Monthly Archives: August 2018

For over two decades, ever since the process of rapprochement began between India and the United States (US) after the 1998 nuclear tests, there have been two clear views within the Indian polity and strategic community. One suggested closer ties between India and the US. Advocates of this view pointed to US power; the advantages that India could extract for its economic development; the convergence in democratic values; and the fact that the US can act as an insurance policy in the face of a rising China. The other school of thought pointed to the US track record of undermining Indian interests and its close ties with the Pakistan military; and argued that proximity will undermine India’s “strategic autonomy”, and deepen New Delhi’s disputes with Beijing.

All governments have chosen a middle way till now, even as they have tilted towards the first view. Recognising the benefits of closer ties with the US, New Delhi has deepened economic and military links with Washington. But it has been careful not to enter any formal alliance; been hesitant to institutionalise structures such as Quad; retained its independent positions on issues such as trade; and deepened its economic ties with China. Each time tensions with China erupted, a familiar question was asked. Is China’s behaviour a result of India-US proximity, or is India-US proximity a result of Chinese behaviour?

Chinese aggression at the Line of Actual Control in the last two months, and the brutal clash on June 15 which left 20 Indian soldiers dead, have now answered the question. China will be India’s greatest strategic threat in the coming decades. Whether India desires it or not, it will end up as one of the frontline states which will have to step up to contain Chinese power, not because of a third power, but because its own interests are at stake. This will mean India has no choice but to deepen its partnerships with other countries, particularly the US. And it will reduce links with China. But even as there is greater strategic clarity, walking down this path comes with responsibility and costs. It may lead to even greater Chinese aggression, and open up the prospect of an adverse two-front situation. It will mean making difficult trade-offs, since US interests do not always converge with Indian interests. It will also mean building internal economic capabilities, ensuring social peace, and evolving a cross-party consensual position. India’s choice has been made; it now has to stay the distance.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the soldiers of the Indian Army deployed in the eastern Ladakh sector along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China on Friday and paid glowing tribute to their valour while delivering a strong message to China by recounting India’s history of repulsing attacks by ‘invaders’. Here are the top 10 quotes by PM Modi

1. “Your bravery and your dedication to safeguard mother India’s honour is not comparable. Your endurance is not inferior to anyone in the world. No one in the world can compete with the tough situations and the heights you embrace while serving mother India. Your courage is taller than the heights you are deployed in. Your resolve is stronger than the valleys you walk every day and your arms are as strong as the rocks that surround you. The strength of your will is indomitable like the mountains around you. I can feel it and see it today, as I am amongst you.”

2. “The knowledge that the country’s security is in your hands and is protected by your strong resolve offers reassurance not just to me but to the entire country, which has unflinching faith in you. The fact that you are guarding the borders, serves as an inspiration for the fellow countrymen to work day and night for the motherland. The resolve of ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ becomes stronger because of you, your sacrifices and bravery.”

3. “The bravery that you and your compatriots have shown recently, has sent a message to the world about India’s strength. I am looking at women soldiers in front of me. In the battlefield, at the border, this view is inspiring.”

4. “I use my voice today, as was once said by national poet Ramdhari Singh Dinkar, to speak of your bravery and to salute you. I again offer my tribute to soldiers who were martyred in the Galwan Valley. The bravado and the lion-like roar of these braves has made even the earth speak of their valour. Every countrymen’s head bows with respect before your bravery. Every Indian citizen’s chest swells with pride because of your bravery. This earth is full of tales of your gallantry. The bravery of 14 Corps is being talked about everywhere. The world has seen your courage and the tales of your bravery and fortitude are echoing in every house in the country.”

5. “Bharat Mata’s enemies have seen your fire and fury. Friends, this part of Ladakh is India’s symbolic head and it represents the prestige and pride of 130 crore Indians. This land belongs to the braves that worship mother India and are ever ready to sacrifice their all for her. “

‘The enemy has seen your fire and fury as well’: PM Modi in address to soldiers in Ladakh

6. “This earth belongs to the brave. I can see your ability and your resolve in your eyes and on your face. You are the brave soldiers of the same land that has repulsed attacks by several invaders and tyrants for thousands of years. We are the same people who pray to the flute playing Lord Krishna but we are also the same people who idolise and follow the ‘Sudarshana Chakra’ carrying lord Krishna.”

7. “India has emerged stronger after every such attack. The world recognises that peace and friendship are very important for the growth of any country or of humanity, but we also know that those who are weak can never initiate peace. Bravery is a prerequisite for peace.”

8. “India is increasing its strength in all three realms of water, air and land guided by the principle of the wellbeing of the entire mankind. When India is developing modern weaponry and bringing the latest technology for its armed forces, then the message behind is driven by the well being of humanity.”

‘Leading from the front’: Top ministers hail PM Modi’s surprise Ladakh visit

9. “Whether World Wars or peace, whenever the need arises, the world has seen the victory of our braves and their efforts towards peace. We have worked for the betterment of humanity. All of you are leaders establishing this tradition of the country.”

10. Age of expansionism is over, now, is the age of development. The policy of development is the foundation of mankind and is the only policy relevant today. History has witnessed that the expansionist policy has hurt humanity the most. Expansionist policy has always threatened world peace. History has witnessed that such forces have either lost or were forced to turn back. This is what the world has experienced so far and it has once again made up its mind against the policy of expansion.

Complication of tension at the Sino-Indian border should be avoided, China said on Friday, within hours of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise visit to Ladakh in the backdrop of the ongoing hostile situation between the two Himalayan neighbours.

The Chinese foreign ministry also said New Delhi should avoid “strategic miscalculation on China.”

“India and China are in communication and negotiations on lowering the temperatures through military and diplomatic channels. No party should engage in any action that may complicate the situation at this point,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, said at the regular ministry briefing on Friday.

Modi, during his Ladakh visit, was accompanied by chief of defence staff (CDS) General Bipin Rawat and Army chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane.

Watch: China responds to PM Narendra Modi’s Ladakh visit

The PM toured one of the forward locations in Nimu where he interacted with personnel of the Army, Air Force and Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP).

Modi’s visit to the border is being closely monitored in China as New Delhi begins a calibrated response – including economic steps – after 20 Indian army soldiers were killed in eastern Ladakh in a violent clash with People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops on June 15. An unspecified number of Chinese soldiers also died in the clash.

Asked about India planning to ban Chinese companies from building roads in the country, Zhao said New Delhi should focus on “common interests in bilateral relations”.

“Certain politicians in India have been issuing remarks that are detrimental to our bilateral relations. Our bilateral relations need to be held with the concerted efforts, Indian side should work with us towards the same goal, to uphold the general picture of our common interests in bilateral relations,” Zhao added.

“Setting artificial blocks to our concrete and practical cooperation will also harm India’s interest. We will take necessary measures to uphold legitimate rights of Chinese businesses in India,” Zhao sai

Zhao sidestepped a question about New Delhi’s security-related concerns that prompted it to ban 59 Chinese mobile apps on Monday.

“…we should also be aware that India and China are major developing countries, accelerating the renewal and development are historical missions for both of us. To this end we have to respect and support each other. This is also in the long-term interest of both sides,” he said.

“If we show misgiving and engage in conflicts, this is not the right way and also go against the shared aspiration of our people. So, we have to follow the consensus reached between the leaders of our two countries, and proceed from the overall picture of our bilateral relations.”

“The Indian side should not have strategic miscalculation on China. We hope it will work with China to uphold the overall picture of our bilateral relations,” Zhao added.

On Friday morning, Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi shaped India’s future foreign policy and security doctrine for years to come. First, by making an unscheduled, surprise visit to Ladakh at a time when the border stand-off with China, because of Chinese aggression, continues, he sent out a symbolic and political message, both within and outside the country, that India will stand up to defend its territorial integrity, in all circumstances.

But, more importantly, while speaking to soldiers in the frontlines, PM Modi sent out a clear and unambiguous substantive message to China that India, and the rest of the world, will challenge its “expansionism”. By suggesting that either expansionists lose or are forced to mend their ways, the PM was telling China that the era of patience with its predatory tactics is over. By mentioning that India seeks peace — but peace comes from strength and India has done and will do what it takes to build its strength — the PM was telling China not to think that its assessment of the asymmetry of power between the two countries will make India retreat in the face of aggression. By repeatedly highlighting the bravery of soldiers and honouring them, the PM was preparing the Indian armed forces, as well as the rest of the country, for the challenges that may lie ahead. And by acknowledging Ladakh as India’s pride, the people of Ladakh as patriots, and the sites of Ladakh as having witnessed Indian bravery, he was laying an unequivocal claim to the region — all of it — as Indian territory, which is not up for negotiation.

In the face of Chinese attempts to change the status quo at the Line of Actual Control, and the lack of substantive movement through negotiations at the military and diplomatic level, India had a choice. One option was to underplay the incursions, keep the issue in cold freeze, and slowly normalise the India-China relationship. The other option was to recognise the threat, decide to take on the adversary irrespective of potential costs, and reframe the entire framework of the relationship to impose costs on China. PM Modi has made his choice by picking the second option. It is now up to China to decide whether it wants to risk an escalatory spiral at the border and beyond at this juncture, or whether it is willing to restore the status quo and make peace. PM Modi has made it clear that while India hopes for the latter, it is prepared for the former.

On June 29, the minister for electronics and information technology and law and justice, Ravi Shankar Prasad, tweeted that “For safety, security, defence, sovereignty & integrity of India and to protect data & privacy of people of India the government has banned 59 mobile apps.” After the usual partisan bluster surrounding this move subsides, India must operationalise and strengthen this momentous decision. India, its people, and its territory that are now increasingly digital, must be protected from China’s encroachment and influence.

This long-term response has to be shaped by three ideas. First, India must not contribute to the success, proliferation and performance of digital weapons that will be ranged against it. China’s tech must be recognised as one. Second, it must wean itself away from an iniquitous trade relationship that makes it dependent on a country that seeks to harm it. And, third, India needs to step out of the shadow that stunts its own economic growth, diminishes its political clout and limits its digital ambitions.

The presence of China’s hardware and platforms in India’s digital ecosystem constitutes a long-term security threat. Arriving at this conclusion requires no strenuous leap of logic. A level-headed assessment of China’s stated intentions and observable actions is enough. China has manipulated democratic means to transmit its propaganda and advertised its way to ensure suitable reportage and headlines. It has leveraged WeChat to interfere in Canadian politics, and to intercept content beyond its jurisdiction, and adopted western social media platforms to target dissidents abroad, exacerbate racial tensions in the United States (US), interfere in Taiwan’s political processes and spread disinformation about the coronavirus. China has entrenched the influence of its tech platforms in key global institutions such as the United Nations in an attempt to redraw the rules of information flows and the ethical applications of emerging technologies like facial recognition systems.

These are fundamental to China’s great power ambitions — they assist Beijing to expand its “discourse power”, develop indigenous technologies, create lock-ins through standards and infrastructure, weaponise its economic and technological interdependence, and emerge as a technology superpower. Relations with India are inconsequential to Beijing’s imagination of the world. India has to look out for itself. This new mindset to review engagement with China tech is a vital first step to protect itself.

China will continue to gather information on Indians. More worrisome is the insidious ability of the Communist Party of China (CPC) to interfere in or influence India’s political and social spheres. During the Doklam stand-off, the security establishment discovered that the Chinese-owned UC Browser was filtering certain news on Android handsets in India to shape perceptions and outcomes — classic information warfare in the digital age. Recently, we have seen content critical of China being taken down on one of the banned apps and moderation of other incidents and images as well.

This is not unique to Chinese platforms. But far-reaching national security legislations, and subservience to a one man-led party that is inimical to India, make their continuance untenable. Indian democracy, howsoever flawed, must steer clear of the digital “tea rooms” owned by the CPC.

Will this Indian decision cause economic harm to Chinese platforms? In terms of revenues, clearly it will not. In terms of value, tremendously so. Platforms rely on network effects to scale — every additional user drives up valuations and the aggregate data that they produce feeds into other commercial and research and development activities and product development. Indian eyeballs and data should not fuel Chinese malfeasance directed against them.

Similarly, India must bar China’s telecommunications infrastructure from its 5G networks. It is time to say “No way Huawei”. Countries such as Singapore, the US, Australia and others have already signalled different degrees of intent to manage the Dragon. New Delhi’s decision should strengthen this trend and encourage others. Political trust is increasingly going to shape the direction of technology flows. India must work with its allies and partners through new initiatives such as the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence to compete with and contain China.

India’s actions will invite consequences. China will respond using other aspects of the economic relationship. India’s dependence on electronics, pharmaceuticals and other industrial inputs are well-documented and easy pickings. China’s response could manifest itself along the Line of Actual Control or through cyber intrusions. China’s ability to impose costs must serve to motivate India.

Bilateral trade is healthy when there is a balance. With China, it is a doubled-barrelled shotgun trained between India’s eyes. It is important that we fix this now as a three trillion dollar economy. Otherwise, all our future growth will only serve to strengthen the entity which seeks to weaken us.

India’s decision has come at a time when economic activity is already under siege from the Wuhan virus and when major economies are also questioning their dependence on China. A reconfiguration of value chains is inevitable. Public opinion favours this and the short-term pain will be acceptable to many. As India restarts its pandemic-stalled economy, let us create value chains that are not of dubious origin.

Gurinderpal Singh, Kulgam’s superintendent of police, said a search and cordon operation was launched in Arreh village in Kulgam under the Kulgam police station’s jurisdiction.

Singh said the terrorists fired upon the joint forces triggering an encounter.

Personnel of the Indian Army’s Rashtriya Rifles, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Jammu and Kashmir police are involved in the operation.

According to sources, two to three terrorists are present in the village.

Chinese president Xi Jinping’s state visit to Japan, initially scheduled for April but put off due to the coronavirus pandemic, is set to be scuttled by Tokyo after loud protests within Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Xi’s state visit would have been the first by a Chinese President since 2008.

Tensions have been simmering between China and Japan for some time but the latest provocation for LDP lawmakers to formally ask the government to reconsider Xi’s visit is China’s imposition of the national security law over Hong Kong. Japanese lawmakers are deeply concerned about China’s clampdown in Hong Kong. Japan fears the sweeping Chinese security law that came into effect this week would undermine the rights of Japanese people and companies in Hong Kong.

Also Read: Indo-China stand-off: Global support for India grows

Japan has accused China of exploiting the coronavirus pandemic to push its aggressive diplomacy and tighten its grip over Hong Kong, a global financial hub where Japan has significant interests. About 1,400 Japanese companies have a presence in Hong Kong, which is the world’s largest importer of Japanese agricultural goods. The Japanese business community is concerned that the Chinese national security legislation would shake the foundations of Hong Kong.

Also Read: PM Modi’s surprise visit to Ladakh is a game-changer: Experts

Japan has strongly criticised the move, saying it erodes Hong Kong’s freedom and goes against the promise of allowing a high degree of autonomy in the former British colony for 50 years after its return to China in 1997. Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi issued a statement of regret over the legislation in which he urged China to respect the rights of Japanese people and companies operating in Hong Kong.

China’s Territorial Hunger

The visit by Chinese leader could have helped to smoothen bilateral ties long frayed over wartime history and territorial issues. In recent weeks, however, China has continued to send ships to waters near the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Since April this year, Japan has spotted 67 Chinese Coast Guard ships near these waters, heightening the already tense situation brewing over the mishandling of coronavirus pandemic by China. Japan’s Defence Minister Taro Kono said China’s behaviour over the East China Sea Islands was jeopardising peace in the region. The statement came amid long-simmering tensions between the two countries over the Senkaku Islands in Japan and Diaoyu in China which falls in the East China Sea.

Also Read: Japan opposes any ‘unilateral attempt to change status quo’ on LAC

Rhetoric has risen in recent days, with Japan reporting increased activity from China in the area. Japan had scrambled fighter jets after the Chinese military flew near Japanese airspace. If Japan retaliates, the move could trigger a massive military conflict in the region which can involve the United States in the matter as Washington is bound to defend Tokyo in pursuant of the defence treaty between the two countries.

At a recent news conference, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga stressed that the Senkaku Islands “are under our control and are unquestionably our territory, historically and under international law. We think it is an extremely serious matter that these activities continue”.

“We will respond firmly and calmly to the Chinese side,” the top Japanese official said. China’s claims that the Diaoyu Islands and its affiliated islands are an inherent part of China’s territory and it is Beijing’s “inherent right” to carry out patrols and law enforcement activities in these waters. Communist Party of China’s mouth-piece, The Global Times wrote that the “Japanese conservatives disrupt recovering China-Japan ties by hyping the Diaoyu Islands dispute”.

The chain of uninhabited disputed islands lie east of the Chinese mainland and south-west of Japan’s Okinawa Island. They are close to strategically important shipping lanes and offer rich fishing grounds with vast reserves of oil and natural gas in this swathe of the sea has made these islands that barely covers an area of 7 square kilometre coveted by both Japan and China. In 2012, the Japanese government bought three of the islands from their private Japanese owner who have held them since the 1930s, a move which sparked a new row and protests in Chinese cities.

Since then, Chinese ships have been sailing in and out of what Japan says are its territorial waters, prompting fears of a clash.

Amid the growing domestic disquiet over China’s behaviour and heightened security concerns, Japanese Defence Minister Taro Kono also sounded a cautious note about welcoming Xi, saying that the security situation facing Japan should be taken into consideration. “As Defence Minister responsible for security, I will make my voice heard within the government,” he said in a press conference held last week.

The US Navy is deploying its two nuclear-powered aircraft carriers – USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan – to conduct exercises in the South China Sea, piling pressure on an ambitious Beijing that has opened multiple fronts including one with India along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh. The US supercarriers are reported to be crossing Luzon Strait, the strait between Taiwan and Luzon island of the Philippines that connects Philippine Sea to the South China Sea.

The US deployment comes after Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army Navy conducted military drills in the contested waters, provoking a sharp reaction from neighbouring states and Washington. The US navy has said its operations in the South China Sea were designed to “support free and open Indo-Pacific”.

“The purpose is to show an unambiguous signal to our partners and allies that we are committed to regional security and stability,” Rear Admiral George M Wikoff commander of the strike group led by USS Ronald Reagan told Wall Street Journal, which first reported the exercises.

China claims 90% of the South China Sea through which about $3 trillion of trade passes each year. Over the last decade, Beijing has gone ahead to build man-made islands and set up military installations including military-grade airfields in several areas.

Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also lay claim to parts of the South China Sea, setting up many of the 21 disputes that an aggressive Beijing is embroiled in.

For now, the most serious crisis is on the India-China border where armies of the two countries are locked in standoffs at multiple points in Ladakh. India has deployed its soldiers along with 1,597 km-long LAC along the entire stretch of the border in East Ladakh, prepared for any eventuality.

But the LAC isn’t the only part of China’s border where it has been attempting to bulldoze its way through to expand its territory.

China’s military drills in the disputed waters have been sharply criticised by its neighbours. Philippines and Vietnam had last week spoken of growing insecurity in southeast Asia at an ASEAN event last Friday amid concerns that China is using the cover of the coronavirus pandemic to step up its presence in the disputed waters.

China’s PLA Navy had started the five-day military drills on July 1, prompting Vietnam to file its formal protest to the Chinese foreign ministry. China’s drills are being held near the Paracel Islands claimed by Vietnam and Philippines.

In its strongest statement yet, the Philippines has said the exercises are being held in waters claimed by Vietnam.

“Should the exercises spill over to Philippine territory, then China is forewarned that it will be met with the severest response, diplomatic and whatever else is appropriate,” Philippines foregn ministry said in a statement, according to news agency AP. The Philippines has a defence cooperation pact with the US.

The US naval exercises come a day after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed solidarity with China’s neighbours. “The PRC’s (People’s Republic of China) military exercise in disputed waters of the South China Sea is highly provocative. We oppose Beijing’s unlawful claims. Period,” Pompeo tweeted on Friday.

Pompeo has been outspoken in his criticism of China’s expansionist approach, describing Beijing as a “rogue actor” for escalating tensions with India and other countries. Last month, he had underlined the degree to which the US is deploying its considerable military might with an almost single-minded determination to contain China.

Shinzo Abe’s Japan, which had been looking at improving ties with China till some months back, is set to cancel a state visit by Xi Jinping that had been deferred from April this year due to the coronavirus pandemic. Japan, which has raised its deployment around its Senkaku Islands that China eyes, has been upset with Beijing over its practice of sending its ships to the Senkaku Islands. Since April this year, Japan has spotted 67 Chinese Coast Guard ships near the islands in the East China Sea.

The 8 uninhabited islands and rocks in the East China Sea controlled by Japan have a total area of about 7 sq km and lie north-east of Taiwan and east of the Chinese mainland but are important because they are close to important shipping lanes and lie near potential oil and gas reserves.