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No war with Islamabad in near future

No war with Islamabad in near future

Ajay Banerjee

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, October 12Ever since the Army carried out surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) to target terror camps in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK), the possibility of Pakistan retaliating has been “war-gamed” — a military art of predicting a future outcome or postures — in New Delhi.A war with Pakistan has been ruled out, for now —unless it’s thrust upon India by its neighbour. A top official said various scenarios had been studied and the closest assessment was that the Pakistan army would continue to use terrorists to cause damage in Jammu and Kashmir and India would retaliate accordingly.Leave out a nuclear war, even a conventional war might not be an option in immediate future, the official said.After the cross-LoC strikes on September 29, New Delhi told Islamabad in no uncertain terms that it didn’t want to escalate situation, but would respond to any attack or threat appropriately. “This cycle of terrorism cannot hold India to ransom,” he added. The present scenario in which the Pakistan army has been left answering some uncomfortable questions is being seen as a “booster” for the Nawaz Sharif government.On October 3, national security adviser of Pakistan General Nasser Khan Janjua (retd) spoke to his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval.New Delhi’s message is that dialogue is the way forward on Jammu and Kashmir, but only after the Pakistan army stops abetting terrorism. “It’s for Pakistan, its army and its people to take a stand on avoiding escalation,” the functionary said.According to the Pakistan media, General Janjua has said “we are two nuclear states and we cannot be enemies forever” — a clear indication that the message is being read correctly.India’ target is to not let Pakistan continue to use its “low-cost” option of waging a proxy war by sending terrorists to India. A response to such a terror strike will depend on the nature of the attack. It can be on several fronts — diplomatic, military, economic or information warfare.The fact that Pakistan’s own citizens have questioned its wisdom of engaging with India or nurturing terrorists like Hafiz Saeed is being seen as positive step in India.
Read more at http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/no-war-with-islamabad-in-near-future/308779.html#Zea9ywrQ2rbOHLms.99


LeT suffered most in surgical strikes: Report

LeT suffered most in surgical strikes: Report

Baramulla/New Delhi, Oct 9

Pakistan-based terror outfit Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) suffered the maximum damage in the cross-LoC surgical strikes on terror launch pads carried out by the Indian Army, with assessment reports of radio intercepts indicating that around 20 of its terrorists were killed.The assessment reports available from the Indian Army field units, which included radio conversations between various Pakistani formations, showed the maximum damage was inflicted on LeT, a banned terror group, at Dudniyal launch pad in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, opposite to Kupwara sector of north Kashmir.Sources said five teams culled out from the Army division in the area were tasked to destroy launch pads of terror groups located at Kail, also known as Kel and Dudniyal.In the operation, on the intervening night of September 28 and 29, the Army moved across the LoC and smashed four launch pads under the guard of a Pakistani post located 700 metres from the LoC. Sources said the terrorists were taken by surprise. Mainly belonging to the LeT, they were seen running towards the post when they were killed by the Indian troops, according to the assessment reports.After the successful strike inside PoK, an effective radio monitoring and strict vigil was maintained, the sources said, adding that the wireless messages from radio intercepts of Pakistani army indicated that at least 10 LeT terrorists had been killed.There was heavy movement of Pakistani army vehicles till the break of dawn and all the bodies were taken away, the sources said, adding as per the radio intercepts there was a mass burial in the Neelum valley.A similar blow was dealt to the terrorist launch pads at Balnoi area opposite Poonch in which nine people belonging to LeT were killed as per the radio intercepts of Pakistani army, the sources said.Two Pakistani soldiers were also killed. However, the sources said that post 8.30 am of September 28, intercepts between various formations of Pakistan fell silent. — PTI

In 2011 raid, 8 Pak soldiers were killed

  • New Delhi: A surgical strike by the Indian Army in Pakistani territory in 2011 left at least eight Pakistani soldiers dead, with three of them decapitated, a report published on Sunday said. After Pakistani soldiers took away the heads of two Indian soldiers in Kupwara district in Jammu and Kashmir, in a revenge attack, Indian soldiers brought back heads of three Pakistani soldiers, The Hindu said. IANS

 


Lt Gen Hooda tells Army personnel to remain alert

Tribune News Service

Srinagar, October 7

Amid the heightened tension along the Line of Control, Northern Command chief Lt Gen D S Hooda visited the frontier area of Uri on Thursday and reviewed security with the local commanders. Lt General Hooda also took stock of “all measures” taken by the Army to “beat back any misadventure” from across the border.A defence spokesman said the Northern Command chief was accompanied by Srinagar-based Chinar Corps commander Lt Gen Satish Dua during his visit to Uri. Lt General Hooda’s visit came on a day when the Army killed seven militants in two separate operations in north Kashmir.“During his interaction with officers and men on the ground, he conveyed his compliments for their high levels of operational preparedness, vigil and morale and exhorted them to remain alert for any eventuality,” the spokesman said.The spokesman said both senior officers later visited Victor Force Headquarters in south Kashmir where Lt General Hooda was briefed by the Kilo and Victor Force commanders on the security situation in the Valley.


‘Won’t release strikes video’

Agra, October 6

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar today ruled out releasing the video footage of the army’s surgical strikes across the LoC and questioned the “loyalty” of those who “doubt” the forces.Describing the cross-LoC operation as “100 per cent perfect surgical strike”, he said the borders of the country are secure under the Narendra Modi government.Parrikar’s remarks at a function organised by the BJP in Agra to celebrate the strikes came a day after PM Narendra Modi had cautioned against hysteria over the army action at a Cabinet meeting. Parrikar warned that one has to remain vigilant against “certain elements who do not owe their loyalty to the country completely”.“No one had doubted bravery of our forces ever, but some people are doing otherwise,” he said. — PTI

US a declining power: Pak Kashmir envoys

Washington: Pakistan would move towards China and Russia if its views on Kashmir and India are not considered by the US, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s envoys have warned and termed America a “declining” world power. “(The) US is no longer a world power. It is a declining power. Forget about it,” a Special Kashmir Envoy of Sharif, Mushahid Hussain Syed, was quoted as saying yesterday after the conclusion of an interaction at the Atlantic Council, one of the top American think-tanks. Syed and Shazra Mansab, another Kashmir envoy, are in also in the US as part of strategy to popularise Kashmir issue. pti

Thief in Gilgit can’t be friend in J&K: Activist

Thief in Gilgit can’t be friend in J&K: Activist

Washington, October 6

Kashmir is a “money-making machine” for the Pakistani army which wants to maintain status quo in the Valley, a prominent activist from Gilgit-Baltistan has said and quipped that “a thief” in Gilgit cannot be a friend in Jammu and Kashmir.“Pakistan has proxies in Kashmir with explosives and other things,” Senge Sering, director of the Gilgit-Baltistan National Congress, said.“Every time the money dries up, you show up with blackmail, Russia talk, China talk. I request the US to get out of this vicious cycle. Pakistan is not good for any country and it has not done good for the United States,” he said.“You (Pakistan) occupy one-third of Kashmir. An occupier cannot be a friend of Kashmir on the other side. You have been exploiting resources in Gilgit- Baltistan without paying royalty or compensation. I call you a thief in Gilgit-Baltistan. A thief in Gilgit-Baltistan cannot be a fried in Jammu and Kashmir,” he alleged.Pakistan, which calls for implementation of the UN Security Council resolution of a plebiscite, is not fulfilling its first perquisite, which is that Pakistan should vacate the area and hand it over to India, he said.“The double talk that you have been doing in Afghanistan, Kashmir and the US needs to be exposed,” Sering alleged.Such remarks from Sering and several other Pakistani expats came during an interaction of two Special Envoy of Prime Minister on Kashmir — Mushahid Hussain Syed and Shazra Mansab — at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council, a top American think-tank.Ahmar Musti Khan, who said he is a US citizen who migrated from “Pakistan-occupied Balochistan”, said Kashmir “pales” in comparison to what the Pakistan military and security forces are doing against its own people in Balochistan.“Your army and ISI is the problem. Please acknowledge that,” Khan said. He alleged that 6,000 Baloch people have been killed and dumped. PTI

India criticises UNSC for not banning Azhar

India criticises UNSC for not banning Azhar

New Delhi: India on Thursday hit out at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for being unable to take a decision to ban Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar after China extended its technical hold on the issue for three more months. For India, the frustration stems from the fact that China has once again managed to save Pakistan by ensuring that the UN ban on Azhar is deferred despite the fact that the UN has already declared the JeM a terrorist organisation. tns

 


Military service to be considered for earned leave

Chandigarh, October 5
The state government has decided that the period of military service would be counted for the purpose of computing earned leave. The casual leave will also be admissible on the subsequent appointment of an ex-serviceman in any department of the state government.
An official spokesman said a decision to this effect had been taken keeping in view the fact that ex-servicemen joined the government service at a mature age after putting in long service in the Army and their social and family liabilities were rather pressing. All administrative secretaries, heads of departments, Deputy Commissioners and sub-divisional officers (Civil), registrars of universities and managing directors, chief administrators of boards and corporations in the state had been asked to comply with the instructions. — TNS


Kejri made headlines in Pak:BJP slams Kejriwal, Cong for questioning surgical strikes

BJP slams Kejriwal, Cong for questioning surgical strikes
Blasts Kejriwal. ANI

Vibha SharmaTribune News ServiceNew Delhi, October 4

The BJP on Tuesday slammed Delhi Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) convener Arvind Kejriwal and Congress leaders for “creating doubts” in the minds of people about the capabilities of the Indian Army.Addressing a press conference here, Union minister Ravi Shakar Prasad asked Congress president Sonia Gandhi to clarify if she stood by the statements issued by her party leaders like P Chidambaram.

He said Kejriwal had made headlines in Pakistan and was doing a great disservice to the country by questioning the recent surgical strikes.The chief minister of an Indian state had cast aspersions on the integrity of the army and damaged its morale, he claimed.Prasad asked the AAP and Congress not to demoralise the Army.

BJP Slams Cong leaders too for doubting Army’s efficiency

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, October 4

The BJP today hit back at AAP and the Congress for questioning the authenticity of surgical strikes by the Army in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).The ruling party, which asked senior minister Ravi Shankar Prasad to corner Opposition leaders asking the Modi government to “provide proof” of the strikes, questioned Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal whether he knew that he made the headlines in Pakistan newspapers with “his painful and unfortunate remarks”.The saffron party also targeted Congress leaders P Chidambaram and Sanjay Nirupam over their comments on the issue. Prasad asked Congress president Sonia Gandhi to clarify if Chidambaram’s views were a reflection of her party’s opinion on the Army.To Kejriwal, he said, “At a time when the whole nation is speaking in one voice, the Chief Minister of an Indian state has said something that has given Pakistani media and people a chance to question the Army action. There cannot be more painful and unfortunate thing.”“The Delhi CM should answer whether he believes in the Army or not? Politics is different, but nothing should be said that demoralises our Army and makes it feel humiliated,” the BJP leader said. “It was most painful and unfortunate that the AAP leader was in Pakistani media headlines today as his remarks yesterday gave it a chance to question the Army’s claim. If Pakistani media is saying something, why the CM of an Indian state is being influenced and seeking proof,” he said. He said while India has been “successful in isolating Pakistan politically and diplomatically, but Kejriwal is being guided by Pakistani media reports”.Sources in the government said India would provide proof, but at a place and time of its choice.Why BJP is scared…I have supported the PM, applauded the Army. Pakistan is spreading the propaganda across the world and international media is running this that surgical strike did not take place. I had only appealed to the PM that a befitting reply should be given to Pakistan. If I said that we have to counter Pakistan’s false propaganda then why is the BJP so rattled and scared? — Arvind Kejriwal, delhi cm

Govt under pressure to release proof of surgical strikes

Simran Sodhi

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, October 4

Pressure is being gradually built on the government to release proof of surgical strikes conducted across the Line of Control (LoC). It is not just Opposition parties here that are demanding the government to release some proof to authenticate its claims, some international media houses are also acting sceptical.Starting with Pakistan, which has denied from the get go that India conducted these strikes, The Washington Post has reported from the ground that residents of the Bhimber, Chamb and Sahma districts adjoining the LoC have denied seeing any people or movement across the LoC.In another story run by The New York Times from Kashmir, residents of the Mandhole village are also quoted as being doubtful of the surgical strikes with some villagers openly claiming that Indian soldiers never crossed the LoC and there was only cross-border fire exchange.Even the reports carried by CNN and Al Jazeera are not very favourable to India’s position. The BBC is one of the media houses whose reporters the Pakistan army had taken to the LoC to show that the Indian claims of a surgical strike were false and the BBC report from the Pakistani side of the LoC seems to belie the Indian claims.The fact that the Pakistan army took local and foreign media to Baghsar and Tatta Pani, two of the areas where India claims to have hit in a surgical strike, and apparently showed them proof to the contrary should be a worrisome fact for India.For India, international credibility is important and though Pakistan’s doubts are always easy to dismiss as being mere hitting back at India, the reports of credible international media houses will be harder to ignore.Most Opposition parties in India, including AAP and some factions of the Congress, are also demanding some evidence of surgical strikes by India. The government is soon likely to face a situation where it will have to release some evidence to back its claims.The good part for India is that most nations of the world have not criticised it for conducting these strikes with many even terming them as counter-terror operations. So the goodwill of the international community stays with India, but as questions are raised about the authenticity of the claims, it might be a good idea to put out evidence quickly and end the debate.


Russia welcomes surgical strikes

New Delhi, October 3

Days after it asked Islamabad to take “effective” steps to stop the activities of terrorist groups on its territory, Russia today said it “welcomes” the surgical strikes by India as every country has a right to defend itself.Russia’s Ambassador to New Delhi Alexander M Kadakin said his country had always been with India in fighting cross-border terrorism. “Greatest human rights violations take place when terrorists attack military installations and peaceful civilians in India. We welcome surgical strikes. Every country has the right to defend itself,” Russian embassy quoted Kadakin as having told a news channel.  He said India didn’t have to worry about Russia-Pakistan military exercise as it did not take place in PoK. — PTI

United over surgical strikes

Vote politics can cut short political consensus

Other than Rahul Gandhi’s left-handed compliment to Narendra Modi on his “first PM-like action in two and a half years”, political support across the board for the surgical strikes has been unqualified and unequivocal. Even Arvind Kejriwal has found a reason to laud Modi’s “decisiveness”. In a delayed response the Delhi Chief Minister has said: “I may have 100 differences with the PM, but I salute him for his approach towards Pakistan.” The commendable display of political unity at home is in sharp contrast to the initial political infighting across the border that saw Imran Khan attacking Nawaz Sharif before the political parties rallied to the Prime Minister’s support. However, the display of unity across the political spectrum is fragile and the return to the usual politics of bickering and mudslinging can be hastened by acts or words of not so thoughtful leaders. It is evidently difficult for Amit Shah and his fellow travellers to resist for too long the temptation of using this sudden surge in goodwill for Modi to enhance the BJP’s electoral prospects in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.  In Punjab, the political peace already stands shattered. Capt Amarinder Singh has accused the Modi government of creating war hysteria and questioned the desirability of evacuating border villages. He says Chief Minister Badal should have resisted the Centre’s move that has put a large number of people in a situation of helplessness. There must be valid reasons for the Home Ministry’s abrupt move but the battle-weary residents’ queries on the urgency of unsettling their lives should have been addressed. They see no military movement or signs of a possible conflict. The evacuation could have been better handled, better timed and better explained. However, while speaking and working for those displaced, both the Captain and Badal  also see them as voters. One is trying to pin the blame for their present plight on someone in the ruling camp and the other is trying for sympathy votes by listening to public grievances — Badal’s favourite pastime and tried political tool. The familiar political blame game can revive in other states too.

Indo-Pak tensions

No cure if basic causes remain untouched

India and Pakistan are engaged in a complex duel that is not destined to produce a victor. The squabbling parties will at one point walk away claiming victory over the other. They began matching wits after India abandoned its strategy of launching retaliatory strikes under a veil of deniability. An extremely slick presentation about India admitting to crossing over into Pakistan to avenge the Uri killings was wrapped in carefully planned bouts of diplomatic sabre-rattling. A good cop-bad cop routine was also set in motion. Immediately after the attacks, Modi played the statesman in Kerala, while Sushma Swaraj threw the cutlery at the UN. Now, the Prime Minister speaks of the ill-effects of war while his Defence Minister talks up the option for escalation.Pakistan is equally adept at the game of psychological warfare that keeps the adversary at bay, declaims its innocence and utilises the time to regroup or de-escalate.  The only fly in the ointment is that this war of words may win back the domestic constituency that the liberals were unable to match. But it leaves the basic discord unaddressed. It now seems that both sides are moving towards a conversation.  Simultaneously, the potential for restraint on both sides could break down if the continuing hostilities on the line of control and the attack on the army’s Baramulla camp doesn’t remain a solitary instance.Even if the discussion between the NSAs gives way to back-channel talks, the Modi government will end up looking like its predecessors. Its only feather for three attacks on its territory will be the publicly acknowledged army foray across the border. Pakistan has vigorously challenged even that. As snow begins to inhibit troop mobility, both sides will settle into an uneasy truce.  After the dust has settled, questions will be asked about when and how will India address the basic issue of Kashmir? And what are its options, if there is a bigger attack on an army camp? Only the naïve will believe that Pakistan has been chastened by a single night of small arms’ firing even if it took place in its territory.

Behind the scenes: How India went about planning ‘surgical strikes’ after the Uri attack

Behind the scenes: How India went about planning 'surgical strikes' after the Uri attack

After 18 soldiers were killed in the attack on the Army camp in Uri on September 18, the government made up its mind that it could not be business as usual with Pakistan, conversations with top defence, intelligence and diplomatic officials indicate.

Areas that are generally used to infiltrate militants across the Line of Control were studied. Around ten sites were identified across the LoC as possible targets. The military operations directorate finally chose four: Bhimber and Hot Springs in the Poonch-Rajouri sector, Leepa opposite Baramulla and Kel that faces the Kupwara sector.

The government decided that a strike would be carried out only if it detected plans to infiltrate militants across these four sectors. The Research and Analysis Wing chief and his key officer in charge of Pakistan were asked to gather intelligence from the ground, while the technical intelligence agency, the National Technical Research Organisation, was asked to monitor satellite imagery to detect any movement of the sort associated with infiltration bids.

Both agencies reported activity from these sectors, helping the army’s military operations directorate to firm up its plans to carry out its strikes by Tuesday. While strikes across the LoC have been carried out in the past, this was the first time that so much intelligence wherewithal was pressed into service to plan for the operations.

The Indian Army’s 25th Division in Rajouri on the Jammu axis, 19th Division in Baramulla and the 28th Division in Kupwara were designated as the formations that would help stage this combined operation involving Special Forces teams with artillery and missile units, military officials said. Four teams from the two Special Forces units had been in the designated areas days in advance, in anticipation of the raids.

The strikes and after

In the early hours of Thursday, four teams from two Indian Army Special Forces units quietly slipped across the Line of Control in four places to carry out “surgical strikes”, according to informed officials. Between 18 to 30 militants and two Pakistani soldiers were killed in the cross-LoC raids, as per initial reports.

The strikes were made public by the Joint Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs, Vikas Swarup, along with the Director General of Military Operations, Lt Gen Ranbir Singh, at a press conference on Thursday morning. The last time India saw a joint press conference by the ministries of defence and external affairs was during the Kargil war in 1999, when Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee was heading the National Democratic Alliance government.

The decision to announce the surgical strikes was taken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security on Thursday morning. The meeting was called after the army communicated to the government that the operation was successful.

While one of the Special Forces units is a veteran of similar operations in Jammu & Kashmir, the other unit was converted a decade ago and is relatively new. Four teams from the two battalions were transported by military helicopters to the launch areas a few days ago to ensure operational secrecy as well as to give them time to plan for the raids, senior military officials said.

Even the local military commanders were kept in the dark and only the Divisional Commanders were briefed in the initial stages, with the Northern Army Commander designated as the military commander on ground. Some of these plans were firmed up when the army chief, General Dalbir Singh Suhag visited Northern Command after the Uri attack.

In New Delhi, the National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval held several meetings with the three service chiefs to ensure that the military had adequate “actionable intelligence” to carry out the strikes. Other major military formations in the Punjab and Rajasthan sectors were briefed on Wednesday, in case the surgical strikes led to an escalation.

The Indian Air Force and Naval chiefs were instructed to keep their forces on high alert in case Pakistan reacted to the planned strikes. In fact, all the villages within 10 kms of the international border have been evacuated as a precautionary measure to ensure that the Indian Army could react to any Pakistani escalation in this sector. The daily flag-lowering beating retreat ceremony at the Wagah border was also called off as soon as the surgical strikes were announced in Delhi.

Actionable intelligence

These surgical strikes are not the first of their kind that India has carried out across the LoC. While the Vajpayee government took a clear decision not to allow the Indian forces to cross the LoC during the Kargil war, Indian Special Forces carried out several raids between 2000 and 2003. However, after the November 2003 ceasefire, such raids had been called off. Some Special Forces raids were renewed after 2012 when Pakistani troops raided Indian army posts and beheaded Indian soldiers in some cross-LoC operations.

Most of the earlier operations were local military actions, held either at the Corps or Divisional level, with local intelligence units being assigned with gathering information before strikes. This time, the R&AW was specifically tasked by the National Security Advisor to gather actionable intelligence, which could be used to carry out pinpoint strikes with minimum casualties. A conscious decision was also taken to target militants rather that the Pakistani army to ensure that the situation did not escalate. The R&AW chief and his key team that works on Pakistan under an Additional Secretary spent days poring over reports and gathering intelligence that would finally shape the surgical strikes, conversations with officials revealed.

“We have had strikes earlier, but those were mostly local,” Lieutenant General Hardev Singh Lidder, a former Chief of Integrated Defence Staff and a veteran Special Forces officer told Scroll.in. “This is the first time that strikes were carried out as a national policy, which is significant.”

Veteran Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad, who attended an All-Party meeting called by the government on Thursday evening, told news channels that Indian troops had “returned safely” after the operation, expressing satisfaction that Special Forces had carried out the raids, working closely with Indian intelligence.

Lieutenant General Ranbir Singh also called up his Pakistani counterpart, Major General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, who had taken over recently as Director General of Military Operations after his predecessor was promoted as a Corps Commander, to inform him that India had struck at militants preparing to cross the LoC and was prepared to do so again if there were further attempts, according to military officials.

Information warfare

The decision to go public with a high-profile joint official briefing by top defence and external affairs ministry officials was taken by the prime minister on inputs from the National Security Advisor. The decision was, in fact, bolstered by a call from the American National Security Advisor, Susan Rice, to her Indian counterpart Ajit Doval on Thursday morning, that was also prompted by the Indian action across the LoC. The idea was to send out a military and diplomatic message to the international community that New Delhi would no longer be held back by “strategic restraint” in the eventuality of further attacks.

The Indian ambassador had been briefed to inform the US State Department about the raids once it was complete and Rice called up Doval to ensure that there was no further escalation. Doval assured her that New Delhi would not take any further action if Islamabad did not escalate matters, according to government officials who were privy to the call. He also asked her to convey to Pakistan that India would be prepared to meet any eventuality.

In some ways, as a senior diplomat described the phone conversation between the two National Security Advisors, India was calling the Pakistani military’s bluff. It was also pointed out that American Special Forces had carried out a raid on Abbottabad to kill Osama Bin Laden in 2011.

The Indian military action is “legitimate in the eyes of international law”, said Supreme Court advocate and Constitutional expert, Menaka Guruswamy. “It allows for surgical strikes against terror cells, including preemptive strikes, especially if [a] host [nation] has been warned previously,” she told Scroll.in.

It was also decided at the Cabinet Committee on Security meeting that besides informing other political leaders, the Army chief would also give a more detailed briefing to former chiefs and army veterans who write in the press regularly, to ensure that the narrative was consistent and factual.

In the coming days, it is almost certain that India will also withdraw the Most Favoured Nation status that was given to Pakistan. India will also intensify its diplomatic push, this time backed by a military resolve, to press for isolating Pakistan until it agrees to cease any further terror strikes.


Surgical strikes & after

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain
The surgical strikes by the Indian Army across the LoC on the terrorist camps have created an awareness of India as a hard power, unafraid to defend its terrain. With retribution as a new paradigm, ground rules defining India-Pak ties have changed.

Surgical strikes & after
Pakistan is in denial mode because it cannot own nurturing terrorists on its soil. Pakistan does not want to be seen harbouring anti-India terrorists. The strong message delivered to Pakistan will definitely have a ripple effect. PTI

It is not as if it is all over bar the cheering. In fact the successful surgical strikes across the LoC by the Indian Army is an event which may be considered the trigger for a new phase of confrontation between India and Pakistan, possibly characterised by  wholly new strategies which will be tested over time and refined. However, for now we first need to compliment the Army and the political leadership for the bold decisions, apt information handling, slick execution and effective post-event management.As one writes, the doubts about the veracity of the Army’s claims have started gathering weight. Specific questions are being asked and Pakistan’s experienced Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) is sparing no efforts in projecting that it is all a hoax. ISPR has good reasons to do so. The Pakistan Army Chief, General Raheel Sharif retires in six weeks and the strong man cannot be seen to go in disgrace. This may well be a trigger for Raheel to extend himself in office or do something spectacular before he bows out, if he does decide to go. Whatever ISPR is doing is to give the Pakistan leadership time to contemplate and see through the maze of complexity. There is no reason for us in India to disbelieve our Army. Those who know the LoC well will confirm that undeclared trans-LoC operations have continued since many years, with or without sanction of the Government of India. This time it was necessary for the Government to be transparent in its sanction to the Army as the messaging was not military alone but politico-strategic. That can’t be without a holistic government involvement because the escalation is likely to be much higher than when a deniable surgical strike is launched for only military retribution.  Two to three kilometers ahead of the defenses in any defensive system is considered in military terms as the area of influence. Tactical commanders are routinely armed with maximum intelligence on topography and layout of the adversary’s defences as also the information about the population within the area of influence. The conduct of a raid is part of military teaching but when the degree of success has to be fool proof reliance is placed on Special Forces (SFs), with total support of the local troops through whom the launch is executed. September each year is also about enhanced attempts at infiltration which involves concentration of a larger quantum of terrorists at terror launch pads. There is a regular flow of intelligence on this. The possibility of the US providing India useful information gained by satellite surveillance is also there. The credibility of the Indian Army’s claims will be finally cemented if there is a credible Pakistani response. Even without that, India’s act of retribution for Uri will remain well recognised.The muted international response is not because of credibility of claims. It is just that it is a new domain to transparently see robust Indian action. The world is not in a hurry and will take time to understand the future dynamics of possible escalation in a zone which it is fully aware has nuclear weapons with both sides.While all are advising the Indian leadership on the possibility of a Pakistani response it is being taken for granted that such an action will be launched; a quid pro quo. From experience one can recount that the most likely action will be by a Border Action Team which is a mix of regulars and well-trained terrorists. A single action will not meet the requirement of this response where the benchmark has been set much higher. Will the deep state wish to keep it deniable or transparent; the latter more likely following the loop of escalation. Action against the Indian Army posts on the LoC itself is always an option for the BATs but the casualties they will suffer in a state of high alert will be high. However, building overwhelming strength to smother a smaller LoC post is always a feasibility and many such posts exist without much mutual support. To avoid casualties on themselves BATs are more likely to target patrols and logistics parties by day. Predictability about these is difficult and chances of the adversary gaining surprise are extremely high. If such a set of actions is launched as response we may well witness a phase where the cross-border exchange of small arms, mortars and artillery fire may be replaced by more frequent trans-LoC raids. The chances of escalation from such situations are much higher. That confirms the belief that we can ill afford to go slow in the paradigm of diplomacy just because one element of the military option has been played. In fact, the need for even more robust diplomacy is now felt and the same must not be restricted to New Delhi itself. This is the time to undertake a campaign with high-profile emissaries reaching out to important capitals of the world to in bring to bear India’s influence in their thinking and isolate Pakistan.As we wait and watch the unfolding of events over the next few days and both sides go into huddles on the next response the one area which is finding itself the news focus is the Kashmir hinterland. Kashmiri leaders have expressed their reservations about the actions by the Army because an escalation harms the border population and takes the focus away from Kashmir’s other myriad other problems. For the current, as the durbar prepares to move to Jammu the LoC and the border are taking the attention away from the stone throwers and the curfew. The Army, to its credit, is concentrating on both fronts very deftly,   as its operations for moral domination in South Kashmir progress, the sanctity of the LoC is being ensured and now retribution becomes a new paradigm.The writer, a former General Officer Commanding of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps, is a Fellow with the Delhi Policy Group.


Many border residents stay put Farmers say crop at harvest stage, Punjab not ‘forcing anyone’

Many border residents stay put
A border area villager comes out after looking at a military bunker near Chak Allah Bakash village on Friday. AFP

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, September 30

Despite the government order that villages within 10 km of the border with Pakistan be evacuated, most residents of Punjab’s border belt have chosen to stay put. Farmers say their paddy crop is at the harvesting stage and they will not move out.Residents of Pathankot, Gurdaspur, Amritsar, Taran Taran, Ferozepur and Fazilka villages, who had moved to houses of kin or to relief camps in schools and other government buildings, have returned to their homes.However, a large number, mostly women and children, went back to the camps in the evening fearing they could be caught in cross-fire. “People kept moving in and out of the relief camps all day long. We are not forcing anybody to evacuate,” said Chief Secretary Sarvesh Kaushal.Apart from serving food, the government carried out a fumigation drive at the camps to prevent the outbreak of dengue and chikungunya. Punjab Revenue and Public Relations Minister Bikram Singh Majithia visited the border areas in Amritsar and took stock of the make-shift arrangements for the residents.Senior Aam Aadmi Party leader HS Phoolka criticised the government for “creating unnecessary panic”, pointing out that no such evacuation had been ordered in Gujarat and Rajasthan villages sharing border with Pakistan.Hundreds of villages along the border in Jammu and near the Line of Control in Kashmir are also being evacuated. “Our top priority is to move women and children to government buildings, guest houses and marriage halls,” said Nirmal Singh, Deputy CM of Jammu and Kashmir.