On Thursday, the Northern Army Commander Lt Gen Ranbir Singh explained a substantial improvement in infrastructure, including surveillance, night vision, fighting capabilities and modernisation since the Kargil war.
On Thursday, the Northern Army Commander Lt Gen Ranbir Singh explained a substantial improvement in infrastructure, including surveillance, night vision, fighting capabilities and modernisation since the Kargil war.
What should worry India is Pakistan army’s irrationality, not its capability
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)ALL over India there are efforts by many to hold events marking the Kargil Vijay Diwas today, the anniversary of the day when the undeclared war at the Kargil heights drew to a close in 1999. The Indian Army recaptured much of the territory occupied deceitfully by Pakistan during the ‘winter vacated’period of 1998-99. As many as 527 of our jawans made the ultimate sacrifice and 1,363 were injured. The remaining territory was vacated by the Pakistan army under politico-diplomatic pressure from India and the international community. India needs to remain reassured that if our politico-diplomatic efforts had not borne fruit, our Army would have fought on and recaptured the occupied territory and more. This would have been even to the extent of launching a war and suffering more casualties; an unfortunate consequence of misreading intent and being lulled at the operational level by events at the national-strategic level. As someone who had a grandstand view of events from the flank and was repeatedly tasked to analyse the potential of a second Kargil, I remain convinced that a Kargil-like situation may never again be experienced. Yet I am diffident about the Pakistan leadership’s utter unpredictability and irrationality. It is not just our weapons, equipment, training or intelligence that will prevent a potential Kargil 2, but better public information, interest in matters related to the armed forces, knowledge on national security at every level and better aware operational and tactical level commanders, that will. Most of the events organised today will remain bereft of explanation of what happened at Kargil and why. We are duty bound to tell the nation more about this. It is good to read Pakistani author Nasim Zehra’s recent book, From Kargil to Coup, to get a better idea of Pakistani psyche and how irrationally things work in that country. Why did Musharraf decide to target Kargil? A Mohajir General picked from lower in the seniority list to be chief; a former SSG commando deluded by perception of Indian incapability and a man perceiving himself smarter than all, led his army to intrude across the LoC for early occupation of the Indian ‘winter vacated’Kargil heights. He hoped it would give advantage by interdicting the summer highway from Srinagar to Leh. This artery is the lifeline to Ladakh and opens in May each year; the alternative route from Manali is less viable. In the absence of a communication artery for the logistics stocking effort, Indian occupation of the Siachen glacier would become untenable, thus forcing withdrawal; at least, that is what Musharraf thought. He had other linked intentions too. One of these was to bring J&K into limelight again and the other was to give an impetus to militancy in the Valley. He was convinced that the movement of reserve forces from the Valley (immediate flank) would open vast spaces for conduct of militant operations and infiltration; he wasn’t wrong on this. In addition, concerns of the international community would run high as there was little clarity on doctrines and protocols in the nuclear-armed region. This would bring diplomatic intervention by the big powers and force India to the negotiating table to resolve J&K. From all indicators and recent literature, the political leadership of Pakistan remained in the dark up to a point after which it was misled into acquiescence. Nawaz Sharif, at best, gets the benefit of the doubt. Musharraf’s attempted deception through projection of his army as just local mujahideen, out to expand the J&K conflict, also considered PM Vajpayee’s Lahore bus yatra as a contribution to the credibility of the deception plan. His assumption, like many Pakistani leaders before him, was that India lacked the will and courage to pursue robust operations to evict the intruders. No one questions the valorous response of the Indian Army to a situation that surprised it. The question is how and why we were surprised. The lesson from Kargil is that at no time must we lose balance in our focus. Our concentration was on the big-ticket counter-terror operations to neutralise the dangerous situation in the hinterland of the Valley and the Jammu region, as also on Siachen, where we were strong, but even a toehold by the adversary on the Saltoro Ridge could be disastrous. So it was only Kargil where the existing gaps in deployment were unviable and, therefore, vulnerable, especially in winter when a large number of posts were vacated. Attempts to do serious wide-area reconnaissance by helicopter in winter were restricted many times due to constraint in flying hours. At the operational level, the Army can never allow itself to be lulled by actions being undertaken at the national strategic level (such as the peace efforts through the Lahore yatra). The operational stance must cater to manageability of the volume of intelligence inputs, resources for deployment and response and even the nature of terrain. The sheer expanse of 15 Corps which managed the deployment from Gulmarg to Demchok (east Ladakh), Siachen and the hinterland operations obviated focus on a comparatively low-priority sector such as Kargil, where the population was not anti-national and the nature of LoC apparently fitted into the perception of only frequent exchanges of fire. In the light of an unstable state of polity in Pakistan, under the control of an army which seeks ways of retribution against India despite many efforts coming cropper, India needs to be wary. The Pakistan army has not learnt its lessons and is ever willing to risk employing innovative ways of attempting to wrest advantage. A nation in the habit of issuing daily nuclear threats and believing that it has achieved deterrence against us may lack intellectual capability to read the likely effects of its actions. Not its capability but its irrationality should continue to worry India. Kargil Vijay Diwas is a good occasion to recall the grit, valour and supreme sacrifice which was on display during the Kargil war. However, it would also be in order to conduct an audit of what has changed for the better since then, and what continues to constrain the armed forces. The Kargil Review Committee’s recommendations along with the Group of Ministers’ report have many benchmark measures which yet need consideration almost 20 years down the line. Shying away from them would be tantamount to repeating the mistakes of Kargil 1999. A former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps
Vijay Mohan
Tribune News Service
Chandigarh, July 21
Almost a decade after a general court martial (GCM) awarded the first-ever conviction to a woman Army officer for alleged professional misconduct, the Armed Forces Tribunal has upheld the verdict but reduced the quantum of sentence from dismissal from service to a severe reprimand.In July 2009, Capt Poonam Kaur of the Army Service Corps was tried on 10 charges under the Army Act for disobedience of lawful command, acts unbecoming an officer, levelling false accusations with an intent to defraud.The GCM had held her guilty on seven charges, but acquitted her on three charges pertaining to disobedience and intent to defraud. Almost a decade after a general court martial (GCM) awarded the first ever conviction to a woman army officer for alleged professional misconduct, the verdict has been upheld by the Armed Forces Tribunal, but has reduced the quantum of the sentence from dismissal from service to a severe reprimand.The AFT’s Chandigarh Bench held that the punishment awarded to her was not commensurate with the charges. The Bench has ordered that she be notionally reinstated in service and deemed to have been discharged from service on the completion of her term of engagement. As a short-service commission officer, she had completed three years and nine months of service and had one year and three months’ service left for her term to end.Poonam had been posted to an ASC battalion in Kalka, near Chandigarh. In 2008, she had levelled allegations of physical and mental harassment against her superior officers, but the subsequent court of inquiry held her blameworthy of professional and personal misconduct.
Partial relief
Suhail A Shah
Anantnag, July 17
A high-level meeting of top Army and police officers was held in Kulgam town on Tuesday to “get acquainted with the ground realities” and find ways and means to tackle the rising graph of militancy in south Kashmir.The meeting comes amid a rise in militancy in south Kashmir. As per official figures, a total of 70 youth have picked up gun in the four districts of south Kashmir till June-end.The meeting held at the office of the Superintendent of Police in Kulgam was attended by General Officer Commanding (GOC) of the 15 Corps Lt Gen AK Bhatt, Director General of Police SP Vaid and Inspector General of Police SP Pani.Following the meeting, the officers held a brief interaction with mediapersons.Vaid told the media that the meeting was held to get acquainted with the ground realities.“The aim was to meet the officers at the ground level and take stock of and review the ongoing situation. We wanted to assess whatever help was needed from the headquarters to make the situation better in the Kashmir valley,” Vaid said.Asked about the rising militancy and repeated infiltration bids on the Line of Control, Vaid asked Lt General Bhatt to answer the question. “In an ongoing operation, an infiltration bid has been foiled,” Lt General Bhatt said.Asked how the graph of rising militancy could be brought down and the youth who have picked up arms could be brought back to the mainstream, the GOC said the purpose of the meeting was to discuss all these things. “All of us had assembled here to ponder over all these things,” the GOC said.90 youths have picked up gun this yearOf the 90 youths who have picked up arms in the Kashmir valley since January this year, around 70 belong to south Kashmir. Anantnag has the lowest share of militant recruits at 12, while Shopian has the highest at 21. Kulgam district has a total of 16 youths who have picked up arms this year, while 20 youths have joined militant ranks in Pulwama district.
THE 10 hours of tête-à-tête between PM Modi and Xi Jinping have been a watershed in Sino-India ties that have oscillated between polite indifference and barely-concealed animus since the thaw exactly three decades back. Since then, Modi has also jetted to Russia for a similar but shorter conversation with Vladimir Putin, but it was the overflowing Sino-India bucket list that needed greater attention. New Delhi has taken care not to be seen as cosseting the Dalai Lama or vigorously endorsing the US position on the South China Sea while Beijing has reciprocated with promises of greater market access to Indian goods and services. And now an Indian Army delegation will cross over to China to carry forward the Wuhan spirit that, among other postulates, promised a less fractious border. The need to lower political temperatures suits both regimes. Xi welcomed a respite from Indian activism with the US in the South China Sea after Trump initiated a trade war while the North Korean situation remains fluid. With one-third of its total trade deficit accounted for by China alone, India realises that the recent offer of market access is of symbolic value when viewed against complete Chinese incalcitrance since this problem ballooned. The ties are now poised for a break-out moment when both need to shed long-held notions and apprehensions about each other to move to the next level of partnership.More than any other vector, a smooth trajectory of Sino-Indian military relationship is necessary to increase the domestic constituency for improved ties because in addition to the residual animus of the 1962 War, anti-China sentiment has been used to score domestic political points. For the first time after the Cultural Revolution, China too resorted to rabid anti-India outpouring during the Doklam standoff. The military bonhomie, denoting that both sides have agreed to turn the page on the recent acrimony, should set the stage for “clarification” of the border, a step that would eliminate confusion about overlapping claims on a dozen patches of the LAC leading to confrontation between patrols. India needs to harness the current thaw for visible progress on the border question.
THE Law Commission’s consultations with political parties on the feasibility of holding simultaneous Lok Sabha and state elections made for some unusual allies. The BJP, the principle proponent of the idea, has been backed by the Samajwadi Party and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti — the former its principal rival in UP while the latter subscribes to an ambiguous position. The Trinamool Congress and the Left, who do not see eye to eye in West Bengal, are on the same page in opposing the concept. But when push comes to shove, the SP and TRS will turn into rivals, if only to ensure the BJP does not appropriate and profit from the arguments of lower poll expenditure and better governance.But the Law Commission’s draft working paper on the subject outlines several difficulties that are far greater than the current political contest for public perception. At least a dozen laws need to be amended including changes to the basic structure of the Constitution that may well be a bridge too far because of the Supreme Court’s Kesavananda Bharati judgment. As proposed by the Parliamentary Standing Committee, this goal is possible in two phases: coinciding elections of half the states to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the rest with the 2024 edition.The immediate impact of this two-phase approach will be deferring elections to Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan Assemblies and clubbing them with the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. This strategy suits the Modi government because any erosion in the BJP’s support base here — as looks likely in Rajasthan and is a possibility in the other two — could put wind in the sails of the opposition for the 2019 polls. The opposition is unlikely to pass up the chance to turn these elections into a semi-final as well as try out mini gathbandhans. This is a better strategy than risk standing up to a Modi juggernaut in 2019. Federal institutions — the Election Commission and the Law Commission — may go through the motions, but it is doubtful if other parties will permit tactical advantage to the BJP for next to nothing in return.
Jammu, July 4
The Army rescued stranded passengers and vehicles on the Mughal Road near Behramgala in Poonch district on Tuesday night. It also provided medical aid to the injured and blankets and food to the stranded persons.Giving details, defence PRO, Jammu, Lt Col Devender Anand said that around 10 pm on Tuesday a massive landslide occurred on the Mughal Road. “Around 50 vehicles and a large number of passengers were stranded on the stretch. A desperate call for help was received by the Army, which immediately swung into action and reached the landslide area and rescued the passengers,” he said. The rescue operation was assisted by the J&K traffic police and Border Roads Organisation personnel from Surankote. The operation lasted till the wee hours on Wednesday and all passengers were safely evacuated. — T
The road to spirituality and prime ministership was coincidentally also marked by his third marriage to the scholarly-austere-mystic Bushra Maneka.
The man from the dustbowl district of Mianwali, Pakistan, who has feathered his illustrious hat as a former cricketer, commentator, philanthropist and politician, is now poised for the biggest “captaincy” of his 66 years as Prime Minister of Pakistan. The flamboyant Pathan of the Niazi-Burki stock has come a long way since forming his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf or PTI (Pakistan Movement for Justice) in 1996, and then winning the solitary seat by himself in the 2002 general election with 0.8 per cent of the national vote to now emerging as the biggest party in the 2018 general election.
Reminiscent of his cricketing life accusations of “ball-tampering” to deliver his lethal reverse swings, the political road to the PMO was paved with eerily similar murmurs of “friendly rigging” to take his political fortunes to its nadir. The PTI has finally emerged as the third major political force as it has bettered its 2014 performance, where it came third with 35 seats, even though it had garnered the second highest numbers of the popular vote (16.92 per cent, to Pakistan People Party’s 15.32 per cent, with 42 seats). The second successive transition of democracy from the PPP to PML(N) in 2013, and now from the beleaguered PML(N) to PTI is potentially the longest run for participative democracy in Pakistani history, and for the portents of the oft-quoted “Naya Pakistan” (New Pakistan)!
New Delhi watched the political hustings silently and without preferences in the quiet knowledge that irrespective of the individual in the Prime Minister’s position, the shadow of the “establishment” (read Pakistani military) will always loom and prevail in the background. Mr Khan has been consistently accused of being the “ladla” (favoured one) of the Pakistani “establishment”, and both the outgoing PML(N) and reduced-to-provincial-role PPP have already started rejecting the verdict “due to manifest and massive irregularities”. Whispers of the “establishment’s” preference for Mr Khan over the others first came out during the crippling azadi march of 2014, when the followers of Mr Khan’s PTI and those of moderate Islamic cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri were said to have been given the silent nudge by the military to organise the “sit-in” against the ostensible electoral frauds by the PML(N). Since then, while the Sharif brothers and the Bhutto-Zardari clans have been mired under multiple cases of corruption — the essential narrative of “King Khan” as the proverbial messiah of Pakistan’s economic slide and ignominy of corruption has been allowed to form.
Since his cricketing days, Mr Khan has developed a personality that has been larger-than-life and replete with instances of self-confessed misdemeanours that have ironically added to his persona. These traits of successful appropriations, selective ambivalences and “economies-of-truths” have come handy to evolve and mature the quintessential politician. Basking under the popular perception as the discoverer of the famed art of “reverse swing”, the real credit actually goes to the lesser-known Sarfraz Nawaz or even earlier Mr Khan’s clansman Farrakh Khan. Neither a tearaway pacer like Shoaib Akhtar nor as talented as Wasim Akram — the relatively more disciplined (only on the cricket ground) Mr Khan still emerged as the greatest Pakistani cricketer and captain of all time. His off-field exploits have been legendary on both sides of the LoC, as also in the West, only to rediscover his Islamic moorings and contemplative identity after meeting his mentor Mian Bashir. The supposed transformation from the playboy-socialite Imran Khan to the serious politician has since overcome all subsequent accusations of moral dalliances and infidelities, as exposed recently in the autobiography by his former wife Reham Khan. The road to spirituality and prime ministership was coincidentally also marked by his third marriage to the scholarly-austere-mystic Bushra Maneka.
While welcoming his opening spell of “you take one step forward, we will take two”, India must guard against the political reverse swings that are inevitable. His political, moral and personal malleability has earned him contradictory monikers like “Taliban Khan” and “Teflon Khan” alike. While frequently invoking and alluding to Jinnah and Iqbal’s vision of Pakistan as his lodestar, he was also in the forefront of submitting adjournment notice against the ban on Hafiz Saeed’s Jamaat-ud-Dawa. Sensing the popular mood he has dovetailed and postured his perceived angst against the US as a fierce critic of drone attacks, even though they target terrorists who have made Pakistan bleed. He carefully avoids the contentious root cause by saying incredulously: “In Pakistan, the main problem is not extremism”, and adds naively that it is one of “governance failure” — the implied context of which means different things to different people, yet offending none. His seesaw relationship with the military has also been opportunistic, with him either lambasting the generals or quietly acquiescing to their ways, like in recent times. The innate populism couched in his overtly political statement that he would not stay in the Prime Minister’s mansion as he would be “embarrassed” by its opulence militates against the reality of his own 40 acre hilltop mansion in Islamabad.
The political pitch awaiting his formal ascendancy will retest his temperamental skills as he will have to navigate the carefully defined contours of governance that could enfeeble, rile and rouse the proud Pathan in the “land of the pure” after the “establishment” has dumped the Sharif-Bhutto “props” who overstepped their mandate. Like all powerful and seemingly decisive Opposition leaders, who brave the streets against the ruling establishments, the change of role and responsibility to that of actual governance is a completely different ballgame. Charm offensives and glib talk have their limits and in countries like Pakistan the real challenge is managing the home turf and the “palace intrigues” within, as opposed to “external” threats (read India) that are strategically postulated as bogies to keep various institutions like the military, clergy and politicians relevant as diversionary tactics.
Historically, lionised individually and often accused of selfishness and lacking team spirit, for example his speech after the 1992 World Cup or by the likes of his contemporaries like Javed Miandad, the next innings has just started. India too therefore needs to take guard.
