CHINA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE 

WITH ITS BABY IN ITS LAP, ‘THE WUHAN VIRUS’ CRYING FOR MORE

Do not trouble the trouble until the trouble troubles you. This is common sense and not Sun Tzu. I suppose that is why the Chinese have not heard of it. At Galwan they did trouble the trouble and they have ended up with more trouble than they have bargained for. Despite all their lies, deception, attempting to change facts on ground, disregard for a rules-based order, presenting themselves as an injured party and more, no one believes them since everyone knows the truth.  They have got a taste of what India can mete out to them.  They will get more if they continue to ask for it. Ladakh is not South China Sea and India is not a Vietnamese fishing boat which can just be run over.

I will not get into the intricacies of the faceoff incident at Galwan. There is an overload of information about that. There is live action going on. The situation is tense between two nuclear powers at loggerheads. This is a wider assessment of how the Chinese cards are stacked. At the outset, China has miscalculated at each step and achieved results just opposite to what it set out to do. In this sequence, the Galwan clash is a watershed event. If Corona was the Chinese Chernobyl  , the Galwan incident is like inserting enriched Uranium rods into the reactor. From here to criticality is a matter of time. After that, who knows?

The situation on the Indian front is ugly. While there were plenty of reasons for China to undertake a premeditated widespread offensive against India from Sikkim to Ladakh using Pakistan and Nepal as its catspaws, it has played a high-stake hand. Fundamentally it has attempted to shut its far Western ‘Rear Door’ in a preemptive offensive when the sea facing Eastern ‘Front Door’ is still intact due to weakness in USA and incoherent global strategic response. It planned this misadventure in end April. China embarked on it on 05/06 May as a low-cost low threshold, muscle flexing, demonstrative and non-tactical operation. Its strategy was Belligerent War Avoidance using classic inner lines. It has not worked. It has hit the Indian Wall. As matters stand tensions have heightened and thresholds are fast rising. This is no more a low-cost affair. There are heavy casualties on both sides. China has not disclosed the numbers in its typical secretive manner. When it does, it will like its virus numbers – vastly underreported. Its attempt to obfuscate and alter facts has fallen flat. Both armies have mobilized and built up. Suddenly, China is in a situation that it cannot militarily force the issue across the Himalayas. It does not have the strength to do so. Any reinforcements to rachet up the stakes must come from the mainland. It will be equally matched by India. That will open the East Coast! More importantly China might have to dip into reserves which are meant for internal control. This rod is highly enriched.

The flareup with India will remain heightened and long drawn. In attempting to tie India down on its land borders China will achieve the opposite effect. It will force India to relook at this dormant border through a different lens. China has unlocked its vulnerable rear door inadvertently. Xinjiang, Tibet, Shaksgam Valley and CPEC are waiting to be exploited in the long term. This line of action can start alongside the present situation.  Incidentally, the longer this situation, the greater the problem for China. Its troops are not available for other situations. By the way have you noticed – all that ‘Wolf Warriorism’ has suddenly disappeared from Chinese Diplomacy! They are playing things down.

What is the situation in the South China Sea? Three US aircraft carriers have entered the area. They are going to pivot around Taiwan, which in my opinion is the fourth unsinkable aircraft carrier. Against this formidable force the Chinese have one recently operationalized aircraft carrier and a yet to be operational carrier. Total outmatch. Despite this, the Chinese are still carrying out some aggressively dicey air maneuvers. One of these days an incident will occur, and they will get their comeuppance in the East Coast also.  Regionally, there is no succor for China. Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Brunei, Philippines, Singapore, and S Korea are all victims of Chinese aggression and Salami Slicing tactics. They will push back at the slightest opportunity. Indications from them point that way. Taiwan and Hong Kong are hot thorns in the Chinese flesh. Any day the front door might go on fire. One is seeing a hammer and anvil at play. Where is the hammer and where is the anvil? Ladakh or South China Sea? Take your pick. This rod is getting enriched as days go by.

Where is our friendly neighborhood Chinese virus? It has either jumped from Wuhan to Beijing through Norwegian salmon or taken the direct route. Does not matter. It has hit Beijing and forced the typical draconian Chinese lockdown in large parts of the city and countryside. There is a pattern emerging. We will continue to see an outbreak of about a hundred odd cases in some part of the country. China, like a cat on a hot tin roof will jump and stomp that outbreak by extensive testing and draconian lockdowns.  Then another outbreak will start somewhere. Another cycle will begin.  There will be a perpetual lockdown somewhere or the other. Compare this with other countries. They might have suffered but have learnt to live with the virus and continue life. They will eventually recover faster and stronger.  China has used draconian communist methods against a very democratic and bipartisan Virus, which does not differentiate its masters from others. It will extract its pound of Chinese flesh over a longer period at greater expense. I have said it earlier that the longer this virus lasts, the more difficult it will be for China and its economy, internal politics, geopolitics, and diplomacy to recover. My views are reinforced. The longer the Virus lasts, the longer the world will remember Wuhan and Chinese bungling, complicity, delayed response, aggression, censorship, greedy mask diplomacy, wet markets, pangolins, and bats. This Stigma is for life. This rod is weapon grade and highly enriched. It could push China into super criticality.

Who wants Chinese global leadership? Barring some parts of Africa, South America, Serbia, Pakistan, North Korea and some parts of Italy, the China story is unraveled. One sees Russia also being evasively neutral. The G7 Plus, QUAD, Five Eyes Intelligence etc are bad news for China and they are gaining strength. The sentiment in USA is steely across the board and it is anti-Chinese. In the forthcoming presidential election there is a good chance that President Trump and the Democratic contender Joe Biden will outdo each other in their anti-China plans. Let us also not forget that US is putting in place a denial regime encompassing educational opportunities for Chinese, operation of Chinese firms,  technology control, banning flights from China, restricting access to financial systems, visa restrictions on Chinese and many more  measures to hurt China. US resolve and ability to bounce back from disasters is phenomenal. History has shown that every time USA is hit by a disaster it has come back stronger. Analyze the Civil War, Pearl Harbor, attack on World Trade Center and Lehman’s Brothers initiated global melt down. Counting out USA post this pandemic will only be foolish by China and many more.  Where does China stand geopolitically? Isolated. Fourth rod under fast enrichment.

Economically things are not exactly rosy. Exports are under shock therapy. Imports are down indicating low consumption. Growth is staring at negative zones. Factories are losing orders. CPEC and BRI? Almost collapsing. The alternate Health and Digital Silk Roads are merely sops. The Made in China 2025 plan stands derailed.  Yuan as international tender? Even Cambodia, a Chinese beneficiary has continued with the US Dollar and said no to Yuan! Mask industry? Collapsed. Unemployment and job situation grim. People are working even at ¼th of their original salaries. Internal consumption – weak and going down. There is another reality. Deglobalization, decoupling and relocation of industry and supply chains will happen. It could be around 30% or more in the next five years. The Indian push back will be especially hard. Take any index. It is down. If China had displayed a better attitude and been less predatory, there could have been a huge surplus dividend. China has killed its own dream.  China might not collapse. However as things stand and with the current trajectory, Chinese economy might not overwhelm as hitherto fore. This fifth rod is unpredictable but might catalyze other rods in enriching them.

The overall picture is that China has a Navy which is hemmed in the South China Sea. PLA cannot force the issue against India. The Virus is active in the center. Its geopolitics and diplomacy are not working. Its economy is misfiring. Internal tensions could surface and spill over soon. The Chinese are stretched and under pressure. If this continues, they will reach criticality faster than anticipated. If they do not, there will be loss of face internally.

So where does it leave the current Sino Indian Equation?  Our PM has made a clear statement. We will not blink. The Galwan incident is overshadowing the limited disengagement which was underway. The mobilsed forces have even staged forward. Will we see de-escalation or escalation? Depends on the next few days. However my feeling is that we are in for the long haul. In this period we must expect Chinese Propaganda, Threats, Psychological Warfare, Twisted Legalities, Violation of Agreements, Altering Facts, Lies and Deceit. China has played its hand and it is our turn now. We need to leverage to get back to status quo ante as of 04 May. That must be led politically. Our response must be politically firm since China has been conducting this entire operation politically. A whole of the nation approach is the need of the hour. The Indian Armed Forces, in the vanguard, have upheld the honor nation repeatedly. I have full faith that they will deliver again. India does not want armed conflict with China. However if it is thrust on us, China will get more than a bloody nose.

What are the options available to India? In my last article I did mention some options. The gallant and brave action of 16 Bihar and the nearby Gunners at Galwan have opened our options further. What is the worst-case option for China? India opening the old silk route with all its insidious implications and a resurgent USA establishing an Island base in South China Sea. That is now on the table and could be a reality in the long term. If we do not do that it will be a wasted sacrifice by Col Babu and all those who laid down their lives at Galwan defending India. We owe it to them. We owe it to them to also to weaponize ourselves. If each of us spend a rupee less in buying Chinese items that will be a rupee well saved to honor our gallant soldiers. It is up to us – the people of India to push back against China.   In between these options there are a range of options in the political, diplomatic, military, and economic spheres. That will come in my next article.

In conclusion, there is something fundamental. Everyone says that China takes a long-term civilizational view and is always strategic in approach. That is a myth. In the past Century there are four distinct periods where China has changed course from Chiang kai Shek’s Nationalism, to Mao’s Revolutionism, to Deng’s Consolidation to Xi’s Revisionist Expansionism. There is no evidence that China derives its strategy from the Middle Kingdom. Which civilization are we talking of? The last generation Chinese Communists led by Mao revised and jettisoned every facet of Chinese civilization. The current generation communists have not revitalized the Chinese civilization which was inclusive. They have done exactly the opposite by incarcerating minorities and promoting Han nationalism. They have simply been overtaken by myopic greed to become a superpower at any cost ever. Ever since the Corona has made its appearance in Wuhan, they are in some illusion that this is a golden opportunity to attain their dreams in in double quick time ignoring the world or a rules-based order. All they have achieved is to put themselves in a nuclear reactor about to go critical. Why are the Chinese committing strategic Hara Kiri? Ask the Chinese! They are suddenly realizing that they were never ten feet tall.

Shikha Chaurasia
Pune, June 19, 2020: After three rounds of intense negotiations between the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China, 10 Indian soldiers who were under Chinese custody were returned to India.

The soldiers were handed over at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) on Thursday evening. After the violent faceoff between the two countries on Monday night in the Galwan river valley region of Ladakh, 10 Indian soldiers were taken into Chinese custody.

The Indian Express newspaper reported that after three hectic rounds of negotiation at the Major General level from Tuesday to Thursday, these soldiers were finally returned to India. According to officials, during previous negotiations, both the sides had agreed to create a ‘buffer zone’ between the LAC and the junction of Galwan and Shyok rivers. The Indian side agreed to stay towards the west of the buffer zone while the Chinese side would stay towards the east of the LAC.

The standoff and clashes had arisen because the Chinese side had started to erect a post on the southern side of the Galwan river in the ‘buffer zone’. The consequence of the clash was the death of 20 Indian soldiers and around 76 were injured.

After the 1967 Sikkim clash and the 1975 Arunachal Pradesh ambush, this is the first time in the last 45 years where the Indian and the Chinese side have suffered casualties on the LAC, which marks the border between the two countries.

Shikha Chaurasia

Alwar (Rajasthan), June 19, 2020: After violent clashes between the Indian and the Chinese armies on the night of 15th June, Surendra Singh who was injured by a Chinese soldier regained consciousness after 15 hours at a hospital in Leh. The clashes happened in the Galwan valley in eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) which marks the border of India and China. Over 1000 Chinese soldiers attacked 250 Indian soldiers. The battle lasted for around 5 hours in the freezing cold water and sub-zero temperature conditions.

Surendra Singh (40) from Naugawa in Alwar district in Rajasthan was attacked by the Chinese soldiers. He was attacked with rods and sticks which were wrapped with barbed wire. He suffered from a blow on his head with a rod wrapped with barbed wire and soon fell unconscious. He was attacked from behind.

He told his family members that as soon as the Chinese soldiers saw an Indian patrolling team coming towards them, they started running away and thought that he had succumbed to his injuries.

The Indian soldiers took Surendra Singh to a military hospital in Leh where he received 12 stitches. He also has a fractured arm. He regained consciousness in the hospital after 15 hours.

Surendra said that the Chinese soldiers had attacked them like cowards if they would have come straight at them, the Indian soldiers would have shown them their true might and pushed them away. He also added that the Indian soldiers are very capable and are specially trained in combating enemy soldiers.

After regaining consciousness, Surendra called his brother Resham Singh on Thursday evening and informed him about his injuries. He told his brother that after being attacked he fell in the water and was rescued by his fellow soldiers. He told his brother that his phone and some papers had fallen into the river.

Resham Singh told mediapersons that his brother has been in the army for 19 years. Because of his posting, they are not able to talk much. Phones are not available all the time due to which his brother is not able to contact the family frequently. After regaining consciousness on Wednesday, the army officers contacted the family and made them talk with each other.

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Does the prime minister’s assertion mean the MEA was wrong to accuse the PLA of crossing the LAC and trying to alter the status quo? In turn, does this mean that India has now handed over the Galwan valley and estuary to the Chinese?

Devirupa Mitra

DIPLOMACY

SECURITY

4 HOURS AGO

 New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s assertion that “no one has intruded into our territory” contradicts statements issued by the Indian government about the circumstances in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed in physical combat with the Chinese army at Galwan, Ladakh this week.

Modi made his statement at the all-party meeting called by the government on Friday to discuss the violence on the India-China border that has taken the relationship between the two countries to their lowest level in over five decades.

“Na koi wahan hamari seema mein ghus aaya hai aur nahi koi ghusa hua hai, na hi hamari koi post kisi dusre ke kabze mein hain (No one has intruded and nor is anyone intruding, nor has any post been captured by someone)”,  he said in closing remarks that were carried on television.

PMO India

✔@PMOIndia

पूर्वी लद्दाख में जो हुआ, इसको लेकर आपने रक्षा मंत्री जी और विदेश मंत्री जी को सुना भी और Presentation को भी देखा । न वहां कोई हमारी सीमा में घुस आया है और न ही कोई घुसा हुआ है, न ही हमारी कोई पोस्ट किसी दूसरे के कब्जे में है: PM @narendramodi

Modi’s statement that there had been no intrusion by the Chinese contradicts the press note of the Ministry of External Affairs issued after external affairs minister S. Jaishankar spoke to his Chinese counterpart, state councillor and foreign minister Wang Yi.

“[The] Chinese side sought to erect a structure in Galwan valley on our side of the LAC [line of actual control],” the press release dated June 17 said. “While this became a source of dispute, the Chinese side took pre-meditated and planned action that was directly responsible for the resulting violence and casualties. It reflected an intent to change the facts on ground in violation of all our agreements to not change the status quo.”

It is clear that if the Chinese sought to “erect a structure” on “our side of the LAC”, it would need to cross the de-facto border.

Modi’s assertion also flies in the face of the first statement issued by the MEA on June 16 right after the Galwan incident in which it said the “violent face-off” had “happened as a result of an attempt by the Chinese side to unilaterally change the status quo there.” (emphasis added).

The MEA’s reference to unilateral attempts to change the status quo at Galwan makes it obvious the territory in question either falls on the Indian side of the LAC or is in an area where Indian and Chinese claim lines overlap.

There are around 23 such ‘areas of differing perception’, or ADPs, along the entire length of the India-China boundary from Ladakh in the west to Arunachal Pradesh in the east but Galwan has not been one of them. Until now, when China has begun making sovereignty claims over the entire valley. Which is why Modi’s claim that Chinese soldiers had not intruded is being seen by the strategic community as not just wrong but also damaging.

Speaking to The Wire, former national security advisor Shivshankar Menon expressed his puzzlement over the prime minister’s choice of words, calling it “an ill-considered and inaccurate statement that concedes territory and the gains of aggression.” “If this is so”, he added, “why and where were our soldiers killed?”

Also Read: In Talks, China Takes Hard Line, Claims All of Galwan Valley, Chunk of Pangong Tso

Pravin Sawhney, editor of FORCE magazine said India would have to pay “a heavy price for the appeasement of China, and soon…. The Chinese see appeasement as a sign of weakness which they will exploit to the fullest.” Like Menon, he too saw the prime minister’s assertion casting a shadow over the clash at Galwan. “How did 20 unarmed Indian soldiers die?” he asked. “Why were 10 soldiers taken captive by PLA? If no one has intruded into our territory, did India transgress into Chinese territory?”

“I can’t figure out why [Modi] should have done this, contradicting his own army top brass and external affairs minister,” a former Indian diplomat with extensive experience dealing with China  told The Wire on condition of anonymity. “There will be a domestic political price to pay no matter how they try and spin it. So there must have been a bigger price to be paid to justify this utterly pathetic climb down. What is that? I can’t believe this was inadvertent.”

Does the prime minister’s assertion that “no one has intruded and nor is anyone intruding” mean the  MEA was wrong to accuse the PLA of crossing the LAC and trying to alter the status quo? In turn does this mean that India has now handed over the Galwan valley to the Chinese?

Already, on June 16, the Chinese PLA western theatre command’s spokesperson, while claiming that Indian soldiers had crossed the LAC and “launched provocative attacks” had also asserted Chinese sovereignty over the Galwan valley area.

The region is, of course, named after the Galwan river, which is named after a Ladakhi explorer, Ghulam Rasool Galwan who discovered a route through the region. His descendants still live in Ladakh. There is no Chinese name for the valley, with Chinese statements also using this nomenclature. The Chinese army claim is also controverted by China’s own maps which draw the boundary/LAC hundreds of metres short of the Galwan river’s confluence with the Shyok river, thus rendering a part of the Galwan valley on the Indian side of the LAC.

After the Chinese foreign ministry also reiterated the claim over the entire Galwan valley, the MEA spokesperson described this as “exaggerated and untenable”.

Also Read: ‘Chinese Behaviour Has Been Very Different From Anything in the Past’: Former NSA Shivshankar Menon

The LAC, the de-facto border, between India and China has never been demarcated or delineated. When India attempted to exchange maps for the western sector in 2012, China brought the process to a halt.

However, the Indian and Chinese sides have had a perception of each other’s claim line based on observing decades of patrolling patterns and border meetings. In the areas of different perception (ADP) on the LAC, where the claim lines of the two sides overlap, Chinese and Indian soldiers regularly come face-to-face, before withdrawing back as per an elaborate system of drills.

In Indian official language, when Chinese soldiers come into these ADPs, this is not considered an “intrusion” but a “transgression” of the LAC. The PM’s statement, however, does not use that term for Chinese actions either.

In any case, Galwan had not been part of this list of ADPs, as India had considered the LAC to be settled as per the withdrawal line of the Chinese after the 1962 war.

China now wants India to keep off Galwan estuary

On Friday, the Chinese foreign ministry published a document that makes it clear Beijing’s claim over Galwan has extended beyond their withdrawal points as depicted in Chinese maps from 1962.

A few hours after the all party meeting where Indian PM made the statement no one had intruded into Indian territory, the Chinese embassy’s spokesperson tweeted a link of a publication that gave China’s “Step-by-Step Account of the Galwan Valley Incident”.

It began by stating that “Galwan Valley is located on the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control in the west section of the China-India boundary”

Galwan’s strategic important is that its heights have a dominating position over the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie road built by India.

China claims that the since April, India has been building infrastructure in Galwan, which led to “representations and protests on multiple occasions”.

On May 6, Indian troops crossed the LAC by night, China alleged, and impeded patrol movements by “building fortifications and barricades”, which led to the first confrontation. The Chinese foreign ministry’s account states that India agreed to withdraw and demolish its “facilities”.

A month later, the senior commander level meeting on June 6 reached a “consensus”, the Chinese foreign ministry claims, that Indian patrols “would not cross the estuary of the Galwan river”.

Also Read: China’s Galwan Valley Gambit is Attempt to Extend Official Claim Line, LAC Westward

This means that the Chinese have extended their claim upto the confluence of the Galwan and the Shyok rivers, near which India’s road to Daulat Beg Oldie passes.

While India has also repeatedly stressed that the understanding reached at June 6 should be implemented, Indian statements don’t provide further details and stated that the agreement was for a process of de-escalation.

Chinese deployments at Pangong lake

Among the three areas of contention in the ongoing tensions, Pangong Tso lake has always been the most volatile and is also in the list of ADPs.

The Indian claim line crosses ‘Finger 8’, one of the mountainous spurs jutting into the lake, while the Chinese states that the LAC lies at Finger 2. Previously, India has patrolled till Finger 6.

This time, the Chinese came down to ‘Finger 4’, where they scuffled with Indian troops on night of May 10-11. As per satellite images, China has changed the status quo at the Fingers and built “substantial’ structures.

According to Nathan Ruser of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), the Chinese have constructed 500 structures, fortified trenches and a new boatshed over 20 kilometres between Fingers 4 and 5.

At Hot Springs, Ruser analyses that satellite imagery from late May shows that there are two dirt tracks that go into “Indian-controlled territory”. “There are no PLA positions on the Indian side of the LAC; however, these tracks suggest that PLA forces are regularly making incursions into Indian territory, at a remote part of the LAC that is 10 kilometres from the nearest Indian positions,” he claims.

“In the current situation, military-to-military talks are underway, and there is a possibility that discussions will be held on June 6 at the level of senior military officers. I discussed this with the Army Chief today,” Rajnath Singh said.

This report has been modified to reflect some recent developments

After two weeks of downplaying the intrusions by thousands of Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers into Ladakh, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has admitted that “large numbers” of Chinese troops had crossed into India’s side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) — the de facto border that both countries have mutually agreed to respect.

“It is true that Chinese soldiers (are) on the LAC. There are differences in both sides’ perceptions of where the frontier runs. And the Chinese soldiers have arrived there in large numbers,” stated Rajnath in a television interview on Tuesday.

“India is doing what it needs to do in the circumstances,” said the defence minister, while declining to spell out the measures.

Sources say that India has reacted to the surprise Chinese move by rushing troops to the main intrusion points in the Galwan River Valley in northern Ladakh and the Pangong Tso Lake in central Ladakh – where at least 5,000 PLA soldiers have entered and are preparing roads and concrete bunkers to consolidate their presence.

However, Indian troops have been instructed not to inflame the situation by attacking or outflanking PLA positions.

Rajnath voiced confidence that the festering confrontation could be resolved through military-to-military talks and diplomatic engagement between New Delhi and Beijing, as was achieved during the Doklam confrontation in 2017.

ALSO READ: China must use diplomacy to settle border issues with India: US House panel

“In the current situation, military-to-military talks are underway, and there is a possibility that discussions will be held on June 6 at the level of senior military officers. I discussed this with the Army Chief today,” he said.

Rajnath emphatically refused to classify China as an enemy. He said that, while India would never hurt the self-respect and sovereignty of any country, “If anyone violates our sovereignty or tries to make India bow its head, this country would respond with force.”

Meanwhile, on the border, there has been no Chinese withdrawal or concession. The face-off continues at four locations. In the Galwan River Valley, troops are engaged in skirmishes at the junction of Galwan and Shyok rivers, Patrolling Point 14, 15, and 17 and at Gogra Top. In the Pangong Tso sector, Indian troops are in contact with the Chinese at the so-called Fox Hole Peninsula.

ALSO READ: ‘Remove China Apps’ crosses 50 lakh downloads amid anti-China sentiments

However, in a reverse for India, China has established full control over the Finger Heights, Green Top, Finger 4 and Finger 5. Since the LAC earlier ran along Finger 8, Chinese troops have captured the area between Finger 8 and Finger 4, moving the LAC several kilometres to the west.

In addition, over the preceding fortnight, the Chinese have black-topped the road between Finger 8 and Finger 4. The PLA had constructed a dirt track in this area in 1999 when Indian units were pulled out of this area during the Kargil conflict.

Worryingly, government sources, backed by satellite intelligence, are now reporting a large number of Chinese armoured vehicles in the Depsang area, near Daulat Beg Oldi, where Indian and Chinese troops had confronted each other for three weeks in 2013, before mutually disengaging.

Referencing that incident, as well as similar confrontations in Chumar (2014) and Doklam (2017), Singh said: “There is something constantly going on along the Sino-Indian border… sometimes there have been such tensions that firearms have been snatched between them. China should think about this seriously.”

Correction

In response to the report, “Rajnath admits to sizeable China intrusion” (published on June 3), the Press Information Bureau has clarified that the defence minister “was referring to differing perceptions of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and presence of Chinese troops”. The statement, PIB said, had been misinterpreted as if Chinese troops had entered the Indian side of the LAC. We stand corrected.

It is possible that Chinese suppliers will be replaced by Indians, not Koreans. I once asked the owner of a large retailing chain why he could not encourage more businessmen in India to become his suppliers, so that he would not have to import quite so much from China and elsewhere. His response was that India had virtually stopped manufacturing even the most ordinary goods. And even if they did make things locally, at what cost? One doesn’t know, but it is almost certain to be higher. The end result might be that the producers of things (who are busy taking out full-page ads in celebration) make money at the expense of those dancing and jumping consumers who end up paying more.

And what if China hits back? India’s imports from China are equal to about a fifth of total Indian manufacturing. If Chinese products have no ready substitutes domestically, the risk is of disruption along the supply chain. In the case of some products (like strategic materials) where it has market dominance, China could even deny sales to India as it did once with Japan during a dispute over some islands off the Chinese coast. At the least, sourcing from alternative suppliers would be at a much higher cost.

Also read: ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ needs both import-substitution and export industrialisation

The free trade argument is not a matter of religion. Britain became a free trader only in the mid-19^th century, when it had established a clear lead in the Industrial Revolution. The United States, once the champion of free traders, is shifting position now (“America First!”). So import substitution (or self-reliance) is a valid tactic — if you know how to use it. Other countries have managed successful import substitution, as Naushad Forbes wrote earlier this week. But, as he showed, they did it by making sure that tariff support was temporary and reducing with time; those who failed to become efficient and competitive in a defined period would have to shut down — thereby ensuring market discipline. India, predictably, is doing it differently. And it remains a soft state, vulnerable to special interests. So it will become a high-cost economy again, and Indian manufacturing even more uncompetitive. The lessons learnt on the way to 1991 have been forgotten.

The point about trade is that both seller and buyer are supposed to gain. Bring politics into it and the picture gets clouded. The most defective of all positions (one used often by President Donald Trump, and by India in the past) is to seek trade parity with each trading partner. You might as well ask for the return of barter, or of rupee trade arrangements! India could have a trade deficit with oil exporters, and at the same time a surplus with the United States. And what it loses on merchandise trade it could gain through trade in services. If the overall balance is fine, or the deficit neutralised by capital inflows (as it has been for India), there is no need to complain of injury.

By all means be tactical. Don’t allow China access to strategic markets, like telecom products, because of the possibility of spyware mischief. Also exclude China from product segments where the quality record is said to have been poor, such as thermal power plant equipment. And if China is looking for ways to keep out Indian pharmaceuticals or software services, hit back in the same coin. Even cancel railway contracts if project completion is hopelessly delayed, but bear in mind the time taken to get alternative bidders. In short, aim carefully and don’t shoot yourself in the foot.

Also read: India can’t free-ride others to limit China. It needs to lead the containment strategy

As many as 20 Indian soldiers, including the Commanding Officer of 16 Bihar Colonel Santosh Babu, were killed in action in Monday’s clash.

The Army had issued a statement Thursday saying “it is clarified that no Indian troops are missing in action”. While it did not mention the release, the statement was a clear indication that the soldiers have returned.

Sources in the defence and security establishment said the main focus of the high-level talks since Tuesday had been the release of the Indian soldiers. The issue was also discussed during the diplomatic parleys going on between the two countries.

Official sources also told ThePrint that it was always the understanding that information about such sensitive matters will not be released unless both sides come to an “amicable solution”, which is the release of the 10 soldiers.e

The announcement by the Ministry of External Affairs that no soldiers were missing in action was made only after it was ascertained through diplomatic channels that China would be releasing them, the sources said.

Both sides have held several rounds of talks at diplomatic and military levels to ease tensions and are now looking to soon have a dialogue on the border affairs under the ‘Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on Border Affairs (WMCC)’.

Also read: India, China agree to implement 6 June ‘disengagement understanding’ to ensure peace at LAC

Military-level talks to continue 

ThePrint had reported Tuesday that several Indian soldiers taken captive by China were returned following talks at a higher level on the same day.

However, it was learnt Wednesday morning that 10 soldiers are still missing. By afternoon, it was learnt that the 10 unaccounted for were in Chinese custody.

Sources said the Chinese had presented the captive soldiers to the Indian team Wednesday to show they were fine and not tortured.

According to the sources, all 10 soldiers walked back with the Indian team Thursday evening, indicating there were no major injuries.

The sources said the military-level talks will continue Friday as part of the earlier process to ease the tensions.

While there is a heavy build-up by the Chinese on its side of the Galwan Valley, the Finger areas of Pangong continue to be a problem.

The Chinese have come in till Finger 4 and have built structures to block the Indian patrol from moving ahead from that point till Finger 8, which is the LAC for India.

Latest satellite imagery reveals that massive construction has been done by China in this area.

Also read: India likely to review rules of engagement at LAC after Galwan Valley clash

Apaches were brought to provide close air support to the ground forces, while Chinooks were brought to enable faster deployment of troops and equipment.

The increased deployment also includes regular Combat Air Patrols, besides flying a host of surveillance aircraft, including by intelligence agencies and the Navy’s P8I aircraft, defence sources said.

Mirage 2,000 fighter aircraft, which carried out the Balakot air strikes last year, have also been moved to bases near the Ladakh region from Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh, where it is based.

This has been done to ensure they can fly over in the Ladakh region within minutes of taking off, sources said.

Air Force chief Air Chief Marshal R.K.S. Bhadauria has reportedly made a hush visit to Leh and Srinagar air bases Wednesday evening after high-level meetings with the government.

ThePrint had earlier reported that the Navy has sent out additional ships from its eastern fleet for deployment in the Indian Ocean region.

These developments came even as the Army moved in more ground forces and other assets to Ladakh.

On 2 June, ThePrint reported the Army moved in about two additional division strength-level forces to the region. Sources said these numbers have now increased further.

While the 14 Corps, the Army division that looks after Ladakh, is sufficiently armed in terms of artillery, armour, men and reserves, more soldiers have been brought in to create large reserves and forward deployment.

Also read: 1954 Panchsheel pact to Galwan Valley ‘violence’ — India-China relations in last 7 decades

‘Assets are there to be used’

The IAF has remained tight-lipped about the movement of its assets.

However, sources said the Apache helicopters have been deployed in Ladakh and that Chinooks are already doing the work they are meant for.

“The assets are there to be used. These are tactical matters. Apache was brought to provide close air support to the ground forces. Chinooks were brought to enable faster deployment of troops and equipment,” a source said.

Also read: China playing victim after attacking Indian soldiers at Galwan. Delhi must not fall for it