Sadiq Khan win affirms liberalism will die hard in the city

Man of the moment: The multi-faith electorate of London has reposed faith in Sadiq.

IN 2006, I was fortunate to meet Ken Livingstone, Lord Mayor of London, in an interaction during the visit of the Royal College of Defence Studies delegation to the London town hall. I had the honour to raise a question to him which alluded to the fact that with all the financial and cultural activities associated with the ‘alternative’ cities of the world, such as Singapore, Dubai and Hongkong, didn’t he, as Mayor, feel that London’s days were numbered? He didn’t mull even a second as he responded: “But, sir, surely you do forget one thing; London is London.” That, just about sums up what London is all about. You do not have to retrace steps to the story of Puss in Boots to recall the once-poverty-stricken Dick Whittington, Lord Mayor of London, for whom the church bells had predicted his achievement many years before he became one. The same city of London has now gone and elected a new Mayor for itself to replace the iconic Boris Johnson who may well be heading towards the prime ministership, should Cameron lose the Brexit vote. The new incumbent is a British Muslim, son of a former Pakistani citizen who drove buses for a living in London. He is Sadiq Khan, a 45-year-old resident of Tooting and the Labour Party candidate for this election. In my short time at London, I loved visiting Tooting for its South Asian restaurants and stores to supplement the tastes of my kitchen. Once in a while, there were shootouts and gang wars between rival Pakistani gangs around Tooting and there seemed nothing liberal about that suburb which could fit it into the mould of London. Yet a resident from there has won the election to head one of the most liberal cities of the world.Given the Islamophobia doing the rounds, would one have expected a Muslim to be elected the Mayor of a metropolis which itself has suffered the effects of Islamic Terrorism (July 7, 2005)? Given the Trumpism effect all over America and the Paris attacks followed by Brussels, would it be even conceivable that a Western capital city would opt for a Muslim as its Mayor? It is easy to brush it off with an assumption by most people that faith is not considered when it comes to elections; only the true worth is seen. This is utopianism because the context of the times always dictates political trends and the mayorship of that great city is surely as political as can be. Indian-American friends from all over the US are all quietly communicating their concern about the way Trumpism is taking over the thinking of their neighborhoods and their work places. Hillary is surely not going to find it easy, they say. If you have lived in the UK for even a short time and interacted with a cross-section of society, you would have realised how different that society is. With all that is happening, in terms of the effect of the Middle East on Europe, we all imagined and believed in the end of liberalism as an ideology. The UK proves that liberalism is yet alive and kicking; if anything, London’s mayoral election confirms it. Khan took 57 per cent of the vote. The latest census showed that 12.4 per cent of Londoners are Muslim, 48.4 per cent Christian, 1.8 per cent Jewish, 5 per cent Hindu, 1 per cent Sikh and 20.7 per cent profess no faith. This means that a vast majority of non-Muslims voted Khan.British society is the most self-critical, but has a sense of high self-esteem and great respect for freedom and liberty. It takes much to put down that belief. A couple of ragtag jihadi organisations cannot put down that spirit. It is also true that the UK has not suffered the true effects of migration in the way that Europe has. The true worth, some say, will be reflected when London’s famed Waterloo, Paddington  and Victoria stations will be teeming with migrants, whose credentials will always be suspect. In saying this, I think the true understanding of the UK’s multi-ethnic culture is lost. I always perceive the British as over-liberal in their belief. Sometimes, one tends to believe that much of this comes from the satisfaction of once having ruled the world and resigned themselves to the dilution of power, without remorse. Amidst all this, comes the rise of a liberal Muslim who expresses his love for the city and vows to make London safe and happy. It is also the ‘island effect’ at work, where the UK perceives itself as different to Europe and can shut out the insecurity brought on by Islamophobia prevailing around most of the West and continue to believe in liberalism. This is best exemplified by Merkel’s extreme liberal values finding her popularity take a dip; the electorate in Germany is quite different to that of the UK. The UK media, too, displays a quiet maturity, many times choosing to ignore obvious attempts at instigation by radicals. Ignoring them and making them less relevant has been the UK’s way of promoting its own value system which has helped nurture a man like Sadiq Khan, in whom the multi-ethnic and multi-faith electorate of London has reposed faith. Which way the ideological cookie crumbles in the West will be dictated in the near future when the UK goes to the Brexit polls and the US decides whether it is Trumpism or Hillaryism which prevails. Till then, it is good to remember that London is London. 

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

The writer is associated with Vivekanand International Foundation and Delhi Policy Group

If you thought looking hot in uniform was only a male fantasy, wait till you meet the women brigade who is ready to sweat it out to wear one—be it the olive green, white or sky blue

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Girls being trained for the defence forces at Chandigarh-based SSB Training Institute

Manika Ahuja

The clarion call of the Indian Army—‘Do you have it in you, now has a fair share of women voice answering it, “Yes, we do.” And indeed they do. Now, with another wing of defence forces, the Indian Navy according permanent commission to women officers, following the lead of Air Force and Indian Army, is it not a sign that the tough guys have recognised at long last that women do have what it takes to serve the defence forces?And mind you, women are not asking for any concession when it comes to testing their physical strength. Sub Lieutenant in the Indian Navy, Nikita Kashyap, says female officers are as robust and sturdy as their male counterparts. “The level of training is equally rigorous for both, male and female officers.” The news of women being granted the permanent commission has re-awakened an interest among the fairer sex to serve selflessly in the Indian defence forces. She warmly embraces to the move as, “We are being given the glorious opportunity to serve our motherland for a longer period of time. Nothing could be more delightful than this!”And it was about time! Assistant director, Mai Bhago Armed Forces Preparatory Institute, Sukhpreet Thind, hails the change as a much-needed one. She observes that Chennai girl, Divya Ajith, who made history by becoming the first lady cadet to bag the sword of honour from the Officers Training Academy, proved that girls and boys are equally capable.Daughter of an Army man, Neha Sharma, has aspired to join the forces, ever since sense dawned upon her. “My father derived a distinct contentment by serving the nation. I want to take forward the legacy,” she shares. This move has enthused even those who are from non-defence background. “Many of my peers have started preparing after they heard of the new openings and permanent commission status grant for women.”Administrative officer-cum-office manager with Olive Greens SSB training institute, Honorary Lieutenant Vijay Kumar, informs that viz a viz male cadets, “the ratio of girl clearing the defence forces exams is much higher.” According to him, the move to grant permanent commission to women will provide “surety to the female aspirants who were previously inducted only in the short service commission (SSC) for a period of ten to fourteen years.”Ritu Rani has been training for defence forces for the last two years now. Having cleared her written exams for the Air Force and CDS, Rani, who is now gearing up for her SSB round, shares that the permanent commission grant concurs with the concept of women empowerment. “We women will now be able to serve out motherland for an extended period and will also be entitled to other benefits like pension.” Apoorva Trivedi, who is enrolled for the defence preparation at a Chandigarh-based training centre, shares similar sentiments.Monika Negi, student of Chandigarh Group of Colleges, Landran, who has recently cleared AFCAT written exam and is gearing up for her five-day SSB training advises every girl to “grab this wonderful opportunity and try cracking the prestigious defence forces with greater level of seriousness.” She suggests that the minimum qualification for women aspirants to be eligible for joining the defence forces should be brought down. “Boys are allowed to enter after class 12. Also, girls should be deemed eligible for the NDA exam,” she observes.

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, May 3

Former IAF chief SP Tyagi was grilled by the CBI for the second day today in connection with the Rs 3,600-crore AgustaWestland chopper deal.Tyagi arrived at the CBI headquarters at 11 am. After Tyagi admitted that he met an official of VVIP chopper manufacturing company Finmeccanica in India, the CBI called Gautam Khetan, former legal adviser to a Chandigarh-based IT firm, for questioning.Tyagi has accepted that he met officials of the Finmeccanica, including its chief operating officer George Zapa, in India in 2005. He also admitted to running four companies (Vanshi, Anuras, Shavan and Meghanshu) in Noida. The companies are registered in the name of Tyagi and his wife, sources say.

Introduction

Advancements in technology have revolutionised warfare already. By 2025, technology would have gone to the next step or perhaps the next to next step. With continuing volatility in India’s neighbourhood, we may be faced with heightened threats in future through the spectrum of conflict particularly; in the asymmetric spheres, along with militarisation of space and heightened hostile activity in cyberspace. There is a need to examine how technology will impact future warfare, what our voids and weaknesses are with respect to technology and what initiatives we need to take in order to enable India gain its rightful place in the comity of nations.

Present Impact of Technology on Warfare

Technology enables hi-tech wars that are short and swift. Ranges, accuracy and lethality of weapons have increased very considerably. Concurrently, the space and time continuum has been greatly compressed. There is exponential increase in situational awareness and battlefield transparency as forces are shifting from platform centric to network centric capabilities. Simultaneous handling of the strategic, operational and tactical levels is possible. Improved battlefield transparency in turn has increased the importance of dispersion of forces and need for deception. Technology has ushered the advent of offensive cyber warfare, information dominance, space wars and Effect Based Operations (EBOs). Ironically, technology has also empowered the terrorist to cause more severe damage.

Future Scenario

The regional security environment surrounding India today includes failed and failing states. We are faced with nuclear threat, missile threat, cyber threat, cross border terrorism, infiltration, demographic assault, conventional threat and insurgencies. Besides, we are battling continuing asymmetric wars waged by both, China and Pakistan. The 27 odd terrorist organizations operating in India including the Maoist insurgency are open to exploitation by our adversaries. The US thin out from Af-Pak Region and increased Chinese forays into POK, Pakistan, South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) will enhance collusive threat from China and Pakistan.

Pakistan’s obsession to control Afghanistan and get the Indians out is unlikely to recede. India should, therefore, be prepared to continue to battle asymmetric war with overlaps of conventional war (both with China and Pakistan) under the nuclear shadow. Insurgencies in India are likely to continue with burgeoning population unless we can manage the social change very well, of which the signs at present are not very encouraging. Cross border terror may escalate with ISI’s tail up, Pakistan’s jihadi policy, tacit support by China and expanding globalization of terror outfits like the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). Existing LeT footprints in Maldives, Kerala and efforts to link-up with the Maoists spell more danger, especially for South India. The current Opposition in Bangladesh is known for its links with anti-India terrorist organizations and change of guard in Bangladesh could increase our problems. Space and cyber space will be active battlegrounds, particularly because of credible capabilities of China. Militaries alone cannot cope with new threats, courtesy globalization. Ability to conduct integrated operations with other components of Security Sector is necessary. The entire Security Sector will need to integrate to cope with 21st Century challenges. The Security Sector will encompass the Armed Forces, Special Forces, Para Military Forces, Central Armed Police Forces, Coast Guard, Intelligence Services, Private Security Services, Customs and Immigration Services, concerned Government Ministries / Departments and the like. Therefore, while developing and planning future defence related technologies, it would be prudent to look at the entire Security Sector.

Cyber warfare may emerge more dangerous than even nuclear threat due to ambiguity in the source of attack and the potential to cripple critical infrastructure of a country, bringing it to a standstill. Internet has increased vulnerability to cyber attacks. Prevention is being replaced by pre-emption and the cyber race is becoming endlessly vicious in the absence of any international norms. 25 million strains of malware were created in 2009 alone1, whereas, 286 malware variants were detected in 2010 – average of one every 0.79 seconds2. Offensive information dominance is the new buzzword. Under threat are national security and our economic well being. Cyber security is talked more in terms of “cyber insecurity”; courtesy hackers, phishing, malware, viruses, automated internet tools, e-bombs, logic bombs, electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) and high pressure microwave (HPM) attacks. Critical infrastructure and distribution systems are highly vulnerable. Geographical distribution of networks and sheer size of devices and networks is a challenge, especially with the use of different interoperable protocols and diverse equipment and largely untutored work force with little interest in IT security. Effects of errors and omissions are increasingly catastrophic. Attacks are organized, disciplined, aggressive, well resourced and sophisticated. Adversaries are nation states, terrorist groups, criminals, hackers, non-state actors, latter largely a misnomer. Significant exfiltration of critical, sensitive information, planting malicious software occurs on regular basis. Major cyber attacks on critical infrastructure and control systems have occurred since 1982 involving oil / gas pipelines, emergency alert systems, floodgates of dams, communications and power of airports, sewage system, nuclear monitoring system, power grids, train signaling system, canal system, nuclear power plants, hospital communication system – to the power blackout in Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2011. The prolonged power blackout at Terminal 3 of Indira Gandhi international Airport on 06 Aug 2011 could well have been caused by a cyber attack.

Future Technological Developments

Listing out all the likely technological advancements with military applications by say year 2025 would require many pages but existing improved assault rifles will perhaps include phased plasma guns. Plasma weapons already reported in Russia, focus beams of electromagnetic energy produced by laser or microwave radiation into upper layers of atmosphere to defeat targets flying at supersonic or near-sonic speeds, bumping the targets out of trajectory. Laser weapons would be fielded on land, sea and air. Our DRDO is developing a Laser Dazzler for police forces that will impair vision temporarily to control unruly crowds. DRDO’s Laser Science & Technology Centre (LASTEC) is developing a vehicle mounted gas dynamic laser-based Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) system, named ‘Aditya’ as a technology demonstrator. A 25-kilowatt laser system is also under development for hitting a missile in terminal phase at a distance of 5-7 kms. DRDO identifies DEWs, along with space security, cyber-security and hypersonic vehicles as future projects. MoD’s “Technology Perspective & Capability Roadmap” identifies DEWs and anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons as thrust areas over the next 15 years. However, given the track record of DRDO, how much they will actually deliver by 2025 is anybody’s guess.

While there was much talk of stealth helicopters in the recent US Navy Seals raid in Pakistan to kill Osama bin Laden, the US has already developed a Reusable Space Plane (X-37B) – another step in weaponising Space. In addition, a powerful conventional weapon (Prompt Global Strike), as alternative to nuclear warhead, is under development, which can travel halfway around the world from launch to target in less than 30 minutes, using missile launch, release of hypersonic gliders and eventual release of 1000 pound deep penetration bombs. The revolution in communications equipment is already visible in commercialized products. The narrative of technological advancements can go on endlessly. China’s indigenous aircraft carrier could be twice the speed of existing carriers with a catamaran type of hull greatly reducing pitching, yawing, swaying and capacity for simultaneous launch and landing of aircraft from twin flight decks. India’s Space Vision 2025 envisages satellite based communication and navigation systems for rural connectivity, security needs and mobile services. Imaging capability is to be enhanced for natural resource management, weather and climate change studies. Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System (IRNSS) with seven satellites is to be up by 2012, enabling deployment of indigenous GPS. Space missions and planetary exploration are planned to understand the solar system and the universe. Development of a heavy lift launcher, Reusable Launch Vehicles as Technology Demonstrator missions leading to Two Stages To Orbit (TSTO) and human space flight are also planned.

Technological Transformation

Considering the rapid rate at which technology is progressing, 2025 should actually see a quantum jump. Fully Networked Centric Warfare (NCW) capable forces would be operationalised. Better PGMs would be available including High Energy Lasers, Plasma, Electro Magnetic, Ultra Sonic and DEWs. ISR and communications would be revolutionalised. Long range strategic Aero-Space Platforms would be in play. Stealth and Smart Technologies and Artificial intelligence would be optimized. Improved nukes would be more compact and lethal. Nano weapons and equipment, including Micro UAVs, Ant Robots and the like would come in. Cyber Warriors, Worms, Viruses, CyBugs would be common. ASATs would be in use. Considerable progress can also be expected in the ongoing research of mind control, albeit this too can have adverse effects for mankind, should it fall into wrong hands. Most of these technologies, as mentioned above, would have come in China by 2025 and some of them by extension in Pakistan.

Impact on Future Warfare

Technological advancements, as mentioned above, will greatly affect the manner in which wars will be fought. Conflict will be five dimensional to include Aero-Space, Land, Sea, Electro-Magnetic and Cyber. Information Warfare will include Network Centric Warfare (NCW), C4I2 Warfare, Electronic Warfare, Cyber Warfare and all other forms of operationalized Cyber Space. Space Combat, Cyber Space Combat, Radiation Combat, Robotic Combat, Nano-technology Combat will add to the forms of Combat. Operations will be increasingly inter-agency involving greater application of all elements of national power. States like Pakistan will continue to employ hi-tech irregular forces. Asymmetric wars will be an ongoing affair. Information superiority will be as important as land, sea and aero-space superiority. The central feature of 21st Century warfare will be that force application must include all domains of diplomacy, information technology (offensive and defensive), military operations and economic activities (DIME). India must invest in all aspects of DIME in areas of our strategic interest. At national level, there would be requirement of constant synergy. De-conflicting actions are required to achieve a united national front. Military jointness is an absolute imperative in the Armed Forces. Ability to conduct integrated operations with other components of Security Sector is necessary.

Technology Related Requirements

Considering the threats to our national security by 2025 coupled with technological advancements, our wish list should be as under, which should also be the focus for DRDO, PSUs and Private industry for development of technologies:-

(a)   Networked elements of national power.

(b)   Information dominance and information assurance.

(c)   Ability to paralyse enemy C4I2 infrastructure.

(d)   Credible deterrence against state sponsored terrorism.

(e)   Long range expeditionary strategic forces.

(f)    Stand off weapons to pre-empt enemy attack.

(g)   Mix of DEW, PGMS, ASATS etc.

(h)   Ability to disrupt enemy logistics / sustenance.

(j)    Mix of hard kill and soft kill options.

(k)   Layered strategic air and theatre missile defence.

(l)    Competitive cyber warfare capability.

(m)  Ability to exploit space and cyber space.

(n)   Conventional forces capable of winning high tech wars.

Leave aside the Security Sector, even the Military presently does not even have common data structures, symbology and interoperable protocols. A true “System of Systems” approach has yet to come. The Military must accelerate establishment of Integrated C4I2SR system. Integrated communications must be established to provide seamless communications vertically and horizontally. All platforms must be network enabled. Cyber security must graduate to information assurance and information dominance. A holistic review should be done to ascertain requirements of stand off PGMs, DEWs, ASATs. Technologies like Steerable Beam Technology, Wide Band / Software Defined Radios, Network Security, Common GIS, Data Fusion and Analysis, Alternatives to GPS, Dynamic Bandwidth Management, Lasers to shoot UAVs, Camouflage and Concealment etc should be exploited.

We should not lose focus on equipping the soldier at the cutting edge who is constantly engaged in the sub conventional conflicts. This also applies to the cutting edge of the entire Security Sector including the PMF, CPOs and Police. The Government must focus on indigenous production of critical hardware, software, telecom equipment and chip manufacture. The Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) with the cosmetic annual review does not meet present day requirements. Its review should be outsourced incorporating academia, think tanks and private industry. Both the civil and military leadership should lend themselves to attitudinal change to accommodate the concept of NCW. The Military Leadership must adapt to the changing nature of war. With respect to intelligence, technology should be exploited for real time / near real time dissemination of the Common Operational Picture (COP) and incorporation of a Decision Support System (DSS) to assist analysis, assessment and decision making. The Military should undertake holistic examination of its ISR and Intelligence requirements. Networking of Services Intelligence with “all sources” intelligence and real time / near real time dissemination should be ensured.

The Government must identify focus areas for R&D. Unveiling of our LCA with 40 per cent imported parts including the engine concurrent to China unveiling its Stealth Fighter, indicates the pathetic state of our R&D. Mr Anil Manibhai Naik, Chairman L&T laments in his letter to the Prime Minister3,“Defence Production (MoD) Joint Secretaries and Secretaries of Defence Ministry are on the Boards of all PSUs — sickest of sick units you can think of who cannot take out one conventional submarine in 15 years now with the result that the gap is widening between us and China and bulk of the time we resort to imports out of no choice. The defence industry which could have really flowered around very high technological development and taken India to the next and next level of technological achievement and excellence is not happening”. There is a positive requirement to slash the business empires of the DRDO and make them focus on critical areas. DRDO’s recent announcement of having produced a mosquito repellent indicates how unfocused this elephantine organization is. We must truly open defence sector to the private industry, instead of the current practice of “through DRDO and PSUs.” The DRDO and PSUs need to be made accountable and responsible. Groups of private industry should be identified for focused requirements. R&D allocations should be reviewed and appropriate share must go to private industry / group (s) of private industry tasked for defence requirements. The DRDO /and PSUs should learn the art of ‘reverse engineering’ to cut short development time, as is being done by China.

Information revolution and networked environment give rise to various entities. Services must retain core competency and have ability to integrate with other domain specialists. Concept Development Centres (CDCs) should be established involving modelling, simulation and synthetic environment that will provide a powerful aid to visualisation analysis, test, evaluation, training and rehearsal throughout acquisition lifecycle. Simulation is the best way to understand and optimize dynamics of manufacturing processes and support chains. CDCs require networking with knowledge entities. In year 2005, China already had 90 laboratories for chip manufacture. We have yet to establish the first such facility, which proves how unfocussed we are as a nation.

Conclusion

By all indications, India will have to face heightened threats from its immediate neighbourhood by 2025, particularly from China and Pakistan. Technological advancements will activate the domains of space and cyberspace. The widening military gap between China and India will magnify these threats, which need to be taken seriously. We urgently need a revolution in military affairs (RMA) to take us into the next level of military capabilities to meet future challenges. A draft national cyber policy has been prepared, and comments and recommendations have been invited by the Government. The crux will be its speedy implementation and layered cyber protection for security and critical infrastructure protection, leading thereon to information dominance. It is possible if the Government and the Military take various initiatives and pursue them vigorously to ensure speedy execution. We have to act consciously and speedily.

Endnotes

1.      Symantec Report 2010.

2.      Symantec Report 2010.

3.      Anil Manibhai Naik, Chairman of L&T wrote a letter to the Prime Minister, details of which appeared in <rediff.com> on 8 March 2011, 18.58 IST.

*Lieutenant General PC Katoch, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SC (Retd) was commissioned into the Parachute Regiment in December 1969. He superannuated as Director General Information Systems. Post retirement, he has authored articles on military cum security issues. He is an elected member of the USI Council. Currently, he holds the Field Marshal KM Cariappa Chair of Excellence at USI Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation (CS3).

Journal of the United Service Institution of India, Vol. CXLI, No. 585, July-September 2011.

Arun Joshi
A political will to find a way forward on the contentious Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), which has pitted the people of Kashmir against the Army, is the need of the hour. A realistic assessment of the Kashmir situation as well as confidence-building measures will help.

Members of the All-Party Hurriyat Conference shout slogans during a protest against the Army”s Pathribal verdict.

There  is a way out of the  two fiercely contested narratives  about the Armed Forces Special  Powers Act  in Jammu and Kashmir. The need of the hour is a fair and transparent assessment of the situation in which the ground realities and a  sense of mutual trust should matter the most, rather than  a perennial war scenario contrasted with the hate-mongering triggered by vested interests.More importantly, a strong will  to find a way  forward  should be  on the agenda of both the sides. Unfortunately, the two sides  in this sensitive terrain  are identified  as  the people of Kashmir versus the Indian Army. The very purpose of the definition and objective of having the Army to protect the people is increasingly under threat. The twin narratives are massive misinformation about special powers of the armed forces under AFSPA which is opposed to the well-entrenched belief that no operation in Kashmir is possible without the shield of  AFSPA since it would undermine anti-militancy operations.These two narratives are eroding the very idea  with which the Act was invoked  in  Jammu and Kashmir  in two phases — July 1990 and August 2001 — to protect the lives and properties of the people  against the onslaught of terrorism sponsored from across the border.After almost 26 years of its existence, the  Disturbed Area Act  and AFSPA  do not have the relevance as when they were introduced  to combat militancy in July 1990. The people of the Valley  spent sleepless nights as peace was shattered by the  24×7 gunfire and grenade explosions. There is a reasonable validity in the Army’s argument — though it should have been articulated  by the state and the Central government and  not by the generals — that this immunity is needed in some parts  of the state.  The Army did not come on its own, the governments  asked for them and their special powers in Jammu and Kashmir. In July 1990, the Centre  did it when the state was under Governor’s rule and the late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed was the  Union Home Minister.In the second phase, August 2001, it was enforced on the recommendations of the Farooq Abdullah government, which was under perceptible  pressure from the then NDA government at the Centre. The entire Jammu region was notified as “Disturbed Area”  and armed forces were conferred  with special powers. Earlier, only the Valley and 20-km radius from the Line of Control in the twin border districts of Rajouri and Poonch in Jammu region were covered under these provisions.Now for more than a decade the debate has been raging whether the AFSPA should stay or go. The narrative is based mostly on the political, ideological and religious leanings,  rather than on a fair assessment of what is happening  on the ground and what needs to be done. The situation has changed, but contrasting  perceptions have not. It seems that the clock is either frozen for some or it is moving ahead of the times.   The perception of the Kashmir-centric political groups of the the situation (partly  correct  too), is that it is much better than what it was in 1990 when AFSPA was invoked. Today, 20 out of 22 districts of the state are notified as Disturbed Areas and the armed forces enjoy immunity in these  parts of the state. It covers more than 95 per cent of the 12-million population of the state. A question was raised in  November 2011, what if the militants cover all the swathes  once the Army is  devoid of the special powers and finds it  difficult to  operate against them effectively  given the legal complexities  in conducting anti-terror operations. The  answer was typically political: “The  special powers can be restored  to the Army  once such an exigency arises.” Will any  Kashmir-centric party ever allow that to happen even if the militants happen to operate from their own neighbhourhood?  Never. Even if  they do it, the inevitable question is, why was the experiment  undertaken in the first place? Although  the street  protests  in 2016 have  a  disturbingly familiar resonance of the past, this time the Army is the prime target.   To counter such protests with guns  backfires. This strengthens the  anti-AFSPA narrative. A dispassionate  look at the prevailing situation in Jammu and Kashmir  is  a must before this debate to find a way forward is carried further. The narrative  based on the political, ideological and religious leanings  has to be shunned.Need of the times — a way forward The threat perception should be  taken into account  by reflecting on the past, present and the future moves of the forces which are active from across the border. It should not be contrived but  based  purely on the strategic need. Involving elected representatives of  all the parties,  the independent-minded village elders on  a village-to-village basis  and the  men from the Army  in determining the threat and the remedy would offer a roadmap which is acceptable to all barring those who have a permanent anti-India and anti-Army agenda. The causes of the radicalisation  of the youth in  Kashmir should be analysed. It would  make an interesting study, whether the Army presence and  special powers are being used as a tool to further the agenda of the radicalisation.  If that is so, the psychological aspect should be given more weightage than any other option.Alongside, a strategic endeavour would be to involve more and more people and the local religious leaders — there are many from outside the state who have  taken on themselves the task of  hardening the attitude of the younger generation  with hate-filled syllabi — to  curb radicalisation. The Jammu and Kashmir police should be given a role. Its recruitment should be  based on the professional  considerations and neither the political influence nor the religious leanings of the recruiting officials. Technology should be used extensively to eliminate the subjective human element in the recruitment process.The Army should think of going back to the barracks  with dignity. It must strengthen its anti-infiltration grid beriending the villagers on the border. The AFSPA was a need  of the times goneby, it should be retained  in the areas close to the borders and in militancy-infested villages. The rest of the population and places should be allowed to live  in the  forces-free areas. Eventualities of the Army firing in retaliation to any attack anywhere in the state should be  considered because the soldiers should  never be allowed to be sitting ducks. All those demanding the recall of the AFSPA should ensure that the  Army operations  against terrorists are not  interrupted by the vicious propaganda that instigates protest  against the soldiers  and provides escape routes to militants. Mutual trust  should be at the core in each aspect of the assessment and the future security needs. The Army too should understand that no extraordinary law required for emergency situations can be  kept alive perpetually.

ajoshi57@gmail.com

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar along with Army Chief Dalbir Singh Suhag shakes hands with Army Vice-Chief Lt Gen MMS Rai as Northern Army Commander Lt Gen DS Hooda and Western Army Commander Lt Gen KJ Singh look on, at the bi-annual Army Commanders’ conference in New Delhi. Tribune Photo

Ajay Banerjee

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, April 25

With China having re-structured its military commands in October last year, the Indian Army – the biggest of the three armed forces — has been told to work on a long-term integration with the IAF and the Navy to have joint commands.The bi-annual Army Commanders’ conference commenced in New Delhi today with the Army top brass listed to discuss a host of issues related to operations, threats and future planning.Sources said China-style joint commands were a long-term plan and the top brass of all three forces had been told to discuss the issue among themselves. The IAF and the Navy have already completed their conferences. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar visited one such joint command in Chengdu China on April 19.A joint command, termed in military parlance as a ‘theatre command’ places the resources of all forces at the command of senior military commander. For example a ‘theatre command’ in the east will integrate components of the IAF and the Army and also have flotilla of the Navy integrated with it. At present, the only joint command is in Andaman and Nicobar.The Army Commanders’ conference is the highest level ‘Army conference’ held to discuss current internal and external strategic issues, review of operational preparedness of the Army and aspects pertaining to training, administration, military technology and force modernisation. The conference will culminate on 30 April 2016.Meanwhile, addressing the Army Commanders’ conference, Army Chief General Dalbir Singh Suhag stressed the necessity to maintain a high degree of vigil and operational preparedness along disputed borders.He complimented commanders and troops in successfully executing recent counter-terrorist operations, while displaying due restraint.General Suhag, who visited the exercise Shatrujeet over the weekend in Rajasthan, stressed the necessity of speeding up the Army’s modernisation and capability development initiative. He stressed all commanders to continuously monitor and maintain internal health, values and ethics in all formations and units.

New Delhi, April 22

An invitation to a leading Chinese dissident to participate in a conference in Dharamsala next week could develop into another irritant between India and China.Dolkun Isa, a leader of World Uyghur Congress (WUC) who lives in Germany, has been invited to the conference being organised by the US-based ‘Initiatives for China’. Uyghurs and many other Chinese dissidents in exile are expected to attend and discuss democratic transformation in China.China’s unhappiness about reports that Dolkun has been given the visa was reflected in Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying saying, “What I want to point out is that Dolkun is a terrorist in red notice of the Interpol and Chinese police. Bringing him to justice is due obligation of relevant countries.”When asked about the issue, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Vikas Swarup today said, “We have seen the media reports and External Affairs Ministry is trying to ascertain the facts.”Dolkun has been quoted by media as saying he would take a final call on attending the event only after assessing his security in India. — PT

Invited for Dharamsala event

• Dolkun Isa, a leader of World Uyghur Congress who lives in Germany, has been invited for a conference in Dharamsala next week
• Uyghurs and other Chinese dissidents are likely to attend and discuss democratic transformation in China