ROLE PLAY: New Delhi needs to be in tune with the positive power shift in the region.
MK Bhadrakumar
WITHOUT doubt, a new criticality has arisen in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, but as can happen, ‘sweet are the uses of adversity’ — to borrow from Shakespeare. There are both internal and external factors at work here. The contradictions in the political situation in J&K may ease if a level playing field is made available for all political parties and groups to make a new beginning. It doesn’t have to be the case that things move from the frying pan into the fire. One important reason for expressing cautious optimism is that in the external environment, an opportunity is at hand to take a road less travelled by, which could make all the difference. This involves engaging with Pakistan. The political dynamics within J&K invariably have an external dimension and not engaging with Pakistan is untenable. No one probably knows this better than the incumbent Governor NN Vohra in Srinagar, given his vast experience in statecraft. During the transition ahead, it will help matters a great deal if the disconnect between the efforts to shore up internal security and engagement with Pakistan is addressed. Of course, a hugely consequential electoral battle is looming ahead in the country in less than a year, which makes it obligatory for political parties to engage in grandstanding, but again, a non-partisan eye cannot miss the point that the reactions to the latest events in J&K suggest that no one is in any real combative mood. In fact, the mood is sombre. There are no victors here. Pakistan was not even dragged into media discourse. A question is often put why engage with Pakistan at all, given the past experience? But then, that is a self-serving digression, neither fair nor honest, because engaging Pakistan was never a substitute for doing homework that was also needed on our part, which was never quite forthcoming, for one reason or another. Yet, the past serves a purpose insofar as the scars remind us that we did survive our deepest wounds and it is not only an accomplishment, but an enduring reminder that the heavy toll that life took left us more resilient, and perhaps, better equipped to face the present. The ruins of a stupendous past are all around us today. Second, a nation never replays its history. Despite our dogmas regarding Pakistan, that country of yesteryear no longer exists. Pakistan has been in transition with a searing knowledge that the past cannot be altered and is fixed, and the present is its reflecting actuality, while the future remains undefined and nebulous until a part of the present becomes a part of the past so that an unrealised future can become the new present. Plainly put, what is playing out in the Hindu Kush in recent weeks testify to a rethink in Pakistan. Curiously, this rethink is attributed to none other than army chief Gen Qamar Bajwa. With an interim government training its energies on the conduct of the forthcoming election, General Bajwa is having a free hand to withdraw the sticky tentacles of past Afghan policies from the present so that a future dawns for Pakistan in terms of regional connectivity, a flourishing economy and a nation at peace with itself and its neighbours. From the Indian perspective, therefore, it is hugely consequential that General Bajwa has held out positive signals for better relations with New Delhi. The Modi government seems to appreciate it. The dramatic happenings of the past few weeks testify to the winds of change sweeping Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, especially the Eid festivities with Taliban fighters and security forces taking ‘selfies’ in cities and towns, and secondly, the killing in Afghanistan of the Pakistan Taliban chief, Mullah Fazlullah, variously described as the mastermind of Pakistan’s suicide culture, in a US drone strike. The latter is particularly important, as evident from Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s eagerness to personally transmit to General Bajwa the fulfilment of a long-standing Pakistani demand. Ghani expects him to reciprocate. Succinctly put, China’s initiative to create a trilateral forum to foster amity between Afghanistan and Pakistan has gained traction. In fact, China and Pakistan have agreed to look at extending their $57 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan. To be sure, India-China-Pakistan triangle always brought to bear the regional backdrop. Therefore, we need to comprehend that Chinese policies too cannot be stereotyped through the prism of a bygone era. Regional stability and security providing the external environment in which development objectives are optimally realised becomes a top priority for Chinese policies. Thus, China is acting as a moderating influence on Pakistan. On the other hand, if there was a past when China was indifferent toward India, it is far from the case today. India’s impressive growth is taken seriously by the Chinese. All evidence suggests that despite the drift in the Sino-Indian relationship in the most recent years, the Chinese perception regarding PM Modi remain positive and his reform agenda has consistently drawn praise from Chinese commentators — underscoring faith in him that he is a strong leader who can take difficult decisions leading to a paradigm shift in Sino-Indian ties. Above all, China hopes that a bonding with India — ‘China India Plus’ — can be a game changer in the prevailing international milieu, characterised by anti-globalisation trends, protectionism and growing pressure from the entrenched West, which is chary of redistribution of power in favour of emerging powers. It is highly significant that in a speech last Monday in Delhi, outlining Beijing’s strategy toward India, Chinese ambassador Luo Zhaohui singled out the idea of creating a new platform of China-India-Pakistan leaders’ meeting under the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Taking into account foreign minister Wang Yi’s recent remarks after the SCO summit in Qingdao that membership of India and Pakistan will strengthen the fight against terrorism and promote India’s connectivity with Central Asia, one can quite figure out the Chinese intentions. The bottom line is that China sees it as in its self-interest that India-Pakistan tensions do not pose a contradiction in its efforts to boost the content and inject new verve into its relations with India. Interestingly, Ambassador Luo also revisited the long-standing proposal on signing a ‘Treaty of Good Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation’ with India. Suffice to say, it will be to India’s advantage if an imaginative approach toward the situation in J&K could run parallel with a diplomatic track attuned to the positive power shift in the region. The writer is a former ambassador
