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The Army’s quest to replace INSAS began after Kargil when soldiers reported jamming, heavy recoil and cracked fibre glass magazines in the weapon.

New Delhi: In two weeks from now a factory near the Chambal ravines in Madhya Pradesh will fashion a bullpup. A bullpup is a rifle with a short barrel, its magazine located behind the pistol grip.

In the same time, a team of nine officers from the Indian Army will be globe-trotting in search of a rifle, from the US to Australia.

Guns being made in the Chambal, notorious through the 1970s and the 1980s for dacoits wielding country-made firearms, kattas, is old hat.

Yet, when the Tavor X95 carbine is rolled out from the first private sector small arms factory at Malanpur near Gwalior by a joint venture between Punj Lloyd and Israel Weapons Industries (IWI) named Punj Lloyd Raksha Systems, it will frame a picture that is at once a snapshot of failure as it is promissory.

“The long-term potential market for rifles in India is about 4 million pieces spanning the armed forces and the services under the ministry of home affairs,” says Ashok Wadhawan, president (manufacturing), of the company. “Right now we are looking at the immediate orders for which the search committee will also be visiting Israel.”

Israel did not exist when India formally started making rifles by the banks of the Hooghly at Ishapore near Calcutta in the early 20^th century. The search committee that last week began globe-trotting to choose an assault rifle in the latest drive to replace the Insas 1B1, will be given a demonstration of the Galil by the IWI in Israel.

Wadhawan’s company began operations last year mainly as an exporter of components for assembly by the IWI of Tavor, Galil and Negev guns back home in Israel. The Tavor X95 bullpup it is now fashioning would be its first complete firearm “only for our internal purposes”, he said.

The nine-member Indian Army team will be visiting, apart from Israel, the US to evaluate the M series, Australia for the F90 family, the UAE, to test the Caracal 817AR, and South Korea to check out the S&T Motiv (formerly S&T Daewoo) offering.

Dissatisfaction

The Army’s quest to find a replacement for its standard issue rifle, the INSAS, began shortly after the 1999 Kargil war when soldiers reported jamming, heavy recoil and cracked fibre glass magazines in the weapon.

Despite improvements claimed by the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) and the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), the Army was not satisfied. It rejected the OFB’s latest offering, named the Excalibur.

The inability of India’s defence industry to make a modern rifle is matched by the Army’s tardiness in deciding what it really wanted and the government’s tight-fistedness in giving the funds.

The projected requirement for the army is 7 lakh assault rifles, 4.4 lakh carbines and 41,000 light machine guns. It issued a first request for information to about 12 foreign vendors in 2011. Even after the RFI, the Army toyed with the idea of a rifle capable of firing two different calibres of bullets – the lighter 5.56mm and the heavier but more lethal 7.62mm – from modular, interchangeable barrels.

It dropped the idea in February. The Army chief, General Bipin Rawat, also settled the issue of numbers, slashing them from the original projection to 94,000 assault rifles, 72,000 carbines and 17,000 LMGs.

“It has taken us a while but we have decided on what we need,” a senior infantry officer told ThePrint. The assault rifle is now required to have a range of at least 500 metres and the carbine 300 metres. The numbers have also been decided on the assumption that only 60 per cent of an infantry battalion (of about 800-900 soldiers) are tasked with engaging in direct combat while the others are in supporting roles.

The Indian Army has 382 regular infantry battalions and 60 other combat battalions (mechanised, armoured, scouts).

The modern assault rifles and guns with the longer range of 500m would be issued to those tasked in direct combat within each battalion. The others would be equipped with rifles/carbines of the shorter 300m range. Both would fire 7.62mm bullets.

The AK legacy

For decades, the Indian Army has used the AK-series – and many soldiers even now prefer the AKs to the INSAS – but the search committee will not be visiting Russia. This may be surprising because the Avtomat Kalashnikov (AK)-47 and its variants, products of the early years of the Cold War, are the most widely used firearms by state forces and insurgents alike.

“My thinking is, since a state-of-the art assault rifle will cost about Rs 2 lakh each in the global market, let us issue these only to frontline infantry soldiers who confront the enemy armed only with their rifles,” the Army chief, General Bipin Rawat, explained just before Army Day (15 January) this year. “Let us provide a cheaper indigenous option to other soldiers for whom the rifle is not a primary weapon,” he said.

So is India, Russia’s strategic partner, abandoning that legacy? Not yet. The Army believes that the latest version, the AK-103, could fit the bill for its soldiers in supporting arms and those not directly tasked with engaging the enemy. The AK-103, which may be produced again under license by the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) could well be the “cheaper, indigenous option” the Army chief was suggesting.

For the assault rifles, the selected vendor would have to supply the consignment with night vision devices within 28 months of contract under the “Fast Track Procedure” of the latest Defence Procurement Policy. All of this would be possible if the Army does not change its mind again and the government sticks to a timeline.

Till such time, bullpups in the land of kattas will remain a chimera for the military in a country that has made guns for more than a century.

The lack of consistency of data on these land parcels reveals the risk government runs in administering them

In a marked shift in the way land belonging to the defence ministry is used, it has been decided that transactions in defence lands will be treated as capital receipts. Also, in order to cash in on the value of the real estate held by the defence ministry in metros and big towns, shops located on its land will be made to pay rents at market rates from now on.Both the finance and defence ministries have approved these proposals, which are part of a report filed by a committee set up by the ministry of defence to examine the utilisation of its land bank. Headed by former finance secretary Sumit Bose, the committee was also meant to find ways of bringing order to the land banks in and around the cantonments and monetise them wherever possible.Once introduced, the measures will rationalise the usage of land by the defence ministry, which, according to its own estimates, holds 1.75 million acres across the country. Of this, approximately 9 per cent is situated within the 62 notified cantonments and the rest is located outside these cantonments, as per data with the Directorate General, Defence Estates, a body under the defence ministry. For security reasons, the location of a large part of this land bank is not made public.ALSO READ: Defence Ministry approves military purchases worth over Rs 55 billionThere are no uniform rules on land utilisation by the defence ministry units. And more than one report of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) has pointed to the “unsatisfactory management of defence estates”. In an audit report issued in 2013, the CAG noted that there was misuse of defence land by either local military authorities or unauthorised occupation of land when the lease on them had long expired. These drawbacks, the report went on to say, had been highlighted in previous audit reports too, but the problem has not been solved.In test checks of just six cases spread across Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata and Pune, the CAG report estimated a loss of Rs 8.30 billion to the government because the defence ministry had delayed renewing the lease with the parties concerned. This did not include the Adarsh housing case in Mumbai.However, the defence ministry is not the largest owner of land bank among government departments. That honour goes to the ministry of railways. But the numbers vary. Data gleaned from the government land information system is often at variance with the annual reports of the respective departments of the ministries.For example, at 723,919 acres, the railway ministry’s land back falls short of the land data from the records of the Directorate General, Defence Estates.Again, the land holdings of the ministries of coal, power and heavy industries among others, are reckoned to be larger than that belonging to defence.

As per the latest budget data, the asset register of all land held by the government of India is at Rs 3.52 trillion.The lack of consistency of data on these land parcels reveals the risk government runs in administering them. The Bose committee said that defence land is particularly vulnerable to encroachment as large chunks of it are located in and around cities. A Parliament reply given by defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman earlier this year also acknowledged the scale of the problem.The minister’s reply stated that currently, more than 10,000 acres of defence land have been encroached upon. As the audit reports show, even those under the effective control of the ministry are not well managed.In its recommendations, the Bose committee says that no land parcels should be sold or leased before the decisions are vetted at a centralised level. Plus, the proceeds should not become the income of the cantonments, but should enter the Consolidated Fund of India as capital receipts. The management of the Fund vests with the finance ministry. By ensuring that the money is treated as capital receipts, Parliament will see to it that the money does not disappear in the general revenue stream, and instead, is used to build military assets. This will also cut down chances of corruption in the use of land parcels by unmonitored entities.The committee has also suggested that once the purpose for which a land parcel was given out is over, the local military authorities should hand it out to other parties. Currently, there is no way to track the loss to the government from such transfers.A public interest litigation was filed in the Supreme Court in 2014 by an NGO, asking the Court to give directions to the government to stamp out such practices.In addition, the committee has advised against leasing out shops to private parties in cantonments at concessional rates.Citing the example of Delhi, it has shown that this is a revenue loss for the cantonment and also gives an unfair advantage to those who get the lease at subsidised prices. In fact, it has gone on to suggest that all renewals of lease of shops and establishment on defence land should be at market rates from now.This will of course have a knock-on effect on the real estate sector as the prices of shops in several upscale markets that are built on defence land across the country will likely shoot up. In both Delhi and Mumbai some of the prime shopping centres are built on defence land.The audit reports show that the committee’s report and recommendations are based on strong evidence. Delay in the renewal of lease benefits private parties while the government loses out.For example, in Kolkata, the Royal Calcutta Turf Club has occupied 153.41 acres of prime land in the heart of the city, but the lease for it was not renewed for six years from 2007 to 2013. The delay cost the exchequer Rs 8.14 billion.

Key proposals

• No land parcels should be sold or leased before the decisions are vetted at a centralised level
• The proceeds should not become the income of the cantonments, but should enter the Consolidated
• Fund of India as capital receipts
• All renewals of lease of shops and establishment on defence land should be at market rates

*From a report filed by a panel set up by the defence ministry to examine the utilisation of its land bank

Col HP Singh (retd)

RECENTLY our batch celebrated its silver jubilee of adorning the olive green uniform. The past six months had been full of excitement which climaxed at our alma mater, the Indian Military Academy, Dehradun. What was conceived to be a routine get-together, turned out to be a mega event, with over a third of the surviving members making it for the occasion — some even travelling from across the globe. Meeting our ‘buddies for life’ was a wonderful travel back in time to the early 1990s; nostalgia was evident as we relived the memories of those difficult training days when grass became green more by our sweat than rain. Though many names were forgotten and many were unrecognisable, it didn’t take much time to connect back with our brothers in arms.  The youthful looks of the bygone era were replaced by receding hairlines and increasing waistlines, but the glint in everyone’s eyes indicated a strong defiance of age. While the appearance of almost everyone had changed significantly, their ‘typical characteristic traits’ had fortunately remained the same.   A significant number of our colleagues were not around, having made the supreme sacrifice on the call of duty. This included the Sword of Honour (First in order of merit at the time of commissioning) of the batch who led from the front even in death. There were many moist eyes when we laid wreaths at the memorial of our fallen comrades. Some had signatures of combat on their bodies, having seen Lord Yamraj from very close quarters. Then there was a category of premature retirees who, though having shed their uniforms, still exhibited a strong military bond. For three days we relived an era, danced and laughed together creating memories for life. Given the euphoria and energy exhibited it was evident that we had not grown much. Anecdotes of our cadets days were narrated much to the amusement of our spouses. Our children, though visibly embarrassed at our juvenile behaviour, would certainly have been motivated to follow suit and join the noble profession. At the end of the bonhomie there was standing ovation with a thunderous applause for the organisers of the event, volunteers from our own stock, who were instrumental in getting people together, many of whom had not met even once since commissioning. It was, indeed, a splendid way to celebrate the special bond of camaraderie;  the hangover of which is going to last for a long time. When it was time to say goodbye my heart choked once again, the way it had done a quarter of a century ago while marching through the Antim Pag, or the final step, to commissioning into the Army. As we bid au revoir, we took a pledge to meet again for the golden jubilee celebrations! Till then, we shall relive the moments in the ‘clicks’ of the event captured in our cellphones. Many would not be around and many would be constrained by health, but our souls will certainly grace the occasion because ‘Soldiers never die, they only fade away’.

India will have to do tight-rope walking with all five: US, Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)STRATEGIC policy formulation at best of times isn’t easy. There are always some factors fully under control; some are straws in the wind and others remain perched somewhere on a high shelf not within easy reach. Mid-2018 is one of those junctures when nothing seems pegged in certainty. It happened in 1989 too when the world was in reset. It seems it is in even greater reset today. A review of the indicators and symptoms will help with the uncertainty. It must start with India’s relations with the big powers. The promising Indo-US strategic partnership seems to have taken a temporary halt as the US resets in priorities and threat perception. Trump’s elation at his perceived success in the Korean peninsula is likely to give him an out-of-proportion perception of his own capability to handle intractable conflicts. During her visit to New Delhi, Nikki Haley stated that she would not be here if India was not high in US strategic priority. Yet, the second postponement of the 2+2 dialogue, slated to be held in Washington in early July, is being interpreted negatively as “buying time for reconsideration”. Quite clearly India is being coerced to come on the line on several issues. In no particular priority, the first is Iran. With Europe uncertain on how to treat future US sanctions on Iran after the US pullout from the Iran nuclear deal, and China far too dependent on Iranian energy, the US is attempting to coercively secure the cooperation of middle powers. Turkey has refused and the Middle East alone isn’t going to make any difference. It’s a big buyer such as India that will help strangulate Iran’s economy. For India, Iran is too important, not just for energy, but for access to Eurasia, Afghanistan and Central Asia, all strategically crucial regions; much time, energy and resources have been sunk into Chahbahar to make that difference. Till India does not relent on Iran in a definitive way, the US attitude will continue. India’s stance is as yet ambivalent although bordering on acquiescence.The US, more than any other nation, is aware of its dwindling power under Trump. With the concept of time-tested partnerships giving way to US isolationism and “America First”, the distribution of power is up for grabs. With a “neither here nor there” dealing with Russia and an attitude hell-bent on pushing Moscow firmly into the Chinese grip, the US wants India to back off from its time-tested partner. The last straw on the back was the Indian decision to seriously consider a Rs 40,000 crore purchase of the Russian S-400 Triumf Air Defence system for six of its air defence units. One of the world’s finest air defence systems, India decided to pitch for it as part of its return to Russia as a key arms supplier and strategic partner. Resetting ties with Russia is considered a major part of the retention of balance in relationships; a virtual return to a more equitably aligned status. However, the US has informally mentioned the application of Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) to India should this deal be pursued, even as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has apparently pushed for legislative waiver for India and some other countries. The waiver is as uncertain as any US strategic policy of the current times. On China, India’s earlier decisions to be seen as part of the US-Japan combine and the commitment towards the “Quad” have now given way to a re-examination, bordering on retention of bilaterals with all these nations without multilateral equations. No doubt, it’s part of the ongoing reset after the dangerous Doklam standoff. Wuhan followed by Sochi exemplified India’s perception that it may have left Chinese and Russian strategic concerns out of consideration in its eagerness to set its ties with the US. A military confrontation with China would leave India relatively isolated without fallback options. To its credit, China has not held back and has been forthcoming in this reset. Its perception of a new world order does include a greater role in India’s neighbourhood and it is attempting to formalise that through a 2+1 format, whereby both India and China can jointly engage a third regional country. There is no certainty on how China wishes to actually handle the US trade war coercion, but obviously its economy is also deeply linked with the US and brave statements may not find practical backing in an era of increasing economic uncertainty.That brings us to Pakistan, which, for India, remains important notwithstanding perceptions that India should be concerned about bigger things. With smaller discomforts which draw public attention, no Indian Government can afford to ignore threats from that direction. With elections due in Pakistan on July 25 uncertainty again prevails. The completion of the electoral process holds no portend of greater stability in Pakistan if the army-backed Imran Khan and his Tehreek-e-Insaf party come to power. Even if Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League wins, the army will ensure its paralysis. Either way, Pakistan is not a nation with whom peace parleys can be expected anytime in the near future. No big power will go beyond FATF pressure to rein in Pakistan and India has to find the means of neutralising it without international support. The brilliant piece of Indian diplomacy at the beginning of 2018 witnessed outreach to ASEAN and effective straddling of the Middle East political and sectarian divide with Israeli and Iranian visits to New Delhi in quick succession and PM Modi’s rapid-fire moves with Palestine, Jordan, the UAE and Oman. Modi’s decision to follow with Wuhan, Sochi and Qingdao (SCO) were brave attempts at reset which should help straddle the period of uncertainty. What India needs to do is to ensure that its strategic independence is least compromised and its interests must scan issues far beyond just expression of satisfaction on FATF grey listing of Pakistan. That too bears its relevance, but imperative is keeping eyes peeled on the greater developments that are witnessing the shifting and distribution of international power. Not much may change with China, Russia or Europe, but the US has elections coming up that could significantly change the political landscape in six months. No formal new order is likely to emerge, but whatever shape it does take, India should aim to be supping at a higher table.

The drill was the first such reported exercise in Tibet since the Doklam standoff. — Photo for representation

Beijing, June 29

Chinese military stationed in Tibet has carried out a drill to test their logistics, armament support capabilities and military-civilian integration in the remote Himalayan region, official media reported here on Friday.The drill carried out by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) units on Tuesday was the first such reported exercise in Tibet since the Doklam standoff.State-run ‘Global Times’ which reported the drill also cited the PLA’s 13-hour long exercise conducted at an elevation of 4,600 metres in August last year.Analysts hailed the Tuesday’s drill, which was held in cooperation with local companies and government, as an important move toward military-civilian integration, a strategy to realise the country’s goal of building a strong military in the new era, the report said.An important component of the drill was the military-civilian integration strategy, a key component in Tibet where the Dalai Lama’s legacy still lingers on.The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has an adverse climate and complex topography. Over a long period of time, it is very difficult to provide soldiers with logistics and armament support, the report said.To solve the difficulties in personnel survival, delivery, material supply, rescue, emergency maintenance and road safety, the military has adopted a military-civilian integration strategy and constantly advanced logistics support capabilities, Zhang Wenlong, head of the command logistics support department, was quoted as saying by the state-run Xinhua News Agency.Zhang said the drill aimed to explore a new mode of military-civilian integration in the plateau command following the reshuffle of the military system.During the drill, a local petroleum company supplied fuel immediately when the armoured unit ran out of fuel and the city government of Lhasa delivered a steady flow of food to soldiers after a day of mock battle, the report said.“The biggest challenge of battle at the high altitude is to provide sustainable logistics and armament support. In the 1962 China-India border conflict, China failed to protect its fruits of victory due to poor logistics support. Although local Tibetan residents provided soldiers with temporary support, it was not sustainable,” Song Zhongping, a military expert, told the Global Times.“The drill showed that military-civilian integration is a feasible strategy and could help form stronger combat power,” he added. — PTI

Tribune News Service

Tarn Taran, June 27

The local police have booked a medical store owner, his wife and accomplices in connection with the murderous attack on an ex-serviceman.The incident raises a question mark on police functioning besides pointing to a nexus between drug peddlers and police.The ex-serviceman, Jasbir Singh (53), has been protesting against the alleged drug abuse rampant in his native village for the past five years, which did not go down well with the accused.He was allegedly assaulted by the accused while he was taking tea at his house on Tuesday morning. He was admitted to the Civil Hospital with injuries on legs and arms.“I have been regularly complaining about the rampant sale of drugs by the medical store owner and his wife for years, but police did nothing to nail the couple,” he claimed.Following the incident, the police have now booked medical store owner Gurdeep Singh, wife Raj Kaur, and Happy and Kala of the same village. No arrests have been made as the accused are absconding following the incident.Jasbir alleged that Gurdeep was a quack and under the guise of running the medical store he peddled drugs. He said that around a year ago too, he had faced a similar attack but the authorities had pressed him to reach a compromise.He said his brother-in-law Ranjit Singh (45) had died of drug abuse five years ago and he was now looking after his sister’s family. He said the incident had left him shocked and he decided to fight the scourge. He said there were a number of points where drugs are sold openly while the police looked the other way. “Everybody knew this, but no one takes action,” he alleged.Taking a serious note of the incident, Deputy Commissioner Pardeep Sabharwal deputed Additional Deputy Commissioner Sandeep Rishi to probe the matter. Rishi visited the hospital on Wednesday and recorded the victim’s statement.Tarn Taran City SHO said raids were on to nab the culprits. He said the police were doing their job and no one indulging in the illegal sale of drugs would be spared.Couple booked on murder chargesMeanwhile, the Chabal police have booked one Sahib Singh and wife Babli of Jagatpur village on charges of murder, attempt to murder and under the NDPS Act in connection with the death of Gurjant Singh (23). Two of his friends Sarwan Singh and Harjit Singh of Emma village had fallen seriously ill after consuming drugs allegedly procured from the couple.SHO Manoj Kumar said the three had bought an intoxicant injection from the couple after using which Gurjant died and the other two fell unconscious.

Pratibha Chauhan

Tribune News Service

Shimla, June 20

The district administration has started the process of installing low cost-sensors, developed by IIT-Mandi, at 10 landslide-prone spots on the Mandi national highway. The sensors will help monitor landslide and act as an early warning system.Earlier, the administration had approached IIT-Mandi to install these sensors at 10 sites. One of the landslide-prone sites is Kotrupi in Mandi district where 47 persons were buried under the debris following a massive landslide in August last year. A 300-metre stretch of the National Highway-154 was buried under the debris.“Since landslides are a major hazard, we decided to assign the task of installing sensors, developed by students, to IIT-Mandi, as a pilot project to minimise the loss to life and property,” said Rugved Thakur, Mandi DC.He said all 10 sites, five each on either side of the NH-154 near Mandi, would have sensors. Though one sensor was installed at Deod in February 2018, it had to be removed before any conclusive data could be collected due to the start of the four-laning project. The National Remote Sensing Centre of ISRO in Hyderabad had undertaken a study of the Kotrupi landslide. The study had pointed out that geologically, the area was in a thrusted contact between the Shivaliks and Shali group of rocks consisting of dolomite, brick red shale, micaceous sandstones, purple clay and mud stones, which are highly prone to landslides.“Normally, the cost of installing one sensor could be around Rs 1 crore, but we have developed these low-cost sensors. Their installation cost will be a mere Rs 11,000, along with Rs 5,000 running and maintenance cost per annum,” said Dr Venkata Uday Kala.He said IIT-Mandi had applied for patenting of this technology with the India Patent Cell and the International Patent Cell at Switzerland.Dr Kala said a company had been set up to render services to those interested in installing these sensors. The sensors could prove to be a watershed in minimising the loss by landslides, which have claimed several lives.

Saving lives

• One of the landslide-prone sites is Kotrupi in Mandi district (pic) where 47 persons were buried under the debris following a massive landslide in August last year. A 300-metre stretch of the National Highway-154 was buried under the debris.
• Though one sensor was installed at Deod in February 2018, it had to be removed before any conclusive data could be collected due to the start of the four-laning project.
• The installation cost of these sensors will be a mere Rs 11,000, along with  Rs 5,000 running and maintenance cost per annum.

Vijay Mohan

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, June 15

The Indo-Tibetan Border Police Force (ITBP) is cracking the whip on unauthorised retention of manpower for personal use by senior serving and retired officers as well as civilian officers.In a signal sent to all formations of the force this week, the ITBP’s Directorate General in New Delhi has sought by June 20 a list of unit personnel detailed with retired ITBP officers, including those who have remained on deputation with the ITBP, at their residences or other places, sources said.According to a senior officer, the orders have been issued based on a recent directive from the Ministry of Home Affairs that had taken cognisance of reports that members of Central Armed Police Forces were being attached with offices and residences of serving or even retired officers in violation of government policy and stipulated regulations.In addition to particulars of personnel detailed for duty other than bonafide government work, details have also been sought of ITBP personnel attached with civilian officers and also of those personnel retained by serving officers who have been posted out of the ITBP after completing their period of deputation.The issue of unauthorised or additional manpower being used by senior officers of the CAPFs as well as the Armed Forces to tend to their personal work or domestic chores has been repeatedly raised at various forums and the matter has also echoed in Parliament.Recent reports of 32 personnel being deployed at the residence of a senior IPS officer in Hyderabad and a top officer deploying Border Security Force personnel at the venue of his daughter’s wedding near Chandigarh point towards this misuse. A few years ago, an Inspector General in Punjab was suspended for allegedly deploying more than 30 personnel for personal errands without any sanction by the state police chief.Directing the formations to furnish the details, duly certified by the unit commander, by June 20, the ITBP headquarters has also warned that in case of any discrepancy found in the information, the unit concerned or formation would be held responsible.

Seeks list of personnel detailed with officers

• The ITBP’s Directorate General in New Delhi has sought by June 20 a list of unit personnel detailed with retired ITBP officers, including those who have remained on deputation with the ITBP, at their residences or other places

Cessation of operations is in larger interest but cross-currents make extension difficult

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (retd)Arguments in favour of the initiation of suspension of operations for the Ramzan period in J&K are well behind us. The killing of senior journalist Shujat Bukhari has cast an ominous shadow. It was the extension which was in focus and there were several competing and compelling factors that created confusion and lack of clarity. The government may not extend the suspension of operations, but it needs to be reasoned through with informed debate. It starts with the pertinent question: Was the purpose achieved? If the purpose was peace and calm with zero turbulence, it was a wrong assumption. The expectation should have been a qualified sense of peace prevailing in a region where violence has been an everyday phenomenon. To that end, sporadic incidents continued but the big-ticket event has taken place with Bukhari’s killing may have ended the debate. In the week preceding Id-ul-Fitr, it was important for terrorists and separatists to convey their disagreement and clarify their intent on the continuation of violence as a means to attain their aim. It led to some horrendous violence, with a CRPF vehicle being targeted and a demonstrator being crushed to death. For those who advised against any break in operational momentum, this was adrenaline and the argument for an extension weakened. Bukhari’s killing has capped it.The visit of Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh followed immediately; it is surprising how quickly things change in Kashmir. This time the optics for those favouring continuation appeared strong. The Home Minister appeared inclined towards recommending an extension, but this was an issue beyond just optics. There can be no doubt about the J&K CID report that successful counter-terror operations are paradoxically also fuelling greater militant response and helping in the recruitment of local youth whose sentiments are aroused at funerals of slain terrorists. Yet, the political leadership at the Centre had cross-currents to view. The J&K Chief Minister had a strong argument that her government could not adopt counter-narratives with passions continuing to flow due to offensive operations by the security forces. This argument was reinforced by the fact that while there may have been an upswing in the average number of incidents for the corresponding period, the casualty figures were much lower and funerals had been few and far between, with only two local terrorists killed in operations. The opposite view was equally buttressed: with lower figures of terrorists eliminated, the momentum of operations had seen a decline and that could see an upsurge in violence in coming months, especially in view of infiltration attempts. Two additional important issues were relevant and begged attention. First, the period saw no particular display of energy towards outreach, political activity of any worth, or the spelling of counter-narratives. To this, the counter-argument was that after years of political inactivity at the grassroots, the same would take time to pick up; there existed an element of fear about moving into the rural countryside with the prevailing security situation and would need special persuasion to make it happen. On the issue of outreach, the Home Minister’s visit did showcase some initiatives of the J&K Government, especially in the field of sports and youth power. The peripheral areas not in the vortex of South Kashmir’s violence-prone zone are undoubtedly witnessing such activity and it’s the government’s case that these would subsequently creep into the southern belt. In other words, it was all about time as nothing for effect could be done at break-neck speed. The second significant issue was the upcoming Amarnath Yatra, the security of which, by experience, needs preparation through relentless domination operations. Such domination involves sanitisation of the upper reaches from Pahalgam which does not affect the population. It is the second element of sanitisation, from Ramban, on to Anantnag and Pahalgam, which involves densely populated areas that have been in the throes of militancy. It is near Anantnag that yatris were attacked in 2017. The Centre could ill afford any repetition of the attack. Already under a reasonable degree of electoral pressure, the Centre probably views an extension of the suspension of operations as a dilution of the effectiveness of preparation for the yatra. The question was: Could it afford such a risk? Pragmatic opinion would elicit a negative response, although it would be fair to also inform the public that suspension of operations does not involve any let-up in domination operations. In such situations, it is not reality, but perception which holds the sentiment. The arguments on both sides, therefore, appeared almost equally weighted. The Centre may have been compelled to turn to yet another factor which plays no mean role in influencing opinion — ceasefire at the LoC and the Jammu segment of the international border (IB). There is no tactical connect between the suspension of operations and the LoC ceasefire. However, at the strategic level, it is all about the creation of an environment conducive to taking the next steps towards any form of peace. The decision to go back and implement the 2003 ceasefire arrangement — not agreement as erroneously reported many times — more effectively was well received by most quarters in India due to the unnecessary suffering of the civil population in the IB belt. However, with a sudden upswing in infiltration attempts in North Kashmir, Pakistan army’s intent is under question. The six successful counter-infiltration operations in the last few weeks means that the infusion of foreign terrorists into the Valley remains Pakistan’s priority.  That by itself may yet have held water, but the spate of ceasefire violations in the IB belt, culminating in a virtual deliberate ambush of the BSF in our territory, gave no indicator of any change of Pakistan’s heart or intent. When factored into the larger proxy conflict in J&K, these two inputs make the suspension of operations and ceasefire a virtual mockery. Such measures are undertaken to give peace a chance, but if peace is assessed to have virtually no chance then the camp advocating the stoppage of all this perhaps wins. Analysts have been arguing that in view of the ongoing very serious reset in India’s foreign policy, and by implication security policy, perhaps giving peace a chance in J&K may have been an enabler for better things to emerge. However, in view of the lack of seriousness on the part of those who have to clap along with us to make that happen — Pakistan and the separatists — the Centre found it necessary to call it a day on the suspension of operations. Another day, another time; perhaps.