Current Events :
IT was a picturesque and emotional drive through soldiering memories and history, my last in uniform before ‘hanging up my spurs’. The staff car carrying me was departing Srinagar’s Badami Bagh Cantt, with the Zabarwan mountains towering above it, for Yol Cantt, nestled in the snow-clad Dhauladhars in the Kangra valley. Posted as the Chief of Staff to the under-raising Rising Star Corps there, I wasn’t riding alone. My many yesterdays were riding shotgun with me, scattered over almost 39 years in uniform.
I had first entered the Valley after a tempestuous year as Rashtriya Rifles Sector Deputy in the badlands of Doda. Underdeveloped amid an oasis of excellence in erudite Bhadarwah and sapphire-encrusted Kishtwar, terrorist haven Doda was about sparse habitats perched above the Chenab. Many close encounters remain singed in memory along with touching human interest tales. RR Sector command in South Kashmir followed where the Lidder debouches the gaunt Kolahoi massif and ice floe-imbued Sheshnag Lake to meld into the Jhelum at Khanabal — Kashmiri for merging waters.
I recall briefing the stern Army Chief, Gen VP Malik, about ongoing operations. He had limited time; I was seeking his approval to retain command after a gunshot injury. His slight smile of approval after briefing remains a high because in operations, the Chief was invariably dead serious.
Later, posted in the Dagger Division, I was to brief foreign officers attending the National Defence College course on operational challenges at Baramulla. Expecting the standard graphics-heavy presentation, they were intrigued to have the GOC show them just one slide — happy children bursting out of school with flying hair and orbiting bags. ‘Gentlemen, this is my desired end-state,’ I said.
Badami Bagh followed; it’s amazing awaam steeped in seerat and soorat and exquisite taqreer (tete-e-tete) ever since Asoka the Great founded Srinagar/Pandrethan in the 3rd century BC. Pre-inauguration, I had briefed President APJ Abdul Kalam on the Ibadat-e-Shahadat Museum. The erudite President expressed his joy in finding the museum ‘focusing not just on heroism, weapons/war-like material, but also on highlighting the history, heritage and unique culture of Kashmir.’ He recalled the 14th century Kashmiri mystic poetess, Lal Ded’s vakhs (verse) on regaining paradise by reviving heritage and culture. My Corps Commander Gen Nirbhay Sharma, who anchored the project, smiled as we locked eyes.
I bade farewell to arms in Kashmir, exiting the unforgettable Valley through the Jawahar Tunnel across the Pir Panjal at Banihal on the wistful notes of ‘Auld Lang Syne’.
New Delhi, January 6
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Friday reviewed the expansion project of INS Baaz, Navy’s strategic airfield in Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Located at Campbell Bay in Great Nicobar Island, INS Baaz is under the joint services Andaman and Nicobar Command of the Indian Armed Forces. It overlooks the Strait of Malacca, the sea route through which Chinese ships pass. The airfield is just 145 kms from Indonesia and overlooks the ‘Six Degree Channel’ between Great Nicobar and the Indonesian island of Sumatra.
India, in March last year, landed a special operations plane, C-130J, at INS Baaz. The plane can land and take-off from short runaways. The runaway at INS Baaz is being expanded to operate the maritime surveillance planes like Boeing P-8I and even drones.
INS Baaz, was opened in 2012 and smaller planes could operate from, there.
Rajnath Singh was familiarised with the terrain of the Nicobar Islands. He later visited Indira Point, the southernmost tip of the country.
The minister had arrived at Port Blair on Thursday to review the operational preparedness of the Andaman and Nicobar Command (ANC). In his address to the officers and jawans, he talked about the border standoff with China and lauded the bravery of Indian soldiers from Galwan in Ladakh to Yangtse in Arunachal Pradesh.
He also visited the ANC’s Joint Operations Centre (JOC), which is the nerve centre for integrated planning for surveillance and conducting operations.
Besides INS Baaz, there are plans to extend the runways at Car Nicobar and Shibpur in North Andaman.
Lieutenant General Ajai Singh, Commander-in-Chief, Andaman and Nicobar Command, accompanied the Defence Minister.
UK warship docks at Andamans
New Delhi: A UK’s warship, HMS Tamar, sailed to Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Friday as part of its permanent deployment in the Indo-Pacific. Over the next five days, the ship and its crew will undertake maritime exercises with the Indian Navy, the British High Commission said.
Srinagar, January 5
The strategic Zojila pass on the Srinagar-Leh national highway, connecting the Kashmir valley with the Ladakh region, has remained open through December and January despite heavy snowfall due to the relentless efforts of the Border Roads Organisation, a defence spokesperson said on Thursday.
BRO ‘Karmyogis’, with their relentless effort under ‘Project Beacon’, facilitated connectivity to Ladakh region by ensuring that the Zojila pass remained open despite heavy snowfall, the official said.
Zojila, which falls on Srinagar-Sonamarg-Gumri road, is located at an elevation of 11,643 feet and serves as the lifeline between the Kashmir Valley and Ladakh, the official said.
“Last year, Zojila Pass was kept open till January 3. This year once again due to the concerted efforts of Project Beacon, the Zojila Pass was kept open for the first time ever till January 6,” he said.
The spokesperson said the extended opening of Zojila pass was carried out by BRO for the first time in 2020 keeping in view the situation at the northern borders.
Since then, it has been continued in 2021 and 2022, the official said.
“Freezing temperatures of up to negative 20 degrees Celsius, insufficient oxygen, high winds and blizzards and frequent avalanches in this terrain did not deter the BRO karmyogis, who despite all odds, ensured unhindered movement of vehicles across Zojila Pass in the current winter season,” he added.
The spokesperson said more than 20 heavy duty plant equipments, including four state of the art snow cutters, were employed to keep the axis open.
The BRO has also completed successful trials of route guidance and navigation system technology for snow clearance to enhance efficiency and safety while performing such operations, the official said.
‘Project Beacon’ has ensured connectivity to strategic requirements of Indian Army and survival requirements of the local population of Ladakh, the spokesperson said.
The snowfall in last two-three days has resulted in slippery road conditions along Zojila Pass on the Srinagar – Leh highway, causing disruption to traffic movement. Detachments of ‘Project Beacon’ with pre-positioned equipments located at Gumri, Bajri Nallah, Baltal, Sonamarg and Gagangir played a key role in opening the pass despite inclement weather conditions, the official said.
“Day and night lost their relevance when six teams deployed at different locations worked 24×7 to keep the road open during extremely challenging conditions since the onset of winters in 2022. Approximately 13,500 vehicles crossed Zojila since November 25 while moving from Kashmir to Ladakh and vice versa,” the spokesperson said.
Despite closure of Zojila Pass, snow clearance operations by ‘Project Beacon’ will continue unabated in order to keep the Sonamarg Tourist Destination open throughout the winters as per requirements of Kashmir Division, he added.
NEW Year greetings inundated social media on December 31 to herald the arrival of 2023. However, given the blighted nature of 2022 that began with the feckless Russian invasion of Ukraine in February and was exacerbated by the lack of global resolve to address the climate change crisis and the lingering/mutating Covid detritus, it is unlikely that this year will be happy in any substantive manner — for the world in general, the extended southern Asian region and India in particular.
The cooperation between China and Pakistan and the contradictory, yet close, US-Pak ties apropos of Afghanistan and terrorism will pose a challenge for New Delhi.
The impact on the global economy due to the turbulence of 2022 was pithily summed up by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who cautioned on January 2 that 2023 will be a ‘tough year’ with almost one-third of the world’s economies expected to be in recession.
As per an earlier IMF assessment, global growth was forecast to slow down from 6 per cent in 2021 to 3.2 per cent in 2022 and 2.7 per cent in 2023. This is deemed to be the weakest growth profile since 2001 and the IMF chief noted that the three major economies — the US, the EU and China — are all slowing down simultaneously. While India has managed the economic slowdown better than most of the major economies, the overall drop in global growth will impact India’s export potential with attendant fiscal challenges — particularly in relation to fund allocation for the Defence Budget that will be finalised soon.
The global and regional geopolitical domains are fraught with many developments that augur ill for India’s composite national security in the year ahead. The Ukraine war is likely to be pursued with renewed vigour, with the use of more lethal ordnance, even as the tragic conflict is poised to enter the second year. This exigency will further enervate an already weakened Russia.
The US and its NATO allies are now firmly ranged against Russia in relation to Ukraine, and, concurrently, the US-China bilateral tension remains intractable — for now. For India, two strands impact its military security. The first is the reliability of Moscow as the primary supplier of conventional military inventory for the Indian armed forces, even while navigating the paradox that Russia has been a valuable and irreplaceable partner in enhancing Delhi’s strategic capabilities — viz underwater nuclear propulsion, joint missile production et al.
India’s security challenges emanating from an assertive and belligerent Beijing were on display in the 2020 Galwan ‘scuffle’ to the more recent Arunachal Pradesh transgression by PLA troops. This pattern is likely to simmer for the near future in the absence of a sustained political effort to arrive at a modus vivendi in a six-decade-old conflict over contested territoriality.
The regional grid is posing its distinctive security challenges. The genesis of this goes back to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the concomitant rise of Islamic religious militancy and terrorism. The nurturing of Taliban ideology in the Pakistan-Afghanistan tribal belt in the 1990s, and the subsequent emergence of Taliban factions in Afghanistan (currently in power in Kabul) and the Pakistani variant (TTP) has acquired disturbing malignancy for Rawalpindi — the GHQ of the Pakistan army.
Over the last few months, the TTP has scaled up its attacks on the Pakistani army and Islamabad was subjected to a terrorist attack — the first since 2014. The TTP enjoys a degree of tacit support from the Taliban-led regime in Kabul and the New Year began with a very bitter exchange of words between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Threats by Pakistan that it would bomb TTP hideouts in Afghanistan were angrily rejected by the Taliban and a January 2 tweet sums up the state of the Pak-Afghan estrangement. Taliban spokesman Ahmad Yasir tweeted in response to the Pakistan threat: ‘This is Afghanistan, the graveyard of empires. Never think of a military attack on us, or else you may end up with the embarrassing repeat of the (post-1971 Bangladesh War) agreement with India.’
The irony for the Pakistan ISI is having to deal with an entity it created — the proverbial case of a beneficiary ‘biting the hand that feeds’ — and there is a sense of déjà vu about the TTP becoming the kind of domestic threat that it became in 2008. This was the phase whose most bloody manifestation was the 2014 terror attack on Army Public School in Peshawar.
In that period, the then US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, warned Pakistan (December 2011) that ‘you can’t keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbours. Eventually those snakes are going to turn on whoever has them in the backyard.’
For Delhi, the possibility that these terrorist ‘snakes’ will be encouraged to target Indian assets remains a perennial security challenge and the recent uptick in violence in Jammu and Kashmir is illustrative of what lies ahead. The close cooperation between China and Pakistan and the contradictory, yet close, US-Pakistan relationship apropos of Afghanistan and terrorism will pose a complex challenge for Delhi — even as it prioritises the stewardship of the G20 in 2023.
The challenges to India’s national security are likely to become more virulent in 2023, but the higher defence management responses do not appear to have the kind of clarity and urgency that they merit — if the deliberations in Parliament are any indication. Earnest rhetoric is no substitute for substantive and sustained investment in enhancing composite military capability and professional political acumen.
China’s new military leadership appointments and screening of a video of the Galwan clashes at the 20th Party Congress suggest that Xi has decided on applying sustained pressure against India over a protracted period. This includes aggressive military actions. At this time of test, the strange proposal by some for resumption of normal trade ties with China could prompt Beijing to assess that India doesn’t have the stamina to defend its sovereignty.
RELATIONS between India and China need to be carefully reviewed in the wake of the failed attempt by 300 Chinese soldiers to take possession of the 17,500-foot-high ridge line at Yangtse in Arunachal Pradesh’s Tawang sector on December 9, 2022. To the credit of India’s security establishment and the Army, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) movements were detected early, enabling Indian troops to quickly and forcefully repel the unusually large Chinese patrol.
China’s action at Yangtse follows up the continuing intrusion in eastern Ladakh. It makes clear that there will be more such attempts along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). More importantly, it shows that Beijing no longer cares to window dress its negative attitude towards India.
On the opening day of the 20th Party Congress itself, a video of the clashes at Galwan was screened to ensure a negative portrayal of India. India also figured indirectly in the appointments of China’s new military leadership. Each of the military leaders appointed to China’s new Central Military Commission (CMC) has been handpicked and has close ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Their appointment reveals Xi’s absolute grip on the PLA. It also shows the Chinese leadership’s continuing emphasis on the technology enhancement of the PLA.
At least four of the Generals in the seven-member CMC, China’s highest military organisation chaired by Xi, have served in the Western Theatre Command and are familiar with the topography and matters concerning the Line of Actual Control (LAC), confirming that China intends to pay attention to its 4,057-km border with India. This is in addition to China’s focus on Taiwan
The 20th Party Congress mandated the PLA to complete its modernisation and become a world-class fighting force by 2027 — the PLA’s centenary year. The retention of 72-year-old General Zhang Youxia well beyond the retirement age and induction of General Li Shangfu to the CMC are particularly relevant for the technology upgrade of the PLA.
General Zhang, like Xi, is a ‘princeling’ and trusted by him. He is the only member of the CMC with battle experience. He is familiar with military technology having served as Director of the PLA’s general equipment department from 2012-2017. Zhang has been part of all major decision-making in the PLA consequent to Xi’s appointment as Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee general secretary and CMC chairman in October 2012.
General Li, also a ‘princeling’, is China’s new Minister of National Defence. Prior to this assignment, he was the Director of the CMC equipment development department, where he succeeded General Zhang. He has a background in aerospace engineering and served many years in the PLA Second Artillery, later renamed as the PLA Rocket Force. He has experience of dealing with new weaponry and equipment and as Defence Minister will give impetus to defence R&D and manufacture of new weaponry.
The four members continuing in the new CMC are Chinese President Xi, General Zhang Youxia, who now becomes the senior CMC vice-chairman, Admiral Miao Hua and General Zhang Shengmin. The latter three will play an important role in achieving the targets and goals set by Xi for the PLA at the previous two Party Congresses in 2012 and 2017. They have the advantage of proximity to Xi and continuity in decision-making. A noticeable change is that the present CMC, unlike the previous, comprises only officers of the PLA (Ground Forces). Though Miao Hua acquired the rank of Admiral after being transferred to the PLA Navy in 2014, he spent most of his service in the Ground Forces.
The three new appointees to the CMC are General He Weidong, General Li Shangfu and General Liu Zhenli. General He Weidong, former Commander of the Western Theatre Command (Ground Forces) and Commander of the Eastern Theatre Command, was ‘helicoptered’ into the CMC as a vice-chairman without prior experience as a member. He was simultaneously inducted into the Politburo. He has close ties with Xi. He Weidong is known for his aggressive military ideas and assertive moves against adversaries. Generals Zhang Shengmin and Miao Hua have also served in the Western Theatre Command and are familiar with the Sino-Indian border situation. Both have a close association with Xi.
General Liu Zhenli, Director of the CMC joint staff department and former Commander of the PLA, is one of the youngest Generals in the PLA. Early in his career, Gen Liu Zhenli participated in the Sino-Vietnam border operations. Liu Zhenli’s tenure as Chief of Staff of the Beijing Military Region (December 2009-February 2012) overlapped with Xi’s tenures as president of the Central Party School (2007-2012) in Beijing and later as vice-president of the PRC (2008- 2013). Liu Zhenli would have interacted closely with Xi during this period especially as Commanders of the Beijing Military Region are trusted by the CCP CC general secretary and handpicked for their loyalty
These appointments and screening of the video at the 20th Party Congress, among other indicators, strongly suggest that Xi has decided on applying sustained pressure against India over a protracted period. This includes aggressive military actions. At this time of test, the strange proposal by some for the resumption of normal trade ties with China could prompt Beijing to assess that India doesn’t have the stamina to defend its sovereignty. India’s response will be crucial for the bilateral relationship. India needs to double down on its policies as unless China begins to feel the cost of its misadventure, Beijing will put India under still greater pressure.
The prolonged standoff in Ladakh has witnessed major buildup of infrastructure along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) by China in the form of bridges, roads and airfields; the obvious objective is to enable quick movement of troops and equipment, overcoming the constraints posed by the difficult terrain. It’s a huge challenge for India to keep pace with the neighbour, even as the border stalemate has continued despite 17 rounds of Corps Commander-level talks, the most recent of which was held on December 20 last year. The December 9 incident in the Yangtse area of Arunachal Pradesh’s Tawang sector, where Indian troops thwarted a bid by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to unilaterally change the status quo, reaffirmed the need for India to be more vigilant and battle-ready along the LAC.
In this backdrop, it is commendable that the Ministry of Defence has decided to upgrade the strategic Nyoma airfield in eastern Ladakh into a full-fledged fighter jet base with allied infrastructure. The upgrade is estimated to cost Rs 214 crore and will be completed in a couple of years. The presence of Chinese airfields along the LAC gives India a good reason to augment its operational preparedness. The approval granted to the Rangrik airfield, which will come up in Himachal Pradesh’s Spiti valley, near Chepzi (Tibet), is also in line with the strategy to ensure smoother conduct of air force activities.
The importance of air power expansion cannot be overestimated, especially when the opponent has a knack for indulging in misadventures. Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari recently red-flagged ‘critical deficiencies’ being faced by the Indian Air Force (IAF), including the shortage of fighter squadrons and force multipliers. Providing adequate equipment and infrastructure to the IAF personnel will help them perform surveillance and reconnaissance exercises with more confidence. Even as the airfields will be constructed or upgraded in due course, it is a matter of concern that the strategically significant Sela tunnel project in Arunachal has been inordinately delayed. It is now expected to be completed by April after having missed two deadlines. Such delay can impede India’s efforts to keep the Chinese on their toes.
Jammu, January 5
The police organised a camp to inspect the weapons of the Village Defence Committees’ (VDCs) members on Thursday. At least 72 VDC members from Dhangri and neighboring villages came to the government higher secondary school in the area. Besides repairing the old weapons, police officials handed over new guns to some of the VDC members. “Old ammunition was also replaced. The VDC members without guns will soon get new firearms,” said a police official who was present in the village.
Meanwhile, CRPF companies have also started arriving in villages having significant Hindu population in Rajouri and Poonch.
After the recent terror strikes that killed six in Dhangri, villagers of nearby areas had demanded rejuvenation of the VDCs. Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha had asked DGP Dilbag Singh to re-strengthen the VDCs on immediate basis.
Kuldeep Kumar, ex serviceman and VDC member, said the police had promised that weapons would be provided to the retired personnel from the Army, the CRPF and the BSF. “The time has come that VDCs are strengthened so that we can take on terrorists whenever required. Ex-servicemen should be provided automatic weapons as terrorists use AK-47 rifles,” he said.
Former personnel of the armed forces have provided details of their service to the police which will be verified before issuing weapons.
Ashok Sharma, another VDC member, said police officials serviced .303 rifles and gave 100 rounds of bullets to each member. “In case of an attack by terrorists, we should have enough ammunition as the police and the Army take time to reach the spot. As many automatic weapons as possible should be provided to the VDC members,” Sharma added.
It is expected that CRPF and police personnel will remain deployed in villages having minority population till Republic Day.
Mohammad Amin Butt, alias Khubaib, was designated as a terrorist by the Union Ministry of Home on Thursday, four days after the attack at Dhangri village in Rajouri district.
Arjun Sharma
Jammu, January 6
Even as security agencies have no clue about the two terrorists involved in the recent killing of six persons in Rajouri, the name of a Pakistan-based terrorist, Mohammad Amin Butt, alias Khubaib (41), who is instrumental in attempts to revive terrorism in the Jammu division over the past one year, has surfaced.
Khubaib was designated as a terrorist by the Union Ministry of Home on Thursday, four days after the attack at Dhangri village in Rajouri.
Military intelligence sources said security forces were already suspicious that Khubaib might have coordinated the Rajouri attack, as he has been trying to revive terrorism in the Jammu division. “He has not only been instrumental in many IED blasts in Jammu, but was also involved in dropping arms and IEDs from drones, especially in Kathua, Samba and Jammu district, along the International Border (IB),” said the sources, adding it was “very much” likely that Khubaib coordinated the Rajouri attack.
Khubaib’s name has surfaced in many attacks, including the Udhampur IED blasts in two buses on September 28. The police had said that he was in touch with a local terrorist through social media and had ordered him to plant explosives in these buses. There were no casualties in the attack.
Army’s Rashtriya Rifles (RR) and the CRPF had in June last year busted a module run by Khubaib in Doda district by arresting an overground worker (OGW). The OGW had kept IEDs at his home that were supposed to be used in terror activities.
A sticky bomb blast in March last year at Slathia Chowk in Udhampur killed one persons and injured many others.
In what could be a coincidence, the Doda police had on December 17 last year attached the property of another Pakistan-based terrorist, Abdul Rashid, alias Jehangir, who is the one who motivated Khubaib to join armed insurgency in the late 1990s. Rashid had gone to Pakistan-occupied areas of J&K in 1993 where he was imparted arms training. He returned to his hometown Doda and was the one who motivated many youths of the area, including Khubaib. It is believed that both Khubaib and Rashid live together in a Pakistan-occupied area of J&K.
According to military intelligence, Khubaib was born in 1981 in Doda. He joined the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and went to Pakistan for training in 1997 when he was 16.
Rajouri Senior Superintendent of Police Mohammad Aslam said the police and other security forces were carrying out cordon and search operations to neutralise the culprits involved in the attack. “We have also been giving weapon training to the village defence committees,” he said.
He said villages along the Line of Control in the district were being monitored by and patrolling was being conducted in these areas.
Dehradun, January 6
A variety of factors both anthropogenic and natural have led to the subsidence of Joshimath, director of the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology Kalachand Sain said on Friday.
The factors are not recent, they have built up over a long period of time, he said.
“The three principal factors are Joshimath’s vulnerable foundations as it was developed on the debris of a landslide triggered by an earthquake more than a century ago, its location in seismic zone V which is more prone to earthquakes besides gradual weathering and water percolation which reduce the cohesive strength of the rocks over time,” Sain told PTI.
“Atkins had first written about Joshimath’s location on landslide debris in the Himalayan Gazetteer in 1886. Even the Mishra Committee in its report in 1976 had written about its location on an old subsidence zone,” he said.
The going down of the Himalayan rivers and heavy rainfall which is characteristic of the area beside the flashfloods in Rishiganga and Dhauliganga rivers last year may also have worsened the situation, he said.
As Joshimath is the gateway to Badrinath, Hemkund Sahib and skiing destination Auli haphazard construction activities have been going on in the area for a long time without thinking about the pressure the town is capable of coping with, he said, adding this may also have led to cracks appearing in the houses there.
“Hotels and restaurants have mushroomed everywhere. The pressure of population and the size of the crowd of tourists has also increased manifold,” he said.
“Many houses in the town are unlikely to survive and people living in them must be shifted to safe locations as life is precious,” he said.
After the evacuation of people in affected areas to safety, microzonation of the town, replanning of its drainage system and rainwater outlets besides assessment of rock strength among others should be undertaken, Sai suggested.
