Monthly Archives: August 2018

Pakistan is indeed a strange country beyond any sense of rationalism. Only three days ago Human Rights Minister Shireen Mazari presented a strategic conflict resolution model for Jammu and Kashmir with the intent that the international community could get India to negotiate on the alleged dispute.

Since his election to office, Prime Minister Imran Khan has urged India a number of times to engage in talks without offering any commensurate commitment towards cessation of sponsored terror in Jammu and Kashmir or elsewhere in India.

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which identifies national-level vulnerabilities with the aim of protecting the international financial system from misuse, has placed Pakistan on its grey list for its failure to take sufficient action to curb financial networks that support and assist terror-related activities.

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Down to just $8.5 billion in foreign exchange reserves, Pakistan, which has been struggling with a failing economy, has just been given a short lease of life in the form of a $3billion deposit and similar quantum of energy support, by Saudi Arabia.

Even as Pakistan reportedly seeks a $9-10 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), an organisation majorly controlled by the US, on 26 October, 2018, Pakistan took the decision to lift its internal ban on the JuD and Falah-e-Insaniyat Foundation (FIF), headed by 26/11 mastermind and well-known terrorist leader Hafiz Saeed. Both the organisations and Saeed had been banned by a presidential ordinance after they came on the UN Security Council terror list. Saeed recently challenged the ordinance on grounds that the Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government has taken no action to convert the ordinance into law within the prescribed 120 days.

The United Nations Security Council had designated JuD as a terrorist organisation under Resolution 1,267 after the Mumbai attacks. In 2014, the US administration had added JuD in the global terrorist organisations’ list.

Though Khan’s government has the option of extending the ordinance for another four months after which if not converted to law by the legislature, the ordinance will lapse, it hasn’t.

Most times, it’s extremely difficult to understand Pakistan as a nation. At one end, its citizenry fully acknowledge that Saeed and his organisation only mean trouble for Pakistan’s already low international reputation, especially at a time when the nation is in dire straits on the economic front. But internally, there is, a fairly large segment which is enamoured by the JuD and FIF’s social activities. The organisation under its original avatar Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) was at the forefront of rescue and relief work during the 2008 earthquake in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and runs several charity organisations which draws to it a degree of emotional support but does not manifest into political dividend.

Since the JuD creates no internal disturbances and largely focuses on terror activities in India (more specifically in Jammu and Kashmir) and to an extent in Afghanistan, it’s supported by the deep state and evokes a positive response from common citizens.

Fund collection drives in the name of jihad in Jammu and Kashmir are extremely popular. However, the reputation it carries internationally, especially after the 26/11 Mumbai Attacks, has placed it on watch lists and constant surveillance. Branded as friendly terrorists in the parlance of Pakistan’s strange internal security environment the JuD’s virulent anti-India stance helps keep it afloat and accepted despite a $10 million bounty on Saeed’s head.

It’s not as if the JuD’s nuisance potential is not recognised by the deep state. A senior retired US Army officer mentioned that when the Pakistan Army Chief was once privately queried on why doesn’t, in the interest of better India-Pak relations, the Pakistan Army stop the JuD from carrying out infiltration into Indian territory, the reply was that: it was a good safety valve to let out the steam. He felt that by being focused towards India, the JuD remained a strategic asset which could otherwise be an immense nuisance internally if restrained from its objectives.

None can, however, explain how Pakistan runs the risk of large scale hostilities with India given that the JuD’s actions lead to events that act as triggers for India to respond militarily.

Pakistan appears convinced that India is unprepared to risk a nuclear conflagration and therefore feels confident that it can continue this policy within India’s limits of tolerance. A greater Indian demonstration of will could act as a restraint on Pakistan’s use of JuD as a strategic asset.

The above notions now appear at risk. Clearly, the combined effect of national financial bankruptcy, FATF monitoring, application for IMF bailout, India’s diplomatic offensive, the lack of any commensurate Chinese initiative for economic bailout, and the questioning about the viability of coercive debt traps in nations partnered by China for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (Pakistan being one of the flag bearers with its CPEC), should place Pakistan under immense pressure. The only explanation for Pakistan remaining fairly unconcerned about the risk it is running for — a potential meltdown financially as well as from a law and order angle — is that it realises its own nuisance potential. Its geostrategic location being such it demands international attention.

The US under President DOnald Trump has displayed a higher level of coercive capability against Pakistan but at the end of the day it’s only Pakistan’s cooperation which can stabilise Afghanistan to allow the US to leave with its head held high. Its strategic nuclear assets remain a source of great worry so a meltdown is not something that the international community can ever allow in Pakistan.

The deep state led by the Pakistan Army thus has its stakes high and is willing to run risks. Actions against Saeed and JuD constitute disturbing the internal balance, and drawing down from a proxy war against India — that Pakistan perceives it is winning — is not acceptable. So, nothing is likely to happen on the lapse of the ordinance.

At the most, a second ordinance for another 120 days will be issued and a forced constitutional amendment could well be on the cards to overlook the JuD and 66 other organisations which come under the purview of the ordinance. While many in the Pakistan government will offer oversight as a reason for this lapse with supposed ‘more important’ issues occupying Khan’s mind, it is clear that Saeed, JuD and FIF are strategic assets in more ways than just terrorists aimed at India. They give enough cause for concern to those who worry for Pakistan’s overall nuisance potential especially in the context of the compulsive issue of strategic nuclear assets. The more that threat is subtly played out, the greater the chances of bailout packages being made available. As stated earlier rationality is not something which can be applied in analysing Pakistan.

Tribune News Service

Jammu, November 6

Lt Gen YK Joshi, General Officer Commanding (GOC), Fire & Fury Corps, on Tuesday interacted with troops deployed in sub-zero temperature on the rugged and mountainous locations of western Ladakh on Diwali-eve.

Lt General Joshi greeted the troops and their families on Diwali.

He complimented the soldiers for their service to the nation in remote and inhospitable terrain and weather conditions.

Later in the day, the GOC paid homage to martyrs at the Kargil War Memorial, Drass, and also interacted with troops.

Terming hybrid warfare — using non-state actors against an adversary nation — as “not the best option”, Indian Army chief General Bipin Rawat on Wednesday said this tactic was causing more damage to Pakistan than to India.

“Any nation that has attempted hybrid warfare against an adversary has finally been the sufferer. Today, Pakistan is facing that brunt,” Rawat said while delivering a lecture on “Challenges of hybrid conflict in 21st century”.

“They (Pakistan) supported something in Afghanistan but after the imbroglio was over, what happened to those people (the jihadis)? This hybrid warfare launched by them (Pakistan) has actually started affecting them more than it is affecting us,” Rawat said.

However, he warned that the proxy war by Pakistan is there to stay despite all the things and despite India’s effective tackling of it.

Responding to a query as to why India, even after suffering for decades, does not launch offensive hybrid warfare against Pakistan, Rawat said it is not the best option for India, and emphasised that India is satisfactorily countering this warfare directed against it. “Paying the other fellow exactly in the same coin may not be the best option. A stone that is thrown in the air comes back to your head.

“Before we launch the hybrid warfare in the offensive-defensive domain, we should be prepared to see what will happen to those people once the objective is achieved. What you do with those people?” he said.

While he underlined that India does have the capability to launch an offensive hybrid warfare or even “strike across” at those perpetrating the hybrid offensive against it, the army chief said for that the Indian leadership must be clear as to how far the country can go if an escalation happens.

“India will have to carefully work on the escalation matrix as to how far it was willing to go if escalation happens,” he added.

He said to counter such operations by Pakistan, which include a propaganda on the social media, various Indian forces and agencies need to work together in close coordination.

Rawat said India can utilise its soft power with friendly nations to isolate the terror-exporting nation and offered that the Indian Army can help the country expand its soft power in many ways.

Speaking on the Kashmir situation, Rawat said that sustained pressure is needed to tire out the militants instead of wrongly believing after a peaceful year in the Valley that lasting peace has returned.

“When things become comfortable, we would go into this limbo thinking that peace has returned, not knowing that every time the peace returns, the nexus has utilised this period to rebuild their capacities and strength. And therefore sustained pressure is required,” Rawat said.

“What I am trying to highlight is that you get one successful year and you say let’s give peace a chance. That is I think a fault that you have been committing.

“If you think that just after having one successful year you should give peace a chance, that may not be the best option. You should have repeated successes and then think of giving peace a chance. And that is what we are doing now. Let us look at tiring the other side,” he added.

He also rued that the army faces flak even for taking a tough action against those pelting stones at it.

India has received a joint submarine design and construction proposal from Russia to build on the technology transfer acquired while building the nuclear fleet, and promises to drastically reduce the cost of Navy’s next-generation vessel plan.

The proposal, believed to have been discussed at the top level during the Sochi summit in May, offers an alternative to an upcoming $10 b P 75I tender for six new diesel electric submarines that the Navy requires. These are to be fitted with an Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system that significantly increases their ability to stay underwater.

“The Russian side has offered a transfer of all intellectual property for the design and prototype construction. This will mean that there are also no limits to the number of submarines that can be built under the project…,” officials familiar with the details told ET.

While the current plan is to go in for a global competitive process that will involve companies from Russia, France, Germany and Sweden, the official proposal from Moscow is for a government-to-government deal for joint design with the Advanced Technology Vessel Project (ATVP). This is the project that gave India its first nuclear armed submarine, the INS Arihant, which was constructed in Vizag with considerable assistance from Russia.

A line of nuclear armed and nuclear powered submarines will be rolled out under the project which has completed the Indian nuclear triad — the ability to launch warheads from air, land and underwater.

Sources told ET that the proposal is for joint design and building of a prototype, following which the technical knowhow and papers would be transferred to the selected Indian shipyard for construction. The design consultancy for the project is pegged at under $200 million, something that could result in savings of immediate payments for the Navy for its next-generation submarines.

Under the competitive process, an initial payment of over $ 2 billion (20% of total cost) might be necessary, which given the Navy’s current budget projections, seems difficult. The proposal seeks to design the submarine to meet Indian requirements, including installation of the Brahmos missiles on board, as well as a jointly developed AIP system with the Defence Research and Development Organisation.

Sources involved in the Indian nuclear submarine project said that the proposal can build on the technology that has already been transferred to India but has to be scrutinized carefully to ensure that critical knowhow is not held back. Several parts required under the proposal are already being produced in India, including high strength steel for submarine hulls.

Washington, November 25

The then Bush administration had mobilised special forces to neutralise Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) terrorists holding people hostage in hotels during the deadly Mumbai terror attack in November 2008, a former White House official has revealed.

But, before the Indian authorities gave the necessary clearances and the special forces could take off for Mumbai from an overseas regional location, Indian commandos had already completed their job, said Anish Goel, who was part of the White House’s 26/11 crisis management group.

Recalling the developments at the White House during the 2008 Thanksgiving weekend, Goel said the US had “some (special forces) teams in the region that we were willing to deploy quickly”. “In the beginning, the Indians were reluctant to accepting US assistance. But, as the attack dragged on for two-three days, they became more accepting of US assistance,” Goel said. — PTI

The operation is still under way. Tribune file

Majid Jahangir

Tribune News Service

Srinagar, November 25

Four militants were killed in a gunfight in south Kashmir’s Shopian district on Sunday, officials said.

The gunfight broke at Kapran village of Shopian around 1.30 am when a joint team of the police, Army and CRPF were carrying a cordon and search operation after a specific input about the presence of militants in the area.

“As the forces zeroed in on the suspected area, the militants opened fire, triggering a gunfight. In the gunfight that followed, four militants have been killed so far,” a police officer said. The toll may mount as the operation is still under way.

While identity and the group affiliation of militants is being established by police, sources said the slain include top commanders of Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Toiba

This is the second major encounter in south Kashmir since Friday. On November 23, six local militants, including a top Lashkar-e-Toiba commander accused of murdering top journalist Shujaat Bukhari in June this year, were killed in a gunfight in Bijbehara area of Anantnag district.

A vehicle plies on the Manali-Keylong highway after the restoration of the Rohtang Pass for traffic on Friday.

Snow being removed on the route. Tribune photos

Dipender Manta

Tribune News Service

Mandi, November 23

The Border Roads Organisation (BRO) restored the Rohtang Pass, the gateway to Lahaul on the Manali-Leh highway, for vehicular movement on Friday afternoon. The pass was closed on November 12 following heavy snowfall.

Residents of tribal district Lahaul-Spiti heaved a sigh of relief with the opening of the pass. They suffered a lot after the closure of Rohtang, which left them with no road connectivity and telecommunication services.

They also demanded to move through the Rohtang tunnel, but the BRO authority refused to let them pass, citing security reasons as the tunnel is under construction.

After a lot of drama, the BRO had to clear snow from the road across the Rohtang Pass after some Lahaul villagers tried to use an under-construction tunnel as an alternative earlier this week. As many as 80 persons entered the tunnel forcibly to reach Manali on Monday. Some of them fell unconscious due to lack of oxygen.

This mounted pressure on the BRO as well as the state government, which raised the issue with the Defence Ministry to ask the BRO to engage its workforce and machinery to restore the pass.

BRO Commander Col AK Awasthi said: “With the tireless efforts of the BRO workforce, the pass has been restored for traffic. Our workers defied odds and worked in freezing temperature to clear the snow on the Manali-Leh highway via the Rohtang Pass to provide road connectivity to the people of Lahaul-Spiti.”

Ramesh Kumar, a resident of Lahaul, said: “We are thankful to the BRO as well as the state government for restoring the pass. In Lahaul, around 1,200 bags of potato produce (50kg each) are trapped in the Miyar valley. The people have been requesting the state government to make arrangements for its transportation at the earliest.”

He said the Rohtang Pass could shut anytime in the coming days due to snowfall and the government should take steps to transport the potato produce out of the Lahaul valley as soon as possible.

The movement of tourist vehicles is allowed up to Gulaba only and no vehicle will be allowed to move towards the Rohtang Pass.

Manali SDM Raman Gharsangi told The Tribune that the movement of tourist vehicles was restricted. “Only residents of Lahaul are allowed to travel between Kullu and Lahaul via the Rohtang Pass depending upon the weather conditions,” he added.

Every year, the Rohtang Pass is closed for traffic on November 15, but this year, tribals forced the BRO to restore it even after the official deadline