Our Correspondent

Jammu, October 21

Over 3,000 youths from Jammu turned up for 32 posts in the Territorial Army’s recruitment rally in the Bari Bramnah area of Jammu on Monday.

Amid complaints of large-scale unemployment in Jammu and Kashmir, the candidates expressed their gratitude to the Army for carrying out the recruitment rally to provide them some sought of livelihood.

The Army’s 157 Infantry Battalion (Territorial Army) (Home and Hearth) (Sikh) has been organising recruitment rally between October 21 and 25 at Bari-Bramnah, Jammu.

On the day one, candidates from RS Pura, Akhnoor, Bishnah and Nagrota tehsils of Jammu district took part in the recruitment rally, whereas candidates from Bari Brahmana, Vijaypur and Ramgarh tehsils of Samba and Teryath, Paoni and Reasi will participate in days to come. There are 32 posts of Soldier (General Duty) and two of Housekeeper.

“We have been witnessing a huge rush of youth willing to join the Army. This is an open recruitment rally for the areas specified in the notification. The candidates will undergo physical fitness tests, medical examination and other procedures during the recruitment rally,” an officer said.

It is vital to sensitise people, especially the Kashmiri youth, who may not be aware of the history of the event and of the brutality their forefathers were subjected to at the hands of Pakistan. Silence is no longer an option.

Tilak Devasher
Member, National Security Advisory Board

October 22, 1947, is perhaps the most critical date in J&K’s history. It was on this date that Pakistan-sponsored tribal ‘raiders’ invaded the state to forcibly annex it to the newly created country. The Maharaja of Kashmir had entered into a standstill agreement with Pakistan on August 12, 1947, under which Pakistan had undertaken not to unilaterally disturb the status quo i.e. continue to treat J&K as an independent state. Pakistan deliberately broke the agreement and invaded an independent state. The raiders, as is well known, indulged in an orgy of looting and violence and were ultimately repulsed by the Indian Army.

While Pakistan failed to forcibly annex the state, it did succeed in appropriating the entire narrative on Kashmir. On the one hand, it managed to mask its violation of the agreement and its 1947 invasion, and on the other, it succeeded in diverting the narrative by claiming that the accession of J&K to India was bogus and the entry of Indian troops in Kashmir on October 27, 1947, was illegal. Such a narrative has been bolstered by Pakistan observing for decades this day as ‘black day’.

Unfortunately, India has conceded this space and the narrative to Pakistan by not contesting it. There is a need to make a substantive push for observing the anniversary of the October 22 invasion as the real ‘black day’ in the history of Kashmir. This will sensitise people, especially the Kashmiri youth, who may not be aware of the history of the event and of the brutality their forefathers were subjected to at the hands of Pakistan. They need to be educated, if not reminded, that this was the day when the entire history of Kashmir was irreversibly distorted, how the princely state became an ‘issue’ and a ‘question’ and how historical facts were twisted to advance the Pakistani agenda. 

PoK author Mohammad Saeed Asad in his book Yaadon ke Zakhm (wounded memories) has collated a series of eyewitness accounts of the tribal invasion, especially in Muzaffarabad and its environs. These accounts are a brutal revelation for those who have forgotten the events or view Kashmir through tinted glasses.

The accounts underline the tolerant and peaceful nature of society in J&K before the tribesmen were unleashed upon the unsuspecting populace. Muzaffarabad had all three religious communities — Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs, with the Muslims being in a majority. All communities lived in harmony and interaction among them was of a very high order. The communities were not just friends, but their contact extended to all aspects of existence, including festivals, marriages and funerals. As one eyewitness put it, the interaction was far more amicable than the relationship among Muslims these days. 

The ransacking of Muzaffarabad by the raiders was comprehensive and devastating. The properties of Hindus and Sikhs were burnt and they were slaughtered. Their bodies lay in their homes or on the street for days. Many were thrown into the river. While they looted, the raiders hardly distinguished between Muslim and non-Muslim property. Thus, Muslim shops were equally ransacked and no Muslim home was spared from this tribal plunder. In places, even the holy Quran was desecrated. All the looted stuff was loaded onto trucks and sent to the Frontier.

According to an eyewitness, there wasn’t a village or hamlet on the way that the raiders didn’t plunder and ravage. While men were slaughtered, they would grab the jewellery belonging to women, irrespective of religion. If any woman dared protest, they would either yank the jewellery off or chop the body part with the jewellery. Many women read the kalma and pleaded for their lives but the raiders took no heed. Many women were taken back to the Frontier and sold to the highest bidder.

In India, Jehangir’s couplet about Kashmir being paradise is famous. Across the border, there is a somewhat comparable saying. Whenever poets, writers and intellectuals crossed the Kohala bridge over the Jhelum and entered J&K, they would instinctively exclaim in Farsi, ‘Man khuda rah deedum aah jabey hijab’ (I have witnessed God here in his full glory, uncovered).

That paradise was ripped apart on October 22, 1947. For the wounds to heal, those Pakistanis responsible for the original sin of the tribal invasion would have to be publicly identified, shamed and tried in the court of time. They are the real enemies of the Kashmiri people. Their action destroyed the unity of Kashmir and permanently damaged its social, religious, cultural and civilisational characteristics.

It is a tragedy of colossal proportions that Pakistan has gone unpunished for its crimes in Kashmir. Worse, it has managed to cloak its evil deeds from public gaze and in a sleight of hand, transferred the blame on to India. It is only when events are organised about what really happened then that the full extent of Pakistan’s culpability for the situation in Kashmir will be known to the people of Kashmir themselves. Silence and apathy are no longer options.

Pakistan had signed a similar standstill agreement with the Khan of Kalat on August 4, 1947, assuring that it would be an independent country. Like in the case of Kashmir, Pakistan broke that agreement, too, in March 1948 and forcibly annexed Kalat. Pakistan’s subsequent history shows a continued disdain for its international commitments, emboldened, no doubt, because it has never been held accountable.

Between the signing of the NFA in August 2015 and now, the NSCN IM has issued statements contradicting the government’s claim that it had accepted the Indian Constitution. On the contrary, it has been saying that it wants a separate Constitution, flag and integration of all contiguous Naga-inhabited areas under Nagalim (Greater Nagaland).

Maj-Gen Ashok Mehta (retd)
Defence commentator

Last Saturday, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), the dominant Naga armed rebel group engaged in the 22-year-old peace process with the Centre, held yet another round of talks, this time presumably with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval on board in New Delhi to break the impasse. The NSCN-IM said the government was trying to backtrack on its commitment to a solution embedded in the Naga Framework Accord of August 3, 2015 by using a group of Nagas who do not represent the Naga people. This critique of the Centre by the NSCN-IM is a significant development unravelling the NFA.

Additionally, the defanging of Article 370 has sown seeds of doubt and uncertainty among some north-eastern states about the government’s commitment to special powers allocated to them. Worse, it has brought the tom-tommed NFA to a cul de sac. After the success of nullifying Article 370, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had ordered special interlocutor RN Ravi to bring to fruition the NFA by October-end. Nagaland was the first state after J&K to be covered by the 13th Amendment of 1962 which granted it special powers in respect of its identity, culture and social practices — almost akin to J&K — under Article 371-A of the Constitution. In 1963, it was granted full statehood.

The report of the Parliamentary Select Committee attached to the Home Ministry of July 2018 laid in the Rajya Sabha stated that the NSCN IM had agreed to a political settlement within the Indian Constitution with special status. Between the signing of the NFA in August 2015 and now, the NSCN-IM has issued several statements contradicting the government’s claim that it had accepted the Indian Constitution. On the contrary, it has been saying that it wants a separate Constitution, flag and integration of all contiguous Naga-inhabited areas under Nagalim (Greater Nagaland). Ravi has articulated that the first two demands — Constitution and flag — were never on offer. But the Nagas have been saying that their merger with the Union of India could never happen. Instead, the Nagas will co-exist as two entities. The Nagas do not accept the Constitution of India, but the Nagas and India will share sovereignty. So, did the government sell a lemon to the country in August 2015?

On August 24, 2019, NSCN-IM Chairman Q Tuccu and General Secretary Muivah wrote a letter to Modi, stating that there cannot be an honourable solution to the Naga peace process without a separate flag and Constitution, two symbols of special status that were first to go in J&K. Muivah said that the Centre had misinterpreted the term ‘inclusive’ in the NFA, adding that it does not mean the Nagas will be included in the Union of India. ‘We have never been in the Union of India and we will never be,’ the Nagas are saying. So close to a solution and yet so far.

A round of talks was held on August 1 at NSCN-IM headquarters at Mount Hebron which apparently did not go well and broke up in discord. This was immediately after Ravi was promoted to Governor of Nagaland. The Naga Army of NSCN-IM which is technically confined to Mount Hebron was involved in at least five cases of armed clashes and confrontation with security forces this year. Ravi has claimed that all substantive issues in the NFA have been resolved — nothing is left — and assured the Nagas that Article 371 A, which is a solemn commitment and not impermanent like Article 370, will not be repealed. He explained that there is no similarity between Articles 370 and 371 A, adding that the Centre is trying to make it more than 371 A and there is no question of diluting it. Ravi said the intended solution recognises the Nagas’ unique history and the settlement is on the basis of power-sharing and peaceful co-existence. He asserted that the Centre has accepted the integration of Naga areas, adding the red herring that it is the legitimate right of the Naga people to pursue and achieve integration through democratic and political process. 

The government might allow a pan-Naga Assembly if it is restricted to culture, religion and tribal practices, after the BJP-ruled states like Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, where the Nagas reside, show the green flag. Craftily, Ravi has also been negotiating with seven other former Naga rebel outfits with which he signed an agreement in November 2017 which has upset the NSCN-IM which claims to be the sole representative of all Naga people.

Last month, Home Minister Amit Shah, attending the North Eastern Council meeting said that Articles 371 A to G will not be touched. Sikkim, covered by Article 371 F, was also worried and the new state government has decided to support the BJP at the Centre. The Parliament cannot legislate to alter special status granted to states covered by Article 371 without the concurrence of the Legislative Assembly, a constitutional imperative the Centre fraudulently overcame in the case of the J&K. Still, people in the North-East are restive after the introduction of the National Register of Citizens (NRC). Chief Minister of Nagaland Neiphieu Rio said at the NEC that the Centre should act north-east, before acting east.

The biggest gainer of the imbroglio of NFA, in a sense, is its mastermind and interlocutor Ravi who was Special Director IB in 2012, then chairman JIC before he was elevated to Deputy National Security Adviser, followed by the Governor Nagaland. The Americans would describe a person of his Sputnik-like rise as a ‘water-walker’. He is now the constitutional head of a state and his added role as negotiator in talks with the Naga people would be questionable. More questionable is the fate of the NFA: more fiction than fact? Or, so close and yet so far? The NFA has become make-believe.

There are seven main divisions of the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF): Border Security Force (BSF), Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), Assam Rifles (AR), National Security Guard (NSG) and Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB). Of these, recruitment to first five is done by the UPSC through Central Armed Police Forces (ACs) Examination. Let’s know about these five forces in detail.

Border Security Force

The Border Security Force (BSF) is the border defence organisation of India, alias first line of defence. Established on December 1, 1965, it was raised in the wake of the Indo-Pakistan War. The main role of the BSF is to keep a watch over international borders against intrusion during peacetime and preventing transnational crime. It guards the Indian borders shared with Pakistan and Bangladesh and is deployed both on the International Border (IB) and Line of Control (LoC).

Strength: The BSF has grown 186 battalions with a sanctioned strength of 257,363 personnel including an expanding air wing, marine wing, an artillery regiment, and commando units.

Central IndustrialSecurity Force

Raised in 1969 after the recommendations of Justice B Mukherji, its role is to monitor the Central Government industrial complexes. However, the CISF is no longer a PSU-centric organisation. Instead, it has become a premier multi-skilled security agency of the country, mandated to provide security to major critical infrastructure installations of the country. It is currently providing security cover to nuclear installations, space establishments, airports, seaports, power plants, sensitive government buildings and many heritage monuments. A unique feature associated with CISF is that it has a fire wing, which provides assistance during major fire outbreaks.

Strength: Its current active strength is 1,48,371 personnel. In April 2017, the government raised the sanctioned strength from 145,000 to 180,000 personnel.

Indo-Tibetan Border Police

Raised on October 24, 1962, in the wake of Sino-India War, the ITBP personnel monitor the borders and also stop smuggling and illegal immigration. The ITBP also has a water wing, which guards the riverine borders of the Himalayan region which includes Pangong Lake, the Brahmaputra region in Arunachal Pradesh, and the Indus in Jammu and Kashmir.

Strength: The ITBP, which started with four battalions, has since restructuring in 1978 has undergone expansion to a force of 60 Battalions with 15 Sectors and 5 Frontiers as of 2018 with a sanctioned strength of 89,432.

Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB)

Established in 1963, the SSB guards the Indo-Nepal and Indo-Bhutan borders. It was only in 2014 that the government approved the recruitment of women as combat officers in SSB. Formerly known as the Special Service Bureau, their job is to control anti-national activities.

Strength: As of 2017, it has 76,337 active personnel in 73 battalions.

Central Reserve Police Force

Established in 1939, its main role is to assist the state police or UT police in maintaining law and order. It is deployed in every part of the country, actively looking after the internal security. The CRPF contingents are also being deployed in the UN missions. CRPF also plays a major role during the General Election. The Mahila Battalion (88th Battalion of CRPF) commissioned on March 30, 1986, is the world’s first paramilitary force comprised entirely of women. CRPF is further bifurcated into two units: Rapid Action Force (RAF) and Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (COBRA)

Strength: With 239 battalions and various other establishments, the CRPF is considered India’s largest paramilitary force and has a sanctioned strength of more than 3,00,000 personnel as of 2017.

Amir Karim Tantray

Tribune News Service

Bhaderwah (Doda), October 11

Infiltration from the Pakistani side is not confined to the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB) in Jammu and Kashmir. The militants are now trying to infiltrate through other borders outside the state. This was disclosed by Northern Command chief, Lt Gen Ranbir Singh, today during an interaction with the media after inaugurating ‘Sangam’ youth festival at the Bhaderwah campus of the University of Jammu (JU) here.

“There have been several reports regarding infiltration by terrorists into J&K. However, as far as the counter-infiltration grid is concerned, it is very strong and we are able to thwart the infiltration bids at the LoC itself. It is a multi-tier grid and if militants try to sneak in by breaching the first grid, the second grid will catch them. But if they manage to breach the second grid also, they are eliminated by other grids,” he said.

“There are reports that infiltration is taking place but since the grid is strong on the LoC, we have reports that infiltration is taking place from other borders and from there onwards, they try to come to J&K through Lakhanpur and other areas. But be assured that we will be able to stop the infiltration in the best possible manner,” he added.

The Army commander said terror camps and launching pads inside Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) were active and around 500 terrorists were always present there. “In J&K, 200 to 300 terrorists are active and around 500 terrorists are present in launching pads and terror camps across the LoC. But the number is approximate and keeps changing,” he said.

He said militants in the state were facing a shortage of weapons. “It is the reason they are attacking police stations and snatching rifles from SPOs,” he said.

Speaking on the Kashmir valley, he said the situation was improving since the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the luxury Taj resort Fisherman’s Cove in Mamallapuram. PTI

Sandeep Dikshit
Tribune News Service
Mamallapuram, October 12

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday said that their second informal summit here heralds the start of a new era in India-China relations. The ‘Chennai vision’, he hoped, would build on the first informal summit between India and China last year in Wuhan that had given fresh stability and momentum in bilateral relations.

Strategic communication between the two countries has led to increased stability, he underlined in his opening remarks at the beginning of delegation-level talks. PM Modi and XiJinpinghave met 17 times at structured summits and two informal summits, including the one in Mamallapuram. He recalled that at the Wuhan meeting, the two leaders had decided not to allow differences to fester into disputes.

PM Modi began the second day of the informal summit by “plogging’’ on the beach behind his luxury hotel. He was televised picking up trash from the beach while exercising and taking in the scenery. With no one present on the entire beach and a couple of TV cameras for company, the PM was dressed in a black tracksuit and picked up the trash with bare hands.

Later he paced in the foyer of the beach resort while waiting for Xi to arrive and then sat next to the driver in a battery-operated vehicle while XI and the interpreters sat behind him as they drove down to a retreat at the resort for nearly 45 minutes of one-to-one talks, picking up the threads from Friday’s five hours of discussions between them, including at a sumptuous dinner which stretched late into the night.

The Chinese President will leave for Nepal after wrapping up talks with PM Modi. He had met Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, invited at China’s request, two days before leaving for India.

Xi, however, was circumspect in his opening remarks. “I may follow up on the proposals and issues discussed yesterday. I will make some responses. I’m sure that our discussions today will further bring forward our relations,’’ he observed.

The leaders then broke for delegation-level talks. Besides PM Modi, the Indian side included National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale.

Xi was more forthcoming on the Indian hospitality, stating that he was “really overwhelmed’’ and the trip to South India was a memorable experience for me and us [the delegation].’’

The two leaders had met on Friday evening and toured the temples of Mamallapuram that was followed by a cultural programme and dinner. In a late night briefing, Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said the two leaders discussed bilateral issues and their respective national visions. Today, he said, they will touch on regional and international issues.

India will soon have a combat aircraft rivalling Lockheed Martin’s F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II of the United States of America, China’s Chengdu J-20 and Russian Sukhoi Su-57. Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Rakesh Kumar Singh Bhadauria on Tuesday announced that the development of 5th Generation advanced multi-role combat aircraft has been launched in a massive boost to the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) programme.

Pitching strongly for an indigenous weapons platforms to arm the Indian Air Force (IAF), ACM Bhadauria’s stress on India going ahead with its own 5th Generation stealth fighter means that IAF would not consider Su-57. He had on October 4, too, during a press conference made it clear that IAF would not go for any foreign-made 5th Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA). Russia is actively looking for buyers for the Su-57 which has entered serial production and 76 fighters will start joining its aerospace force starting end of 2019.

The supersonic AMCA is being developed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). The all-weather multirole AMCA is likely to have twin-engines with stealth features. It will in all probability be single-seater combat aircraft.
Along with the Rafale, Sukhoi Su-30 MKI and Light Combat Aircraft Tejas, the AMCA will be IAF’s backbone in the coming decades. A naval version of the 5th Generation fighter will also be developed for Indian Navy’s aircraft carriers which currently operate the Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29K.

According to IAF’s Air Staff Requirements (ASR) for the AMCA issued in April 2010, the aircraft must have a high degree of stealth, ability to carry weapons internally as well as externally, internal fuel capacity, be able to super cruise and perform the role of both air-to-air to air-to-ground attacks. With the AMCA will primarily engage targets at beyond visual range, it will also have a powerful thrust vectoring engine for supermanoeuvrability for better dogfighting capabilities.

ISLAMABAD: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman was so ups ..

Ajay Banerjee in New Delhi

India is nowadays living under a ‘threat’ of possible terror strikes engineered by terrorists trained and based in Pakistan. Such a strike could result in India retaliating militarily and even spiral out into a short skirmish or war fanned by rhetoric-oriented media on either side.

The lives of almost 12.5 crore people on either side of the divide are at risk in case nuclear warheads get used.

Since August 5, the day India changed the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, there have been reports of Pakistan activating terror camps. Indian agencies have intercepted communication to say some 60 such terrorists are believed to have entered India in the past two months and another 500 odd are in Pakistan.

Terror strikes pose a major threat to not just Army bases but also air bases in North India, which hold war-fighting assets of the IAF like MiG 29 (at Adampur), Apache and Mi35 attack copters (Pathankot), Sukhoi 30 (Sirsa, Bathinda and Halwara) and Jaguar (Ambala). Besides this, long-distance trains, metros, malls and entertainment centres like movie theatres in big cities are at risk, is the warning from security agencies.

Templates for retaliation

New Delhi will retaliate to terror strikes. Two templates have been cast — one was the land-based surgical strikes at five different terror camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir on September 29, 2016, and the second air strikes at Balakot on February 26 this year to destroy a terror camp. In both cases, India was responding to major terror strikes — one on a military camp at Uri and the other on a CRPF convoy at Pulwama.

Former Northern Army Commander Lt Gen DS Hooda (retd) says, “Pakistani deep state will not stop its efforts in attempting to carry out terror attacks in India. Infiltration has been stepped up and the situation at the Line of Control (LoC) is marked by heavy exchange of fire.”

Since the last week of September, the Indian Army has carried out mock drills ‘to flush out terrorists’ from major facilities, including the civil airport of Amritsar. The Indian Air Force fighter jets carried out low-altitude flying on October 1. IAF jets overflying Punjab broke the ‘sound barrier’, resulting in a sonic boom and fears that ‘someone’ was being ‘chased’, hence the high speed. “It was a routine exercise” is what IAF officials said later, explaining that the sonic boom was part of it.

An assessment of the Pentagon says India could be attacked by Pakistan-trained terrorists. The US Assistant Secretary of Defence for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, Randall Shriver, told an audience in Washington on October 2: “Many have concerns that Pakistan keeps a lid on militant groups that might conduct cross-border activities as a result of the Kashmir decisions.”

Changes post Mumbai hold key

The period 2001-2008 looks far away. Terrorists launched audacious attacks in mainland India, including the ones on Parliament (December 2001) and Mumbai (November 2008). Within this period, a series of bomb blasts rocked several Indian cities, all carried out by what was called the ‘Indian Mujahideen’.

Post-Mumbai, radical changes were made in the functioning of the security and Intelligence agencies. This included changes to the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) by giving sweeping powers to agencies, including that of arrest. An approach of joint operations and information sharing through an established channel called the multi-agency centre (MAC) works seamlessly. Things did turn around, random bomb blasts were controlled, but the Kashmir situation continued to fester.

In the past few years, barring the attack on the Pathankot air base in 2016, gun-toting terrorists have been restricted to the Kashmir valley, where terrorists have tried to storm military bases like Uri, Nagrota, Sanjuwan, etc.

Threat of war or nuclear war

An escalation into a war-type scenario will boil down to what choice Pakistan makes and how India responds. Islamabad can either risk its own soldiers and trigger a war for which it may not be prepared, or else it could continue with the low-cost option of waging a proxy war through terrorists and keep the Indian Army on its toes.

But does Pakistan have the military and economic strength to ignite a full-scale war with India? Lt Gen Subrata Saha (retd), a former commander of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps, has a pertinent query: “Can Pakistan justify a war to its own people? Do they have the military strength to fight one and what is the intention of such a war?”

Pakistan will opt for a proxy war for now, says Lt Gen Saha, who is now a member of the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB).

Almost 125 million (12.5 crore) people are at a risk of losing their lives in case India and Pakistan open up their nuclear arsenal. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, in a recent editorial in New York Times, unsheathed the nuclear sabre, saying: “If the world does nothing to stop the Indian assault on Kashmir and its people, there will be consequences for the whole world as two nuclear-armed states get ever closer to a direct military confrontation.”

A study by researchers from the University of Colorado and Rutgers University in the US says a nuclear war between India and Pakistan could, in less than a week, kill 50-125 million people — more than the death toll during all six years of World War II, and lead to a global climate catastrophe. It examined how such a hypothetical future conflict would have consequences that could ripple across the globe.

The study, published in the journal Science Advances, looked at a war scenario that may occur between India and Pakistan in 2025.

India and Pakistan have almost an equal number of nuclear warheads: 140-150. New Delhi holds the edge in having missiles with greater range and the ability to launch a strike from undersea using a submarine.

Lt Gen Hooda adds, “Unless Pakistan tones down its rhetoric and desists from pushing in terrorists, it could lead to a major incident between the two countries.”

So, can China intervene? A US assessment made public by Ronald Shriver in Washington said, “China may not want that kind of a conflict or would support that.”

Across the border, Pakistan army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa chaired the Corps Commanders Conference on October 3. The statement issued thereafter indicated the need to have a back channel open, lest the media on either side dictate terms. The statement said: “Commanders reiterated resolve for a befitting response to any Indian misadventure or aggression being conveyed through irresponsible media statements by Indian military commanders.”

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Plans won’t succeed

“There are some powers who want to carry out a Mumbai-like attack along India’s coastal regions, but their plans will not succeed. Pakistan should now understand that the commissioning of INS Khanderi has increased India’s capability to strike with greater force, if needed.”—Rajnath Singh, Defence Minister

Islamabad needs to tone down rhetoric 

“Pakistan has got no support in its attempts to internationalise the Kashmir issue, at the UN and other platforms. Pakistani deep state (the Inter Services Intelligence and a section within the army) will not stop in its efforts in attempting to carry out terror attacks in India. In the past few months, infiltration across the Line of Control (LoC) has been stepped up by Pakistan and the situation at the LoC has been marked by heavy exchanges of fire. Unless Pakistan tones down its rhetoric and desists from pushing in terrorists, it could lead to a major incident between the two countries.”— Lt Gen DS Hooda (Retd), Former Northern Army Commander

Not normal behaviour

“It (‘jihad’ call) is unbecoming of the office Imran Khan holds. Pakistan is not behaving as a neighbour should. This open call for ‘jihad’ is not normal behaviour. PM holds a high constitutional office. He has given such statements even before. We condemn this.” —Raveesh Kumar, MEA spokesperson

The Pakistan Ministry of Defence Production (MoDP)’s disclosure for the year 2017-2018 revealed that Pakistan’s Directorate General of Munitions Production (DGMP) has given a green signal for the development of a supersonic missile to be used by the Pakistan Navy.

Missiles Manufactured for Pakistan Navy ::

The Ministry of Defence Production and the Directorate General of Munitions Production did not divulge specific details with regards to the range, weight, dimensions and other capabilities of the missile.

Moreover, the authorities did not even specify whether the newly manufactured supersonic missiles would be an anti-ship cruising missile (ASCM) or a land-attack cruise missile (LACM). However, experts believe that it is highly likely that the new missile will be a dual ASCM-LACM.

The Directorate General of Munitions Production has also approved the manufacturing of an “improved version” of the Harbah dual anti-ship cruising and land-attack cruising missile. Pakistan Navy conducted a missile test of the Harbah back in January 2018, from aboard the PNS Himmat, an Azmat-class fast attack craft (FAC).

The improved version of the Harbah is likely to be the dual ASCM-LACM test-fired by the Pakistan Navy back in April 2019, conducted abroad the PNS Himmat Fast attack craft.

Director General Public Relations for the Pakistan Navy, Rear Admiral M. Arshad Javed, revealed that the Pakistan Navy conducted the Operation Exercise RIBAT-2109 to examine the operational preparedness of the naval forces earlier in September.

During the exercise, the Pakistan Navy consolidated Fleet Fire Power by conducting successful live missile firings, held from the surface and air platforms, to affirm the warfighting capabilities of the naval forces.

A press release issued by the DGPR Pakistan Navy stated, “The exercise is aimed at validating various operational concepts and tactical warfighting procedures including joint operations involving all Pakistan Navy’s Field Commands as well as Pakistan Air Force.”

“During the Exercise RIBAT, Pakistan Navy and Pakistan Air Force units are participating in maritime operations in various domains under complex grey hybrid warfare environment. Concurrently, Pakistan Marines and Special Operation Forces (SOFs) are also rehearsing special operations including Coastal Defence, Air Defence and Maritime Interdiction Operations etc.”

Highlighting the state of preparedness of the Pakistan Navy, the press release noted, “The exercise displays Pakistan Navy’s intent to maintain the highest state of readiness and combat potential to ensure seaward defence and protection of maritime interests of Pakistan during peace and war.”

The press release stated that the missile firings were witnessed by Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi, the Chief of the Naval Staff.

It stated in this regard, “Chief of the Naval Staff, Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi witnessed the missiles firings and expressed his utmost satisfaction on the operational readiness of Pakistan Navy. He also reaffirmed the resolve that Pakistan Navy is ready to defend its sea frontiers and would give a befitting response to any misadventure by the adversary.”

Parrying the BrahMos Threat ::

In order to increase its defensive capabilities against a supersonic-cruising anti-ship cruising missile, such as the BrahMos, it is important for Pakistan to work towards procuring or manufacturing analogous capabilities.

After approving the manufacturing of a supersonic missile, it appears that the Pakistan Navy is now working towards securing its own supersonic missile for anti-ship missions. In order to obtain a reliable analogous capability, the missile would require a supersonic-cruising design, which basically indicates a ramjet or scramjet air-breathing engine.

The authorities did not reveal a timeline for the new supersonic missile being manufactured for the Pakistan Navy. So far, there have been no announcements of a joint collaboration or project with another country.

However, a collaboration, such as India’s cooperation with Russia on the BrahMos, would allow Pakistan to reduce costs and timelines, alongside innovating in terms of technology procurement. The potential partners of such a collaboration most likely include China, Ukraine or South Africa.

Indo-Pak Nuclear Capability ::

A recently conducted research by Science Advances revealed that in 2019, the nuclear forces of Pakistan and India are likely to contain 140-150 nuclear warheads each, and these numbers are likely to expand to 200 to 250 warheads by 2025.

Pakistan’s nuclear-capable fighter jets, the Mirage III/V and the F-16 A have a range of 2100km, and they are equipped with eight different types of land-based ballistic missiles, with a range of up to 2750km, and two kinds of cruise missiles with ranges up to 350km. The analysts deduced that Pakistan’s nuclear
missiles can reach India by the longest-range delivery systems.