. — TNS


Massive ammunition depot fire in Pulgaon kills 20 Army personnel, 90 others injured

 

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Here are the latest developments:

 Two officers and 18 Defence Security Corp (DSC) jawans were injured in the blaze, some of them critically, an Army officer said.
  1. “The main fire at one of the sheds has been extinguished. The situation is being stabilised. Secondary fire and explosions cannot be ruled out now,” the Army officer added.
  2. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar to visit Maharashtra’s Pulgaon to take stock of situation. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar will visit Pulgaon later today.
  3. Modi on Tuesday expressed grief over the deaths caused by a fire at Central Ammunition Depot in Wardha in Maharashtra. “My thoughts are with the bereaved families. I pray that those who are injured recover quickly,” Modi tweeted. “Have asked Manohar Parrikar to take stock of the situation,” he said.
  4. Congress president Sonia Gandhi has expressed shock and deep anguish at the reported death of jawans and officers in the fire at Central Ammunition Depot near Wardha.
  5. Following the mishap, Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said in a tweet: “News of fire at Central Ammunition Depot, Pulgaon is very unfortunate and disturbing. Spoke to Wardha collector & took stock of the situation.”
  6. The fire at the ammunition dump is reported to have spread after secondary explosions.
  7. Three nearby villages have been evacuated. People from other villages are also being taken to a safe distance.
  8. The casualty figure is expected to rise since several others have been injured critically in the accident.
  9. Explosions could still be heard, almost eight hours after the fire broke out around 2 am today. Water to extinguish fire is being transported from the tankers of nearby villages.
  10. Army says firefighters have controlled the massive blaze, but smaller fires and repeated explosions remain a concern.
  11. One shed reportedly caught fire after the initial explosion. Army is not ruling out sabotage behind the tragedy.
  12. The central ammunition depot at Pulgaon, 110 km from Nagpur, is one India’s biggest ammunition depots.

Massive ammunition depot fire in Maharashtra kill 20 Army personnel, 90 others injured::VEDIO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuuLl4PcHyU

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Jawan Gurung cremated with state honours

Jawan Gurung cremated with state honours
Jawan Mahesh Gurung’s body being taken for cremation in Dehradun. Tribune photo: Vinod Pundir

Tribune News Service

Dehradun, May 25

The brave son of Uttarakhand, who died fighting infiltrators in Chandel district of Manipur on May 22, was cremated with full military honours in Haridwar today. Public representatives and top brass of the Army paid floral tribute to martyr Havaldar Mahesh Gurung before he was consigned to flames.A pall of gloom descended on the city when the body of Gurung was brought to his residence, Daudwala, Dehradun. Relatives and neighbours consoled the bereaved family members. Locals and neighbours waited for hours to pay tributes to the martyr, whose body was draped in the Tricolour. Gurung’s father, mother, wife and other relatives were inconsolable during the cremation ceremony.Amid chanting of slogans like “Gurung Amar Rahe”, and “Bharat Mata Ki Jai”, Gurung’s body was taken to the Sati Ghat in Haridwar. Ayush, the 13-year-old son of Gurung, performed the last rites. Despite Ayush was inconsolable, he decided to follow the footprints of his father. Haridwar MP Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank, Cabinet Minister Dinesh Agarwal and Mussoorie MLA Ganesh Joshi were present at the cremation ground.


Indian Army mountaineers successfully summit Mount Everest

The Indian Army climbers were amongst the initial lot of mountaineers to successfully climb Everest after a hiatus of two years as the peak was closed due to the devastation caused by the earthquake in Nepal last year

mount Everest, Indian army, Indian army mount everest, everest, mountaineers everest, India newsThe 30 member Indian Army’s Everest Massif Expedition 2016 was flagged off by Lieutenant General MMS Rai, Vice Chief of the Army Staff on March 30.

Indian Army mountaineers led by Lieutenant Colonel Ranveer Jamwal and a team of six army mountaineers successfully summitted Mount Everest (8848M) at dawn on May 19.

Concurrently, the Lhotse Summit Team under Major Nooruddin Ahmed is attempting to summit Mount Lhotse (fourth highest peak in the world at 8501M).

The Indian Army climbers were amongst the initial lot of mountaineers to successfully climb Everest after a hiatus of two years as the peak was closed due to the devastation caused by the earthquake in Nepal last yearThe 30 member Indian Army’s Everest Massif Expedition 2016 was flagged off by Lieutenant General MMS Rai, Vice Chief of the Army Staff on March 30. Five members of the team will also be participating in the tough and intensive ‘Tenzing Hillary Everest Marathon’ on May 29, considered to be one of the toughest trail marathons in the world. (ANI) –


Why Pakistan Is Objecting To India’s Geospatial Information Regulation Bill::LT GEN SYED ATA HASNAIN, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM, VSM (RETD)

SNAPSHOT

Pakistan is objecting to the Geospatial Information Regulation Bill, which will render illegal for anyone in India and any Indian abroad to misrepresent India’s territory.

Pakistan perceives Jammu & Kashmir as disputed and therefore wants that international maps should not represent the entire territory of J&K as a part of India.

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This is an off-beat issue which is not easy to discern in depth, in terms of its value towards security and geopolitics. As a background it may be sufficient to know that modern technology affords the viewing of the earth in all its minutest detail from various ‘eyes in the skies’, and representing the views in different profiles. It is a revolution in the world of cartography (the science and practice of drawing maps), providing not only accuracy but also information of the existence of habitation, terrain detail and other artificial man made assets.

All the latter have intelligence value in strategic terms because before such technology was developed and high quality cameras came into being, obtaining information related to terrain and assets was from ground levels through physical viewing with the naked eye and recording observations; all this with sometimes clandestine entry into territory not under your own control.

Aerial photography was the interim phase but high speed cameras had to match the speed of aircraft. The advent of satellite surveillance and photography along with a revolution in digital photography has transformed all this. Nations can acquire real time information from their various assets in the skies and outer space and use it for different purposes.

With the rise of radical, transnational terrorism and the continuous technological development in the world of imagery and navigational aids, terror organizations wishing to study their targets and objectives have information they need, right out of the World Wide Web. The Web carries cartographic and navigation aids besides accurate information which can be exploited for planning of a terrorist operation. Mumbai’s 26/11 and the Pathankot terror attack were both aided by this technology.

Geospatial Information means imagery or data acquired from space and aerial platforms such as satellites, aircraft, airships, balloons, unmanned aerial vehicles, including value addition or graphical or digital data with depiction. The Draft Geospatial Information Regulation Bill, 2016 provides exhaustive directions to prevent the misuse of the technology explained above and very stringent punishment for contravention.

The aspects we are concerned about are two. First In simple terms, any addition or creation of anything that has to do with any geospatial information – or location – within the territory of India will need the permission of the government or, in this case, a Security Vetting Authority. The draft legislation lays down – “No person shall depict, disseminate, publish or distribute any wrong or false topographic information of India including international boundaries through internet platforms or online services or in any electronic or physical form.” In other words, it is not a ban on the use of the technology but a regulation of it.

Now, what is the objection which Pakistan has? It has gone to the UN objecting to India forcing the display of maps of its territories which do not show the supposed disputed status of Jammu & Kashmir. Let me explain this with a little background.

The territory of the State of J&K, currently under occupation of three nations, has always been officially a part of the territory of India; the Instrument of Accession signed by Maharaja Hari Singh on 26 Oct 1947, clearly and legally gives India the right over the entire territory of J&K. It needs to be reminded that J&K is currently under three nation possession/occupation; Aksai Chin illegally with China, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit Baltistan (GB) illegally with Pakistan and Ladakh, Valley and Jammu with India.

Pakistan has always contested the status of J&K and terms it disputed; it follows a rationale that UN Security Council Resolution calling for Plebiscite has been disregarded by India which remains in illegal possession of the territory under its control.

India is very clear on its own stand which needs to be understood in the light of Pakistan’s objections to the current draft Indian legislation. Firstly, the Plebiscite was to have been conducted after withdrawal of forces which committed aggression on the territory of J&K.

Since the Instrument of Accession was signed on 26 Oct 1947 and Indian troops landed thereafter on 27 Oct 1947 they committed no aggression on their ‘own territory’; hence it is Pakistan which has to withdraw its troops. Secondly, the status of the J&K issue has been altered with China’s occupation of Aksai Chin and hence the UNSC Resolution is void. Thirdly, that Pakistan has attempted three times to change the status by use of force which again makes the UN process void. Fourthly, it is the Shimla Agreement of 1972 which has overridden the UNSC Resolution with bilateralism as the key. Fifthly, with Pakistan launching a proxy war against India in 1989, which is lasting to the day, India declared its position on J&K with even greater clarity. On 22 Feb 1994, the two Houses of India’s Parliament passed a Joint Resolution declaring that the entire territory which formed the erstwhile kingdom of J&K under the Maharaja, belongs to India and India will strive for the return of territories not under its control.

Pakistan is objecting to the creating of a law which will render illegal for anyone in India and any Indian abroad to misrepresent India’s perception of its own territory. The issue in contention for Pakistan is that it perceives J&K as disputed and therefore wants that international maps of the region should not represent the entire territory of J&K as a part of India. It also feels that with such legislation and given India’s increasing international clout many other agencies may not wish to contest Indian claims. Facebook, for example, is learnt to have recently issued an apology for not showing the correct boundaries of J&K in its map of India.

Within India there is simply no sensitivity about incorrect representation of India’s national boundaries. I was recently witness to an event in which speakers showed Power Point slides with J&K lopped off in all directions. A foreigner too displayed such a map but on my pointing this out there were apologies for the lack of awareness.

The draft legislation is a smart piece of work on the part of those who are aware of technology and the continuous misrepresentation of our national territories. If, as a nation, we continue to project maps which show J&K and Arunachal Pradesh without our claim lines clearly as part of Indian territory we weaken our own case on moral grounds.

This legislation will force awareness and consciousness about ensuring that we are careful about it. For public information it is good to know that blind downloading of maps from the Internet makes you vulnerable to mistakes if you are not conscious of this. It will also enhance general awareness about national boundaries.

Lastly, the display of geospatial information gained by international agencies on public platforms by international players can always carry material useful for terrorists and this can relate to information on India too. This legislation will put all Indian display under scrutiny so that there is no compromise on security through our own displays.

It is yet to be fully analyzed how much will this legislation assist in curbing information flow to inimical elements. It is also likely to have an effect on commercial exploitation of navigation aids such as satellite navigation systems for automobiles and public transport companies such as Ola and Uber who use this extensively for tracking their cabs.

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Lt. Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd) is the former Corps Commander of the Srinagar based 15 Corps, and is currently associated with Vivekanand International Foundation and the Delhi Policy Group, two major strategic think tanks of Delhi

Sainiks from Kashmir have no place to live in

Arun Joshi
Sainik Colony, the yet-to-come-up enclave for ex-servicemen who are state subjects, is being seen as a challenge to the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. It has triggered rumours of facilitating non-local settlers, with the aim of outnumbering Kashmiri Muslims.

Sainiks from Kashmir have no place to live in
Protests against the proposed Sainik Colony for state subjects in Bandipora, north Kashmir. It is being seen as a ruse to alter the state’s demographic composition. Tribune Photo: Amin War

AN angry discourse in Kashmir over the proposed setting up of a “Sainik Colony”, a residential enclave, for the  ex-servicemen   of Jammu and Kashmir who are permanent residents is singeing the atmosphere at the start of the summer season. Whatever way this issue may be looked at, the core question is being deflected: Whether the  state subject ex-servicemen have a right to own a house or piece of land in the place where they were born and brought up? There is no law in the state constitution — Jammu and Kashmir has its own constitution — that bars any state subject from  having a house  or calling for a colony after retirement from the Army.  Separatists are playing an emotional card.It is part of the separatists’ agenda to project Kashmir as a land of troubles, where normalcy would remain a chimera unless  the K-issue is resolved on their terms. The deemed mainstream is faithfully obliging them to seek relevance  by reading from their script against the non-locals,  who are nowhere on the horizon in this issue. Kashmiris  get emotionally involved  with intensity when they  suspect that some wrong is being done to them even when it is not perceptible. And if the issue is taken  off  the radar, they feel that their narrative and protests have been able  to defeat the design  and claim  a victory  of sorts. Delhi, as always, is living in denial mode, overlooking the gravity of the situation. If 2010, when massive street protests and killings left Kashmir blood-soaked, is the reference year for peddlers of this “locals-versus-non-locals rhetoric”, then  difficult days are ahead. Kashmiri Muslims have a perennial sense of  victimhood — partly genuine and partly infused by the fear-instilling narrative of their leadership. Here is where the strategy of tapping  this emotive reservoir works .  The core idea is to take the populace further from the idea of India, which itself is fragmented the way it has been perceived in Kashmir  over the decades. The denial of justice in the absence of accountability and transparency for the wrongs committed in  the past have made them suspicious and contemptuous of each and every move. The proposed colony fits into this framework.An emotionally surcharged atmosphere keeps the conflict rolling. That is what the vested interests are seeking to achieve by attempting to provoke the street protests  against the colony,  which the state government has said, will not get any land. The doubters have not heeded the assurances given by Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti that “no land will be given for the colony, though the state subject ex-servicemen had sought it.” Former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah insists, “the colony is being set up  and it is  a ruse to settle non-locals.” He has accused the Chief Minister of telling lies. Mehbooba’s  retort is: “The proposal was mooted in 2012 when Omar was the Chief Minister.” The verbal duel is  continuing. This squabble is a delight for separatists who see “India conspiring against Kashmiri Muslims” in everything. There  was no need for  the mainstream to be apologetic, because the proposed colony is only for those holding  a Permanent Resident Certificate. The PRC or the state subject is a document given to those whose forefathers were born in the state and  automatically entitled to citizenship rights. That includes the right to buy immovable assets in this state.  This is hereditary. No outsider can become a state subject even if one has lived in the state for decades.   The two “mainstream” parties — the PDP and the National Conference  fear that they would get washed away once the floodgates of the reservoirs of emotions are opened into streets of Kashmir. Omar has seen that in 2010, when he was the Chief Minister. More than 120 youth were killed and he has not been able to overcome the impact of that year. Mehbooba Mufti doesn’t want a repeat.A toxic narrative of India seeking to “change the demographic composition,” is a favourite with the separatists and some of their self-appointed cheerleaders. Generating hatred against India is in the core. The “mainstream”, out of sympathy with the issue or due to the compulsion of surviving against these odds, willingly surrenders its stated positions in an attempt to be seen as part of the excessively  Kashmir-centric and religious narrative. The monster of unemployment has  driven  thousands of  Kashmiri youth to seek enrolment in the Army. Once that happens, they and their families become the targets of  militants. A number of ex-servicemen have been killed over the years.  Most of the ex-servicemen live in villages and don’t have individual security for their homes. That is why they wanted to have a residential enclave that would offer them a sense of security.  Shockingly, the yet-to-come-up colony is seen as a  challenge to the special status of  Jammu and Kashmir. It has triggered rumours of non-local settlers outnumbering Kashmiri Muslims in their own land.  Examples of Israeli settlements in Gaza and West Bank of Palestinian territories are cited to reinforce the fear-mongering discourse. Since 1990, the term “non-local” has assumed a different definition. It is evident from the mounting opposition to return of Kashmiri Pandit migrants (original natives of the Valley) and settling them in proposed safe zones. The migrants are being told repeatedly, “You are welcome (to the Valley) only if you return to your neighbhourhood (from where they were uprooted in 1989-1990 when radicalism surged in Kashmir)”. It is a sugar-coated warning on the “welcome” signboard.Muslims losing their majority is a time-tested theory which the separatists leadership applies, mostly at the onset of summer to  summon  youth to protest in streets — disrupting studies, destroying the income  of the daily earners, scaring away tourists  and injecting political instability. All these serve the vested interests and show the Indian nation in a poor light. Right-wing demagogues from the cow belt, having no idea about the sensitivities  of Kashmir, jump in. They speak in the language  that gives Kashmir a reason to resist the flamboyant “Indian-ness”. Mehbooba and others are  also unhappy. She had recently made it clear that any challenge or perceived challenge to the special status of the state, results in difficulties and peace, that is more important than anything else, is threatened.  This kind of more-patriotic-than-thou utterances causes trepidation  in Kashmir.  Such rabble-rousers help the secessionists to gain credence. Conciliation, not confrontation, works in sensitive areas. Nowhere in the proposal is there a mention of non-state subject, but the opponents  point out that there also is no mention that the colony would be exclusively for the state subject ex-servicemen.  As of now, the proposed colony seems out of question. So, where do  the ex-servicemen go? Should they shift to places outside the Valley or the state? The agenda of weeding out the state subject ex-servicemen from Kashmir would then have been accomplished. This also serves to dampen the sprits of all those who stand or intend to stand in queues to be recruited in the Army.  Unemployment will rise and that is a recipe for more trouble and the idea of India is under threat of being consumed. 

ajoshi57@gmail.com

 


Jawans rough up captain after colleague dies in ‘training’

GUWAHATI: The Army jawans of an infantry battalion deployed in Arunachal Pradesh on Sunday roughed up a captain after one of their colleagues died during a “routine training activity”, apparently upset over the jawan being asked to march despite complaining of chest pain.

Army officials in Guwahati denied there was anything even approximating “mutiny” in the unit, as some initial reports suggested.Sources said four to five jawans turned emotional after the death of the jawan following chest pain, and got agitated when they were being consoled by their battalion adjutant, the captain, leading to a scuffle. No one was injured.Defence spokesman Lt Col Suneet Newton confirmed the death during routine training. He said it occurred in the northeast region, but declined to confirm that the infantry unit was deployed in Arunachal. “This is not a case of mutiny,” he told TOI.

Top Comment

Chest pain should have been taken seriously and there are frequent reports of sportsmen dying…sudden death..he should have been checked by cardiologist with necessary basic tests..not done ?drs bafna
Official sources said the jawan complained of chest pain before a routine march on Sunday. He was checked by the unit’s medical officer and found to be fit. However, the jawan later collapsed during the march and was immediately brought to the field ambulance, where he died. “Jawans, four to five in number, got emotional and agitated at the death of a colleague. When being consoled by the adjutant, they indulged in an agitated behaviour leading to a minor scuffle. No one was injured,” said Newton.

The incident is being investigated by Army authorities as is the practice in all cases of death during training exercises, he added.


Modi has to deal firmly with China’s growing influence in Indian Ocean region

The tug-of-war between India and China over strategic dominance in Maldives has intensified the already-bitter maritime rivalry between the two countries. With trade and investment being cementing forces, the two do keep up the pretence of normal relations but there is little love lost between the two powerful neighbours.

Not for the Narendra Modi government the laid back, passive approach of the erstwhile UPA government. As on many other fronts, the Modi government is proactive and is committed to compete with the China for dominance in the Indian Ocean..

China had got a head start with the foothold they got in Gwadar port in Pakistan to watch over the sea lanes. As part of a calculated strategy, it had then worked on the Myanmar and Sri Lankan governments before shifting their attention to Maldives, another hinterland State.

India is now in the catch-up mode. The recent visit of Maldives President Abdulla Yameen was a fence-mending mission. Though India was lukewarm towards him — it was still smarting from the way Yameen treated the former deposed President Nasheed who was New Delhi’s protégé, and wary of his flirtation with China — a few baits were unmistakably held out to the Maldivian President who is now in a look-up-to-India mode. Yameen, on his part, is wary of putting all the eggs in one basket. He has drawn substantial benefits from the China connection and is now looking for gains from India. That’s clever strategising.

China is loath to India treating the Indian Ocean as its backyard while India is inherently suspicious of China’s barely disguised ambition to increase its influence over the ocean-rim states. Mercifully, both the Americans and the Australians look upon India as a bulwark against Chinese hegemony in the region.

China discounts the String of Pearls theory that the West and India subscribe to, but the hard reality is China’s geopolitical influence in the wake of greater access to ports and airfields in the region, is growing. The Chinese government insist that its burgeoning naval strategy is entirely peaceful in nature and designed solely for the protection of regional trade interests. But there is no doubt that China can at any time switch to an aggressive stance.

Symptomatic of the difficulties in India’s path, the Maldive’s China connection led Prime Minister Modi to skip the island country in March when he went on a tour of the Indian Ocean nations. That marked the lowest ebb in India-Maldives relationship when mutual suspicion was at its worst. At that point China was riding high and Maldives seemed to be in its firm grip.

The economic setback in China and the shattering of the myth of its invincibility have made Maldives and other Indian Ocean states look towards India as an option not to be ignored. It truly is a high stakes battle and there are gains and losses for both India and China.

Modi’s landmark visit to Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka in March this year was a reflection that India is not prepared to accept a lesser role for itself. He is determined to make up for lost time in asserting Indian influence in the Indian Ocean. In fact, it almost looked as if Modi was signalling that Seychelles and Mauritius were “in play” between the two rivals. As for Sri Lanka, India has gained some ground from the defeat of ‘pro-Chinese’ Rajapaksa. There is a whiff of fresh air for India in an otherwise unresponsive environment more favourable to the Chinese in the region.

The Chinese place a lot of reliance on their friendship with the Pakistanis. Not only has Pakistan allowed China to use Gwadar port, but it has also ceded land in “Azad” Kashmir to China, much to India’s chagrin. Why is the Indian Ocean such a bone of contention between China and India? The Indian Ocean is the third largest body of water, covering 20 per cent of the Earth’s surface and accounting for 73.56 million square miles. About 35.7 per cent of the world’s population inhabits this region.

Trade makes this ocean very important—in particular, the trade of oil. The littoral states of the Indian Ocean have immense wealth. Around two-thirds of the world’s oil reserves are in this area. Moreover, 35 per cent of the world’s gas reserves, 60 per cent of uranium, 40 per cent of total gold, and 80 per cent of total deposits of diamonds are found along the Indian Ocean, making its littoral strategically important.

The sea-lanes of the Indian Ocean serve as an important route for oil trade—the Gulf states produce 17,262 million barrels each day (43 per cent of the total global trade). The trade routes through the Straits of Hormuz, Malacca and Bab el-Mandeb are of immense importance. The markets and the region of Africa are a potential trade hub.

A Chinese assertion of hegemony in the Indian Ocean can affect the freedom of navigation and cripple the economies of several countries. That explains the anxiety in the US, Australia and India to protect the navigation in the ocean.

The future holds enormous challenge for India in the geopolitical context. India under the Modi dispensation will have to measure up to the challenge and take on the Chinese dragon skilfully and firmly.