If one has to go by Imran Khan’s statements, after the establishment of his near certain future status as prime minister of Pakistan, most analysts in India would dismiss them as platitudes. We have heard much of these before, but not to be missed is the fact that early enough, Imran has expressed some concerns on Jammu and Kashmir. If these had been about alluding to potential peace and measures he would take towards promoting it, they may have probably reverberated quite positively in India. But what he spoke could be considered as stepping on Indian toes rather early. To have a measure of what may lie in store for the situation in Jammu and Kashmir in the future, we need to briefly delve into trends of the immediate past.

Imran Khan’s first speech was on 26 July 2018, coincidentally the anniversary of India’s victory over the Pakistan Army at the Kargil heights, an event which had completely fractured even the remnants of trust between the two countries. Over the last 19 years, Pakistan has given India little reason to restore any trust. Attempts by its political leadership to mend fences have invariably been scuttled by the all-pervading presence of the Pakistan Army. So that’s two elements that play a role in the India-Pakistan relationship with specific reference to Jammu and Kashmir – the Pakistan Army and the trust deficit. The third is the idea that by promoting calibrated violence in Jammu and Kashmir and sponsoring separatism, Pakistan can keep India on the back foot; the subset of this is an international campaign to paint India red on the issue of human rights in Jammu and Kashmir in an attempt to keep the issue alive in the eyes of the international community.

So is there anything Imran Khan is likely to do to dilute these issues? His election (if considered free and fair) cannot escape the stigma of the army’s support; if not by direct intervention, then at least, the deep influence it ensured through coercion of other parties. To build that partnership with the Pakistan Army, Imran Khan had to undergo a serious makeover from the international playboy image to one of a radical Islamist, fetching him titles such as Taliban Khan and Jihadi Khan. The promotion of Islamism (a euphemism for Islamic radicalism) has long been the Pakistan Army’s strategy to fight in Jammu and Kashmir through proxy using the jihadi route. It went wrong when some jihadis started to target Pakistan itself, but that has been largely corrected through hard internal security operations, against the so called ‘unfriendly jihadis’, where human rights were the last consideration. With all this, is there any likelihood that Imran Khan will go against the interests of the Pakistan Army which wishes to perpetuate its hold over Pakistan’s foreign and security policy and still retains another strain of radicals – ‘friendly jihadis’, to execute that.

Of course, it is not as if the arrival of Imran Khan is going to immediately lead to a drastic increase in attempts at enhancement of levels of violence at the LoC or the hinterland. However, an indicator that he continues to believe in Kashmiri separatism and will work towards that end is likely to give encouragement to elements in Kashmir to increase their pace of activities and work counter to our efforts to mainstream Kashmir’s society. The common thread still remains the Pakistan Army, which essentially orchestrated the rise of Imran Khan because the other mainstream parties got bolder as they experienced power for a longer duration. So, unless Imran can break out of the shackles of the Pakistan Army early enough, nothing is going to change as far as Pakistan’s India policy and specifically the Jammu and Kashmir policy is concerned.

Are there any chinks in this strategy, or the conditions which support it? Possibly three, with very slim openings. First are the strictures that the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has placed on Pakistan just a few weeks before the election while grey listing it. Pakistan is required to showcase measures it has undertaken to reduce or eliminate the financial networks for the support to terror links. It is well understood that its economy is now approaching a situation where a bailout may be necessary by international financial institutions; a bailout effort would be linked to the FATF strictures. It will therefore need to get more serious about displaying its intent of reining in all sponsored terror elements that it controls while targeting India and Afghanistan. However, much will depend upon India’s ability to network and dilute the large international support groups that Pakistan has been able to get on its side through constant lobbying over many years. It is through these networks that Pakistan has always escaped more serious targeting and sanctions from the international community.

The second slim opening is with relation to China, which has warmly welcomed the election of Imran Khan. China has invested a substantial amount of money in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in the hope that its efforts to reach the Indian Ocean through a safe and stable corridor will eventually fructify. That vision does not appear to be in the process of realisation, given Pakistan’s restive internal security situation. With a reset underway as far as Sino-Indian relations are concerned, China could be the one entity which could exercise greater influence towards a corresponding reset in India-Pakistan relations. It is unlikely to happen through an initiative from within Pakistan and will have to be externally driven with many nudges and pushes.

An economic collapse of Pakistan is the last thing China would wish to see, and to that end, it could play an important role to make the Pakistan leadership see the light as far as the positives of co-operation with India are concerned. This is unlikely to happen in a hurry as Pakistan’s India policy is too deeply embedded and linked to the interests of the Pakistan Army.

The third one is a shot in the dark. The more virulently anti-India jihadi elements that made attempts at political mainstreaming have not succeeded. Can this change their relationship with the Pakistan deep state? Perhaps just placing them in cold storage could be an option for Pakistan, which will also meet its needs for projecting a straighter face to the FATF. Weeding them out at this stage will be risky and unlikely to be palatable to a new government. That could at best be a temporary reprieve.

With some emerging order in Jammu and Kashmir with Governor’s rule, the Pakistan deep state could well opt for attempts to calibrate the situation to an upward spiral of violence both at the LoC and the hinterland while blaming India squarely, a game it is adept at. That would quite easily scuttle any fresh ideas that Imran Khan may have and get him more aligned with the Army’s strategy.

The author is a retired lieutenant general and former general officer commanding 15 and 21 Corps

Jaipur, July 18: This case has all the makings of a huge racket. Under the scanner of the Rajasthan ATS are over 3,000 gun licences that were allegedly issued in the name of Army personnel during their stint in the troubled state of Jammu and Kashmir. The ATS has now asked for the names of the personnel to be verified by the Army. ATS sources tell OneIndia that a gang that procures weapons illegally may have used the name of Army personnel. Representational Image It all began with Operation Jubaida, in which the Rajasthan ATS arrested 52 people after it was found that they had got gun licences issued from different districts in Jammu and Kashmir. It was also found that at least 3,367 gun licences were procured by using names of the Army personnel. It was also found that all the licences were issued by the respective Deputy Commissioners over the past decade. The ATS also found that no records were maintained for the same. Response awaited: The ATS had written letters to the Army, Indian Air Force, Navy, Border Security Force, CRPF, NCC, RPF, NDRF and the Coast Guard. While the ATS received a response from most, the Army submitted a list of 375 personnel. ATS officials say that the Army list however did not have the time period. The ATS says that the list needs to be more comprehensive and hence it had sent out another request to the Army. The ATS says it would need the entire list of personnel and also the time period of when the personnel had served in Jammu and Kashmir. This is a case which has major security implications and hence needs to be cracked, the ATS officer also said. The Navy on the other hand informed the ATS that out of the 26 personnel, only 14 cases were genuine. The ATS is now finding out how the remaining persons posed as Navy officials and secured the licence. In the IAF list, the credentials of 17 out of the 39 were found to be genuine. Out of the 548 personnel from the BSF, records for 471 were received of which cases of only 336 personnel were found to be correct. In the CRPF list out of the 424, 237 were correct. In the other lists, only 154 of the 387 personnel were found to be correct. Larger nexus: ATS officials say that this is a huge racket. It appears as though the names of many personnel have been picked at random and gun licences sourced in their names. Under the scanner are also those officials in J&K who could be hand in glove with this syndicate. Once we receive all the information, we could probe further into the matter, the official also added. This racket is rampant in Jammu and Kashmir and in the month of March 2018, the Jammu police busted a fake gun licence racket. Investigations led to the police recovering 52 fake gun licences and several blank licence forms. It was found that the accused persons were preparing both fake and forged gun licences by using the stamps of Army officials and those in the civil administration. The police conducted raids and arrested two persons in connection with this case. They were identified ass Taranjeet Singh and Satinder Singh, both residents of Jammu. The police had also recovered stamps of the Army and civil administration.

Read more at: https://www.oneindia.com/india/operation-jubaida-how-3367-gun-licences-were-procured-in-the-name-of-indian-army-personnel-2737306.html

Tribune News Service

, July 13Jammu

Northern Command chief Lt Gen Ranbir Singh underscored the importance of science and technology in attaining self-sufficiency in developing future technologies in India.He said the Army as an institution had vast opportunities to pursue various fields of science and technology.Lt Gen Ranbir Singh said this while delivering a penultimate lecture during the department of science and technology-sponsored “Innovation in Science Pursuit for Inspired Research” internship camp at Shri Mata Vaishno Devi University in Katra on Friday.This five-day camp, in which 322 young interns from all 10 districts of Jammu participated, concluded at the Katra university on Friday.Interacting with the participants, he highlighted the importance of such initiatives in ensuring that India attains self-sufficiency in developing future technologies on its own and its role in feeding the ‘Make in India’ programme.Speaking on the occasion, Vice Chancellor Sanjeev Jain said in a short span of time, the university had made a mark at the national level through its state-of-the-art infrastructure, highly qualified faculty and motivated students.The valedictory function of the camp was addressed by A Mukhopadhyay, adviser and scientist, department of science and technology, Government of India, who inspired the students to become nation builders by pursuing various challenging problems being faced by the society in the field.

Vijay Mohan

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, July 4

The Border Security Force’s (BSF) air wing will be back to its full strength after several years with six Mi-17 helicopters returning from Russia following a major overhaul, giving a much-needed fillip to air support for anti-Naxal operations and internal security duties. “The helicopters would be re-joining the fleet in July,” BSF Director General, KK Sharma, told The Tribune during his visit to Chandigarh. “They had been sent to Russia for their periodic overhaul,” he added.The air wing’s mandate includes logistic air support to Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) under the Home Ministry, anti-Naxal and counter-insurgency operations, air maintenance of remote border outposts, casualty evacuation, disaster relief operations as well as VVIP transport. A large number of battalions from various CAPFs are deployed for combating Left-Wing Extremism and helicopters provide them an important support element.The BSF, the only CAPF to have an air wing, has a mixed fleet of fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft comprising one Embraer 135 business jet, two ageing HS-748 Avro aircraft, a Cheetah, six Mi-17 1V, eight Mi-17 V5 and six Dhruv helicopters. A King Air light aircraft operated by it had crashed in 2015. The aircraft operate from several airbases across the country.The air wing, set up in 1969, has in the recent past faced issues of manpower as well as technical support. Earlier, the BSF was entirely dependent on air crew drawn from the Air Force, but it has now started to induct its own pilots.

Tribune News Service

Jammu/Rajouri, June 16

Mohammad Hanief, the grief-stricken and distraught father of Rifleman Aurangzeb, who was abducted and later killed by militants on Thursday, said his family was ready to sacrifice for the nation. He said the Tricolour must fly in Kashmir.Amid patriotic slogans, the braveheart was laid to rest with full Army honours at his native Salani village in Poonch district on Saturday. Despite the fact that it was Eid, hundreds of people came to the village from far-flung areas to attend his last rites. The body draped in the Tricolour was first airlifted to Jammu and then to the Sagra Army helipad near Aurangzeb’s village.“My son sacrificed his life for the nation and kept his promise. I was in the Army and my elder son is in the Army too. My third son is studying engineering in Mumbai. Our family is ready to sacrifice our lives for the nation. My sons were coming home for Eid, but those ‘lootere (referring to militants) didn’t let it happen,” he can be heard saying in a video that has gone viral on social media.Rifleman Aurangzeb of 44 Rashtriya Rifles was abducted and killed by militants in Pulwama district when he was on his way home to celebrate Eid on June 14. He was part of Major Rohit Shukla’s team, which eliminated top Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist Sameer Tiger. He had boarded a private vehicle for Shopian, from where he was supposed to go to Rajouri district. The terrorists intercepted the vehicle as it approached Kalampora and abducted the jawan.His bullet-riddled body was found by a team of police and the Army at Gussu village, about 10 km from Kalampora, in Pulwama district.In the video, the martyr’s father can also be seen asking an Army man why Pakistani flag was being unfurled in Kashmir. “Kashmir is ours. Why is Pakistan’s flag flying in Kashmir? Why not the Indian flag? The Indian flag should be hoisted here,” Hanief says in the video.On Friday, he had appealed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to avenge his son’s murder within 72 hours. “I give PM Modi 72 hours to avenge my son’s death or else we are ready to take revenge on our own. Kashmir is ours. We must not let Kashmir burn. Instead, we must eliminate the goons who are destroying the Valley,” said the ex-serviceman.Blaming the political class for the present situation in Kashmir, the dejected father said they were responsible for the death of soldiers to reap political benefits.He also blamed Pakistan for the killing of his son and said the neighbouring country was inflicting serious damage on India, which needed to be repulsed.At the Sagra Army ground, floral wreaths were laid by Javed Rana, MLA, Mendhar; Pardeep Sharma, MLC from Poonch; and senior Army and police officers.

File photo of Pervez Musharraf. Reuters

Lahore, June 14

Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Thursday withdrew a conditional permission earlier granted to former President Pervez Musharraf to contest the upcoming General Election after his counsel informed that the former military chief was unable to return to the country.

A four-member Bench of the apex court heard the case pertaining to Musharraf’s return on Thursday. He requested more time to return to the country, however, the court refused to entertain his requests after granting a day-long extension in the June 13 deadline, Geo News reported.

“Musharraf wants to return to the country but cannot owing to the current situation and Eid-ul-Fitr holidays,” his counsel told the bench during the hearing of a case filed by the former President in 2015 against the rejection of his nomination papers in the 2013 general election.

In response, Chief Justice Mian Saqib Nisar said that “we’ll adjourn the court hearing till indefinite time period, will hold it on your wish”.

The Secretary-General of Musharraf’s All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) said that the former Army chief’s legal team will be applying for an extension.

“We will request them to set a date after Eid-ul-Fitr. If they agree, Musharraf will return,”  Mohammad Amjad Chaudhry told The Express Tribune.

Earlier, the court assured Musharraf’s counsel that the former President would not be arrested upon appearance. It also allowed the returning officers to receive his nomination papers for the upcoming election. However, it had said acceptance of his nomination papers would be subject to the final decision in the present case. — IANS

The most difficult part of the Ramzan suspension of operations by the security forces in Jammu and Kashmir is not the execution on ground but the decision on whether this should continue beyond Ramzan. That’s what led home minister Rajnath Singh to visit the state over two days last week to get a first-hand idea of the situation. The minister’s affable personality and reputation as a moderate makes him the ideal leader for this. The BJP’s partner in J&K, the PDP, obviously justifies the extension but opinion in Jammu and across much of the BJP’s nationwide support base is different. The factors which play a role in the security situation and the socio-political environment need deeper than peripheral analysis.

Along with the positive optics of the home minister’s visit, the first issue at stake is the fact that in New Delhi there is no consistency in the thought process on issues like continued suspension of operations, talks with the separatists or Pakistan and peace overtures. What analysts are increasingly finding is that with a foreign policy reset under way, its dynamics still uncertain, internal security policies too will be in flux. Obfuscation may be the better part of discretion for some time. Through this thought process, the suspension of operations and its extension may be the starting point for the development of positives and sustenance of options over a longer time.

There’s no doubt that while suspension of operations hasn’t led to peace and tranquility, its virtual rejection by all also hasn’t led to any earth-shattering turbulence. It actually acted as a trigger for a reiteration of the LoC ceasefire, called for by Pakistan obviously as a part of its policy reset. With elections due in Pakistan next month, and J&K lower on the radar there, a fairer chance will be available for the new government to reexamine its own policies in keeping with ground realities. It’s all about being pragmatic and giving peace a chance if there is no undue exploitation of the situation by the terrorist groups.

The short spate of grenade attacks and planned violence after the Friday prayers created a sentiment against any further suspension, which is what the extremists want. However, the security forces did well to limit the perception that such incidents would lead to a mass upsurge. Local sentiments by and large remained muted and in favour of the suspension, with mothers reportedly saying they slept well for the first time in years. It is people’s pressure, more than that from the security forces or the government, that changes things.

The governments at the Centre and the state will have to keep two reports by the J&K CID in perspective while considering their decision. Both reports, which leaked in the media, had different responses. The first gave extensive data to determine that South Kashmir’s terrorism, essentially local, is driven by the killing of local terrorists; it is their funerals which generate deep sentiments among youth from the vicinity of their villages or the encounter spot. The takeaway from this fairly exhaustive report is that the pipeline of local terrorists can be maintained interminably even as effective operations continue. The thinking in New Delhi, no doubt driven by further analyses of this report, is that alongside operations there’s a need for much more to calm and cool the environment and prevent generation of passions. If with suspension of “offensive operations” the levels of violence remain lower, it may give a chance to the authorities to be more proactive in their softer options of youth empowerment, better governance and political outreach. To its credit, the government demonstrated snippets of its organising skills during the home minister’s J&K visit and the media reporting of this possibly made a difference — sending the message of what J&K was missing for lack of peace. The suspension of operations was really a last-minute decision in mid-May, and gave the state government little time to plan, execute and demonstrate what peace could bring in its wake. The separatists and the terror groups, a little surprised by the government initiative, also couldn’t reorganise themselves. If any justification for the extension has to be sought, it lies here — that perhaps it needed more time for peace to be given a chance. At the outset in mid-May I had argued that the decision to suspend operations should have included the period of the Amarnath Yatra, which would give sufficient time for the actual realisation of the effect. However, the J&K CM did have a valid point that the situation with all its challenges needed to be handled with small steps. If the home minister does recommend extension and the Centre accepts it, it will be up to the state government to convert this opportunity into greater prospects for peace through better governance, more outreach to the people and communication to those opposed to the very idea of India. All this forms a part of strategic communication, on which much greater focus has to be placed.

The second aspect of the J&K CID’s report — that religious radicalisation is a myth and that many of those who decided to pick up the gun had essentially Hanafi Sunni origin or Sufi leanings — needs deeper analysis. Believing the current narrative without debate may lead the government to incorrect deductions and actions. During the height of the ISIS (Daesh) crisis in the Middle East, most of those who became religiously radicalised were non-Muslims, let alone being Hanafi or Maliki Sunnis. The original ideological orientation of an individual has little bearing here. Counter radicalisation and de-radicalisation programmes must form part of the package of measures during the extended suspension if the final decision is in that direction.

With very successful counter-infiltration in the last few weeks strategically, it is one of those junctures when a decision could be a make-or-break one. Considering what is on in terms of reset of relations with major countries, a positive turn in J&K with new initiatives could well send out an important message of change being in the air; hopefully only for the better.

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