Monthly Archives: August 2018

MK Bhadrakumar

Former Ambassador

A report of the UN’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team concerning the Taliban was released in New York on June 1. Based on highly sensitive intelligence inputs from several countries, it holds a penetrating searchlight on the core issue of Taliban’s nexus with the al-Qaeda. Its conclusion: the Taliban al-Qaeda symbiosis is an enduring reality.

One would have thought that the UN report opens a Pandora’s box. But on the contrary, aside the dust it raised in Delhi momentarily, life moves on. No other world capital seems unduly perturbed. President Trump tweeted , ‘We are acting as a police force, not the fighting force that we are, in Afghanistan. After 19 years, it is time for them to police their own country. Bring our soldiers back home, but closely watch what is going on and strike with a thunder like never before, if necessary!’ Russia insists the Taliban have ‘changed’ and have a ‘strategic vision’.

The world chancelleries are accustomed to regarding the al-Qaeda as a geopolitical tool in regional conflicts. Therefore, the MEA spokesman wisely focused on the ‘operative part’ of the report concerning the presence of nearly 6,500 Pakistani terrorist fighters in Afghanistan, comprising largely of LeT and JeM cadres. The MEA said, ‘This vindicates India’s long-standing position that Pakistan remains the epicentre of international terrorism… The international community should hold Pakistan accountable.’

The salience of the UN report lies on the following templates. One, nothing will deter Washington from heading for the exit door in Afghanistan. Two, Pakistan has manoeuvred itself into a strong position from where it cannot be dislodged. Three, Pakistan’s control of the Taliban is not in doubt, but in the game of smoke and mirrors, the international community has acquiesced. Four, the Taliban are determined to regain power in Kabul, and, with Pakistani support, this goal is achievable. Five, when the crunch time comes, the Haqqanis will do what is necessary for the ISI. Six, foreign powers — with the exception of India, perhaps — are resigned to the Taliban’s return to power.

The virulently anti-India Haqqani group is in a commanding position within the Taliban. Pakistan has a game plan, having drawn lessons from the Mujahideen era — no meaningful rapprochement between the Taliban and Indians should be allowed in a near term. The Haqqanis will ensure it. Put differently, Pakistan couldn’t care less if the Indians open lines to some inconsequential Taliban elements, as it is the Haqqanis who call the shots. All this, plus the large concentration of battle-hardened JeM and LeT fighters in the eastern provinces of Kunar, Nangarhar and Nuristan, carries dark forebodings for India’s security.

To aspire to influence the Afghan peace process is beyond India’s capability now. Pakistan regards India as a ‘spoiler’, and stakeholders will be loathe to risk annoying Pakistan by advocating India’s case. Even ‘time-tested friends’ will fight shy of holding India’s hand. Our options have shrunk.

While political and diplomatic work should continue to endeavour to sustain government-to-government interaction and people-to-people goodwill, India cannot afford to be a provider of security or excessively identify with any single Afghan faction. Geography and resource constraints dictate that until the present churning assumes some clarity, a low-key approach and strategic restraint is advisable.

Meanwhile, the strengthening of the permanent mission in New York with the appointment of an experienced senior diplomat as the new PR, coinciding with India’s membership of the UNSC for the next two-year period, could provide Delhi with some degree of diplomatic leverage in the Afghan peace process leading to any settlement.

The present situation brings to mind an exemplar from the annals of history 40 years ago when the Soviet forces withdrew from Afghanistan, leaving Najibullah to grapple with multiple challenges — pushing back the Mujahideen from approaching the gates of Kabul while coping with internal dissensions in own camp and also making overtures for national reconciliation. Of course, the roof eventually came down under the sheer weight of contradictions.

Going by the experience of that tumultuous period leading to the Mujahideen takeover in 1992, arguably, a calibrated retrenchment on our part at this juncture may once again serve a key purpose. A drawdown can only enhance the prospects of a constructive engagement when the new dawn breaks.

The point is, in this gloomy scenario, India is only as nebulously placed as any other stakeholder today, since imponderables and variables are galore in the Afghan situation. If the matrix today is particularly unfavourable in comparison with the early nineties, it is largely due to our tense relations with both Pakistan and China. A significant improvement on this template can dramatically change the calculus.

The bottom line is that the Kashmir issue and the animated suspension in J&K coalesce and amplify the complexity of the regional security climate. The gloomy Afghan prognosis lends urgency to adopt new thinking. The time has come for the Indian leadership to make a determined effort to cut the Gordian knot of tense relations with China and Pakistan.

This roller-coaster ride in the Himalayas, Kashmir valley and the Hindu Kush concurrently will sap our energies and turn into a quagmire. Nothing serves our ill-wishers better.

Rhetoric should not be the stuff of policy; nor is crisis management the acme of diplomacy. For a start, we can do far better simply by reining in our ‘hawks’. We shouldn’t lose our innate sense of realism and pragmatism. For India to realise its potentials of growth and development, a peaceful external environment is vital. A fresh start becomes imperative.

Arun Joshi

Tribune News Service

Jammu, June 8

China has responded with a positive spirit to end the stand-off in Ladakh in the spirit of bilateralism insisting on the stability of the situation and its resolution through consensus as it announced that the “two sides are ready to engage in consultations to properly solve the relevant issues”.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying, while referring to the Saturday talks in Chusul Moldo between the Indian and Chinese commanders, on Monday, said: “One consensus (of the talks) is that the two sides need to implement the two leaders’ (Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinxing) consensus and make sure that the differences do not escalate into disputes.”

Modi and Jinping during their meetings had reached a consensus that the issues between the two countries should resolve the issue through consensus and dialogue.

The Foreign Ministry had spelt out a template of mutual cooperation after the Wuhan talks between two leaders in 2019, that said the two leaders had “forged a common understanding of the future direction of India-China relations built upon mutual respect for each other’s developmental aspirations and prudent management of differences with mutual sensitivity”.

This statement that came a day after the Indian Foreign Ministry’s statement focusing on the cordial atmosphere, in which the military commanders of the two countries had met to resolve more than a month-long stand-off in Ladakh, appeared to be coming from the same echo chamber, and the one which should soar the spirits of the Ladakhis.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson continued in the spirit of the mutual understanding and that the two sides will work to maintain peace and tranquillity along the border and create a good atmosphere.

She also referred to the recent communications “through diplomatic and military channels, the two sides have maintained close communication on the situation along the border”.

This is considered a good sign and good news for the talks to bring curtains down on the stand-off in Ladakh, in which strategically important areas of the Galwan Valley, the Pangong Tso (lake) and Demchok at the Line of Actual Control ( LAC) are involved with the Chinese troops having taken their position in the areas and so have the Indian troops since the beginning of May.

Bhartesh Singh Thakur

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, June 7

PK Barbora, former Vice Chief of Air Staff, who supervised the reactivation of the highest (16,000 ft) airstrip Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in 2008 after 43 years, has revealed that then Defence Minister AK Antony was kept in the dark about the operation. In fact, there was only verbal permission from then Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major.

 

AK Antony, Former Defence Minister

I am a former Defence Minister. I have some responsibility. I will not comment.

“The government reacted by asking why did you do it? I answered it was my responsibility as Air Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Western Air Command, to ensure logistics to the Army and paramilitary in all areas of north, including Ladakh, as there were no roads and only air route was viable for supplies,” said Air Marshal Barbora (retd), who is based in Gurugram now. Currently, Indian and Chinese forces are in a standoff in Ladakh, including area closer to the DBO.

“Antony was to go to China with earthquake relief material a few days after the landing at the DBO. The Chinese didn’t question him about it. You have got to be right firstly and if you are right, no one says you are wrong. It was within our country. Why should Chinese question it?” he asked.

When contacted, Antony said, “I am a former Defence Minister. I have some responsibility. I will not comment.”

Before conceiving the project, Barbora went through five files regarding earlier attempts to operationalise the DBO, which all said no.

Vijay Mohan

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, June 8

One of the most cherished moments in a military officer’s life is the passing out parade (POP) from their training academy when they take the ‘antim pag’ or the final step from being cadets to becoming combat leaders. This summer, however, the POP at the Indian Military Academy (IMA), traditionally a grand and elaborate affair, would be a watered down event due to restrictions imposed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Parents, siblings and friends of the cadets passing out would not be present. The event has as much significance and pride for parents and siblings as for the cadets themselves. Traditionally, it is the parents, brothers or sisters who ‘pip’ the cadets — which is the pinning of the two stars of a Lieutenant on each shoulder — to formally make them commissioned officers.

To compensate, the Army has made elaborate arrangements for a live telecast of the event on some TV channels and also on social media in the same manner as is being done for the Republic Day Parade and the Army Day Parade. Special accounts have been opened on popular social media platforms and these are being widely circulated.

The POP for the spring term is scheduled to be held at Dehradun on June 13 and the Chief of the Army Staff, General Manoj Mukund Naravane, is expected to be the reviewing officer. Special precautionary measures are being undertaken in view of the prevailing coronavirus situation.

Last month, the POP at the National Defence Academy, Kharakvalsa, was also a toned-down affair, with no parade being held. Instead, an indoor ceremony in the academy’s auditorium was conducted. Similarly, the graduation ceremony held last week at the Army Cadet College, attached to the IMA, where jawans selected to become officers are trained for three years, was also a low key affair.

The IMA holds two POPs each year, the other being in December. The event is seeped in military tradition and elan and proceeds with clockwork precision. Several events precede the POP such as the Commandant’s dinner, prize distribution and cultural programmes. The final day begins with paying tributes at the IMA war memorial and then falling in at the spruced up parade ground in front of the historic Chetwood Hall under the watchfull eyes of the Academy Adjutant mounted on a horse. The Academy Colours are brought on parade.

The reviewing officer then arrives, usually in a horse drawn carriage, and is received by the IMA Commandant and escorted to the saluting dias. Reviewing officers in the past have included presidents, prime ministers, defence ministers and service chiefs. After presenting the sword of honour and reviewing the parade, the reviewing officer addresses the gathering. Helicopters shower petals on the parade ground and there may also be a fly-past to mark the event. Cadets then march off the parade ground into the Chetwood Hall, taking the final step.

Next is the pipping ceremony in the lawns across the main road from the Chetwood Hall. Foreign cadets, whose relations may not have made it here, are pipped by Indian officers. Finally comes the oath taking ceremony where the Tricolour is brought on parade and the newly commissioned officers swear their allegiance to the Constitution.

The IMA was established in 1932 and imparts pre-commission training to officers. It takes in cadets from the NDA, who undergo 12 months training, as well as direct entry graduates who undergo 18 months training. It has trained about 65,000 officers so far, including about 3,000 from 30 friendly foreign countries.

PUNJAB EXPRESS BUREAU Chandigarh, December 07

To mark the National Flag Day, and setting the stage for the main Military Literature Festival (MLF) 2019, the former chiefs of the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force on Saturday paid their tributes to the martyrs at the War Memorial here.

The wreath-laying by former service chiefs General V P Malik (Retd.) along with Air Chief Marshal B S Dhanoa (Retd.) and Admiral Sunil Lanba ( Retd.) honoured the great sacrifices of the fallen soldiers who attained martyrdom defending the sovereignty and integrity of the nation in their line of duty.

The Guard Of Honour was presented by the Punjab Police contingent, while police jawans also played the piper band on the occasion, at which NCC cadets from Punjab and Haryana Directorate, and students of local city schools as well as people from all walks of life joined in offering their respects to the martyrs.

After the wreath-laying ceremony, the former Service Chiefs, along with Senior Advisor to the Punjab Chief Minister Lt. Gen. T S Shergil (Retd.), flagged off the Bravehearts Motorcycle Ride, lauding the participants for their endeavour in disseminating the message to guard against drug abuse.

Streaming out here from outside the Chandigarh Club, 425 dashing drivers, including veteran defence and serving officers, amplified the state government’s Anti-Drug drive, as they urged

the youth to shun the path of drugs and live their lives with verve, vigour and dignity, as exemplified by the ethos and culture of the armed forces.

The ride, designed to encourage riders from across the northern region, also witnessed 12 groups aboard their Royal Enfield machines, joining the veterans on National Flag Day in paying homage to the supreme sacrifice of the fallen soldier.

Adorning attractive MLF arm bands, the Triumph, BMW, Harley machine riders were greeted with cheers as they drove through the city to their destination, the Chandimandir Cantonment. The Blue on the shoulders of veterans symbolized sacrifice as a mark of respect to their comrades.

Prominent amongst others present during the occasion Canadian Consular General Chandigarh Mia Yen, YPS Director Major General TPS Waraich, and OSD/Senior Advisor Karanveer Singh.

The twelve groups which took part in the ride included The Thumpers, The Fbi Bulls, The Bajaj Avengers, The Brotherhood Circle besides The Hh 100 Te, The Soaring Eagles, The Road Survivors, The Highway Riders and The Nomads, The Road Runners, The Trag & The Royal Enfield Zirakpur constituted the twelve rider groups which participated in the rally.

Complementing the organisers for coming up with these novel ideas to promote a well deserved cause, General Shergill, who is also the Chairman of the MLF Association, called for more such events in the future.  The Fest was primarily aimed at invoking patriotism amongst the youth and giving them exposure to the rich military history of Punjab, he added, lauding Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh for taking the personal initiative to ensure the success of this mega event since its launch in 2017.

MLF, the joint initiative of distinguished military historian and the Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh, Punjab Governor V P Singh Badnore in collaboration with Western Command, is in its third glorious year.

The three-day main event, from December 13 to 14, will provide a conducive platform for liberal, inclusive and stimulating exchange of ideas on issues of international, national and regional significance, besides offering a rare peep into the life of defence personnel.

New Delhi: India has decided to step up talks with China both at diplomatic as well as military levels to mitigate the situation and maintain “peace and tranquillity” as tensions continue in the border areas in Ladakh.

Since Friday, New Delhi and Beijing have held two rounds of talks to explore ways to resolve the month-long standoff along several sections of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh.

“Talks at commanders’ level will be further followed up at diplomatic levels as well,” a top official told ThePrint after both sides held two rounds of meetings at the level of diplomats as well as the military.

On Saturday, talks were held between the military commanders of India and China in the Chushul-Moldo region. The meeting was convened between Lt General Harinder Singh, commander of the Leh-based 14 Corps who led the Indian delegation, and South Xinjiang Military District Commander Major General Liu Lin, who represented the Chinese side.

“It took place in a cordial and positive atmosphere. Both sides agreed to peacefully resolve the situation in the border areas in accordance with various bilateral agreements and keeping in view the agreement between the leaders that peace and tranquility in the India-China border regions is essential for the overall development of bilateral relations,” the Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement Sunday.

The MEA also said both sides will “continue the military and diplomatic engagements to resolve the situation and to ensure peace and tranquility in the border areas”.

“In recent weeks, India and China have maintained communications through established diplomatic and military channels to address the situation in areas along the India-China border,” it added.

Also read: ‘April status quo’ discussed as India, China generals hold 7-hour meeting over Ladakh

Wuhan, Mamallapurm commitments reiterated 

The army commanders’ meeting was preceded by a video-conference between Naveen Srivastava, Joint Secretary (East Asia), and Wu Jianghao, Director-General in the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

During that meeting, both sides had recalled the commitment reached by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the two informal summits of Wuhan (2018) and Mamallapurm (2019) when both these leaders vowed that differences should not be allowed to become disputes.

They also reiterated the pacts that both these countries have agreed to since 1993 aimed at border management and maintaining peace and tranquillity.

The pacts are the 1993 Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas; the 1996 Agreement on Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field along the LAC; the 2005 Protocol on Modalities for the Implementation of the Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field along the LAC; the 2012 Agreement on the Establishment of a Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs; and 2013 Border Defence Cooperation Agreement.

India and China military commanders, who held a 7-hour-long meeting on Saturday, agreed to continue discussions over Ladakh standoff at the Brigadier-Colonel level

Remaining focused on time-bound infrastructure development, it will be pragmatic to reduce hype attached to construction and inauguration of infrastructure in sensitive areas. Concurrent requirement is to fast-track China-centric, joint theatre commands. To deter the Dragon, we must discard myths, accept new realities and reduce asymmetries.

Lt Gen KJ Singh (Retd)

Former Western Army Commander

Aspate of recent border stand-offs, at two ends of unsettled Sino-Indian border in Naku La (Sikkim), followed by multiple incursions in Ladakh-Galwan and Pangong Tso, is another manifestation of coercive salami slicing by China. For a more informed analysis, the requirement is to debunk prevalent myths and formulate a realistic template.

It is appropriate to start this process with ‘unsettled-settled’ border. The then Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said in 2005 that “Sikkim is no longer a problem between China and India.” In recent discussions, the Chinese Ambassador alluded to Sikkim as a low-hanging fruit, disregarding the prolonged standoff at Doklam. It is indeed comical that Chinese patrols regularly resort to childish pranks of disassembling cairns (stone heaps) on the Kerang plateau. The transgression at Naku La, in desolate and sparsely populated Muguthang valley was activated, most surprisingly, the first time in 2017. Galwan, the current flashpoint in Ladakh, is an apt example of ‘creeping claim lines’ by the Chinese. In contrast, our approach has been fuelled by optimism, conditioned by false notions.

Myth 1: Sino-Indian border is largely settled with just a few recorded and identified flashpoints. The harsh reality is that the PLA activates different areas, in keeping with their grand design, often as diversionary tactics. In this case, Naku La was a distraction for Galwan. We draw comfort from nuancing incursions as transgressions, but the unmistakable bottom line is — nothing is settled, till it is delimited, delineated and demarcated on the ground. We have to be prepared for the long haul with more surprises, as China is in no hurry to resolve issues.

Myth 2: Stand-offs are due to overreaction by local commanders. This is another false notion, a convenient excuse to pass the buck. Most stand-offs are recorded by PLA patrols with considerable play acting, giving an impression, that they are vectored by higher HQs. It will be prudent to surmise that the Chinese are masters in centrally planned but locally orchestrated events. In any case, Chinese Western Command controls the entire Tibet border against four different commands of India, micro-managed by the Army HQ, adding to confusion. Indian patrols have displayed remarkable restraint and maturity in face-offs. It throws up a disturbing possibility that ‘strategic guidance’ (agreed to at the summit level) is being flouted by the PLA, with tacit blessings.

Myth 3: The Chinese are superior to us. This myth needs to be junked. Objective comparison proves that our troops are more than a match for their counter parts. The 1962 syndrome was discarded in a resolute stand-off at Nathu La and Cho La, in 1967. Unfortunately, we have downplayed, this heroic action, as skirmish to avoid embarrassing the PLA. In fact, most Chinese troops are conscript variety with questionable domain competence. In Somdrong Chu and other stand-offs over the years, as also UN operations, Chinese vulnerability has been exposed, repeatedly.

Myth 4: Chinese technological asymmetry will cripple adversaries even before the battle is joined. The much hyped technology is yet to be operationalised and is severely degraded by high altitude and weather. On balance, it is part of psychological warfare and can’t be taken as game changer.

Myth 5: By and large, peace prevails as no bullet has been fired since 1967. This needs to be moderated with realisation that China is already waging unrestricted warfare. There is considerable evidence of Chinese engineered cyber disruption in our power grid. Pare-chu floods causing severe damage to power plants astride Sutlej and the more recent devastating deluge in Assam, coupled with denial of hydrological data are gross misuse of upper riparian leverages. Even in the current stand-off, water flow has been blocked in Galwan river. Pacifism is rooted in Deng’s maxim of economic consolidation, preceding precipitate military action, which has been discarded by Xi’s aggressively rising China.

Myth 6: In all situations, China will act responsibly, in accordance with stature. Will any responsible power misuse the pandemic for power play? Conventional wisdom, propagated by experts, is that Pakistan will invariably exploit Sino-Indian hostilities and intervene. China, showing maturity as a global power, will desist from exploiting Indo-Pak hostilities. Chinese reticence in 1971 and Kargil are cited as examples. However, the degree of collusive linkages have strengthened manifold with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Myth 7: China will show reciprocity and respect our sensitivities. 17 Corps, which was initially designated as Mountain Strike Corps and later played down with the dropping of ‘strike’ and curtailing of budgetary allocation has not resulted in any reduction in Chinese intransigence.

The coping strategy in dealing with China has to factor in existing asymmetry and should be confined within the bounds of realism. We have viable options, though limited, yet we must signal resolve. It may take considerable time, like Doklam, but our sensitivities in terms of security to the new Darbuk-DBO road and unfettered patrolling up to our claim lines, including Pangong Tso area should be ensured. In this age of 5G, nail-studded clubs, stoning and wrestling bouts on the LAC need to be eliminated. While diplomats and commanders are resolving the situation, the electronic media should enable an honourable resolution by avoiding rabble-rousing debates.

Remaining focused on time-bound infrastructure development, it will be pragmatic to reduce hype attached to construction and inauguration of infrastructure in sensitive areas. Concurrent requirement is to fast-track China-centric, joint theatre commands. The Mountain Corps needs to be customised as an agile force and most importantly funded to generate multiple quid pro quo options. To deter the Dragon, we must discard myths, accept new realities and reduce asymmetries.