MG Devasahayam
There is the same disturbing pattern that continues —confusion in command and control, abysmal physical security measures, leadership without responsibility, and political one-upmanship. Add to this, the media nautanki and Paki-bashing. The game of warmongering continues. However, we do need to ask a few tough questions.

Cost of subconventional war: Soldiers move around during an encounter with the militants after the recent attack on an Army base camp in Baramulla district of north Kashmir. PTI

ALL that Lt Gen Ranbir Singh, Director General Military Operations said in the afternoon of September 29 is that there were limited “surgical strikes” across the border to foil the attempts of terrorist teams planning to carry out infiltration and terrorist attacks in India resulting in “significant casualties” on them. He was emphatic when he said: “the operations aimed at neutralising the terrorists have since ceased. We do not have any plans for continuation of further operations.” But media pounced on it and along with assorted columnists/journalists, ex-diplomats, ex-Generals and party hawks went for the kill with unabashed hatred-peddling. As if eye-witnesses, they rattled out the number of launch pads  attacked, Army units that conducted the strike, number of soldiers in the strike force, distance the soldiers walked, weapons used, ammunition fired and precise number of terrorists killed. They also talked of intense diplomatic engagement by National Security Advisor (NSA) and Foreign Secretary and the critical conversation between the former and his US counterpart. Nothing was left to the imagination. Electronic media went ballistic and encouraged use of expletives and jingoist language. Anchors and panellists did not separate fact from fiction. They just chose to be cheerleaders of the government and its spin-doctors. Saner voices were shut down as heretic. Debates were so scary that there was panic all over as if war was imminent. People living in the border areas of Punjab evacuated their abodes, abandoning crops ready for harvesting. Soon enough the cat was out of the bag. Mukesh Aghi, president of  the US-India Business Council, a business advocacy organisation working to boost India-US trade, made a brazen statement that the expected increase in India’s defence spending due to the current stand-off with Pakistan has presented a “tremendous opportunity” to major US companies including Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon to expand their Indian operations. He went on to say that the technology on big- ticket items will definitely come from the US, either from the aircraft carriers or secured communications or from the missile side! The military view, echoed by some former Generals, is that the successful “surgical strikes” could kick-start a new phase of confrontation between India and Pakistan, possibly characterised by wholly new strategies which will be tested over time and refined.  The big question is: confrontation for what purpose — to wage another full-fledged war after 45 long years? Unfortunately, an analysis of various reports shows that it is highly unlikely that India has the artillery and ammunition resources even to fight a limited war like Kargil. On war India has three options-conventional, sub-conventional and nuclear. An all-out nuclear war is out of question. Sub-conventional warfare involves stealth attacks and guerrilla tactics, similar to the Army’s surgical strikes. The third option is conventional warfare. Notwithstanding the importance of regional, strategic and political considerations and all that is lost in the rhetoric, the truth is India is not economically prepared to wage war in this manner. In any conventional warfare with Pakistan, it is the Indian Army that will be at the forefront. As of now, the revenue to capital ratio of Army spending is highly skewed in favour of the former as much as 85:15. This indicates that a large amount of budget spend for the Army is towards pay and allowances rather than for capital expenditure. Further examination of data suggests that ratio of indigenous acquisition to foreign sources for the Army is approximately 70:30. Since the Army’s artillery and ammunition needs are exclusively met by ordinance factories (OFs) it is over-dependent on domestic acquisition. This has made army very vulnerable in terms of its war wastage reserves (WWR). As per the Army’s operational doctrine, India is required to maintain a WWR of 40 “days of intense war” (war (I)). After the Kargil war of 1999, the Army headquarters introduced a new target of Minimum Accepted Risk Level (MARL), which was set at 20 war (I). The findings of a CAG report show that the Army’s current WWR stands at a critical low of 10 war (I) or even less as of March 2013. As per data in the report, of the 48 ammunition categories audited by CAG, it was found that OFs were unable to meet their production targets across 52 per cent of the product categories. Of this 52 per cent, in 23 per cent of the product categories, the shortfall was well over 50 per cent. The Army top-brass has been continuously pointing out this severe flaw to the government, but to no avail. Realising these constraints and shortfalls, they have been reticent and restrained. Coming to brass-tacks, the surgical strikes are the fallout of the failure of the Uri Brigade commander to secure his base, which led to his removal from that position. But retired Army brass insists it was an institutional weakness and not command failure. They want citizens and even uniformed personnel to be better sensitised about national expectations versus national willingness to part with more resources for defence and security. One of them has gone to the extent of asking the Army to unequivocally state that the nation will get the security it pays for and no more. One wonders whether mercenary language is creeping in! These worthies should realise that Uri closely followed the Pathankot air base mess-up by the Indian Air Force, National Security Guards, Indian Army and Defence Security Corps all put together. A disturbing pattern continues —–confusion in command and control, indifference to warning of a terrorist attack, abysmal physical security measures, leadership without responsibility, incoherent public communication and political one-upmanship. Added to this is the same old media nautanki and Paki-bashing. The regime change in 2014 has not made any difference. Why this? The answer is not far to seek. Despite the cacophony of reforms, ‘Make-in-India’, FDI, and what not, India’s basic governance and administration is at its nadir and national security forms part of this basic. In the event, India does not even have a national security architecture. We have Ministries of Home and External Affairs responsible for internal security and foreign affairs respectively. But we have no geopolitical-based foreign policy or national security system. Instead we have the NSA, an office that has neither institutional sanction nor parliamentary accountability. It is this entity which is in command of all affairs concerning external and internal security. We saw this happening in Pathankot and now in Uri, wherein the Army Chief was playing second fiddle. Unless this severe malady is addressed with urgency and remedied any amount of warmongering will be of no avail and India will continue to remain a nation sans security. There is a famous saying: “Freedom is the outcome of the tranquility of peace.” Without these two attributes in a nation there cannot be any “development.” War is the enemy of freedom and peace and, therefore, that of “development”. The question in everyone’s mind is whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi is abandoning the “development” agenda by drumming up the war cry. Or is it to cover-up the failure of this agenda in the first half of the Modi government? Will not warmongering, using soldiers as cannon-fodder, divert scarce resources towards massive arms purchase? Will this cost India security and development? These questions need to be asked and answers found. The sooner, the better. The writer is a former IAS officer .

Civilians being evacuated in Guntrian sector. Tribune photo

Arteev Sharma & DK Sudan

Tribune News Service

Jammu/Poonch, October 3

The Pakistan army today again violated the ceasefire at three places along the Line of Control (LoC) by resorting to unprovoked heavy shelling and firing on forward villages in Poonch district, resulting in injuries to five persons, including four women.Pakistani troops targeted seven-eight forward villages along the LoC, with 82 mm and 120 mm mortars, and heavy machine guns, forcing villagers to run for shelter.The intense shelling and firing comes against the backdrop of an unsuccessful “fidayeen” attack in Baramulla last night and the two-day visit of Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh to Ladakh beginning today.Sources said the Pakistani troops violated the truce between the two countries in Shahpur and Saujian sectors along the LoC in Poonch.“The Pakistan army targeted Kranti post in Krishna Ghati sector at 1 am and firing continued till 1.45 am. Our troops gave a calibrated response,” sources said. Pakistan troops again violated ceasefire at Shahpur and Saujian sectors along the LoC in Poonch in which three civilians, including two women, were injured.In the Shahpur sector, Pakistan troops resorted to heavy shelling and machine gun fire at 10.45 am. The firing continued till late this evening. Another ceasefire violation was reported at the Saujian sector. The firing started at 11.20 am. Heavy loss to civilian property has been reported in the shelling. However, there was no report of casualties on either side.“Five persons received splinter injuries after a shell from across the LoC exploded in Qasba and Gagrian villages of Shahpur sector. A woman Special Police Officer was also among the injured. She had gone to meet her relatives in Qasba,” sources said.The injured were identified as Ghulam Hussain and Raseela Bi, both residents of Qasba village, Uzma Bi (18) and Haneefa Akhtar (17), both residents of Gagrian village, and woman SPO Shah Begum. The injured were shifted to Poonch district hospital.The shelling from Pakistan side also created among the people in Gali Maidan area of Saujian sector after some containers filled with kerosene caught fire at a joint base camp of the BSF and the Army. “Some civilians were injured in the firing along the LoC as Pakistani troops targeted forward villages in Saujian and Shahpur sectors,” Mohammad Harun Malik, Deputy Commissioner, Poonch, said. The administration had asked civilians to move to safer places, he added.In the Gali Maidan area of Saujian sector, some kerosene containers caught fire after a shell exploded near the joint Army-BSF camp there. The Deputy Commissioner said some shops, mainly kiosks, outside the joint Army-BSF camp were gutted after the kerosene containers caught fire. While sources put the number of damaged shops at 11, the DC said the exact number was yet to be ascertained. “We have sent a naib tehsildar and the SHO concerned for assessment of loss to the shops,” he said.

BSF fires in Gurdaspur

Punjab cops conduct a search in a cane field near Chakri post. afp

Ravi Dhaliwal

Tribune News Service

Dorangla (Gurdaspur), Oct 3

Border Security Force jawans fired in the air after noticing some suspicious movement across the barbed wire fencing near the BSF Chakri post late last night, igniting rumours that an “intrusion bid” had been foiled.Sources said the firing, which went on for a couple of minutes, started around 10.45 pm after the troopers, using handheld thermal imagers (HHTI), noticed “some suspicious movement” near the international border. “It could be related to some animals grazing across the border or a group of people,” said a Punjab Police officer. Senior BSF officers remained tightlipped and steadfastly refused to comment on the incident.There was no cross-border firing and whatever shot were fired were from the BSF side. An officer, who was engaged in the firing,said: “All I can say is that our jawans fired after we suspected some movement.” Hours later, Gurdaspur DC Pardeep Sabharwal convened a meeting of BSF and police officers to take stock of the situation. Later, a high-level meeting of officials of the Army, RAW, IB and the police was held. The Punjab Police launched a search operation in the morning near the Chakri picket.

Sunday’s Retreat ceremony was opened to the public for the first time after the September 28 surgical strikes by the Indian Army across the Line of Control. ANI

New Delhi, October 2

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan will be the chief guest at the Republic Day parade next year. This was announced by External Affairs spokesman Vikas Swarup here today.In a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Mohamed bin Zayed expressed “thanks for the kind invitation”.The visit of Al Nahyan, who is also Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE armed forces, is expected to boost bilateral ties in key areas of trade and security. Significantly, the UAE is a close ally of Pakistan, whom India is trying to diplomatically isolate over cross-border terrorism. — PTI

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Is Lt Gen Surinder Singh on Probation Peroid???  The Non-updating of Web Site not understood

People from border villages at a relief camp in Chabhal, Punjab, Friday. (Source: Express photo by Rana Simranjit Singh)

A DAY after the Army conducted “surgical strikes” on terror launch pads along the Line of Control (LoC) in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), the Union Home Ministry issued a nationwide advisory to “maintain high levels of vigil to thwart any attempts by terrorists to strike back”. The government is also learnt to have told the BSF to use “full force” to defend the border in case of ceasefire violations by Pakistan.

“While the next 10-15 days will be particularly crucial, the highest level of alertness will be necessary until the end of October. This is a particularly sensitive time as the festival season is approaching. Border states such as J&K, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Punjab, as well as the metros, have been cautioned through an advisory. Coastal security measures have been stepped up, too,” said a senior Intelligence Bureau official.

This time, the major concern is the possibility of retaliatory attacks by terrorists who had infiltrated into Indian territory earlier, said the official. “As per our assessments, around 85-90 terrorists have infiltrated this year. This is our biggest threat at the moment,” said the official.

On Friday, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh reviewed the security situation during an hour-long meeting with senior officials, including National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Union Home Secretary Rajiv Mehrishi, during which he was briefed about measures taken to foil any attempts from Pakistan to target BSF posts or civilians in forward areas.

Singh instructed officials to ensure that the highest level of alert is maintained to foil any such bid. In a separate meeting, he also reviewed issues relating to the Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) deployed along the India-China border.

The BSF, meanwhile, has already put its units on high alert, and has been instructed to assist the local administration in evacuating civilians from villages along the LoC, said officials. Two more battalions have been rushed to the Jammu border in addition to around 15 battalions on the 190-km stretch, they said.

“Forces have been asked to be prepared but wait and watch. We will not be the aggressor. But if Pakistan indulges in unprovoked firing at the border, the BSF will reply in the manner that it did in 2014,” said a Home Ministry official.

The official was referring to the unprecedented escalation of tension months after the NDA government came to power, which saw 12-hour gunbattles for days between BSF and Pakistan Rangers. While 11 people were killed in Pakistani shelling at the time, Indian forces had claimed to have killed 50 people across the border.

“Although there is no specific intelligence on cross-border infiltration in the past two days or any impending signs of ceasefire violations, we are fully prepared,” said a senior BSF officer.

On Thursday, India had carried out “surgical strikes” on seven terror launch pads across the LoC with the Army inflicting “significant casualties” on terrorists preparing to infiltrate from PoK, marking a clear departure from its response to cross-border terrorism in the past. The strikes were conducted 10 days after the terrorist attack on an Army camp in Uri that left 18 soldiers dead.

During the meeting on ITBP, the Home Minister was briefed on the force’s strength at the border outposts, construction and upgradation of helipads and additional air courier services, apart from issues related to housing, health and education facilities.

Director General, ITBP, D K Chaudhary made a presentation and informed the Home Minister that cadre management and other issues of the force could be further improved. Singh asked the Home Ministry to extend assistance to the ITBP for the welfare of jawans and their families, and provide them training and better equipment.

Army raid from midnight to dawn at 5 places on other side of J&K | Says terrorists neutralised in swift operation; Pak denies claim

•  Lt Gen Ranbir Singh,

Director General Military Operations

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The resolute action by India came 11 days after 18 soldiers were killed in the Uri sector. AFP

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, September 29

Mounting a swift counter-terror operation across the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian Army today announced it had neutralised terrorists waiting to infiltrate. The brave military manoeuvre was hailed across the country.The ‘surgical strikes’ was a resolute action by India 11 days after 18 soldiers were killed in the Uri sector in an attack by Jaish terrorists from across the border. The action came days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised that the blood of the jawans will not go in vain and the Army, asserting it will act at a place and time of its choosing, did so from midnight to dawn at five places and six launch pads.“Based on specific and credible inputs that some terrorist teams had positioned themselves at launch pads along the LoC to carry out infiltration and conduct terrorist strikes inside J&K and in various metros, the Indian Army conducted surgical strikes at several of these launch pads. The operations were focussed on ensuring that these terrorists do not succeed in their design to endanger the lives of our citizens,” the Director General of Military Operations, Lt. Gen Ranbir Singh, said at a joint briefing with the Ministry of External Affairs. He said he had shared the information with his Pakistani counterpart.Pakistan rejected across-LoC strikes as a “fabrication of truth”, suggesting it was a move to cater to the domestic media and public. “There has been no surgical strike by India; instead, there had been cross-border fire initiated and conducted by India which is an existential phenomenon,” the Pakistan army said. It admitted the loss of two soldiers and injuries to nine.Stating that significant casualties were caused to terrorists and those providing support, the DGMO said while India does not have any further plans to continue, it was fully prepared for any contingency that may arise.An immediate fallout was that border residents of Punjab were asked to move to safer locations and India stepped up its international outreach with Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar briefing envoys from 25 countries. Earlier, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval spoke to his counterpart in the US.Prior to the announcement on the successful conduct of the operation, Prime Minister Modi chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security that was briefed about it. He later briefed President Pranab Mukherjee and spoke to Vice-President Hamid Ansari and former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. On his part, Home Minister Rajnath Singh briefed several chief ministers and leaders of various political parties, all of whom came out in support of the action against terrorists.

What he said…

• Significant casualties have been caused to the terrorists andthose who are trying to support them. India’s intention is to maintain peace in the region,
• but we can certainly not allow terrorists to operate across LoC with impunity and attack our citizens.
• In line with Pakistan’s commitment made in January 2004 not to allow its soil or territory under its control for any terrorist activities against India, we expect the Pakistani army to cooperate to erase this menace of terrorism. — Lt Gen Ranbir Singh,Director General Military Operations

The evacuation has already started in Ferozepur. Tribune photo: Anirudh Gupta

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, September 29

Following instructions from the Centre, Punjab has ordered the evacuation of people from villages falling within 10 km of the border with Pakistan after India conducted surgical strikes across the LoC on Wednesday night.Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal on Thursday put the entire government and political machinery in an emergency mode following reports of developments on the India-Pakistan border.

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Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh spoke to Badal on phone in the morning to request him to immediately start the process of evacuation of people residing in villages falling within 10 km of the international border in view of the escalating situation.During an emergency meeting convened at his official residence, Badal directed the Chief Secretary and DGP, who were present, to ask deputy commissioners (DCs) and senior superintendents of police (SSPs) to oversee the entire evacuation process in the border districts of Ferozepur, Fazilka, Amritsar, Tarn Taran, Gurdaspur and Pathankot. The Chief Minister directed the DCs to identify suitable locations for setting up camps and ensure that none of the residents being evacuated were put to any inconvenience.The Chief Minister also spoke to the cabinet ministers and MLAs to camp in these border districts in which their assembly constituencies fell, to keep close liaison with the district administration to ensure the safe movement of the residents of the villages within close proximity of the border.Badal also directed the Chief Secretary to immediately release Rs 1 crore each to all deputy commissioners of six border districts to meet out any exigency arising out of the prevailing situation.The Chief Minister has also called an emergency meeting of the state Cabinet at 6 pm on Thursday to review the situation in the wake of the recent developments on the border and the advisory issued by the Ministry of Home Affairs.The meeting was attended by Chief Secretary Sarvesh Kaushal, Principal Secretary to Chief Minister SK Sandhu, DGP Suresh Arora and Special Principal Secretary to Chief Minister Gaggandip Singh Brar.According to reports, schools in border areas have been closed.

Meanwhile, district administrations have been arranging buses for people to move away from villages along the border. Medical staff has been asked to remain on duty. Civil surgeons have been told to put things in place in emergency wards.

Marriage palace owners have been asked to keep their palaces vacant. In case of need, people moving out of the border belt can be put there. All government employees who were on leave asked to report back in the border district. Revenue officials asked to make arrangements to set up relief camps.

ISLAMABAD/NEW DELHI: Pakistani warplanes landed on a highway linking Peshawar and Rawalpindi on Thursday as part of an exercise, fuelling speculation that the armed forces were preparing for possible hostilities with India.

APAnti­India protestors gather in Islamabad on Thursday to express solidarity with Kashmiris.

A Pakistan Air Force (PAF) spokesman said F-7 and Mirage jets touched down on the M1 Motorway, a 155-km highway, as part of the “Highmark” exercise, media reports said.

Pakistani social media users posted footage of a jet landing on the highway.

Highmark, one of the PAF’s largest wargames, is expected to end on September 24.

Despite officials insisting that the exercise was planned in advance, the closure of the airspace and flights by combat jets led to rumours that Pakistan’s armed forces were preparing for a possible Indian attack, the Dawn newspaper reported.

Despite the air exercise, most Pakistani analysts and commentators ruled out a military confrontation .

“We are seeing a lot of tough talking but whether that translates into anything more substantial is doubtful,” commented leading analyst Lt Gen (retired ) Talat Masood. He said India-Pakistan ties have now settled into a “comfortable pattern” which usually has its high and low points. The only fear this time was whether India would want to break the pattern due to pressure on the Modi government.

Ex-servicemen raise anti-Pakistan slogans in Karnal on Thursday. Tribune photo: Ravi Kumar

Tribune News Service

Karnal, September 22

Members of the Purv Sainik Sanyukt Sangharsh Samiti today protested against the terrorist attack on the Army camp in Uri sector on Sunday. They burnt the flag of Pakistan and extended their support to the Army and said that they would join hands with the Army in the war-like situation. Besides, they also paid tributes to the brave soldiers.Rajbir Singh Chauhan, chairman of the sangh, led the protest and handed over a memorandum addressed to the President to SDM Yogesh Kumar. He said that members of their sangh had given their consent to extend support to the Army in any situation of war.He said that the sangh condemned the cowardly act and demanded equal compensation for the family members of the Uri martyrs.

WITH THE TRIFURCATION OF J&K, THE CHOICE TO LIVE WITH ARTICLE 370 OR ABROGATE IT SHOULD BE LEFT TO THE THREE STATES. AT THE SAME TIME, STEPS TOWARDS ABROGATION OF INDUS WATER TREATY SHOULD BE TAKEN UP WITHOUT DELAY

That the Jammu and Kashmir problem has been grossly mishandled right from the start needs no recalling. What is of concern is that it continues to be mismanaged. Killing a known terrorist led to widespread disturbance, loss of life and injuries to hundreds, including police personnel. Stonepelting has become a routine form of protest, where those indulging in this unlawful activity are paid Rs 200 to Rs 500 a day. That the authorities have failed to track down the source of this money and those making these payments, speaks volumes of the poor state of administration, intelligence and the law and order. Those instigating these protests from the precincts of mosques too have been given a free run. Else by now most of those indulging in anti-national activities should have been rounded up.

Given the unrest in the valley, Pakistan was expected to not only exploit the situation but also give impetus to the disturbance by staging cross-border raids in continuation of its policy of ‘thousand cuts’. That the Uri attack has caused so many casualties speaks volumes about the equally poor state of alertness and security arrangements at the military camp.

WATER WAY OUT

While there is much chest-beating and clamour in India for an immediate and strong retaliation, what is not being appreciated is that India has been left with few options. In any case, the political class needs to enunciate its policy taking into account the full ramifications of it, and leave it to the military to execute it in the manner it finds appropriate.

At the diplomatic level, to hope that concerted efforts by India can result in Pakistan being declared a terrorist state by the United Nations is to overlook the veto power of China. In any case, diplomacy has never been India’s asset.

What is possible, and must be played out to full, is the abrogation of the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan.

After all, terrorism and friendly treaties cannot go hand in hand. There is, therefore, the need to put both Pakistan and World Bank on notice. The Indus water treaty was negotiated through the World Bank. To let Pakistan know that we are serious about abrogating this treaty, work on diverting waters of the Chandrabagha tributary of the Chenab river into the Beas at Manali needs to be started. At the same time, India should begin work on the Salal Dam to convert it from a run-of-the river project to a storage dam.

hese steps alone will be enough to make Pakistan fall in line.

Much of the discontent in the Valley is hype. There is no absolute poverty there as it is in other parts of Jammu and Kashmir or parts of India. Billions of rupees that the Indian government has been doling out to the state since Independence have mostly been deployed in the Kashmir Valley. Admittedly, a good part of these funds have ended up in political and bureaucratic pockets. What India has been overlooking is the imperatives of the trifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir into three independent states: Kashmir Valley, including areas across the Nasthachun Pass, Jammu region, including KishtwarDoda, and Ladakh, including Kargil, Zanskar, and Nubra Valley.

BANE OF ARTICLE 370

While Article 370 has been a major impediment to economic development of Jammu and Kashmir, those in the valley have been made to believe that its abrogation will be their ruin. This line has suited the political class and others with vested interest to the great disadvantage of the common man.

With Article 370 in place, no large-scale industry has come to the state. No major investment from outside has taken place in the tourist industry though the scope for it in Jammu and Kashmir is enormous. Nor has the state drawn any outside investment in education and healthcare.

Article 370 has resulted in the stagnation of price of properties and land. The absence of industrialisation has denied the youth lakhs of jobs, which industry and tourism would have, otherwise created. Therefore, unemployment haunts the youth who have become more disgruntled not only in Kashmir but also in the rest of the state. In the valley, they are easily exploited by the separatists and the Inter Services Intelligence of Pakistan, pinning the cause of their distress on India.

With the trifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir, the choice to live with Article 370 or abrogate it should be left with the three states. At the same time, steps towards the abrogation of the Indus Water Treaty should be taken up without any delay and dithering.