Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones in the Indian Ocean region
by MK Bhadrakumar
The guided-missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones sailing past Lakshadweep Islands on April 7 has thrown India’s Sinophobes into confusion. One leading daily noted it as a “rare falling out between the two partners in the Quad grouping.” An anti-China analyst tweeted that it’s just a “botched PR exercise” on the part of Americans.
The Ministry of External Affairs took a legalistic perspective as if it was answering a writ petition in the Delhi High Court. But, reflect seriously. Yes, this is a rare fracas within the cosy Quad family. Yet, Quad is a toddler. What all can happen when President Joe Biden grooms it into a boisterous adolescent?
Make no mistake, what happened is the military equivalent of what the great American diplomat-scholar George Kennan once wrote about the oil reserves in Persian Gulf — they are “our resources”, he wrote, integral to America’s prosperity and, therefore, the US should take control of them. (Which it did, of course.)
The ocean beds of South China Sea and Indian Ocean are sitting on unimaginable wealth of mineral resources — potentially, the last frontier. USS John Paul Jones acted like a dog marking the lamp post. Spectre of acute future big-power scramble — not only with China or Russia but also involving European rivals — haunts Washington. With all their tragic colonial history, Indians tend to forget.
Thus, after 65 years, Britain is returning to “east of Suez”. The 65,000-ton HMS Queen Elizabeth, Britain’s newest aircraft carrier, is sailing to the Indian Ocean in its inaugural deployment. The grandiloquent title of the impressive 114-page document released last month by the British PM Boris Johnson says it all — Global Britain in a competitive age : The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy.
The document says rather explicitly on Page 66-69 under the sub-title The Indo-Pacific tilt: “Indo-Pacific is the world’s growth engine: home to half the world’s people; 40% of global GDP; some of the fastest- growing economies; at the forefront of new global trade arrangements; leading and adopting digital and technological innovation and standards; investing strongly in renewables and green tech; and vital to our goals for investment and resilient supply chains. The Indo- Pacific already accounts for 17.5% of UK global trade and 10% of inward FDI and we will work to build this further, including through new trade agreements, dialogues and deeper partnerships in science, technology and data.”
It concludes: “We (Britain) will also place a greater emphasis than before on the Indo-Pacific, reflecting its importance to many of the most pressing global challenges in the coming decade, such as maritime security and competition linked to laws, rules and norms.”
Again, the month of April will see French Foreign Minister Jean Yves Le Drian arriving in India to pursue political dialogue with India, and, importantly, the 42,500 tonne Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier is leading a strike force to exercise with INS Vikramaditya in two phases in Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.
Without this “big picture”, India will keep counting the trees for the wood. There are four things about the US Navy 7th Fleet statement on Friday that arrest attention. One, it asserts in the very first sentence that this freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) took place “inside India’s exclusive economic zone, without requesting India’s prior consent.”
Two, the statement rubs it in: “India requires prior consent for military exercises or manoeuvres in its exclusive economic zone or continental shelf, a claim inconsistent with international law. This freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) upheld the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea recognised in international law by challenging India’s excessive maritime claims.”
Now, don’t the Indians know it? Of course, they do. But the US must proclaim it to the entire IOR including Pakistan — and European capitals alike — that India’s vaulting ambitions will not go unchecked.
Three, the US Navy statement flags that FONOP “demonstrate that the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows.” Now, interestingly, this is Mike Pompeo’s standard anti-China language.
Plainly put, this is not a freak (“rare”) event. Besides, it’s the Arabian Sea now, but it can be Bay of Bengal tomorrow; it’s a warship sailing by today, but tomorrow it can be an American aircraft roaring in the Indian skies, asserting the US prerogative to operate in India’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
Four, the statement has been issued since the Indians failed to take seriously that the FONOP are “routine and regular… as we have done in the past.” Presumably, Delhi hushed up such previous incidents. But the FONOP missions “are not about one country, nor are they about making political statements.”
Simply put, the US regards India’s EEZ as part of “global commons” where it will exercise its (perceived) prerogative to act in its supreme national interests, as it deems fit. The “defining partnership of the 21st century” with India will not inhibit Washington from pursuit of American interests.
The bottom line is that in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), India should not punch above its weight. It may not be a coincidence that Washington administered this firm stricture within earshot of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s highly-publicised High Level Virtual Event on Thursday with Wavel Ramkalawan, Prime Minister of Seychelles, for “the joint e-inauguration of several development assistance projects funded by India in Seychelles and the handing over of a Fast Patrol Vessel supplied by India for the use of the Seychelles Coast Guard.”
Modi dramatically called Ramkalawan the “son of India”, alluding to the ex-pastor’s Bihari family lineage. But Washington regards Ramkalawan as the doggedly nationalistic leader of an IOR island nation that is a difficult neighbour, separated by a mere 1894 kilometres of blue waters from Diego Garcia. The establishment of a top secret military asset by India in Seychelles’ Assumption Island is bad enough but Modi government’s reported plans of setting up a military base in that island nation is an entirely different proposition. (For all one knows, the media leak bears the stamp of the US intelligence.)
Unsurprisingly, Delhi gave a supine response to the Pentagon warning — straight out of Chanakya’s rule book. However, now that the US warships have disappeared over the horizon, let us sit upon the ground and reflect sadly where all the heady Quad (“Asian NATO”) misadventure is taking India.
The heart of the matter is that the ruling elites’ seething sense of rivalry over China’s rise is engendering a warped Indian mindset. The Chinese commentators have been warning the Indian establishment repeatedly that its big power aspirations in the IOR are unrealistic. They were speaking from experience.
In fact, contrary to the Indian narrative that Quad membership can be leveraged to extract concessions from China, Beijing thinks that Quad is more India and Russia’s geopolitical headache, but it would intrinsically have no future, given internal contradictions.
The Chinese scholars have consistently held the view that although the mainstream of the US-Indian cooperation nowadays has been cooperation instead of competition, “in the specific case of the Indian Ocean, their respective strategic views on the regional power structure are deeply rooted and these will become more and more obvious in the case of the power shift” — to quote from the prominent Chinese scholar Chunhao Lou, Deputy Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations headquartered in Beijing.
In a 2012 essay titled US-India-China Relations in the Indian Ocean: A Chinese Perspective, the leading scholar added, “Although the China factor will always be there to promote US-India cooperation, the ‘democratic peace theory’ will give way to realistic politics, and the differing interests of the US and India in the IOR will be difficult to reconcile.” Chickens are coming home to roost.

With disengagement still incomplete in some areas almost a year since LAC stand-off began, Army is ensuring there are ‘adequate’ troops in Ladakh
New Delhi: Even as China drags its feet on further disengagement in eastern Ladakh, the Indian Army has put in place a new summer strategy for Ladakh. The force has also implemented key changes in the Order of Battle (ORBAT) to counter the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), with whom it has been locked in a face-off for nearly a year.
Sources in the defence and security establishment said the Army has retained a higher number of troops and equipment in Ladakh, besides the 3 Div, in charge of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and the 14 Corps Reserve. This includes some of the formations pumped in last year following the tensions with China, besides new elements brought in for summer deployment.
However, the sources said that while various rejigs have taken place, one key element is the focus on the ‘field peace turnover’ issue, because the Ladakh stand-off has put a lot of pressure on this aspect. ‘Field peace turnover’ is a term used for the policy that troops posted in a battle zone get peace postings after a particular period of time, and vice-versa. This is important to maintain the mental and physical fighting capability, and hence, is a worry for the force.
Sources said the Army’s focus is on ensuring that there are “adequate” troops to counter any Chinese aggression, not just in the 14 Corps area, but also in the reserve.
Key Changes In ORBAT
The Army had planned key changes with regard to its rebalancing. Army chief Gen. M.M. Naravane, in January this year, had outlined his broad plans for rebalancing from the western theatre to the north.
Sources said that more changes have been made and the process has been completed. Specific details are being withheld about the changes due to national security reasons.
A new order, sources said, has made changes in a key strike corps, which has now been given a dual task — with the primary focus on the northern borders and the secondary on the western borders. This means that the corps has had to let go of some of its formations while retaining others.
Sources said that the armoured division of the strike corps has now become the Army Headquarters Reserve Division.
Another division, drawn from a different pool and which focuses on mountain warfare, has now been attached with the strike corps, they said, adding that the existing artillery division under the strike corps will get specialised equipment more suited for mountain warfare.
The 17 Mountain Strike Corps (MSC), which had been operating till now with only one division, has now received another. Sources said that a division from the east has now been attached to the 17 MSC.
The sources added that as needed, the MSC will be used for both eastern and northern sectors.
The MSC is also getting a new HQ Reserve Artillery Brigade with specialised equipment.
“The changes effectively mean that instead of three strike corps focused on Pakistan, we now have two. The 17 MSC will get two divisions besides reserve formations,” a source said.
Sources also said that some of the other formations have undergone changes in terms of command and control, besides having more units attached to them for operational effectiveness.
India And China Both Maintain Additional Troops
The sources added that the situation in Ladakh is now such that the 14 Corps has more troops on the ground and in reserve, giving the Army more deployment options.
While one of the reserve divisions of the Army was pulled out as tensions stabilised, large elements from another one remained in Ladakh, besides the 3 Div. Other elements have also stayed put.
Sources said the numbers under the 3 Div, which has three brigades, is more than sufficient to counter any Chinese aggression along the LAC.
Besides, the 14 Corps itself has independent artillery, armoured and infantry brigades.
China has also maintained a large number of troops about 60-70 km from the LAC, who can be brought back in just a few hours.
Interestingly, as part of the troop push into eastern Ladakh, several units from Jammu and Kashmir were also pumped in last year. For example, following the Galwan clash, a Rashtriya Rifles (RR) sector was moved to the Galwan Valley area while units under Uniform Force, a formation in Jammu and Kashmir, were also brought in.
Sources explained that the RR troops were brought in as a back-up because at that time, the focus was on pushing in large numbers of troops since India was not sure where the conflict was headed.
Elements from the 17 MSC were also deployed besides the Special Frontier Force and the Para SF. Most of these have now been withdrawn, with regular soldiers holding fort.
14 Corps Has Enough Troops To Counter China
Former Northern Army Commander Lt Gen. D.S. Hooda (Retd) said the 14 Corps has enough troops to counter China.
“LAC can’t become like the Line of Control (LoC) where each inch of land is defended. The posture at the LAC has to be of deterrence. China should know that if they carry out an incursion in one side, India will carry out a counter response. For example, what happened in August last year on the southern banks of Pangong Tso, when Indians occupied the Kailash Range,” Hooda said.
It was during Lt Gen. Hooda’s tenure when planning took place for how the RR units, especially the Uniform Force, could effectively be used if needed for operations other than counter-insurgency.
Hooda welcomed the rebalance, he hoped that a lot of thought has gone into the process, since this also meant that conventional deterrence capability against Pakistan has reduced a bit.

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, April 12

The Haryana government today stopped the purchase of wheat in 18 mandis of the state for 24 hours due to the excess arrival of wheat in the mandis. The state government has urged the farmers to bring their crops to their respective procurement centres only after receiving the SMS for bringing their crops in the mandis.

Sonepat, April 12

The Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) today appealed to Dalits to reach the Delhi borders in large numbers to celebrate the Save Constitution Day and Kisan-Bahujan Ekta Diwas on April 14 on the occasion of BR Ambedkar’s birth anniversary. Dr Darshan Pal Singh, a member of the SKM, said: “Representatives of the Bahujan Samaj will be reaching Singhu, Tikri, Ghazipur and other borders on April 14 to support farmers.”

“Ambedkar is the architect of our Constitution, which the Modi government is hell bent on amending it,” he said.

Meanwhile, farmer leaders met protesters in their trolleys, camps and huts to boost their morale and urge them to stay at the morcha until the Centre repealed the three controversial farm laws.

Some farmers shared their problems related to sanitation at the protest sites and scarcity of water. The leaders assured them to resolve their problems. — TNS

A leading think tank for science and technology policy has said as Washington seeks to counter a rising China, no nation is more important than India with its abundance of highly skilled technical professionals and strong political and cultural ties with the United States.

It however cautioned that “overreliance” on India as an IT services provider could become a strategic problem if major disagreements emerge between the two nations on issues such as intellectual property, data governance, tariffs, taxation, local content requirements or individual privacy.

The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) think-tank in a report released on Monday describes the worst and best-case scenarios.

In one, tensions between India and China are reduced and the many business synergies between these two neighbouring nations come to the fore. In this case, the heart of the global economy would shift to the east, and there would be little the United States could do about it, the report stated.

In the second scenario, the interests of India and the United States become increasingly aligned, as the economic, military, and international relations challenges from China grow. In such a case, democratic norms could prevail across most of the developed world, as developing nations start looking to a ‘Delhi model’ instead of a ‘Beijing model’, it stated.

“As America seeks to counter a rising China, no nation is more important than India, with its vast size, an abundance of highly skilled technical professionals, and strong political and cultural ties with the United States. 

“But the parallels between America’s dependency on China for manufacturing and its dependency on India for IT services are striking,” said the think-tank.

According to David Moschella, a non-resident senior fellow at ITIF and co-author of the report, the same forces that increasingly divide the United States and China are now pushing the US and India closer together.

“The interplay between the United States, India, and China will shape global competition and digital innovation for years to come. While there is a wide range of possible scenarios, two things are clear: India should be an essential part of US efforts to compete with and reduce its dependence on China, and this will inevitably expand America’s global dependencies from manufacturing to services,” he said.

“America’s technology dependencies on India in the 2020s seem certain to rise. Yet it is important to know whether the United States will be dependent on a strategic partner with strong mutual interests, or an increasingly neutral rival,” said ITIF President Robert D. Atkinson, who co-authored the report with Moschella.

Much will depend on the strategic choices that the Joe Biden administration and Indian government make in the next several years. One thing is clear that economic and geopolitical stakes could not be higher, he said.

Photo for representation only.

Tribune News Service
Chandigarh, April 13

A web talk on “Indo Pacific: A Construct in Offing” was organised by the Department of National Security Studies, Central University of Jammu, today.

Highlighting the strategic significance of the Indo-Pacific region Prof Rakesh Datta from the Department of Defence and National Security Studies, Panjab University, Chandigarh, said that the geopolitical construct of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ region is not only related to the foreign policy strategies of major powers but also has serious implications for a rising power like India.

Stating that there was a need of maintaining balance of power by containing China in the Indo-Pacific through India’s rise in the region, he added that this region is becoming the most attractive destination for foreign direct investment, trade and business

Prof Datta stressed that there was a desperate need for cooperation in areas such as defence, information sharing, counter-terrorism and peacekeeping and in the given scenario, where the common threads of geopolitics, geoeconomics and geostrategy are closely intermeshed across the Indian and Pacific oceans, this new conceptualization needs to be accorded deeper consideration.

In his presidential remarks, Vice Chancellor of Jammu Central University, Prof Ashok Aima,  shared Chinese discernibility in trapping countries through debt diplomacy and was equivocal about bursting of Chinese bubble in the near future with the rise of market forces.

Prof Rasal Singh, head of the department at Jammu University gave his initial remarks on the relevant theme and highlighted the changing role of India internationally and how India is seen as a global partner by major powers at present.

Farmers organise ‘Kisan Conference’ at Talwandi Sabo on Baisakhi

BKU leader Joginder Singh Ugrahan addresses gathering during farmers’ conference on Baisakhi at Talwandi Sabo on Tuesday. Tribune photo: Pawan Sharma

Sukhmeet Bhasin

Tribune News Service

Talwandi Sabo, April 13

For the first time, farmers organised a “Kisan Conference” on the occasion of Baisakhi at Talwandi Sabo.

BKU Ekta-Ugrahan president Joginder Singh Ugrahan announced that he would continue his struggle for the rollback of ‘black’ agricultural laws introduced by the Narendra Modi government and “complete liberation from the imperialist plunder of the agricultural sector”.

He also announced that on April 21 a large convoy of thousands of farmers, youth and women from all over the state would again march towards Delhi under the leadership of union general secretary Sukhdev Singh Kokri Kalan and Jhanda Singh Jethuke.

He paid homage to the martyrs of Jallianwala Bagh. He said Modi government was acting like a puppet of domestic and foreign corporate houses. He said BJP government is trying to divide our farmers struggle on communal lines and establishing it only as a Sikh

struggle. The plans of the BJP also need to be defeated, he added.

He said Khalsa Panth was formed by Guru Gobind Singh to unite all the working peasants by abolishing the caste system to eradicate looting and oppression. He announced that a massive and forfeited march would be held towards Parliament in May to further the current struggle.

Another Sanyukt Kisan Morcha leader Balbir Singh Rajewal said that the farmers’ struggle which started from Punjab has turned into a mass struggle of the farmers of the entire country which is getting support from all sections of the people.

He said this historic peasant struggle had exposed the anti-people nature of the political parties. He said this struggle was between the people and the corporate houses of the country and abroad. Rajwal claimed that the Modi government had lost badly at the negotiating table.

Farmers leader Ruldu Singh Mansa, state president of Punjab Khet Mazdoor Union Zora Singh Nasrali, Kiranjit Singh Sekhon, DTF leader Resham Singh and employees leader Megh Singh Sidhu also addressed the gathering

Photo for representation.

Jagdalpur, April 13

A 59-year-old Chhattisgarh Armed Force (CAF) officer allegedly committed suicide by shooting himself with his service weapon in Bastar district on Tuesday, police said.

Kuber Singh, company commander of CAF’s 19th ‘Pokhran’ battalion, shot himself with his Insas rifle this evening at his unit’s camp in Karanpur village under Nagarnar police station limits, a senior official here said.

“When his colleagues heard the gunshot from his barrack, they rushed there and found him lying in a pool of blood. Singh was declared dead on arrival by doctors. Why he took this step is being probed,” he said.

He was a native of Chhatarpur in Madhya Pradesh but his family was currently staying in Bhilai in Chhattisgarh’s Durg district, the official said. PTI

Photo for representational purpose only

Washington, April 13

A top Republican Senator has urged the Biden administration to give CAATSA waiver to India, saying any plan to impose sanctions on New Delhi for buying Russian S-400 missile defence system would undermine its relationship with the US and also affect the QUAD’s ability to counter China. Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act or CAATSA is a tough US law which authorises the administration to impose sanctions on countries that purchase major defence hardware from Russia.

Senator Todd Young, a key member of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee, wrote in the Foreign Policy magazine that if the Biden administration imposed sanctions on India, it would not deter New Delhi’s purchase of the S-400 missile system from Russia, but would weaken two strategic fronts at a critical time — undermine Washington’s relationship with India. — PTI

What then are India’s options to protect its broader strategic interests, namely, keep the Chinese at bay. (Photo: AP)

The persisting stand-off with China must make India rethink its relationship structures both in the Asian and global context.  How is India geo-strategically placed currently? On its northern borders it confronts an aggressive China. On its western borders it is currently in a state of a partial thaw qua Pakistan. A melt that can again go back to a state of deep freeze at any point of time. On the east the strains with regard to the economic blockade of Nepal in 2015 still continue to linger. Bhutan is caught in the Sino-Indian cleft stick. Bangladesh, though reaffirming the centrality of India to its external environment, is both conscious of and eager to leverage the rise of China. Myanmar is in the throes of violent convulsions following a military coup d’état on February 1, 2021, that is having reverberations across the Indo-Burmese border as well.

Down south, the Rajapaksa administration in Sri Lanka still continues to bend to the Chinese wind. Relations with Maldives have definitely improved after Ibrahim Mohamed Solih ascended to office in September 2018. His predecessor President Abdulla Yameen foreign policy was most eloquently summed up by current Maldivian foreign minister Abdulla Shahid in the following sentence, “The mistake President Yameen made was to play India against China and China against India. That is a childish way of dealing with international relations; it will blow up in your own face.” However, Maldives’ debt to China that ranges from 1 to 3 billion USD should worry India, too, for Maldives’ GDP is only 5.46 billion USD in 2021. Things could easily go the Hambantota way. On balance it does not seem to be a very happy situation for India overall.

However, it is the reinvigorated “great game” in Afghanistan that could once again have a profound impact on the future of the region. As the Americans desperately attempt to sever the two-decade-old umbilical chord in Afghanistan, a deep void may open up in that country once more. Pakistan, Iran, Turkey China and Russia view this vacuum from their own strategic perch. India should also seriously evaluate what its hard strategic interests are in Afghanistan and then proceed accordingly.

Further west, the Saudi Arabia-UAE-Israel triangle is not going to have a free run of the Middle East and Gulf region as it did under the Trump Administration. President Joe Biden is seeking to pick up the threads of the Donald Trump aborted Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) colloquially referred to as the Iran Nuclear deal once again in Vienna through the E3+2 process

The JCPOA signed on July 14, 2015, was further endorsed by the UN Security vide Council Resolution 2231, adopted on July 20, 2015. President Trump unilaterally walked out of this arrangement on the 8th of May 2018 and reinstated sanctions against Iran.

The irony is that none of the Second Nuclear Age powers are party to the current process as they were not to the previous one either.

For India, the Iran situation is further compounded by the epic 25-year Sino-Iranian Strategic Partnership agreement signed on the 27th of March 2021 that envisages a range of investments by China into Iran in fields ranging from oil to agriculture. Interestingly, Iran metaphorically booted India out of the Chabahar-Zahedan railway link in the July of 2020, citing a lack of interest by the Indian side. If the Iran nuclear deal gets reinstated it would further expand Iranian influence in the Middle East.

Iran has been the biggest gainer of the ill-conceived American intervention in Iraq and the subsequent developments in the region post 2003. The US invasion of Iraq allowed Iran to create the Shia crescent encompassing Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and embracing the Shia populaces in each of these countries. Anchored by Tehran, it spawns major surrogate satellites such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, and southern Iraqi militias. A rejuvenated Iran in partnership with China having its own strategic interests in Afghanistan and profoundly averse to the growing Saudi-UAE-Israel-India bonhomie would be something New Delhi should watch closely.

India’s great power relationships are also far from rock steady. With Russia warming up to both Beijing and even Pakistan and the United States also requiring Pakistan’s help qua the Taliban to action the Doha deal signed between the US on February 29, 2020, things look rather messy for India.  

What then are India’s options to protect its broader strategic interests, namely, keep the Chinese at bay, guarantee that the Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) in the Indo-Pacific open, not allow Afghanistan to become Pakistan’s strategic depth, insulate India’s energy security from the evolving dynamic in the Middle East and ensure that the “great powers” while acting in their own interests do not end up acting against India’s interests

One option that needs to be focussed upon among myriad others is to reengage with the European continent across the spectrum. This essentially from a strategic perspective entails an assignation with Nato (North Atlantic Treaty Arrangement) Conceived as a cold war construct in April 1949 to keep the Soviet Union at bay, Nato, over the years, has evolved both in its role and character.

An engagement does not mean that India should become a Nato adjunct or be designated as a Non-Nato ally by the United States. What it would mean is that India would be able to have access to both political and the military-to-military relationship with 30 odd European nations. Europe remains the neglected template that can still be leveraged by India to further its interests.

The experience and evolution of the Nato alliance over the past seven decades could provide interesting institutional pointers to New Delhi if it were to consider at some point in time in the future the possibility of turning the “Quad” between US, Japan, Australia and India into the linchpin of a broader Asian Nato.

Moreover, India’s engagement with Nato would also be a salutary signal to even Russia that, while India values the “special relationship of the erstwhile years”, it would not be averse to exploring alternative avenues, including alliance arrangements, if Russia’s relationships with China or Pakistan start becoming too close for comfort.

To the Chinese, the message would also be clear that its belligerence would only expand the hub and spoke US-anchored security architecture in Asia currently from Japan all the way downwards to Australia into a more multilateral framework with Nato as the foundational template. It is an idea whose time may have come.…Tags: india relationship structures, india geo-strategically, sino-iranian strategic partnership, investments by china into iran, broader strategic interests, indian bilateral relations