Sanjha Morcha

Armed forces working on 100 emergency procurement contracts amid tensions with China

Army is in process of procuring armour-piercing fin-stabilised discarding sabot ammunition fired by T-72, T-90 main battle tanks, additional Heron drones and mines, among other things.

Representational image of military equipment in Ladakh | Photo: ANI

Representational image of military equipment in Ladakh | Photo: ANI
New Delhi: The armed forces are currently working on over 100 emergency procurement contracts — with a ceiling of Rs 500 crore each — in the wake of tensions with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

This procurement could easily eclipse the Rs 11,000 crore worth of contracts inked after the Uri terror attack in 2016, ThePrint has learnt.

Government sources told ThePrint that there will be no shortage of funds for the armed forces, and any additional funds that may be needed will be provided.

The contracts being pursued include those under capital budget. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh had, on 15 July, given the go-ahead with Rs 300 crore worth of capital acquisitions to meet emergent operational requirements.

As reported earlier, the armed forces are on a shopping spree and the Army is in the process of procuring armour-piercing fin-stabilised discarding sabot (APFSDS) ammunition fired by the T-72 and T-90 main battle tanks, additional Heron drones, Man Portable Air Defence System (MANPADS), mines and high altitude clothing, among other things.


Also read: IAF to induct 5 Rafale fighters on 29 July in Ambala, their first mission could be in Ladakh


Not all contracts are worth Rs 500 crore

Sources said the Army alone is pursuing 100 contracts, both under revenue and capital budget heads.

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“These contracts have an upper ceiling of Rs 500 crore. This does not mean that all contracts are for Rs 500 crore. Some could be as less as Rs 25 crore while some would be closer to the ceiling,” a source explained.

Another source said emergency procurement powers extended to the armed forces in June were important, given the tensions with China.

One of the sources cited above said that between January 2014 and October 2016, 17 Army contracts were inked under emergency procurement by the Ministry of Defence, totalling Rs 400 crore.

In October 2016, emergency powers were extended to the services by the Narendra Modi government.

Between October 2016 and December 2016, the Army alone inked contracts worth about Rs 11,000 crore under emergency procurement provisions. These dealt with operational requirements like arms, ammunition, radars and mines, among other things.

Sources said the figures for the Navy and the Air Force were different, but lower than the Army’s.

‘There will be no shortage of funds’

Sources said the forces are currently managing the funds from what was already allocated to them in the Union Budget 2020.

“The funds for the emergency contracts are coming from what has already been given to the defence ministry,” a source said.

But the source added that if the budget is not adequate for making other payments under the normal procurement process, a request for additional funds will be made to the finance ministry around September.

“There will be no shortage of funds for the armed forces,” he asserted.

Laxman Kumar Behera, research fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, said nine times out of 10, the finance ministry turns down the request. “However, this time the defence ministry will most likely get the additional funds that they will seek. The threat from China is real. Last year too, they got an additional Rs 10,000 crore,” he said.

Sunil Kumar Kohli, former Financial Advisor to Defence Services (FADS), who retired in 2018, said the armed forces manage well since the entire payment is not made at once.

“The payments are spread out. Under emergency procurement, the forces do have to make some additional payments up front, and hence, they reprioritise. What also happens is that bottlenecks are removed under emergency procurement,” he said.

Kohli added that the forces have, in the last few years, not surrendered any funds from the capital budget, which shows that a lot of procurement is being done.


Also read: Here’s how Army is getting 30,000 additional troops winter-ready in Ladakh


US hails growing defence ties with India, lashes out at China for ‘systemic rule-breaking’

Mark Esper, US Secretary of Defence | Photographer: Sarah Silbiger | Bloomberg

US Defence Secretary Mark Esper | Photographer: Sarah Silbiger | Bloomberg File Photo
New Delhi: Branding defence cooperation between India and the US as “one of the all-important defence relationships of the 21st century”, US Defence Secretary Mark Esper Tuesday said the Donald Trump administration is closely monitoring the India-China tensions in Ladakh.

Washington, Esper said, is pleased to see New Delhi and Beijing trying to de-escalate tensions in the Himalayas. But at the same time, he slammed China, saying the Chinese Communist Party “continues to engage in systemic rule-breaking” even as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) “continues its aggressive behaviour” in the East and South China Sea.

“We are monitoring it (the LAC situation) very closely and what’s happening along the Line of Actual Control, and we are very pleased to see that both sides are trying to de-escalate the situation,” Esper said, addressing a special presentation of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based research body, on the US vision for security in the Indo-Pacific region.

During his address, which was moderated by IISS Director General and Chief Executive John Chipman, Esper also weighed in on the growing defence relationship between New Delhi and Washington.

The US declared India a ‘Major Defence Partner’ in 2016, which enabled New Delhi to access and procure high-tech and sensitive American defence technologies, something that is granted only to its closest allies

“We also continue to grow our defence sales and look forward to a robust 2+2 ministerial dialogue to build on this progress,” Esper said, referring to the annual summit between the two countries’ foreign and defence ministers that was launched in 2018. The previous edition of the 2+2 dialogue — during which the ministers discuss strategic and security interests of both nations — was held in December last year in Washington DC.

The joint two-day India-US Naval exercise PASSEX that began Monday, he said, is another sign of the strong India-US partnership.

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The exercise, which took place off the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, involved Indian warships and the USS Nimitz.

“We conducted our first-ever joint military exercise last November and, as we speak today, the USS Nimitz is conducting combined exercises with the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean demonstrating our shared committed to a stronger naval cooperation in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific,” he said.

He lashed out at the Chinese Communist Party, which he said “continues to engage in systemic rule-breaking”.

“We are not in search of conflict. We are committed to a constructive and results-oriented relationship with China, and, within our defense relationship, to open lines of communication and risk reduction,” he said.


Also Read: India wants concessions from US on drug exports, offers to cut farm goods prices, report says


‘US transforming the way it fights’

Esper’s address also dwelt on how the US is “transforming the way” it fights by modernising its “force, and strengthening deterrence, prioritising development and deployment of game-changing technologies, such as hypersonic weapons, 5G, and artificial intelligence”.

“We are developing a new Joint Warfighting Concept and … Doctrine for the 21st century, and implementing novel concepts to become more nimble, less predictable, and able to rapidly shift to combat operations if needed,” he said.

Esper He said the US has urged all Indo-Pacific nations to “expand their own intra-regional security relationships and networks of like-minded partners”.


Also Read: The US hasn’t woken up to India’s nightmare of a two-front war with China and Pakistan

 


Indian Navy’s MiG-29K fighter jets to be deployed in Northern Ladakh sector

A MiG 29K fighter aircraft (representational image) | ANI
New Delhi: At a time when Indian Navy’s P-8I surveillance planes are carrying out frequent sweeps over the Eastern Ladakh sector, the Navy’s maritime fighter jets MiG-29K will be deployed in the Northern sector for operations. The deployment of the naval fighter aircraft at the Indian Air Force (IAF) bases is in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s directives for enhancing jointness between the three services and Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat’s call for the possibility of deployment of maritime combat aircraft along the northern or western borders with the Air Force.

“It is being planned to deploy the MiG-29K fighter aircraft at an Indian Air Force base in the northern sector. They might be used for carrying out operational flying in the Eastern Ladakh sector along the Line of Actual Control (LAC),” government sources told ANI.
The Indian Navy has a fleet of over 40 MiG-29K fighter jets that are deployed on the aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya and carry out regular flying from the naval fighter base INS Hansa in Goa.

The Russian-origin fighters were procured by the Indian Navy along with the aircraft carrier over a decade ago.

Amid the ongoing dispute with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the Indian Navy has been playing an important role as its planes are being used for surveillance along the LAC for picking up the Chinese activities and positions there.

The surveillance aircraft were used extensively during the Doklam crisis as well.

The Indian Navy is also carrying out an exercise close to the Malacca Straits from where the Chinese Navy enters into the Indian Ocean Region.

“The warships and submarines of the Western Fleet are carrying out wargames near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands territories as part of their deployment,” government sources said.

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The nuclear submarines including the INS Chakra and INS Arihant are also out of their harbours, they added.

Aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya has also been out in the sea for missions with its carrier battle group. The Indian Navy has been keeping a constant eye on the activities of the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean Region where they come regularly with their warships including Landing Platform Docks and long-range frigates and destroyers.

Indian Navy warships also carried out a passage exercise with the American aircraft carrier USS Nimitz a few days ago amid the tensions with China.-ANI


Also read: Armed forces working on 100 emergency procurement contracts amid tensions with China


Ambala’s strategic location behind using it for induction of Rafale: former Air Vice Chief Barbora

Ambala’s strategic location behind using it for induction of Rafale: former Air Vice Chief Barbora

Bhartesh Singh Thakur
Tribune News Service
Chandigarh, July 21

Former Vice-Chief of Air Staff Air Marshal PK Barbora (retd) said the Ambala air station was chosen for in the induction of Rafale jets because of its strategic location.

Air Marshal PK Barbora (retd), who once served at the airbase and witnessed the induction of first Jaguar aircrafts in 1979, said: “Ambala was the first air force base post-Independence the country had. The location is very strategic. It is equidistant from the east and west”.

“In case of raid at Ambala, it has to go through many layers of air defence before reaching the air base. It will give us adequate warning to be able to take all precautionary measures. We can activate all ground and air based defence systems to take care of any threat.”

“We also got first of Jaguar aircrafts at Ambala which is a Deep Penetration Strike Aircraft (DPSA). It implies we have a long range which we can cover, do the job and come back at our base or land at a secondary base. So, it suited the Jaguar aircrafts and two squadrons were formed at Ambala.”

“Over a period of more than 50 years, the infrastructure at Ambala is developed enough to induct any new aircraft without pumping a lot of money. The air defence systems around Ambala are also developed,” he said.

“Rafale gives us longer range than Jaguars. Ambala gives us adequate depth when the range required is more, both towards the north and west. We have adequate area for air to air refueling which is not possible at forward bases,” he said.

At present, Ambala has two squadrons of Jaguar and one of MIG-21 Bison.

“The second base for Rafale is planned at Hashimara (West Bengal). Pakistan is not the real enemy as far air power is concerned, but our eastern neighbour China is. When we didn’t have Rafale, we had moved three squadrons of Sukhoi in the east. With Rafale, we will have adequate number of airborne fighters and fighter bombers to look after the China threat,” he said.

He added that nearby bases of Hashimara had also been beefed up.

Barbora had also served as Air Officer Commanding-in-Chief of Eastern Air Command and then Western Air Command.

The Indian Air Force is inducting Rafale aircrafts into the ‘Golden Arrows’ squadron on July 29.

 

History of ‘Golden Arrows’

After MIG-21 aircrafts were phased out, Golden Arrows was ‘number plated’ on December 31, 2011. It was resurrected on September 10, 2019, when Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa was Chief of Air Staff.

Dhanoa himself had served in the ‘Golden Arrows’.

It was formed on October 1, 1951, at Ambala under the command of Flight Lieutenant DL Springett. Then it was equipped with Harvard-II B aircraft.  According to information provided by the Indian Air Force, the squadron converted fully to De Havilland Vampire by November, 1955 and by 1957, it was flying Hawker Hunter aircrafts.

The squadron converted to the MIG-21 M in 1975.

As far as operations were concerned, the squadron participated in Goa Liberation Campaign in December, 1961 and in 1965 operations as a reserve force.

Under the command of Wing Commander N Chatrath, it took part in the Indo-Pak war of 1971 and flew close air support, counter air and fighter recce missions, getting numerous gallantry awards.

In November, 1988, the squadron was presented ‘Colours’ by then President of India, R Venkataraman.

Under Dhanoa, when he was Wing Commander, Golden Arrows participated actively in Operation ‘Safed Sagar’ in 1999.


Navy’s P-8Is deployed in Ladakh; MiG-29K jets may be moved to North bases Amid border row with China, all three forces put on high alert

Navy's P-8Is deployed in Ladakh; MiG-29K jets may be moved to North bases

New Delhi, July 21

The Indian Navy’s Poseidon 8I anti-submarine warfare aircraft have been deployed in eastern Ladakh to carry out surveillance along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and some of its MiG-29K jets are likely to be stationed in key IAF bases in the northern sector amid the border row with China, sources said on Tuesday.

The sources said the military brass is considering deploying Indian Navy’s MiG-29K fighter jets in a couple of air bases in the northern sector as part of efforts to bring in tri-services synergy in dealing with national security challenges.

The maritime fighter jets will complement the Indian Air Force’s efforts to significantly boost deep strikes and air dominance capabilities, they said.

At present, the Navy has a fleet of around 40 MiG-29K jets and at least 18 of them are deployed on board the country’s aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya.

The IAF has already positioned almost all its frontline fighter jets like Sukhoi 30 MKI, Jaguar and Mirage 2000 aircraft in the key frontier air bases in eastern Ladakh and elsewhere along the LAC, a move that came against the backdrop of the border row with China. Diplomatic and military talks between China and India are continuing for complete disengagement of troops from a number of friction points in eastern Ladakh.

The IAF has been carrying out night time combat air patrols over the eastern Ladakh region in the last few weeks as part of its preparedness to deal with any eventualities in the mountainous region.

By the second half of August, the IAF is planning to deploy five Rafale fighter jets in the Ladakh sector which are expected to significantly enhance its combat capabilities. India is scheduled to receive the first batch of five Rafale jets on July 27.

As part of its high-level of alertness, the IAF has also deployed Apache attack choppers as well as Chinook heavy-lift helicopters to transport troops to various forward locations in eastern Ladakh.

The sources said Poseidon 8I aircraft of the Navy has been deployed for monitoring the movement of Chinese troops in eastern Ladakh. The long-range anti-submarine and reconnaissance aircraft was deployed in Doklam along the Sikkim border too during the 73-day standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in 2017.

The P-8Is were also deployed to keep an eye on movement of Pakistani troops after the Pulwama terror attack last year.

In the midst of the border row with China, the Indian Navy on Monday and Tuesday carried out a military drill with a US Navy carrier strike group led by nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Nimitz off the coast of Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Four frontline warships of the Indian Navy participated in the “PASSEX” exercise when the US carrier strike group was transiting through the Indian Ocean Region(IOR) on its way from the South China Sea, officials said.

The USS Nimitz is the world’s largest warship and the exercise between the two navies assumed significance as it took place in the midst of China’s renewed military assertiveness in eastern Ladakh as well as in South China Sea.

The US Navy carrier strike Group comprises USS Nimitz, Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Princeton and Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS Sterett and USS Ralph Johnson, the officials said.

India carried out similar exercises with the Japanese navy last month.

The Indian Navy has increased its surveillance missions and beefed up operational deployment in the IOR in the wake of the bitter border standoff with China in eastern Ladakh.

The Indian Navy is also ramping up its operational cooperation with various friendly naval forces like the US Navy and Japan Maritime Self Defense Force in view of the fast evolving regional security landscape, the officials said.

Navies from the US, India, Australia, Japan and France have been deepening their mutual cooperation in the IOR in view of China’s growing attempt to expand military influence in the resource rich region.

Following escalation in tension between India and China in eastern Ladakh, the government put all the three forces on high alert. The Indian Navy was asked to raise its alert-level in the IOR where Chinese Navy has been making regular forays. PTI


DRDO develops drone to monitor border areas Expected to be deployed along LAC in eastern Ladakh

DRDO develops drone to monitor border areas

The drone, christened ‘Bharat’, has been developed by DRDO’s Terminal Ballistics Research Laboratory, Chandigarh to monitor border areas.

Vijay Mohan

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, July 21

The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has developed an unmanned aerial vehicle for real-time surveillance of border areas and monitoring activities in difficult terrain.  It is first expected to be deployed with Army units along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh as the stand-off with China in eastern Ladakh continues and the disengagement of troops is facing hurdles.

The drone, christened ‘Bharat’, has been developed by DRDO’s Terminal Ballistics Research Laboratory (TBRL), and is a further development of the drone that had been developed earlier by TBRL in response to the requirements for technologies to mitigate the COVID-19 threat.

“The drone is capable of providing real-time video feed as well as still images to its operators and its controlling software has built-in artificial intelligence tools for analysis and decision-making,” a senior DRDO scientist said. “Besides the armed forces, It also has the potential for being used by the Central Armed Police Forces and law enforcement agencies,” he added.

The design of the drone is said to incorporate low observable features to make its detection difficult by the adversary. Projected to be among the world’s lightest and most agile and surveillance platforms, it has an operational range of a few kilometres and is meant for tactical intelligence gathering and surveillance in a localised area.

Bharat has been designed entirely by TBRL, which is involved in development, production, processing and characterisation of different high-explosive compositions, fragmentation studies of warheads, captive flight testing of bombs, missiles and airborne systems and ballistics evaluation of protective systems like body armour, vehicle armour and helmets.

It has also developed other products like face shields and examination enclosures for the medical fraternity and contactless sanitizer dispenser for use in the fight against COVID-19.

Bharat has been ruggedised to operate in high altitude areas and in extreme climatic conditions. Its payload includes an array of sensors, including infrared and night vision equipment to operate in varied geographical environments.

Advanced drones for use by local commanders in the field within their own area of responsibility have for long been on the Army’s wish list and some variants with different operational capability are already in service.

The Army is also looking at employment of miniature drones to keep a watch on mountain passes during winters when high snow makes the movement of troops or manning forward outposts difficult.


Army man’s father killed, pregnant wife thrashed over land dispute in UP’s Amethi

The victim’s son Surya Prakash is posted in Jammu and Kashmir

Army man's father killed, pregnant wife thrashed over land dispute in UP's Amethi

Photo for representation only.

Amethi (UP), July 22

An army man’s father was hacked to death and his pregnant wife physically assaulted in Sangrampur area here over a land dispute, police said on Wednesday.

Rajendra Mishra (55) was killed with a sharp edged weapon and his pregnant daughter-in-law beaten by Ashok Shukla and his accomplices on Tuesday evening, they said.

The victim’s son Surya Prakash is in the Army and posted in Jammu and Kashmir.

The incident took place in Thengaha Shukulpur village, police said.

Superintendent of police, Khyati Garg said that the body of the victim has been sent for postmortem and a manhunt has been launched to nab Shukla and others involved in the incident. PTI


China’s LAC stance expansive, goes beyond its1960 claim line

China’s LAC stance expansive, goes beyond its1960 claim line

Ajay Banerjee

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, July 21

China’s actions along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh seek to alter whatever is the approximate alignment at the undemarcated border, aiming to create fresh tussles in addition to the 10 known points of dispute or differing perception.

The four fresh disagreements—Galwan, patrol points (PP) 15 and 17A and Finger-4 at Pangong Tso—have separate implications. While Galwan is a fresh claim, the other three fall in gray areas, implying these are geographically located between the multiple self-claimed boundaries of China and the Indian perception of the LAC. Any construction or holding onto territory in disputed (or gray areas) is barred under agreement between the two countries.

It is clearly an attempt to push India westwards to “fix” a fresh LAC that partly adheres to the 1962 war-time position of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and partly to China’s own claim line of 1960, said a senior functionary. The disengagement process that started some two weeks ago has hit a hurdle as the PLA is yet to fully pull back to points agreed upon by the two sides.

The PP-15, PP-17A and Finger-4 disputes are geographically located between China’s own claim line of 1960 and Indian perception of LAC. Then there is an overlapping claim also, stemming from the conflict of October-November 1962. Post the war, the PLA retreated to its own 1960 claim line in certain pockets and at other places, it remained west (towards India) of the 1960 claim line.

In 1996, a joint working group identified Trig heights in northern Ladakh and Demchok in southern Ladakh as the two points of dispute.

No maps have been exchanged but an Indian assessment, based on activities of the PLA patrol parties, is that there are eight other pockets of differing perceptions of the LAC. Starting from the northern-most point, these are Sumar Lung Pa, Depsang plains, point 6556 (that is height of the peak in metres), Chang Lung Nullah, Kongka La, Spanggur, Mount Sajjam and Domchelle.

A source cited that at Pangong, the 1960 claim of China was at Srijap, post-1962 it advanced to Finger- 8. In 2020, the PLA is at Finger-4. One of the preconditions India wants is that China moves back to Finger-8 before further de-escalation. At PP-17A, the PLA is keen to hold onto a vantage height.

Naval aircraft headed North

The Indian Navy’s Poseidon 8I anti-submarine warfare aircraft have been deployed in eastern Ladakh to carry out surveillance along the LAC and some of its MiG-29K jets are likely to be stationed at key IAF bases in the northern sector amid the border row with China, sources said. The Indian Navy has some 45 MiG 29K jets from Russia. It also has some 60 of the land-based jets called MiG 29.


India’s regional challenge China and nationalism have made it more complex for Delhi

External affairs minister S Jaishankar addresses the media in New Delhi, September 17, 2019

External affairs minister S Jaishankar addresses the media in New Delhi, September 17, 2019(Sanjeev Verma/HT PHOTO)

Last week, former Congress president Rahul Gandhi offered his explanation on why the Chinese decided to be aggressive at the border at this juncture. Among other reasons, he attributed this to the failure of the Narendra Modi government’s foreign policy, in particular, when it comes to the neighbourhood. External affairs minister S Jaishankar countered Mr Gandhi — and on the neighbourhood, listed out India’s engagement with smaller countries, the development assistance being offered, and landmark deals.

Between the political black-and-white worldview — where Mr Gandhi sees a failure in India’s handling of the neighbourhood, and Mr Jaishankar sees success — lies a complex truth. India is more invested in the neighbourhood than it has been, but it has also become more challenging for New Delhi to secure its interests in the region. This is due to two factors. The first reason is the increased presence of China. Beijing has decided to engage with political parties, official institutions, media, businesses, and societies in South Asia — with the objective of increasing its control, and eroding Indian influence. India has historic advantages of connectivity, people-to-people linkages, and cultural convergence. But it lacks the resources, single-minded determination, and is often caught between conflicting objectives and ad-hoc policymaking, which makes meeting the China challenge more difficult. The second reason is the nature of democratic contestation in the neighbourhood. Given India’s size and role in the domestic politics of Nepal, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka, there is a “nationalist” constituency in each of these countries that earns political advantage by being seen as adversarial to India. These domestic constituencies then become a natural, receptive partner for China.

These twin challenges affect the policy matrix in Delhi. The government has sought to break out of this challenge by taking a firm position against hostile governments and encouraging friendly parties which have come to power (Maldives), working with supposedly antagonistic partners to neutralise their hostility (KP Oli in Nepal, the Rajapaksas in Sri Lanka), or backing its allies (the Awami League in Bangladesh). But these methods are not foolproof, and have thrown mixed results, and will be a challenge for New Delhi. As the neighbourhood gets more complex, India’s government and Opposition should develop a bipartisan approach. Mr Gandhi and Mr Jaishankar should go offline, and have a chat about these complexities


China’s belligerence: We are all Hong Kong now | Opinion

Recall, China’s big advantage for the last decades has been its incrementalism

Recall, China’s big advantage for the last decades has been its incrementalism(AP)

In recent decades, the combination of a slow-but-certain incrementalism — couched in parables attributed to Confucius and other Chinese notables — had made Beijing’s diplomatic behaviour inscrutable, and yet, viewed as benign. It gave the country an advantage in being able to change facts on the ground, and attract zero retaliation and minimal critique. It was the perfect excuse for western and Indian companies and governments to look the other way, and continue with the high profits that this authoritarian regime brought.

This has now dramatically changed. The rest of the world has a red hot smoking gun of Beijing’s new diplomacy. As two astute American analysts, Kurt Campbell and Mira Rapp-Hooper put it, “Beijing appears less image-conscious now than in the past.” And they argue, “Xi (Jinping) has endured the reputational damage of his government’s ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy (named after a series of nationalistic action films), likely calculating that China ‘will gain more by flexing its military and economic muscles even if it loses some of its soft power along the way’.”

Recall, China’s big advantage for the last decades has been its incrementalism. Especially in its foreign policy, its method was to move little-by-little, step-by-step, under-the-radar. This was a strategy of managing to stay just below the level of a full-blown provocation, such that any concrete retaliation by injured parties would look like a hysterical overreaction.

In fact, one can apply this insight to other aspects of China’s behaviour too. The World Trade Organization (WTO) is a case in point. China has slowly, deliberately, and quietly chipped away at the rules that underpin the multilateral trading system, but attracted scarce attention. In contrast, President Donald Trump’s diatribes against the WTO, and in-your-face decision to paralyse the Appellate Body of the Dispute Settlement Mechanism, has led even allies to view the United States (US) with disappointment and anger. There is considerable irony in the fact that a sulky US — the guarantor of trade multilateralism for decades — has chosen not to join the parallel interim dispute settlement mechanism (created by the European Union (EU), Norway, Canada and others), but China has. Similarly, deeply frustrated with the World Health Organization (WHO)’s apparent complicity with China, the US announced on May 29 that it would withdraw from the organisation. In doing so, the US has attracted the ire of the great and the good of the world. China, in contrast, for all its mishandling of the pandemic, and in spite of the threats that it issued to countries that demanded an enquiry (such as Australia), still manages to present itself as being on the side of the angels by reiterating its commitment to WHO.

The international community cannot dismiss Hong Kong as it has done Chinese excesses in Xinjiang. The issue goes to the heart of international jurisprudence and China’s new aggressive interpretation of its sovereignty. Hong Kong is not “just” another unit in China’s domestic jurisdiction; underpinning the handover of Hong Kong to China was the guarantee of “one country, two systems”. Hong Kong is not “just” another artificial island, being quietly militarised, somewhere in a faraway sea that the West does not need to bother about — in many ways, it is a cornerstone of a liberal, English-speaking, democratic West. Hong Kong is not even “just” another fatal border conflict with India, which the West can dismiss as a product of misperceptions over unclear boundaries drawn by careless colonial masters.

What has happened in Hong Kong should matter to all of us because of the deeply worrying repercussions it carries for its citizens. But as foreign policy is too seldom about values, here’s a straightforward reason why all realists should also be concerned about Hong Kong. China’s actions in Hong Kong are a clear signal of the heavy costs that its government is willing to bear to openly assert, consolidate, and further expand its power.

The costs for China are huge, both reputational and financial. Hong Kong — along with Taiwan — was a symbol of reassurance that China, despite its different model of governance and development, could co-exist peacefully with other models based on freedom, democracy, and free markets. Besides, the financial attractiveness of Hong Kong stemmed from the fact that there was rule of law, transparency, independent judiciary, checks and balances. Companies knew that they would be given a fair deal, if they entered into conflict with a state-owned enterprise. With these advantages gone, financial costs will be inevitable — and China has shown that it is ready to incur them. This does not augur well for Taiwan, for the region at large, or for global order.

And this is why banal statements from all defenders of the liberal multilateral order need to stop. German chancellor Angela Merkel, for instance, still talks remarkably of the need to “seek dialogue” with the Chinese government on the basis of a “relationship of trust”. EU high representative, Josep Borrell, also stated “It is clear that China has a global ambition. But, at the same time, I do not think that China is playing a role that can threaten world peace”. No, Mr Borrell, think what you may, there’s no way you can really know that. None of us can. Because ultimately, we can never know the intentions behind the actions of states. But when states take actions entailing high costs — especially to themselves — these are signals that must not be ignored.

We could all be Hong Kong tomorrow. And this is why — and not only for altruism — we should all be acting with one voice, with the people of Hong Kong now.