China has won over these countries by providing timely financial, infrastructural and other material support as required by them.
Gurbachan Jagat
TO subdue an enemy without fighting is the acme of skill — Sun Tzu, the famous Chinese General, said this around 500 BC; it holds good today as well. The Chinese have been good students of their old military strategist, as can be seen in their ‘String of Pearls’ geopolitical strategy vis-a-vis the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean through which a large percentage of global shipments pass.
They have built ports in Gwadar (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) and Djibouti. When tied with their Belt and Road initiative, their domination of the region and ability to project Chinese trade and military strength is apparent. Their economy grew at 9 per cent from 1978 to 2005, propelling them from being one of the poorest countries to the second-largest economy in the world.
At the same time, a long-term geopolitical strategy was also put into motion. These ports and other infrastructure have been decades in the making. Today, while observing the political map of the sub-continent, one can’t avoid seeing the increasingly isolated environment that we find ourselves in. The entire northwestern border with Pakistan is hostile; to the northeast, China dominates the canvas, with a hostile Bangladesh, a neutral Nepal, rogue Myanmar and a fragile Bhutan. To the south, Sri Lanka finds itself increasingly under Chinese influence. The Tamil-Sinhalese conflict over the years, followed by a misguided IPKF operation, eroded a lot of trust. Nothing much has been done in the following decades to repair this relationship. Maldives, an old ally, barely tolerates us today. We have no meaningful trade agreement with Southeast Asia, so where do we stand?
The world is caught up in a whirlpool of extreme violence and there are so many more flashpoints which can only lead us to further violence. Three years ago, when war erupted in Ukraine, our Prime Minister gave a call to shed violence — “this is not an era of war” found resonance around the globe. However, since then, the world seems irrevocably drawn towards the vortex of a cataclysmic denouement. Before coming to the catastrophe taking place in the Middle East and Ukraine, let us first see how we are placed in today’s scenario.
It is true that we have almost never sought war, but when it has come calling at our door, we have always stepped up and defended ourselves. However, the important thing is to deflect war from our borders before it starts to take a toll. For this, deft diplomacy is called for, backed with a very strong defence force. We should be proactive first in our neighbourhood and with our friends around us. We seem to be having hardly any friends in our vicinity. This is not an overnight development but the result of painstaking policy initiatives taken by China in the absence of any meaningful effort by us. Whereas we have sought to live in self-denial, China has played deft hardball and won over these countries by providing timely financial, infrastructural and other material support as required by them. Now they have the capacity to disturb our borders and border states, whether it’s the northeast or northwest. An active diplomatic mission with strategic goals could have avoided this scenario.
In Kashmir, where our land was stained by Pakistani agencies in their quest for bloodlust, we stood firm, and our political leadership and armed forces were resolute and decisive in their response. The result of proactive measures was that after four days, the enemy sued for peace, and we generously accepted their plea, although there was a strong lobby in favour of more stringent action. US President Trump did claim credit for the ceasefire, but our PM has categorically told him that India has never and will never accept third-party mediation.
The US, its President and military leadership have praised Pakistan for its so-called help in containing terrorism. Its military spokesperson conveyed this in very laudatory terms before the US Senate Armed Forces Committee. And Trump hosted the Pakistani Army Chief at the White House on Wednesday.
In the recent cross-border skirmish, the Chinese, of course, were with the Pakistanis, the Russians not as effusive in their support to us as before and the American tone and tenor were disparaging. Compare this with the Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation signed between India and the Soviet Union in 1971. The US deployed the 7th Fleet, while the UK sent a carrier group against us. However, the Soviets countered the pincer move with a deployment of nuclear submarines and destroyer groups. The US and the UK retreated, and the rest is history. One might attribute this to Cold War dynamics, but the fact is that when we needed an ally, we had one.
For long, Indian soft power has helped the country punch way above its weight. India was one of the key organisers of the Bandung Conference (1955) on Asian-African cooperation; India and other NAM countries took the initiative to foster close relationships with Africa, with Nehru naming it a ‘sister’ continent. Since then, subsequent governments kept the effort going in developing closer ties — did something go amiss recently that no one rallied to our cause? Nepal and especially the Nepalese army have had an umbilical relationship with us, with many of their generals having been trained at the NDA. The Indian Gurkha regiment regularly recruited Nepalese citizens — why did this stop? From being the chief supporters and architects of the independence of Bangladesh, why do we find ourselves on the opposite side today?
Some Western countries did try to play fair; however, the disquieting thing was the silence of our neighbours.
The conflict in the Middle East threatens to engulf the entire region, with the belligerents bent upon a Machiavellian desire to obliterate the other. Increasingly, technology in the form of drones and missiles gives it an apocalyptic dimension. We see eerie images of the night sky lighting up with the fire trails of missiles and hear haunting sounds of air raid sirens. In Europe, war rages on between Russia supported by its allies and Ukraine backed by NATO. Are there deeper dimensions to these regional wars — of course.
The US hegemony, both economic and military, is being challenged by a combined Russia and China. The old order of NATO, which held strong in the 20th century, is weakened by an increasingly nationalistic America. There is a need for us to be proactive in the formulation and execution of our foreign policy. We must win over our neighbourhood (we cannot choose our neighbours) through shared diplomatic and economic goals.
On the international scene, maintaining silence or being seemingly neutral are not always good options. Sometimes, it is wise to show your hand while keeping an ace up your sleeve. Whenever the question of a ceasefire has come up in the UN regarding the Ukraine war, we have abstained. Similarly, in respect of Gaza, we have abstained. The result is neither the West is happy with us nor Russia. It is time to make amends and develop strong friendships as well as strong deterrence.
Gurbachan Jagat is former Governor, Manipur and ex-DGP, J&K.
