Ride out the China storm

WHEN Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif called up Prime Minister Narendra Modi to commiserate on the Pathankot air base attack, it was a déjà vu moment. The same effusiveness was in full play about seven years back when the Mumbai attacks had rocked India. The then Pakistani President Asif Zardari had even offered to send the ISI chief to discuss the extent of culpability of rogue officers in the military while top Lashkar-e-Taiba commanders, including its ideologue Hafiz Saeed, were jailed and a special anti-terrorist court set for their speedy prosecution.This was unprecedented in Indo-Pak cooperation on terrorism. The offers yielded little because the Pakistani military’s strategy of using militants in Afghanistan and India at that time kept their intelligence agencies busy from exerting a similar counter-pressure.Three years after the Mumbai attacks, Pakistani public perception of its military’s prowess took a beating when US marines came and killed Osama bin Laden, and then, half of Pakistan’s maritime surveillance fleet got decimated in the Mehran air base attack that exposed the involvement of men in uniform.There was a window of opportunity in 2011 but the Zardari-controlled Pakistan People’s Party’s was unable to deliver on its promise to swiftly prosecute the Mumbai attack masterminds. Is it different now? Can Nawaz Sharif act on his promise given to Narendra Modi? Just over a week before the Foreign Secretaries of both countries are slated to meet in Islamabad, New Delhi seems to have taken the Pakistan Prime Minister on his word and added a few conditions of its own. One of them appears to be the arrest of Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar of the Kathmandu-Kandahar plane hijack notoriety who has remained unprosecuted for the crime for 16 years.The state of play in Pakistan that encouraged Nawaz Sharif to make the “assurance” looks more promising than during Zardari’s tenure as Pakistan President. Nawaz Sharif’s third-time ascension as Prime Minister is unprecedented in the annals of leadership turnover in Pakistan. This was the only occasion when a democratic government completed its mandate of five years in office and gave way to another of the same make. The consequent ebb in the political clout of the Pakistan military has led to the democratic government getting a firmer handle on the tools of governance and policy making than its earlier predecessors.But the Indian Government could be indulging in an over-optimistic reading of tea leaves in the Pakistani security apparatus when National Security Adviser Ajit Doval crafted a stern message of take it or leave it to Nawaz Sharif. In a signal via the media, Doval claims that India has handed over all evidence, including phone intercepts, mobile phone numbers of the handlers behind the Pathankot attack, along with their names and locations. All of this again sounds familiar. India had gone through exactly the same drill after the Mumbai attacks. The then civilian government in Pakistan, a couple of shades more secular than Nawaz Sharif and therefore less complicit with radical groups, tried hard to deliver. The other side strove equally hard to thwart this attempt. When all else failed, the lawyer prosecuting the seven masterminds of the Mumbai attacks was shot dead. His successor also died mysteriously. The rapid-fire conclusion by Indian media commentators detected the ISI’s hand.It is not as straightforward and uncomplicated. A large section of Pakistan society is radicalised and tends to subscribe to the methods and philosophy of the radicals. This is mainly due to the unwillingness of all governments, both military and democratically elected, to change the intensely feudal and crony dominated arrangement at the top and intermediate layers. This setup has rarely allowed the subaltern to join them in governance and policy making, leading them to view the radicals as some sort of a revolutionary force that could give them deliverance from perpetual political subjugation by the landlords-cum-industrialists from Raiwind (the Sharif clan), Larkana (the Bhutto family) and several like them who get co-opted in Central Cabinets.The era of socialist and Left activism, the main drivers for resolving this structural problem and providing a solution, is over. India has continuously accommodated the less deprived by tools such as reservations and should understand this flaw better than the Europeans and the Americans who undertook other means, including domination of resource-rich nations, to keep their citizen satiated. Neither Pakistan nor India can ever resort to this technique perfected by the West for over four centuries. It is the Pakistani elite’s incapacity to effect changes in the system that draws its youth to the aesthetics of violence and self-destruction.India’s security managers in New Delhi’s South Block could take heart from the halving of terrorist attacks in Pakistan last year as compared to the previous year. Yet the country continues to host, often against its interests, a medley of violence-addicted groups who have the ability to turn the clock back on the current spell of sociability between the two Prime Ministers.  For example, Pakistan marked the end of the year with the murder of its top anti-terrorism manager in Punjab and a blast that killed 29. Both were suspected to be the handiwork of groups operating independently of Pakistani military and intelligence agencies. Much like the Mumbai attacks, they were assisted by some former military officials who had branched out after Pervez Musharraf’s post 9/11 U-turn on using militant groups in Afghanistan. Some militant groups also began attacking their former mentors in the military after Musharraf’s ceasefire with India in 2004 had bottled up the Kashmir channel.If the bonhomie between the two establishments is for real, Doval’s conditionalities should maintain the pressure on Islamabad-Rawalpindi to keep in check India-focussed vendors of violence. But it will be unrealistic to expect a total cessation. Instead the leaderships of India and Pakistan need to turn their attention to policies that produce economic deliverance for their people. For India that would mean shorter trade routes for its merchandise exports into Central Asia and Afghanistan.For Pakistan, it should translate into access to energy and increase in the domestic investment rate to wean it from perpetual dependence on foreign aid which makes it susceptible to tutoring from the benefactors. Nawaz Sharif is best placed to deliver near-total peace with India. Not only is the international opinion ranged against military takeovers, Nawaz Sharif is a major beneficiary of the Zardari government’s annulment of a Constitution provision authorising the President to remove the Prime Minister. But India must move on multiple fronts with Pakistan. Holding it accountable only to the metric of terror will be insufficient and impractical.

Govt betrays nervousness in Pathankot bulletins

Patriotism was the emotion of the moment as our soldiers battled foreign intruders on the premises of a premium defence establishment in Pathankot over the weekend. The national mood was entirely in keeping with the developments. In hindsight, however, one can discern instances where those at the helm of steering the security operation too seemed to get carried away by the need to respond to the heightened emotions. Both the government and the media did well to give out as few operational details as possible; a lesson from Mumbai, perhaps. But the government made a few attempts to sound as if they were on top of the situation when in reality the various agencies were themselves perhaps not sure of what was happening.Because of the very nature of such operations, clarity on the exact ground situation cannot be expected till all is over. Union ministers in their tweets and senior officers of the security establishment (a few in bullet-proof jackets at a press briefing) made statements that later proved premature. All of this unnecessary confusion caused by ham-handed communication made the security forces seem inept, when that may not have been the case. The electronic media was equally caught up in the patriotic fervour, repeatedly broadcasting long clips of mourning of bereaved families of soldiers. All of this affects the national mood, which is quickly reflected in social media. And the present government is acutely sensitive to what goes on in the virtual world.The Defence Minister has referred to certain “gaps” in the security response to the attack. The government now needs to show confidence in being able to acknowledge wherever the lapses were so that appropriate remedy may be applied. The NDA government has the advantage of nationalistic credentials and the security of numbers in Parliament. That should give it the confidence to remain silent when there is nothing to be said and only give facts when it does speak. The media management of the government has been shown lacking once again. Hope the decisions it takes are not in response to the gallery.

IAF BASE ATTACKED

Army, NSG may see joint training

Vijay Mohan,Tribune News Service,Pathankot, January 6

While the rationale of employing the National Security Guard (NSG) on a military installation to deal with a terrorist attack is a topic of intense debate in the security circles, the first-ever joint operation could possibly see the armed forces and the NSG working together in the future.Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said during his visit to the Pathankot air base that he has asked the Army and the NSG to conduct regular training together. Joint training, according to an officer, translates into joint operations being undertaken further down the road.The armed forces, all branches of which have their own Special Forces to undertake extraordinary missions, function under the purview of the Ministry of Defence, while the NSG comes under the administrative control of the Ministry of Home Affairs.While the Army and to some extent the Navy’s Marine Commando Force have been undertaking anti-terrorist operations, they have never jointly engaged the same adversary. The last time the armed forces and the NSG operated simultaneously was during the terror strike in Mumbai in 2008, but they were deployed at different sites.Parrikar had claimed that the NSG was deployed at Pathankot because it was “better trained” to deal with terrorist situations, a remark that has not gone down well in the Army fraternity, considering that the Army has been involved in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorist operations for decades and its Special Forces and well trained and highly experienced in this arena.The NSG has two functional groups: the Special Action Group (SAG) and the Special Operations Group (SOG).‘Terror activities up in BJP rule’Raising these questions, ex-Home Minister and senior Congress leader Sushil Kumar Shinde alleged that terror activities escalated whenever there was a BJP government at the Centre.

Cong’s 5 posers to govt

• Why it took Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif five days to call up PM Narendra Modi and condemn the Pathankot attack?
• Why India failed to immediately summon Pakistan High Commissioner after the terror strike?
• Why India did not attempt to isolate Pakistan internationally on the issue?
• India’s anti-terror stand and policy have both been compromised with and serious lapses have occurred in Pathankot. Why even today India is not calling these terrorists Pakistanis?
• What is the connection between these Pakistani terrorists and Punjab drug cartels?

Giving the government 15 days to begin discussions with them to resolve the impasse on the issue of One Rank One Pension (OROP), ex-servicemen on Sunday announced that they would boycott the Republic Day celebrations on January 26 unless OROP is implemented in its rightful form.

“We will give the government 15 days to begin discussions and a notice period of another seven days beyond that. After that we will take the protest to the people. We will boycott the Republic Day celebrations and we will also request the ex-servicemen contingent that marches on Rajpath on January 26 to boycott the parade, Maj. Gen. Satbir Singh (retd), Chairman of Indian Ex-Servicemen Movement (IESM) said at a rally in Delhi.

Early this month, the ex-servicemen had announced that the government has agreed to appoint V.K. Singh, Minister of State for External Affairs to mediate between the government and veterans. However, Maj. Gen. Singh said that the government failed to adhere to that and demanded immediate action.

Maj. Gen. Singh said that the veterans would not vote for the BJP or its allies till OROP is implemented in its rightful form. “We voted for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections because of their assurance on OROP. But they have failed to honour it,” he told The Hindu.

Col. Anil Kaul (retd), media advisor, IESM, said that the notification issued by the government on November 7 is flawed and deviates from the accepted definition of OROP.

Veterans have listed seven points of deviation in the notification. The major issues of disagreement are the issue of pre-mature retirement (PMR) and pension equalisation. The notification stated that “those opting for PMR henceforth on their own accord will not be eligible for OROP”, which caused major concern among the serving community. On the equalisation, veterans have been demanding it annually as against five years proposed by the government in the spirit of the definition of OROP.

Simran SodhiTribune News Service,New Delhi, December 12

India and Japan today signed an agreement on Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, bringing to end years of tough negotiations between the two countries. The agreement was signed during the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to India. Another hallmark agreement signed between the two countries is building of the first bullet train network between Mumbai and Ahmedabad at a cost of about Rs 98,000 crore.The memorandum of understanding (MoU) on nuclear energy was signed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Abe. “No friend will matter more in realising India’s economic dreams than Japan. We have made enormous progress in economic cooperation as also in our regional partnership and security cooperation,” said Modi after signing the deal.Abe in return said his country’s public and private sector would act in unison to support the growth of India. It is also learnt that during the one-hour summit meeting between the two Prime Ministers, Abe said he was pleased that the two countries had an agreement and that it ‘wouldn’t have been accomplished by other Prime Ministers. No other leaders could have done it”.While the MoU on nuclear deal brings an end to the negotiations between India and Japan, the process is yet to be completed. Yasuhisa Kawamura, Press Secretary accompanying Abe, at a media briefing explained that the final document will have to “withstand the scrutiny of the Diet (parliament)” before Japan can go ahead with the implementation side of the deal. In other words, the MoU today lays the groundwork for the final agreement which will be signed after technical details have been sorted out.Kawamura also said if India was to go in for another nuclear test, “It will be quite natural for Japan to review the cooperation”. But he added Japan did not see that happening. The joint statement issued at the end of the summit states: “The two Prime Ministers welcomed the agreement reached between the two governments on the Agreement between the Government of Japan and the Government of the Republic of India for cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy and confirmed that this agreement will be signed after the technical details are finalised, including those related to the necessary internal procedures.”Another significant announcement was in the area of defence that Japan would now be a regular partner in the India-US Malabar exercises.

Key pacts signed

• Transfer of defence equipment and technology; Security measures for protection of classified military information
• Regular consultations on maritime safety and security of sea lanes of communication; Japan to be a regular partner in the India-US Malabar exercises
• Amendment of Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) to help reduce tax avoidance
• $12 bn Japanese fund for its companies to manufacture in India. Another $5 bn under Overseas Development Assistance to India
• India to extend ‘visa on arrival’ to Japanese people from March 1 next year PTI

Japan to import Maruti cars

• In a first, Japan will import cars from India. ‘Maruti (Suzuki) will manufacture here… The Japanese company will manufacture here and export it to Japan,” PM Narendra Modi said. Maruti expects to export Baleno to Japan from January 2016 with a target of 20,000 to 30,000 units a year. — PTI

ALONG THE INDIA-CHINA BORDER IN ARUNACHAL PRADESH:  “You will be out for the next five days,” the Indian Army Major said in a matter of fact tone. The group of 12 men he was addressing sat on a Mountain ridge. It had been snowing since morning. The brown rocky sliver of land was slowly turning white. “Your job will be maintain the sanctity of the Line of Actual Control, watch out for movement of Chinese troops, take note of their new locations and report back,” was his brief.

No matter how bad the weather is, long-range Foot Patrols of the Indian Army are regular along the nearly 900 km McMohan line – drawn by the then British Foreign Secretary Henry McMohan in 1914 to demarcate the border – that is now the de-facto border between Indian and China. There are several areas along the line claimed by both, often leading to face-offs and transgressions.
On mountain peaks over 14000 feet high, a literal cat and mouse game plays out every day.  “We have to ensure that the Chinese not only know we present but that we constantly watch them,” a senior military commander told NDTV.

In the past, China has claimed not only Tawang but the entire Arunachal Pradesh. Therefore, as a counter, India tries to dominate every ridge and mountain pass through foot patrols and border posts. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army instead is positioned deep inside Chinese territory.

“Our aim is to meet Chinese patrols whenever they cross what we consider our territory. This gives a clear message that we are serious about our claims,” the commander said.
On average, every foot patrol covers over at least 25 km of mountainous territory often climbing over several peaks. For the past few years, Indian soldiers are also being trained to speak Chinese dialects. “It is easier to tell them that they have crossed over to our territory,” an official said.

India and China signed the Border Defence Cooperation (BDCA) in 2013 – an agreement to reduce misunderstandings and improve communications between the two nuclear-armed states along their disputed border.  Both sides now meet regularly. “The agreement has helped us solve local issues,” Brigadier Kushwaha adds.

Back in Tezpur, the 4 Corps Headquarters – which protects Tawang and the western Arunachal Pradesh – the assessment is that as India bridges the infrastructure, military and economic gap – the Chinese will become more aggressive.

He died defending Kashmir, his own land was grabbed

LONE WINNER OF MVC AND VICTORIA CROSS, DAUGHTER REGRETS FORGOTTEN MEMORIALS

MANSA: Remembering Mansa’s naib subedar Nand Singh — lone winner of the twin bravery awards of Victoria Cross and Maha Vir Chakra — on the eve of 68 years of his martyrdom, his daughter, Amarjeet Kaur (68), regrets that the state government has forgotten his family and village.