Ajay Banerjee

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, August 14

It is unlikely that the People’s Liberation Army of China will attend the ceremonial border personnel meeting with the Indian Army tomorrow.The two countries are locked in a military standoff at the Doklam plateau since June 16.As per the laid down protocol, the Indian Army, on August 15, hosts the People’s Liberation Army of China for a ceremonial border personnel meeting at five designated meeting points along the 3,488-km Line of Actual Control (LAC).Top sources in Delhi confirmed tonight that Beijing might not send the PLA troops as this could indicate a thaw. By not attending the meeting, China would indicate a status quo in terms of the standoff.The previous such ceremonial meeting that was to be held on August 1 did not materialise. China was to host the meeting.Ceremonial meetings are not like the usual flag-meetings, these are events to know each other socially, there is lunch hosted and a cultural show. There are five such meeting points along the LAC and ceremonial meetings are hosted at all these points, Depsang in sub-sector north and Sappangur Gap (both on eastern Ladakh), Nathu La in Sikkim and Bumla and Kibithoo in Arunachal Pradesh. The last flag-meeting between two high-ranking military officers of India and China failed to end the stalemate on August 11.A Major General-rank officer was leading the Indian team and was matched by an equal rank officer from the Chinese army.The two sides stuck to their stated stands. India asked China to end its road construction activity and China asked India to withdraw from what it said was its territory. India fears Beijing is aiming to make a road to cross east of the Torsa nullah and reach the Jampheri ridge from where it gets a clear view of the Siliguri corridor, the narrow sliver of land that connects North-East with mainland India.

As the standoff at Doklam Plateau in Bhutan, the 89 square kilometres area which China lays claim to, enters the ninth week  and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval back from Beijing,  the Chinese game plan is becoming increasingly clearer. In early Jun 2017, China had taken Bhutan and India by surprise with aggressive moves to build a road through the Doklam Plateau to the southern end of the Chumbi Valley near Trijunction. Doklam is disputed between China and Bhutan; India is not a party to that dispute. However, Doklam lies on the eastern side of the Chumbi Valley opposite our defences on the western side of the same valley. Any construction activity there changes the strategic picture with enhanced Chinese capability to operate against the southern end of Chumbi. India is even more sensitive to the extension of the road because that provides capability to the Chinese to threaten the Siliguri Corridor, commonly called the Chicken’s Neck, lying fifty kilometres further south but through some very rugged terrain. 

When Bhutan’s protests did not work, it requested India for help which India is duty bound to extend under provisions of the 2007 India Bhutan Friendship Treaty. Elements of the Indian Army moved into the Bhutanese territory and without firing a shot became an obstacle to further Chinese advance along the road. The kind of jostling seen on amateur videos was reminiscent of the Nathula standoff of 1967 although the latter was an eyeball to eyeball contact with bayonets at the ready. At Nathula there were heavy casualties on both sides, although more on the Chinese side, after the gung ho Chinese decision to use force to stop the Indian Army from constructing a wire fence to demarcate the exact border alignment at Nathula post. 

Unlike Nathula 1967, the Chinese response this time has been in different domains. First it refused to allow the annual  Mansarovar Yatra to proceed from Nathula on lame pretexts. Thereafter it commenced a vitriolic psychological campaign in its state controlled media, such as the like of which has not been witnessed in many years. The choice of words was actually unbecoming of a responsible power who is also a member of P5. That vitriol grew worse by the day and has yet to seize. Third, it conducted a brigade level fire power exercise in Tibet to project its readiness to employ the military option and intimidate India. While no Chinese mobilization or troop concentration has been reported there were enough threats to project as if a war was about to break out. The issue for us to examine is whether this was an accidental and unrealized event which just spiraled out of hand or was it deliberate.

Strategic military sense would have dictated to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) that attainment of whatever political objectives it had set would not be easy. By all reckoning Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambition of removing all opposition and obtaining and enhancing his influence substantially at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in Autumn 2017 is the core reason for the maverick Chinese actions. Xi Jinping has emerged as one of the most powerful Chinese leaders in the post Deng Xiao Ping era and is actually ambitious enough to attempt overtaking the image of even the father of China’s modernization. However, the projection of diplomatic, economic and military strength is an essential element of Xi Jinping’s strategy. The politico economic strategy has been largely displayed with the image building Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) conference in Beijing in May 2017; the attendance by even Japan and the US was a major diplomatic victory for Xi Jinping. This is further enhanced with the US reliance on China to rein in North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and prevent his threatening gestures. Xi Jinping had earlier initiated a host of measures to strengthen the effectiveness of the Chinese Armed Forces and reorganized the structure. The only thing perhaps left for Xin Jinping was to display China’s military might a tad more than just at parades, under his leadership; perhaps perceived by him as a virtual certification of his contribution to the Chinese nation. Earlier he had intimidated and tested the international community’s will on the issue of South China Sea by refusing to accept and implement the decision of the international tribunal. However, display of military intimidation there is fraught with higher risk.

The choice of Chumbi Valley was perhaps triggered by the decision of both India and Bhutan to avoid attendance of the BRI conference in Beijing; two nations noticeable by their absence and both being China’s immediate neighbors. China hoped that the proximity of the trigger point to the strategically vulnerable Siliguri Corridor would force both India and Bhutan to capitulate against Chinese demands and pressure. There doesn’t appear any intent to trigger major hostilities because there could be no guarantee of success in a localized exchange and an unpredictable war could go out of hand at this crucial moment.  In the worst case scenario of such an exchange the scope could quickly be extended to other zones in Ladakh, Central Sector or Arunachal Pradesh thus causing greater intimidation without going to war. It probably was appreciated by the PLA that India would unlikely risk a conflagration so close to its vulnerability and would buckle under pressure. It perhaps did not think through to the last order implications that an extended Indian resistance and acceptance of mutual withdrawal would amount to a strategic Indian victory. That is the likely reason one can ascribe today to a possibly long standoff extending into autumn because the Chinese cannot afford to accept withdrawal before the autumn meeting of the 19^th National Congress. That is also the reason why some lower level intimidation by the PLA is likely to continue in other areas; Barahoti in Central Sector has already seen an incursion two weeks ago. It could happen in the traditional areas of Ladakh and Arunachal; the idea being to boost the eye ball attraction through propaganda.

Those who were imagining the feasibility of the triggering of a full spectrum war between India and China must be clear that under no circumstance does such a showdown add to political objectives that China seeks in the long run or Xi Jinping’s current strategy. It knows that India has no major political ambitions, at least for the current. China has enough problems to contend with in terms of Japan and South East Asia. It should be pragmatic enough to ensure that creating another major adversary extending into the Indian Ocean Region serves Chinese interests no purpose. China’s growth story still revolves around the security of its Sea Lines of Communication (SLsOC) which are vulnerable and India can make them even more vulnerable, if it chooses to. Even a short limited spectrum war involving exchanges on the border and possibly one or two exchanges of surface to surface missiles, more as messaging, is unlikely to achieve any objectives and would show China in poor light with inability to press for its objectives.

This analysis would be incomplete without a positive word on the Indian strategy of ‘sticking it out’. Quietly, without unnecessary bluster, India has prevented a showdown and yet displayed strategic resolve. This is one of the most difficult things to achieve in strategic affairs. What must continue is the dignified and quiet demeanor that has been on display from the Indian side. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s recent speech in Parliament has been the most appropriate display of sensible discretion. Sometimes victory lies in the realm of silence and dignity. The analyses in the media by knowledgeable analysts have also been shorn of bluster but yet fairly accurate.

Next month’s BRICS summit to be held in the Chinese city of Xiamen and to be attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is being viewed with much interest. However, China has often displayed its ability to keep issues of concern quite well separated. BRICS is more about economics and although the sensitivity of India’s non-attendance of the BRI conference may continue to rankle China it is unlikely that it will not adopt a business as usual attitude towards India at the upcoming conference. However, memory of the visit of then Foreign Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to China in 1979 with the war on Vietnam launched even with his presence there, needs to be recalled.

The last thing the Indian media or the Indian state should do is to celebrate prematurely. Nothing has yet been achieved and classically a stalemate continues, probably will continue for some time. The only thing to be positive about is that war was almost there and yet not there.  It should be enough of a signal to us that it is time to seriously look at our defence capability and infrastructure and review the long dead military transformation which was to take place in the first decade of the millennium.

(The writer is a former General Officer Commanding 15 Corps, now associated with the Vivekanand International Foundation and Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies)

Beijing, August 4

In an unusual move, a Chinese strategic analyst has questioned Beijing’s “national obsession” with Arunachal Pradesh, saying that the state is only a “chicken rib” and hardly an “asset” for the country.

China claims Arunachal Pradesh as “South Tibet” and in April Beijing had announced Chinese “standardised” names for six places in retaliation to Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama’s visit there.

The Chinese state media had said the move to rename the places was aimed at reaffirming China’s claim over the state.

But Union minister of state for home affairs Kiren Rijiju, who accompanies the Dalai Lama to Arunachal, had made clear that the state is “an inseparable part of India”.

The Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal was the seventh since he fled from Tibet through Tawang and sought refuge in India.

“Although China and India have been in a rocky relationship over the disputed territory for years, the disputed territory, which has been a national obsession, is hardly an asset to China,” Wang Tao Tao said.

“In realistic terms the area is just a chicken rib for China,” Wang wrote on the popular Chinese website zhihu.com — which is akin to Quora — mostly covers security matters.

Interestingly, the article came at a time when India and China have been engaged in a border standoff for more than a month after Chinese troops tried to construct a road in Doklam area in the Sikkim sector. India has protested the move saying it would allow China to cut India’s access to its northeastern states.

Social media websites and blogs — like the zhihu.com — have become popular over the years in China, where millions access them on their mobile phones.

“The territorial dispute between China and India is essentially meaningless, because this disputed territory for India and China, not only difficult to development, but the moral, economic, political and management costs are extremely high,” Wang said.

“In this case, it is hard for China to actually go to war with India for these chicken ribs as long as it does not hamper security interests,” he said, suggesting that any contest over Arunachal will have adverse impact on rest of the Tibet potentially strengthen separatist forces.

“Objectively looking, the potential for separation in Tibet could become more powerful,” he said.

Wang said China has failed to fully address Tibetan identity issues.

“While the land of southern Tibet is very different from the bitter cold in northern Tibet, agriculture is relatively developed, will also virtually strengthen the ability of Tibetans to support themselves,” Wang said.

Moreover, the area is vulnerable to attacks and cannot provide superior strategic depth and security interests for China’s inland like the vast Tibetan plateau, he said. PTI

Tribune file photo

Arun Joshi

Tribune News Service

Jammu, July 19

The Indian Army has set a deadline of September-end to eliminate most of the terrorists, if not all, in south Kashmir with the full backing of political groups of all hues in the Valley, highly-placed sources have told The Tribune.They said the Army has “complete political support of the government and the Opposition in Kashmir”.“All of them are nationalists notwithstanding their articulation of different nature, which may sound offensive to the sensitivity of the times, situation and the place,” a top-ranking officer observed.(Follow The Tribune on Facebook; and Twitter @thetribunechd)Having realised the current volatile situation in south Kashmir, that has become synonymous with the Kashmir problem at the international level, the Army has embarked on a “surrender or face bullet” aggressive strategy.South Kashmir has posed a serious challenge to the security apparatus and has also changed the narrative after the July 8, 2016 killing of militant commander Burhan Wani.The Army has taken on terrorists in a big way with the help of the local police. The impression of “terrorists being more powerful” is being dispelled by the frequent anti-terror operations. There are approximately 100 terrorists in south Kashmir and many have been eliminated, including top-ranking ones like Sabzar Bhat, Bashir Lashkari and Junaid Matoo.“This is what we are supposed to do and that’s what we are doing. Our primary objective is to remove the atmosphere of fear,” the commander said.

IAF’s MIG-29K Fulcrum flies over US Navy ship Nimitz in the Bay of Bengal near Chennai coast on Monday. PTI

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, July 17

The eight-day joint naval exercise ‘Malabar’ between India, the US and Japan, ended in the Bay of Bengal today with all three navies operating in tandem to hunt submarines, land helicopters on ships of other countries and formation flying of fighter jets that had taken off from giant seaborne aircraft carriers.Indian Navy’s Russian-built MiG-29K jets that had taken off from INS Vikramaditya and the American Boeing F/18-A super hornets which had taken off from USS Nimitz flew in tandem. A MiG overflying an American carrier was a novelty in itself.The last four days of the exercise were the ‘sea phase’ during which warships of the three navies participated in the naval manoeuvres at sea. The movement of ships swiftly at close quarters is as an essential aspect of operations at sea for fleet. It streamlines procedure in ship handling and communications.All three countries carried out what are called cross-deck landings by helicopters. This is for joint operations, if needed. US helicopters landed onboard INS Sahyadri of India and JN Sazanami of Japan. The helicopter from JN Sazanami undertook flying operations from INS Sahyadri and USS Shoup.Despite the rough seas and challenging weather, the ships and aircraft of the three navies carried out their assigned tasks in a cohesive manner. An Indian Navy Seaking helicopter undertook transfer of Japanese personnel to INS Vikramaditya as part of crew exchange programme during the exercise. It was followed by flying operations undertaken by the helicopters of the US Navy ships.Started in 1992 between India and US, the exercise has grown in scope, complexity and participation into a multifaceted exercise.

Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti with Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi on Saturday. PTI

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, July 15

Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti today met Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh and discussed the overall security situation in the state, particularly in the aftermath of the terror attack on Amarnath pilgrims, leaving seven dead.During the meeting, which lasted for half-an-hour, a Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) official said, the Chief Minister shared the details on the steps taken by the state government to maintain peace in the Kashmir valley and specifics on the security arrangement to ensure the security of Amarnath pilgrims.Blaming “external forces” for creating trouble in the state, Mehbooba said, “Kashmir issue is not a law and order problem. It is happening because of external forces. The ongoing fight is a handiwork of external forces and now unfortunately China is also trying to meddle into it.”“The attack on pilgrims was designed to create communal tension in the country. But I am grateful that the entire country, political parties and the Central government, especially the Home Minister, helped us in overcoming the tragedy,” she said.Asked if there was any discussion on Article 370, she said: “When the goods and services tax (GST) was passed, the President reaffirmed that Article 370 will be taken in account… Article 370 is linked to the sentiments of people of Kashmir.”Seven pilgrims were killed by militants in Anantnag district while returning from the Amarnath cave shrine on Monday.Security agencies engaged in anti-militancy operations in the state have been told to implement security plans with full vigour, the MHA official said.So far, more than 1.86 lakh pilgrims have visited the high altitude Himalayan shrine.As many as 21,000 paramilitary personnel in addition to state police forces and two battalions of the Army have been deployed for security of the pilgrimage routes.The number of paramilitary personnel deployed this year is 9,500 more than last year.Four districts of the state – Pulwama, Kulgam, Shopian and Anantnag – have been on the boil since the killing of Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani in an encounter with security forces on July 8, 2016. The unrest has resumed since the April 9 bypoll to the Srinagar Lok Sabha seat.

(With inputs from agencies)

Police personnel clear a road blocked by protesters after the funeral prayers for one of the three militants, who were killed in a fierce overnight encounter with security forces in Budgam district, at Hyderpora in Srinagar on Wednesday. PTI

Srinagar, July 12

Two soldiers were killed today as Pakistani troops, violating the ceasefire, resorted to firing along the Line of Control (LoC) in the remote mountainous Keran sector of Kupwara. The Army did not elaborate on the intensity of the firepower by the Pakistani troops. Since the past few weeks, the Pakistani army has been shelling border villages and forwards posts of the Indian Army in Rajouri and Poonch districts of Jammu.(Follow The Tribune on Facebook; and Twitter @thetribunechd)Meanwhile, the security forces have launched a hunt for Pakistani national and Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) commander Abu Ismail, the brain behind the terror attack on Amarnath pilgrims on Monday, a senior police official said. The government has sounded the “highest alert” across Jammu and Kashmir.Proactive operations have been launched, mainly in south Kashmir, to track down Ismail with investigations,  including communication intercepts, pointing to his involvement in the attack.The official said the Anantnag attack appeared to be in retaliation against the killing of several LeT terrorists, including top commander Bashir Lashkari, earlier this month.”Frustrated at back-to-back losses in the counter-insurgency operations over the past month or so, they are now attacking civilians and tourists,” he said. A Home Ministry official in Delhi indicated that the anti-terror operations would be stepped up.Meanwhile, a central ministerial team comprising Minister of State in the PMO Jitendra Singh and Minister of State for Home Affairs Hansraj Ahir held extensive discussions with the security top brass, Governor NN Vohra and Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti.They discussed the security situation in detail before a security review with the local Army commander, Chief Secretary, the police chief and senior CRPF and BSF officers.

Some senior citizens are happily challenging the notions that old age is a slowdown in the bend of life. They are being equally productive in this later innings while reinventing themselves in new arenas

Photo for representational purpose only. iStock

Geetu Vaid

Love for the green: Maj Gen C. S. Bewli has set up a society to create awareness for cacti and also penned a book on it after hanging his boots

So, what will we do after retirement?” The ball for a discussion was set rolling with this question among a motley group of friends in their late forties. Nothing surprising in it as the reminders of retirement can confront one unexpectedly. Retirement like mortality is a hard fact that each one of us is bound to face sooner or later. Only difference, however, is that there is a full stop when you think of end of life whereas a long (that’s what most of us believe) road remains to be traversed at the end of working life or retirement.

The surprising element, in this discussion, however, was that of all the options discussed about post-retirement plans not even one revolved around starting a new venture or doing something that one hadn’t done during the long work life. Most of the suggestions were the staid and “easy’ variations of the work that one was already doing. The main concern was to do something to stay busy, as well as earn a modest sum.

While many may merrily chime that ’60 is the new 40, but the enthusiasm is woefully limited to looking good, going for a run and wearing dapper clothes or maintaining a strict “work day” schedule after 60. Mention work or suggestion to start a new venture or attempt something different and you get to hear the refrain “this is no age to start anything new, or learning new things at this age will be ridiculed”.

In a society ruled more by mindsets and stereotypes, the shackles of age are a convenient refuge to distance oneself from anything strenuous or mentally taxing after retirement. This, not only alienates and feeds a feeling of redundancy, but maybe the main reason behind the cases of depression and ill treatment of the elderly by their progeny.

These perceptions and attitudes make the stories of those who dared to follow their passion and chase the dreams that had long been put on the backburner, worth sharing.

Reinventing oneself and redefining retirement is an art that can fill colour and vigour in what truly is the second innings, maintains Dinesh Singh, while sharing his experience of starting a new venture after 60. An engineer by profession, he is a well-known name in business circles as the force behind the Energo Group and Energo Engineering Projects Limited (EEPL). But opting to tread a completely different path of bringing different art forms in public domain, he launched NavrasaDuende at the age of 62. “The arts have been a lifelong passion for me and with my own venture, I have the opportunity to bring global arts as an entertainment to the people of India and kindle a passion in them much like my own. For me, beginning an entrepreneurial venture only required two things — a passion to achieve my dreams and the belief that there is no deadline or age limit”, he recounts.

If it was the lifelong passion for art that goaded Singh to launch his venture, then the childhood dream of writing is what has made noted businessman Nidhi Dalmia to sidestep account books to pen a romantic story. The scion of one of the oldest business families of the country, Dalmia has taken baby steps in the world of books with Harp at the age of 69. “I have wanted to write since I was a schoolboy.  I remember my best friend wouldn’t believe me when I used to share my dream of being a writer.  He would say, ‘You are from a top industrial family, you will be an industrialist’. I wanted to write in addition to running a business, not in place of it”, says this business tycoon. With degrees from Oxford and Harvard under his belt, he took a decades-long detour to the world of business before finally telling a story close to his heart.

If it was a shift from passion for business to passion for words for Dalmia, for Maj Gen C. S. Bewli it was the love and commitment for olive green to that for green gardens that redefined his post-retirement life.  A qualified mechanical engineer, Major General Bewli had an illustrious career in the Army spanning 38 years. He, however, dodged several job offers after retirement to devote all his energies to his life-long passion — the love for plants. “After retiring in 2011 many good offers came my way. But retirement being a life-redefining milestone for me, I refused all as I wished to do things which were close to my heart. To fulfill my cherished aspirations and to pursue a lifelong passion with my favourite activities, I prepared a wish list to write on subjects that are seldom touched by Indian authors — cacti, bonsai, succulents and creativity”. Six years down the line he has already set up a society to spread love and awareness for cacti and succulents, besides teaching the art of bonsai creation to people in the northern region. He has also penned a book on cacti and is in the process of writing another one on the bonsai culture.

Their stories may be different but the underlying thread of challenging their comfort zone and a refusal to buckle under the weight of age is what brings them to a common platform.

Ask him about the age factor and the fear of entering unchartered territory, and Singh is quick to counter question with, “When did we set a deadline on pursuing our goals? Who came up with these restrictions? It’s ironic that several people chase a career up to the age of 60 years, moving from one job and position to another, yet are extremely skeptical when it comes to pursuing an entrepreneurial calling later in their life. What causes us to impose these restrictions is a mix of both psychological and cultural factors. It stems from this long-perpetuated idea that entrepreneurship is a domain that is best suited for the young and the agile”, he explains.

“I honestly don’t think age has anything to do with following your passion. When I started writing Harp a few years back, I was at a stage of my life where I could devote my time and energy in fulfilling my childhood passion. My age has not restricted me from stepping into this new challenge, on the contrary I feel my age and experience has provided me with invaluable insight which I have incorporated in my novel”, says Dalmia.

“One does not retire on reaching a certain age nor is it a factor in starting something new. Retirement is simply a switchover from a primary job into something else and, therefore, accept it as a desire to keep living actively,” adds Gen Bewli.

“Actually, age and experience add far more credibility to your personality and intelligence. Hence, it is quite surprising when people tend to think of age as a restrictive factor when it comes to following their dreams”, says Singh.

“Young may grow old, but youthfulness and passion can keep you young forever. Even at the age of 65+ Zakir Hussain (the tabla maestro) is youthful and is considered Youth Icon. One should not be slave of oneself; ability to break free of oneself on a continuing basis is what keeps freshness in thoughts, ideas, and zest for life”.

Following one’s dreams and creating a purpose in life is the duende that Singh is aspiring to create. Redefining retirement is to be in a happy place where no dream is unachievable and the fear of mortality doesn’t overpower the spirit of creativity and life. “I know, there may not be enough time to achieve what I want, but my new venture assures me a lifetime of employment and engagement in something that never tires me”, signs off Singh.