Monthly Archives: August 2018

Julio Ribeiro

Described as a ‘radical preacher’, Amritpal Singh aspires to be the next Bhindranwale. That aim will not be easy to achieve. Bhindranwale was the product of political machinations gone awry. Amritpal obviously wants to exploit the current gloomy mood of Punjabi youth, caused by unemployment and the rising prices of essential commodities, and aggravated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict with its implications for global economy.

Amritpal can’t be allowed to become larger than life. He has to be contained before he assumes an aura of invincibility.

According to media reports, the police had arrested one of his associates, Lovepreet Singh ‘Toofan’, for allegedly kidnapping and assaulting Varinder Singh of Chamkaur Sahib. Amritpal had also been named in the FIR lodged at the Ajnala police station. Amritpal announced a march to the police station to demand Lovepreet’s release. Anticipating trouble, police personnel were drawn from neighbouring police stations and deployed at Ajnala.

Barricades had been set up, yet a massive crowd of supporters of Amritpal and his Waris Punjab De outfit, armed with swords and a few with guns, stormed the barricades, entered the police station and caused extensive damage to government property. A hundred trained policemen, given implicit instructions on what they should do if attacked by a mob, should normally have been able to deal with the mob and disperse it. But if they had not been told clearly of the type and extent of force they could use to counter violence by the mob, the situation was destined to get out of control, and it did! I would squarely categorise the response as a failure of the police leadership and the state’s political leadership for not making its intention clear.

I would frown at armchair criticism of the police when dealing with piquant situations. On the ground, it is never easy to take quick decisions as events unravel in front of the police officer in charge on the spot. If he is a confident individual with his wits about him, the public should accept the decision, even if the results turn sour. It is the intent of the decision-maker that should matter.

Senior IPS officers turned up later, according to the reports, and held talks with Amritpal. He seemed to have convinced the Police Commissioner of Amritsar and the Ajnala SSP that Lovepreet was not the man involved in kidnapping Varinder! The senior officers agreed to release Lovepreet. This capitulation is what will trouble the police and the political leadership henceforth.

Lovepreet had been named by Varinder in his initial complaint. What the police needed to do was to check whether there actually had been a kidnapping. Who thrashed Varinder? It was reported that he had objected to Amritpal’s utterances, and, if that is true, a motive for the assault was available.

The Ajnala police would have kept their supervising officers in the loop on such an important political happening. Deputing extra forces from neighbouring police stations could have been ordered only by an officer with the authority over all five police stations. If reserves were deputed from the armed battalion, the order could only have been issued from the state DGP’s office. There is no way the seniors can claim that they were not in the know of the decision to arrest the men named in the FIR.

It is the police capitulation to the radical preacher that will come back to haunt the administration. I see the hand of the political leadership in this surrender to unlawful demands. There is no way the CM was kept out of the loop. It is evident that the AAP government led by Bhagwant Mann is still to find its feet on the security front. It could be its Achilles’ heel.

An even worse scenario now is the possible recrudescence of terror in this sensitive border state. Our neighbour, mired in an economic morass, will try to fish in troubled waters across the border. In the 1980s, it had provided training and given shelter to Khalistani terrorists. It had also facilitated the movement of arms across the border. The neighbour will touch base with Amritpal, if it has not done so already.

NSA Ajit Doval is best placed to intervene. He knows what to do, how it has got to be done and who should be entrusted with the task. Amritpal cannot be permitted to become larger than life. He has to be contained before he assumes an aura of invincibility. He has tasted victory in Ajnala. Consequently, support to him in Punjab will increase.

The Union Government may try to leverage the state government’s failure in Ajnala to gain political advantage in a state that has not welcomed the BJP. It will be a mistake to do so. The AAP was voted to power with a massive majority. Mann was propelled to the CM’s chair as the Sikh face of the AAP. The BJP has its own Sikh face in Capt Amarinder Singh, but he is a spent force. The wiser option for the Modi government is to leave this state alone lest it should burn its fingers.

An even worse option would be to play politics because Mann and his party have been pushed into a corner by a tyro who till last year was a clean-shaven Sikh living a nondescript life in Dubai. Sensing an opportunity for his latent talents, he grew a beard, started wearing clothes that imitated those of Bhindranwale and made his supporters carry Guru Granth Sahib to deter the police from acting.

The opportunity to nip the trouble in the bud having been lost, the task of the leadership, both political and police, will now be made difficult. The AAP government should seek Doval’s help. He can do so behind the proverbial curtain without announcing his role of adviser. A double-pronged approach would be required. The bulk of the population, the Jat Sikh farmers in the villages, had suffered the ravages of terrorism in the 1980s and early 1990s. They can be won over by well-reasoned arguments on multiple fora.

At the same time, as the communication lines with the masses are developed, a quick rounding up of Amritpal and his cronies should be effected. All laws the BJP governments use against their political opponents and critics should be used against this looming menace before it bites both the state government and the Centre.

New Delhi, March 1

A drone that was shot down by the Border Security Force along the India-Pakistan international border in Punjab last year had taken flight and had ‘footprints’ in China and Pakistan, a BSF spokesperson said on Wednesday quoting a forensic analysis report. 

The quadcopter was downed on December 25, 2022 near the Rajatal border post in Punjab’s Amritsar district. 

A forensic analysis of the drone found that it flew in Fengxian district in Shanghai, China on 11.06.2022 and later it was flown from 24.09.2022 to 25.12.2022 for 28 times “within” Khanewal district of Punjab in Pakistan, the spokesperson said.   

An FIR on the illegal activity of the drone and its shooting on the Indian side was filed by the Border Security Force (BSF) with the Amritsar district police last year, he said.

The BSF, that is tasked to guard the India-Pakistan border, has set up a forensic analysis laboratory for drones at a camp in the national capital where it culls out data from the chips of the seized drones and studies its flight path and other scientific details.

A total of 22 drones or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) coming across from Pakistan were shot down by the BSF last year. All these downings took place along the international border in Punjab.

While one drone each was shot down in Punjab and Jammu during the entire 2020 and 2021, six have been brought down or seized by the force till February 20 this year. Out of the six drones caught during 2023, four captures were made in Punjab and the rest in Rajasthan.

According to official data, the drone sightings along the 2,289 km long India-Pakistan international border running along Jammu, Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat have increased from 77 sightings in 2020 to 104 in 2021 and more than 311 sightings during last year. Almost 75 per cent of these sightings have been made in Punjab where drones have been majorly used by the other side to push in and drop drugs and arms. 

The BSF has earlier said a number of the drones shot or recovered were made in China.

AP

Taipei, March 1

China sent 25 warplanes and three warships toward Taiwan on Wednesday morning, the island’s Defence Ministry said, as tensions remain high between Beijing and Taipei’s main backer Washington.

The ministry said 19 of those planes crossed into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, while the ships were continuing to operate in the Taiwan Strait. It said Taiwan responded by scrambling fighters, dispatching ships and activating coastal missile defence systems to “closely monitor and respond.”          China stages such incursions on a near-daily basis, part of what are termed “gray zone” tactics, aimed at intimidation and wearing down Taiwan’s equipment, exhausting its personnel and degrading public morale. Those also include cyberwarfare and disinformation campaigns, along with a relentless drive to deprive Taiwan of diplomatic allies.

Taiwan has responded by upgrading its fleet of F-16 fighter jets and ordering 66 more of the planes from the US, while purchasing a range of other weaponry and extending its mandatory term of military service for all males from four months to one year.

Relations between Beijing and Washington, Taiwan’s primary ally and source of defensive weaponry, have spiralled over China’s actions toward the island, trade, technology and the South China Sea.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken cancelled a visit to Beijing last month after the US shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon off the US east coast, drawing furious protests from China.

China claims Taiwan as its own territory to be brought under its control by force if necessary, and has been rapidly expanding its military to meet that challenge should it arise.

In memos and testimony, top US officers have called for heightened preparations, saying China sees a shrinking window for action and may move on Taiwan within a few years.

China says it prefers peaceful unification between the sides, but the Taiwanese public overwhelmingly favours the current state of de-facto independence.

Wednesday’s incursions were relatively modest by recent standards. During China’s National Day weekend in 2021, Beijing dispatched 149 military aircraft southwest of Taiwan in strike group formations.

In August, in response to a trip to Taiwan by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, China staged war games surrounding the island simulating a blockade and fired missiles over it into the Pacific Ocean.

Along with ordering new hardware from the US, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has been pushing for a revitalisation of the domestic defence industry, including producing conventionally powered submarines. 

The Union Cabinet has approved procurement of 70 HTT-40 Basic Trainer Aircraft from Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for the Indian Air Force (IAF) at a cost of Rs 6,828.36 crore. The aircraft will be supplied over a period of six years.
Tribune News Service

New Delhi, March 1

The Union Cabinet has approved procurement of 70 HTT-40 Basic Trainer Aircraft from Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for the Indian Air Force (IAF) at a cost of Rs 6,828.36 crore. The aircraft will be supplied over a period of six years.

Turboprop trainer

• HTT-40 is a turboprop aircraft designed to have good low-speed handling qualities and provide better training effectiveness
• It has an air-conditioned cockpit, modern avionics and eje tion seats

The Cabinet has also approved to sign a contract with Larsen & Toubro Limited (L&T) for the acquisition of three cadet training ships at an overall cost of Rs 3,108 crore. The delivery of ships is scheduled to commence in 2026.

HTT-40 is a turboprop aircraft designed to have good low-speed handling qualities and provide better training effectiveness. The trainer plane has an air-conditioned cockpit, modern avionics and ejection seats, says the Ministry of Defence (MoD).

The aircraft will meet the shortage of basic trainer aircraft of the IAF for the training of newly inducted pilots. The procurement will include associated equipment and training aids, including simulators.

HTT-40 contains 56 per cent indigenous content, which will progressively increase to over 60 per cent through indigenisation of major components and subsystems. HAL will engage Indian private industry, including MSMEs, in its supply chain.

As for the ships, the MoD said these would cater to the training of officer cadets, including women, at sea after their basic training to meet the future requirements of the Navy. The ships would also provide training to cadets from friendly countries in order to strengthen diplomatic relations. The ships can also be deployed for evacuation purposes and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations.

The ships will be indigenously designed, developed and constructed at the L&T shipyard in Kattupalli, Chennai. “This will encourage active participation of Indian shipbuilding and associated industries, including MSMEs,” added the MoD.

PAYMENT OF ARREARS BY 15 MARCH ORDER

Air Vice Marshal Manmohan Bahadur (Retd)

AH, the titbits of life that were shrugged off when young! But as one mellows with age, and no boss to humour except your better half, those memories waft in.

It was an afternoon back in August 1978 at the Army helipad on the Indus riverbank at Kiari, 30 minutes flying from Leh. I was getting my Chetak helicopter refuelled. Push the hollow dip stick in the barrel to pipette out the fuel, drain it in a glass, put water detection capsules — and if they remained white (and not turn pink), start putting fuel in the helicopter. And as we were having chai and hot pakoras in the aircrew tent, came the dull hum of an approaching aircraft. The jawan serving us rushed out, and I followed out of curiosity. It was quite a sight — jawans on both sides of the river craning their necks in the sky. And as the An-12 flying to Leh came into view, a tiny speck above the towering hills, the jawan said with a wide unforgettable grin, ‘Sahab, An (as the An-12 was known) aa gaya — aaj mail aaegi’. By evening, a truck carrying the most precious of cargoes — letters — would reach Kiari. The sight of the An-12 and the hum of its engines brought joy that only a jawan posted in a field area could experience.

A field commander has myriad issues to address — discipline, operational training, living areas, timely rations… the list is endless; but some things are different. Being the commander of the first IAF United Nations mission in Sudan in 2005, besides the usual tasks whose completion indicated that all was fine, there was one occurrence that stressed me. Dealing with functional toilets in our desolate location was a pressing concern. Our toilets emptied into ground pits and since the black soil had low porosity, they filled up quickly. The UN administration would send the toilet cleaning truck, called ‘honey sucker’, just once a week. The sight of the honey-sucker driving into the camp got me a smile that my wife would envy!

And talking of my wife, well, when we got engaged in mid-1979, hearing your fiancé’s voice was pure ecstasy. But there was a problem. One had to go to the Jammu head post office, book the call and wait with others in queue. And wait, and wait. The chances of the call maturing were minuscule. But those three occasions, when the booking clerk yelled ‘Rae Bareli call’, brought a joy that only those who were engaged to be married in those pre-cellphone days know!

Ceasefire may happen eventually, but the hostility is sure to endure

ntractable: The Ukraine war is a fratricidal conflict for Russia. ap
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Vivek Katju

Ex-Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs

The Ukraine situation has become intractable. At its core, for Russia, and especially for President Vladimir Putin, it is a fratricidal conflict. His invasion of and war on Ukraine are products of his deep-seated conviction that the Ukrainian government’s geopolitical actions constitute a continuing betrayal of a historically embedded sacred commonality. On the other hand, Ukraine’s leadership and the majority of its people do not share Putin’s emotions of enduring bonds; other than the Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the eastern and southern parts of the country, the rest moved on, either in the past or more recently, to pursue new directions, to chart their destiny independent of Russia.

Western pressures will increase on India to formally take a position on the Russian invasion.

For Putin, the Ukrainian government, after the Maidan Revolution of 2014, not only turned its back on common bonds but also it actively helped Western machinations to undermine Russia’s security. It was guilty of an unacceptable double betrayal. While the Ukrainian government and its Western backers asserted the right of sovereignty, for Putin, not only a brother had broken fraternal bonds, he had joined hands with the enemy. This was intolerable particularly as the enemy had broken assurances given to the Soviet Union that its agreement to the unification of Germany and changes in central and eastern Europe would not jeopardise Russian security; that NATO would not be expanded eastwards. Of course there were no written agreements between NATO and the Soviet Union regarding NATO’s eastward expansion but there is material in the public domain that senior US officials gave verbal assurances to their Soviet counterparts on this issue.

Over the past two decades, NATO relentlessly expanded eastwards despite Russian warnings. Fourteen countries joined NATO between 1999 and 2020. The West led by the US disregarded Russian protests, giving rise to a feeling that it was only a question of time before Ukraine was taken into the EU fold and thereafter into NATO. Putin’s insecurity rose and certainly the Western leadership should have taken that into account but his invasion of Ukraine cannot be justified. Russia’s invasion and war are violations of the basic principles of the UN by a permanent member of the Security Council which is responsible for the maintenance of international peace and security.

The war has not gone to Putin’s plan. The Russian army was unable to deliver on his first objective of creating conditions for the fall of the Volodymyr Zelenskyy regime and the installation of a Russia friendly government. That would have been possible through a lightning move to capture Kyiv. But the Russian forces got bogged down in the initial weeks, giving time to Zelenskyy to rally his people and for the West to come to Ukraine’s aid with a massive supply of weaponry and for the overwhelming majority of UN member-states to condemn the Russian invasion.

The action came as a profound shock to the European conviction of its exceptionalism. It also shook the continent’s security architecture. Neither Europe nor NATO could accept that any state blatantly used force to change a European state’s territories and attempt regime change. Thwarted in his initial aims, Putin was left with no alternative but to abandon the idea of regime change and limit his war aims to the Russian-speaking areas of eastern and southern Ukraine. He upped the ante by amalgamating Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia into Russia. It will now be very difficult for him or any Russian government to reverse this decision. Thus, the conflict has become intractable, for it is difficult to conceive that Ukraine or NATO will agree to these areas formally and legally becoming part of Russia. Therefore, the way out is through a search for creative diplomatic solutions which would begin with a ceasefire.

The chances for a ceasefire are low in the foreseeable future. The US and its allies are increasing economic and financial pressure on Russia through the application of sanctions and continuing military pressure through the supply of more sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine. They hope that these will bite the Russian people who will demand from Putin a change in his stance on Ukraine. This is improbable because of entrenched Russian nationalism. In these circumstances, the international community’s appeal to the warring parties to give diplomacy and dialogue an opportunity is unlikely to be heeded at an early date. Armed hostilities will drag on. If the US supplies weapons which will enable Ukraine to carry the fight into internationally recognised Russian territory, the situation will become very dangerous. Putin has warned that that can have incalculable repercussions — a reference to a possible nuclear dimension coming into play.

Since World War II, the US and Russia’s predecessor states suffered strategic defeats, the former in Vietnam and Afghanistan, and the latter in Afghanistan. However, the Ukraine situation is different, for it is fratricidal for Russia. A ceasefire may happen, but the conflict will endure. However, there is no early prospect of a ceasefire. Meanwhile, the international community has come to terms with the immense difficulties in food and energy supplies caused by the war. In this process, the Global South has borne a disproportionate cost of the war.

Indian diplomacy has, as yet, managed the difficult situation arising out of the conflict well. However, there is little doubt that Western pressures will increase on India to formally take a position on the Russian invasion, even though India has stressed the paths of diplomacy to Russia and PM Modi has publicly spoken against the resort to war in Putin’s presence. With India currently having G20’s rotational presidency, the West will expect Modi to play a more active diplomatic role to find a solution, at least for a ceasefire. The conditions, though, are not conducive for Modi to play such a role, for the parties concerned remain rigid.

The Centre may pretend that law and order is a state subject, and consequently, it is the AAP govt that needs to act, but this is a half-truth. Crucially, the BJP’s broad Hindutva project creates a reflexive justification for Khalistani separatism. If the demand for a ‘Hindu India’ is legitimate, so must be the demand for a Sikh ‘Khalistan’.

INCOMPREHENSIBLE: Why have the Central agencies failed to act against Amritpal Singh? PTI

Ajai Sahni

Executive Director, Institute for Conflict Management & South Asia terrorism portal

PUNJAB is experiencing a tragedy unfolding in very slow motion, and, as in the end-1970s and early 1980s, this time around as well, this occurs against the backdrop of an acute Centre-state rivalry.

Given the history of the orchestrated rise of Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale, speculation is rife that a similar drama is being played out today, with the BJP-ruled Centre seeking to destabilise the fledgling Aam Aadmi Party government in Punjab.

There is equally — and equally difficult to prove — speculation that Amritpal Singh, who just a year ago was nothing but an orthodox Sikh in Dubai — a notorious recruitment ground for Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence — is, in fact, acting on instructions from across the border. Allegations that he is funded and controlled by elements in the radical Sikh diaspora abroad are, again, unverifiable, and state agencies are yet to make these claims directly, though several media reports ostensibly quote ‘informed official sources’.

Even if all such speculation is dismissed, if on no other grounds, then because credible evidence is unavailable, it can still strongly be asserted that the Centre has done a great deal over the past years to mainstream the Khalistani discourse. This has been done, first, by attributing any disruption in Punjab as a manifestation of ‘Khalistani terrorism’. The most prominent case in point was the farmers’ agitation against the government’s ordinances on agricultural reforms, which were repeatedly projected as a Khalistani plot, contrary to evidence.

Another stream has been the constant exaggeration of the role and impact of specific incidents or individuals to create a narrative of far greater threat than what actually exists. Here, the most obvious example could be the activities of Gurpatwant Singh Pannun and his Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), at worst an irritant on social media. Streams of planted reports in the media have given Pannun and the SFJ a larger-than-life image, far out of proportion of the actual harm he has engineered, or could inflict.

Significantly, the BJP and Sangh Parivar’s efforts to simultaneously polarise communities in Punjab and co-opt the Sikhs have given further purchase to this narrative. Before the Sudhir Suri killing (November 4, 2022), radical Hindutva groups were engaged in a vicious cycle of exchanges with radical Sikh groups, and prominent individuals involved in this campaign, including Suri, instead of being booked for hate speech, were provided police protection. At the same time, the BJP government at the Centre announced steps to win over the Sikh community, including welfare measures for victims of the 1984 riots, the announcement of Veer Bal Diwas, slashing of the blacklist of Khalistanis abroad and opening of the Kartarpur Corridor.

In effect, identity politics remains the principal framework of political mobilisation. Crucially, the BJP’s broad Hindutva project creates a reflexive justification for Khalistani separatism. If the demand for a ‘Hindu India’ is legitimate, so must be the demand for a Sikh ‘Khalistan’.

Such reflexivity also extends to some of Amritpal Singh’s transgressions. He and his cohorts are by no means the only group in India that flaunts firearms in public places, or that engages in hate speech, and governments elsewhere have failed to act against such offences. Any action targeting one set of offenders, while others receive the indulgence of the state, can only augment the existing pool of grievances.

It is incomprehensible that Central agencies have failed to act against Amritpal Singh. The Centre may, of course, pretend that law and order is a state subject and, consequently, it is the AAP government that needs to act, but this is, at best, a half-truth. Amritpal Singh has threatened both the Prime Minister and Union Home Minister and in an environment where Central agencies have ranged across the country to arrest and incarcerate individuals for far lesser transgressions, the affectation that the Central agencies’ mandate does not extend to action in this case is somewhat unconvincing.

It is not just the state that has mainstreamed the Khalistani narrative. A section of the media — often fed by state agencies — has substantially done the same. Every incident or evidence of Sikh mobilisation for any cause is quickly labelled as a resurgence of the Khalistan movement or, a return to the ‘dark days’ of the 1980s.

There is also the easy acceptance of the extremist narrative, embracing the idea of Amritpal Singh as ‘Bhindranwale 2.0’ — an identity the former fervently aspires to. Some reports uncritically accept the claim that he has been ‘anointed’ the head of ‘Waris Punjab De’, a contention strongly challenged by the family of the organisation’s founder, Deep Sidhu. The family accuses Amritpal Singh of “misusing their name to propagate anti-social activities.” The original ‘Waris Punjab De’, formed by Sidhu, is currently headed by Harnek Singh Uppal and repudiates any linkage with Amritpal Singh and his Khalistani campaign. Earlier, we had the eager acceptance by many media channels of the alleged Khalistani linkages of the farmers’ stir, notwithstanding overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

On the other hand, there are allegations of the AAP’s complicity with or, at least, appeasement of the Khalistanis. Indeed, as far back as 2017, KPS Gill, former DGP of Punjab and architect of the comprehensive victory against Khalistani terrorism in the early 1990s, had declared that the AAP was providing a platform to ‘radical Sikh elements’, though he conceded that this may have been ‘inadvertent’. While this was hotly denied by the AAP, the party’s actions, or lack thereof, periodically refresh such allegations.

The unfortunate reality is that with the influence of the traditional power centres and parties in Punjab dramatically eroded, the model of political consolidation, both for the marginalised groupings — the Akali Dal and Congress — as well as the principal contestants — the AAP and BJP — appears to be controlled chaos. Identity politics and communal polarisation are the main instrumentalities of this model. From time to time, these escalate into significant confrontations — the repeated mobilisation and violence over ‘beadbi’ (sacrilege) since the 2015 Bargari incident, ongoing Sikh Bandi Chhor protests, periodic eruptions of violence, including conflicts in and over gurdwaras, or between Sikh and Hindu extremist formations — and all of these then become grist for the electoral mill.

This model is working across the country and has brought significant benefits to its practitioners. It is, however, fraught with risks. Across the world today, and in many theatres within India in the past, the conjurers of this form of mass manipulation have lost control of the illusions they seek to construct or have been overtaken by others who choose an even more dramatic and potentially destructive deception.

This is a divisive and unpredictable process that has produced a catastrophe in the past, and can do so again.

india has been hoping to use the G20 presidency to find a leadership role in global affairs. It has been carefully feeling its way ahead and has maintained a neutral stance till now. The Chinese insistence on keeping the word ‘war’ out of the joint communiqué of the G20 finance ministers last week suggests that Beijing will work to ensure that India doesn’t cut into the diplomatic space it is possibly seeking to create for itself on Ukraine.

IMPORTANT: The route to dialogue opened by the Europeans may be the most fruitful since they are crucial to Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Reuters
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Manoj Joshi

Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi

THE first anniversary of the Russian war on Ukraine is a good opportunity to do a bit of crystal-gazing. Given the current scenario where both sides seem determined to fight till victory, the future remains clouded.

Victory for the Russians could now well be a consolidation of the areas they have annexed through the September 2022 referendum in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. As for Ukraine, it says that the liberation of all those areas as well as Crimea is the victory they are seeking.

In the meantime, the conflict is increasingly looking like a proxy war between the US and Russia. This has been underscored by US President Joe Biden’s recent visit to Kyiv. And now, amidst US warnings against aiding the Russian war effort, Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to visit Moscow in April.

The fighting grinds on. Neither side appears to have the wherewithal to compel the other side to concede. Despite their vast size and resources, the Russians have made trivial gains in their most recent offensives in the Donbas region. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are absorbing the attacks and waiting to launch their own offensive towards Mariupol.

The huge gap in the goals of the two antagonists makes any kind of a compromise difficult.

One solution is an outright and immediate ceasefire that freezes the conflict where it is. Probably, that is the point that both are aiming for this summer through their fresh offensives.

Each side may have to accept a tattered victory — Ukraine demonstrating its ability to take on the Russians, the latter indicating their determination to hold on to territories seized from Ukraine.

The larger picture also remains fuzzy. If Europe has managed to deal with its energy challenge through the winter of 2022, Russia, too has successfully used its oil and gas profits to ride out the difficulties its economy faced after the invasion and the western sanctions.

But income from energy, which provides 40 per cent of the Russian government’s income, is falling and could drop 25 per cent in the coming year as western sanctions sharpen their bite.

Meanwhile, the global community is at last getting worried that a prolongation of the conflict has dangerous, unpredictable consequences. Already, the world has had to pay an unanticipated price for what was thought to be a purely European affair.

The past year has seen significant geopolitical developments with implications not just for Russia but also its key friend China. The consolidation of the western alliance has derailed Chinese calculations in Europe. For Beijing, as for Moscow, relations with countries like Germany and those in central and eastern Europe are important from the economic and political perspectives.

Now, they support the US hard line on Russia, and China’s ‘no-limits’ partnership is not playing well in Europe. Even Japan has been forced to take major steps to re-arm and alter its pacifist policy and has made it clear that it will not accept the Chinese use of force in Taiwan.

There are three potential peace-making plans in the works:

China’s self-serving 12-point peace plan revealed at the Munich Security Conference was aimed at the European opinion, yet it undermined itself by Chinese diplomats blaming the war on western support to Ukraine. Beijing’s next moves could be revealed when Xi visits Russia later this year. So far, the response to the 12-point plan has been underwhelming.

The second potential peacemaker is India. New Delhi has been hoping to use the G20 presidency to find a leadership role in global affairs. India has been carefully feeling its way ahead and has maintained a neutral stance till now, one that is reluctantly accepted by the US and the EU.

However, India’s most recent vote of abstention at the UN General Assembly meeting on February 24 was a bit of a non sequitur. In its long-winded explanation of vote, it expressed concern over the loss of lives and destruction that the war had brought and spoke of the importance of international law and territorial integrity of states. It also invoked the Prime Minister’s statement that “today’s era is not an era of war.”

Yet, it abstained on a resolution calling for a “comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine” that passed 141 to seven against with 32 abstentions.

The G20 is unlikely to provide a platform for any putative Indian move on Ukraine. The Chinese insistence on keeping the word ‘war’ out of the joint communiqué of the G20 finance ministers last week suggests that Beijing will work to ensure that India does not cut into the diplomatic space it is possibly seeking to create for itself on Ukraine.

A third and potentially important route to dialogue has been opened up by the reported move of France, the UK and Germany to offer Ukraine a pact that would supply advanced weapons and assistance to Ukraine, but not the full benefits of a NATO membership. The idea is to enable a Ukrainian offensive as a prelude to negotiations which may involve a loss of some Ukrainian territory. The European move would also be a guarantee of sorts for the future security of Ukraine.

There is no report of the US signing on to the European plan. In Kyiv, Biden offered unconditional support without any talk of negotiations. But it is unlikely that the Europeans will move without American concurrence.

Of all the moves, this may be the most fruitful since the Europeans are crucial to Ukraine’s fight against Russia and minus their support, the Ukrainians will find the going difficult. As they say, he who pays the piper calls the tune.

PTI

Islamabad, February 28

A Pakistani court on Tuesday issued a non-bailable arrest warrant against former Prime Minister Imran Khan in the Toshakhana case but he was granted bail in two other cases, amid high drama outside the court premises where hundreds of his supporters converged in support of their leader.

Khan, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief, travelled from his Zaman Park residence in Lahore to Islamabad to appear in three cases here in the federal capital.

Additional sessions judge Zafar Iqbal issued a non-bailable arrest warrant against the 70-year-year-old prime minister in the Toshakhana case.

The court issued a non-bailable arrest warrant against Khan and adjourned the hearing till March 7 for his repeated failure to appear before the court.

His indictment, in this case, was earlier postponed twice due to his absence.

Khan has been in the crosshairs for buying gifts, including an expensive Graff wristwatch he had received as the premier at a discounted price from the state depository called Toshakhana and selling them for profit.

The former cricketer-turned-politician was, however, granted bail by the Anti-Terrorism court (ATC) as well as the banking court in the prohibited funding case as he appeared here in the judicial complex as hundreds of his supporters thronged the vicinity.

Meanwhile, ATC judge Raza Jawed granted Khan interim bail till March 9. The Islamabad Police had registered a terrorism case against Khan and senior PTI leaders for allegedly vandalising state property in response to the Toshakhana case.

The Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) in October last year filed a case in an Islamabad-based banking court against Khan and other PTI leaders over allegedly receiving prohibited funding.

The Election Commission of Pakistan last year found the party guilty of concealing that it had received the money and also disqualified Khan.

The prohibited funding case was filed by estranged PTI founding member Akbar S Babar in the ECP in 2014.

Khan has not attended any hearings since November last year when he was injured in an assassination attempt at his rally in the Wazirabad area of Punjab.

Khan was granted interim bail by a special court in Islamabad after being shot during the assassination attempt.

He has since received extensions on his bail due to medical reasons.

Khan was ousted from power in April after losing a no-confidence vote in his leadership, which he alleged was part of a US-led conspiracy targeting him because of his independent foreign policy decisions on Russia, China, and Afghanistan.

The PTI chief, who came to power in 2018, is the only Pakistani Prime Minister to be ousted in a no-confidence vote in Parliament.