Defence outlay in the annual budget has once again belied expectations, pegged at Rs 3.18 lakh crores approximating to 1.5% of projected GDP, it is the lowest since the 1962 war. Pre-budget optimism was heightened as finance minister had piloted projections of the ministry of defence in her role as defence minister and it was natural to expect larger allocation since she knows the unsatisfactory state of inventory. Allocation marks 6.87% hike over the last budget’s revised estimates and barely caters for inflation. The only silver lining is waiving of basic customs duty on defence imports – likely to save Rs 25,000 crore, over five years. No wonder, the media has listed defence among losers’ category and treatment meted out as ‘blink and miss’ approach. Die-hard optimists can draw some solace from the government describing it as a budget with 10-year vision. It is hoped that experts will concurrently consider putting long-term defence planning and procurement back on rails to give the much-needed impetus to capability building and modernization.

The new defence minister, like his predecessors, had reiterated that financial constraints will not be allowed to impact capability building. On face value, this indeed seems very reassuring as all defence ministers and finance ministers maintain this position. While national consensus on macro issues alludes us, we have unanimity on assurances at least. The ‘feel good factor’ is further amplified with occasional booster dose provided by ill-informed media, heralding every ‘acceptance of necessity’ (AON) as induction. The AON actually is only the first step, more like starting the match. The conversion or strike rate of these for Army is as low as 30%. The Army on the average takes 30 to 40 AONs every year and every such announcement aided by media boosts ‘josh’ factor without sparing even an iota of ‘hosh’ or scrutiny for retracted and stalled AONs.

More importantly, the tortuous process between trials and price negotiations culminating into contract spans four to five years. Finally, the gestation of the equipment itself is limited by capacities and could be spread over another four to five years. Recently, an AON was granted for 464 Russian T-90 tanks leading to considerable muscle flexing on social and print media, aided by graphics, as if tanks were ready to roll down. It would have been more objective if flowchart of impending process and pitfalls were included in these reports.

In 2014, an outgoing Army Chief took a rather unprecedented step of flagging critical operational deficiencies, terming them as ‘hollowness’. Consequent to this letter and as points-man for capability building in the Army, I had to anchor hearing by Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence (PSCOD). We were literally put in the dock with real architects of this sorry state, bureaucrats (as mandated by the transaction of business rules), attending as observers. We heard oft-repeated assurances, the budget will not be allowed to impact defence modernization. Yet, in 2018, in another hearing, the same committee was given rude reality check, which spelt out that against stipulated equipment profile of Modern-30, Current-40 and Ageing-30, existing inventory was 8-24-68 mix and funds not even adequate to service committed liabilities.

The army had traditionally followed threat-based planning, which amounts to reactionary capability building to handle our likely adversaries and manage the hybrid war. This was revised to threat cum capability building, duly supported by mandated levels of deterrence, ‘punitive’ against Pakistan and ‘credible’ against China. Net assessment models had stipulated quantified comparative ratios, stipulating building up 1.5 to 1 superiority against Pakistan. Capability-based planning is more pertinent for catering for ambiguous or emerging threats like artificial intelligence, robotics, space and cyber warfare.

Notwithstanding, stated parameters, in effect, the Army has been following firefighting approach driven by operations branch rather than perspective planning. There are occasional welcome doses of demonstrative acquisition of force multipliers like Rafale, C-130j, Apache, S-400 and ULH through strategic government to government (FMS in American parlance) route. The Army has been forced to resort to emergency induction of ammunition, sniper and other rifles. With regional power aspirations and as a net provider of security, it is high time that we make our procurement system functional graduating to genuine capability-based planning backed by periodic net assessment audits. While ambiguity seems to be the currently favoured approach and is needed for a few surprise capabilities yet for stable deterrence, it is axiomatic to build transparency and demonstrate seriousness in capability building. The much-needed reform of creating a non-lapsing fund for capital acquisitions will alleviate our problems as towards close of the financial year, it becomes process driven scramble to book expenditure with the status of schemes often an overriding priority.

The current, 13th Army plan covers the period from 2017 to 2022 and even at the mid-term stage, it is still in the discussion stage. It is also learnt that current review is driven by fiscal pragmatism, wherein a number of schemes may reflect budgetary realities. To put it bluntly, the armed forces have been told to cut the coat as per cloth. For those, who are statistically inclined, 12th Army plan had approximately 700 schemes and this one may have only 300 schemes. While drafting a new plan, mandatory pre-plan review invariably shows slippages, hence, it is prudent to remain pragmatic in projections but the overall impact on capabilities must be deliberately considered. It may be worthwhile to take plan holiday for first three years of the current plan, recast and draw a well-considered plan in next six months and apply it from 2020 to 2025 with clearly defined targets and more liberal funding.

Two Indian Air Force (IAF) officers will face court-martial for the Mi-17 chopper crash in which six of its personnel were killed due to friendly fire by own missile system on February 27 over Srinagar. As many as four other officers will also face administrative action in the case which includes two Air Commodores (equivalent to Army Brigadiers) and two Flight Lieutenants (Captain equivalents in Army) for their respective roles in the entire case. “Two officers including a Group Captain and a Wing Commander would be tried by a court-martial for their lapses in the case due to which six IAF personnel were killed in friendly fire,” defence sources told news agency ANI. On the morning of February 27, when Pakistan counter-attacked in response to the Balakot airstrike, an IAF Mi-17 chopper crashed over Budgam area near Srinagar killing all six of its occupants. It was revealed that the chopper was hit by its own air defence system SPYDER deployed in Srinagar. The chopper of the Srinagar-based 154 Helicopter Unit crashed within 10 minutes of taking off even as a dogfight raged over 100 kilometres away between intruding Pakistani jets and the IAF, in which Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman was also involved. Six IAF personnel onboard and a civilian on the ground had lost their lives in the crash. Soon after taking over, newly-appointed IAF chief RKS Bhadauria had stated that the Mi-17 chopper crash on February 27 was a “big mistake” on part of the Air Force. Earlier, Bhadauria had said, “Court of Inquiry has completed and it was our mistake as our missile had hit our own chopper.” The fateful Mi-17 helicopter was shot down by an Indian missile when Indian air defences were on high alert following the February 26 Balakot airstrike that targetted a terrorist camp in Pakistan. The helicopter crashed near Budgam, killing all six Indian Air Force personnel on board. The helicopter was flown by squadron leader Siddharth Vashisht with other members squadron leader Ninad Mandvgane, Kumar Pandey, sergeant Vikrant Sehrawat, corporals Deepak Pandey and Pankaj Kuma

idrw.org .Read more at India No 1 Defence News Website http://idrw.org/2-iaf-officers-face-court-martial-4-others-administrative-action-for-shooting-down-of-mi-17-chopper/ .

Retired Army man Mohammad Sanaullah was kept at a detention camp in Assam last month as he failed to furnish evidence before a foreigners’ tribunal in the state to establish that he was Indian by birth, the Rajya Sabha was informed by Minister of State for Home G Kishan Reddy in a written reply. Sanaullah failed to furnish evidence before the tribunal to establish his linkage to his parentage on Indian soil prior to March 25, 1971, the House was informed. PTI

Increase defence outlay: Tewari

Anandpur Sahib MP Manish Tewari asked the government to allocate adequate budget for defence. He told the Lok Sabha that the spending on military was just 1.52 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which was the lowest in 58 years. India faces a two-front onslaught from Pakistan and China. The minister said China’s defence spending has been growing, while India’s dropping. TNS

Three days before Chinese President Xi Jinping was to land in Chennai, China sprang a surprise to infuse life into the informal summit he will hold with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Since the actual venue of Mamallapuram is quite a mouthful for the world at large, the Chennai Informal Summit, as it will be called, seemed headed to become a footnote in the diplomatic calendar of bilateral meetings. The bad blood between the two countries over the abrogation of Article 370 had created a stalemate till the Chinese Foreign Office spokesperson advised India and Pakistan to resolve their differences over J&K through dialogue.

For the first time since India effected the changes on August 5, Beijing dropped all references to the relevant UN Security Council resolutions. This reference is a red rag for India since it considers the Simla Agreement, which Pakistan has also signed, as the starting point for talks on J&K. The Chinese gesture does create a conducive environment for the two leaders to hold frank and unrestrained conversations with each other in order to remove the distrust and suspicion about each other’s policy choices. The first informal summit did produce a Chinese appreciation of India’s massive trade deficit and guidance to the two militaries to peacefully manage the border. But the Chinese stand on Kashmir nipped the shoots and stiffened India’s back to the extent that it upgraded its consultations with the Quad, an anti-China grouping, to the ministerial level.

At this moment, China cannot afford to antagonise India. Already grappling with unrest in Hong Kong, its mass internment of Muslims in Xinjiang has come under global scrutiny; US sanctioned the first lot of Chinese officials on Tuesday. The US pincer on trade is unlikely to ease and signature Belt and Road Initiative has enough challenges on its hands to dissuade China from opening new fronts. Hopefully, the Indian Army’s exercises have transmitted the right signals because China may not be ready to abandon Pakistan on Kashmir. As China has reaffirmed, Sino-Indian ties transcend sectoral disputes. But the challenge will be in adroitly managing them in the crucial days ahead.

Modi’s second term will focus on circumventing China

G Parthasarathy
Former Diplomat 

Recently published figures on global exports of countries are interesting. China, whose exports were less than India’s in 1948, is today the world’s largest exporter, with annual exports of $1.99 trillion. Even the US lags behind China, with annual exports of $1.46 trillion. India, with annual exports of $268.6 billion, ranks 20th — behind Singapore and Taiwan. Those who believe that India can match China’s regional influence, on its own, should remember these facts. India will have to be realistic in seeking to balance Chinese power across the Indian Ocean. We are working with littoral countries against becoming overly dependent on China. Our effort is to balance Chinese power in cooperation with partners like Japan, the US, EU members Germany and France and like-minded Asian countries like Indonesia and Vietnam.

With foreign trade and investment gaining importance in promoting national influence in today’s world, safeguarding maritime security is becoming increasingly important. India is, therefore, paying greater attention now to the security of its sea-lanes across the Indian Ocean ‘neighbourhood’. This extends from Aden and the Straits of Hormuz, the narrow gateway in the oil-rich Persian Gulf, astride India’s western shores, to the Malacca Straits. It is across these sea-lanes that over 60% of the world’s petroleum exports move on maritime routes. These lanes, which move across the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in our east, are also the strategic routes for the flow of oil from across the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean. The Straits of Malacca are regarded as crucial ‘choke points’ for the world’s sea-borne oil supplies. The security of Indian Ocean routes from Hormuz to Malacca, therefore, remains crucial for India’s national security.

India gets over 70% of its oil supplies across the sea routes of the Indian Ocean. The imperatives of energy security are becoming increasingly complex because of rivalries within the Indian Ocean Region as India now faces an assertive China. Beijing receives most of its oil imports from across the Indian Ocean through the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the Straits of Malacca. An estimated 16 million barrels of oil are transported across the Straits of Malacca daily. China would have realistically recognised that any land-based adventure across its borders with India could lead to disruption in its supplies of oil and gas, crossing the narrow straits. China is sparing no effort to expand the Myanmar Port of Kyaukpyu in the Bay of Bengal. This port is linked to it Yunnan province by pipelines across Myanmar. 

Security of the sea-lanes in the Indian Ocean now has global dimensions. Apart from rivalries within the region, its geopolitics is substantially influenced by the US and its allies like Japan, on the one hand, and rivals like China on the other. Tensions also arise from the sectarian, Shia-Sunni and civilisational Arab-Iranian rivalries. Iraq is the only major Arab power with a majority Shia population. It carefully balances ties between its Sunni Arab brethren and Iran! Superimposed on these rivalries are Israeli-Palestinian tensions, with Islamic countries paying lip service to the Palestinian cause.

While China and India have avoided involvement in these rivalries, India has concerns about China’s ambitions for military bases. China uses its economic clout to offer credits for infrastructure projects, leading recipients into a ‘debt trap’. Beijing has invested $590 million in building a naval base at Djibouti in the Horn of Africa. The US, France and Japan have bases nearby. China took over control of the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka after Colombo was unable to repay credits. The port of Mombasa, Kenya, appears headed in the same direction, as also the airport in Zambian capital Lusaka. India has been drawing the attention of smaller countries to the dangers of getting exposed to excessive debt liabilities with China. China also extends patronage to leaders like former Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen, who are ‘encouraged’ to ignore Indian interests. PM Modi has evolved a strategy to deal with partner countries across the Indian Ocean. India has taken measures to promote economic and security cooperation with island states like Mauritius, Seychelles and the Maldives. The ‘special relationship’ that India enjoys in Mauritius was evident by the presence of Maldives PM Pravind Jugnauth in the swearing-in ceremony of Modi, both in 2014 and 2019. Three Indian-built patrol boats have been supplied to Mauritius in recent years. Modi noted: ‘As frontline states of the Indian Ocean, PM Jugnauth and I agree that it is our responsibility to ensure collective maritime security around our coasts and in our exclusive economic zone.’ Ties with Seychelles are also being strengthened.

There are concerns that China appears to be undertaking an effort in Colombo to take over the management of another port. India recently offered to participate in building a container terminal in Colombo in collaboration with Japan. The bulk of the cargo handled in Colombo is destined for India. China has, however, made a serious mistake by making untenable claims on maritime borders with its maritime neighbours. It is facing a serious problem with Indonesia, which has demarcated its maritime boundaries with India. Rejecting Chinese claims on its Natuna Islands, Indonesia asserted: ‘China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea have no legal basis under international law.’ Modi and Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo agreed recently that India would cooperate in building the Sabang Port in Indonesia, located close to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Our Navy is now well positioned to meet security challenges. Contrary to popular perception, India is moving towards playing a significant role in its Indian Ocean neighbourhood.

Lt Gen KJ Singh (retd)

Ideally, individual war memorials should be avoided as these get neglected due to lack of institutionalised funding. Yet, they are being allowed to come up in native villages and towns, often for vote bank and emotional considerations. Another worrying trend is the installation of statues and busts.

Between raising it Parliament and lobbying with the CM, retired Army officers and politicians across party lines are doing all they can to stop the move.

Shimla: The Army’s decision to shift the headquarters of the Army Training Command (ARTRAC) from Shimla to Meerut in Uttar Pradesh is not going down well in the Himachal capital.

There is a growing disquiet within the ARTRAC — one of Army’s strategic commands — and in Himachal’s political circles as there is a belief here that the process to move the command has begun.

The speculation began last month when Army Chief General Bipin Rawat paid a two-day visitto the ARTRAC headquarters. Sources said he discussed logistics involved in the shifting and later briefed Governor Acharya Devvrat on the decision.

The move will end Shimla’s 27-year association with the ARTRAC after its headquarters was moved here from Mhow in Madhya Pradesh in 1993. It will affect 200-odd officers of all ranks, including two Lt generals, seven major generals, brigadiers and a large number of serving personnel, a majority of whom are locals.

While top ARTRAC officers are tight-lipped on the reasons behind the move, some retired army officers from Himachal have stepped up lobbying against it and have met Chief Minister Jairam Thakur, former chief minister Virbhadra Singh and the leader of Opposition Mukesh Agnihotri.

The retired officers say that as the prime task of ARTRAC, dubbed the Army’s think-tank, is to formulate concepts, training modules and frame new doctrines of warfare and undertake research, Shimla is an ideal place to work as it is quiet and peaceful.

“I don’t see any operational or administrative advantages in moving to Meerut,” says Lt General K. Surendra Nath (retd) who was GoC-In-C ARTRAC between 2011 and 2013. “Before such a decision is actually implemented, the rationale and necessity, besides financial implications, need to be studied and established.”

He also rejects the argument of Shimla having a geographical disadvantage or having space constraints.

“In today’s age, developments in technology and communication have cut down all such barriers. For that matter, Meerut doesn’t even have an airport.”

Himachal govt opposed to the move

The Himachal polity, cutting across party lines, is also opposed to the move.

Just four days ago, on 13 June, the Congress’ deputy leader in Rajya Sabha, Anand Sharma, who belongs to Shimla, had shot off a letter to Defence Minister Rajnath Singh questioning the justification for the move.

Quoting huge financial implications for the relocation to Meerut with “no big operational advantages”, Sharma says he will raise the issue in Parliament.

“I will certainly take up this issue in the Parliament,” he told ThePrint. “Wasting hundreds of crores is highly inappropriate. I have also brought out other issues in my letter to Raksha Mantri.”

In February 2019, Leader of Opposition Mukesh Agnihotri raised the issued in the state legislature and called for the shifting to be stopped. To this, Chief Minister Thakur said he would take up the matter with the defence minister.

“The ARTRAC has its own historical and strategic significance. I will leave no stone unturned to withdraw the proposal of shifting HQ ARTRAC,” he had then said. “Our defence forces make their own internal strategies as per their requirement but individually I am against its shifting.”

Chief Secretary B.K. Aggarwal told ThePrint that the chief minister had written to the then Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

“If need be, we will take up the matter again. Currently, the CM sahib is abroad. Once he returns, he will take it up with the defence minister afresh,” said Aggarwal. “But so far, we have not received any official communication about the proposed shifting.”

Also read: In Shimla’s IAF vs Army fight, nationalism & Balakot battle jobs & highways

The Army’s think-tank

The ARTRAC is one of the seven commands of the Army. The proposal to shift its headquarters to Meerut was cleared in October. The move is part of the Army’s restructuring process, following four comprehensive studies by top generals, which aims to change the way the force functions and fights.

The Army also deems that it needs more space as it is looking to merge the Director General of Military Training (DGMT) at its headquarters with ARTRAC. The two arms complement each other — while the DGMT executes training plans for operations, war games and joint training, the ARTRAC controls the training establishments and comes up with the training programme.

“It’s part of the Army chief’s restructuring process. There is an urgent need to upgrade the skills, maximise the effectiveness of training and formulate new concepts,” said a senior officer posted at ARTRAC, on the condition of anonymity. “Even logistically, there are disadvantages in Shimla as compared to Meerut. Space constraints are also an issue.”

Brigadier Pawan Chaudhary, who belongs to Kangra, and had served in the ARTRAC, sees no reason to object to the move as he feels that ARTRAC will be replaced by some other formation, such as an Infantry Division headquarters or the Punjab and Himachal Pradesh Area headquarters.

“It’s true that the issue is emotive for Shimla. But if ARTRAC moves out, some other formation will come. The Army will certainly use infrastructure and assets it has built over the years,” he says. “It’s true that the Army HQs do find certain locational and logistic issues as a disadvantage for the ARTRAC, particularly involving travel.”

The Chief was briefed and updated by Lt Gen Paramjit Singh, General Officer Commanding, White Knight Corps (Nagrota based XVI Corps) and commanders on the ground.

By Express News Service

NEW DELHI: Army Chief General Bipin Rawat is on a visit to review security in the Jammu region and he has expressed satisfaction with the operational preparedness.

General Bipin Rawat said, “He is fully satisfied with the operational preparedness of troops to meet all security challenges”.

The Chief was briefed and updated by Lt Gen Paramjit Singh, General Officer Commanding, White Knight Corps (Nagrota based XVI Corps) and commanders on the ground.

The White Knight Corps is tasked with guarding the International Border with Pakistan in the Jammu Region, maintaining the sanctity of the Line of Control.

It also is committed to fight militancy along with carrying out development programmes in the Jammu and Kashmir State.

Army Chief along with Lt Gen Ranbir Singh, Commander, Northern Command reviewed the preparations to respond to ceasefire violations, counter-infiltration grid and preparation to deal with provocations by the enemy on the Line of Control and International border.

The COAS was also briefed on the infusion of technology with operational techniques and integration of force multipliers, which has increased capabilities manifold.

During his interaction with the troops, Chief commended them for selfless devotion and high standard of professionalism.

He was appreciative of the synergy between Jammu & Kashmir Police, Civil Administration, Border Security Force and the Army. He appreciated the motivation and high morale of the White Knight Corps.

During the interaction, the COAS awarded, on the spot Commendation Cards to five soldiers for their gallant action in the face of the enemy.

General Rawat also conveyed his appreciation to the citizens residing along the Line of Control and international border for providing all the support to the deployed troops and maintaining vigil in their areas.

Jammu, June 19

A massive traffic jam near the 11,575-feet-high Zojila pass along the 434-km Srinagar-Leh national highway on Wednesday left thousands of commuters, including tourists, stranded for hours, officials said.

The traffic on the highway came to a halt when the Border Roads Organisation, which maintains the highway, pressed its men and machines to carry out some urgent repairs on the arterial road, the officials said.

“We had reached Zojila pass around forenoon and have been caught in a massive traffic jam for the last four hours,” a tourist heading for Leh told PTI.

He said the authorities concerned should have intimated the travellers before suddenly stopping the traffic and causing unnecessary inconvenience to them.

“There is no information and we do not know how long we have to face this nightmare,” he said. 

A traffic department official said the traffic on the highway was restored and cops are on the job to ensure smooth movement of vehicles. — PTI