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Even after a year of painful demonetisation, the government is struggling to smoke out black money. Contrary to its expectation, almost the entire black money stash found demonetisation an easy way to blend in the banking system and thereby earn interest. Even the attempt to curb counterfeit notes through the move failed. The other two principal promises — choking terror funding and ushering in the era of digital economy — did not exactly take-off. FM Jaitley’s assertion that demonetisation has reduced stone pelting in J&K is, at best, an oversimplification of a complex issue. Admittedly, the removal of old currencies from the system did accelerate digital payment transactions. The tempo, however, quickly went down soon after re-monetisation. Later, the GST encouraged small businessmen to dump digitation and resort to cash to escape the tax net.Demonetisation, however, did nudge people towards greater compliance. But, this would be more out of the coercive pressure of the tax inspector, which is not an easy sentiment. This fear has already robbed “household savings” of millions of families by forcing women to disclose their small reserves, and thereby, killed the Indian culture of micro-savings. Thus, demonetisation destroyed the informal financial cushion that often came in handy at times of a family crisis. Lifetime savings of Gurkha regiment retirees in Nepal became worthless. Similarly, Indian currencies kept as valued forex by millions of citizens in neighbouring Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar became worthless paper, thereby eroding trust in the Indian rupee. Imagine, if the US were to do the same with the dollar.Undoubtedly, PM Modi’s stated intent behind demonetisation had initially been well-received by the people, who patiently endured it for more than 50 days. Its socio-economic costs, however, have been enormous. Most of those who lost jobs or shut their small business units due to the currency squeeze were from extremely vulnerable background. Many people also lost their lives due to this futile experiment. Whatever be the government’s self-congratulatory sales pitch, for many Indians it has been a jolt from which they will take a long time to recover.

Tribune News Service

Srinagar October 18

The Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Bipin Rawat on Wednesday reviewed the security situation in the Kashmir valley.“The COAS was briefed by Chinar Corps commander Lt Gen JS Sandhu on the latest operations and updated on the overall security scenario along the Line of Control as well as in the hinterland,” a spokesperson of the Srinagar-based Chinar Corps said.General Rawat addressed all officers in the Badami Bagh Cantonment and complimented them on providing excellent military leadership in the most challenging circumstances.He also commended all ranks for their relentless pursuit towards achieving the objective of bringing in peace and normalcy to the Valley.The Army Chief was received by Northern Command chief Lt Gen Devraj Anbu and the Chinar Corps commander on his arrival in Srinagar today.

Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh. Tribune file

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, October 15

Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh on Sunday hailed the Congress win in the Gurdaspur Lok Sabha byelection as a “total rejection of the anti-people policies” of the BJP and its ally SAD, and said it underlines the “political annihilation” of the AAP.

(Follow The Tribune on Facebook; and Twitter @thetribunechd)

The Gurdaspur result has once again shown that the Congress was on the path of revival across the country, he said.

“The massive win for Congress candidate Sunil Jakhar shows the people’s complete denunciation of the corrupt and immoral BJP and SAD,” the Chief Minister said, adding that it also underlines the “political annihilation” of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the state.

Read: Sunil Jakhar wins Gurdaspur Lok Sabha byelection with huge margin

BJP must read writing on wall after Gurdaspur defeat: Sunil JakharAhead of key state polls, Cong’s Gurdaspur win sends big message to BJP

He said that it’s a victory for the Congress and the party’s policies and development agenda.

The Chief Minister assured the people of Gurdaspur that every single promise made by the party will be fulfilled and development works will be fast-tracked.

Amarinder Singh said he was humbled by the faith reposed in the Congress candidate, who won by a margin of over 1.90 lakh votes over his nearest rival of BJP Swaran Salaria, and thanked the voters for their overwhelming love and support.

The over 1.93 lakh margin of victory has not only more than compensated for the 1.36 lakh vote defeat of Congress candidate Pratap Singh Bajwa against BJP’s Vinod Khanna in 2014 but has surpassed even the 1.51 lakh lead by which Sukhbans Kaur Bhinder (Congress) had won in 1980, he said.

“Jakhar’s victory comes as a strong rebuttal to the persistent Akali efforts and campaign of the past six months to undermine the work being done by his government in the state,” he added.

“For AAP, this election marks the end of its political ambitions in Punjab,” Amarinder Singh said, pointing out that the dissolution of the Pathankot and Gurdaspur units of AAP a day before the declaration of the results showed that the party had conceded defeat and accepted that it had completely failed to connect with the people of the state.

Dubbing the alleged moral bankruptcy of the BJP and the total failure of the party at the Centre as the key factors behind the crushing defeat of its candidate, Amarinder said the people wanted development, which only the Congress could give them.

“The people were completely aware of the welfare initiatives taken by the Congress government since taking over the state’s reins in March this year,” he said in a statement here, adding that they had full faith in the government’s commitment to their progress.

“Both the BJP-SAD and AAP had stooped to the lowest levels in their brazen attempts to mislead the people with their false propaganda against the Congress government,” Amarinder alleged.

“It was evident that these parties failed to learn their lessons despite the fact that such cheap tactics did not succeed in voting them to power in the Assembly polls earlier this year,” he added.

Amarinder Singh said, “While the SAD went all out to deceive the people with its false statements on various issues, especially farm loan waiver, the AAP once again resorted to street politics and theatrics in a desperate bid to grab the seat”.

The fact that both the parties suffered a crushing defeat “showed that the people of Gurdaspur had the maturity to distinguish the right from the wrong and trusted the Congress to lead them out of the depths of miseries into which they had been pushed by the erstwhile SAD-BJP government”.

The Chief Minister came down heavily on the BJP and the AAP for their personal attacks on Jakhar, who they tried to project as an ‘outsider’ all through the campaign, without, however, making any dent in his clean image and sincere commitment.

“Development was the only thing the people of Gurdaspur were concerned about,” he said, and added that for a region deprived of growth for so many years, the domicile of the candidate was completely irrelevant as they only wanted someone with sincerity and dedication.

Describing Jakhar as an ideal representative to raise the voice of the people of Gurdaspur in Parliament, Amarinder assured the people that all promises made to them by the Congress MP would be fulfilled.

“The development work initiated in the region in the past six-odd months would get a major boost with Jakhar taking on the mantle of representing the region in the Lok Sabha,” he asserted.

Amarinder said the Gurdaspur result once again showed that the Congress was on the path of revival across the country.

“The party’s recent victory in several university students’ union elections and its resounding win in the Maharashtra civic polls just two days ago were clear indicators that the party’s fortunes were on the upswing and the result of the Gurdaspur bypoll further strengthened its prospects for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections,” he added. With PTI

As we move from a unipolar world (with the US as the only global power) to either a bipolar (the US and China as world powers), or a multipolar world, the chances of restoring peace in Afghanistan through a regional consensus will increase.

A handover ceremony of Blackhawk copters from the US to Afghan forces in Kandahar on Oct 7. REUTERS

In 1838, the governor-general of India Lord Auckland declared war on Afghanistan, triggering the first Anglo-Afghan War. The East India Company, in tandem with the ruler of Punjab, Maharaja Ranjit Singh, launched a two-pronged invasion of Afghanistan-through the Khyber and Bolan Passes. The objective was to unseat the Afghan ruler, Amir Dost Mohammad Khan, whom the British accused of collusion with the Russians, and replace him with Shah Shuja ul-Mulk. The invasion was executed swiftly. Except Ghazni, no Afghan city put up much of a resistance.  In August of 1839, Shah Shuja ul-Mulk was installed on the throne of Kabul, with British bayonets. The following year, the dethroned Amir Dost Mohammad Khan surrendered to the British, and was sent to India as a hostage. Initially, everything seemed to have been under control. But it was only a matter of time before the whole country would rise in rebellion. To make matters worse, the British lacked the experience and knowhow to occupy a country with complex tribal rivalries and rough terrain that didn’t generate much revenue. Things came to a head in December 1841, when the British envoy William Macaghten (or the de facto ruler of Afghanistan) was assassinated by Wazir Mohammad Akbar Khan, who led the uprising in Kabul. In the following month, an entire British army numbering 16,500 (4,500 troops and 12,000 camp followers) was destroyed in the passes and gorges between Kabul and Jalalabad. In April 1842, General Pollock, leading the Army of Retribution, forced through the Khyber Pass to relieve the British garrison at Jalalabad and recapture Kabul. To avenge the massacre of British troops, General Pollock briefly occupied and burned down parts of Kabul and Istalif, a village to the north of Kabul. However, the new governor-general of India, Lord Ellenborough, ordered the British troops to evacuate Afghanistan before the cold weather set in. The following year, Wazir Mohammad Akbar Khan received his father Amir Dost Mohammad at Ali Masjid, and escorted him up the Khyber Pass to Kabul to assume his throne as the Afghan ruler. The First Anglo-Afghan War was therefore considered the single largest military catastrophe for the British Empire in the 19th century. 

FIRST ANGLO-AFGHAN WAR PATTERN

The First Anglo-Afghan War set up a pattern that would be followed in subsequent invasions of Afghanistan. The pattern has four phases: First, swift invasion and occupation of Afghanistan without much resistance; second, resistance to foreign forces increases with the passage of time; third, the war is condemned to a stalemate; fourth, withdrawal (or retreat) of foreign troops. The events of the Second Anglo-Afghan War 1879-1880, the Soviet war 1979-1989, and the US and NATO mission in Afghanistan corroborate the statement. It is interesting that each one of these three military adventures was headed by a superpower of its time, and each one of these military adventures followed the pattern of the First Anglo-Afghan War. 16 years ago in October, the US launched its invasion of Afghanistan. With America’s Afghan war entering into the 17th year, the First Anglo-Afghan War offers stark lessons. Although there are visible differences between the two wars, the four-phased pattern in both wars remains the same.  First, the US invasion of Afghanistan was swift. Second, resistance to US military presence grew over time. Third, American officials have publicly admitted that there is a stalemate on the battlefield. Fourth, the US has largely withdrawn its troops from Afghanistan, and the remaining troops no longer operate in a combative capacity. In a face-saving effort, the US has encouraged negotiations with the Taliban. Back in 2001, things were different. When in December that year, Hamid Karzai suggested to US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that Mullah Omar wanted to retire to a local village in Kandahar in exchange for a safe exit from Kandahar City, Donald Rumsfeld rejected Hamid Karzai’s suggestion. Now it’s proving challenging to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. The US embarked on a costly war to topple the Taliban regime, but it is very likely that the same war will come to an end after the US-backed Afghan government reaches some sort of power-sharing agreement with the Taliban. Or even worse, if the US abandons Afghanistan once again (as it did after the end of the Cold War) and Afghanistan’s neighbours and major regional powers like China and Russia do not reach an agreement about the future of the country, it is very likely that the Taliban might overrun much of the country again. Then one could argue that the very war that was launched to topple the Taliban, has come to an end after power was restored to the Taliban. Everything will be back to square one. 

REGIONAL CONSENSUS ON AF FUTUREHistory suggests that Afghanistan enjoyed periods of stability when competing powers’ interests were not on a collision course in Afghanistan. The Tsarist Russia and British India agreed on a buffer state status for Afghanistan. As a result, even though Afghanistan’s foreign affairs were under British supervision, the country was generally peaceful and stable from 1880 to 1919. Later, during the two World Wars and first three decades of the Cold War, Afghanistan, unlike its immediate western and eastern neighbours, remained neutral. Afghanistan’s neutrality preserved a ‘Balance of Interest’ (BOI) between major powers. Forces of chaos and instability were unleashed when the BOI was upset as a result of a Communist coup in 1978. The Soviet Union not only did not help to restore the BOI, but totally destroyed it when it invaded Afghanistan in 1979. Peace and stability will return to Afghanistan when the BOI is restored again. However, the longer the Afghan war drags on, the more complicated will it get, and the more difficult will it be to restore that balance. Certainly the US presence will not help mitigate the crisis. The US has lost regional support for its presence in Afghanistan. It is fair to say that except India, no other country in the region wants to see US troops in Afghanistan anymore. When that’s the case, it is likely that the countries that remain opposed to US presence in Afghanistan will work (together if possible) to make life harder for the US. The total withdrawal of US troops will help tremendously with restoring the BOI in Afghanistan, providing regional players prevent a total collapse of state institutions. That being said, the good news is as we move from a unipolar world, (with the US as the only global power) to either a bipolar (the US and China as world powers), or a multipolar world, the chances of restoring the BOI through a regional consensus will increase. Peace and stability in Afghanistan will further facilitate regional connectivity, trade, and tourism between South and Central Asia, and the Middle East and East Asia. Pakistan, Iran, China, Russia, and to an extent India are in a better position than the US to work with Afghanistan to find a long-term, sustainable solution to the Afghan war. 

By arrangement with the Dawn 

Guwahati, October 1

An Assam-based retired defence personnel has claimed that the Foreigners’ Tribunal has sent him a notice asking him to prove that he was not an illegal Bangladeshi migrant, but an Indian citizen.Mohd Azmal Hoque, Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO) who retired from the service on September 30, 2016, told the media yesterday that he had received a notice placing him in the doubtful-voter category.(Follow The Tribune on Facebook; and Twitter @thetribunechd)It also charged him with having entered India in 1971 without proper documents, he said. “I have served the Army for 30 years,” Hoque said adding that he had received the notice asking him to appear before a local tribunal on October 13 with relevant documents to prove his Indian citizenship.The retired JCO said he had missed the first date of appearing before the tribunal on September 11 as he received the notice after that date. He said he would appear before the tribunal on October 13.“In 2012 also, I had received a notice saying I was a doubtful voter, but I submitted all documents in the tribunal court and it declared me an Indian citizen,” he said.He said he was not the first member of his family to have been served with such a notice. In 2012, his wife was also summoned by the tribunal to prove her citizenship.The issue was brought to the attention of the Army by a twitter post of lawyer Aman Wadud. Replying to Wadud’s tweet, Major DP Singh notified the Eastern Command that said “necessary assistance will be provided to the veteran”. — PTI

Placed in doubtful-voter category

• Mohd Azmal Hoque, Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO) who retired from the Army on September 30, 2016, has received a notice placing him in the doubtful-voter category
• The notice also charges him with having entered India in 1971 without proper documents
• In 2012 also, I had received a notice saying I was a doubtful voter, but I submitted all documents in the tribunal court and it declared me an Indian citizen, he claimed

Admiral DK Joshi, Navy ex-Chief

Ajay Banerjee

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, September 30

Former Navy Chief Admiral DK Joshi (retd) takes over as the Lieutenant Governor of Andaman and Nicobar Islands at a time when India is planning to make the islands its foremost military strategic outreach towards the east.A major Indian Tri-services base exists at Port Blair but with the dynamics changing, India is upgrading its capacities — ramping up its airfields on the islands that will enable it to hold large surveillance planes, have greater number of warships and another floating repair dockyard that can repair ships at sea.All these are aimed at keeping an eye on Beijing’s growing economic and military reliance on the Strait of Malacca. Admiral Joshi will be administrative head of the islands that are some 1,230 km east of Visakhapatnam and lie in the Bay of Bengal.Admiral Joshi, who also headed the country’s only Tri-services Command at Andaman and Nicobar Islands, will help ease clearances. The Malacca Strait is located less than 100 km south of the southernmost part of the Indian islands.The ‘six degree’ channel — the main shipping channel between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean — passes through it. Nearly 70,000 vessels pass through the strait annually, making it about 25 per cent of all global trade. In June, India started a permanent naval patrol of sea-shipping routes to the Malacca Strait.Indian warships are now present 24×7 at the western edge of the strategically vital straits — ‘looking’ at ship movement. Singapore is at its eastern edge. In the first week of June, the US Department of Defence had — in its report — highlighted why the Malacca Strait was crucial for China. “Malacca Strait is critical to the transport of natural gas and oil… China is particularly reliant on unimpeded sea lanes of communication like the South China Sea and Malacca Strait,” said the annual report to the Congress. “In 2016, approximately 80 per cent of China’s oil imports and 11 per cent of natural gas imports transited the South China Sea and Strait of Malacca,” the report had noted.China continues to look primarily to the Persian Gulf and Africa to satisfy its growing oil and gas demands, making the Malacca Strait even more important. China fears that India can interdict supplies in case of a conflict.Top sources have confirmed that the Navy is planning to position a greater number of assets on the islands.The P-8I series of surveillance planes will soon be stationed at INZ Baaz which is being expanded and so is the Shibpur naval air station.

Majid Jahangir

Tribune News Service

Srinagar, September 28

When the Army detected a group of militants close to the Line of Control (LoC) in the Lachipora area of the Uri sector on Tuesday, they had no idea that one of the infiltrating militants was Abdul Qayoom Najar — the longest-surviving and one of the most wanted militants of Kashmir.Najar became the first Kashmiri militant to be killed this year while trying to infiltrate into Kashmir. The Army said they didn’t know who was coming from across the LoC when it intercepted a group, resulting in a brief gunfight at the Zorawar post.“Around 4 am on Tuesday, our jawans noticed movement of at least three to four terrorists close to the LoC fence. They were challenged and a gunfight ensued. It lasted half an hour. During searches, we found the body of a militant. That time our focus was to trace his other two accomplices, who probably returned,” an Army officer said. “The body was handed over to the police. In the afternoon, we came to know that he was Najar, one the longest surviving local militants and the head of the Lashkar-e-Islam militant group. His identity was established by his family members,” he said.Police sources said they had an “intelligence input” about Najar’s infiltration into Kashmir, as he was asked by Hizbul Mujahideen chief Syed Salahuddin in Muzzaffarbad to “rebuilt the outfit” after the killing of top Hizbul brass in Kashmir recently.“We knew he (Najar) was coming,” said a senior police officer. The police said had Najar been able to infiltrate into Kashmir, it would have been a “big problem”. “Neutralising him would have been difficult because of his network,” Imtiyaz Hussain, SSP Baramulla, had said.

External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in New York. AFP

Smita Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, September 22

Terrorism remained the key theme as India went all guns blazing at Pakistan-sponsored terror at the UN General Assembly session and sideline meetings today.A young diplomat, Eanam Gambhir, minced no words while dubbing Pakistan “terroristan” in India’s right to reply during general debate at the 72nd session. “In its short history, Pakistan has become a geography synonymous with terror. The quest for a land of the pure has actually produced ‘the land of pure terror’. Pakistan is now terroristan,” she said. India was replying to Pakistan PM Shahi Khaqan Abbasi’s speech earlier where he had accused India of “abetting terrorism” and had sought a UN envoy for Kashmir.Participating in the BRICS ministerial meeting along the sidelines, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj emphasised on collective efforts to “disrupt terrorist networks, their financing and movement” and early conclusion and adoption of the CCIT (comprehensive convention on international terrorism) at the UN.Taking a jibe at tPakistan, Sushma said, “Terror groups continue to draw sustenance from support systems, including those based in South Asia. They continue to find support and shelter in countries that use terrorism as an instrument of state policy. Countering terrorism must not be a matter of political convenience.”The BRICS meet, attended by Sushma’s Chinese counterpart Wang Yi among others, in its joint release, said, “The Ministers reiterated their strong condemnation of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. They urged concerted efforts to counter terrorism on a firm international legal basis, under the UN auspices, and expressed their conviction that a comprehensive approach was necessary to ensure effective fight against terrorism.”But unlike the joint statement issued after the recent BRICS Summit in Xiamen, the New York statement did not mention terror groups ‘Taliban, Isil/Daish, Al-Qaida and its affiliates, including Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Haqqani network, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, TTP and Hizb ut-Tahrir’.

The man who led the IAF in the 1965 war has sold off his farm near Delhi. File photo

Roopinder Singh

Marshal of the Indian Air Force, Arjan Singh, DFC, has always had a larger-than-life image, and this is one person whose deeds continue to justify it. The Indian Air Force’s only Field Marshal has inspired generations of flyers ever since he joined the IAF in 1939 and was posted to IAF’s Number 1 squadron at Ambala in January 1940, flying in frail Westland Wapitis.The man who led the IAF in the 1965 war has sold off his farm near Delhi, and entrusted a corpus of Rs 2 crore to a trust devoted to the welfare of retired Air Force personnel. Known for personal probity and punctiliousness, the MIAF has set a wonderful example in using personal wealth for the welfare of others.(Follow The Tribune on Facebook; and Twitter @thetribunechd)“This is leadership from the front, which the IAF has seen right from the time he joined it in 1939, the gallantry in the Imphal campaign of 1944 and the conflict of 1965. It is unprecedented and completely selfless, which is what his actions have been throughout,” says Pushpinder Singh, editor of the Vayu Aerospace Review.The Marshal of Air Force and Mrs Arjan Singh Trust will seek to open avenues of financial relief for ex-IAF personnel and their dependents who need assistance.The money has been invested in RBI bonds and it is expected that the returns from it will be Rs 16 lakh and “15 per cent of the interest will be added to the corpus and the rest disbursed to those applying for assistance,” says the MIAF.MIAF Arjan Singh, his wife Teji Arjan Singh and their son Arvind Singh will be the trustees for life, but it will be run by the president of the Air Force Association and other ex-officio members of the IAF.“I had full support of the family,” says Arjan Singh. His wife, Teji recalls that when she asked him, why he had put her name on it, he replied: “If you hadn’t agreed, how could I have done it?”The farm that MIAF Arjan Singh sold was the last link he had with land, which was very dear to him. His grandfather, Risaldar-Major Bhagwan Singh, had a farm near Lyallpur, now called Faislabad, in Pakistan, where the young Arjan Singh spent his childhood, watching planes and dreaming of flying one, someday. After Partition, the family was allotted 80 acres of land in Churwali village, near Adampur, Punjab. “I was also allotted a pucca house. Kartar Singh, a good man, used to look after the land and when I sold it, I gave the house to him. I sold off the land because I could not take care of it as I was in service. In fact, when I told Sardar Swaran Singh (the then External Affairs Minister), in whose constituency my land fell, how much I had sold it for, he chided me for selling it below the market rate,” he said in an earlier interview when this writer wrote his biography. The family also had land in Terai, which was tilled by his father Kishan Singh and other family members.“I am no longer a Jat as you said in the book, I have no land now,” said Arjan Singh, recalling a comment made in the book, written two years ago, that the Jat in him was kept alive by the farm.For this Aulakh Jat, giving up his land is a great gesture, and by setting up a trust for the welfare of others, Arjan Singh has set a shining example in a nation where such things have become rare. He has also institutionalised the trust by ensuring that family members do not run it. IAF officials “who are more in touch with the current needs” control it. This makes it even more important that his example be emulated. For this a climate has to be created, where such trusts are encouraged.The founder of The Tribune, Dyal Singh Majithia, set up a number of trusts to serve the public, including The Tribune Trust, Union Academy (later known as Dyal Singh School and Dyal Singh College), Lahore, Dyal Singh Library and Dyal Singh College, New Delhi. The nation, on the whole, had gained a lot from philanthropic trusts like the Dorabji Tata Trust, which helped set up the first cancer hospital in Asia, and the Birla Educational Trust that runs hundreds of primary schools and colleges.Unlike these luminaries, MIAF Arjan Singh comes from a service background. His father, Kishan Singh, a civil engineer, worked in Ceylon Railways. However he has always been large-hearted, and eventually it is not what you have that counts, it is what you give that makes a difference. The IAF will surely remember this magnificent gesture of its Field Marshal for a long time.
This piece was originally published in The Tribune on December 24, 2004