Since India is now going to sit at the high table to decide the future of Afghanistan it must seriously consider what real strategic interests it has in Afghanistan. (Photo: AP)

Manish Tewari is a lawyer and a former Union minister. The views expressed are personal. Twitter handle @manishtewari

Consider the following vignettes. A child born in the December of 1979 in Afghanistan would be today 41 years old. Across four decades that middle-aged person now has only known strife, violence and bloodshed as the only normal. It was on the 24th of December of that year, Soviet Tanks had rolled across the Amu Daraya to commence a brutal nine-year occupation of that antediluvian acreage situated on the crossroads of time.

It was the year 2016. For 15 long years Afghanistan had now been free of the malevolent influence of the Taliban. At a Track-2 event, I ran into a former chief of the Afghan National Army early one morning. I asked him, how is the situation in Afghanistan currently? He said we have democratic government, a free and a vibrant press — print, TV, radio and digital — encompassing over 1,800 media outlets, girls and women in schools and colleges. Any Afghan can even tell the President that he is in the wrong. It was a learning to see that a former military man was calculating the achievements of the past decade-and-a-half in intangibles rather than gain or loss of territory qua the Taliban.

Cut to 2021 and Joe Biden is the third consecutive President wanting to end America’s longest war. Two decades ago, the Americans had gone into Afghanistan after 9/11 hunting for Osama bin Laden and the Al Qaeda after the Taliban leader Mullah Omar refused to turn them over to the US. While Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar were both dead, the Taliban and even the Al Qaeda are both alive and kicking.

In fact, the United States, after holding leading elements of the Taliban leadership in primitively medieval incarceration in Guantanamo Bay for over 15 years or more, in a complete volte-face on February 29, 2020, cut a deal with the “same eminences” in Doha. One of the essential elements of the deal being total withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan by 1st of May 2021

In a recent letter to President Ashraf Ghani, the new US Secretary of State Antony Blinken virtually read out the riot act to the Afghan government to fall in line with the latest US approach to the Afghan quagmire. The letter has been made public by the Afghan news outlet Tolo News. Neither has it been denied by the US or the Afghan government, respectively.

The missive sketches out the following modes for an across-the-board settlement to the Afghan imbroglio pegged on the desirability of an enduring ceasefire by the Taliban. It, therefore, envisages ministerial-level parleys under the auspices of the United Nations between Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran and India and the United States of America to deliberate upon a unified approach to supporting peace in Afghanistan, a senior-level meeting between the Taliban and the Afghan government hosted by Turkey to take place shortly to finalise a peace agreement  between the two.

It mentions a revised plan to operationalise a ninety-day reduction in violence programme predicated upon thwarting a spring offensive by the Taliban. The dispatch further calls upon President Ghani to consider US proposals for a roadmap targeted at a new and inclusive Afghan government.

The letter closes with a rather portentous caveat stating: “We are considering the full withdrawal of our forces by May 1st, as we consider other options. Even with the continuation of financial assistance from the United States to your forces after an American military withdrawal, I am concerned the security situation will worsen and that the Taliban could make rapid territorial gains

Since India is now going to sit at the high table to decide the future of Afghanistan it must seriously consider what “real” strategic interests it has in Afghanistan.

Writing a decade earlier on the same question veteran journalist Shekhar Gupta opined, “It will still be a country of great strategic importance. But for whom, is the question. It will be of no strategic importance to us. None of our supplies or trade comes to Afghanistan. None of our bad guys hide there. No Afghan has ever been involved in a terror attack on India. In fact, almost never has a terror attack on us been even planned in the more precise Af-Pak region. They have all been planned and executed between Muzaffarabad, Muridke, Karachi and Multan. Almost never has an Afghan, Pakhtun, Baluch, Tajik, any ethnicity, been involved in a terror attack in India.

It’s always been the Punjabis. Ask anybody in the Indian army who has served in Kashmir and he will tell you that the intruders he fought were exactly of the same ethnic stock as the bulk of the Pakistani army he may have to fight in a real war: the Punjabi Muslims. Leave Afghanistan to the Pakistanis. If the Pakistani army thinks it can fix, subdue and control Afghanistan, after the British, Soviets and Americans have failed to do precisely this at the peak of each one’s superpowerdom, why not let the Pakistanis try their hand at it? If they pour another ten divisions and half of the ISI into that hapless country now, isn’t it that much of a relief for us on our western borders?”

This assessment is as relevant today as it was a decade ago. Hard questions with regard to our “real interests” in Afghanistan were never asked then and are not being asked even now. Would a foothold in Afghanistan help us in the event of a two-front war with China and Pakistan? Highly unlikely till the time we are not willing to put boots on the ground in Afghanistan. Is it desirable to put boots on the ground even if the Afghans were to request Indian military presence after the Americans leave? Highly undesirable. The last time India had seriously considered such a request was in early 2003 to deploy US forces in Iraq. Prime Minister Vajpayee had rightly refused to do so. Does a presence in Afghanistan open up new vistas for India in Central Asia? Not really, after Iran dropped India from the Chabahar to Zahedan just before it inked a USD 400 billion 25-year strategic partnership with China.

While it is heady to be invited to the high table, as the saying goes, there is no free lunch in life. India needs to be careful.…Tags: afghanistan, india, strategic interest in afghanistan, us military withdraw from afghanistan, pakistan, china, india-afghanistan relations

The probe by the Army was initiated based on inputs by its military intelligence wing and other complaints

File photo for representation.

New Delhi, March 14

The Army has handed over to the CBI a probe into alleged irregularities in a test held in Punjab for selection of officers, official sources said on Sunday.

The Army was conducting internal investigation into the alleged malpractices in the test in one of the centres in Punjab, they said.

The Service Selection Board test was being conducted by Service Selection Centres in Punjab sometime back, the sources said.

The probe by the Army was initiated based on inputs by its military intelligence wing and other complaints.

“The probe has been handed over to the Central Bureau of Investigation as multiple agencies, including several civilian ones, are involved in the entire process,” said a source.

The Army had launched a probe into the alleged malpractices after receiving complaints about them.

“The Army does not tolerate any irregularities or corruption. So, a CBI probe has been ordered into the case,” the source said. —PTI

Recalling the exploits of Capt Devinder Singh Ahlawat and Lt Col Narinder Singh Sandhu of 10 Dogra, and Brig K Gowrishankar, Commander of 86 Infantry Brigade

Lt Col Dilbag Singh Dabas (retd)

The community hall in Beri village in present-day Jhajjar district of Haryana has an old black marble stone on which are engraved in golden letters the names of the bravehearts from the villages around who laid down their lives in the service of the nation during World War I and II. A close look at the long list reveals that Gochhi village has the maximum number of names. It also has the maximum number of families with a military background, some even going back to five generations.

Captain Devinder Singh Ahlawat was a third generation soldier; his grandfather fought in World War I and his father was part of live action in World War II and also during India’s wars in 1947-48, and 1962. Devinder, son of Lieutenant Colonel Subha Chand Ahlawat, was born on July 4, 1947 at Gochhi village in Rohtak district of then undivided Punjab.

After a year in Government College, Rohtak, he joined the National Defence Academy and was commissioned into 10th Battalion of The Dogra Infantry Regiment on December 15, 1967. The battalion was raised by Lt Col Kapur Singh Ahlawat on June 1, 1966.

Dogras have throughout outperformed themselves in all the wars fought since World War I, but a battalion earning two Maha Vir Chakras within just about five years of its raising speaks volumes of the training, commitment and dedication of its men and officers. 10 Dogra is proudly referred to as ‘Terrific Tenth’.

While raising 10 Dogra, Lt Col Ahlawat, also incidentally from Gochhi, never imagined that his own bhatija (nephew) would join it and make his battalion proud.

The India-Pakistan border in Punjab generally follows the Ravi river between Gurdaspur and Attari and Sutlej between Ferozepur and Fazilka. There are three bridges over these two rivers at Dera Baba Nanak (DBN), Hussainiwala and Sulemanke. Of these, the bridges at DBN and Sulemanke were under Pakistani control. The areas east of these two bridges gave the Pakistan army readymade bridgeheads where from it could launch its strike formations across the border into Indian territory.

It was necessary to eliminate the Pakistani enclaves at DBN and Sulemanke to prevent Pakistan from using them as launch pads for any offensive. 10 Dogra and 71 Armoured Regiment were tasked to capture the east-end of DBN bridge near the enclave, which was heavily fortified by the enemy with concrete pillboxes and bunkers.

In the first phase, ‘Alpha’ and ‘Bravo’ companies of 10 Dogra were to capture the depth bundh, bundh junction and river bundh. In the next phase, ‘Delta’ company commanded by Major Inder Singh and ‘Charlie’ company by Devinder Ahlawat, now a Captain, were tasked to capture the link bundh, rail bundh and road bundh.

The companies made steady progress in decimating the Pakistanis and clearing the bundhs allotted to them. Devinder’s company was to follow ‘Bravo’ and clear the most formidable link bundh in the second phase. And the intrepid Ahlawat led his company from the front and cleared the supposedly impregnable bundh which cost him his life, but for the ultimate cause and in the best traditions of the Indian Army. The grateful nation recognised the conspicuous bravery of Captain Devinder Singh Ahlawat and awarded him the Maha Vir Chakra, posthumously. The battle account reads:

“During the 1971 India-Pakistan war, 10 Dogra was tasked to capture Dera Baba Nanak bridgehead on the night of December 5/6. As per the battalion attack plan, ‘C’ company led by Captain Devinder Singh Ahlawat was to capture east-end of the bridge on which the enemy defences were based on a series of concrete embankments with anti-tank guns and heavy automatic weapons. The company, led by Captain Ahlawat, came under heavy machine gun fire from a concrete pillbox. With complete disregard to his life, Captain Ahlawat charged onto the pillbox, grabbed the burning hot machine gun barrel with his right hand and threw a grenade into the pillbox with his left, killing the firing crew, thus making it possible to continue the momentum of the attack and capture of the objective soon thereafter. In this action, Captain Ahlawat lost his life and his body was found with six bullet wounds on his chest, and his hand still clutching the machine-gun barrel.”

Captain Devinder Singh Ahlawat met his date with fate unmarried but not unsung — the black marble sacred stone in Beri Community Hall has his name, too, engraved in golden letters. In his honour, the Army Welfare Housing Complex in Sector 56 in Gurugram, is also named after this braveheart.

From the battle for Dera Baba Nanak emerged two more Maha Virs: Lieutenant Colonel Narinder Singh Sandhu, Commanding Officer of 10 Dogra, and Brigadier K Gowrishankar, Commander of 86 Infantry Brigade.

Having taken over 10 Dogra just a few months before the war, Lt Col Sandhu, an alumnus of Khalsa College, Amritsar, for his dynamic leadership and bold execution of the attack plan, was awarded the Maha Vir Chakra. The battle account reads:

“On December 5, 1971, 86 Infantry Brigade Group was ordered to eliminate the Pakistan bridgehead across river Ravi, north of Dera Baba Nanak. The area consisted of a series of embankments defended by an elaborate system of concrete defence works housing machine guns, anti-tank weapons and other small arms. 10 Dogra battalion, under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Narinder Singh Sandhu, was allotted the task of capturing the east-end of the bridgehead, which was the hub of the enemy defences in the area. Lieutenant Colonel Sandhu led his battalion most skillfully when the men fought from bunker to bunker to capture the objective. In the bitter fighting, he was seriously wounded in his leg; however, with complete disregard to his own safety, he continued to lead his men with cool courage and determination. His exemplary conduct and inspiring leadership so enthused his men that the vital objective was captured with minimum casualties to the battalion.”

The conspicuous courage and outstanding leadership of Brigadier Krishnaswamy Gowrishankar, Commander of 86 Infantry Brigade, originally from Corps of Signals, too, did not go unnoticed. For his boldness and originality in planning and execution of the offensive, he was awarded the Maha Vir Chakra.

CPPCC lauds Xi Jinping for ‘achievements’ despite unprecedented difficulties

Full support: The carefully choreographed sessions sent out the clear message that China’s leadership is determined to achieve its expansive ambitions. Feuters

Jayadeva Ranade

President, Centre for China Analysis and Strategy

The annual plenary sessions of China’s top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and its version of a parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), opened in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on March 3 and 4, respectively. The carefully choreographed sessions sent out the clear message that China’s communist leadership is determined to achieve its expansive ambitions. The emphasis on international connectivity projects, national defence and domestic security reinforce this.

State-owned CCTV telecast images of an assured and self-confident Chinese President Xi Jinping walking into the Great Hall of the People on the opening day. The other six members of the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) walked more than the usual two to three respectful steps behind him.

CPPCC vice-chairman Zhang Qingli announced the opening of the session. The CPPCC oversees formulation and implementation of policies for non-Chinese Communist Party (CCP) entities, ethnic and religious minorities. Him making the announcement conveyed that there would be no change in China’s tough policies towards ethnic and religious minorities. Zhang Qingli, former Tibet Party Secretary, came to international notice in March 2008 when he said: ‘The Dalai is a wolf in monk’s robes, a devil with a human face but the heart of a beast!’

On the sidelines of the NPC on March 5, Xi Jinping instructed NPC delegates from the restive Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region to popularise the use of Mandarin in schools and resolve ethnic tensions. Xinhua quoted him as telling delegates that ‘Cultural identity is the deepest form of identity. It is also the root and soul of ethnic unity and harmony.’ He told them to use ‘solid and meticulous efforts’ to achieve ethnic unity and ensure that standard Chinese and state-compiled textbooks are unwaveringly adopted. He said all young people in Inner Mongolia should understand the CCP’s policies and revolutionary heritage.

As many as 2,953 deputies to the NPC and more than 2,106 members of the CPPCC listened to the government work report presented by Premier Li Keqiang. Like last year, this report contained 13 references to Xi Jinping and bore his imprimatur. It gave unequivocal credit for last year’s achievements despite unprecedented difficulties ‘to the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, to the sound guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, and to the concerted efforts of the Party, the armed forces….’ The draft was earlier approved at a politburo meeting chaired by Xi Jinping on February 26.

Reflecting stress on the economy, Li Keqiang set this year’s GDP growth rate target at 6 per cent, lower than expected by many Chinese economists who anticipated he might either forgo the numerical target or set an ambitious 8 per cent growth rate. Stating that the central government will tighten its belt, he said the government would cut the fiscal deficit target to 3.2 per cent of China’s projected GDP this year. He announced plans to create 11 million new jobs, up from the 2020 target of 9 million and said by 2025, China would cut carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 18 per cent from 2020 levels. He noted the ‘solid progress’ in the Belt and Road Initiative, stressed maintenance of social harmony and stability and said science and technology would be strengthened to provide strategic support for development.

The ministry of finance’s report revealed either cuts, or no increases, in the budgets of most ministries. In 2020, there was a 50 per cent across-the-board cut in the budgets of ministries except those of national defence and public security. This year, too, national defence received 1.35 trillion yuan

($209 billion), a hike of 6.8 per cent. A large portion is intended for defence R&D and training of the PLA. Public security was allocated 185.092 billion yuan from the central budget, or a 0.7 per cent increase identical to that for last year. Expenditure on public security has increased each year for the past over five years. The push for major projects promoting coordinated regional development and other major projects such as the development of new infrastructure and urbanisation initiatives was encouraged with the earmarking of 610 billion yuan, or 10 billion yuan more than that for last year.

Reiterating the central government’s decision to tighten its belt to channel more funds to provincial governments, the finance ministry listed the breakdown of spending as follows: 147.025 billion yuan on general public services, down 14.1 per cent; 50.414 billion yuan on foreign affairs, a drop of 1.9 per cent; 166.344 billion yuan on education, the same as the year before — but including local outlays national spending will increase by 5.2 per cent; 322.71 billion yuan on science and technology, roughly equivalent to the previous year; 122.473 billion yuan on stockpiling grain, edible oils, and other materials, basically the same as in 2020; and 599.824 billion yuan on debt interest payments, up 8.3 per cent.

Especially significant for India is China’s focus on developing strategically important international connectivity in the region. While the CPEC, BCIM and Trans-Himalayan Corridor were mentioned in the National Transportation Network for 2035 issued last month, coinciding with the NPC session the chairman of Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) Qi Zhala on March 4, inaugurated construction of the 1,800-km railway directly connecting Lhasa to Chengdu. Costing $49.4 billion and scheduled for completion by 2030, the project was described by Xi Jinping as of ‘great significance to maintaining national unity, promoting ethnic unity and consolidating stability in border areas.’

Secured 103 votes in the House of 145

Singh, from the party of Prime Minister Imran Khan became the first turban-clad Sikh representative from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan’s Senate on March 3. — File Photo

Islamabad, March 12

Gurdeep Singh from the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party took the oath on Friday as a Senator, becoming the first turban-clad Sikh representative in the upper house of Pakistan’s Parliament.

Singh, from the party of Prime Minister Imran Khan became the first turban-clad Sikh representative from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan’s Senate on March 3.

He defeated rival candidates on a minority seat by a huge margin in the election to the upper chamber of Parliament.

Singh secured 103 votes in the House of 145 whereas Jamiat Ulema-e Islam (Fazlur) candidate Ranjeet Singh secured just 25 votes and Asif Bhatti of the Awami National Party received 12.

Forty-seven other Senators also took oath on Friday.

Senator Sayed Muzafar Hussain Shah, who has been nominated as the presiding officer, administered the oath to the members-elect. They have been sworn in as Senators for a term of six years – 2021-27. 

Singh hails from Swat district, is the first turban-clad Sikh representative from the province in the Senate.

After taking oath as member of Senate Gurdeep Singh told PTI that he would work for the betterment of the minority community in the country. He was confident that being Senator he would have the opportunity to serve his community in a better way. PTI

Posters were made by cadets in the memory of martyrs

The cadets also recited poems on patriotic themes. — Tribune Photo

Tribune News Service
Chandigarh, March 12

As a run-up to the celebrations of 75 years of Independence, Air Wing NCC cadets of DAV College Chandigarh spruced up the cenotaphs of martyrs from the institute which have been installed in the college campus, and also beautified the surrounding area.

These cenotaphs have been dedicated to Param Vir Chakra recipient, Capt Vikaram Batra, Maha Vir Chakra recipient Lt Rajeev Sandhu, Vir Chakra recipient Capt Vijayant Thapar and Maj. Sandeep Sagar.

The college principal, Dr Pawan Sharma, Commanding Officer of No.1 Chandigarh NCC Air Squadron, Gp Capt MR Pandeya and Dr Shilpi Ajuja, caretaker NCC officer, along with other staff members and students paid floral tributes to the martyrs.

Posters were made by cadets in the memory of martyrs.

The cadets also recited poems on patriotic themes and expressed their opinions in the form of a speech, highlighting the heroic deeds of the brave hearts of the country.

Interacting with the cadets, Dr Sharma felicitated them for this initiative and said that by virtue of their involvement in social activities, the youth will become more responsible and better citizens.

The exercise to check the age of paddy/rice it procures through scientific means is being started by Andhra Pradesh from April

The exercise to check the age of paddy/rice it procures through scientific means is being started by Andhra Pradesh from April. File photo

Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, March 11

The Centre is planning to launch an initiative to ascertain the “age” of crops being brought for procurement in ‘mandis’.

This is to check the “recycling of grains” from earlier crop years in the current season, top officials from the Department of Food and Public Distribution said on Friday.

The exercise to check the age of paddy/rice it procures through scientific means is being started by Andhra Pradesh from April.

Secretary of the Department of Food and Public Distribution Sudhanshu Pandey, while unveiling initiatives of the Centre regarding reforms in the Targeted Public Distribution, including the “One Nation One Ration Card” programme, said the Centre too is planning to initiate the process in order “to check recycling of crops” from previous years.

The government is committed to buying/procuring from the current crop season, however, often it is seen that in states like Punjab grain brought for procurement in mandis is more than the production that year.

Railway passes for Gallantry Awardees*

There are about 250 Indian Army officers/JCO/OR who are gallantry awardees ( Chakra Series) whose NOK are father/mother.

These NOKs are entitled to a complimentary railway pass issued by the Indian Railways which entails the NOK to complimentary travel in the Indian Railways for self and a companion .

Many of these NOK might not be aware of this benefit as the earlier rule of the pass being entitled to only the NOK ( Spouse/Child) has now been changed to NOK ( Spouse,Mother and Father ).

I had assisted in the issue of the pass to the parents of my coursemate , Capt R Subramanian , KC ( P) who was unmarried.

The process is very simple as it consists

1.Personal application

2. Authenticated copy of gazette notification of the award

3. Authenticated copy of the service particulars booklet issued by records/MP5/6

4. 3 passport size photographs .

The application needs to be addressed to the General Manager, Railways of the appropriate region ( North/South/Central/Western /Eastern/NE /SC etc ).

The pass is issued in about 48 hours .

I have carried out an open source data analysis of deceased Indian Army Personnel who have been awarded gallantry awards ( Chakra Series) ,

You can reach out to me and I shall provide you with the details of the deceased unmarried solider and his NOK of your unit/regiment/course affiliated personnel

Regards

Col Vembu Shankar, SC
Indian Army Veteran
PROJECT SAMBANDH
Website:
www.projectsambandh.com
Email:
theprojectsambandh@gmail.com
Whatsapp
https://wa.me/message/3IQCWZGFETVPB1
Tele:
+91 8777877409

Areas where the Indian military holds a tactical advantage need to be identified and occupied, if required, as a bargaining chip on the negotiating table as was done with respect to Pangong Tso. Conversely, we should be prepared to thwart similar designs by the Chinese where we are at a disadvantage. An improvement of infrastructure in forward areas along the LAC is crucial.

Glaring point: China has always followed the policy of two steps forward, one step back all along the LAC. PTI

Gen Deepak Kapoor (retd)

Former Chief of the Army Staff

The hope that withdrawal by the Chinese and Indian forces from the north and south of Pangong Tso lake, respectively, to status quo as existing in April-end 2020 would lead to a similar resolution at Gogra, Hot Springs and Depsang Plains appears to be gradually fading. This belief is further strengthened not only by a lack of progress during subsequent talks, but also by the statement of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on March 7.

At his annual press conference, while blaming India for the standoff, Wang stated that the border issue was not the ‘whole story’ of the bilateral relationship and seemed to suggest that the Ladakh issue should be left on the backburner while moving on to ‘business as usual’ in other fields. Thus, the ‘salami slicing’ strategy was sought to be shifted out of focus and glossed over in quest of ‘normalisation’ of mutual relationship.

Some aspects of the Ladakh imbroglio stand out. The policy of two steps forward, one step back has been followed by China all along the 3,488-km Line of Actual Control (LAC) while gradually creeping forward over the last 50 years. This is unlikely to stop, considering the aggressive and expansionist approach adopted by China as its power grows. Its actions in the South China Sea (SCS), East China Sea (ECS) and towards Taiwan are clear examples.https://a81aff2a5c4d46695228d6af8c6855e5.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-37/html/container.html

Secondly, while healthy competition between the two regional powers is welcome, the reality of such competition harbouring inherent seeds of conflict cannot be wished away.

Sources of raw material and markets for finished products intensify this economic competition, invariably leading to discord. Efforts to retard India’s economic growth by forcing it to divert its limited resources towards defence are a good reason, besides others, to prolong the Ladakh standoff.https://a81aff2a5c4d46695228d6af8c6855e5.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-37/html/container.html

It is interesting to note that India has spent a whopping Rs 20,776 crore on emergency purchases to meet the Ladakh challenge. The possibility of further such purchases to guard the entire LAC remains strong with no end to the standoff in sight.

Thirdly, Covid-19 has been a major factor in checking India’s growth trajectory. On the other hand, China has come out relatively unscathed from the pandemic, thus resulting in its economy rapidly bouncing back. Obviously, it felt this was the opportune time to strike a weakened India and achieve a resounding victory, perhaps without even firing a shot.

That subsequent events proved this appreciation wrong is indeed a tribute to India’s defence forces and their ability to defend the nation at all costs. However, loss of face is hard to digest by a Chinese mind, thus increasing the chances of the faceoff continuing.

Lastly, India, having occupied important features on the Kailash Range south of Pangong Tso, had bargaining chips on the negotiating table to ensure the Chinese withdrawal from features north of Pangong Tso as part of quid pro quo.

Disengagement having happened on both sides of Pangong Tso, India now has no such bargaining leverage to make the Chinese withdraw from other friction points in east Ladakh. This aspect heightens the likelihood of the Chinese not moving back from these friction points, thus prolonging the faceoff.

In such a scenario, India has to orchestrate its actions both at the international and domestic levels. At the international level, a consensual approach with like-minded nations is essential to thwart Chinese expansionist designs. Thus, the impetus being given to Quad and its deliberations are a step in the right direction. The Quad’s consensus on observing the rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region and resisting any unilateral actions to change quo would be keenly watched.

Likewise, a number of ASEAN countries are affected by arbitrary Chinese expansionist designs in the SCS. They need to come together and collectively resist any subversion of the UN Convention on Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) by China. That China has refused to implement the International Court of Justice (ICJ) decision on Scarborough Shoal is indicative of a clear breach of the rule of law.

Collective pressure through forums like the SCO, BRICS, EU and UNSC would also help in keeping the Chinese aggressive approach in check.

At the domestic level, experience has shown that a firm stance against China has always paid dividends. Wang Dung, Chumar, Demchok and Doklam are examples. The need to resist every attempt at grabbing territory cannot be overemphasised.

Areas where the Indian military holds a tactical advantage need to be identified and occupied, if required, as a bargaining chip on the negotiating table as was done with respect to Pangong Tso. Conversely, we should be prepared to thwart similar designs by the Chinese where we are at a disadvantage.

An improvement of infrastructure in forward areas along the LAC, matching those existing in Tibet on the Chinese side, is crucial to enabling troops on the forward line to defend the territorial integrity of the nation successfully.

Finally, Pakistan taking advantage of an Indian confrontation with China cannot be ruled out. Its past defeats have left it thirsting for revenge. This raises the possibility of a two-front threat to India. It is, therefore, important to prepare for such an eventuality by raising the defence budget to at least three per cent of the GDP. Important committees in the past have made this recommendation to the government. The sooner it is implemented, the better.