New Delhi: Barring some forward locations in Galwan Valley, Hot Springs and Pangong Tso, the Chinese presence in Ladakh has only grown since May this year with the deployment of additional equipment and defensive structures such as trenches and berms at existing encampments, satellite imagery experts have revealed.

This is despite multiple diplomatic and military talks between the two countries, including four corps commander level talks, and discussion between National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Defence sources have told ThePrint that there has not been any movement from the Chinese positions since the last corps commander level talks between 14 corps commander Lt Gen. Harinder Singh and his Chinese counterpart Major General Lin Liu on 14 July.

After the last talks, the Army had said that both sides have agreed to discuss “complete disengagement” in Ladakh, but had added that the disengagement process at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) would be intricate and require complete verification.

Talking to ThePrint, Sim Tack, a Belgium-based military analyst with Force Analysis and Statfor said that a continuous growth of the Chinese presence in Ladakh has been observed over the past months.

“This means that we have seen the deployment of additional equipment and new encampments, as well as additional defensive structures such as trenches and berms at existing encampments,” he told ThePrint.

He added that China is also still working rapidly to upgrade the roads connecting these positions, which will facilitate future deployments.

“The only locations where we have seen a reversal in this trend have been the forward positions at Galwan Valley, Hot Springs and Pangong Tso, where mutual withdrawals have led China to remove its encampments within several kilometers of the Line of Actual Control,” he added.

Some military experts, however, said such Chinese build-up might be “posturing” and a display of their equipment, while some suspect it could be “deception”.

Also read: Chinese deception at LAC is just like Pakistan in Kargil — former Ladakh corps commander

‘Satellite images could well be used for display’

Some military experts felt that such images might as much be for display by the Chinese to be captured by commercial grade satellites for psychological operations.

Former 14 Corps Commander Lt Gen. P.J.S. Pannu told ThePrint in an interview that when considering satellite images for analysis, multiple factors have to be taken into account.

“For example, even at one metre resolution for a satellite, you cannot recognise if there is a soldier standing there or some other object or a stone,” he said.

“Also the fact that these satellites are crossing over and they are taking pictures when they are going over the area and may not even have the same angle when passing over the area,” he added.

Pannu said that for a professional military like the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the way these pictures were displayed on TV, it seemed they were more to show (their display of equipment) than to hide.

“In normal warfare, one is conscious in the military that satellites should not be able to detect where they are. So if the PLA is trying to put in the open lot of tanks, tents and trucks, it was more of a posturing … We don’t know how many are real and how many are dummy,” he said.

The Chinese, he said, are masters in creating tunnels, and hiding their intentions and military forces.

“Why would they want to show it? So, I would like to look at those things, which are not picked up by the satellites, instead of those, which have been so easily available in the commercial grade satellites,” he added.

Lt Gen. Vinod Bhatia (retired), former director-general of Military Operations, said satellite imagery could surely give inputs, but they needed to be confirmed by other intelligence sources.

“As far as China is concerned, it could be a judicious mix of actual build-up and posturing,” he told ThePrint.

He explained that day-time military movements were not common, and camouflaged concealment were not so easily picked up by satellites.

“But in this case, it possibly wants to show things to be picked up by commercial satellites,” he added.

Also read: The Indian Right cares about national security, except when China tip-toes near our territory

‘Tents, vehicles, infrastructural equipment look to be in use’

However, other experts believe that such large-scale deception may be difficult to pull off.

An anonymous satellite imagery analyst, who uses Twitter under the handle @detresfa, said deception is regularly observed in static environments such as airbases, research and development facilities, among others.

“However, in most of the data we have seen of Chinese positions in Aksai Chin, the various tents, vehicles and infrastructural equipment all look to be occupied and in use,” he added.

Military grade satellites, he said, can be answered on the basis of the country.

“For example, with the United States, President Trump’s tweet of the Imam Khomeini Space Center in Iran back in 2019 showed the sophistication of US spy satellites in orbit that not many people knew about,” he said.

Tack said that the commercial satellite imagery is very accurate, and they have relied on various different sources of imagery (such as Planet, Maxar, and Airbus) that provide up to 30 cm resolution to study these particular deployments.

“The potential for deceptions is definitely real, and this is something that we try to uncover in our analysis of satellite imagery by applying our analytical expertise relating to doctrines and procedures of the Chinese military, as well as ‘pattern of life’ analysis, where we see constant activity and movement of vehicles and equipment at these positions,” he said.

Tack added that a lot of the Chinese camouflage nets have a red hue indeed, which could be meant to stand out in satellite images.

He said that while there are limitations to satellite imagery analysis, deception can never be truly ruled out. “But in the current situation in Ladakh, we believe that the levels of activity observed, indicate this is not a large-scale deception effort.”

‘Inadequacies’ in assessing satellite images 

Sources in the defence establishment said that commercial data as is available today has varying levels of resolution and accuracy, some of which are much better in terms of spatial resolution, radiometry and location accuracy.

“However, there are inadequacies of assessment of these satellite imageries due to lack of understanding military image interpretation as well as actual alignment of LAC,” a source in the defence establishment said.

The source, who deals with satellite imagery, added that satellite image interpretation is a specialised activity with niche skills gathered over years of experience.

Also read: India, China disengagement at LAC could take until winter, de-escalation will happen first

New Delhi: Speculation about a former Army adjutant general’s probable appointment to the armed forces tribunal (AFT) has led a lawyer to write a letter to the Modi government and the AFT opposing it.

The lawyer has cited controversial comments made by Lt Gen. Ashwani Kumar (Retd) about disabled soldiers and call for a code of conduct for veterans to claim his appointment to the AFT would be in “total conflict of interest”.

The remarks in question were made by Lt Gen. Kumar in an interview to News X in 2019 amid a raging debate about a government proposal to tax disability pensions unless injuries suffered in the line of duty force one out of service. The proposal, brought amid allegations of the provision being misused, was subsequently rolled back.

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The lawyer’s letter has been marked to the appointments committee of the Cabinet, the AFT chairman, and the Department of Personnel and Training, among others. The fact that it was sent by a lawyer was confirmed by sources, but his/her identity remains unknown.

The date of the letter is not known but it was shared on Twitter Friday by an advocacy handle working in the interest of the armed forces medical services.

Approached for comment, Lt Gen. Kumar replied on text that he is “not aware of any such appointment”.

Also Read: Wide variation in disability pensions of jawans, officers creating ‘heartburn’: CDS Rawat

‘Impartial judgment would be compromised’

An adjutant general is the head of a critical wing of the Army that takes care of administrative and legal affairs. In the aforementioned interview, Lt Gen. Kumar, who retired last year, sought to delink what he termed lifestyle diseases from conditions or ailments that make personnel eligible for a disability pension.

He also said low hearing could not be seen as a disability because there were aids available to help patients hear normally.

In the same interview, Kumar expressed support for a controversial proposal to bind retired military personnel by a code of conduct.

In the letter, the lawyer has said that Lt Gen. has a defamation case pending against him in connection with his comments.

“It would be in total conflict of interest to appoint such a person, who has made such comments live on TV against disabled soldiers, and then expect him to give justice to them in the armed forces tribunal,” the lawyer has stated.

“The entire concept of impartial judgement and fair play would naturally be compromised by appointment of a person who has openly declared a position on television in such a manner that has made his unfortunate bias apparent,” the lawyer added.

The lawyer also said Kumar had made “disparaging” comments regarding service-related matters pending before the Supreme Court.

The letter starts by claiming that “Kumar has applied” for appointment to the AFT, but adds “in case he has not applied for the job, and his file is not pending with the Govt, the communication can be ignored”.

‘He was quoted differently’

Within the military, the letter has found both supporters and critics.

A military lawyer, who claimed there was some talk of Kumar’s appointment to AFT, said his statements reflected his “bias”, and it would thus be a conflict of interest if he were to deal with cases of disabled soldiers.

“He would be dealing with the same cases of disabled soldiers against whom he made the statements,” the lawyer said.

However, another Army officer said there was nothing undesirable in Kumar’s statements against any disabled soldier.

“At least thrice in that interview, it has been said that the disability pension is a fair and due compensation to any soldier who has acquired disability in the line of duty. Despite that, it has been quoted differently in various corners,” the officer said.

“In fact, there was a suggestion in the service headquarters on depriving those drawing disability pension from ECHS (Ex-Servicemen Contributory Health Scheme) facility, but he was the one who opposed it and convinced the services against it,” the officer said, adding that Kumar gave the interview in uniform as adjutant general, which made it clear that it was not his personal opinion but the organisation’s point of view.

Also Read: SC rejects disability pension plea of soldier, says injury not linked to military service

Sources in the defence and security establishment said the additional build-up of troops and equipment in rear locations, especially with “substantial quantum” of troops in the Aksai Chin area, is what is making the Indian Army cautious about the disengagement process.

According to an assessment, Chinese troops appear to be getting ready for long and harsh winters.

The sources said this is the reason why some defence planners think China is dragging its feet over the talks. As reported by ThePrint earlier, there is a fear that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is intentionally delaying the disengagement process to sustain it till winters and then open a new front, possibly in the Northast.

Also read: Some deception, some posturing — the message from the Chinese military build-up in Ladakh

Helipads have come up, fresh construction going on

A Twitter handle @detresfa had, on 21 July, posted satellite images from Shiquanhe in Tibet showing PLA build-up, “suspected to be part of the supporting role of the ongoing” tensions at the LAC in Ladakh.

Sources confirmed that there was indeed a Chinese build-up, which is believed to be at least a brigade’s strength (about 5,000 troops and equipment). They added that helipads have also come up in the area, and fresh construction is going on.

The sources said while a certain level of disengagement has been done at face-off sites, the PLA is strengthening its positions in rear locations.

This, they say, is an indication that China is preparing for a possible winter stay, and that the PLA could return to areas it has retreated from.

The sources said while PLA quickly moved out of the Galwan Valley, it is felt that this was largely due to the increased flow in the Galwan river that made the terrain tough to maintain troops, as reported by ThePrint earlier.

Such was the Chinese preparation that their troops came into the Galwan Valley with even boots meant for water.

Asked about future possibilities, a source said a lot of planning is being done keeping in mind the best-case, worst-case and not-so-bad scenarios.

The Indian Army is also preparing for the winters in full swing. It has been on a massive drive to ensure adequate supply of the right gear and adequate ration for the over 30,000 additional troops deployed at multiple places along the LAC.

Also read: The story of what really happened when Chinese troops ‘withdrew’ from Galwan Post 58 years back

The 5 Rafale aircraft will spend the night at a French air base in UAE before arriving at Ambala air base Wednesday where a closed induction ceremony will be held.

New Delhi: Five Rafale fighter jets of the IAF have taken off from Merignac in France and will travel about 7,000 km, with a stopover in the UAE, before arriving at the Ambala air station Wednesday.

The IAF has been quiet on the exact configuration of the aircraft coming to India but sources indicated that two of the five fighters are twin-seaters used for training.

“These 5 Rafale jets are extremely swift, versatile and very deadly aircraft. They are both beauty and the beast. I would like to thank Dassault for delivering the aircraft on time and French Government and French Air Force for all the support,” Indian Ambassador to France Jawed Ashraf said.

A total of 12 pilots have undergone extensive training on the Rafale fighters and their weapon systems, while another batch is currently getting trained.

Explaining the complexity of the training, the sources said the Rafale’s throttle and stick have 36 switches on them.

“Each switch has four distinct movements that are meant for specific operations. Imagine, the level of training that one goes through,” a source in the know told ThePrint.

The sources said this system is known as HOTAS or hands on throttle and stick. This means the pilot can use the throttle and stick to control the entire spectrum of the operations.

9 jets handed over so far

French defence major Dassault Aviation, which is manufacturing the Rafale jets, has since October last year handed over a total of nine aircraft to the IAF. The 10th is undergoing acceptance trials by IAF pilots in France.

As reported by ThePrint earlier, sources have said the aircraft can be operationally deployed, if needed, “within a week”.

The Indian Embassy in France has put out a series of tweets showing the fighters taking off.

Envoy Ashraf said the long awaited and much needed two squadrons of Rafale would add to the IAF’s strength and the country’s defence capability.

The journey 

The Rafale fighters have taken off from Merignac, where the production facility of Dassault Aviation is located.

They are headed to the French airbase in Al Dhafra near Abu Dhabi in the UAE for a night halt.

This would be a 10-hour journey and these fighters would be accompanied by two mid-air refuellers of the French Air Force.

There will be two rounds of mid-air refuelling to complete the journey.

While the distance to the UAE can be covered by the Rafale in much shorter time, they will have to keep pace with the tankers.

After the night halt in the UAE, the jets will take off for Ambala in Haryana, where the IAF’s 17 Squadron ‘Golden Arrows’ — home of the first Squadron of Rafale fighters — is based. A closed induction ceremony is scheduled to be held at the Ambala air base.

The Jamnagar air base has been kept ready as a backup in case of any kind of emergency, sources said.

Also read: For quick deployment of Rafale, IAF opts for HAMMER weapon system, not Israeli Spice 2000

All Pakistani embassies have been asked to hold programmes and protest rallies against India on the Kashmir issue.

“A lot of planning has gone into the so-called ‘Black Day’. It shows the extent of propaganda planning that goes on in Pakistan,” a source in the defence and security establishment said.

Various departments, including intelligence agency ISI, have been made responsible for specific programmes.

“Everything has to do with creating an impact. The Pakistani establishment has planned various social media trends surrounding ‘Black Day’ and Kashmir,” another source said.

RK Saboo

Recently, it was reported that the Army might allow young citizens who want to experience Army life — for a short period, not as a career — to join the force for three years as part of a model ‘Tour of Duty’. The Army would benefit by getting young manpower and the young recruits would have the chance to imbibe the Army’s ethos of discipline and dedication. This was refreshing news in these gloomy times, and kindled my interest and memories.

I visited South Korea in 1988. I was in a metered taxi in Seoul. In the middle of the journey, the driver stopped and demanded double the fare, otherwise he wouldn’t move. I had to pay. Another day, walking, I lost the way to my hotel. I asked a policeman for help; no help until I greased his palm. Such was the rampant corruption in Korea, but when I went there again in 2015, I was amazed how things had changed. I was in a taxi and by mistake, the driver took a wrong route. Realising this, he stopped the meter, found the right route to my hotel and refused to accept any fare. The police and young people in particular were extremely polite and helpful. I asked my Korean friends what caused the change. I learnt that much of it was due to the new policy requiring all young men to join the military for two-three years (for women it was optional). This instilled discipline, loyalty and responsibility. No wonder Korea developed fast.

Another example is of Switzerland. The country has not fought war since long, but they have a superbly organised army. Army service is obligatory for young men for about two years, with short refresher courses later (for which their employers continue to pay salary). Interestingly, most Swiss find it useful for their self-development. A Swiss business associate told me that many of the friends he made during army service were top corporate leaders and professionals today.

A survey has indicated that out of the participating countries, 56 require mandatory military service in some form, while 109 have no conscription rules. In India, opinions drawn from corporate leaders show that they would prefer employing individuals who have had some military experience. By opting for the ‘Tour of Duty’, young people will become more employable, besides experiencing the adventure of the Army and the unique pride of the uniform.

The internship can also be extended to all who have passed class XII. It should be a paid internship. Besides training in physical fitness, survival techniques, self-defence and introduction to firearms, some manual vocational skills should be taught. It can be dove-tailed into the Skill India campaign.

The interns will imbibe attention to detail and the importance of achieving goals. The Army also symbolises ‘unity in diversity’. I heard a TEDx talk by Capt Raghu Raman in which he spoke of how in the Army he learned to drink and wash and shave with colleagues from a common mug, no matter what their religion or caste. These are priceless life lessons.

The Diamer-Bhasha dam project is in Gilgit-Baltistan, which is ethnically closer to Kargil district of Ladakh. Its political context is constricting as China and Pakistan are connected through the Karakoram highway that traverses through the region. Its control lies with the federal government.

Luv Puri

Journalist and author

Pakistan has decided to go ahead with the 450 MW Diamer-Bhasha dam in the Gilgit-Baltistan area on the Indus river. Diamer-Bhasha dam is being jointly constructed by a Chinese state-run firm and a commercial entity of Pakistan’s military. A slew of infrastructural projects being pursued by China and Pakistan in the region, including the dam, are taking place in the context of reinforcement of the federal government’s impulse to continue the old structures of control and micro-management.he 1960 Indus Waters Treaty stipulated that the waters of the three eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — would be made available for unrestricted use by India. The waters of the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — were allowed to flow for unrestricted use by Pakistan, except for limited use by India such as generation of hydroelectric power from run-of-the-river plants. India and Pakistan have built dams on either side of the Line of Control. On the Chenab, India has built Salal, Baglihar and Dul Hasti, whereas Kishanganga is built on the Jhelum.

While inaugurating the Diamer-Bhasha dam, PM Imran Khan implicitly invoked the Mangla dam on the Jhelum and the Tarbela dam on the Indus as the other two big dams constructed by Pakistan. Along with the Tarbela dam in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Mangla dam in PAJK was financed through the World Bank (WB) established Indus Basin Development Fund. The fund was set up mainly to allow Pakistan to compensate for its water losses because of the World Bank treaty and build replacement irrigation capacities and harness electricity. An American consortium of eight firms constructed the dam in 1967 with reportedly more than 50 per cent funding coming from US sources. As per an estimate, the construction involved nearly 4,500 expatriates and 9,000 Pakistani workers.

The construction of that dam fulfilled its mandate though leaving behind a litany of local grievances that have become part of the community’s institutionalised memory. The dam halted all agricultural activity along the river Jhelum and led to displacement on a wide scale of more than 81,000 people. On a field trip to Mirpur in 2006, the locals lamented to this writer the loss of historical sites, including a temple, as the old town was submerged due to the dam reservoir. The dam led to a second wave of migration from Mirpur area to the UK.

In the first wave around the first quarter of the 20th century, many Mirpuris had earlier settled down in the UK after working as coal stokers for the British steamships. During the second wave, the British government had originally granted 400 work permits, though family ties enabled the migrants to grow manifold in the years to come. Consequently, Mirpuris and their descendants are one of the largest South Asian communities in the UK. A smaller segment also lives in the Midwood area of Brooklyn borough of New York city. With agricultural fields lost for perpetuity, fluctuating foreign remittances have become a financial lifeline for the locals.

The displacement fuelled an already festering political movement as the locals questioned the official claim that PAJK, called ‘Azad Kashmir’ in Pakistan, is an independent entity. In actual practice, the powers are less than those granted to the Pakistani provinces. Several of its local leaders, most prominently, late Abdul Khaliq Ansari, spent several years in Pakistan’s jails for questioning official duplicity. In the 1990s and the first decade of the 21st century, a section of the Mirpuri community leaders protested whenever representatives of the Pakistani government came to Britain. An Anti-Mangla Dam Committee was formed in the UK. Apart from apparent mismanaged relief and rehabilitation, Mirpuris allege that they have to suffer far more electricity cuts in contrast to neighbouring Punjab province.

Coming to Gilgit-Baltistan, ethnically closer to Kargil district of Ladakh, the displacement due to the proposed dam will be far less as compared to Mangla dam on account of sparse population. Nevertheless, the political context in which the construction will take place is even more constricting. China and Pakistan are connected through the Islamabad-Kashgar-Karakoram highway that traverses through the region. The 1949 Karachi agreement signed between the Muslim Conference-led PAJK and Pakistan government separated the region from PAJK and gave direct control of the region to the federal government.

In March 1999, the Supreme Court of Pakistan had ordered that the Northern Areas be given the same political, economic and administrative rights as given to the other provinces of Pakistan. Northern Areas Council, an executive body of the region, became the legislative council, though the elected deputy chief remained subservient to the chief secretary, appointed by the federal government. The chief executive of the council was the Islamabad-based Federal Minister for Kashmir affairs and Northern Areas.

A confusion has marked Pakistan’s international position on the region. In 2006, Pakistan’s ambassador to Belgium, Mohammad Sayeed Khalid, stated that the Northern Areas was a part of Pakistan and therefore the United Nations resolutions, giving the people of Jammu and Kashmir the right to decide between India and Pakistan, didn’t apply to the region. The diplomat’s response came in response to the Emma Nicholson report on J&K, which was presented to the European Parliament. The report had raised the issue of lack of constitutional rights for the people of Northern Areas. On August 29, 2009, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani announced political reforms in Northern Areas and renamed the region as Gilgit-Baltistan. A legislative assembly was created with the post of chief minister to spread the notion that the region is governed by locals.

In 2018, a committee headed by Sartaj Aziz had recommended the abolition of Islamabad-based Gilgit-Baltistan council. The launch of the dam came in the backdrop of a reversal of decision to loosen control as the new government decided to retain the council which is headed by the Pakistan PM. In June this year, after the completion of a five-year term of the assembly, PM Imran Khan appointed a caretaker CM, a retired police officer. The elections have been postponed as the voter lists are apparently incomplete.

Lt Gen Harwant Singh (Retd)

The word ‘jugaad’ typically conveys a somewhat ad hoc and ingenious effort to make defective machinery or any other undertaking moving again, or muddle along. While this mode and method of setting right anything defective may be in use, to some extent, elsewhere in the world, it is universally adopted in India.

Many Indians lean heavily on ‘jugaad’, and though it is largely viewed as an ability to innovate and improvise, there are those who feel ‘such shoddiness’, as they put it, harms quality control in the long run.

During Exercise Brass Tacks, I as the defending commander had a frontage of 120 km to cover and the opposing force had 15 armoured regiments (675 tanks). To block such a large force, besides much else, I required the front to be covered with anti-tank mines. To lay mines manually on a frontage as large as that was impossible. One required mechanical minelayers and the Army had none.

Prior to the exercise, we were training in Rajasthan, where I saw unusually large farm machinery lying for repair at a workshop. I asked the mechanic if he could fabricate mine-laying equipment for us. I explained to him that anti-tank mines would be carried in a large vehicle from where the mine would be manually lowered into a “shoot” and these should land in the deep furrow. The same would be covered with earth dug out of the furrow.

The fabricated equipment would be fitted below a jeep trailer, which would be towed by this big vehicle. He seemed to fully understand the requirement. A dummy mine and a jeep trailer were left with him.

In four days flat, his fabrication was ready. He had also made a provision to adjust the equipment for sandy, hard and semi-hard ground. The trailer with the contraption under it was attached to a Tatra vehicle. The equipment laid the mines perfectly well.

Army Chief General Sundarji was requested to see the equipment. He came with Arun Singh, then Deputy Defence Minister. Both, in turn, sat in the jeep trailer to see as to how the equipment worked. It was indeed a funny sight to see them lean over to look at the mine-laying process. Developing a mechanical minelayer by a wayside mechanic was indeed a remarkable achievement and part of the great Indian ‘jugaad’.

This does establish the simple fact that there is no dearth of innovation and talent in India. What is required is to impart the right technical education, encouragement and creation of appropriate facilities for ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’.

Local resources in Ladakh are restricted due to the limitations of weather and terrain. Requirements for consumption rise due to the deployment of military and paramilitary forces. Therefore, all stores for survival and operations are met by stocks from the plains. Forecasting and demand consolidation is an ongoing process which starts well in advance at all levels.

Lt Gen Balbir Singh Sandhu (Retd)

Former Director General of Army Supplies & Transport

A lot has been written about the Galwan valley and the Pangong lake and the intricacies of operations in such difficult areas in Ladakh. There is no doubt that sheer survival in high-altitude areas is a big challenge, to conduct operations in such a terrain is like pushing even fit and acclimatised soldiers to the ultimate limits of the human body’s tolerance. For a citizen to understand how it feels, one must go for a holiday to a well-connected place like Leh, which is not even located in a difficult area. It has been experienced that many tourists spend their holiday in hospitals or their rooms, even in Leh, because they cannot withstand the rarefied atmosphere to go for local sightseeing, such are the challenges imposed by nature in this terrain. Imagine the tenacity and stamina, both physical and mental, of those officers and soldiers who recaptured the Kargil heights in 1999. We can only express our gratitude to them by saluting them every time we think of the Kargil War and the Galwan valley incident and other such operations undertaken by the Indian Army.

One issue which has escaped attention during this period, especially in the media, is the complexity of maintaining the supply chain to provide operational logistics support to the troops fighting in such difficult areas. It is a fact that Ladakh is connected to the rest of the country only by road and air, the road being closed for better part of the year. In fact, the road is open for about four months only during which period, logistics for the entire year are required to be built up for all items of survival and war fighting. The condition of the road deteriorates immensely, having stayed under snow for most part of the year.

Hence, driving heavy vehicles is not only dangerous and risky, but needs high level of skills. Within Ladakh, each sub-sector has different terrain imperatives and some posts are accessible only on foot or by animal transport for a very limited period during which logistics echelons carry out the advance winter stocking (AWS) to last for the whole year besides some reserves for unforeseen operational requirements or natural calamities.

It is also a fact that local resources available in Ladakh are extremely restricted due to the limitations of weather and terrain. Requirements for consumption become even more due to the deployment of military and paramilitary forces to meet the national security requirements. Therefore, all stores for survival and conducting operations are met by stocks coming from the plains. Since the period for the induction of these stocks into the sector is limited after the snow melts, there is a requirement to forecast the demand for all stores in great detail and procure them well in time in the plains so that they can be inducted in a systematic manner once the road opens. Forecasting and demand consolidation is an ongoing process which starts well in advance at all levels. Procurement has to keep in mind that perishables are not procured too early, lest their shelf life should expire before the road opens the next year. This factor also decides the sequence of pushing forward the items during the road open period. The quantum of stocks required at each location depends on the duration it is likely to be cut off and is worked out in terms of number of days converted into gross quantities for each item, howsoever insignificant it may appear. There is a well-oiled machine which involves the forward most post to the Army headquarters in which the demand moves backwards to Delhi and the stocks go forward to the posts through the intermediary channel of logistics in a very smooth manner.

During the ‘Road open period’ as it is popularly known, the collective effort up the chain comes into effect. This is the period during which items ranging from ration, engineering stores, weapons and equipment, clothing, medical stores, ammunition and vehicles, to name a few, need to be inducted into the sector. The range of items required is vast. Fuel requirements, including kerosene for heating purposes, are colossal. It moves up in bulk lorries which must refill it into barrels and jerricans for the forward areas. Effort has been made to reduce the carbon footprint by utilising non-conventional sources of energy, but the quantum required is still substantial. It is interesting to note that the modes of transport are as varied as goods trains from the hinterland to the railhead to load carrying vehicles in the hilly areas followed by mules/local ponies and at times, civilian porters for the last kilometre connectivity. The entire supply chain works in unison right from the hinterland to the forward areas on ‘Seek and support’ or ‘Push model’ of replenishment, setting extremely high standards of professionalism and supply chain management. Failure or under-performance of the supply chain in such sensitive areas is not acceptable under any circumstances. Hence, the model followed is ‘Just in case’ which translates to high assurance levels and reserves unlike the corporates who adopt ‘Just in time’ model of logistics, risking assurance for the economy.

Formation commanders in such areas personally monitor the progress of AWS and the stock build-up, because not only are operational logistics important for survival and war fighting by the troops, they act as great morale booster. The soldiers need to be given a feeling of being cared for by their leaders and that is what differentiates a professional force like the Indian Army from the rest. Operational logistics in difficult areas like high altitude or deserts will often dictate the size of the forces that can be deployed in operations because deployment of forces may be easier than sustaining them through the anticipated period of operations.

t’s now clear that this stand-off with China will continue till winter. For that, we need to equip a force level five times that in Siachen. It would also require a shift in focus from being Pak-centric to at least be equally balanced when facing threats from two fronts. China has built up Pak capabilities for such a time, to present us a two-front threat.

Maroof Raza

Strategic Affairs Analyst

There are some uncanny similarities between the Pakistani intrusions in the summer of 1999, on the northern half of the Line of Control (LoC) — commonly referred to as the Kargil sector — and the Chinese intrusions at multiple points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) east of Ladakh this summer. But there’s also a big difference. The LoC was a marked and accepted boundary with Pakistan, and hence Pakistan’s intrusions were illegal. This gave India considerable international support. But regarding the LAC between India and China, New Delhi’s arguments are not

watertight, even though the world is still very much in India’s favour.

And while Pakistan’s intrusions in 1999 took place as troops withdrew in the winter months from the higher reaches of the LoC — as agreed — the Chinese took up their positions now when the Indian Army dropped its annual Op-Alert to check their deployments along the LAC, due to the overzealousness to follow the government’s guidelines on anti-Covid-19 measures. The Chinese, however, used this Indian lapse to build up considerable force levels opposite Indian positions on the LAC, and worse still, they intruded in areas that were traditionally not held, as every hilltop and valley isn’t held physically. The Chinese army is still holding on to most of their gains, regardless of the optimism among the apologists for the government.

But a similarity between the experiences of the Kargil conflict and the current Chinese intrusions is that our tools of gathering external intelligence haven’t delivered. Whether it is the ‘shepherds’ or satellites that the government’s well-funded intelligence bodies were banking on, they’ve either failed us, or those in charge of gathering these inputs have glossed over the inputs. Either way, our brave jawans have again paid with their lives.

And as was the case in the initial stages of the Kargil conflict, the swift use of PR by the intel agencies once again led to their friends in the media to blame the CDS and his lot, for the ‘intelligence lapse’ against the Chinese. A similar line was adopted by the shadowy men in our establishment when the Kargil surprise had raised the call for scapegoats, when the media went on to say ‘that the blame lay with the then Army chief for gross negligence of Pakistani build-up and intrusions.’ But the new appointment of CDS is not responsible for gathering external intelligence, even now. This has to come to the armed services from the multiple organisations there to gather and pass on their inputs. Otherwise, why have them? Two decades after the Kargil conflict, our commentators cannot still surely be arguing who must be responsible for gathering information from across our borders?

However, then (in 1999) and now, a bigger failure has been our inability to read or assess the intentions of our adversaries. In the current situation, it is now clear that neither those who are Mandarin speakers nor those who know the Chinese and their ways had fathomed what was on Beijing’s mind. More so, when the plainspeaking politician, George Fernandes, pointed a finger at the Chinese, as India’s Defence Minister in the mid-1990s, to say they presented a bigger threat to India, and not Pakistan. Some of us agreed with him then, and continued to say so, but the policy makers on Raisina Hill in Delhi had other illusions. But just as the Kargil shock had led to additional military deployments north of Kashmir and west of Ladakh — with the raising of a new corps in Leh and an additional army division added to it — the Chinese intrusions have led to the move of at least two extra divisions plus armour and mechanised forces along the LAC. Apparently, they will be there to stay, for the long haul.

While during the Kargil conflict, troops were rushed in to throw out the Pakistani intruders — with little time even for troops to acclimatise — then and now, there is also a similar situation of insufficient weapons and equipment for our frontline soldiers, though it wasn’t because of that the men of 16 Bihar had to resort to hand-to-hand fighting in the Galwan valley. In the Kargil conflict, our men fought against many odds to regain those icy heights, and fight they surely did. But the Chinese aren’t going to be a pushover, more so, unlike Pakistan in 1999 that was a divided house — between a much surprised Nawaz Sharif and an aggressive General Musharraf — Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Communist Party of China (CPC) have an aggressive agenda on multiple fronts in Asia.

But our armed forces do have many new weapon platforms now, to the credit of the NDA and UPA governments, from expensive fighter aircraft to long-range maritime drones and attack helicopters. While these fit more into the plans to show your muscle to the adversary with ‘military force multipliers’, a lesson from the Kargil conflict was the need to equip our infantrymen well to fight in those icy heights — and Aksai Chin too has tough high-altitude terrain — with air and artillery support on that hazardous front. It’s now clear that this stand-off with China will go into the winter months. For that, we need to equip a force level five times that we have in Siachen. It would also require us to shift the focus of our forces from being Pakistan-centric to at least be equally balanced when facing the threats from two fronts. China has built up Pakistan’s capabilities for precisely such a time, to present us the two-front threat.

More importantly, India must now quickly create two ‘strike corps’ by using the existing manpower better — since new resources may be hard to come by — with one each to be launched anywhere northwest of Nepal and east of Bhutan, to divide the attention of China’s western theatre command that’s responsible for their entire land borders with India. By using the multiple military commands facing China, India could spring many surprises, if the political order so desires. However, budgetary re-allocations will have to be made now (not next year) — to give these strike corps alpine equipment for a war in the high Himalayas — if the assertions of our ministers are anything to go by.

As we have seen until now, the initiatives adopted — diplomatic, economic and military — haven’t been effective enough. Are we running out of options because we have failed to learn lessons from the past? Is there a sense of a 1962 déjà vu? Perhaps to prevent that, our leaders may do well not to raise the rhetoric, because when the people’s expectations go up, then a nation can be driven into a conflict, the cost of which is always high.