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China’s Troops at Doklam This Winter Is Just Strategic Messaging by Lty Gen SYED ATA HASNAIN

The 72-day-long Doklam standoff between India and China may have ended but its effects will be felt for some time. When relationships at the border deteriorate, all kinds of issues become triggers, not necessarily for a show of arms but more for the purpose of strategic communication.

Also Read: Doklam Standoff Explained: Who’s Involved & Why’s India Bothered?

Is China Anticipating a Threat from India?

The recent crash of an Indian drone on a reconnaissance mission, somewhere along the India-Tibet border in the state of Sikkim, has upped the Chinese propaganda in the state-controlled media. The incident gave enough leeway for China to unleash its propaganda machinery and information warfare, all of which, in modern parlance, is referred to as communication strategy. The intent is to pick up such issues and browbeat India in order to curb initiatives from our side, thus granting China moral ascendancy.

Interestingly, alongside the incident of the crash of the Indian drone, there are media reports suggesting the presence of 1,800 soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) camping at Doklam for winter, something never done in the past. China has improved infrastructure by constructing two helipads and many store sheds and prefabricated huts for winter accommodation.

Roads in the area are also reported to have been improved. Is China anticipating an Indian threat or attempting to intimidate the Indian Army and the Indian political leadership?

Also Read: Lessons from Doklam: Not China, Not India, But Bhutan’s the Winner

Is This Merely ‘Advance Winter Stocking’?

India’s patience in dealing with Doklam received international praise. In military terms, India advanced the dates for the annual operational alert of the Siliguri-based 33 Corps.

The Advance Winter Stocking (AWS) as part of the annual logistics exercise continued except for a precautionary increase in vigil. Barring the additional troops being staged forward, nothing else seems to have been done. This appears to be the correct strategy.

The presence of less than a regiment (brigade in PLA’s parlance) of the PLA in an encampment mode, no doubt, with improved infrastructure should not necessarily intimidate the Indian Army. Of course, the issue need not be trivialised to presume that all is well, because Doklam remains a serious issue between the two neighbours who are perceived to be competitors for power in their own right.

What India should be aware of and competent to deal with is the level of intimidation by China, both politically as well as militarily. In this politico-military domain, it needs to be understood that the Chumbi Valley is not necessarily the most suitable area for China to optimise its operational capability for a major showdown.

Encampments and increased troop presence do not necessarily mean a higher optimisation of war-based capability. There is a big difference between the tactically deployed troops and the encamped ones.

Also Read: China Hints at Keeping Sizeable Troop Presence Near Doklam 

Muscle-Flexing at Doklam

The PLA’s continued presence in winter at Doklam, against normal practice, is more a political ego issue. China probably perceives that the BRICS summit at Xiamen (China) 0n 7 Sep 2017 and the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in Oct 2017 prevented China from being able to play out the Doklam standoff as per its strategy.

While India too played down the termination of the standoff and did not make any intimidating statements, the final status probably did not satisfy the Chinese. A full withdrawal of Chinese resources from Doklam would have communicated an abdication of its intent and in its perception, given India an unacceptable psychological strategic advantage.

It would probably also communicate that India was morally correct, something extremely difficult for China to accept, especially with the run of events in Asia in general.

Nations engaged in a dispute with China will take a cue from Doklam and flex their muscles, a situation that is unacceptable to Beijing. In light of this, reinforced military presence in the Doklam area would convey that China had not abandoned its quest to build the road in an area it claims its own and that the world has not seen the last of Doklam.

Also Read: Army Moves Troops of Sukna-Based 33 Corps to India-China Border

Strategic Engagement with China

For India, there is a need for both political and military circumspection as well as close synchronisation to read the indicators. China’s characteristic vitriol has been slightly toned down but this is likely to increase as the summer of 2018 approaches. Our military activity needs to be calibrated to the extent of being balanced with no unnecessary intimidation; we need not be overly defensive either. However, political engagement with China needs to be enhanced with specific reference to the Doklam standoff.

The circumstances post the disengagement at Doklam did not give sufficient opportunity for focused engagement as both sides parried the issue. Diplomatic niceties alongside a few barbs have continued but if Doklam is not to become a thorn once again, a more considered strategic engagement with China – political, diplomatic and military – might be needed.

To an extent, it is already happening, as is evident from the type of strategic seminars being organised in Delhi marked by the presence of Chinese academics. India’s messaging needs to be clear; there are enough border protocols for resolution of the border issue and India will abide by these – but military intimidation aiming to cause strategic disadvantage, as was attempted in Doklam, is not something India will accept.


Ex-serviceman found dead in Moga village

Moga, December 16

A 52-year-old former Army man was allegedly beaten to death by some unidentified persons at Maur Nau Abaad village in Baghapurana sub-division of the district, the police said.The body of Gurbachan Singh was recovered from the outskirts of the village. His brother Harjit Singh said he had gone the village gurdwara in the morning and later his body was found. The police said a case of murder under Section 302 had been registered against unknown persons. — TNS


Deadline for linking of Aadhaar with various services extended

Deadline for linking of Aadhaar with various services extended
The apex court said the Constitution Bench would commence final hearing from January 17 on the petition challenging the Aadhaar scheme itself.

New Delhi, December 15The Supreme Court on Thursday extended till March 31 next year the deadline for mandatory linking of Aadhaar with various services and welfare schemes.A five-judge Constitution Bench headed by Chief Justice Dipak Misra, in an interim order, also modified its earlier order with regard to linking of Aadhaar with mobile services and said the deadline of February 6 next year for this purpose also stood extended till March 31.The bench, which also comprised Justices AK Sikri, AM Khanwilkar, DY Chandrachud and Ashok Bhushan, said that for opening new bank accounts, an applicant would not be required to provide Aadhaar number to the bank.

(Follow The Tribune on Facebook; and Twitter @thetribunechd)

However, the applicant would have to show the proof to the bank that he/she had applied for the Aadhaar number, Justice Chandrachud, who wrote the unanimous interim order, said.The apex court said the Constitution Bench would commence final hearing from January 17 on the petition challenging the Aadhaar scheme itself.On Thursday, Attorney General KK Venugopal had submitted before the top court that the deadline of mandatory linking of Aadhaar with various services and welfare schemes could also be extended up to March 31 next year.Recently, a nine-judge constitution bench of the apex court had held that Right to Privacy was a Fundamental Right under the Constitution. Several petitioners challenging the validity of Aadhaar had claimed it violated privacy rights.Some petitioners in the top court have termed the linking of the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) number with bank accounts and mobile numbers as “illegal and unconstitutional”. PTI


Military diplomacy must be used effectively: Gen Malik

CHANDIGARH: “When you have better understanding between the militaries of two nations, wars can be avoided,” said former army chief General VP Malik, during the Military Literature Festival, here on Saturday.

HT PHOTO■ (From left) Lt Gen Hardev Singh Lidder (retd), former army chief Gen VP Malik (retd), and Lt Gen TS Shergill (retd) during the Military Literature Festival at Lake Club in Chandigarh.

The advantage with military diplomacy is that it is largely secretive. He recounted his experience of engaging with the leadership in Myanmar in 2000 when its army ruled the country.

“To engage with the vicechairman, I flew to Mandley. Stayed there for two-three days and interacted with the leaders. I then asked the vice-chairman to come to Shillong and spend some time. When he was returning, I handed him a map that marked the militant hideouts that I wanted the Myanmar Army to attack. All this happened in complete secrecy,” he said.

He added that even though military diplomacy can never replace traditional diplomacy, it can be effectively used to supplement the latter.

Lt Gen Hardev Singh Lidder (retd) said for an effective diplomacy we need to identify the countries that we want to engage with and then earmark the specific areas of engagement. “Unfortunately, this practice is rarely followed in India,” he said.


Capt: Internet, dying reading habit challenges before print media

Capt: Internet, dying reading habit challenges before print media
Punjab CM Amarinder Singh addresses the gathering during the two-day national meet, organised by The Tribune Employees Union, at Chandigarh University, Gharuan on Saturday. NITIN MITTAL

Tribune News Service

Mohali, December 9

“I only got love from the media. In the past around 50 years, I never complained that somebody wrote anything against me,” said Capt Amarinder Singh smilingly while addressing the gathering at a two-day national meet, organised by The Tribune Employees Union in association with the Confederation of Newspapers and News Agencies Employees Organisations at Chandigarh University in Gharuan here today.Saying that he always shared warm relations with the Press, the Punjab Chief Minister said the Congress government was against any kind of media censorship. “We want competition to grow. So people get news as they should be getting it, “said the CM, who was the chief guest at the first day of the meet.Nearly 120 delegates representing various newspapers and news agencies across the country are participating in the meet to discuss several key issues, including latest challenges before the newspaper industries and their employees, safety and security of field journalists, constitution of new wage board etc.Going down the memory lane when he was in the Army, Capt Amarinder Singh shared his experiences with the participants how they used to anxiously wait for newspapers while camping in Army bases.The CM added that the main challenges before the newspaper industry included social media, inclination of children towards Internet and TV and declining habits of reading among new generation. “Besides, it is your (journos) responsibility to present the news in the right way,” he said.Capt Amarinder also touched on the poor financial health of the state, claiming that the Punjab has no money for its schools, colleges, roads, hospitals etc. “We are doing our best to put the state back on track,” said the Chief Minister while making it clear that he would not stop the screening of the controversial film ‘Padmavati’ in the state.Earlier, after welcoming the CM, Anil Gupta, president, The Tribune Employees’ Union, apprised him of various issues/challenges related to the mediapersons.Demanding introduction of a national media safety law, the speakers, included Anil Gupta, MS Yadav, general secretary of the confederation and SN Sinha of the IJU, touched on various issues of newspaper employees, freedom of press, recent attacks on journalists, setting up a media commission, curbs on certain electronic channels by the previous government, abolishment of contract system, constitution of new wage board here etc. A souvenir of the Tribune Employees Union was also released on the occasion.Among those present were Mohali MLA Balbir Singh Sidhu, CU Chancellor Satnam Singh Sandhu, the Punjab Chief Minister’s media advisor Raveen Thukral, president of the Indian Journalists Union KB Pandit and president of the All India Newspaper Employees Federation SD Thakur.

120 delegates take part in meet on press issues

  • Nearly 120 delegates representing various newspapers and news agencies across the country are participating in the meet to discuss several key issues, including latest challenges before the newspaper industries and their employees, safety and security of field journalists, constitution of new wage board etc.

‘We are trained for battle, but war is not a good thing’

CHANDIGARH: “War is not a good thing,” says Col Anil Kaul (retd), a Vir Chakra awardee, who lost his right eye and fingers of the left arm while fighting militants in Sri Lanka during Operation Pawan.

ANIL DAYAL/HT■ Vir Chakra recipient Col Anil Kaul and Lt Gen Depinder Singh during a session on Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka during the festival on Friday.

LT GEN DEPINDER SINGH AND COL ANIL KAUL DISCUSS OPERATIONS OF THE INDIAN PEACE KEEPING FORCE
IN SRI LANKA

Operation Pawan is the code name assigned to the operation by the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) to take control of Jaffna from the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. “I salute those who did not come back. Platoons were massacred, leaving aside only one man, Gora Singh. He had almost gone mad because he was alive and 35 of his comrades had died. That is the kind of horror that one has seen,” recalled Col Anil Kaul.

He said, “That (war) is what we are trained and paid for, but it is not a good thing. The military accomplishes its tasks, no questions asked.”

Lt Gen Depinder Singh, who was the overall commander of the IPKF in Sri Lanka from July 1987 to March 1990, spoke about some of the lessons learnt from the ordeal. “The IPKF was formed as a tri-service and high-level representation from the navy and air force. But with time, the presence of navy and air force has started decreasing,” said Lt Gen Singh, hoping that the tri-service unity has improved with time.

He said, “The government had no clear political aim as to why we went in? Was it to protect the LTTE or to protect the territorial integrity of Sri Lanka? I was clueless as to whether I was going as a military governor of Sri Lanka or as an overall force commander of IPKF?” “Each soldier went in with somewhat inadequate individual training. That was the weakness, but who is to blame?” said Let Gen Singh, who reflected on the ordeal that left 1,500 people killed and 3,000 injured, and said, “In retrospect, it was a good thing. As a major power, we must be prepared to project our might against our neighbours, and so, we require a dose of war with a first-class enemy.”

“Operation Pawan was an excellent but costly blooding in terms of the manpower we lost,” he concluded, expressing that the young officers must experience blooding as well.


MILITARY LITERATURE FESTIVAL The controversy cauldron simmers

Revelations of unsavoury truths and unfair dealings involving the armed forces have created ripples in the literary circles over the years. Books highligting corruption, strategic failures, political blunders, besides tell-all autobiographies have always stoked reader interest. Here’s a peep into some of the significant volumes in this realm, and what these said

Himalayan Blunder: The Angry Truth About India’s Most Crushing Military Disaster 

by Brig JP Dalvi.

Thacker.

Among the books based on the subject of the 1962 India-China War Himalayan Blunder: The Angry Truth About India’s Most Crushing Military Disaster is considered to be the most striking and authentic version. It presents an account of the 1962 War, a war that India lost through the narrative of Brig JP Dalvi. He fought the war as the Commander of the 7th Infantry Brigade in NEFA (North-East Frontier Agency). His account of the war is graphic and telling. He was captured by the Chinese forces and was a PoW for seven months. Point of controversy: Based on his firsthand experiences, Dalvi recounts the events that occurred between September 8 and October 20, 1962. and the manner in which India’s own political leadership worked against its cause. In no uncertain terms, he held three men responsible for India’s defeat — Jawaharlal Nehru, Krishna Menon and Gen Brij Mohan Kaul. Dalvi claimed that the apathy and the sheer ineptitude of those at the helm of India’s political affairs sacrificed hundreds of valuable lives. The Indian soldiers — underfed, ill-equipped and unprepared as they were — never stood a chance against the well-prepared and well-endowed Chinese army. Brigadier Dalvi’s detailed narrative of the massacre of the Indian soldiers, a horror that he witnessed firsthand, is heart-rending. 


The War That Never Was: A Study of India’s Strategic Failures  

by Ravi Rikhye.

Chanakya.

 Journalist-turned-author Ravi Rikhye’s analytical book The War that Never Was puts the spotlight on 1987 Operation Trident/Brass Tacks where the Indian and Pakistan troops came within a hair’s breadth of a blood-soaked confrontation.   The book examines India’s ability to achieve an all out victory over Pakistan in the backdrop of Operations Brasstacks and Trident. Pointing out misperceptions of adversary’s behaviour, the author brings out, in different chapters, how same mistakes were committed by India in several crisis situations. Point of controversy: Rikhye points out weaknesses of  the armed forces and the political leadership and the strategic failures that could have had disastrous results.  


The Kargil War

by Praveen Swami.

LeftWord Books.

This book highlights a series of misjudgements and failures on part of the Army’s top brass during the Kargil “war”. Praveen Swami is unsparing in his criticism as he raises vital questions that can’t be brushed under the carpet. Drawing on his experience of several years of covering Jammu and Kashmir as a journalist, Swami unearthed vital data and analysed the long-term reasons that led to the war, its course, and its consequences. In the revised and updated edition of the original, the author goes on to analyse post-Kargil escalation of militancy in Kashmir, the Report of the Kargil Review Committee, and the proposals concerning the ‘autonomy’ of Jammu and Kashmir.
Point of controversy: The author claimed that the Army was unprepared for the intrusions and mentioned  that the Army formations responsible for Kargil at that time were occupied with laying golf courses and setting up a zoo.
He was detained when he tried to meet Brig Surendra Singh.

Betrayal of the Defence Forces: The Inside Truth
by Adm Vishnu
Bhagwat.
Manas Publications.
Injustice leaves scars on the minds and souls of men and damage individuals as well as institutions. Neither Prime Minister AB Vajpayee, nor Defence Minister George Fernandes adequately explained the dismissal of Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat from his post of Chief of Naval Staff (CNS). The book chronicles Admiral Bhagwat’s experiences with the ‘powers that be’, particularly during his last nine months in office. It focuses on his struggle to “defend the Constitution and prevent the fabric of the armed forces from being vitiated by the influence of arms dealers, communal forces and pliant officers of doubtful moral fibre”.
Point of controversy: In addition, various substantive issues, including scams and deals affecting national security, have also been discussed.

Assault on Merit: The Untold Story of
Civil-Military
Relations
by RK Anand.
Har-Anand Publications.
An  insider account of how India’s judiciary has upheld the merit system in military promotions by extricating top generals from webs of nepotism and harassment woven by South Block babus and politicians.
These well-documented case histories go to the very heart of the controversy over the date of birth of Gen VK Singh, Chief of Army Staff and other issues like those involving Maj Gen VK Sharma, Maj Gen RC Kochhar, Lt Gen RS Kadyan, Lt Gen DN Verma that had become a part of ‘military lore’ over the years.
standing apart: The book is a must read for all who wish to understand the causes that have led to the growing trust deficit between India’s apolitical armed forces and the politicised bureaucracy.

Courage and Conviction: An Autobiography
by VK Singh.
Aleph.
Gen VK Singh served in the Indian Army for 42 years, retiring as Chief of Army Staff on May 31, 2012. From his early days as company commander on the Line of Control in Poonch, to commanding elite formations, Victor Force in Jammu and Kashmir and the vast Eastern Command that shares international boundaries with Nepal, Bhutan, China, Myanmar and Bangladesh, to his experience of military operations and exercises such as Bluestar, Brasstacks and Trident, General Singh’s story makes for fascinating reading. Candid, compelling and occasionally controversial, this is the story of a straight-talking soldier who is not afraid of standing by his convictions.
Point of controversy: The autobiography revealed information about bribery and corruption scandals in the armed forces during his tenure as Chief of Army Staff.
It also gives the full story about various lobbies that tried to victimise him over the issue of his falsified date of birth.
Besides, it also presented a worrying picture of how senior officers in the armed forces are constantly harassed by top bureaucrats.
—Compiled by Jaskaran Singh

 


What’s The Wisdom Of Moving The US Embassy From Tel Aviv To Jerusalem? by Syed Ata Hasnain

US President Donald Trump (L) and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands at the Israel Museum in Jerusalem, Israel. (Lior Mizrahi/Getty Images)US President Donald Trump (L) and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands at the Israel Museum in Jerusalem, Israel. (Lior Mizrahi/Getty Images)
Snapshot
  • US President Donald Trump appears committed to the idea of moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

    How wise is the move, and what ramifications could it pose? Lt Gen (retd) Syed Ata Hasnain explains.

A hymn from my school days comes to mind as I try to grapple with understanding Jerusalem’s political status, the issue being thrown up yet again by United States (US) President Donald Trump’s declared intent of moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to the holy city. The hymn reads – “Jerusalem, my happy home, when shall I come to thee. When shall my labors have an end, when shall thy joys I see.”

In August 2006, this lilting hymn reverberated in my mind as I entered Israel, for the first time, from a less-charted route – through the King Hussain Bridge in the Jordan Valley, and reached Jerusalem. Despite a 10-day tour through the beautiful landscape of the holy land, constant flitting between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem for briefing and meeting many a diplomat there, it just did not dawn on me that there was little clarity about what was Israel’s capital city. My ignorance – I continued to believe that it was Tel Aviv. Many years later, the truth dawned about the actual position. Not many perhaps are aware of the issues involved in this long dispute, what the implications of President Trump’s decision could be, and why he is hankering for a change in the location of the US embassy.

Let us commence with the current status before delving into the background and analysis. Jerusalem is the seat of the Government of Israel, but is not recognised as its capital (although Israel calls it the capital). There are 86 embassies from different countries, but all are located in Tel Aviv. Officially, the United Nations (UN) recognises Tel Aviv as the capital of Israel.

A background to the situation is in order. When the British Mandate terminated over the territory of Palestine and the state of Israel was under creation, the principal Allied Powers in 1947 felt that Jerusalem, by virtue of its centricity to the three great monotheistic faiths (Judaism, Christianity and Islam), needed to be retained as an international territory. The UN had to step in when the Arab and Jewish communities of the city objected to this idea. The intergovernmental organisation, under resolution 181, called for the partition of the mandated territory of Palestine into Jewish and Palestinian states. Under the resolution, Jerusalem was to have the status of ‘corpus separatum’, or a ‘separated body’, with a special legal and political status, administered by the UN. Jewish representatives accepted the plan; however, representatives of the Palestinian Arabs and the Arab states rejected it, declaring it illegal.

In May 1948, the Jewish community in Palestine unilaterally decided to declare the creation of the State of Israel. A number of countries recognised it, but not the status of Jerusalem as part of the new state; they preferred to go by the UN resolution of retaining its separate international status. With the first Arab-Israeli war and the subsequent Armistice Agreements of 1949, the UN plan for the international status of Jerusalem did not fructify. This was because the city remained in a de jure state of partition after the war; the east was held by Jordan and the west by Israel. The Old City was with Jordan in the eastern segment. Except the United Kingdom and Pakistan, no other nation recognised either Jordanian or Israeli rule over the respective areas of the city under their control.

The UN set up the Conciliation Commission through Resolution 194 in December 1948 to once again attempt to make Jerusalem a separate territory under international jurisdiction. Subsequently, it was converted into an effort to make it a demilitarised zone with a Jewish and an Arab quarter. Israel unilaterally declared the Jewish quarter as Israeli territory, but the UN’s efforts towards preparing and implementing the Statute of Jerusalem for international control remained incomplete.

In the June 1967 Six Day War, Israel captured the east zone of Jerusalem, as also the West Bank. In 1980, it introduced and passed a law declaring Jerusalem as the capital of the state of Israel. It was declared void by the UN Resolution 478 and during subsequent follow-ups. Thus, officially, the status of Jerusalem is in suspended animation. Israel’s law is not applicable, but the international status has not been implemented. Tel Aviv remains Israel’s internationally accepted capital, but the seat of the country’s government is at Jerusalem. The Green Line, which demarcated the Jewish and Arab quarters after 1948, still continues to exist without any official status. The Palestinians still envisage East Jerusalem as their future capital and not Ramallah, where it currently exists. So, why does Trump want to break with this status and move the US embassy to Jerusalem?

Two weak arguments – first, in 1989, Israel allotted a plot of land to the US to build its embassy on a 99-year lease, but the same is yet to be developed; second, in 1995, the US Congress passed a law for the embassy in Tel Aviv to be moved to Jerusalem. The apparent idea was to respect Israel’s choice of Jerusalem as its capital and recognise it as such, but for no major explicable reason. None of the presidents that followed adhered to this proposal and used the presidential waiver to circumvent the law in the interest of national security. Trump has also signed that waiver once, but it’s a campaign promise and he is a US president quite adamant about living up to it.

Tel Aviv’s mayor states in an interview – “We are Israel’s financial center and cultural center. But there’s one thing we are not: We are not Israel’s capital.” However, that remains out of consonance with views of all major countries. Even in the view of those who list Jerusalem as the capital state in brackets, that it is not internationally recognised and no embassies are located there.

The world generally accepts that a two-state formula is the only way to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict. Israelis like to believe that with this formula, West Jerusalem would be its capital but, officially, it projects this as the entire Jerusalem.

The Jewish lobby of the US also has a hand in pushing for Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and Trump’s promises may have been made to assuage their feelings. Whatever it is, Israel is happy with Trump’s intent but not with the speed of implementation. The Palestinians and their supporters are reasonably certain that any US move to arbitrarily alter the status quo could mean abrogation of all Palestinian-Israeli accords. The Palestine Liberation Organization has suggested it would consider revoking its recognition of Israel, should the move take place.

There is a belief among some in the Trump administration that Washington’s role as an honest broker in the peace process will not be enhanced or reduced in the slightest by moving its embassy to Jerusalem. The move apparently could be to attempt giving life to the peace process and eventually a solution. However, in the present context, it is likely to result in a graver crisis than can be contemplated.

The Middle East has enough problems beyond the basic and original conflict between the Palestinians and Israel. This is one conflict that is reasonably stabilised in comparison with other conflicts, such as the Syrian Civil War, the war in Yemen and the Iran-Saudi standoff, which is manifesting as the rising tide of Shia-Sunni strife. Trump’s action to trigger yet another crisis in the Middle East is poor thinking. It is unlikely that the international community will follow suit because Jerusalem and its future international status is an issue on which there has largely been consensus through the last 70 years. Perhaps it is only loud thinking that President Trump has been indulging in and his security advisers are less likely to press for any departure from what the last three presidents believed in, even after the 1995 passage of law by the US Congress.

Interestingly, in a fictional creation of Tom Clancy, the thriller The Sum of All Fears, a dangerous crisis is defused by convincing both Israelis and Palestinians to “a plan of converting Jerusalem into a Vatican-like independent polity to be administered by a tribunal of Jewish, Muslim, and Christian leaders, and secured by an independent contingent of the Swiss Guards”.

Perhaps in Tom Clancy’s thoughts lies the ultimate solution.


China’s OROB hits roadbumps by VBN Ram, Freelance journalist

China’s OROB hits roadbumps

VBN Ram,Freelance journalist

A slew of setbacks in at least three nations for the OROB (One Road One Belt) initiative have dampened the spirit of Chinese economy policymakers. Pak calls off contractThe biggest setback has come from Pakistan, which has called off its $14 billion contract with China for the construction of the Daimer-Bhasa hydro-electric project. China had laid strict conditions, including ownership of the project. According to Muzammil Hussain, Chairman of the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), the project is not viable and hence not doable, besides being against national interests. He stated so while briefing the Public Accounts Committee on the status of this mega water project. However, China might consider granting some concessions to ensure that its OROB remains unscathed — even though Pakistan has made it manifestly clear to China that it being shortchanged is tantamount to going against its national interest. After all, conditions imposed by China were as bad as the Merchant of Venice had imposed, and like the latter, it wanted its pound of flesh. What were the conditions imposed by Beijing: the securitisation of this project by Pakistan’s pledging of another operational project and taking charge of the entire operational and maintenance cost.Setback in NepalIn a tweet on November 13, 2017, the Deputy Prime-Minister of Nepal, Kamal Thapa, has stated that Nepal’s $2.5 billion contract with China’s Gezhouba Group in respect of the Budhi Gandhaki hydro-electric project has been scrapped. “The project was concluded in an irregular and thoughtless manner and rejected under the direction of Parliamentary Committee,” he said. The above was a bilateral deal — the MoU for which was signed in June 2017 — covered the building of a 1200-megawatt hydro-electric project at a location about 80 km from Kathmandu, as a follow-up to Nepal agreeing to join the OROB. This project is in the process of being awarded to India.

Myanmar alert

Nepal’s withdrawal from the bilateral contract comes a few years after Myanmar decided to cancel the $3.6 billion Myitsone dam, which was formalised by former President Thein Sein. China is continuing its efforts with Myanmar quite persuasively to revive this project.Myanmar has quite obviously seen how Sri Lanka has been shortchanged by China with respect to the Hambantota port project.China’s changed requirementsChina’s wily altruism to secure regional economic hegemony is being supplanted by its economic imperative, or more specifically, its necessity for reducing its debt to GDP ratio. The 19-party Congress has emphasised on market-based allocation of resources and a shift towards greater reward to risk the overall profile of investments.As a matter of coincidence, China is encountering these setbacks at a time when India’s outreach to its neighbours has become highly intense. The aftermath of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Philippines has seen significant achievements — the icing on the cake being the impelling need and commitment for a free and open Indo-Pacific region (a strategic initiative by the Quad, ie the US, Japan, India and Australia) to ensure freedom of navigation and overflight and lawful commerce in international waters and overall maritime security and infrastructure development and rule of law in the Indo-Pacific. The regional reference “Indo-Pacific” instead of Asia Pacific has added significance.Mandarins in India’s foreign office can pat themselves on the back because they have been able to convince many neighbourhood nations that commercial and non-commercial ties with India can rejuvenate their economies besides rendering them more secure. India should grab the opportunities. That India is bestowed with robust technological prowess is internationally acknowledged. 


Bandipur operation is an ominous sign for terrorists in J&K BY LT GEN SYED ATA HASNAIN (RETD)

Indian army in Jammu
Soldiers from the Indian Army (Representational image) | Photo by indianarmy.nic

While it’s incorrect to declare ‘victory’, India seems to be on the right path when it comes to anti-terror operations in Jammu and Kashmir.

Even as Dineshwar Sharma, the government-appointed interlocutor, returned after his first reconnaissance of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and a round of meetings was underway in Delhi, the government gave directions for the continuation of focussed and hard anti-terror operations in Kashmir. Within days of those directions, the Bandipur operation on 18 November resulted in one of the biggest achievements in anti-terrorist operations this year. Six terrorists of the Lashkar-e-Taiba were gunned down by the Army’s 13 Rashtriya Rifles, in conjunction with the J&K Police and the CRPF.

Operations against terrorists have two connotations in J&K. First is the counter-infiltration (CI) mode, in which the Army has established a strong and dominating grid along the LoC belt, in depth up to 20 km. This deployment is in layers. Since the strength of infiltrating terrorists can be very high, the attrition levels too are high, resulting in operations in the past where as many as 10-15 terrorists have been killed in a single encounter. These days this number rarely exceeds six infiltrators because terrorists have reduced the size of infiltrating groups to avoid high attrition.

The second mode is that of hinterland operations, or what may also be termed as counter-terror (CT) operations. In the late 1990s and before, the elimination of six or more terrorists in an encounter was considered normal and the frequency was reasonably high. That was because the Valley was full of terrorists who roamed in bands. When the attrition levels increased, the mathematics of terror started to fall in our favour. This was from 2004 onwards, once the LoC fence was operationalised. The Army could eliminate more terrorists in the hinterland than the rate at which they infiltrated.

The terrorist leadership evaluated the situation and decided to reduce the strength in the operational groups. Instead of the usual six, the terrorists began living in pairs, sometimes trios. This reduced the quantum of terrorists killed in contact operations. It was a strategy of the LeT in particular, which then needed many more over-ground workers (OGWs) for guidance to the foreign terrorists (all LeT terrorists are generally Pakistanis) for frequent movement to avoid the security dragnet.

Of course the most important issue here was the need for and existence of a large network of ‘safe houses’ in which foreign terrorists resided. In fact, I once celebrated when one of my units killed five high-level terrorist leaders who had got together for a conference in the Lolab Valley on 13 July 2011.

Ominous signs for terrorists

While a single operation is never sufficient to give us a trend, I can see a few ominous signs for the terrorist cadres. One is the drying of funding. Even OGWs need funding. The call for azadi and radical ideology can only keep passion and commitment going up to a point. Beyond that, it is a question of money.

The NIA’s recent actions and maintenance of continuity with these is having its effect. The lower strength of OGWs means a smaller number of safe houses too. So, terrorists from Pakistan have to stay for shorter periods in fewer homes, and thus have to be in larger groups. This offers greater potential for success to the ever-hungry Rashtriya Rifles troops.

Post-operation analysis will soon tell us whether this eliminated group was a resident terrorist group or a recently infiltrated one. Either way, there can be no denying that the phenomenon of infiltration is impossible to stop; the most the Army can do is contain it as much as possible. Secondly, more youth have been recruited to terrorist ranks in South Kashmir than the number killed or neutralised this campaigning season. So, we are almost back to square one in the numbers game.

The direction of the central government to the forces to not dilute the focus and intensity of operations is wise. Winter can sometimes be a period for a tactical pause when the Army, in particular, gets on to other things like reviewing conventional warfare plans and conducting war games.

My experience in Kashmir tells me that winter is a ‘high kill’ period, but this fact is not registered in the psyche of the forces due to lack of continuity management. With changed circumstances, now is the time to ginger up intelligence. But intelligence does not come cheap. There is a need to spend more money. If this advice is heeded I am quite certain we have a partridge hunt in the offing this winter.

Too many times in the past we have declared premature victory in the fight against Pakistan-sponsored terrorists and separatists. My sincere advice — victory is not on the horizon yet; it’s too complex a term. We just have to ensure that the CI/CT grids remain intact, and there is no attempt at premature dilution.