India’s has managed to maintain its position in the top five military powers in the world on the Global Firepower List 2017 in comparison to Pakistan, which only managed to break in the top 15 last year. India was trailed by major military powers like France, the UK, Japan, Turkey, Germany and to complete the top 10.

India’s military is placed fourth on a global index that has ranked 133 countries on the basis of their global military prowess, trailing behind only the US, Russia and China in that order. India’s western neighbour Pakistan ranks 13 on the Global Firepower (GFP) list 2017.

India has managed to maintain its position among the top five military powers in the world on the GFP list while Pakistan could break in the top 15 only last year. Major military powers, France, the UK, Japan, Turkey and Germany, complete the top 10.

Meanwhile, China also crept up behind Russia and is poised to take the second place soon. It has more aircraft and naval ships than Russia but is hugely outnumbered in total tanks in service.

The rankings for the index are reached after judging the countries on 50 parameters, including military resources, natural resources, industry and geographical features and available manpower. India and China being placed higher on the index are helped to a great degree with the sizeable number of armed forces personnel with the respective countries.

According to GFP’s assessment, India leads China in terms of total armed personnel with India’s 4,207,250 personnel against China’s 3,712,500. China, however, leads in terms of active personnel with 2,260,000 troops compared to India’s 1,362,500. India’s reserve components were assessed to be 2,844,750 while China trailed with 1,452,500.

The index didn’t count nuclear stockpiles for the ranking but gave points for nuclear capability, whether recognised or suspected. Another aspect for consideration was the defence budget allocation with China allocating over three times the amount India set aside for its military.

When compared with Pakistan, India led the way on all aspects except the number of attack helicopters, self-propelled artillery and waterway coverage.

On their assessment methodology, Global Firepower said in a statement: “Our formula allows smaller, though more technologically-advanced, nations to compete with larger, lesser-developed ones. Modifiers (in the form of bonuses and penalties) are added to further refine the list.”

JCO Madan Lal Choudhary’s inconsolable wife Charnjeet Kour and other family members in Kathua on Sunday. She too received splinter injuries during the terror attack. Inderjeet Singh

Arteev Sharma

Tribune News Service

JAMMU, FEBRUARY 11

The operation to flush out Jaish terrorists from the Sunjuwan military base here stretched into the second day on Sunday, with the number of casualties rising to six as Army commandos recovered the bodies of another Junior Commissioned Officer, two soldiers and a civilian during sanitisation of residential quarters. All four were killed by the terrorists in the initial stage yesterday, the Army said. Editorial: Army camp attacked
The six deceased were identified as Subedar Madan Lal Choudhary from Kathua, Subedar Mohd Ashraf Mir from Kupwara, Havildar Hahibullah Qurashi from Kupwara, Naik Manzoor Ahmed from Qazigund, Lance Naik Mohd Iqbal from Pulwama and his father. (Follow The Tribune on Facebook; and Twitter @thetribunechd)The Army said three heavily-armed terrorists, who managed to enter the military base in the wee hours of Saturday, had been killed. The state government had initially said four to five terrorists had stormed the camp. Unconfirmed reports suggested that two more terrorists had been eliminated. While a team of the National Investigation Agency also reached the Army camp, sources said Army Chief General Bipin Rawat and Western Army Command chief Lt  Gen Surinder Singh took an aerial survey of the operation.Meanwhile, a soldier, Gunner Kishore Kumar Munna of Chautham in Bihar, who was injured in ceasefire violation in Poonch on February 4, succumbed to his injuries today.

In recent weeks, some important events outline just how the Deep State’s strategy has been panning.

Recent incidents of stone-throwing and intimidation of the Army in Kashmir should not have surprised keen observers who are aware of the dynamics of this and other proxy conflicts. Pakistan won’t allow the stabilisation process in Kashmir to persist because turbulence there reflects the success of its core strategy. This situation has been seen in the past with varying dynamics, in 1999, 2006-07, 2011-12 and somewhat in 2015 too. However, each time Pakistan’s Deep State and the separatists were able to turn the tables with triggers which helped to recreate turbulence.

This really means India’s strategy has been effective in countering the military domain of proxy war, but failed to take that success to eventual peace. In conflict theory terms, this means that conflict stabilisation has been largely successful but conflict termination has fallen prey to the machinations of the Deep State and the separatists.

In recent weeks, some important events outline just how the Deep State’s strategy has been panning. Being aware that domination by the security forces is something India always seeks and focuses upon before any other efforts, the Deep State has focused on the social and psychological factors to enhance alienation, with women and youth the key entities. The use of mosques to run the alienation agenda is rampant with vigilantism on the rise immediately after Burhan Wani’s death in 2016. With religion, and particularly Islamic radicalism, becoming a worldwide phenomenon, especially since the advent of Islamic State (Daesh), the Islamic factor has been frequently used to show Kashmiri Muslims how they need to be outside the ambit of India’s pluralist tradition and support their faith. The frequent use of clarion calls from mosques and social media messaging to impress flash mobs to encounter sites has been a huge facilitator towards alienation. These actions ensure that after or during each such encounter, one or
two young Kashmiris die in attempting to intimidate the forces. That is sufficient fodder with a follow-up by the media and shrill demands by rabble-rousers, that helps create further alienation. With the security forces having effectively synced their operations and created better standard operating procedures the feasibility of success of vigilantes and overground workers is slowly on the wane.

The attempt to directly target the 11-vehicle convoy of 10 Garhwal Rifles near Shopian, in south Kashmir, on January 27 was a change in tactics, to give confrontation a different colour. The strategy is obviously being drafted across the LoC by observers who are keeping a keen eye on developments in the Valley. They are fully aware that an effective transition by J&K state, and therefore India, from conflict stabilisation to conflict termination will spell the death knell of the entire Deep State strategy. With dwindling strength of terrorists and arms, ammunition and other wherewithal, the ability to conduct terrorist operations has been marginalised. With low snow levels, a surge in infiltration can be expected to regain flexibility in operations. Pending that, time is slipping away. Ways and means to draw the forces, particularly the Army, into negative situations where civilian deaths can substantially increase, is the crying need for trans-LoC planners. That will also raise demands to reduce the Army’s presence so that its domination is compromised. Calls for abrogation of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act will get more weight from the political Opposition, and lead to embarrassment for the state government. The issue of the FIR against the Army, with much disinformation about charges against the officer of 10 Garhwal Rifles, is a typical aspect of information warfare, with doubts sowed and passions raised across India, leading to greater alienation. In such circumstances, a single spokesman and a single statement outlining the government’s position would have effectively quelled all rumours. It’s a lesson repeatedly learnt by the establishment, but never implemented. It only substantiates the need for a “Unified Command” approach, in which a spokesman speaks jointly on behalf of the state government, the Centre and the Army. The scope for controversy will lessen, but all will need to seek ways of remaining on the same page in all future contingencies.

In the light of all this, J&K chief minister Mehbooba Mufti’s bold and candid speech in the Assembly is indeed a brave one. In fact, she flagged almost every relevant issue in her 46-minute intervention. It takes courageous prudence on a politician’s part to admit and even advise the people that if they wish to see the back of AFSPA, they will have to stop their support to violent activities. The logic is simple. The Army’s largescale presence is to prevent a resurgence of violence. If violence drops substantially and for a sustained period, only then can the public’s demand for AFSPA’s removal or dilution be considered. The CM, while denouncing the misuse of mosques for vigilantism and condemning the separatist calls for bandhs, also coined a fine slogan in “Connectivity, Productivity and Employability”. The refreshing aspect of this slogan is the obvious focus on governance, but the real test is how effective this is going to be in transforming the daily lives of people in Kashmir. It has always been my abiding belief that it’s the psychological connect between the three regions of J&K which must receive the state government’s focus. The key is Jammu, which has its legitimate aspirations that cannot be ignored, and it’s through it that Kashmir must connect to rest of India. This realisation is emerging, but still insufficiently. It needs a strategic political mind to peg this to our thinking.

The need of the hour is to ensure that the Deep State’s intent of creating turbulence through diverse means is countered and a combined approach is projected. The Army’s strong presence, along with the CRPF and J&K police, is vital, and 2018 will be a crucially testing year due to the unpredictability of the Sino-Pakistani collusion on the borders and within. But the governance domain must receive the fullest support of all agencies. Stability through military domination, effective governance and increased intra-state connect must form the cornerstone of India’s strategy through 2018.

Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh has solemnly assured us that the deaths of Captain Kundu and his three troopers in Pakistani firing on Sunday will be duly avenged. That he offered the placebo from a poll-bound Tripura speaks of the BJP’s approach of making politically palatable a diplomatic-political failure to stabilise Kashmir and the border. The fallen soldiers, the shut schools and maimed civilians become part of an anti-Pakistan rhetoric that resonates well with the Hindutva constituency during elections. It was little surprise that Rajnath Singh’s colourful broadside against Pakistan — kisi ne maa ka doodh nahi piya jo Kashmir ko alag kar sake — were picked up by junior ministers and assorted Hindutva spear-carriers. Doubtless, Pakistan makes similar assertions for its domestic audience when its soldiers fall to bullets in what has been an unrelenting tit-for-tat for over three years. After so many deaths on the border, the government needs to be asked, especially after the surgical strikes failed to temper the Pakistanis, about the end game behind this approach. The people need to be told whether this daily dose of attrition has an expiry date. Since neither side has or will ever achieve a decisive military edge over the other on the border, both governments are content with framing the recurring casualties in a grander nationalist vision where these small pains must be endured for an undefined but bright future. The strategy of a “matching response” appears deceptively low-risk at face value. Yet, there is no guarantee that cross-border incidents may get degenerated to a full-blown military entanglement. Clearly, both sides have not done enough to create a less aggressive space for political disagreement that then gets reflected in military behaviour. The only tangible accrual from Modi government’s policy of hostilities on border has been to ensure a nationalist high ground for the BJP. But the law of diminishing returns may be setting in. The Pakistanis seem to be on familiar turf with the policy of “matching response”, happily exchanging bullet for bullet and sacrificing a life for a life. And Kashmir remains still far removed from normalcy.

NIA claimed the students visas were recommended to the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi by various Hurriyat leaders, including hardline Hurriyat leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani.

New Delhi, February 3Pakistan is offering scholarships to Kashmiri students to prepare a generation, which will be inclined towards it and most of the youth on student visa in the neighbouring country were relatives of militants, the National Investigation Agency said in its chargesheet in the terror funding case.”During the course of investigation, it was ascertained that students who were proceeding to Pakistan on student visas were either relatives of ex-militants or relatives of families of active militants who had indulged in various anti-national activities and had migrated to Pakistan or they were known to Hurriyat leaders,” it said.The probe agency also claimed that their visa applications were recommended to the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi by various Hurriyat leaders, including hardline Hurriyat leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani.The chargesheet filed in a court here on January 18 revealed that militants who fled to Pakistan had pursued their admission matters with the help of Hurriyat leaders based in Pakistan and Pakistan administered Kashmir.The NIA said that scholarships are offered for MBBS and engineering seats under various schemes of the Pakistan government.”This shows a triangular nexus wherein the terrorists, the Hurriyat and the Pakistan establishment are the three vertices and they are ostensibly patronising the Kashmir students in order to prepare a generation of doctors and technocrats in Kashmir who will have leanings towards Pakistan,” the NIA said in the chargesheet, a copy of which is in the possession of IANS.NIA seized a document from the house of Nayeem Khan wherein he recommends a student for admission in a “standard medical college” in Pakistan because “her family has remained committed to the freedom struggle through thick and thin”.Similarly, a document seized from the house of Shahid-Ul-Islam clearly shows that the Hurriyat leaders were sending recommendation to the Pakistan High Commission for the issuance of visa, it said.The chargesheet has named Pakistan-based terrorist leaders Hafiz Saeed and Syed Salahuddin, seven arrested Kashmiri separatist leaders and three others in the case.The Hurriyat leaders are Aftab Hilali alias Shahid-ul-Islam, Ayaz Akbar Khandey, Farooq Ahmad Dar alias Bitta Karate, Nayeem Khan, Altaf Ahmad Shah, Raja Mehrajuddin Kalwal and Bashir Ahmad Bhat alias Peer Saifullah.Shah is the son-in-law of Geelani who is a strong votary of Jammu and Kashmir’s merger with Pakistan. Hilali is a close aide of moderate Hurriyat leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq.The NIA has alleged that the separatists, arrested on July 24 last year, conspired with Saeed and Salahuddin to wage war against India and secede Jammu and Kashmir from India. All of them have been booked under stringent anti-terror laws.The NIA also chargesheeted businessman Zahoor Ahmad Watali and two alleged stone pelters — Kamran and Javed Ahmed Bhat.Watali has been associated with the LoC trade and has worked as the president of the LoC Traders’ Association in the past.

IANS

It is indeed ironical that in a week where J&K has seen FIR filed against Major Aditya and his unit for firing in self-defense, today, i.e 31 January, falls the birth anniversary of India’s first PVC Major Somnath Sharma. Major Somnath gave up his life while defending the same Kashmir from Pakistani rapists and ravagers, in short, the Pakistan Army which had attacked Kashmir on 22 October 1947 and was on the doors of Srinagar. Jinnah and his army had taken advantage of Maharaja Hari Singh’s clever by half attempt to make Kashmir ‘Switzerland of the East’ and made a vicious attempt to grab the state by force. Major Somnath had landed with his Kumaonis while his arm was still in plaster courtesy a hockey playing injury. It was in Budgam where his company took on the Pakistani army despite being outnumbered 7:1. Major Somnath and his company fought like lions with exemplary leadership from him with even the plaster not being hindrance to bravery. The Kumaonis inflicted heavy casualties on the enemy notwithstanding the losses they themselves suffered. Major Somnath was grievously injured as a mortar shell fell on their ammunition storage spot. His last message; “The enemy are only 50 yards from us. We are heavily outnumbered. We are under devastating fire. I shall not withdraw an inch but will fight to the last man and last round”, has passed on to military folklore. The bravery displayed by Major Somnath and his company saved Srinagar airport from falling into the hands of Pakistanis and kept India’s lifeline into the state, functional. That we failed to take back PoK in 1947-48 was political failure for which the country is still paying a heavy price. That the same Kashmiris whom the army saved from Pakistani savages have been brainwashed into throwing stones at their protectors and filing FIR’s show that religion has been abused to spread hatred. But all this does not in anyway lessen the sacrifice made by Major Somnath Sharma and it is our duty to ensure that these sacrifices do not go in vain.

Major Somnath Sharma – First Param Vir Chakra Awardee

Signalman Chandan Kumar Rai

Jammu, January 21

Signalman Chandan Kumar Rai, who was critically injured during the ceasefire violation in Mendhar sector of the Line of Control (LoC) on Saturday, succumbed to his injuries at the military hospital last night. One civilian was today killed and another injured when Pakistani troops resorted to heavy shelling along the International Border (IB) and the LoC in Jammu and Poonch districts.(Follow The Tribune on Facebook; and Twitter @thetribunechd)”Two brothers were injured when shells hit their house in Kanachak-Pragwal sector along the IB in Jammu district tonight. One of them, Gopal, later succumbed to his injuries and the other is in hospital,” a senior police official said.The death toll in the intense shelling by Pakistan troops over the past four days has now risen to 12  — three soldiers, two BSF personnel and seven civilians.Pakistani troops violated ceasefire for the fourth consecutive day today, resorting to heavy shelling along the LoC in Noushera, Rajouri and Akhnoor sectors of J&K. While Rajouri DC Shahid Iqbal Choudhary said Pakistan resumed heavy shelling in Bhawani, Karali, Said, Numb and Sher Makri areas this evening, a BSF spokesman said firing from across the border stopped in Samba and Kathua districts in the afternoon, but intermittently went on in some areas of Jammu district.In Jammu district, over 1.27 lakh people in 81 villages have been affected by the border shelling and 41,000 moved to safer places. In the shelling that started on January 18, mostly Arnia, RS Pura and Suchetgarh areas were affected. On January 19, the shelling spread to Samba and Kathua districts. The following day, Marh area also witnessed heavy shelling, said official sources. — TNS

‘Humbled’ China may go for ‘salami slicing’ of disputed areas

Keep the peace: Confrontation shouldn’t be met with jingoism; a sure recipe for a flareup.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (retd)WITH the reported presence through winter of enhanced strength of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China opposite Doklam, with improved operational and logistics infrastructure, is a Chinese military standoff or more with India almost a surety in 2018? The end of the 72-day standoff over Doklam was hailed as pragmatic; an example of political maturity and military astuteness by all. That was the need of the hour for China. It was about to conduct its five-yearly signature political event, the Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) from October 18, 2017. Xi Jinping’s image would not be very high if China was seen to be in the middle of an ugly border spat with a neighbour, which could turn violent with an innocuous trigger. It was also hosting the BRICS Summit at Xiamen, and, presumably, could not be seen to be in an armed border standoff with one of the members. If China did actually pull back from the standoff, albeit reluctantly and without clarity and with those events now over, what holds it back from pressing its claims in the next season and instigating a similar situation? The Army Chief, Gen Bipin Rawat, to his credit, did mention that we have to be prepared for more such standoffs with China, which could resort to “salami slicing” and muscle flexing by it to nibble away at areas claimed by it and under dispute with India.The 19th CPC was about bigger things. It set the tone for China’s future superpower status by 2050 and capability to win wars. Doklam was just an aberration, but for Jinping’s personal ego and that of the PLA, it was enough of a setback, temporarily papered over. India won fulsome praise for its ability not to back down in the face of severe intimidation. This model is being examined by various nations in East and South East Asia, perhaps much to the embarrassment of the PLA and Xi himself. So, is China likely to be in a hurry to retrieve lost prestige from the perceived slight or remain pragmatic and patient? It needs to be remembered that in the leadership provided by Xi in the last five years and more, diplomacy and economic leveraging have played a major role. Yet the restructuring of the military and Xi’s ability to push new strategy has dominated the scene. In its stance towards the disputes in the South China Sea and with Japan in East Asia, China has continued to follow the “Three Warfares” principles adopted in 2003. These relate to intense psychological operations, media manipulation and legal warfare designed to manipulate perception of target audiences on claims put forth by China. The manifestation of this, in practice, really commenced more robustly under Xi although “war under informationised conditions” was a strategy first mooted in the early ’90s. This is the broad strategy it has played out in Ladakh over the last seven to eight years with “walk in operations” aimed to see the capitulation of Indian leadership under persistent claims pressed through military pressure, albeit without firing a shot.  It could always have triggered an armed standoff and hoped to secure its claim lines under imposed robust duress on the Indian forces. Yet, China has long been the exponent of Sun Tzu’s concept of winning wars without fighting; “to subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill”, wrote Sun Tzu, thus giving Chinese military thought a supposed pearl. In Xi’s assumed slight due to Doklam there exists the greatest potential of employing Sun Tzu’s age-old philosophy juxtaposed with the modern concept of “Three Warfares”. This should rest some minds which assume war fighting as the only realm of Chinese strategy. Xi should, and probably will, not be in any hurry to restore his pride after the slight at Doklam because he has gained enough stature after the 19th Congress of the CPC. The enhanced military presence opposite Doklam is a part of the three warfares strategy. However, winning without going to war in the context of the Doklam involves two things. First is to build the disputed road unhindered on the territory claimed by it, but currently technically under Bhutan’s control; second, to establish a closer diplomatic relationship with Bhutan as a breakthrough and wean it away from Indian “stranglehold”, much as Nepal has been weaned away.For India, it will be a win-win if it can continue to retain Bhutan’s loyalty and thereby play up the Indo-Bhutan Friendship Treaty of 2007 for mutual consultation and prevention of use of each other’s territory for inimical purposes. Thus in Bhutan lies the key and the focal point. If China really wishes to follow the wisdom of its ancient sage with the technology of the modern times, it will focus on Bhutan, while continually intimidating India through low-level military standoff, but high-energy media and psychological war with persistence on claims to keep the legal pressure at a high, almost akin to the South China Sea dispute. Military brinkmanship will, no doubt, form a part of it, but the area where China is likely to be more cautious and probably review its strategy is in the field of media manipulation. Its information strategy in 2017 backfired as state mouthpieces, The Global Times and People’s Daily just could not make that difference. In a ham-handed show of information warfare, China failed to intimidate India, placate Bhutan or win support internationally. That is a sphere it will now concentrate upon, although it is an area much more difficult to convert to advantage. Thus while keeping our powder dry,  which must anyway be a part of considered prudence, it is the sphere of information warfare and local regional diplomacy in which India must prepare itself much better. The feasibility of China displaying a trailer of its cyber capability focused on a sphere of Indian military or non-military activity also remains a reality for which India must prepare itself. 2018 may well be the year when threats of war fighting may be overtaken by threats of cyber and information warfare. The last reminder: Bhutan will remain the key to the standoff and the retention by India of the current relationship will be the decisive factor. The last time, Indian strategic thinking hit the bull. If the basics are right it will do so again. The writer is former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps