The most difficult part of the Ramzan suspension of operations by the security forces in Jammu and Kashmir is not the execution on ground but the decision on whether this should continue beyond Ramzan. That’s what led home minister Rajnath Singh to visit the state over two days last week to get a first-hand idea of the situation. The minister’s affable personality and reputation as a moderate makes him the ideal leader for this. The BJP’s partner in J&K, the PDP, obviously justifies the extension but opinion in Jammu and across much of the BJP’s nationwide support base is different. The factors which play a role in the security situation and the socio-political environment need deeper than peripheral analysis.

Along with the positive optics of the home minister’s visit, the first issue at stake is the fact that in New Delhi there is no consistency in the thought process on issues like continued suspension of operations, talks with the separatists or Pakistan and peace overtures. What analysts are increasingly finding is that with a foreign policy reset under way, its dynamics still uncertain, internal security policies too will be in flux. Obfuscation may be the better part of discretion for some time. Through this thought process, the suspension of operations and its extension may be the starting point for the development of positives and sustenance of options over a longer time.

There’s no doubt that while suspension of operations hasn’t led to peace and tranquility, its virtual rejection by all also hasn’t led to any earth-shattering turbulence. It actually acted as a trigger for a reiteration of the LoC ceasefire, called for by Pakistan obviously as a part of its policy reset. With elections due in Pakistan next month, and J&K lower on the radar there, a fairer chance will be available for the new government to reexamine its own policies in keeping with ground realities. It’s all about being pragmatic and giving peace a chance if there is no undue exploitation of the situation by the terrorist groups.

The short spate of grenade attacks and planned violence after the Friday prayers created a sentiment against any further suspension, which is what the extremists want. However, the security forces did well to limit the perception that such incidents would lead to a mass upsurge. Local sentiments by and large remained muted and in favour of the suspension, with mothers reportedly saying they slept well for the first time in years. It is people’s pressure, more than that from the security forces or the government, that changes things.

The governments at the Centre and the state will have to keep two reports by the J&K CID in perspective while considering their decision. Both reports, which leaked in the media, had different responses. The first gave extensive data to determine that South Kashmir’s terrorism, essentially local, is driven by the killing of local terrorists; it is their funerals which generate deep sentiments among youth from the vicinity of their villages or the encounter spot. The takeaway from this fairly exhaustive report is that the pipeline of local terrorists can be maintained interminably even as effective operations continue. The thinking in New Delhi, no doubt driven by further analyses of this report, is that alongside operations there’s a need for much more to calm and cool the environment and prevent generation of passions. If with suspension of “offensive operations” the levels of violence remain lower, it may give a chance to the authorities to be more proactive in their softer options of youth empowerment, better governance and political outreach. To its credit, the government demonstrated snippets of its organising skills during the home minister’s J&K visit and the media reporting of this possibly made a difference — sending the message of what J&K was missing for lack of peace. The suspension of operations was really a last-minute decision in mid-May, and gave the state government little time to plan, execute and demonstrate what peace could bring in its wake. The separatists and the terror groups, a little surprised by the government initiative, also couldn’t reorganise themselves. If any justification for the extension has to be sought, it lies here — that perhaps it needed more time for peace to be given a chance. At the outset in mid-May I had argued that the decision to suspend operations should have included the period of the Amarnath Yatra, which would give sufficient time for the actual realisation of the effect. However, the J&K CM did have a valid point that the situation with all its challenges needed to be handled with small steps. If the home minister does recommend extension and the Centre accepts it, it will be up to the state government to convert this opportunity into greater prospects for peace through better governance, more outreach to the people and communication to those opposed to the very idea of India. All this forms a part of strategic communication, on which much greater focus has to be placed.

The second aspect of the J&K CID’s report — that religious radicalisation is a myth and that many of those who decided to pick up the gun had essentially Hanafi Sunni origin or Sufi leanings — needs deeper analysis. Believing the current narrative without debate may lead the government to incorrect deductions and actions. During the height of the ISIS (Daesh) crisis in the Middle East, most of those who became religiously radicalised were non-Muslims, let alone being Hanafi or Maliki Sunnis. The original ideological orientation of an individual has little bearing here. Counter radicalisation and de-radicalisation programmes must form part of the package of measures during the extended suspension if the final decision is in that direction.

With very successful counter-infiltration in the last few weeks strategically, it is one of those junctures when a decision could be a make-or-break one. Considering what is on in terms of reset of relations with major countries, a positive turn in J&K with new initiatives could well send out an important message of change being in the air; hopefully only for the better.

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Majid Jahangir

Tribune News Sevice

Srinagar, June 7

A day ahead of Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh planned visit to frontier Kupwara district, a soldier was killed and another injured in a suspected Border Action Team (BAT) attack-cum-infiltration bid close to the LoC on Thursday morning.The slain soldier has been identified as Sepoy Sukhwinder Singh, 27, a resident of Hakam Singhwala in Bathinda, Punjab.While the Army in Srinagar said it was “standoff fire” (firing from a distance) in the Keran sector ahead of the LoC fence that initially left two soldiers injured, top defence sources said it was a “BAT attack-cum-infiltration bid”.The sources said in such attacks, BAT members try to assault the Army patrol to divert their attention to push infiltrators to this side. “Whenever there is firing on the patrol, gaps are created which facilitate infiltration,” they said.After the incident in Keran, the Army has launched a massive combing operation in the sector. There is possibility that attackers may have fled back to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.The BAT attack-cum-infiltration bid took place days after the Director Generals of Military Operations of India and Pakistan agreed to “fully implement” the ceasefire pact of 2003 in letter and spirit.Srinagar-based defence spokesman Col Rajesh Kalia maintained that it was a “standoff attack” at an Army patrol in the Keran.“It was a standoff attack by terrorists on own link patrol ahead of the LoC fence in the Keran sector,” the spokesman said. He said the troops retaliated to the firing.On Wednesday, three unidentified militants were killed after the Army foiled an infiltration bid in the Machil sector along the LoC in Kupwara district. Since the halting of anti-militancy operations, the Army has killed at least 16 militant near the LoC.BAT attack-cum-infiltration bidWhile the Army in Srinagar said it was “standoff fire” in the Keran sector ahead of the LoC fence that initially left two soldiers injured, top defence sources said it was a “BAT attack-cum-infiltration bid”.

Tribune News Service

Dehradun, May 25

The 13-day Indo Nepal joint military exercise is set to begin in Pithoragarh district of Uttarakhand from May 30.Suryakiran-13, as the exercise has been named, will be see the participation by as many as 300 Army personnel from both India and Nepal. Anti-terror operations will also be part of the exercise that will conclude on June 12. The exercise will also lay focus on preparedness to meet disaster management challenges.Besides, the exercise helps in ensuring better understanding between the two armies apart from developing an expertise in jungle warfare and counter-terrorism operations, particularly in the mountainous terrains. The exercise also provides the two armies a platform to exchange experiences, ideas and skills.India and Nepal that share borders and are culturally linked have been conducting joint military exercises for long.

This unusual rise makes retail prices of petroleum products in India the highest in South Asia. A permanent solution to this problem lies in the inclusion of auto fuels under the GST.

SK Khosla

Secretary, Chetna Manch Chandigarh

For the last over 10 days, there has been an unabated rise in the prices of petrol and diesel across the nation and Chandigarh is not the exception. On May 21, the prices of petrol and diesel were Rs 73.93 and Rs 64.86 per litre, respectively.Although the average basket of oil prices that India imports rose by $3 barrel, the NDA government had not raised the prices at the pump since April 24, thanks to the electoral compulsions ahead of the Karnataka Assembly elections. Just after two days of elections, the government started raising the petrol and diesel prices. The price of the petroleum products has the a cascading effect on the common man.For instance, the sagging spot rubber market bounced back dramatically this week from Rs 120 per kg to Rs 127 per kg and similar is the fate of a large number of other products. Briefly, the following factors are pushing up crude oil prices:

• US sanctions on Iran
• Political crisis in Venezuela
• Instability in Libya and Iraq
• Imminent public offering of Saudi Arabia-owned oil company Aramco
• Lower supply from US shale oil basins
• Increasing growth in demand from emerging markets.

Fortunately for India, its oil imports from Iran will not be affected by the US sanctions against the West Asian country.Besides, taxes are around 100 per cent of the “base price” and both the Union and the state governments have calculatedly kept petroleum products outside the GST purview and treat the two auto fuels as  milch cow. This unusual rise which makes retail prices of petroleum products in India the highest in South Asia is principally on account of the tremendous hike in mopping up revenues by the Union government through excise duties. The higher crude prices would not impact the Centre’s fiscal deficit much; it could have implications for the current account deficit and inflationary trend of economy in the country.In the last four years, from April 1, 2014, the excise duty on petrol has gone up from Rs 9.48 per litre to Rs 19.48 per litre as of now. This amounts to a hike of 105 per cent and 47.4 per cent of the retail price is going to the tax revenue collection. Similarly, the excise duty on diesel which was Rs 3.56 per litre on April 1, 2014 has now gone up to Rs 15.33 per litre. This again amounts to an increase of 330 per cent, while 38.09 per cent of the retail price is going to tax. Local levies on fuels vary from state to state.The following could be the solution and help reduce the oil prices:1 Permanent solution to this problem, however, lies in the inclusion of auto fuels under the GST. This move will unify cap taxes on petrol and diesel at a maximum of 28 per cent. However, this may not be possible, considering the BJP is in power in about 20 states. When it was the main national Opposition, the BJP made much of high fuel prices.2 Instead of mopping benefits of low oil prices to achieve fiscal deficit targets, the government should create a price stabilisation fund to protect consumers from the highly volatile international oil market.3 Rising oil prices and the strengthening of dollar are a cause of serious concern although India’s foreign exchange reserves are still at a healthy $417 billion. 4 It also affects the current account of the government in another way. When oil prices fell, it increased the duties on fuel and used the revenue from this to strengthen its own finances, keeping the fiscal deficit under control. The government has an internal target for oil prices above which it may cut excise duties on petrol and diesel to ease the burden on consumers. 5 At the same time, the states can also play their part by reducing their VAT on fuel. With excise duty, states get 42 per cent of collections through devolution. 6 Apart from all this, the government can take measures like rationing petroleum products, cut in consumption in government vehicles which are ruthlessly using this gold liquid to cut demand for crude. Also, public transport needs to be strengthened.On the one hand, people are being burdened with excise duty raised from time to time and on the other hand, the Union government willingly allows lakhs of crores of rupees as tax waivers to top corporates of the country. Still, the government is reluctant to slash the prices, but unless swift action is taken to address the situation, economics of growth will head towards a speed-breaker which may be a serious challenge before the nation.

Ajay Banerjee

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, May 19

In May 1999, the Indian Army had a war to fight — to evict Pakistani Army troops occupying several peaks on the Indian side of the Line of Control in Mushkoh, Drass, Kargil and Batalik — all located east of the Zojila on the Indian side of the Line of Control (LoC).The Kargil conflict ensued in the summer of 1999. The Army needed to move machines and ammunition across Zojila, an 11,500-ft-high mountain pass through which meanders an important road link between Kashmir and Kargil-Ladakh. The pass, located some 130 km east of Srinagar, is closed for six months. It normally opens in May-end after an engineering effort by snow-cutters.Former Army Chief General VP Malik (retd), in his book ‘Kargil: From surprise to victory’, describes the importance of Zojila: “More than 19,000 tonne of ammunition was moved, mostly across Zojila.” To put it in perspective, a truck can carry 8-10 tonne of ammo. It was done in summer, but in winter, the pass is under 20 ft of snow.Prime Minister Modi on Saturday laid a plaque to begin work on the 14-km-long Zojila tunnel at a cost of Rs 6,800 crore. It promises to provide all-weather connectivity between Srinagar-Kargil and Leh. It will cut down the time taken to cross the Zojila from the present three-and-a-half hours to just 15 minutes.Zojila’s military importance was first felt in 1948 during the first India-Pak war. Code-named Operation Bison, it was a defining tank battle to evict the Pakistan Army, which had moved in from Skardu-Drass axis to capture Zojila in February 1948.Stuart Tanks of the 7 Cavalry led the charge along with the infantry following closely to clear the vital mountain pass. It was finally re-captured in November 1948. Any hesitation to tackle Zojila at this juncture would have resulted in the loss of Leh and Ladakh.Without tunnels, the summer months are crucial as the road is used for stocking up food items, LPG cylinders, medicines, clothing, shoes etc, besides the Army’s own movement and the road-opening teams.During the winters, Army equipment and men can only be moved on board the daily flights of IL-76 from Chandigarh and in case of a war-like scenario, the air effort was the only option. COST Rs 6,800 CRORE

VITAL PASS AT 11,500 FEET

• Zojila links Kashmir with Kargil-Ladakh
• 130 km east of Srinagar
• 6 months closed during winter and opens in May-end after an engineering effort by snow-cutters

THE TUNNEL

Length: 14 km

Target: All-weather connectivity between Srinagar-Kargil and Leh Relief: Will bypass Zojila and travel time will come down from 3.5 hours to 15 minutes

Tarn Taran, April 24

The video of the ransacked house of two brothers, both of whom are Army men and residents of Piddi village, eight km from here, has gone viral on social media. It has caused embarrassment to the district administration.The incident took place on April 14 while a case under Sections 324, 452, 427, 506. 148 and 149 of the IPC was registered on April 18. A total of 23 persons, including 16 are yet to be identified, were booked.Sub-Inspector Amritpal Singh, who is investigating the case, said raids were on to arrest the accused.Jasbir Singh Piddi, former sarpanch of the village, said the victim, Jaswant Singh and Paramjit Singh, had come to the village on leave. He said the accused were harassing them by parking their bikes in the common street. He said the accused armed with swords, sticks and other sharp-edged weapons attacked them and ransacked the house. The victims are three brothers and Baljinder Kaur is the wife of their third brother. She is the sarpanch of the village.Jasbir Singh said a delegation of villagers had met SSP Darshan Singh Mann on Monday and demanded action against the accused, but no accused had been arrested yet. He said the damaged household items were worth more than Rs 20 lakh. The former sarpanch said a car and bikes were damaged. — OC

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Vijay Mohan

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, April 20

The Ministry of Defence has issued orders to hike the pension of officers of the rank of Major Generals and equivalent who were drawing pension lower than that of subordinate rank of Brigadier because of anomalies in implementation of successive pay commission recommendations.The affected officers had sought judicial redressal of their grievance and moved the Punjab and Haryana High Court. In 2008, the Supreme Court upheld the high court’s order and laid down guidelines for fixation of pension of Major Generals with effect from January 1, 1996, the date of applicability of the Fifth Pay Commission, at rates higher than that of Brigadiers.A group of 52 Major Generals who had then moved the court would benefit from the apex court order. A similar situation arose when the Sixth Pay Commission was implemented and 57 affected Major Generals, who had retired prior to 2006, moved the Chandigarh Bench of the Armed Forces Tribunal.In 2010, the tribunal ruled in their favour in terms of the Supreme Court’s earlier orders, following which the Union Government again moved the apex court in 2011. The matter is pending before the court and in the interim, the MoD implemented the tribunal’s decision only for the litigants in the said case but not for other similarly placed pensioners and family pensioners. In December 2017, the Supreme Court pointed out that the decision should have been implemented for all similarly placed officers and not only for litigants, after which the government sought time to do the needful.An April 16 MoD letter states that “it has been decided to allow similar benefit of revision of pension and family pension to all Major Generals and equivalent ranks in the Air Force and the Navy who retired prior to 2006”. The benefits will be with effect from January 1, 2006, the date of implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission.

Panaji, April 7

Goa has issued an alert to all the vessels and casinos operating off the state’s coast following an intelligence input about possible arrival of terrorists on board a fishing trawler, the state’s ports minister said.State’s Ports Minister Jayesh Salgaoncar told PTI that his department has issued a warning to all the off shore casinos, water sports operators and barges to be alert as the Indian Coast Guard has shared an intelligence input about a possible terror attack on the western coast.“The alert is not specific to Goa. It can be even to Mumbai or Gujarat coast, but we have alerted the vessels and concerned agencies,” Salgaoncar said.“A fishing trawler from India, which was seized by Pakistan has been released and there is intelligence input that on its way back, it may carry terrorists,” the minister said.State’s Ports Department has written to the off shore casinos and cruise vessels, and barges to remain alert in the wake of the intelligence input.“Have received intelligence input from District Coast Guard that anti-national elements have boarded an apprehended Indian fishing boat in Karachi and (are) likely to land on Indian coast and attack vital installations,” states the communication by Captain of Ports James Braganza to Goa’s tourism department and all the water sports operators, casinos, and cruise vessels and barges.“All vessels to increase security and report any sighting or untoward movement to concerned authorities,” the letter states.When contacted, Braganza confirmed sending the letter today to all the people concerned. The letter was also marked to State Chief Secretary Dharmendra Sharma. PTI