Monthly Archives: August 2018

Ibrahim Mohamed Solih Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s win in Maldives spells the defeat of pro-China elements that steered the country away from India’s traditional influence ,

How does an island nation of 400,000 inhabitants, tucked not too far off the coastline from   southern India, just a meter above sea level and threatening to go under water with the swell of rising oceans due to climate change, assume such geopolitical importance that its national election comes so avidly under the scanner of the international community? It’s a different issue that its football team has also just recently defeated the Indian football eleven in the South Asian football tournament,exemplifying the David and Goliath syndrome which exists in the India- Maldives relationship. The recently concluded Maldivian election where 89.2 per cent of the electorate turned up at the polling booths, threw up a major surprise as the incumbent President Abdullah Yameen, known to be a hard-nosed dictator, was defeated by a coalition of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and the Jumhoree Party under the leadership of Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, by a fairly large margin. Mohammad Nasheed, the former president,  had been disqualified from membership of any political party due to the criminal and anti-national charges that Yameen brought against him. Solih’s victory spells the return of effective democracy and the defeat of the pro-China elements that for the last four years had steered the Maldives away from the traditional influence enjoyed by India as the dominant power of South Asia. This is as far as the political scenario is being discussed here although it needs to be mentioned that India was perhaps as surprised by the result as many others were around the world. Why are all the big powers and the sub continental powers, India and Pakistan, so interested in the Maldives?

There are three significant things about the Maldives: its location, real estate, and ideological orientation. From a strategic security perspective, it actually sits atop the sea lanes of communication (SLsOC) which emanate from the Suez Canal and the Persian Gulf and head towards the Straits of Malacca. It is well known that 70 percent of the world’s trade and almost 80 percent of China’s energy requirements are transported through shipping resources along these SLsOC. The 1200 islands with about 200 occupied make up the nation. Apart from the large Indian ports of Cochin and Chennai and the Sri Lankan ports of Colombo, Hambantota and Trincomalee , there are no ports between the Gulf of Aden  and Straits of Malacca unless we also count Port Blair within this scope. Male, the capital of the Maldives is a small port. Kulhudhufushi, Hithadhoo and Thilafushi are other ports. In the southern atoll of Gaadhoo, China has been seeking to build a port with much of the physical clearance work having been done. Its location makes it an ideal point in the Indian Ocean to have a base as it is mid-way between the eastern and western extremities of the ocean and suitable as a replenishment point for a naval fleet which wishes dominance in the Indian Ocean.

A large land mass is considered a major asset but in the case of the Maldives, it is the minuscule size which works to advantage. A small country with an underdeveloped economy hugely dependent on tourism would always like to have benign benevolence of a big state. The Chinese have sent tourists in hordes, something India should have done to a greater extent. China’s romance with Maldives began as soon as it realised the two fold advantage the islands held. First, the ideal mid point for its new maritime silk route and, second, the scope it offered to drive the string of pearls strategy against India. The first helps in the ambitious outreach and establishment of an overseas network of states to ultimately sustain the Chinese economy. The second is to offset India’s natural maritime advantage of being located at the virtual apex of the Indian Ocean Rim (IOR) and in a position to control entry and exit from the Straits of Malacca. The latter in the context of China is often referred as the Malacca Dilemma. China is not a country which likes to remain hamstrung by geographic disadvantages. Thus the Great Game of the Indian Ocean being played by it aims at a series of maritime facilities in the IOR from Djibouti to Malacca and an enclosing string of states, in India’s neighbourhood, under  obligation to China.

The strategic intent is threefold — outreach, security of Chinese maritime interests and hemming India through limited coercion. The Maldivian location and territory forms one of the most important points on the canvas of this strategy and serves more than one purpose in China’s purpose. In the last five or six years China has made great strides in developing this strategy through its Belt & Road Initiative.  China’s successful inroads here send its desired message to other states in the Indian neighbourhood. Equally, the failure of the Chinese camp in the election this time can be exploited effectively by India to send a reverse message that China’s hold in India’s neighbourhood can only be marginal. For India, the Maldivian election should also strongly message that India holds it own in its strategic neighbourhood.

The earlier mention of ideology as one of the issues of strategic significance stems from the well-known fact that the largest ratio of foreign fighters of the Islamic State (ISIS) as compared to a nation’s population base came from the Maldives. It means that Islamic radicalism has penetrated the tiny nation far more than is imagined. The role of both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is important in this connection.

The Saudi connection is difficult to explain except for the worldwide support to the promotion of its brand of Sunni Wahabi ideology; no specific strategic gain appears evident unlike in Pakistan and Afghanistan where its target is the balancing of Iran’s Shia ideology. However, for Pakistan, its collusion with China perhaps obliges it to help promote this ideology so close to India’s southern states. The potential for destabilisation of India’s South remains a threat and a contribution towards China’s hold over the islands.

For now it’s advantage India but translating that to real strategic advantage will take much more for India than just being an interested bystander.

The author commanded the 15 Corps in J&K and is now the Chancellor, Central University of Kashmir. Views expressed are persona

Our Correspondent

Fazilka, October 28

The Shaheedon Ki Samadhi Committee, Asafwala, Fazilka, in association with Saraswati Devi Charitable Trust honoured Veer Naris (war widows) and injured soldiers in a programme held at Asafwala War Memorial, 7 km from here, this evening.

Hundreds of residents thronged the memorial to pay tributes to the martyrs.

Vijay Kumar Chopra, former Chairman of the Press Trust of India and Chief Editor, Punjab Kesari group of newspapers, Brig Gaurav Sharma, Fazilka Deputy Commissioner Manpreet Singh, War Memorial Committee president Sandeep Ghilhotra and Baldev Dhuria, chairman of the trust, honoured Veer Naris and war veterans.

All laid wreaths at the memorial and paid obeisance at the sanctum sanctorum where the ashes of the martyrs have been kept. The memorial was raised in the memory of 209 soldiers and JCOs who fought the 1971 India-Pakistan war in the Fazilka sector. The memorial is being maintained by the Shaeedon Ki Samadhi Committee since 1971.

Veer Naris were given bicycles, hot plates, quilts, wheel chair and other household material. Injured soldiers Jagroop Singh and Lakhbir Singh were also honoured.

Twenty girl students, who completed basic free computer training in the Amogh Computer Centre being run in the war memorial complex, were also given certificates.

Ajay Banerjee
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, October 22

Having killed armed intruders from Pakistan along  the Line of Control (LoC) in Sunderbani sector of Jammu and Kashmir on Sunday, the Army has issued a ‘stern warning’ to the Pakistan Army asking it to restrain terrorists from operating from its soil.

Sources in New Delhi said since the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMO) of both sides had spoken in May and agreed to uphold the November 2003 ceasefire, there had been seven infiltration bids foiled by the Army in which 23 terrorists had been killed.

The Army has been maintaining utmost restraint to uphold the ceasefire at the LoC despite regular provocative actions from across the border, authorities here claimed.

The Pakistan Army is trying to send terrorists across the border. Army sources cited internal reports to suggest that a large number of terrorists were waiting at launch pads in the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) desperate to infiltrate before the onset of snow.

Also, the Pakistan Army has been informed through established communication channels to take the bodies of the hostile Pakistani nationals killed at the LoC on Sunday, sources said.

Two of the intruders were wearing combat fatigues. ‘Established communication channels’ is a military term for existing telephonic contacts that connect military commanders on either side.

Around 1.30 pm on Sunday, five to six Pakistani armed intruders crossed the LoC and fired at an Army patrol in the Sunderbani sector of Jammu region. Three Army jawans were killed and another was injured in the unprovoked cross-border action by Pakistan. During the ensuing crossfire two intruders were killed. Their identity could not be ascertained, sources in the Army said.

Questioning PM Modi’s silence over the deal, senior Congress leader Anand Sharma claimed that only the prime minister was aware that the offset contracts would not be given to Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

Continuing with its campaign against the government over the Rafale deal, the Congress Sunday claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was directly involved in it, adding that he had much to hide about it. Questioning Modi’s silence over the deal, senior Congress leader Anand Sharma claimed that only the prime minister was aware that the offset contracts would not be given to Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

“It was his (Modi’s) decision. Only he was privy to what he was going to do,” Sharma said, addressing a press conference at the party office here.

It was expected that the prime minister would speak on this issue of national importance, but he continued to remain silent while making tall claims about his government, the Congress leader said. “The prime minister has much to hide in the Rafale deal. His silence raises fundamental questions, because he is directly complicit and personally accountable for it,” he alleged.

Read | Rafale a textbook case of offences under corruption Act: Prashant Bhushan

Claiming that the Rafale deal was the biggest scam in the history of the country, Sharma reiterated his party’s demand for setting up a Joint Parliamentary Committee to look into it.

The former Union minister also questioned Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s visit to France, during which she will take stock of the progress of French firm Dassault Aviation supplying 36 Rafale jets to the Indian Air Force under the Rs 58,000-crore deal.

Sharma maintained that there was a hike in the price of the fighter aircraft India was buying from France and asserted that the prime minister needed to clear many doubts about the deal that had been raised. He said more details of the deal would emerge if a forensic audit of it was carried out.

The Congress has been claiming that the aircraft will cost significantly more than what the previous United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government was negotiating. The opposition party has also been demanding answers from the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government as to why HAL was not involved in the deal as finalised during the UPA regime.

In a major move, top commanders of the Army have approved a mega plan to usher in transformative reforms in the 1.3 million-strong force.

In a major move, top commanders of the Army have approved a mega plan to usher in transformative reforms in the 1.3 million-strong force which will include restructuring its officer cadre, bringing down age of key commands, arresting rising revenue expenditure and “right-sizing” the force.

The decision to go ahead with the long-pending reforms initiative and make the force operationally versatile was taken at the ongoing Army Commanders’ Conference (ACC), an apex level biannual conclave which deliberates on key policy initiatives and operational matters, officials said.

Army sources said the reform measures will be implemented in a “phased manner and with a sense of urgency”.

The week-long conference, being chaired by Army Chief Gen. Bipin Rawat, began on October 9. Besides operational and internal administrative issues, it held wide-ranging deliberations on various security challenges facing the country including along the borders .

Officials said commanders decided to implement the reform measures with specific time-lines while agreeing to carry out “360 degrees evaluation” of various steps and, if required, going for course-corrections.

The Army headquarters had instituted four studies with an overall aim to enhance the operational and functional efficiency of the force, optimise budget expenditure, facilitate modernisation and address aspirations.

Army Spokesperson Col Aman Anand said the commanders’ conference has concluded that “the studies will be implemented progressively in a phased manner”.

“The phases will comprise requisite refinements of the studies making them pragmatic for implementation. It has also been decided that all operational aspects of the studies will be validated through test bedding them in exercises,” he said.

The first study on ‘re-organisation and right-sizing of the Indian Army’ was focused on the operational structures to make the force efficient and future-ready by taking into account the operational situation on western and northern borders, the spokesperson said.

The second study was on ‘re-organisation of the Army headquarters with an aim to bring in “integration and preclude the redundancies”.

“Over a period of time, with emerging scenarios, new structures have emerged and measures to integrate and synergise the same is underway,” he said.

The third study was on ‘cadre review of officers’ and its focus was to recommend how to carry out reorganisation and restructuring to meet the aspirations of the officers’ cadre.

There was indication that the study examined a number of radical steps including abolishing the rank of brigadier.

The fourth study on ‘review of terms of engagement of rank and file’ was aimed at harnessing the higher life expectancy and ensuring younger profile of key commands and motivation of the personnel.

Officials said the aim of the reform initiative is to ready a larger talent pool for crucial tasks and bringing down the age of those commanding key formations.

“The collegium further deliberated on enhancing linguistic skill in the Indian Army. The necessity and methodology to enhance expertise in Indian and international languages has been established,” Col Anand said.

He said the commanders’ conference has comprehensively deliberated on all aspects of extant security dynamics, emerging security scenarios and enhancement of combat edge over potential adversaries.

Tribune News Service
Srinagar, October 12

The police and the Army have decentralised the anti-militancy operations in the Valley with more coordination at the top level to accomplish the mission to restore peace in Kashmir.

“The coordination level has been decentralised to the battalion level, district level and the police station level,” Additional Director General of Police (ADGP) Munir Khan told The Tribune.

He said policies were framed at the highest level with the complete cooperation of the Army and “then the directions are executed at grass-roots level”. “The policy is decided on the basis of feedback from the ground level,” he said.

Khan, who has been the brain behind this strategy, said trust was reposed among the doers in the police force and the ones who could work in tandem with the Army in a better fashion to achieve the results on the ground “for retrieving peace”.

“We believe in a simple thesis that the militants have no business to disturb peace in Kashmir, and we are here to break their anti-peace moves,” Khan said.

“It is not our individual fight against individuals. It is a fight about peace versus violence and to categorise our efforts as violence versus violence is absurd,” Khan said.

At present when elections are being conducted in the state, the job of the police becomes very critical. But the police are determined to work with the public and insulate it from subversive elements. This cooperation, sources said, had helped the state police in maintaining a check on violence during the elections.

There were 43 deaths in the 2004-2005 municipal polls, and this time the effort by the police has helped maintain the law and order situation. “I give credit to the men on the ground and I stand by them even during operations,” Khan said.

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, October 2

Leader of United Sikh Movement Capt Channan Singh Sidhu (retd) has categorically denied that he ever met Justice Ranjit Singh (retd) and AAP leader Sukhpal Singh Khaira or that he had any links with the Congress.

In August, Akali Dal president Sukhbir Singh Badal had alleged on the floor of the House that the report of the inquiry commission had been “scripted” at the farmhouse of Capt Sidhu. He had distributed call records, claiming those to be of the above mentioned leaders, the chairman of the Commission and two ministers. These, it was alleged, synchronised with the tower located near the farmhouse of the United Sikh Movement leader.

Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh had, however, rubbished this claim.

Sidhu has categorically denied that he had anything to do with the report of the Justice Ranjit Singh Commission on 2015 sacrilege incidents. “Why would a retired judge of a High Court come to me for advice on the report or get it vetted from me? I am a retired defence officer and do not know the finer law points like him. I also do not have any friendly relations with the ministers, as claimed by Badal. He has been talking through his hat. His men came and just shot pictures of my farmhouse and concocted the whole story,” he maintained.

Capt Sidhu said he knew Capt Amarinder Singh and had even campaigned for him, but had never met him after he became the Chief Minister.

He also refuted allegations levelled by Sukhbir regarding his “proximity” to radical leaders, while pointing to the “drug taint on the Badals and interests in transport, aviation and hospitality business”.

Along with India, the US over the years has grown its network adding other countries in the region to its traditional allies of Japan, South Korea and Australia. iStock

Washington, October 18

India’s growing nervousness over China’s behaviour in the region played a pivotal role in bringing it closer to the US, according to former US defence secretary Ashton Carter.

Carter, who in his various capacities at the Pentagon including as defence secretary played a key role in cementing India-US defence relationship, said in a major policy paper on Wednesday that China stands isolated and India has emerged as a key and dependable ally of the United States in the region.

India, he said, is an example of how the strategic benefits of the principled, inclusive network can overcome hesitation.

“Once deeply skeptical of US influence in South Asia, India became a more active participant in regional security during my two years as Secretary of Defence than at any time in its history,” he said.

Currently director of Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School, Carter said many factors led to India’s decision to seek closer ties with the US: its growing economic and political confidence, its assessment of the strategic situation on the subcontinent, and the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014.

“Growing nervousness over China’s behaviour from the South China Sea to the Himalayan border region played a pivotal role,” Carter said.

Under Modi, India was pursuing two major initiatives. One called ‘Make in India’ stressed development of indigenous technology and manufacturing.

“I called the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) our ‘handshake’ with Modi’s technology and industrial policy. India was also seeking to grow beyond its historic preoccupation with its neighbour Pakistan and follow a broader ‘Act East’ policy,” he wrote.

“At the same time, of course, we were looking to extend the Pacific Rebalance to the west. The result was something I referred to as the ‘second handshake’.

“The two handshakes together forge a partnership with the potential to be as important to our two nations and to the region’s network as our alliances with Japan, South Korea and Australia,” Carter said.

Along with India, the US over the years has grown its network adding other countries in the region to its traditional allies of Japan, South Korea and Australia.

Countries like Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia also strengthened their commitments to the US-led network, he said.

“Clearly, the network is growing and strengthening. China, meanwhile, stands virtually alone,” Carter said.

“As I sometimes ask my students at Harvard Kennedy School ‘How many dependable allies does China have in the Asia-Pacific?’ Unless you think Kim Jong-Un is dependable, the correct answer is ‘zero’. This is a testament to wise US policy, to Chinese missteps and more than anything to the powerful idea of a principled network that bestows security and prosperity,” he said.

At the same time, Carter said that this progress does not mean that the rebalance to the Pacific was an unbroken chain of successes.

“If China has chosen isolation over partnership, the United States, too, has a choice. The Asian security network has served our interests well, and it can continue, but only if the US continues to believe in it.

“I fear our nation has lost confidence in the network approach. Over the last three presidential administrations, including the current one, we have struggled economically, diplomatically and militarily to muster coherent support for the principled, inclusive network,” Carter said.

Without US leadership and support, the network will be replaced by another, parallel network China is seeking to erect, he cautioned.

The China-proposed network would include such initiatives as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (IAAB) and One Belt One Road (OBOR), both of which would be detrimental to US interests, he said.

The IAAB, a potential rival to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, would not match the high standards of the WB and IMF in relation to governance, environmental and other safeguards, and OBOR is likely to extent China’s political influence more than it extends actual property, Carter said.

“The parallel network proposed by China would serve China’s interests, replacing principle with brute force and inclusion with dominion,” he added. PTI