The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has projected Pakistan’s economy to expand by an annual average of 2.9% in 2018/19 till 2022/23, compared with 5.4% growth in the previous years.

The advisory issued by the EIU comes amidst Pakistan’s ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which commenced on November 7th and are expected to conclude by November 20th. Its not going to be an easy task for Pakistan to get an IMF bailout package as the United States holds the largest voting share in the Fund’s decision-making process.

Pakistan has had a history of economic failures due to inefficient govt policies that have always been directed towards targeting India in the form of either terrorism or a covert economic war by injecting fake currencies in the financial system. Instead of focusing on education, infrastructure and human development it drew closer to religious Islamic fanaticism and became a hot bed for Islamic Terror.

Pakistan is currently in a financial mess where it cannot stay afloat without bailout packages from China and the UAE and it still dreams of snatching Kashmir away from a country like India which is the world’s fastest growing economy with a defence budget of $52.5-bn, more than what the United Kingdom spends annually.

India’s military capabilities under PM Modi’s leadership are advancing rapidly towards challenging China in the 21st century leaving Pakistan so far behind that it has virtually become insignificant in the Asian power balance.

Pakistan’s current account deficit widened by 43 percent to $18 billion in the last fiscal year and its budget deficit has ballooned to 6.6 percent of economic output, creating a financial crunch that economists say will lead to a collapse if it doesn’t get Financial AID.

India should target Pakistan’s export markets and completely annihilate the remaining little industry that it has. This will lead to a faster guaranteed economic collapse and force Pakistan to further drop its defence budget.

Pakistan has not imported any major weapons system that can threaten India since the last batch of F-16s given in AID by the United States. All it relies on currently is cheap sub-standard Chinese Fighter Jets and a few Drones. At this rate, Pakistan should become a Banana Republic in less than a decade.

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Article written by Darshil R Patel exclusively for www.DefenceNews.in
Bsc. in CASFX (U.K.)
Location : Mumbai
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Bengaluru, November 7

Amid a political slugfest over the Rafale fighter jet deal, state-run HAL’s Chairman and Managing Director R Madhavan on Wednesday said the aircraft manufacturing company is contending not to be an offset partner of any original equipment manufacturer (OEM).

But it would like to be a “total technology transfer partner” for production of aircraft, he said.

Madhavan’s reply came when he was asked to clarify on one among many charges that defence PSU Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) had been deprived of an offset contract from the Rafale deal.

“We are not contending to be an offset partner to any OEM, rather HAL would like to be a total technology transfer partner for production of aircraft,” he told PTI here.

He also said HAL’s basic focus was on manufacturing of aircraft, helicopters, associated accessories and their repair and overhaul, and not in garnering offset business.

Production of aircraft from transfer of technology is totally different from offsets, according to him.

Some portion of the offset business from various other programmes were being administered at the HAL, but it does not form a major business, Madhavan said.

“HAL will continue to get these offset business,” he added.

The Congress recently accused the government of forcing Dassault Aviation to make Reliance Defence its offset partner for the Rs 58,000 crore deal to purchase 36 Rafale jets.

It alleged that the government was helping the Anil Ambani group get a contract worth Rs 30,000 crore from the deal.

However, the Reliance Group, in a statement, has said Dassault Aviation’s investment in Reliance Airport Developers Limited has no link with the Rafale fighter jet deal, and has accused the Congress of resorting to “blatant lies” for political gains.

Reliance has also said the Indian government, the French government, Dassault and Reliance have clarified on multiple occasions that there was no offset contract for Rs 30,000 crore to Reliance as alleged by the Congress.

Earlier, in an interaction with the media on November 2, Madhavan had said that the HAL was completely out of the Rafale deal, but at one point of time, it was part of it, which did not kick-off.

“We are not in that (Rafale) business now. We were in it at one point of time. It is a direct purchase by the government and (I) cannot make any comments on pricing and policy changes,” he had said.

Escalating his campaign against the Modi government over the Rafale deal, Congress president Rahul Gandhi last month accused it of destroying the “strategic asset”, state-run aerospace company HAL, and told its employees that “Rafale is your right”.

In an interaction, Gandhi had sought to reach out to present and former HAL employees, alleging that “temples of modern India are being attacked and destroyed; we cannot allow it to be done.” The Congress has also been demanding answers on why the HAL was not involved in the deal as finalised during the UPA regime.

However, the BJP and Reliance Defence have dismissed all the allegations as false. – PTI

MK Bhadrakumar
Former ambassador

Albert Einstein once said, ‘In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.’ The difficulties that have been piled on India in the recent past, for no real fault of its own, by the US are turning out to be a wake-up call — especially the arrogant, intolerable American demands that Delhi must curb its friendly ties with Russia and Iran.

The grit to push ahead with the S-400 ABM deal with Russia became a celebrated case. India made its payments in roubles and sidestepped the dollar system, calling the American bluff. Meanwhile, new thinking appeared to revive the old rupee-rouble clearing system in economic transactions, characteristic of the Soviet era. Exploratory talks have begun. The two countries are rich with experience as regards the charms and inadequacies of barter trade. Accumulation of currencies was an embarrassing feature.

But then, conditions are vastly different today. Russia’s ‘Czarist instincts’ have reappeared with a vengeance and the great Russian barons of the 19th century are once again on the move, wading into the world market, scouting for business in far-flung regions — Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, China, Turkey, South Korea, Poland, Japan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, South Korea, US, etc. Washington felt the pressure to sanction Russia’s United Company RUSAL, the world’s largest aluminium company by primary production output. With foreign currency reserves of $460 billion, Russian business also has investible surplus in expanding operations in the world market. (Russia manages a budget surplus if oil price is in $50-$55 bpd range, whereas, the current price is around $75 a barrel Brent.)      

India, on the other hand, is in a period of high growth. The economy is luring foreign investment and is slated to be a big guzzler of energy. A case in point is the acquisition of Essar Oil by the Russian consortium led by oil major Rosneft in a deal worth $12.9 billion last year. According to reports, Essar is now considering approaching the Russian state-controlled Inter RAO, a diversified energy major with operations in generation, transmission and power trade, to become an investor in its 2×600 MW Mahan thermal power project in Madhya Pradesh. Similarly, the Russian financial group VTB is intent on investing in Essar Steel, the fourth largest steel producer in India and undergoing bankruptcy proceedings.

These are only tell-tale signs of a long-awaited breakthrough in India-Russia economic relations sailing into view, finally. Suffice to say, with the backlog of the experience and lessons out of the Soviet era, India and Russia will be wise to highlight investments in any rupee-rouble framework they may negotiate to counter the ‘weaponisation’ of dollar by Washington as a geopolitical tool. Arguably, the future of Indian-Russian economic relations lies in investments where there is tremendous complementarity. Such a panorama never really existed in the Soviet era. 

Take, for example, the energy sector. Apart from the upstream investments India is making in the Russian oilfields, there is vast scope for Russian investments in the downstream sector in India. Thus, Essar Oil owned a retail network of Essar-branded fuel stations, which were steadily increasing their share on the growing Indian market. Now, in the 12 months since Rosneft’s takeover in March last year, the number of Essar fuel stations expanded by 20 per cent to reach 4,200. Rosneft’s short-term plan is to expand Essar’s fuel-station network to 6,000.

Again, the Nayara Energy Refinery in Vadinar, Gujarat (Essar’s oil company which is now owned and operated by Rosneft), has docking facilities, including an SBM capable of handling vessels up to 3,50,000 DWT with a capacity of 25mtpa (million tons per annum), tankages with interconnecting pipelines of 20mtpa capacity, marine product dispatch capacity of 12mtpa and rail-car and truck-loading facilities. Trust Rosneft to multiply its investments in Essar. Rosneft’s plans stem from the ‘big picture’ — far-sighted visions of the immense potentials of the Indian energy market. Rosneft and the National Iranian Oil Company have signed a road map on the implementation of ‘strategic’ projects in Iran with total investments worth $30 billion.

In the Soviet era, we had a USSR-Iraq-India triangle operating in the ambit of the rupee-rouble trading system, which proved beneficial. Can we now create a Russia-Iran-India triangle with a similar ‘win-win’ potential? To be sure, the government has thoughtfully timed the trilateral meeting on the India-Iran-Russia International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) on November 23 in Delhi. Commerce and Industry Minister Suresh Prabhu has been quoted as saying to a visiting Russian delegation for stepping up investments and business between the two countries that ‘all issues (relating to INSTC) may be resolved in order to operationalise the route as early as possible’. Prabhu pointedly stressed that the corridor is an important Indian-Russian-Iranian initiative. INSTC is the shortest multimodal transportation route linking the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf via Iran to Russia and North Europe. The estimated capacity of the corridor is 20 to 30 million ton goods per year and will reduce time and cost by 30 to 40 per cent. Analysts are calling it the Suez Canal of the 21st century.

Free market theories disfavour the barter system, but these are extraordinary times, when a new payment system is necessary, not only to boost mutual trade and investments, but also to avoid being entrapped by self-serving US policies. Russia matters because it is a sheet anchor for India’s foreign policy. Equally, it is a balancer augmenting India’s strategic autonomy. Above all, it is intrinsically an economic partner with seamless potential. Smart geopolitics devolves upon geo-economics — or else, it becomes an esoteric affair bypassing India’s present stage of development. Giving primacy to job creation in the millions, in particular, ought to be the focus of our foreign policy.

Tribune News Service
Chandigarh, October 29

Setting aside the lateral shifting of an Air Marshal to the post of Director General Medical Services (Army), the Supreme Court on Monday directed that the senior-most officer in line, Lt Gen Manomoy Ganguly, be appointed to the said post.

On August 10, the government posted Air Marshal Rajvir Singh then DGMS (Air Force) as the DGMS (Army) in the rank of Lieutenant General. Medical officers are rotated amongst the three services and don the uniform and ranks of the service they are posted to.

This was challenged by Lt Gen Ganguly, recently promoted from the rank of Major General after a court battle, on grounds of seniority and merit. The issue of the appointment of DGMS (Army) has seen several rounds of litigation in the Armed Forces Tribunal and the apex court that had also resulted in the appointment of another Lieutenant General being quashed earlier.

“We are of the opinion that the process undertaken by the respondents in taking decision to appoint Air Marshal Rajvir Singh as DGMS (Army) does not stand judicial scrutiny. We are constrained to set aside the appointment,” a Bench comprising Justice AK Sikri and Justice Ashok Bhushan ruled.

Pointing out that the first fundamental error occurred in lateral shifting of Air Marshal Rajvir and considering his candidature along with others, the Bench said it was contrary to guidelines that permitted lateral shifting only in exceptional circumstances, which did not exist in the instant case.

Remarking that it failed to understand why the methodology of Overall Average Performance (OAP) was thought of by the Army Chief to adjudge comparative merit of officers in the fray when, concededly ACR grading has never been used as a criteria for posting of a Lieutenant General officer earlier, the Bench said the OAP mechanism was foreign to the Army’s selection guidelines.

The case

• On August 10, the government had posted Air Marshal Rajvir Singh, then DGMS (Air Force), as the DGMS (Army) in the rank of Lieutenant General
• This was challenged by Lt Gen Manomoy Ganguly, recently promoted from the rank of Major General after a court battle, on grounds of seniority and merit.

New Delhi, October 27

Congress president Rahul Gandhi today met a delegation of ex-servicemen and promised them to implement One Rank, One Pension (OROP) if his party was elected to power. He attacked the PM for “giving a gift of Rs 30,000 crore to inexperienced Anil Ambani in the Rafale deal, but not giving Rs 8,300 crore that would be enough to implement the OROP”.

“All ex-servicemen said the BJP government has not implemented the OROP. They also spoke about the situation in J&K, the non-strategic approach of the government, the divisions created there and the cost being paid by our soldiers. They also discussed Rafale. And these are connected,” Rahul said. — TNS

Dehradun, October 19

As part of the training schedule of the Gentlemen Cadets of Autumn term-2018, a cross country run was held at the prestigious Indian Military Academy (IMA) here Friday.

The event, which tests the limits of physical endurance, determination and willpower of the Gentleman Cadets, was flagged off by Commandant, IMA, Lt Gen S K Jha. The most colourful and awaited event of the academy saw the participation of 810 Gentlemen Cadets of the second and third terms running a course of approximately 12 km, a statement issued by the IMA here said. Keren Company of the Bhagat Batallion attained the first position with 742 points, while Basantar Company of the same Batallion got the second position with 706 points, it said. Jessore Company of the Manekshaw Battalion came third on difference of average score with 706 points, the statement said.

Gentleman Cadet (GC) Shivkant Yadav of the Alamein Company with a timing of 38.16 minutes got the first position, while GC Himanshu Kashyap of the Dograi Company and GC Abhishek Rai of the Alamein Company came second and third. — PTI

Pune (Maha), October 17

Four Army personnel have been booked for allegedly raping and molesting a 34-year-old speech and hearing-impaired woman employee of a military hospital here in Maharashtra in 2015, the police said Wednesday.

Besides the police, the Army too is conducting a court of inquiry against the four personnel, who also worked in the same military hospital at the time.

The alleged offence took place between January and June 2015 at the Military Hospital, Kirkee, in Pune’s Khadki suburb. The woman has been working at the facility since 2014.

“According to the woman’s complaint, she was on night duty (at the hospital) when she was allegedly raped by one of the accused, who at the time was posted at the hospital,” a senior police official said. When the survivor told another Army man about the incident, he initially told her that he would reprimand the “accused”. “But he too sought sexual favours from her by threatening her to make the message viral and allegedly raped her. After some days, two more personnel approached the woman and allegedly took advantage of her,” the police official said.

The woman, a Class IV employee at the hospital, had approached an NGO in Indore, Madhya Pradesh, earlier this year. The NGO subsequently approached the Indore police. On Tuesday night, the Indore police informed about the matter to their Pune counterparts, who have registered a case against the four personnel under IPC sections 376 (rape) and 354 (molestation), he said. — PTI

THERE is much excitement over the fourth meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and PM this year on the sidelines of next month’s G20 meeting in Argentina. Frequent meetings by themselves indicate a desire of both sides to turn the page over past acrimony. And Sino-Indian ties are brimming with differences. But do meetings resolve the acute mismatch of national interests? In four years as PM, Modi has averaged about four meetings with Xi every year, the same as in previous years. The difference though is in the two-day Wuhan interaction between the two. Rarely do two principals set aside two full days to understand each other’s motives during a critical period of global changes and adjustment.

The results have been trickling in. China began providing hydrological information of the Brahmaputra thus quelling apprehensions of a downstream India being caught unawares by increased flows; India has started exporting basmati rice as partial attempt to close the trade gap; and, the first Joint India-China Training Programme for Afghan diplomats was held recently. These developments can hardly be rated as path-breaking. Clearly there is a major distance to travel.

There are bigger knots to untie such as China blocking India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group or New Delhi’s opposition to the Belt and Road Initiative. Their resolution could hold the key for resolving existentialist issues blocking normal Sino-Indian ties — the border dispute and Dalai Lama’s presence in India. But that is without accounting for China’s leaning towards Pakistan and India’s intensity of security ties with the US, both anathemas to the other country. Or, their competition for natural resources and market in third countries. This explains Modi and Xi’s partiality to a gradualist approach that assumes change will come slowly, which is why they have planned another Wuhan-type interaction in India next year. The medium-term approach seems to avoid big-ticket outcomes and instead focus on greater understanding of the other, as they try to emerge as positive factors in the balance of global power.

Tribune News Service
New Delhi, October 4

A high-level Congress delegation on Thursday petitioned the CAG for the second time in 15 days and sought forensic audit of the Rafale deal between India and France.

In a memorandum to CAG Rajiv Mehrishi, the Congress appealed to the central auditor to undertake “his constitutional duty” and expose the facts of Rafale to enable parliament to take a view on the issue.

The Congress is simultaneously demanding a joint parliamentary committee probe into the matter.

Repeating the allegations it has been making in the Rafale matter, the Congress said the 36 jet deal compromised national security by cutting down on the jet order and also removing the transfer of technology clause for HAL in the original negotiations which the Congress-led UPA had started.

“It is our clear understanding that all the contours of this conspiracy, corruption, endangering of national security and crony capitalism can be uncovered only thorough a probe by the Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC). It is expected that the CAG which has a constitutional mandate and authority to scrutinise every document, in this case including original tender, understanding reached between Dassault and HAL and the arbitrary decision of the Prime Minister without any mandate from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) will undertake a forensic audit,” the memorandum said.

The delegation, comprising senior Congress leaders Ahmed Patel, Anand Sharma, Jairam Ramesh, RPN Singh and Randeep Surjewala, urged the CAG to “bring all facts on record to enable Parliament to fix accountability for the Rafale scam”.

The Congress had earlier met the CAG on this issue on September 19.