New Delhi, November 8

Banks will open additional counters and work extra hours beginning Thursday to help people exchange Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes that have been declared invalid from midnight tonight.Anticipating panic and rush at bank counters, RBI as well as government has set up control rooms in Mumbai and the national capital to avoid any crisis, Department of Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das said.Banks will remain shut tomorrow to allow stocking of smaller currency notes and public will be allowed to tender their now invalid Rs 500 and Rs 1000 from November 10. They can deposit any amount of the invalid currency in their bank account till December 30 and also exchange them for lower banknotes at special counters at banks and post offices till November 24 but with limit of Rs 4,000 in a day.Bank will, however, report any unusual transaction to Financial Intelligence Unit and tax authorities for scrutiny. RBI Governor Urjit Patel said the central bank had ramped up production of the new higher security currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 2,000 that will replace the notes being taken out of circulation. The new notes will come into circulation from November 10, he said.      He linked the government decision to use high denomination currency notes for terrorism financing and also for holding black money.While overall currency circulation had increased by 40 per cent during 2011 to 2016, Rs 500 banknotes in circulation had gone up by 76 per cent and that of Rs 1000 by 109 per cent.As many as 16.5 billion notes of Rs 500 denomination are in circulation currently while 6.7 billion Rs 1,000 notes are in market. — PTI

THE BLACK BUCK STOPS HERE, SAYS MODI

NEW WHITE REVOLUTION Notes of `500, `1,000 not legal tender any more, 50-day window to deposit or exchange

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on Tuesday the abolition of 1000 and 500 rupees bank notes from midnight, a dramatic move aimed at stamping out corruption and draining illicit cash from the economy.

In a surprise late-evening televised address to the nation, Modi said the notes in circulation can be exchanged at banks till December 30. Some concessions will be allowed for use of these notes at hospitals and crematoriums, and to buy air, rail and bus tickets till November 11.

There will be some restriction on withdrawal of cash from banks and ATMs (See box).

The move could help bring billions of dollars-worth of unaccounted for cash back into the economy, and choke the flow of fake high-value banknotes militant groups use to fund their attacks against India.

The decision is also an attempt by Modi to fulfill his election promise of curbing tax evasion and recovering illegally stashed incomes overseas. It gives his Bharatiya Janata Party a talking point ahead of elections in five states next year.

But the move entails possible downside risks. Given that about 40% of India’s economy is driven by small- and medium-sized enterprises that largely run on cash transactions, the decision could have a knock-on effect on economic growth.

The short notice too sparked concern among people, and large queues were reported outside ATMs across India, as people rushed to withdraw smaller bank notes. The move could also inconvenience poorer people and families planning weddings, the season for which starts in days.

It wasn’t immediately clear how businesses and private banks with large stocks of highvalue notes will deal with the transition. The banned denominations account for more than 80% of all currency in circulation by value.

“Banks will be closed tomorrow. It will cause some hardship to you… Let us ignore these hardship… In a country’s history there come some moments when every person feels he too should be a part of it,” the prime minister said in a 4-minute speech.

“We have an opportunity when every citizen can join this mega mission,” he added, calling the move an “Imandari ka Utsav”, or celebration of honesty.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will issue a new `2000 and `500 notes later.

Modi also dwelled on the scourge of fake bank notes, saying militants operating against India were using counterfeit of the 500 rupee note, worth about $7.50 at current exchange rates.

NOTEWORTHY DETAILS

“Banks will be closed tomorrow. It will cause some hardship to you …. Let us ignore these hardships… In country’s history, there comes a moment when people will want to participate in the nation building and reconstruction. Very few such moments come in life.” — Narendra Modi, PM

Deposit old notes of `500 and `1,000 in bank or post office accounts between November 10 and December 30, 2016, showing ID proof

After Dec 30, you can exchange notes at designated RBI offices till March 31 next year with a declaration form along with proof and reasons

WITHDRAWAL LIMIT

BANK `10,000 per day and `20,000 per week

ATM `2,000 per card per day which will increase to `4,000 per card

NO RESTRICTIONS ON

Payments by demand draft, cheque, non-cash payments, debit card, etc

FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS, VALID AT:

Government hospitals

Railway ticket booking counters

Ticket counters of govt buses

Airline ticket counters

Petrol, diesel and gas stations authorised by public sector oil companies

Consumer coop stores authorised by state or central govt

Milk booths authorised by state govts

Crematorium, burial grounds

Ajay Banerjee

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, November 7

The Ministry of Defence on Monday approved a new ‘blacklisting’ policy that will tackle corruption in defence deals and having a method to deal with foreign companies who pay bribes.The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) that met under the chairmanship of Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar okayed the new policy.Its details shall be put out on the website of the MoD in a few days.Sources said the MoD has decided to do away with having a system of ‘blanket blacklisting’.The Tribune had reported details of this on October 26 on how the ‘blacklisting’ policy has been okayed. The DAC is the apex decision-making body of the MoD.The new policy will have a pointed product-specific ban, aimed at punishing the corrupt among the foreign suppliers and not hold to ransom the country’s military and defence needs. The new policy envisages that a person of a foreign company, if found to be indulging in corruption will not be allowed to deal in another case of the company’s subsidiary, sources said.During the tenure of the Congress-led UPA (from May 2004 to May 2014), a ‘blanket blacklisting’ was followed and several new procurements are held up.The MoD has decided to do away with ‘blanket blacklisting’ of foreign companies that were found guilty of offering bribes, a top official in the MoD told the Tribune.‘Blacklisting’ a firm may not be a good option as it just forecloses options for India. There are no more than 4-5 equipment makers who are largely integrators of specialised parts produced by niche companies.A sub-committee formed by the MoD will issue guidelines on the extent of blacklisting, its tenure and what all will be the procedure.In 2015 a committee headed by former Union Home Secretary Dhirendra Singh, after talking suggestions, submitted a report on Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) and suggested that misdeeds of an entity or its employees should not be visited on the equipment or system.In August 2014, just months after the Narendra Modi government took over the MoD informally decided that ‘blanket bans’ will not help and now this has been firmed up in way of a policy.The MoD banned the Bofors artillery gun in the late 1980s. Since then, there has been no artillery gun purchase. In 2013, the purchase of AgustaWestland helicopters was stopped midway. In both cases, suspected bribery charges emerged.

Amit Khajuria

Tribune News Service

Jammu, November 3

Residents of border areas in the Jammu region had the darkest Diwali this year as they could not light a single candle on the festival due to continuous shelling from across the fence.Tension on the international border and Line of Control (LoC) dampened the festive season this year for residents of Jammu, particularly border villages, with 11 lives lost within a month.Uncertainty prevailed in all villages along the LoC and international border with residents of these villages leading their lives under the shadow of fear for more than a month.Fear could be seen in the eyes of people of all ages, from the elderly to one-year-olds, who had been witnessing continuous shelling from the other side. There was no festive season, right from the first Navratra to Bhai Dooj, for residents of border villages.The festivity was missing from their lives since September 29 when surgical strikes were conducted by the Army and Pakistan started unprovoked firing at different posts on the international border.“What Diwali? We forgot this festival this year!” said Ram Lal, a farmer in the Ramgarh sector of Samba district near the international border.“From Navratras to Bhai Dooj, we did not have proper food. There was no reason to celebrate the festival. We could not light even one candle on Diwali as the light could be spotted by the Rangers,” he added.About 35 per cent of the villagers who had their friends and relatives in safer places had shifted temporarily from border areas. The rest were at home, but were not allowed to light a single candle or step out of their homes after 5:30 pm.“It was the darkest Diwali this year as we remained inside from 5:30 pm to 6 am. We spent the festival praying for peace on the border,” said Updesh Kumar of SM Pura village in Samba district on the border.

India lacks resources to match Chinese aid to other nations

THE BRICS Summit in Goa had a salutary effect. For too long have people in India been carried away by the illusion that China will show better understanding of India’s strategic imperatives, if only we opened our doors to trade and investment and obliged Beijing, “accommodating” its wishes by diluting our relations with the US. Such illusions about China prevailed, despite the fact that we refrained from voicing concerns about its unprecedented assistance to Pakistan’s exclusively “India-centric” nuclear weapons and missile programmes. President Xi Jinping made it clear in Goa that China would not countenance even any oblique reference to Pakistan’s sponsorship of cross-border terrorism, or its involvement in the Uri attack.  To add insult to injury, China announced its intention to supply Pakistan eight submarines, barely a week after Xi left India! Pakistan has been and remains Beijing’s principal tool in its “strategic containment” of India. China’s Mandarins have also been more than forthcoming in providing military and economic assistance to India’s South Asian neighbours to undermine India’s regional influence. Beijing has also sought to back leaders in South Asia, who are less than friendly to India — most notably recently in Sri Lanka and Nepal. India has to, however, recognise the reality that it just does not have the resources to match Chinese economic assistance to governments in its South Asian neighbourhood and beyond to the shores of Africa. We should also understand the realities that shape Chinese economic assistance worldwide. The Chinese Export Import Bank and the apex China Development Bank provide funding for Beijing’s aid projects, with interest rates generally varying between 2 per cent and 3 per cent.With its foreign exchange reserves now crossing $4 trillion, following double-digit economic growth over a decade, China’s Overseas Development Assistance has averaged around $174 billion annually in recent years. This poses a challenge to the US and Western/OECD aid organisations, including the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. But, unlike the terms of Western assistance, which are largely untied and concessional, Chinese assistance has conditions that give it an exploitative orientation. Chinese assistance is marked by very substantial use of Chinese labour, machinery and equipment, with very little transfer of technology or expertise. As much as 50 per cent of imports required for “aid” projects have to be sourced from China. Moreover, experiences in Africa have shown that while the large number of Chinese workers in infrastructure and mining projects are required to be provided comfortable living conditions, the Chinese are parsimonious in payments to local labour.China’s dependence on imports of oil and gas is steadily growing. Chinese investments and economic assistance in minerals and energy-related projects are simultaneously growing significantly in Africa, the Gulf Region, Central Asia, and Latin America. China is involved in exploration for gold in Eritrea and Zimbabwe, for platinum and diamonds in Zimbabwe and South Africa, for uranium in Niger and aluminum in Egypt. China has secured a $2 billion contract for the Kingfisher oilfield in Uganda. It has built the largest hydropower project in Africa, along the Ethiopia-Sudan border. China’s ability to move swiftly and act decisively in the wake of the shale revolution has led to its securing large investment opportunities in Iraq and Iran in the oil and gas sector. This is reportedly evoking Saudi concern.Closer to India in South Asia, there is growing awareness of the mercantilist elements in so-called Chinese aid, where Sri Lanka realised that the Colombo Port City project was a Chinese rip-off. Likewise, in Myanmar, there is growing resistance to Chinese involvement in mining of precious stones and its callous disregard for environmental considerations in huge projects like the proposed Myitsone dam. Healthy scepticism about Chinese offers of aid is also evident in Bangladesh. During the recent visit of President Jinping to Bangladesh, China agreed to aid 22 projects, amidst calls for careful scrutiny of repayment liabilities. Pakistan received $135 billion of Chinese financing between 2001 and 2014. It is now scheduled to receive $46 billion in financial assistance for its OBOR project. This project has become controversial because it primarily benefits only the dominant Punjab province. It has evoked criticism in both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. The Balochis are already not too pleased by the way their province has received virtually no benefits/royalty from the exploration of gold, silver and copper from the Aynak mine at Chagai Hills, where Pakistan’s nuclear tests were carried out. Moreover, while the Chinese would evidently like the Pakistan army to take over providing facilities and security for the project, the Nawaz Sharif government does not relish the idea. Finally, the IMF has made it clear that the project is, in coming years, going to create new problems on debt repayment and current account deficit, given the way the repayment liabilities are structured.Despite all these factors, India has to recognise that whether in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh or Nepal, the essential political thrust of Chinese economic support is to prop up regimes that are given to being anti-Indian. It is noteworthy that when President Xi was in Dhaka, he met Begum Khaleda Zia (who avoided calling on President Pranab Mukherjee) and even proposed party-to-party links between the CPC and BNP (China recognised Bangladesh in 1976, a year after Sheikh Mujibur Rehman was assassinated). It is evident that India does not have the resources to quantitatively match Chinese assistance even to its South Asian neighbour. But, we need to recognise our relative strengths and weaknesses and firm up our assistance programmes accordingly. We also need to carefully study the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese aid programmes. The agenda of the tripartite India-US-Japan dialogue should be expanded to discuss how best this grouping could pool its resources to meet the challenges posed by the growing economic clout of China. Japan and the US can, in turn, carry out a similar exercise with their OECD partners. Given Chinese hostility, it is imperative for New Delhi to devise a comprehensive strategy to protect and promote its interests across its Indian Ocean neighbourhood and indeed across the entire Indo-Pacific Region.

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, October 24

Fulfilling a long-pending demand, the Centre today amended the electoral rules to allow service voters, including armed forces personnel, to get their postal ballot through electronic means instead of regular post on pilot basis to save valuable time.Under the system, a service voter can now download and print the blank postal ballot paper sent to them electronically, mark their preference and post the filled-up ballot back to their respective returning officers.This would cut short the delay experienced in the present system of two-way transmission of ballot paper by the postal services, official sources said here.The two-way electronic transmission did not find favour with the Election Commission for security and secrecy reasons, the sources added.The Legislative Department under the Ministry of Law and Justice issued a notification on October 21, amending Rule 23 of the Conduct of Elections Rules to enable service voters to cast their vote in elections through the e-postal ballot, an official said.The armed forces personnel serving in remote and border areas would be greatly benefitted since the present system of two-way transmission of ballot paper by the postal services has not been able to meet the expectations of the service voters.The issue was engaging attention of the government and the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence headed by Major General Bhuvan Chandra Khanduri (retd) too was vigorously pursuing the matter.The issue was also brought up before the Supreme Court, pleading for creating effective mechanism for the armed forces personnel and their families to exercise their right to vote easily and effectively.The Election Commission proposed that the categories of voters mentioned in Rule 18 of the Conduct of Election Rules, 1961, might be made eligible for the e-postal ballot system on a pilot basis.

Electoral reform

• Under the system, a service voter can now download and print the blank postal ballot paper sent to them electronically, mark their preference and post the filled-up ballot back to their respective returning officers
• This will cut short the delay experienced in the present system of two-way transmission of ballot paper by the postal services
• The two-way electronic transmission did not find favour with the Election Commission for security reasons

EVER since I left the Valley six years ago, Jamaal never missed an occasion to wish me on any festival, including the Republic and Independence days. In turn, I always wished him on every Eid. Apart from ritual pleasantries, he would often update me on the health of apple trees and roses in the Army compound and the state of horticulture and agriculture in the villages nearby. It seemed as if festivals were just an excuse for us to talk endlessly about plants and trees. Even though the area has always been violence prone, neither did he complain nor showed any interest in talking about such matters.Jamaal was employed as an ad hoc gardener by the Army many years ago, and he became so devoted to his profession, that he thought of nothing else. He distinguished each plant for its colour and size of flowers and taste of its fruits and many other details. I once asked him to plant some tulips, he quipped philosophically: ‘Tulip thode din rehte hain European gulab behtar hai’ (Tulip does not last long, it is better to plant European rose), perhaps he was articulating his view about human relations.A couple of years back, he called me and said: ‘Sir, kul 11 minutes mein sab kuch khatam ho gaya’ (Sir, it was all over in just 11 minutes). Expecting the worst, my heart sank and I enquired what had happened. Almost sobbing, he said: ‘Ole gire aur sab khatam, koi seb nahi, koi gulab nahi bacha’ (hailstorm destroyed the apple and roses). I consoled him as much as I could, but he was angry with God and whispered: ‘Kya fayda dua ka?’ Unable to comfort him, I felt helpless.A few months back, when situation was volatile in Handwara in North Kashmir, I asked Jamaal what he thought was the cause. His reply was cryptic: ‘Kya bataye, yahan sab jhooth bolte hain, bachhon ki padhai zaaya ho rahi hai (What can one say, everyone is a liar, children’s education is suffering). He quickly changed the topic to apples and walnut trees. He seemed upbeat about the prospects of a good crop, although it was too early to forecast the yield. He simply was not interested in discussing violence and unrest. Last time I spoke to him on Eid, in the first week of July, he sounded cheerful and promised me a consignment of apples in September. Since then, the Valley has been on the boil, I have tried to call him many times without success. Between claims and counter-claims over disturbances and violence, my Jamaal is lost somewhere. I don’t even want to talk about Independence Day, Janamashtmi and Eid-ul-Zuha, that have gone by, but my friend, tell me about the apples and roses.

Introduction

          Xi Jinping the current Commander-In-Chief of Chinese Armed Forces has the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) under his full control and is leaving no stone unturned to fulfil his Chinese Dream. Simplistically the Chinese Dream is based on two characteristics, “Strength and Wealth”.  The PLA is the Hard Power of the People’s Republic of China and also has helped the Chinese economy to reach its current state. The Chinese Armed Forces are currently modernising exponentially. They are upgrading their systems and recently introduced reforms for their Armed Forces.

Reforms

Broadly the reforms are to improve theoretical and technological innovation, restructuring of the organisation to fight in an age of information. They are based on the White Paper published in 2015.

    The first aspect is to clarify is that the three new services are the PLA Land Army (PLAA), the PLA Rocket Forces (PLARF) and the PLA Strategic Support Forces (PLASSF). The Land Forces would be the Army Component of the PLA, the PLARF would be the erstwhile Second Artillery of China and the PLASSF would be undertaking aspects pertaining to Cyber Warfare and Outer Space. The PLA Land Army would have a separate Headquarters like the Navy and the Air Force. The PLARF is rechristening of the erstwhile Second Artillery of the PLA. The force is upgraded to the same status as the Navy and Air Force. The overall structure remains the same .The PLASSF is a High Technology force with its focus on Information Warfare. This organisation would focus on Space Operations to include Reconnaissance and Navigational Satellites. Further it would combat Electronic Warfare and Cyber Warfare. The PLASSF puts the PLA in the era of Hi Tech combat forces.  

       Closely following the formation of the three new services was the restructuring of the Central Military Commission (CMC) in mid January 2016. The erstwhile four departments of the CMC have been reconfigured into six functional departments, three commissions and six offices. The six departments are Joint Staff, Political Work, Logistical Support, Equipment Development, Training & Administration Department and National Defence Mobilisation Department. The three Commissions are Discipline Inspection, Politics& Law and Science and Technology Commission. The six offices are the General Office, Administration, Auditing, International Cooperation, Reform & Organisation Structure and Strategic Planning Offices. The orders were given on 10 January 2016.  These departments replace the General Staff, General Political, General Logistics and General Armament Departments.

      The CMC would be would provide the leadership and command over the entire PLA. The entire control of all elements would come under the Chairman of the CMC. In the CMC, the Joint Staff Department would be tasked to carry out operational planning, operational logistics and formulate strategy for undertaking military operations. The Political Work Department would be responsible for the political orientation of the entire Armed Forces. It is pertinent to note that the PLA belongs and comes under the Communist Party Of China and there is a political commissar in each formation, unit, war ship, air base, missile base and training establishments. The Logistics Support Department would be responsible for the overall logistics of the PLA and the Equipment Development Department would deal with Research & Development as also acquisition and maintenance of military equipment. The Training and Administration Department would look after the leadership training of the PLA and the training establishments. The National Defence

Mobilisation Department would boost the quality of the reserve system to enable speedy mobilisation of reserves.

     The three Commissions in the CMC have a significant role to play in the governance of the PLA. First of all the Discipline and inspection Commission will send inspection teams to various Theatre Commands of the PLA to keep a check on the organisational cohesiveness. The Politics & Law Commission would work towards enhancement of military governance and military law. Both these aspects are extremely important in a military set up. The Science and Technology Commission would be applying itself in the fields of Defence Technology. This Commission would integrate developments in the civilian sector and have its accent on self reliance and innovation.

          The affiliated offices are to undertake the office aspects pertaining to the functions of the CMC. The Strategic Planning Office is to improve the Strategic Planning system. The Reform and Organisational structure office would be tasked to undertake military reforms. Military engagement and coordination would be undertaken by the International Military cooperation office. The other offices comprising Audit and Administration would undertake military audit and administration of the organisation of the CMC.

Theatre Commands

     Further China has for a long time been practising War Zone style of undertaking operations since 2008. This primarily means optimising forces available to effect operations in a coherent manner. Often it meant troops of more than one military region undertaking operations together. Keeping this in mind China decided to transform the Seven Military Regions and form five theatre Commands. On 01 February 2016, President Xi Jinping officially inaugurated five theatre Commands representing geographic directions. North, South, East. West and Central. The Northern Command Headquarters is located at Shenyang, the Eastern Command at Nanjing, the Southern Command at Guangzhou, the Western Command at Chengdu and the Central Command at Beijing. The Theatre Commands are ready for Active Defence in comparison to the Military Regions being ready for multi layered defence. The exact boundaries are yet to be promulgated and the assets regarding the PLAN and PLAAF are being decided. All Commanders of the Theatre Commands belong to the Army. As per the Hongkong Press, the North Sea Fleet is to be given to Central Theatre Command, the East Sea Fleet is likely to be allotted to Eastern Theatre Command and the South Sea Fleet is likely to be allotted to Southern Theatre Command. Though the exact boundaries are under consideration a map showing the Theatre Commands is given below.

        

As shown in the map shows that the Northern Command would be dealing with Mongolia, Russia and North Korea. The Central Command would be interested in both the Koreas. Japan and possibly be a reserve for operations being conducted in other regions. The Eastern Command would be focussed on Taiwan. The Southern Command on Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar. The western Command has a large continental border and would deal with India, Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Southern Mongolia. If the maritime threat to India is concerned it would be with the South Sea Fleet likely to be placed under Southern Command which would pose a threat to the Indian Ocean with further modernisation of the Chinese Navy.

Issues which Merit Importance

       On 03 September 2015 Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that the PLA will reduce 300,000 troops. Xi made the announcement during a speech just before a massive military parade in Beijing held to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. This forms a part of the modernisation process where modern organisations call for an optimised rank and file. It is pertinent to note that even after cutting of troops China remains the largest Armed Forces in the World. The cut will be made in a manner so as to cause minimum turbulence. The recruitment process would enlist lesser personnel and those compelled to leave would undergo skill development training to be absorbed in State Owned Enterprises. Further the PLA continues to run a few business organisations despite Zhang Jemin’s directions of 1998. Overall the reforms are a continuation of the Revolution in Military Affairs set up by the PLA after the First Gulf War.

Need For Indian Armed Forces to Note the changes

             . China’s official media continues to publicise articles intended to caution India that China retains the option of initiating military hostilities. Wen Wei Po a Hong Kong based daily owned by the People’s Republic of China with editorial staff from the CCP and controlled by the ruling Politburo Standing Committee, published an article in June 2013, captioned Six Wars to be fought by China in the next 50 years. It was reposted on a Hong Kong web site around middle of September 2013. The details of the authors background is yet to be ascertained the details have been possibly obtained from Chinese defence analysts. The article asserts that China can wipe out past humiliations and regain dignity only after it attains national reunification. The article visualises Six Wars would have to be fought by China in the next 50 years to achieve their goal. The Wars which are visualised are as under:–

• Unification of Taiwan which is expected to be fought between 2020 to 2025.

• Capture of Spratly islands in the South China Sea possibly in the timeline 2025 to 2030.

• Re conquest of Southern Tibet (Arunachal) would possibly be undertaken in the years 2035 to 2040.

• Capture of Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu island between 2040 and 2045.

• Unification of Outer Mongolia between 2045 to 2050.

• Militarily recapture territory lost to Russia between 2055 and 2060.

     The anticipated six wars deal with reclaiming of the Chinese national territories lost since Imperial China was defeated by the British in the Opium

War of 1840-42. The first option that deals with Taiwan states that Taiwan must peacefully unite by 2020 failing which the country should be unified by War which should take place by 2025. This would be a test for the modernised PLA. The war would be difficult in case there is an intervention by USA and Japan. The author feels in such a case the War would last for six months otherwise for three months.

         There would be a pause for two years after reunification of Taiwan. During this period China will send an ultimatum to the countries patrolling the islands in the South China Sea to withdraw with a deadline of 2028. The countries can preserve their investments followed by withdrawal. China anticipates Vietnam and Philippines to oppose the move and both of them will fight with possible assistance from the US. As per the author if concrete results are not attained by negotiations then the best option is for China to attack Vietnam. The reason is obvious as Vietnam is the most powerful country in the region. Victory over Vietnam will scare the rest. While the war with Vietnam goes on the other claimants would adopt a wait and watch policy. China is expected to beat Vietnam as per the author and thus China would establish its suzerainty over the entire Spratly group of islands.

        The third War would be the reconquest of Southern Tibet (Arunachal) in the years 2035 to 2040. The article emphatically states that Arunachal as the only point of conflict between the two countries. It further notes the close relations between India, US, Europe and Russia. It assumes that during this period India would militarily lag behind China. However, war with India would result in victory after sustaining losses.

     Accordingly the best strategy would be to initiate disintegration of the region. China should leave no stone unturned to instigate Assam and Sikkim to fight for independence. The other option is to provide state of the art weaponry to Pakistan which would enable the country to capture Indian part of Kashmir

by 2035 and thereby enable Pakistani control of the entire region. While the fight is on for Kashmir, China should launch a blitz attack to conquer Arunachal. As per the author, India lacks the capability to successfully fight a two front war. However, if this plan cannot be adopted, the other option is to launch a ground offensive to capture Arunachal (Southern Tibet).

                It is pertinent to note that this article may not have emanated from high levels in China’s military establishment, but it iterates an issue often emphasised by the Chinese media that the country will have to ultimately resort to the use of the PLA to settle border issues. Articles of similar nature have been appearing in the Chinese press ever since Review of Asia policy was undertaken in 2011. China currently has clearly stated that its territorial claims are not negotiable and viewing this the Indian Armed Forces have to be prepared for the worst scenario which is a two front war.

      The current Chinese reforms have led to jointness and enabled it to undertake future operations in Cyber Warfare and Outer Space. There is a dire need for the Indian Armed Forces to integrate to stand up to the new reforms undertaken by the PLA. As per these reforms the Western Command of China would face the Indian Army on its Northern and North Eastern borders. Threats from China have to be viewed also from the Maritime angle and in this case the Chinese Southern Command with the South Sea Fleet would be of importance to our country. From our side we have to see a new Force Structure within a decade to match Chinese continental and maritime capabilities. We must understand in the CMC there is a Chief of General Staff to coordinate all operations.

      Currently, we dont have a joint structure to fight a two front war. After the Kargil War a committee under K Subramanian was set up to resolve this issue which submitted its report and the same was reviewed by a Group of Ministers in 2000. To improve jointness, there was need for a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) and integration of the three services. In the 17 years that have elapsed we have established a tri service Headquarters of Integrated Defence Staff (IDS), a tri service command Andaman and Nicobar theatre command and a Strategic Forces Command. There is no jointness of command and control and the three services are operationally independent with limited coordination being undertaken by the Ministry of Defence. To find an answer to the current impasse, the Government had appointed a 14 member task force headed by Shri Naresh Chandra a former bureaucrat on 14 July 2011 to review the unfinished tasks of the Kargil Review Committee and suggest a plan of implementation. The panel completed the task and submitted the report. It is learnt that the Committee has recommended for a Permanent Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee (PCOSC) and joint theatre Commands. There are reports in the print media which state that the Government is possibly going ahead with the proposal of a PCCOSC who would be a four star General. This would be the first step and is likely to take place.

      While this is being processed, being a democratic country, it may be pertinent to note that we must look at the American and the UK experience of integrating their armed forces. The first step is the issue of Defence Policy Guideline. The US Secretary of Defence issues a Defence Policy Guideline which includes national security objectives and policies, the priorities of military missions and the availability of resources. This document is prepared with the advice from the Chairman Joint Chief of Staff. In our case the National Strategic Policy is not issued. At best a generic chapter on National Security Environment is included. Today there is no single point military guidance on strategic matters to the Defence Minister and Prime Minister. On most of the occasions it is the Defence Secretary who is coordinating military issues. This is certainly incorrect for a country fighting insurgency and dealing with sensitive borders. Presently there is no unified action and a lot depends on individual perception of a situation which often leads to lack of optimisation of resources in dealing with critical situations.

Need for a joint structure

                    The present organisational structure is not suitable from the security point of view. Our nation is fighting insurgents and in a worst case scenario should be prepared for a conflict on two fronts. With each service viewing from its own perspective, the nation will not be able to take a unified pro active stand with panache and precision. We have currently 18 Service Commands. To respond effectively to any situation there is a need for a unified Theatre Command Headquarters under a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). All of us should look at national objectives, rather than guard our turf and procrastinate on this critical subject. The organisational structure should have the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) with the joint commands responsible for the operations and the Service Headquarters would be responsible for acquisition of equipment and training.

        The role and mission of the CDS would be the principal military adviser to the Government of India. He would have direct access to the Raksha Mantri and the Prime Minister. The three Service Chiefs would function under him. There would be broadly two types of theatre commands. Northern, Western and South Western Commands would comprise of Army and Air Force units where as Eastern, Southern, Andaman& Nicobar, Strategic Forces and Training Commands would be tri service in composition. This will enable us to undertake network centric warfare with speed and precision. The inter service structure would improve our logistics and improve our acquisition of equipment which would enable us to modernise and thereby enhance our capability development. This process has to be undertaken by Parliament as the services would try and guard their turf. In the current situation if we accept the post of PCCOSC, he would be able to currently look after the following:-

• Andaman and Nicobar Command.

• Strategic Forces Command.

• Acquisition of all equipment of the three Services

• Possibly handle the three new Commands which would be Cyber, Special Forces and Outer Space.

            Overall this organisation would be too little to make a substantial difference. In our present context a War against China which involves the Eastern portion of the country, we have the Eastern Command of the Army located at Kolkata, the Eastern Command of the Navy located at Vishakapatnam and the Eastern Command of the Air Force located at Shillong. In the current environment despite a PCCOSC each Service would be fighting its own War. This is inappropriate and there is a need for joint theatre Commands. Without jointness it is not possible to even handle internal situations.

Way Ahead

       The Armed Forces need a joint structure and this has to be a political decision. The United States is now planning to proceed to Goldwater-Nichols Act 2.0. Senator John McCain the Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee has started the process of transforming the Jointness which is in vogue since 1986. We also need to visualise our requirement and undertake jointness at the earliest to ensure operational effectiveness.

           India would have to be prepared for a two front war and internal problems. The Government would need a Chief of Defence Staff who would have the following Joint Theatre Commands:-

• Northern Command, Western Command and South Western Command comprising of Army and Air Force.

• Eastern Command, Southern Command and Andaman& Nicobar Command comprising all the services.

     Apart from these there would be the Strategic Forces Command, Cyber Warfare Command, Special Forces Command and Outer Space Command. These organisations must look at our operational challenges and should not be based on current requirements of the Services. The Raksha Mantri who has signed the LEMOA with the US and back from a visit to China must study their organisations and appoint a Committee to look into all papers on the subject and make a realistic assessment. This should be submitted in a year to the Government and should have no extraneous consideration.

          By 2030 the Indian Armed Forces with their Joint Theatre Commands should be able to be a vibrant force capable of fighting a two front war and dominate our Area of responsibility from the Persian Gulf to the straits of Malacca.nclusion

            There is a need to seriously look at the reforms undertaken by the PLA. The newly formed Joint Theatre Commands would be in place by 2020. Viewing China’s timelines it is essential that we wake up and improve our Force Structure to meet the Chinese continental and maritime challenge.

READERS COMMENTS

Dear Sirs,

NEED FOR INDIAN ARMED FORCES TO RESPOND TO PLA REFORMS  By  Major General P K Chakravorty

1.  It indeed is a seminal work of a very high order. Normally, I do not read such lengthy Dissertations but it is due my personal respect for the love you have for the country.

 

2. India’s biggest strength is Democracy and its biggest enemy is Democracy itself. India’s Political Leadership publically fears so much over Military take over but its real time is spent on SAUDAGRS/Comrades– continuous sniping that no Military is required for Regime Change.

 

3. The Chinese have found a simple solution for it. In a Democracy there is a separation of Power between Executive, Legislature and Judiciary with nominal titular  Head, the President.

 

Chinese have separated the Military and combined the Executive, the Legislative and Judiciary, both come under the Communist Party with Common Executive President for both and the same person is the boss of the Communist Party. Thus Xi is the Supreme Leader of China in all its facets.

 

Tragically, the Indian TRISHUL is busy destroying each other. India has the option of revisiting its Constitution now or after it is BALKANISED.

 

4. General Sahib talks of 6 Wars the Chinese are preparing to win by 2050. He has missed one critical point. In Chinese vocabulary, Peace and War are a continuum. Already by 2016, most of their Wars have been won by Economic Interdependence and by strife within & their 6th Columnist Constituencies. Indian Areas of Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Bhutan are already de-facto their vassal constituencies. One Road and One Belt and CPEC would give them Indian Kashmir. Assam and NE are already destabilized via Bangladesh and Myanmar. Nepal is neutralized. They are supplied with Chinese Arms and funding by the West.

 

5. Russia has already given their Far East to 2 Million Chinese working there. Along with that goes Outer Mongolia to Chinese Inner Mongolia. New Taiwanese President is making a bee line to China for talks and prosperity.  With US not willing to put its boots down in and around South China Sea, Central China Sea and Sea of Japan, the numerical strength of Chinese HUNS is very large every where. Who is going to get the Chinese to vacate them.

 

6. General Sahib suggestions are similar to the beaten trail of late K Subramanium. Jointness is asked for but the suggestions have no flavour of Jointness, as the 3 Armed Forces mutually distrust among themselves and are putting road blocks for each other to the glee of HUKMARAN. All playing into the Chinese Time Frames of their 2050 World Order.

7. Goa would have shown the limits of Indian Diplomacy which does not want to walk the Talks with Military. And China and Russia have thwarted all Indian Diplomatic initiatives and which have been unfruitful on Terrorism . The History shows that Gains are achieved only on the Ground by Military, and then must be held by wise Leadership. World does not give anything to a Democracy Weakling.

With best regards,

Commander Prem P Batra Retiredgen

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Moscow, October 13

President Vladimir Putin on Thursday described India as Russia’s “privileged strategic partner”.”India is Russia’s especially privileged strategic partner,” said Putin in an interview ahead of his visit to Goa to attend the BRICS Summit.(Follow The Tribune on Facebook; and Twitter @thetribunechd)”Cooperation between our countries is making good headway in all areas on the basis of strong traditions of friendship, trust and mutual respect,” Putin said in response to questions from IANS.Putin said Russia remained India’s leading supplier of advanced weapons and defence technology as the two countries have been active military partners.”Our countries actively collaborate in the military technical field. Russia remains in the lead in terms of both direct supplies of most advanced weapons and military equipment and conducting joint researches with India as well as producing goods for military purposes,” Putin told IANS in an interview.”The construction of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile and the development of a new, fifth generation fighter aircraft are mong the successful joint projects,” Putin said in response to questions ahead of his visit to Goa to attend the BRICS Summit.He said many of the Russian projects in India not only have commercial importance, but also play a significant social and economic role for the economies of the two countries.Such projects “harmoniously fit in the new Indian industrialisation programme” of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Putin said, referring to Modi’s “Make in India” initiative.
Read more at http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/india-is-russia-s-privileged-strategic-partner-putin/308981.html#XQzBZbF2Ez44q4B8.99