The Pathankot attack is not a spontaneous response to recent developments; it is a manifestation of Pakistan’s national security strategy to pursue its revisionist agenda against India, says C Christine Fair, author of Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War, and an associate professor in the Peace and Security Studies Programme at Georgetown University’s Edmund A Walsh School of Foreign Service. Fair, who earlier served as a political officer to the UN Assistance Mission to Afghanistan in Kabul, tells Bhaswar Kumar in a telephonic interview that there is a consensus within the Indian security establishment that India lacks the offensive capability to defeat Pakistan in a short war.

The January 2 attack on an Indian Air Force base in Pathankot was allegedly carried out by Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) operatives. What are the dynamics between organisations like JeM and Pakistan’s military and civilian establishments?

Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) set up JeM as a competitor to the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which the ISI had formed earlier. Before the formation of JeM, three Pakistani terrorists – Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar, Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh and Maulana Masood Azhar – were released by Indian authorities in return for hostages taken during the hijacking of the Indian Airlines flight IC-814 in December 1999. Azhar and the two other terrorists, upon their release in Kandahar, were ferried to Pakistan under ISI escort. Within a few weeks, Azhar announced the formation of JeM in Karachi.

LeT and JeM are ideologically distinct organisations. JeM, like the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, is Deobandi; LeT is Ahle Hadees. Besides, JeM generally conducts suicide attacks, while LeT conducts high-risk missions where the goal is not to die but its operatives would still rather die than be taken captives.

These terrorist groups have an army major assigned to them. It is the majors’ responsibility to ensure the groups’ operatives are trained and they get the required resources. A major can, for example, authorise a small-level attack in Kashmir against an Indian army unit — an offensive that does not have major strategic implications. On the other hand, every attack outside of Kashmir has to have the army chief’s imprimatur, given the likely strategic implications — after all, if the Americans get upset and hold up coalition support funding, it is the army chief who will have to answer.

The Pathankot attack came within a week of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Lahore and the resumption of talks with Pakistan. Have the terrorists and their handlers achieved their goal by creating a hurdle for the peace process?

If the attack is seen as an attempt to derail the nascent peace process between the two countries, it might be a misreading of the way in which Pakistan employs its jihadi assets to secure its strategic interests in the region. The attack on the air base is not a spontaneous response to recent developments. It is simply the latest manifestation of the Pakistani national security strategy to pursue its revisionist agenda against India.

Pakistan has called PM Modi’s bluff. Despite all the rhetoric, there is a consensus within the Indian security establishment – at least among those who draw their conclusions from data instead of speaking from nationalist sentiment – that India lacks the offensive capability to defeat Pakistan in a short war. That is important because there will only be a short war between India and Pakistan, due to the presence of nuclear weapons on both sides, if the former responds to such a provocation.

They did it at Gurdaspur, too. The Gurdaspur attack was not in response to the meeting between Modi and Sharif in Ufa. The timing of the Gurdaspur attack is important; it occurred after the reported Indian raid in Myanmar against militants. You will remember the statements issued after the Myanmar raid, warning that all other neighbours of India harbouring terrorists would receive the same treatment. You will also remember the Pakistani response to these statements. Gurdaspur was really about calling the Indian government out on its statements and bravado after the Myanmar incident.

Both these attacks – Pathankot and Gurdaspur – were conducted in and around tier-III cities or small towns. Unlike an attack on a city like Mumbai or Delhi, which will cause a massive uproar and have a galvanising impact on the populace – the Parliament attack, for instance – these were carefully calibrated probes to continue to test India’s red lines. We need to see this in tandem with the attack on the Indian consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif. Pakistan has been testing India’s red lines within Indian territory and in Afghanistan.

When you say Pakistan has called the government’s bluff, are you referring to Pakistan’s civilian government or its military establishment?

The civilians are irrelevant in this case. This is all coming from the army. There is no “rogue” ISI, either. The ISI reports to the Pakistani army chief.

Don’t you think that the recently revived dialogue process is the only way forward?

India should not be talking to Pakistan at all. Pakistan says it has a legitimate claim on Kashmir, which it does not. The Indian Independence Act of 1947 allowed the princely states to decide their fate. India possesses Kashmir’s instrument of accession. The case of Junagarh and Hyderabad complicates the morality of India’s actions, but that is a different issue.

Pakistan could have made a claim for Junagarh at the UN but it has no claim over Kashmir. Pakistan also did not fulfil the first condition required for a plebiscite under the UN Security Council resolution on Kashmir. Of course, the Shimla agreement obviates that in any event.

As India continues to talk to Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir, it emboldens the Pakistanis and legitimises their narrative domestically. It fosters the belief among Pakistanis that their claim is entertained by India. The Pakistani army gets to tell its people that even the Indians know that they need to talk to us.

If Pakistan wants peace, it could have it by accepting the LoC as the formal border and desisting from sending terrorists across the border. By the way, that would technically be a concession from the Indian side since it has an instrument of accession for the whole of Kashmir. India should be willing to talk only when Pakistan is willing to ratify the LoC as the border.

Every time one of these attacks occurs, the benefit that Pakistan gets is that the international community calls for talks between India and Pakistan for resolving outstanding issues. In other words, the international community imposes a false equivalence between Pakistan and India. If you cannot punish Pakistan for its support to terrorist organisations, at least you can deprive it of any benefit.

The international community will have to change its talking points. If the international community, instead of calling for talks, says Pakistan needs to act like a responsible nuclear power that does not conduct proxy warfare against its neighbours, and that the changing of maps by bloodshed is not acceptable, Pakistan will be deprived of any benefit from such attacks.

According to reports, Nawaz Sharif has called PM Modi and assured him of action against the persons responsible…

This is absolute dramebaazi. Sharif is an irrelevant actor in these matters.

Aside from military funding and support, consider the fact that Hafiz Saeed’s Jamat-ud-Dawa (JuD), the rechristened LeT, gets money from the budget of Pakistani Punjab’s government, which is run by Sharif’s party. The government said it would run JuD’s educational establishments, so JuD has a line item in every Punjab provincial government budget.

Besides, JeM enjoys political cover from the two factions of the Jamiat ul-e-Islami.

How can India build an effective deterrence against this form of sub-conventional warfare?

I do not see too many options that India has. It has not made the investments it needs to ensure deterrence against such acts by way of offensive superiority on its international border. India’s current conventional posture on the international border is of defensive competence instead of offensive superiority.

Defence modernisation for such deterrence requires reconfiguring your current military assets, which are bulky and easily detectable, into smaller units that can be forward-deployed much more rapidly without the intelligence footprint that Pakistan can easily detect.

It is about personnel policies. India does not need a huge standing army for such purposes as much as it needs special operators to conduct hot-pursuit missions into Pakistani territory without detection. Currently, India does not have a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) or “jointness” among the different branches of its armed forces for seamless interoperability. Pakistan does not suffer from these shortcomings; it has “jointness” and it essentially has a CDS in the form of its army chief. Most disturbingly, Pakistan’s position has been significantly bolstered by American military largesse.

Lastly, but most importantly, there needs to be the political will to use these assets as and when required.

This is not a bad time to be an Indian. Successive governments have come to understand that if you remain focused on not having a large confrontation with Pakistan, India’s economy will continue to grow. But, you can have this attitude only if you are willing to suffer several casualties in attacks from Pakistan every year.

We have seen a resurgence of JeM in the recent past…

JeM had been defunct for years after it split in December of 2001. Its leadership was divided over whether they should turn their guns on Pakistan for aiding the Americans in bringing down the Taliban. Azhar said he would not turn against Pakistan even as members of his organisation revolted and went on to join Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Azhar was kept in protective custody for years and allowed to grow his empire in Bhawalpur. The thinking of ISI was that as long as people were loyal to Azhar they would not turn their guns on Pakistan.

As part of its strategy to combat TTP, the Pakistani army contacted TTP commanders and gave them a choice to go back and fight in Afghanistan; this coincided with the elections in Afghanistan. The other important part of the strategy was that the Pakistani army revivified JeM to draw back the original defectors from JeM and redirect them to India.

In a piece I had written for India Today in September last year, I predicted the next attack would probably be conducted by JeM, instead of LeT. My colleagues at the UN who had been monitoring Al Qaida and the Taliban informed me a year ago that the JeM cadre was amassing at the LoC between India and Pakistan.

The move to revivify JeM is very much part of the Pakistani army’s domestic security strategy.

http://wap.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/pathankot-attack-aimed-at-probing-modi-govt-s-red-lines-christine-fair-116010900252_1.html

Islamabad, January 8

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has asked the Intelligence Bureau to probe the leads provided by India on the alleged Pakistani links to the terror attack in Pathankot, a report said on Friday.

Sharif gave the directive to the Intelligence Bureau after chairing a high-level meeting here on Thursday, The Nation newspaper reported.

Among those who attended the meeting were Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, Adviser on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz, Special Assistant on Foreign Affairs Tariq Fatemi, National Security Adviser (NSA) Nasser Khan Janjua, Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhry and Intelligence Bureau chief Aftab Sultan.

“Officials said the prime minister and the aides agreed to launch investigations into the evidence provided by India,” the report said.

Hours earlier, India linked the upcoming foreign secretary-level talks with Pakistan to Islamabad’s action against suspected Pakistani terrorists who raided the Indian Air Force base in Pathankot on January 2.

The pre-dawn attack left seven Indian security personnel dead. Security forces killed all six attackers.

Sharif and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi spoke on the telephone after the terror attack. India said it had provided “actionable” inputs to Pakistan, and Sharif assured Modi of “prompt and decisive” action against groups and individuals who might be linked to the attack.

The Nation quoted an official as saying that the leads provided by India were handed over to IB chief Aftab Sultan for further action.

Addressing the meeting, Sharif said Pakistan was ready to boost cooperation with India as part of counter-terrorism efforts.

Sharif also directed NSA Nasser Khan Janjua to remain in contact with his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval in a bid to keep renewed dialogue on track.

Another official, however, said the information provided by India was “not enough” as it was just limited to telephone numbers. He said Pakistan might ask for additional information.

“We would like to have solid information to build a case for action. Otherwise courts intervene and the suspects will be bailed out,” he added.

Ajay Banerjee,Tribune News Service,New Delhi, January 5

In what appears to be a serious lapse on the part of the security establishment, the command of the operation to flush out terrorists from the Air Force base at Pathankot was changed thrice. It has emerged that at least three officers of the Army, IAF and the National Security Guard headed the operation at different stages. Sources said a review was being carried on this.When the planning to counter the terrorists started in Delhi around 1 pm on January 1 —14 hours before the first shots were fired in Pathankot at 3:30 am on January 2 — two columns of the Army were rushed to Pathankot. Around 1 am on January 2, two-and-a-half hours before the terrorists struck, an NSG team from Gurgaon landed at IAF base. Around mid-morning, the Western Air Command Chief, Air Marshal SB Deo, landed in Pathankot to “oversee” the operation. The Director General of NSG, RC Tayal, arrived in the evening and “oversaw” the operation in coordination with the IG (Operations), NSG. It was amid this confusion and rush to make claims that Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh was “wrongly informed” that the operations were over on January 2 evening. The minister tweeted so, only to delete the message a few hours later. Among the questions being probed are whether the terrorists had a hideout in Punjab. Sources said since it has been established that the six terrorists were on Indian soil by 12:30 am on January 1 (when the first of the four calls  were made to Pakistan), they could not have roamed around on the streets carrying over 40 kg of bullets, 30 kg of RDX, guns and grenades for 26 hours when they attacked the IAF base. Another question is how the BSF “failed in securing an unfenced portion on the right bank of the Ujh near Bamyal village in Punjab and who owns this land.Another unusual thing was why the NSG, and not the Army, was told to carry out the operation when the “black cat” commandos are largely trained for urban combat such as the Mumbai attacks.300 NSG: commandos took part in the Pathankot operation160 commandos: flew from Palam military airbase to the attack site on January 170 ‘black cats’: each of two more units reached the IAF base on January 2, 31commando: (bomb squad chief Lt Col EK Niranjan) was killed21other: commandos suffered minor and major injuriesBury slain terrorists in pigskin: Tripura Guv New Delhi: In remarks that could kick up a row, Tripura Governor Tathagata Roy said bodies of terrorists should be wrapped in pigskin and then buried. “I seriously suggest Russian treatment to terrorists’ carcasses. Wrap them in pigskin, bury them face down in pig excreta.””Modi’s chai with Sharif cost us 7 soldiers: SenaMumbai: “India has sacrificed seven of its brave soldiers for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tea with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif,” the Shiv Sena said in an editorial in party mouthpiece Saamna on Monday. The Sena is critical of Modi’s engagement with Sharif. Kerala institute named after NSG officer Thiruvananthapuram: Hours after the last rites of NSG officer Lt Col EK Niranjan, Kerala’s labour department renamed the industrial training institute in his hometown Elumbulsherry in his honour. The ITI was opened in September last and was named Elumbulsherry Government ITI.

NSG Lt Col buried with full military honours

Tribune News Service,Bengaluru, january 5

The body of Lt Col EK Niranjan, killed while defusing a bomb at the Pathankot IAF base, was today laid to rest at his ancestral village Elambulassery in Palakkad district of Kerala.The body of the 34-year-old was buried on the premises of his paternal home amid chanting of ‘Hare Rama Hare Krishna’ by his close relatives and others present.Niranjan was accorded full military honours, including a 21-gun salute.“The Last Post played on the bugle brought a lump in the throat of many of those attending the funeral,” Kerala Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala said over phone. Earlier in the day, the body was kept at the local school for the people to pay homage.The Kerala government has also renamed the ITI at Lt Col Niranjan’s village after the martyr.Man held for FB postThiruvananthapuram: A 24-year-old man was on Monday arrested in Malappuram district (Kerala) for allegedly making derogatory  remarks on Facebook against Lt Col EK Niranjan and his family. Anwar Sadhik was booked under IPC 124 (A) (sedition). A casual labourer at a local shop, he posed as a journalist with a regional daily. pti

BSF conducts search, says no hint yet of infiltration

Shaurya Karanbir Gurung,Tribune News Service,New Delhi, January 5

Border Security Force Director General DK Pathak today reached Gurdaspur to supervise the fourth day of a search near the Ujh river for clues and evidence to suggest that the terrorists who attacked the Pathankot Air Force Station had infiltrated through the International Border with Pakistan.The BSF suspects a possible entry route of the terrorists through the area near Ujh, which also passes by Bamyal village, about 25 km from Pathankot. A BSF post is located ahead of the village.The BSF is also searching along the banks of the Ravi river and the areas around it.“We are looking at other possibilities such as tunnels having been constructed under the IB or underwater means to cross the border through the Ujh and Ravi rivers, which meander into Pakistan from India. But as it is not the monsoon season, the depths of the rivers are a few feet,” said a BSF officer.The officer said tell-tale signs such as fencing being cut, footprints, bending of the grass or an item left behind have not been found. “There were also no Intelligence alerts about any infiltration,” said a BSF officer.There is fencing along the IB in this area, but not in the nullahs (stream). The BSF has instead constructed posts, placed “adequate” manpower and surveillance equipment such as Hand Held Thermal Imagers (HHTIs) on the Ujh’s banks. “It is not possible for heavily armed terrorists to infiltrate through this area,” said the officer. Following the Dinanagar terrorist attack last July, the BSF had increased its deployment along the IB in Gurdaspur. This includes an additional battalion and seven training companies, consisting of more than 2,400 men.The BSF is planning to procure 300 more HHTIs, including for deployment along the IB. Another surveillance equipment used by the BSF in Punjab is the Battle Field Surveillance Radar.Possible entry routeThe BSF suspects a possible entry route of the terrorists through the area near Ujh, which also passes by Bamyal village, about 25 km from Pathankot. A BSF post is located ahead of the village.

Howrah (WB), December 29

A local court today remanded the Army jawan arrested in connection with the alleged gang-rape of a teenager inside a compartment of the Howrah-Amritsar Express in police custody for four days.Monjiris Tripathy, who was arrested by GRP from Madhupur railway station on Monday, was produced before the Howrah chief judicial magistrate’s court during the day and sent to police custody.Tripathy, who is posted in Kolkata at the Eastern Command headquarters, had allegedly compelled the 14-year-old, who had boarded the compartment at Howrah station, to consume alcohol. She was then allegedly raped by two other Army men inside the train. The two are absconding.The Army is cooperating with the police in tracing the absconding jawans. “The police are investigating and we are cooperating with them. We are sharing the information we have so that the accused can be caught and action taken against them as per the law of the land,” an Army source said. — PTI

Syed Ali Ahmed,Tribune News Service,New Delhi, December 23

Parliament mourns victims’ death | BSF, DGCA to probe | Angry kin confront Union Home Minister

Mourning the death of 10 BSF personnel in air crash yesterday at Dwarka in Delhi, members of the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha stood in silence for a brief while, though a separate inquiry by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation and the BSF is being done to know the reason behind the crash.In the Rajya Sabha, Chairman Hamid Ansari and in the Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan expressed condolences over the death of the BSF personnel and prayed for the injured.Sources, who were at the homage paying ceremony of the deceased, said the BSF and the DGCA have constituted inquiry to find out the actual reason for the crash. Union Minister Rajnath Singh was also present at the ceremony.A mourning relative of one of the 10 paramilitary personnel confronted Rajnath, asking him as to “why does a soldier’s family cries every time?”“Sir, why does the soldier’s family has to cry every time?” Why sir? Why wasn’t it a VIP plane? Why were they given such an old plane? It was an old aircraft. Sir, please answer me,” the girl questioned the Home Minister.Captain Shivrain’s family alleged that despite the aircraft was very old, it was never replaced by the force.“I told Rajnath Singh that the accident probably happened because it was an old plane. Though my son-in-law is no more, the BSF is yet to induct new planes,” said Wazir Singh Panwar, father-in-law of co-pilot Rajesh Shivrain, a deceased.

Vijay Mohan,Tribune News Service,Chandigarh, December 20

Most cantonment boards have failed to fulfil their stipulated mandate of executing government schemes and providing the required civic amenities to residents in these areas.A test check of 17 cantonment boards (CBs) by the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) has revealed that during 2009-14, barring one board, none of the 17 CBs had prepared and implemented town planning schemes, plans for economic development and social justice in their respective areas.There are 62 cantonments located in 19 states across the country. The main functions of these are broadly the same as those of municipal bodies in towns.Section 62 of the Cantonments Act 2006 stipulates that it shall be the duty of every board to make reasonable provisions for civic amenities in their areas. The CB is headed by a chief executive officer, who is independent of the Army and is the civil executive interface of the civil population.None of the CBs provided all 24 types of civic services, mandated under the Cantonments Act, to its residents and no central government schemes applicable in the CBs for uplift of the poor and provision of infrastructure facilities were implemented in the cantonments.The CAG, in its latest report, has also pointed out that the position regarding revenue generation was also not encouraging as the CBs were unable to optimize revenue generation through taxes and non-taxes, leading to their increased dependency on grant-in-aid from the Ministry of Defence.This, CAG observed, was mainly due to non-revision of taxes every five years, recovery of property tax at a lower than the stipulated rate and non-levy of vehicle entry tax and various other factors.

Schemes fail to take off

• A Comptroller and Auditor General report says barring one of 17 boards examined, none had prepared or implemented town planning schemes, plans for economic development and social justice
• There are 62 cantonments across 19 states and function just like municipal bodies in towns
• The boards are responsible for making provisions for civic amenities in their areas
• But none of these provided all 24 types of civic services, mandated under the Cantonments Act, to its residents, said the report

Tribune News Service,Jammu, December 18

The White Knight Corps today organised a seminar on human rights at Sangha Auditorium in Akhnoor subdivision of Jammu district.Centered on the theme, “Human Rights issues and their impact on the security forces — the road ahead”, the seminar was an effort by the Army to increase awareness about issues related to human rights and generate new ideas through mutual exchange of experiences and thoughts of eminent participants at the seminar, said a Defence spokesperson.In his keynote address, the GOC, 16 Corps, Lieutenant General RR Nimbhorkar, highlighted the methodology with which the Army approached counter-insurgency and how upholding of human rights fit in the paradigm.Speaking of J&K in specific, Lieutenant General RR Nimbhorkar said as the ground situation had improved, Army operations had evolved in sync with refinement in the Army’s thinking, operating procedures and rules of engagement.Speakers at the seminar were Justice Cyriac Joseph (retd), Acting Chairman of National Human Rrights Commission Nitin Gokhale, Vrinda Grover, Lt Gen SA Hasnain (retd) and Col Ranjit Singh (retd).

Tribune News Service,Dehradun, December 17

As many as five new Volvo buses will be plying between Uttarakhand and Chandigarh beginning Friday.Uttarakhand Transport Corporation general manager Deepak Jain said the Chandigarh Transport Department had given the no objection certificate (NOC) to the state transport corporation following which five new Volvo buses would start plying between Uttarakhand and Chandigarh from tomorrow.Jain said the Uttarakhand Transport Corporation had been holding a series of meetings with the Chandigarh Transport Department in the past. The latest letter was sent to the Chandigarh Transport Commissioner for the NOC, which was finally granted.While four Volvo buses would be plying between Dehradun and Chandigarh, one bus would ply between Haldwani and Chandigarh. A large number of people would be benefitted with these buses, he said. Referring to the schedule of the buses, Jain said the bus plying between Haldwani and Chandigarh would leave Dehradun for Chandigarh at 6.30 am while it would return from Chandigarh to Dehradun at 2.25 pm.The first Volvo bus from Dehradun would depart for Chandigarh at 7.30 am and would start from Chandigarh for Dehradun at 1.30 pm. The second bus would depart from Dehradun at 10 pm whereas the same bus will depart from Chandigarh at 6.50 am.The third and fourth buses would reach the final destination, Katra, from Dehradun via Chandigarh. These two buses will depart for Katra from Dehradun at 6 pm and on return would reach Chandigarh at 2 am from Katra.The Schedule

• The bus plying between Haldwani and Chandigarh will leave Dehradun for Chandigarh at 6.30 am while it will  return from Chandigarh at 2.25 pm.
• The first Volvo bus from Dehradun will depart for Chandigarh at 7.30 am and start return journey at 1.30 pm. The second bus will leave Dehradun at 10 pm and return at 6.50 am.
• The third and fourth buses will reach the final destination, Katra, from Dehradun via Chandigarh. These two buses will depart for Katra from Dehradun at 6 pm and on return would reach Chandigarh at 2 am from Katra.

Amir Karim Tantray,Tribune News Service.Jammu, December 17

Call it a deliberate attitude of the government to remain unaware of the fallout of the Baglihar hydroelectric project reservoir or inability of officers to deal the situation, uncertainty is increasing in the twin districts of Doda and Kishtwar, where the threat of a huge disaster is becoming a major concern for the populace.This 900-MW power project is fast turning the area into a no-habitation zone with huge mountains ‘merging’ into the Chenab slowly and steadily.The stagnant water has started to show its effects with loose soil becoming its first victim. Water has entered deep inside the mountains with the area being home to different kinds of stone, including lime and gypsum, for which water is a great threat.Soil erosion had started within months of the creation of the reservoir and sinking of a portion of a 100-metre road near Assar in January 2009 was its first evidence. Since then, rock after rock and mountain after mountain started to feel the heat. Soil erosion is fast turning the area into a death zone.“This was bound to happen as the government did not pay any heed to our report in 1997 when we called for taking remedial measures before starting the project. This report is gathering dust in government offices and no action has been taken,” said GM Bhat, a geological expert.Construction on the state-owned Baglihar project near the Chanderkote area of Ramban district was started in 1999. In October 2008, the 450-MW first phase was commissioned, which was inaugurated by then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. On November 7 this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the 450-MW second phase and made the project fully functional.The threat seems to be increasing with time as water can lead to localised earthquakes in the near future. The area already falls under Seismic Zone V and violating natural norms adds to the threat.“The fault line passes through the area and water entering the mountains can lead to earthquakes. Though the process has not started yet, it cannot be ignored. It can start any moment in the future, but we cannot tell the exact time for want of instruments and technology,” Bhat cautioned.He said a major disaster like an earthquake of magnitude of above 7 on the Richter scale could break the dam wall and the area downstream would be nowhere.The Baglihar power project authorities and the Power Development Department are not willing to accept this fact. They feel that the soil erosion occurring in the area is not due to the reservoir.“The Baglihar project reservoir has nothing to do with soil erosion and sinking of land in the upper reaches. Even if it is due to the reservoir, the impact cannot be more than 50 metres. The widespread road network which is coming up in the area has led to the sinking of the road,” said Abdul Wahid, Chief Engineer, Baglihar project.“If these experts have anything to say about the project and its fallout, they should share it us and the higher authorities. I am not buying the argument that the Baglihar reservoir is responsible for the damage,” he said.Elected representatives of the erstwhile Doda district have failed to take up the issue at the highest level and take it to its logical end. Despite being a part of the government, several elected members failed to convince the high-ups that the Baglihar project was becoming a threat to the area. Local residents have expressed concern over the impending disaster, but there is nobody to listen to them.“The Baglihar project may have given a boost to the state’s economy, but it has surely added to the misery of people of the erstwhile Doda district. We are living on a potential time bomb which can explode anytime, causing extensive damage to the region,” said Syed Asim Hashmi, president, Bar Association, Doda.“If any such thing happens, it will not only have an impact in our area, but the area downstream will be affected as well. The state has behaved like a chronic capitalist which has failed to address the issues and pay back royalty to people and the region,” he said.