Sanjha Morcha

What’s New

Click the heading to open detailed news

Current Events :

web counter

Print Media Reproduced Defence Related News

ARTICLE 51A – FUNDAMENTAL DUTIES NOT INCLUDED IN DEFENCE SERVICES RERULATIONS (DSR) & CHAPTER X CORRUPTED TO ILLAGALLY FORCE POSTAL BALLOT ON SOLDIERS ON MILITARY DUTY IN INDIA INCLUDING J&K.

PETITION.

No PG / 05/2017                                      Dated  21 Nov 2017.

 To,

            The Council of States,

            Rajya Sabha, Secretariat. (Petitioning Sabha)

            New Delhi Pin 110 001.

 ARTICLE 51A – FUNDAMENTAL DUTIES NOT INCLUDED IN DEFENCE SERVICES RERULATIONS (DSR) & CHAPTER X CORRUPTED TO ILLAGALLY FORCE POSTAL BALLOT ON SOLDIERS ON MILITARY DUTY IN INDIA INCLUDING J&K.

Sir,

            I, the petitioner Brigadier Hardip Singh Ghuman, Shaurya Chakra Retd, resident of # 1043 Sector 71, SAS Nagar, Punjab Pin 160071 (Tele – 0172- 2224636); President AIVCG, an apolitical & secular NGO; strive for excellence in all spheres of individual / collective activities, so that the Nation constantly rises to higher level of endeavour & achievement Article – 51A (Encl-1); omitted from DSR, despite request to RM, ignored.  

Sheweth

1.         India is a sovereign, secular, democratic republic of India. Apolitical & Secular Armed Forces (AFs) under oath of allegiance to the Constitution of India, responsible for protecting sovereignty & integrity of India, at any cost, placed at strategic places throughout India, as also to protect Law & Order; a State Subject – Article 35A, for which State Govt. compensates wages for that duration – ignorant of Fundamental Duties / RP Act since DSR Chapter X corrupted (Encl-2) – ‘a service voter is a voter with service qualification’ when ‘service qualification’ ceases on posting back to India.

2.         AFs posted in India, submit wrong declaration – Form No 3 for Postal Ballot; not objected by single service EC / MoD since it suits convenience of Politicians. AFs not granted NFU/OROP despite shortage of Officers – not in best National Interest.

3.         Govt. constituted KSB & RSB at each State, to settle grievances of AFs & Veterans since Welfare of AFs on concurrent list, who failed to take note of: –

(a)       Soldiers not enumerated at Duty Station, where subjected to all local taxes, when taxation without representation is tyranny & only those listed in Rolls have right to vote. Soldiers cannot leave Duty Station on holidays/festival days, known to PM / RM but not enumerated at Duty Station by single service EC, hence denied equal democratic right, to elect best Qualified, Secular Candidate, instead registered at hometown, overlooking chances of promoting regionalism in AFs, ignoring Article 51A – omitted from DSR.

(b)       After ‘Blue Star Operations in Punjab’, Soldiers illegally taxed upto 1994, till objected by Secy. RSB since not enumerated at Duty Station, when taxation without representation is tyranny.

(c)        Law & Order, a State Govt. subject & AFs deployed to maintain Law & Order, when State Govt. fails Article 35A; have same electoral right applicable to State Govt. Employs’. The J&K problem would have been resolved long back, if EC / MoD had impartially implemented RP Act / Rules / SC rulings & not corrupted Chapter X of DSR. BJP won 2014 elections based on apolitical & secular votes of AFs, except FM.

(d)       Previous RM/FM introduced E-voting, without clarifying E-voting is applicable to those posted abroad. EC & MoD also failed to clarify the same. Consequently Soldiers posted in Gujarat & HP again not enumerated at duty Station. MoD failed to evolve foolproof registration system for Soldiers at Duty Station after 2014 elections who are paid best wages possibly for bending law of the land suiting convenience of Politicians.

(e)       Right to be registered in Electoral Rolls is applicable to ‘ordinarily ordinarily’. DSR Chapter X if not corrupted (Encl-2), J&K problem would have been resolved long back.

(f)        Apolitical War Veterans brought the above anomaly to the notice of 3 Chiefs during 2004 (Gen VK Singh), without any outcome since DSR is corrupted. Due to selfless efforts of MP Rajeev Chandrasekhar to uphold election law; Soldiers voted at Duty Station – 2014 elections for the 1st time (Encl 3)

(g)       2017 EC again registered Soldiers posted in India & abroad, at their home town, with chances of promoting regionalism, overlooking 2014 elections. Service Qualification ceases on posting back to India, illegally forced on Soldiers posted in India / J&K where they sacrifice life maintaining Law & Order a State Subject including J&K.

4.         RM requested to amend DSR in line with SC rulings of 1971 & 2013 ignored due to which Solders on Military Duty in Gujarat & HP again registered at hometown. Need exists to create Multi Service EC & MoD in best National Interest.

5          Physical Fitness Officers. Minimum fitness standard mandatory for AFs Officers for which Officer Ration rations sanctioned at peace stations in best interest of ‘Combat Fitness’; withdrawn by RM/FM without fear of Electoral Loss, since E-postal Ballot illegally introduced for those posted in India/abroad, without objection from EC / 3 Chiefs, at the cost of risking National Sovereignty / Integration overlooking Article 51A.

6.         Law & Order a State Subject, but J&K Govt. took no notice of ‘Stone Pelting on Soldiers on Military Duty’ amounting to assault on sovereignty of our Nation, who protect State Govt. / Public Property when Civil Administration fails. If need be President Rule imposed & the State Police takes orders from AFs under AFSPA to prevent violence. Army Law permits trial of Civilians by Court Martial since Stone Pelting on Soldiers on Military Duty amounts to offence against ‘sovereignty of our Nation’ ignored.

7.         Meaning of Service Qualification. Naga Land – 1967 elections; 12 Assam Rifles under command Army, voted at Duty Station, to block entry of un-desirable elements – upheld by SC, AIR 1971 SC 2123. Based on corrupted Chapter X of DSR; AG issued SAO 16/S/72 that AFs entitled to vote through Postal Ballot, not objected by MoD / EC suiting convenience of Politicians. SC ruled, ‘service qualification’ cannot takeaway right to be registered at place of posting, if residing there ignored.

8.         Prayer. Lord Krishna said ‘if you are right don’t give-up’. No Nation can afford to have its Officers lacking physical fitness. Rations to Officers posted in Peace Stations, may please be restored without further delay in National Interest.

9.         Chapter X of DSR may please be amended in line with SC ruling of 1971 & 2013 i.e. right to be registered at place of posting cannot be taken away including J&K and Article 51A Fundamental Duties be added as a new Chapter.

10.       Multi Service EC consisting of AFs, IPS & IAS may be constituted since single service EC failed, not objected by single service MoD even after 2014. Foolproof registration system at duty station may be evolved & Regimental Centers be directed to register only those posted abroad for E-postal Ballot & Service Officers posted to MoD.

11.       Commission may be constituted for AFs / Veterans in place of KSB / RSB & Stone Pelting on Soldiers on ‘Military Duty’ – an offence against Sovereignty of our Nation; may be tried under Military Law in best National Interest to settle J&K problem.

12.       OROP & NFU may be settled since there is huge deficiency of Officer who function on more than one post.

 

 Yours faithfully,

Brig HS Ghuman, SC, War Veteran.

President AICVG NGO Registered.

Copy to:-

RM, MP Prem Singh Chandumajra, MLA Balbir Sing. Secy.RSB Punjab & KSB, Col of PROA & MROA, GOC-in-C West Comd. IEXSL & IEXSM.   

 


Navy’s red letter day by Cmdre Mukund Kunte (retd)

Navy’s red letter day
The INS Kalvari submarine. AFP

Cmdre Mukund Kunte (retd)

THE second INS Kalvari, a made-in-India diesel-electric submarine, was commissioned on December 14 in Mumbai’s Mazagon Dock by the Prime Minister with an invigorating speech, which is his style. For conventional submarines, the name of the game is “Sea Denial”, their primary role being interdiction of the enemy’s trade and energy routes, blocking its ports and attacking land targets with missiles. A few weeks ago, another entrant into the Navy was the stealth frigate INS Kiltan (the second) commissioned by the intrepid Defence Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman. It was a pleasure to see her perform in military style, standing strong and erect while climbing the steps to proceed on board. Incidentally, the first Kiltan commissioned in Vladivostok in 1969 was, like the first Kalvari, wholly built by the Soviets. And look at the change — the process of training, building and fitting out has become indigenous, which has been our quest to achieve a higher degree of self-reliance. It exemplifies our shift from a “buyer’s Navy to a builder’s Navy”.  It was in 1966 after she was elected Prime Minister that Indira Gandhi gave nod to the acquisition of four, followed by another four, submarines from the USSR, making it possible for us to decisively win the 1971 war. The decision to take a nuclear-powered submarine on loan in the 1980s was made to gain experience in nuclear propulsion at sea – but there was a spinoff, viz handling of a small reactor would give us an insight into operating such reactors for generating power for civilian use.As for a “Builder’s” Navy, Mrs Gandhi had inaugurated the submarine construction programme on May 6, 1984, also in the Mazagaon Docks. The PM garlanded and broke a coconut following this Sanskrit invocation by Mrs Suhasini Mulgaonker :“Shri Rashtren vruta jale vinihita 

rashtrasya rakshanvita

Deshapritikruta prashastrajanita

tantradnyata nirmita

Satputrairghatita varimjjanrata nauka adhombhasrutaah

Jeeyat bharatata sada prakatita

nausainya sampat bhruta.

(This project of submarine construction is of great honour to our country’s skill and excellence in technology and science. Long live our Navy and its able men).We observed Vijay Diwas on December 16 to mark the surrender of 93,000 Pakistani troops. In 1971, we had come into our own because our intrepid PM did not hesitate to approve Admiral Nanda’s innovative plan (it, in fact, surprised even the Russians) to carry out a missile attack on Karachi. In fact, that operation was by led by INS Kiltan and resulted in damaging/sinking of the destroyer Khaiber, mine-sweeper Muhafiz and MV Venus Challenger, which was carrying war material.The ‘Make in India’ slogan has now been fully honoured. It is unfortunate that an irresponsible ‘opposition’ continued to object to both HDW submarines and Bofors (shoot & scoot) guns. The latter went on to save our honour in the war in 1999 and, as for the submarines, we would have been in the export market today.


Remembering the braveheart Kin, admn pay tributes to PVC Flying Officer Nirmaljit Singh Sekhon

Ludhiana: Tributes were paid to Param Vir Chakra Flying Officer Nirmaljit Singh Sekhon on his martyrdom day at his memorial situated inside the Mini-Secretariat here on Thursday. The district administration organised a memorial meet in the memory of the brave Air Force officer. Deputy Commissioner Pradeep Agrawal, Air Commodore DV Khat, former Indian Air Force jawans paid tributes to the martyr. The DC said: “The officer laid down his life for the nation. We pay heartfelt tributes to the martyr. His bravery will be remembered throughout the life.”He was a pilot of a Gnat detachment based in Srinagar for the air defence of the Valley against Pakistani air attacks. On December 14, 1971, Srinagar airfield was attacked by Sabre aircraft. Flying Officer Sekhon was on duty. Nearly six enemy aircraft were overhead and they started bombing the airfield. In spite of the danger of attempting to take off during the attack, Sekhon took off and immediately engaged a pair of attacking Sabres. In the fight that ensued, he secured hits on one aircraft and set another on fire. —TNS

REMEMBERING VALOUR AND SACRIFICE


Indo-UK army exercise concludes

Indo-UK army exercise concludes
British High Commissioner Dominic Asquith interacts with a UK soldier during the joint exercise in Mahajan Field Range. Tribune Photo

Our Correspondent

Abohar, December 14

The “Exercise Ajeya Warriror-2017’’, the third in the series of joint exercises of the Indian and British armies culminated on Thursday at the Mahajan Field Firing Ranges near the Sriganganagar-Bikaner highway. The fortnight-long exercise had commenced on December 1.The closing ceremony was attended by observers and senior military dignitaries from both the armies. Sir Dominic Asquith KCMG, British High Commissioner in India and Major General Robert Harry Talbot Rice from the United Kingdom and Lieutenant General Ranbir Singh, General Officer Commanding, STRIKE 1, and Major General Rupinder Singh, General Officer Commanding, Cockerel Division, from the Indian Army were present on the occasion.Set in the backdrop of growing terrorist activities worldwide, the first and second editions of the exercise were conducted at Belgaum (India) and Westdown camp, Salisbury Plains Training Area, UK, in 2013 and 2015, respectively. Representatives of both the armies conveyed immense satisfaction over the learning content of the exercise and were hopeful of more such exchanges in the future.


‘Bureaucrats don’t like us, nor do we’

Ajay Banerjee

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, December 8

The Kashmir valley was saved in 1947 due to military action stemming from a strong advice given by a Subedar of the 1st Sikh battalion of the Indian Army to his officer.On realising that it was impossible to defend just the Srinagar airfield from the Pakistan army-backed armed raiders, the Subedar suggested to his boss Lt Col Dewan Ranjit Rai: “Sahib let’s go find the enemy rather than wait for them to arrive.”Punjab Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh, a noted historian, narrated this anecdote at a session on the first Indo-Pak war (1947-48) on the opening day of the Military Literature Festival here this morning.Col Rai heeded the advice and moved his troops towards Baramulla, some 34 miles north-west of Srinagar. That, Capt Amarinder said, changed the course of the fight. In all, 462 marauders were killed. In the meantime, the troops of the 1st Patiala moved up to Zoji La and held onto the pass for the six months, stopping the ingress of the raiders from the eastern flank. The two — 1st Sikh and 1st Patiala (now rechristened 15 Punjab) — secured a total of 27 gallantry awards among themselves, including 1 PVC, the highest war-time gallantry award.Capt Amarinder said on October 25, when VP Menon, the then secretary of states, led a delegation to Srinagar, “there was panic”.Dr Harish Khare, Editor-in-Chief of The Tribune Group of Newspapers, said: “Who did what to whom remains a matter of subjective interpretation even after 70 years. We have an Indian version, a Pakistan version and rather mischievous British version.”“Many questions remain unanswered. What was the role of British leadership? Could things be different had an Indian General been given command of the Army (a British was the commander then). Could there have been a better timing for accepting a ceasefire? Many of the present narratives flow from the mistakes we made, not made, or presumed to be made,” said Dr Khare.Lt Gen AK Mukherjee (retd) narrated how a company of 13 Field Regiment wore the uniform of 1st Sikh and when artillery guns arrived they reverted to being gunners (their original role). They fought a very decisive battle to save Uri.Brig IS Gakhal (retd), who is from the Sikh Regiment, narrated interesting anecdotes on role of the 1st Sikh. Brig MS Gill (retd) listed the surprise caused by tanks at Zoji La that led to the advance towards Drass and Kargil. Maj Gen Shivdev Singh (retd) suggested that the battles of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh could not be seen in isolation when studying the war.


Accoutrement Ceremony at IMA

Accoutrement Ceremony at IMA
Commandant of the IMA Lt Gen SK Jha awarding a Gentleman Cadet at the Accoutrement Ceremony. Tribune photo

Tribune News Service

Dehradun, December 3

The much awaited Accoutrement Ceremony (after the allotment of Arms and Services) for autumn term 2017 for the 141 Regular Course, 124 Technical Graduate Course and 25A University Entry Scheme took place at the Vikram Batra Mess in the Indian Military Academy today. The ceremony is held after the allotment of the arms and services two weeks ago. The ceremony was presided over by the Commandant Indian Military Academy Lt Gen SK Jha and the senior veterans of each Arm and Service. Various trophies and medals awarded during the ceremony to the Gentlemen Cadets standing first or second in the Order of Merit, on being commissioned into the respective Arms and Services included – Madras Regiment Medal to Chandrakant Acharya, for being first in infantry and the 3 Gorkha Rifles Medal to Amarpreet Singh Dhatt for standing second in infantry. Mechanised Infantry Medal and Trophy was bagged by Rishabh Kumar. Army Ordinance Corps Medal was awarded to Inderjit Singh. Regiment of Artillery Medal and Trophy was awarded to Hemant Poonia, who stood first in artillery. The ceremony signifies a momentous occasion in the lives of the Gentlemen Cadets wherein they are welcomed into the folds of their respective regiments and services. It marks the beginning of an association of a lifetime.


Dy Commandant’s parade held at IMA

Dy Commandant’s parade held at IMA
Deputy Commandant and Chief Instructor of the Indian Military Academy Maj Gen JS Nehra reviews the parade at the IMA on Tuesday. Tribune photo

Tribune News Service

Dehradun, December 5

Some days ahead of the passing out parade at the Indian Military Academy, the Deputy Commandant and Chief Instructor’s parade was conducted today at the historic Chetwode drill square, where 363 Indian and 78 foreign Gentlemen Cadets displayed enthusiasm, vigour and zeal in drill movements performed by them.Maj Gen JS Nehra, Deputy Commandant and Chief Instructor of the Indian Military Academy, reviewed the parade. He complimented the Gentlemen Cadets for good parade. He asserted that the efforts of the faculty and the hard work of the GCs were evident from the crisp and coordinated movements. He said he was hopeful that the standards would improve further  when the final passing out parade would take place on December 9 .He also complimented the Gentlemen Cadets for the hard work put in and for having finally reached the threshold to a world filled with challenges and responsibilities of protecting the boundries of the country . He said the GCs had been taught repeatedly to ‘lead by example’ and the soldiers who would be under their command should look up to them with pride.“The duty of the IMA to train the GCs ends hereinafter, after which they will step into their units and regiments, who will groom them further and make them responsible and competent leaders”, he said.The event was a success and was witnessed by a large number of schoolchildren, residents and Army personnel with their friends and families.


Reversing slaughter ban Hindutva succumbs to common sense

Reversing slaughter ban

WORLD opinion and economic necessity do matter. And that is why the Modi government finds itself constrained to explore a rolling back of the ban on the sale of cattle for slaughter in animal markets. The notification was a natural progression of the Modi government’s strategy to use the cow as a tool for consolidating the Hindu vote bank. It appeared to look the other way when Hindutva vigilantes resorted to extortion and lynching; the state governments too failed to prosecute them; the lumpens demanded a comprehensive anti-cattle slaughter law. Largely from urban areas, these Hindutva cheerleaders were uninformed about the role of cattle slaughter (not cows alone) in our daily lives and its integrality of rural livelihoods.But it is unpardonable for the Modi government now to pretend to be surprised at the consequences. That is what policy making is all about. Didn’t it know the ban will hit more than the meat industry? Or that the cattle let loose were extracting environmental costs and destroying the livelihoods of Hindus, Jains and Muslims alike? The fact is only 30 per cent of the carcass is used for meat. The rest goes into the making of at least 50 items of daily use. As far as cows go, the Modi government needn’t have burnt the midnight oil to frame laws or its leaders to go around stumping for the cause and leave unbridgeable social tensions in their wake. All that the government had to do, if the cow cause was actually close to its heart, was to implement in spirit a Supreme Court order upholding anti-cow slaughter laws in about 20 states.However, utopian visions come crashing down in the actual world. And that is what happened with the ban. New Delhi’s obsession had begun to disrupt rural lives. Prices of many downstream products from shoes to buttons were bound to shoot up. A study showed it would cost over Rs 5,000 crore annually to feed all the bulls in Maharashtra alone. For outsiders, India began to look like Pakistan Lite without the bomb blasts. The political reward from the ban began diminishing when benchmarked against the costs of rural distress and foreign opprobrium. Irresponsible politics invariably produces bad politics.


100 YEARS OF MASSACRE BY GENERAL DYER Malik demands development package for Jallianwala Bagh

Malik demands development package for Jallianwala Bagh
The Jallianwala Bagh massacre will mark its 100th year in 2019. Tribune Photo

Tribune News Service

Amritsar, November 13

Rajya Sabha MP Shwait Malik has demanded a special package from Union Cultural Minister Dr Mahesh Sharma for the development of Jallianwala Bagh on the completion of 100 years of the massacre.After meeting Dr Sharma in New Delhi recently, Malik said the minister had assured him of all help while asserting that Jallianwala Bagh is a national monument and the Centre is committed to its development.Malik told the minister that in April 2019, the Jallianwala Bagh massacre would mark its 100th year and to pay a befitting homage to the martyrs, the Union Government should grant a special package for the development of the historical monument so that visitors should know how the people of the country had fought and laid down their lives during the Independence struggle.Malik said he had sanctioned Rs 10 lakh from his discretionary grant for the monument’s development. He added that the work of painting Jallianwala Bagh was in progress.The MP said new sanitary fittings and renovation work of washrooms, a water cooler with an RO system, installation of ceiling fans in the visitor gallery, repairs of fountains and lighting were going on.He added that the main emphasis was to restart the documentary on the massacre.


Saudi Arabia In Ferment: Complexities Of A Royal Coup by Lt Gen Syed Ata Husnain

Mohammad bin Salman

SNAPSHOT

The attempted transition of Saudi Arabia is not going to be an easy affair. The strategic environment of the Middle East isn’t exactly conducive for that and the internal structure of the Saudi ruling family is a mixture of politics, deceit and subterfuge.

If you haven’t been following the events in Saudi Arabia you should start by knowing something about the ‘Sudairi Seven’. It is not a sports team or a fancy club but a lineage of royalty; to know more you need to go back to 1953. King Abdulaziz ibn Saud set up the current House of Saud in 1932 and named the desert territory he captured and consolidated, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He lived till 1953 and thereafter three successors followed, all his sons – kings Saud, Feisal and Khaled.

Thereafter, the throne has invariably been occupied by one of his seven other offspring from his favourite wife; Hassa bin Ahmad al Sudairi, thus called the Sudairi Seven. The current ruler King Salman is possibly the last of these sons although there was one more to follow, Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, now disempowered. The next generation of the Sudairi Seven is currently hankering for power. It all started in 2015 when the current ruler King Salman ascended the throne. His nephew, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef was appointed the Crown Prince but that lasted till 2017 when King Salman’s young, dynamic and ambitious son Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), 32, usurped the appointment after labelling Prince Nayef a drug addict.

It is now MBS all the way; where he plans to take Saudi Arabia is where the nation could apparently go but there could be more palace coups waiting to take place. The attempted transition of Saudi Arabia is not going to be an easy affair. The strategic environment of the Middle East isn’t exactly conducive for that and the internal structure of the Saudi ruling family is a mixture of politics, deceit and subterfuge.

It just needs to be remembered that Saudi Arabia’s stability all these years has been based upon a ‘live and let live’ policy followed by various inter-related members of the royal family. Cocooned in comfortable high profile jobs they get paid obnoxiously high packages. Most have invested money obtained by selling royal largesse. Now the next generation of the Sudairi Seven is positioned to take power after King Salman and there is little time left for niceties.

On 5 November 2017, officials loyal to MBS moved rather quickly, to arrest 11 princes, along with dozens of other officials and businessmen, at his direction and that of his father, King Salman. Nominally, the arrests are part of an anti-corruption drive spearheaded by the prince but what’s really happening is that the Crown Prince and heir to the throne is consolidating power and eliminating potential rivals. The military and the National Guard, a 100,000-man praetorian guard that was the long-standing preserve of late King Abdullah, has remained silent in the wake of this weekend’s arrest of its commander, Prince Mutaib bin Abdullah, a son of Late King Abdullah, and the dismissal of the navy commander. The National Guard is a force that evolved from late King Abdulaziz ibn Saud’s (founder of the House of Saud) original tribal army and later functioned as a sort of loyal protection for the regime from possible coups. Which side its loyalties will tilt will be an important factor, but it is likely that MBS would have catered for that while attempting his turbulent actions.

What are the internal and external dynamics related to Saudi Arabia’s immediate future and how does the arrival of MBS impact these is the key question that analysts are examining.

Internally Saudi Arabia isn’t exactly in the state of pink. Decline in oil prices, dilution of US energy dependence and a shrinking economy have led to lowering of its prestige and a weak economic situation. MBS wants to overcome this by preparing the nation for the post energy era, 2030 and beyond; a noble and pragmatic thought indeed. The carefully emplaced balance of power between the powerful Wahabi clergy and the royal house is under strain. This is because, internationally, the Saudi ideological footprint is being blamed for the rising tide of radical extremism in Islam. Saudi Arabia has been funding the spread of Wahabi ideology across the world through construction of mosques and seminaries. In fact, the Saudi-funded seminaries established in vicinity of Pakistan’s western borders with Afghanistan, post the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan were responsible for the creation of Taliban and a host of others who spread the radical message across the world.

MBS is attempting to project a new Saudi Arabia, much more moderate towards different segments of society. Permitting women to drive and also attend sports events at stadia is a part of this move. The clergy who has been politically quiet because of the balanced equation thus far may not wish to remain so in the future; that could spell problems for MBS. The last time that the clergy really exercised its power was after the Ikhwan takeover of the Grand Mosque in Mecca in December 1979. Its insistence thereafter on greater ideological responsibility by the royal house led to the worldwide increase in Saudi funding and activity towards its brand of Islam.

Will MBS be able to pull off his mission of creating a more moderate society even if resisted by the clergy? In the light of the fact that the Shia revival is moving forward strongly with the defeat of the ISIS, the Russia-Syria-Iran combine’s domination in the Syrian civil war and the Levant emerging as a virtual Shia territory, will the Saudi clergy loosen its ideological strings to accommodate MBS’ aim and intent? Whether MBS is schooled well in history is not certain but consolidation of power without the clergy’s support may prove to be a handful for the young and ambitious Crown Prince.

MBS is obviously hugely encouraged by the apparent support he seems to be getting from US President Donald Trump. Bruce Reidel, the US expert on the Middle East, had this to say – “the Trump administration has tied the United States to the impetuous young Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and seems to be quite oblivious to the dangers. But they are growing every day.” Trump visited Saudi Arabia early in the first year of his presidency but more for the purpose of consolidating a front against Iran. The finalisation of the Qatar standoff within the Gulf Cooperation Council can be traced to this visit although Trump remains uncertain on Qatar. It is Iran that he is after.

Iran as an entity in the Middle East politics plays a major role. Firstly, it provides the Shia pole in the Shia-Sunni sectarian divide. Ever since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, it is perceived to harbour ambitions of leading the Islamic world in which the Shias are as it is in minority. The ideological and sectarian divide manifests politically in a severe competition for domination. Currently, this is happening in two areas. First is in Yemen where Iran supports the Houthis by proxy. The Houthi movement champions Yemen’s Zaidi Shia Muslim minority.

In 2015, Saudi Arabia and eight other mostly Sunni Arab states began an air campaign aimed at restoring the Sunni majority government of Yemen. The war has continued inconclusively, in fact politically quite disastrously for Saudi Arabia. Just as the virtual palace coup was in progress a missile is reported to have been fired over Riyadh by the Houthi rebels and was shot down by the Saudis. The Saudi reluctance to enter into a ground campaign leaves them with no possibility of a victory. This is going to be a mill stone around the neck of the young Crown Prince. Prudence demands that he declares a victory and ceases further conduct of the campaign and politically manages the post seizure of operations scenario as best as he can. It will, however, further weaken him in his conflict of interest with the clergy and also consolidate Iran’s growing clout.

The less than comprehensive defeat of ISIS (it still remains in a networked state much as the Al Qaeda did) and the impending domination of the Levant by the Russia-Syria-Iran combine is having its impact already. Threatened by the Shia march, Lebanon’s Sunni Prime Minister Saad Hariri fled to Saudi Arabia and this week announced that he is stepping down. This creates another defeat for Saudi Arabia’s strategic hold over the Middle East and leaves one more precarious situation for MBS to handle. The Hezbollah’s hold now strengthened means Iran’s virtual control over Lebanon. Whether President Trump can even visualise the changing strategic balance of power in the Middle East is doubtful. A potentially rash action to disrupt the Iran nuclear deal could well follow leaving Iran even less responsible in its actions but fully backed by Russia.

To handle the complexities arising out of the fast changing strategic situation in the Middle East would require consensus within Saudi Arabia and not the divisiveness created by MBS’ actions. If Iran takes the battle inside Saudi Arabia by instigating the Shia minority which exists as majority in crucial locations such as the energy rich eastern segment of Dammam, it could well mean war. It is unlikely that Iran will be in a hurry so soon after scoring victories over ISIS and taking control of Syria and Lebanon.

MBS needs also to remain warned that the ISIS has only been defeated militarily in terms of territory. Where it has dissipated is not fully known. It thrives in a zone where turbulence exists and central authority is weak. Hypothetically the possibility of ISIS reaching out to a confused Saudi National Guard under instigation by the Saudi clergy, cannot be ruled out.

Thus Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman for all his suaveness and youthful leadership is likely to remain embroiled in much more than he can chew. In such circumstances a counter revolution cannot be ruled out with disastrous consequences for the stability of the throne and Saudi Arabia’s very existence.

What is there for India in this emerging thriller? The greater the Saudi turbulence, higher is the likelihood of rise in oil prices. This is something that the Narendra Modi government can ill afford at a time when it is just emerging from the effects of goods and services tax (GST) and demonetisation. Secondly, a 2.3 million Indian diaspora in Saudi Arabia exists. In a state of internal turbulence its security will need to be safeguarded with a potential contingency of evacuation. Thirdly, India’s stakes in the stability of the Gulf region are extremely high. Saudi Arabia in turmoil is hardly likely to remain isolated as the same could spread to other kingdoms; a kind of late and perverse Arab Spring. The Indian diaspora all over the Gulf will remain in a state of flux. Fourthly, the Middle East in turmoil and state of potential conflict spells bad news for economics everywhere, especially for a nation like India, which is struggling to maintain an even keel in growth.

How much influence the US can exercise over this potentially negative situation to bring about any semblance of stability and freedom from conflict in the crucial region of the Middle East, is less sure than ever before. Russia’s cooperation will be sorely needed. Yet, for now all eyes should remain on how the internal affairs of Saudi Arabia pan out. The nation has suffered instability in the past too and emerged from it. This time too that may just be so.