Monthly Archives: August 2018

The US was not too inclined to hold these elections before the agreement so that the Taliban could also have put up their candidate. The conclusion of the Afghanistan election process has complicated the situation. Instead of power-sharing between the two major contenders, there is also a third player to be accommodated, who cannot be ignored. This is likely to weaken the Afghan government’s position, which may become an advantage to the Taliban.

Lt Gen NPS Hira (retd)

Former Deputy Chief of Army Staff

The United States and the Taliban have signed an agreement, which both are happy to sign for their own reasons. A reduction of hostilities by the Taliban was a good face-saving clause for the US to sign the agreement and start withdrawing its forces. The Taliban are happy to see the US troops pull out. The essence of the agreement is that the Taliban will not permit the Afghan soil to be used for launching attacks on the US and the US has agreed on a time schedule of withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan.

There is no guarantee about peace in Afghanistan or the contours of a future political set-up. Down the line, if the hostilities re-escalate, the gainer will be the Taliban, who will have to fight the weakened Afghan government forces due to the partial or full US pullout. Trump will also not be unhappy either to have found a reason to extricate a part of his forces in the election year, this being a part of his election manifesto in the last elections. The Taliban having refused the ceasefire, the United States agreed for a ‘reduction in violence’ as a pre-condition for the pullout. Since the Taliban are keen to see the US exit from Afghanistan, they did reduce the violence to give them a reason to exit.

Another stage-managed development coming out of Afghanistan is the words of Sirajuddin Haqqani, deputy leader of the Afghan Taliban. He wrote a letter to the New York Times expressing the Taliban’s desire for peace in Afghanistan. He stated that the Taliban were committed to working with other parties in a consultative manner, to form an inclusive political system, in which the voice of every Afghan is reflected. He espoused that in future, the support of the international community would be crucial to stabilising and developing Afghanistan. After the US withdraws its troops, the US may play a constructive role in the post-war reconstruction of Afghanistan.

Sirajuddin is the head of the Haqqani faction of the Afghan Taliban, which is one of the most dreaded militant groups in Afghanistan. No one may believe that the Taliban have had a change of heart, but these good words do indicate the new posture of the Taliban, who want to project themselves as a mature political force to take over the reins of Afghanistan.

The only baton available with the Taliban to achieve their agenda on their own terms is their military pressure on the Afghan government. The peaceful postures besides, they cannot afford to let the military pressure go, nor can they slow it down for a long time. They are likely to maintain adequate pressure on the Afghan government till their objectives are met.

The new spanner in the works seems to be the recently concluded Afghan presidential elections. The election commission has declared Ghani to be the winner. The elections have been anything but smooth. The initial voting was 2.7 million. After about one million votes were purged, only 1.8 million votes were counted.

Abdullah Abdullah has lost out by only a 10 per cent vote share. He has already declared the elections to be a fraud by Ghani. He has declared that he will form a parallel government. He is supported by General Abdul Rashid Dostum, the vice-president in the previous government, and some other warlords, with a sizeable following.

The US was not too inclined to hold these elections before the agreement so that the Taliban could also have put up their candidate. As per indications, the US has not accepted the legitimacy of these elections so far. The conclusion of the election process has complicated the situation. Instead of power-sharing between the two major contenders, there is also a third player to be accommodated, who cannot be ignored. This is likely to weaken the Afghan government’s position, which may benefit the Taliban.

Subsequent to the signing of the agreement, a new development is that Ghani has refused to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners which is a part of the deal between the US and the Taliban. This clause is indeed a precondition for the talks between the Taliban and Afghan political groups. Ghani’s apprehensions are valid that if peace talks do not fructify, releasing 5,000 Taliban prisoners will be counter-productive for him.

Secondly, these prisoners are an important bargaining chip with him during the talks. In response to Ghani’s stand, the Taliban have expectedly responded with a tough stand by announcing re-commencement of operations against government forces. Such a stand by the Taliban appears to be the harbinger of the things to follow.

Should India agree to send a peacekeeping force to Afghanistan, if so requested? This is a subject on which opinion could be divided. If India agrees to induct some troops in Afghanistan, it will give India an enhanced leverage on the Afghan situation in future. However, this request from the Afghan government is also an indication that in case hostilities do not come to an end, the Afghan government is not confident of holding the Taliban on its own. India has so far not built enough confidence with the Taliban for them to treat India as a neutral force. Therefore, there are inherent risks in the situation, which can boomerang on India. It could lead to a direct confrontation with the Taliban, which India has been able to avoid so far by design or default.

It is difficult for any army to operate in another country in a fluid situation like the existing forces operating in Afghanistan. An Indian contingent with a peacekeeping monitoring mandate may be acceptable. But if the situation turns to peace enforcement, the military operations tend to cause unavoidable collateral damageto civilians. Such incidents tend to anger the local populace against the security forces of the outside countries.

We have had a similar experience in Sri Lanka. Afghanistan is more volatile. Pakistan will be happy to fight India in Afghanistan through its proxies. India would find itself sucked into the quagmire. Therefore, we may like to avoid such a situation.

The US-Taliban agreement has given a leg-up to the Taliban over the Afghan government. The agreement is unlikely to end the conflict immediately. But whatever time frame it ends in, the Taliban are likely to emerge as the dominant player in the future political set-up. To defeat Pakistan’s long-cherished design of strategic depth in Afghanistan, India may rather build on the goodwill of Afghan people and the resurgent Taliban. This agreement has further enhanced the political legitimacy of the Taliban. It’s time for India to be pragmatic.

Jammu, March 6

At the moment, J&K is caught in a vortex of an unprecedented spell of political instability, with no blueprint in sight to revive the democratic institutions. It has been reduced to a theatre of absurd, the choreography of which is making the revival of political process more complex.

Political inertia

The Congress has lost its moorings. It is suffering from political inertia plaguing the party at the national level. The BJP, the most vibrant national party, that until June 2018, was an active partner in the coalition government with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), is unable to drive the narrative of stability for it is lost in its own contradictions in J&K. It is uncertain whether J&K should stay as UT or return to statehood.

The Congress has lost its moorings. It is suffering from political inertia plaguing the party at the national level.

The BJP, the most vibrant national party, that until June 2018, was an active partner in the coalition government with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), is unable to drive the narrative of stability for it is lost in its own contradictions in J&K. It is uncertain whether J&K should stay as UT or return to statehood. The local unit of the BJP is split into countless groups, where each leader is waiting to become Chief Minister, without any plans for the Assembly polls.

It is a situation with an unbridgeable vacuum. No amount of stop-gap arrangements or experiments without any defined roadmap can chart the course for the revival of the political landscape.

The truer statement, as many agree, is that J&K is politically most unstable. The problem lies with the policy failure. A visibly and palpably animated democracy is a must in this part of India. It is a national necessity.

Post scrapping of the special status granting Article 370 and doing away with the statehood on August 5 last year, it also is a prerequisite to blunt the mounting international criticism on Kashmir.

The chronology of the events is self-speaking.

The BJP withdrew support to the Mehbooba Mufti-led coalition government without having a plan B. It was nebulous and based on speculative politics of attracting lawmakers from here and there to cobble a set-up without testing its stability for future.

Even that was a half-baked approach, the events that followed proved the naivety of the whole plan.

On receiving fax from the BJP leaders about the withdrawal of the support to the Mehbooba Mufti government, the then Governor NN Vohra invoked the Constitution. He called leaders of different political parties, followed it up by convening an all-party meeting wanting to know whether they could set up a group to form the government. Since all of them declined, he recommended Governor’s rule and announced the Assembly to be kept under suspended animation.

His act of consulting political groups and imposing the Governor’s rule was appreciated by Union Home Minister Amit Shah on June 29, 2019, on the floor of Parliament, where he had stated: “The Governor (Vohra) had consulted all parties before imposing the Governor’s rule.”

Vohra had also refused to install any government made of defectors, for he knew how the Kashmir situation had taken a turn for the worse when a government of defectors was installed in July 1984 within hours after the dismissal of the duly elected government of Farooq Abdullah.

He had the record of holding elections in 2008 in the immediate aftermath of the massive Amarnath land row agitation that year. He had proved the doomsayers wrong. That was done within six months of the Governor’s rule to avoid the state sliding into the President’s rule.

Again, in 2014, when the century’s worst floods hit Kashmir, the elections were held. He did not yield to pressures urging him to impose the Governor’s rule and defer the polls.

Things started sliding after the new Governor Satya Pal Malik dissolved the Assembly on November 21, 2018 – the day when a combination of groups like the NC, Congress and PDP staked their claim to form the government.

The competing claim was made by Sajjad Gani Lone, People’s Conference leader. Instead of judging merit of the two rival claims, Malik dissolved the House. That ended the prospects of early elections. And, on December 19, 2018, the state came under the President’s rule.

The parliamentary elections were held in 2019. But the Assembly elections were not held at all. Security concerns were voiced, overlooking the contradiction that similar concerns were valid for the parliamentary, panchayat – now hanging in balance after massive boycott in the Valley – and municipal polls. The security concerns were a concoction as Malik had himself declared that not even a bird was hit during the (civic body polls), but there were no answers as to why similar narrative could not apply for the Assembly polls.

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, March 4

Army Chief Gen MM Naravane on Wednesday said the Army was looking at lasers and directed energy weapons for possible military use.

He was speaking at an international seminar on “Changing characteristics of land warfare and its impact on the military” organised by Army-backed think-tank Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS).

The Army Chief said the force was embracing technologies and inducting them with speed into units. “The leveraging of emerging, disruptive domains is also receiving our concerted attention. Capacities in space, cyber and electronic warfare, similarly, are being given a boost,” Gen Naravane said.

Apart from strengthening conventional prowess, the Army was focusing on dynamic response — that would mean actions below the threshold of an all-out war — and plans and capacities are being refined along the Line of Control with Pakistan and Line of Actual Control (LAC).

“We are developing kinetic and non-kinetic responses to address the threat. Technology is also tipping doctrinal cycles. Doctrines are now chasing technologies. We are also looking at tapping ‘block chain technologies’ (these allow digital information to be distributed, but not copied),” the Army Chief added.

Rapidly evolving, dual-use technologies present new opportunities and are changing the character of warfare. Armies, have to be extremely agile to the scale and pace of change.

No change in nuclear policy

New Delhi: Months after Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said he didn’t know what would happen in future with regard to nuclear “no first use” policy, the government on Wednesday said in Parliament, “There has been no change in India’s N-doctrine.” TNS

New Delhi, March 6

In view of the scare caused by the coronavirus, the Indian armed forces have issued advisories. The Army on Friday issued instructions to all military stations asking to avoid and postpone all non-essential mass gatherings like festivals, welfare activities and public gatherings till the situation improves.

“Local military authorities will exercise suitable control to avoid and postpone such gatherings”, says the advisory. This is in consonance with various advisories issued by the government for preparations and emergency response in tackling COVID-19.

Military hospitals have been asked to establish isolation wards and separate OPDs for screening. Hospitals will work in synergy with local civil medical authorities and designated Indian Council of Medical Research labs.

The Army Service personnel have been advised to use shopping complex facilities within the cantonment or military stations and avoid visits to crowded areas. All non-essential foreign travel is to be avoided, says the advisory. The 1.3-million strong Army has troops living in common or close proximity in forward areas.

In the Navy more than 15 ships are out on patrol or sailing duties. None of the ships have been called back. The IAF has issued its own dos and dont’s especially in bases where repairs are done and have large presence in enclosed areas. — TNS

jay Banerjee
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, March 5

In a decision to curtail expenses, the Department of Military Affairs, headed by General Bipin Rawat, has cut down foreign travel of officers of the armed forces. General Rawat, who is also the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), has asked for rationalising ‘foreign travel’ of officers.

Visits are now being cleared on selective case-to-case basis. Sources within the ministry confirmed the directions had originated from the office of the Department of Military Affairs.

Before the Chief of Defence Staff was appointed on January 1, each service moved its case of foreign visit by its officers through the ‘Establishment Section’ of the Department of Defence. In the previous arrangement too, all cases of foreign visit were not okayed.

General Rawat has asked the three forces to rationalise all visits to foreign countries and try and avoid diplomatic visits by separate services to same country.

In a way, the Department of Military Affairs will rationalise as to which country is the priority. Within the Ministry of Defence, there is a foreign services officer at the Joint Secretary-level attached to give advice on a daily basis.

Foreign trips of military officers are for training, joint exercises, trying out equipment, to liaise with other countries for visits of top military brass.

The permission is given by the Ministry of Defence and sometimes, the Ministry of External Affairs wants an outreach and it coordinates. In case of the Navy, there is outreach on Africa and Asia Pacific, while in case of the Air Force and the Army, the outreach is at multiple levels in neighbouring countries.

Islamabad, March 6

Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi has said Pakistan does not want any security role for India in Afghanistan as he accused New Delhi of playing the role of a “spoiler” in the war-torn country, according to a media report.

After months of negotiations, the US and Taliban signed a landmark peace deal in Qatari capital Doha on Saturday, effectively drawing curtains on the United States’ 18-year war in Afghanistan since 2001.

Addressing the Senate on Wednesday, Qureshi said Pakistan neither desires “any security role of India in Afghanistan” nor wants presence of militant organisations — Al-Qaeda and the ISIS — in the landlocked country, The Nation reported.

The foreign minister told the Upper House that India had always played role of a spoiler, the report said. “There were spoilers in the past and they are even today, within and outside Afghanistan, who want to get their own objectives,” Qureshi said.

India has been a key stakeholder in Afghanistan as it had already spent around $2 billion in reconstruction of the war-ravaged country.

India has been maintaining that care should be taken to ensure that any peace process does not lead to any “ungoverned spaces” where terrorists can relocate.

Ahead of the peace deal, India conveyed to the US that pressure on Pakistan to crack down on terror networks operating from its soil must be kept up though Islamabad’s cooperation for peace in Afghanistan is crucial. Qureshi on Sunday also warned that “spoilers” could try to sabotage the peace process in Afghanistan. He also said Pakistan wanted to resolve all issues with Afghanistan bilaterally.

Reiterating that Pakistan was never part of the peace talks and their role “has always been and will always be” that of a facilitator, he said Pakistan cannot give guarantee or take responsibility to peace in Afghanistan. “This is a shared responsibility, and all (stakeholders) will have to play their role. There are many powers, interests (involved),” he said. — PTI

Singh’s rise to power came after a period of economic and political uncertainty

London, March 6

Maharaja Ranjit Singh, the 19th century ruler of the Sikh Empire in India, has beaten competition from around the world to be named the “Greatest Leader of All Time” in a poll conducted by ‘BBC World Histories Magazine’.

Over 5,000 readers voted in the poll. Polling more than 38 per cent of the vote, Singh was praised for creating a new tolerant empire.

In second place, with 25 per cent of the vote, is African Independence Fighter Amílcar Cabral, who united more than 1 million Guineans to free themselves from Portuguese occupation and in turn propelled many other colonised African countries to rise and fight for independence.

Also read:

The Glorious Reign of Maharaja Ranjit Singh

Sikh ruler’s 9-ft sculpture installed at Lahore Fort

Britain’s war-time Prime Minister Winston Churchill is at number three with 7 per cent of the vote for his quick decision and sharp political manoeuvring that kept Britain in the war.

Further down the list, American President Abraham Lincoln is at four and British monarch Elizabeth I is the highest ranked female leader at five.

The nominations were sought from global historians, including Matthew Lockwood, Rana Mitter, Margaret MacMillan and Gus Casely-Hayford, who selected their “Greatest Leader” – someone who exercised power and had a positive impact on humanity.

The resulting top 20 included some of the most celebrated leaders in history across the globe from the UK, the US, to Asia and Africa, including the likes of Mighal Emperor Akbar, French military leader Joan of Arc and Russian Empress Catherine the Great, with the list topped by Ranjit Singh.

“Though perhaps not as familiar as some of the other names on the list, Ranjit Singh’s overwhelming success in our poll suggests that the qualities of his leadership continue to inspire people around the world in the 21st century,” said Matt Elton, Editor of ‘BBC World History Magazine’ of leading historians.

“And, at a time of global political tensions, it’s telling that Singh’s rule is interpreted as representing ideals of tolerance, freedom and cooperation,” he said.

Described as the “Lion of Punjab”, Singh’s rise to power came after a period of economic and political uncertainty.

The magazine notes that by the early decades of the 19th century, he had modernised the Sikh Khalsa army, embraced western innovations without abandoning local forms and institutions, unified the fractious misls or states, stabilised the frontier with Afghanistan, and reached a mutually beneficial detente with the British East India Company.

“Singh, however, was more than a mere conqueror. While the Indian subcontinent was riven with imperial competition, religious strife and wars of conquest, Singh was, almost uniquely, a unifier – a force for stability, prosperity and tolerance,” it notes.

Also read: 

‘Black Prince’ rekindles debate on Duleep Singh’s last rites

UK town to be Amritsar’s twin city in memory of Maharaja Duleep Singh

How Duleep Singh ‘handed’ Kohinoor to the Queen

When Duleep Singh said ‘no’ to the Queen

Singh’s name was nominated by Lockwood, who is assistant professor of history at the University of Alabama, as a modernising and uniting force, whose reign “marked a golden age for Punjab and north-west India”.

“This golden age would not survive him. After his death in 1839, Ranjit Singh’s empire of toleration unravelled. The British invaded, the Sikh empire collapsed and instability returned to the region,” says Lockwood.

“Though certainly an imperialist, Ranjit Singh represented a different, more enlightened, more inclusive model of state-building, and a much-needed path towards unity and toleration. We could still benefit from his example,” he adds. — PTI

Our Correspondent

Abohar, March 2

Family members of an Army man who allegedly ended his life in a makeshift jail inside the military station here on Friday night today organised a silent protest outside the City-1 police station.

Ankit (25), who hailed from Bahavari village of Shamli district in Uttar Pradesh, had gone on annual leave but didn’t report back on duty after the prescribed period. As per the rules, he was on February 6 directed to spend 28 days as punishment in the makeshift jail. However, he reportedly committed suicide by hanging himself on Friday night.

Ankit’s father Rakesh other family members carried placards to demand justice. In a three-page memorandum given to the authorities concerned, the kin said they were on Saturday informed at 2 am that Ankit had committed suicide. As they reached Abohar, the authorities had reportedly got autopsy of the body conducted in their absence, and this was a violation of the law, they alleged.

Ambala, March 3

A woman Major of the Indian Army, currently posted in Ambala Cantonment, has accused her husband, also a Major, of thrashing her.

In her complaint to the police, the woman officer alleged that they had tied the knot in February 2015 and have a three-year-old daughter. There were some matrimonial issues between them for the past some time. On February 26, her husband asked her to accompany him as he was going to meet an advocate. Later, she came to know that her husband wanted to take divorce and asked her to sign the divorce papers, she alleged.

As she refused, they had an argument after they reached home and her husband allegedly thrashed her, she alleged, adding that due to repeated slaps on her face, blood started oozing out of her left ear.

She went to the Military Hospital for treatment where the doctor told her that her eardrum was damaged.

As per the complainant, she has raised the matter with a senior official of her unit too.

A case under Sections 323, 325 and 506 of the IPC has been registered at the Ambala Cantonment police station. The Ambala police have obtained the report from the Military Hospital which stated that as of today, the injury is grievous in nature. However, she needs regular follow-up as the severity of injury may change in due course of time.

Vijay Kumar, SHO, Ambala Cantonment police station, said, “A case has been registered on the complaint of the woman Major. We are in touch with the senior official of her unit. The matter is being investigated. Further action will be taken accordingly.” — TNS