Sanjha Morcha

Top Navy commanders discuss maritime security issues

New Delhi, May 8

Senior commanders of the Indian Navy began a four-day conclave here on Tuesday to discuss combat efficiency and military preparedness of the blue water force amid worries about an assertive China encircling India with its military and strategic assets in the Indian Ocean region and its neighbourhood.

The first edition of this year’s bi-annual Naval Commanders’ Conference is being held to review the Navy’s new “mission-based deployments philosophy that is aimed at ensuring peace and stability in the region”, a Navy spokesperson said.

“The Indian Navy’s focus over the past year has been on combat efficiency and materiel readiness and upkeep of its large fleet of 131 ships and submarines.” The spokesperson didn’t speak about China creating military and strategic assets in India’s close neighbourhood like in Bangladesh, Myanmar, the Maldives and Sri Lanka who have all signed up to Beijing’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

But the looming presence of Chinese warships on the high seas in the Indian Ocean has left India a lot worried, scurrying for strategic bases overseas—like the one New Delhi is now set to establish in the archipelago of Seychelles with which it signed a pact to build naval infrastructure in February this year.

Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who inaugurated the May 8-11 conference, said the Indian “Navy will be a force to reckon with in the Indo-Pacific” region.

She parried a question on Chinese ubiquitous presence in the region including a deep-sea port at Gwadar in Pakistan and the establishment of a naval base in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa.

Asked about India’s border and maritime competitiveness with China, the Defence Minister said “there is no tension between” the two neighbours.

Probed further and asked what had militarily changed between India and China following official visits to China by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and by herself, Sitharaman said: “We are talking and meeting each other. That is a big change.”  She said she had “a very pointed discussion on the issues raised by the (Navy) commanders” who were open-minded about the issues concerning the Navy and in highlighting India’s maritime strength.

The conclave would also review the measures to ensure safety, continued training and checks and balances on crew proficiency on-board the Navy’s frontline warships.

The spokesperson said the Navy had been at the forefront in the absorption and exploitation of cutting-edge technology.

As such, the “Naval commanders will deliberate upon steps to improve the teeth-to-tail ratio and explore niche fields such as Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Analytics” during the conference, he said.

The Navy’s initiatives to enhance indigenous defence industrial capability extending up to the micro small and medium enterprises are also likely to be covered during the conclave.

Currently, 27 ships and submarines are under construction in Indian shipyards. These include the first indigenous aircraft carrier Vikrant.

The Navy has already promulgated the ‘Indian Naval Indigenisation Plan 2015-30’, laying down its 15-year plan. IANS


Russia’s ‘permanent’ Prez The challenge of US sanctions

Russia’s ‘permanent’  Prez

By the time Vladimir Putin ends his fresh term as President of Russia, he would have controlled the Kremlin for an unprecedented 25 years. A man the West loves to loath, Putin’s years at the rudder have seen Russia making a significant turn from the Europeanism that guided the two terms of Boris Yeltsin’s unpredictable and whimsical rule.  Weary of poverty and lawlessness, Russian welcomed the arrival of Putin but that’s where its relationship with the West plummeted. Apart from Germany, Russia has few friends in the trans-Atlantic alliance and is now at the receiving end of an intense campaign to restrict its area of influence.India leveraged West’s antagonism towards Putin in a variety of ways, mainly by transfer of high-tech Russian technology and deepening its energy relationship that began only after the end of the Cold War. That window seems to be closing with the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CATSA). US President Donald Trump believes the Act is flawed but that perception has not stopped the legislation from casting a shadow on high-end Russian arms export to India such as the S 400 anti-missile defence, the developing trilateral transport partnership between Russia, Iran and India or the burgeoning relationship in oil that has made the Russian Rosneft the biggest FDI investor in India. Putin owes his power to the St Petersburg elite whose historical and cultural impetuses push it for a closer relationship with Europe. But the Kremlin now believes that its destiny is with Asia. India has to be creative to address the future problems that may arise from CATSA in order to make the most from Russia’s pivot towards Asia. Despite its dalliance with Pakistan, Russia too is aware that its interests will be better served by a balance between India and the Sino-Pakistan alliance. There is much that suggests Russia may be a declining power. Despite several structural weaknesses, it has always bounced back because of its geopolitical location, resource potential and great power tradition. Russia bez Putina (Russia without Putin) is not yet a foreseeable possibility and India needs to make the most of that.


The safe haven of a cantonment by Vartika Sharma Lehak

Image result for indian army cantonment

Image result for indian army cantonment

Image result for indian army cantonment

The families of serving military personnel need to be given special provision

Last year, during a train journey, I happened to share an air-conditioned cabin with a Professor at the Indian Institute of Technology and his family. I was travelling with my four-year-old daughter, and he with his toddler, wife and mother. I was visiting my in-laws in Dehradun. Since there is no direct train from Bhuj, where my husband, an officer with the Indian Army, is posted, I had to take a train from Bhuj to Ahmadabad, then to Delhi and from there to Dehradun.

Travelling is a way of life for those in the forces, and their families. It is almost like a natural instinct. And thus, when the professor shared his travails relating his recent move from IIT Chennai to IIT Delhi, I couldn’t help bursting out in a giggle. To prove his point further, he listed out the grey areas – finding a good school, maids, meeting the travel expenses, and so on. And then I shared my fauji way of life with him.

“Really? How do you manage to move once every two years?” he stared at me in disbelief.

Then with a little hesitation, he asked me, “Is the government taking care of you well? I mean, why Army? You guys are well-qualified. Why not join a corporate job, they pay you good and the perks are awesome.”

My smile broadened, I knew what Army gives. No one can understand that, it’s a feeling deep in your gut.

There was a long silence after that. Was he thanking god for his comfortable life, or something deep was stirred in my heart?

Today, the words of that professor mock me in the face: is the government taking care of us enough?

The Indian Army is an organisation that functions as an organism. Every part, every organ, has a vital and indispensable role to play. Not only our men and women wear the uniform, but the complete family – children, wife/husband and even parents— wear a tint of the olive green. When the officers are deployed in far-flung areas, it is the faith in safety and security of a cantonment that makes them serve the nation without any worry back home. And this is the reason there are no cases of rape or armed robbery in Army cantonments. There might be cases of theft, but no violent crime.

In 2016, when the Pathankot attack happened, we were posted in the vicinity. That was when I realised first-hand how vulnerable the families of the faujisare. There was a random ‘intel’ alert in the middle of the night, and the men changed into combat uniforms in a few seconds. We, families, knew our drill. Lock the doors, switch off the lights. We ate bread with cold milk. As news came about the ongoing encounter, we counted the number of latches that were missing in the doors, the thin plywood doors that needed just a casual kick to be opened. Mothers taught kids to crawl under the bed or climb in the under-roof, some packed chilli-powder in tiny packets.

Unlike ‘normal’ mothers we have an additional fear for the safety of our children when they board Army school buses. Experience has taught us that the cowards will not spare even our children.

The narration will not be complete without a mention of Army accommodations. As is common knowledge, Army wives are very creative and artistic. Most of the accommodation we get are in a bad shape. Sometimes the wall is rotting from seepage, or the doors are damaged, or the ceiling is dangerously cracking up. We all know that in the two-year tenure, more than four to six months will be spent waiting for the accommodation and furthermore for the repair work. So the enterprising ladies paint the panels in beautiful colours or take away attention from the seepage by creating an indoor garden. Often I am asked if I don’t get fed up with the life of a nomad or with the rural postings. No, we are happy as long as we get to stay together.

But, is the government taking care of us well?

Recently, a Minister, commenting on theNavy’s demand for housing in a posh locality, remarked, ‘Why stay in South Mumbai, go patrol Pakistan (sic).’

Two points here. First, most of the so-called posh localities are ‘created’ by Army cantonments, and many businesses have thrived on that. Secondly, our men are already patrolling Pakistan, and the remaining ones are either rescuing flood victims or training for the big day. But what about their women, children? Do they also join them at the border? Where is their right to a good living, opportunities to good education, when their men are away? Today we talk about the human rights of everyone but a fauji. Even a stone-thrower has more rights than a brave officer who decides to give him the taste of his own medicine.

And that’s why the question pops up again: Is the government taking care of us well?

Yes, we get a subsidy in train and air travel, but it comes to nothing if you count the number of trains one has to change to reach a remote destination. It comes to nothing when we have to pack in the middle of the academic session. The places that are considered peace stations for us are ‘field’ for a civil bureaucrat. Even in a peace station, the workload for uniforms is the same, even more. Then why withdraw the rations of officers? It was the privilege, the ‘perk,’ they have earned for their service to the nation.

So, is the government actually taking care of us at all by opening the gates of the cantonment? Are we trying to say that in a peace station, a fauji and his family become vestigial to the system? Opening a road that connects two major civil areas is understandable, but what is the need to open roads that are internal. Have we forgotten the bitter memories of the past, or are we waiting for another Pathankot? In stations like Delhi there are so many women whose husbands are posted in the field areas. And while their men fight the enemies outside, who will guard them from the ‘risks’ inside. Like the VIP roads in Lutyens’ Delhi, the internal roads of a cantonment are also as important for security reasons. From the routine training and drills of our men, they have an integral part to play in our way of life, and in the nation’s as well.

As I said, the Indian Army works like an organism. And what it needs today is a strong and healthy heart. After all, the same Army has given the country legends such as K.S. Thimayya, K.M. Cariappa and Sam Manekshaw. And in those days nobody even cared whether the government was caring or not.

neovartika@yahoo.com

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IMA Ball at Indian Military Academy

IMA Ball at Indian Military Academy

Lt Gen SK Jha, Commandant IMA, rolls the IMA ball. The IMA ball is held in run up to the passing out parade. Tribune photo

Tribune News Service

Dehradun, May 27

In the run up to the June 9 slated Spring term passing out parade, IMA Ball took place at Indian Military Academy, Dehradun.The IMA Ball is a precursor to the final event – The Passing Out Parade of the IMA, which is slated on June 9. The evening of joy, merriment and nostalgia commenced with the Commandant IMA, Lt Gen SK Jha, who set the ball rolling. The Gentleman Cadets in evening military attire and the ladies in their dazzling best graced the gala event.The IMA Ball is held towards the end of each term to mark the culmination of the rigorous training schedule of the passing out course. The event is associated with fun and frolic is also termed as the ‘Break Up Party’ for the Third Termers. 


LATEST WARRANT OF PRECEDENCE (Who Stands Where) Issued by the office of the President of India. 

1. The President of India
2.  The Vice President of India
3. PM
4. Governors of States within their respective States
5. Former Presidents
5A Deputy PM. 
6. Chief Justice of India / Speaker of Lok Sabha
7. Cabinet Ministers of the Union / CMs within their States / Former PMs
7A. Holders of Bharat Ratna Decoration
8. Ambassadors Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary and High Commissioners of Commonwealth Countries / CMs outside their States / Governors outside their States
9. SC Judges. 
9A CEC/ CAG of India
10. Deputy Chairman RS / Deputy CMs of States / Deputy Speaker LS / Members Planning Commission / Ministers of State of the Union
11. Attorney General of India / Cabinet Secretary / LG within their UTs
12. Chiefs of Army, Air and Naval Staff
13. Envoys Extraordinary and Ministers Plenipotentiary accredited to India
14. Chairmen and Speakers of State Legislatures within their States / Chief Justices of High Courts within their jurisdictions
15. Cabinet Ministers of States within their States / CMs of UTs within their UTs / Deputy Union Ministers
16. Officiating Chiefs of Army, Air and Naval Staff of the rank of Lt Gen or equivalent
17. Chairman CAT / Chairman Minorities Commission / Chairman SC & ST Commission / Chairman UPSC / Chief Justices outside their jurisdiction / Puisne Judges of High Court within their jurisdictions
18. Cabinet Ministers of States outside their States / Ministers of State in States within their States / Chairmen and Speakers of State Legislatures outside their States
19. Chief Commissioners of UTs not having a Council of Ministers within their UTs / Deputy Ministers in States within their States
20. Deputy Chairmen and Deputy Speakers of State Legislatures outside their States / Minister of State in States outside their States / Puisne Judges of High Courts outside their jurisdictions.
21. MPs. 
22. Deputy Ministers in State outside their States
23. Army Commanders (GsOC-in-C) / VCOAS and equivalent in other services / Chief Secretaries to States within their States / Members of Minority Commission / Secretaries to Govt of India / Secretary to President / Secretary to PM / Secretary Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha / Solicitor General
24. Lieutenant General or equivalent
25. Additional Secretaries to Govt of India / Addl Solicitor General / Advocate Generals of States / Chairman Tariff Commission / Chief Secretaries outside their States / Director CBI / DG BSF / DG CRPF / Director IB / Lt Governors outside their UTs / Members UPSC / PSOs of Armed Forces of the rank of Major General and equivalent
26. Officers of the rank of Major General and equivalent / Joint Secretary to Govt of India
27. Vice Chancellors of Universities
28. Commissioners of Divisions within their respective charges
29. Brigade Commanders within their respective Charges
30. Brigadiers / Inspector General of Forests / Inspectors General of Police
31. Commissioners of Divisions outside their charges
32. Secretaries to State Governments
33. Colonels / Accountants General / Chief Conservator of Forests / Chief Engineers / Inspectors General of Prisons / Members of ICS (now known as IAS) and Indian Political Service (now Indian Foreign Service) with 23 years ‘ standing
34. Controller Military Accounts and Pensions (now CDA)
35. Commissioners of IT / Deputy Commissioners within their districts
36. District and Session Judges within their charges
37. DIG of Police
38. Lt Col / Conservators of Forests / IAS and IFS  with 18 years standing / SEs.
39. Excise Commissioners / Registrar of Co-operative Societies
40. DCs of Distt / Distt and Sessions Judges / SPs of Distt within their charges (also now known with variable nomenclature as DCP / SSP in certain States)
41. DIG of Prisons / Officers of other Class-I Services and Provincial Services with 20 years standing
42. Majors / IAS and Foreign Service officers with 12 years service / SPs and DCPs with 15 to 20 years service
43. Asst Commissioners of IT / Officers of Class-I and Provincial Services with 10 years standing
44. DE / DFO / EEs / SP of Central Jails.
WoP is issued from time to time on the basis of joint consideration of the existing Central Warrant of Precedence, Warrant of Precedence – 1937, Home Ministry office Letter No /11/99-Pub II dated 26 Dec 1966 and validity of contents of Letter No 12/1/2007-Public dated 14 Aug 2007.

Naik Kuldeep Nainwal attains martyrdom

Tribune News Service

Dehradun, May 20

Naik Kuldeep Nainwal of Dehradun, who was grievously injured while fighting terrorists in the Kulgam district of Jammu and Kashmir during the month of April and was undergoing treatment at Pune military hospital, succumbed to his injuries on Sunday.A pall of gloom descended on the Harrawala locality of Dehradun, where martyr’s family is residing. The mortal remains of the martyr are expected to arrive in Dehradun on Monday.The Martyr’s father Chakradhar Prasad Nainwal had retired from the post of hony captain from the Army.Martyr Naik Kuldeep Nainwal had joined the Mahar Regiment in the year 2001 and was posted in Kashmir for the past two-and-a-half years. Chief Minister Trivendra Singh Rawat had enquired about the well-being of Kuldeep some time back.After suffering bullet injuries in Kulgam the encounter, a grievously injured Naik Nainwal was rushed to Army’s RR Hospital where after undergoing treatment for a while he was referred to        Army hospital Pune, where he finally succumbed to his injuries.


General VK Singh strikes back, files RTI seeking top secret report in 48 hours

VK Singh

Former Chief of the Army Staff General VK Singh has filed an RTI application seeking the Board of Officers Report on the activities of the ‘shadowy’ Technical Support Divison (TSD) of the Military Intelligence.

In the application, addressed to KL Nandwani, Deputy Secretary, MoD, filed under section 7 of the RTI Act, General (retd) Singh has sought all file notings of Army Headquarters and the Ministry of Defence on the report.

He has sought to personally inspect the files both at Army Headquarters and the MoD. The General has said since the matter affects his life and liberty, the files should be made available to him in the next 48 hours on receipt of application.

“The applicant may kindly be provided a copy of the report submitted to the MoD by the Indian Army prepared by the three members Board of Officers appointed to inquire into the functioning of the TSD, presided over by Lt Gen Vinod Bhatia, DGMO. The inspection of relevant files/records both at MoD and Army Headquarters may also be allowed,” writes Gen VK Singh in the RTI application.

General Singh has also sought relevant files in Army Headquarters and MoD on reports of a ‘coup’ in 2012, saying file notings on the subject both at the Army headquarters and MoD may be provided to him for inspection. The General and his legal team are working on a multi pronged strategy to take on the government on the issue of the leak of the TSD report and a number of other documents – some marked ‘Top Secret’ from the MoD, as it affects “India’s strategic assets,” the General and his legal team insist.

General Singh recently cleared the air on TSD insisting it is wrong to claim it was his ‘personal army’. “The need for TSD was felt during the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks in 2008. It was created on the operational directive of the Raksha Mantri (Defence Minister AK Antony). It was given tasks which its officers diligently carried out to keep India’s borders safe and to maintain internal security along with other agencies. It was not my private army and its activities were budgeted by the Directorate General of Military Intelligence,” Gen VK Singh said in a recent interview.

The General is of the opinion there is nothing that implicates the TSD in the Lt Gen Vinod Bhatia report that was submitted to MoD in March and in turn sent to the National Security Advisor (NSA) Shiv Shankar Menon in July for closure.

Sources in MoD refused to comment on Gen VK Singh’s RTI application. “Appropriate action would be taken at the appropriate time,” sources said.


APPEAL TO VETERANS(INDIA/ABROAD) TO ASSIST GROWNUP DAUGHTERS OF ARMY OFFICER :::UNDER HEAVY DEBT/AT BEGGING END.

Sanjha Morcha is dedicated towards CAUSE of  welfare of ESM/Widows/Children/Needy at all times

Recently  twin daughters of Lt Col Jasdev Singh (ASC) approached Sanjha Morcha for Financial assistance, who seems to be shaken up.

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They are daughters of Lt   COL JASDEV SINGH, (ASC), S/O LT. COL JAIDEV SINGH, (Signals), left them along with their  mother Sukhjinder Kaur for another woman.

The pitiable narration of their hardships as narrated by the twin Sisters is as under for information of Veterans with kind hearts.

“1. Our mother, who was a simple housewife with NO skills to earn any money to support us, we were left at the mercy of maternal grandparents. We both were school going children at the time and were not aware of our father’s motive or his intentions or of his dispute with our mother Ms Sukhjinder Kaur, d/o Late Sarvjit Singh.

2. We only remember and recollect that our father, Lt Col Jasdev Singh, brought us to Patiala. He was serving in 521 ASC Battalion located in field in Changsari in Assam, between Rangia and Gauhati. We were staying in NARANGI cantonment, near Gauhati. One day, from the blue, he brought us to Patiala with which we had NO connection at all. Thereafter he never saw us.

3.  Clearly, his motive was to seek divorce from our mother so he deliberately kept us away for more than two years, while he was seeing another woman, whom he later married within the same month that he compelled my mother to sign the divorce papers.

4. My mother was devastated but for fear of damaging our emotional strength, she kept us unaware even when he stopped financial help to us. Our mother kept all what was happening, concealed from us fearing adverse psychological and mental health which would have also have direct impact on our studies. He divorced our mother under pressure and manipulation and made the divorce’s proceeding in his favour. Our simple minded mother, was not aware of anything and was made to sign the divorced papers under duress. He completely absolved himself of any responsibility after offering my ‘Socked’ and ‘Stunned’ mother with a meagre amount as one time settlement

5.Needless to say that on learning that out father deserted us and abandoned us we are a disturbed lot, both emotionally and psychologically. It is more than 10 years that we are staying with our mother and grandparents, with whose support we were able to barely manage our studies. We both are still studying to complete our graduations but due to financial constrains are unable to continue further to ensure our employability. Any marriage prospects also look dim. We own no property.

6.The rising prices are pushing us into depression and poverty. With unfinished studies, there is No chance of getting a reasonable job to sustain ourselves. We continue to stay in a rented accommodation at Patiala. The landlords have often threatened to evict us. We are finding it extremely difficult to continue living like this. We cry in complete desperation, unsure of our future. We often think of taking our own lives

7. Our humble submission is to obtain financial assistance from our father but due to financial constrains and with heavy debt of approx RS 5 Lakhs and paying 5% monthly interest on loan amount is accumulating the Loan amount.

8. It is beyond our comprehension, as to how our father abandoned us. As a biological father how can he ‘wash his hands’ off his hands from liability as a father? We fail to understand what was our fault that our father left us along with our mother? Was it because, mother could not bear a son and that we girls.

9. He married our mother , by cheating as he was already married now he has married for third time.With lot of Struggle after 10 years we traced him at # 415/B, Sector 82, Noida.

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Dear Veterans , the above is the reality of painful and hardship faced by two sisters along with their mother , settled in Patiala. Lets come forward and contribute and save well educated and cultured Girls as Family responsibility before they take any extreme step due to burden. Those who EARLIER helped them are now harassing them to return or oblige them. Detail later

The account numbers of both the sisters are as under, the donated amounts can be directly transferred to their accounts.

BANK OF BOTH:::                                                                           

ACCOUNT DETAILS OF BOTH SISTERS

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MISS MEHAK KAUR   D/o Jasdev Singh     

ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE     NEW OFFICERS COLONY , PATIALA,    ACCT NUMBER : 03962413000109   

 IFSC CODE:- ORBC0100396     MICR- 147022002

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MISS CHEHAK KAUR, D/o Jasdev Singh:      

 ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE   , THE MALL PATIALA

 ACCT NUMBER : 06402413000383,    IFSC CODE:- ORBC0100640                                                                                                                MICR- 147022007

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THE VEDIO SHOW HOW DONATION CAN CHANGE LIFE AND CARRIER ::: AS PER TEACHINGS OF GURU GOBIND SINGH JEE.

 


Pak-based JeM directs its cadres to strengthen ‘jihad’ in Kashmir

Pak-based JeM directs its cadres to strengthen ‘jihad’ in Kashmir

Such statements by JeM from Pakistan have exposed Islamabad’s malicious designs in Jammu and Kashmir. Reuters file

Karachi, May 5

Pakistan-based terror outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed has directed its cadres to step up and intensify its ‘Jihad’ in Jammu and Kashmir.Addressing a gathering at its Markaz known as Beteha Masjid in Karachi, JeM commander Mufti Abdul Rauf Asghar claimed responsibility for the April 26 grenade attack in the Tral township of Pulwama district in Jammu and Kashmir.Rauf said in his speech, “During the ongoing ‘Daura Tafseer’, news of JeM cadres fighting at battlefronts (in J&K) was pouring in. On April 25 JeM cadres were engaged in fighting against the enemy and were killed the day after (April 26). Their funeral processions were being carried out and, meanwhile, another team of JeM launched attack to take revenge of killings of cadres on the previous day.”Such statements by JeM from Pakistan have exposed Islamabad’s malicious designs in Jammu and Kashmir.Rauf motivated cadres and told them not to forget the real motive for and behind ‘Jihad’. He said, “At the battlefront, there is no dearth of ‘Mujahideen’, who have been waiting in queues to enter into J&K to kill the enemy.The Jaish-e-Mohammed has been banned in Pakistan since 2002, but it continues to train terrorists in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and provides them weapons to create troubles in Jammu and Kashmir.Having maintained close relations with the Taliban and al Qaeda, it has carried out several attacks primarily in Jammu and Kashmir.Rauf has asked its cadres to be mentally and physically ready to join cadres at battlefield. “The war of ‘jihad’ is entering into an extremely dangerous phase, where enemies would be trying to eliminate Mujahideen from well inside their own locations. Time is likely to come when Mujahideen and others will have to take shelter in forests and plan strategy of survival.”From January to April this year, 55 terrorists have been killed by the security forces in the Kashmir Valley. A majority of these terrorists were from Pakistan who crossed the border to create disturbances in Jammu and Kashmir.On several occasions, India has accused Pakistan of sheltering terrorists and providing them open space to wage ‘jihad’ in the Kashmir Valley. ANI

 


India and 2 opposing narratives in Pak by TCA Raghavan

The issue of Pakistan’s civil-military strife, particularly with regard to Nawaz Sharif’s fate in the forthcoming elections, will continue to bedevil its relations with India.

India and 2 opposing narratives in Pak

Nawaz Sharif. AP/PTI

TCA Raghavan

Former High Commissioner of India to PakistanDisaggregating longer term trends from immediate developments is never easy in Pakistan as the drama of the moment often overrides everything else. Nevertheless, two contradictory processes are most evident amidst numerous others jostling to direct events: 1 Civil-military balance: The first is a steady accretion of influence around the army chief representing the continued tilting of the civil-military balance in the direction of the latter. This is a process that began in late 2014 and has gathered momentum since. On the way, it has crippled the PML(N) by deposing its charismatic head as Prime Minister. It is easy to overlook the substantive steps the Pakistan military had to take to achieve this outcome. The actions following the Peshawar school attack against Taliban-type fronts in the tribal areas was a source of public gratification and for most Pakistanis, the army had again proved that it was the country’s final and also ultimate saviour. As public adulation for the army mounted, the civilian government and the PML(N), in particular, found itself between a rock and a hard place. By mid-2017 and with Nawaz Sharif’s deposition as Prime Minister, the process had crystallised. The long cycle that began a decade earlier with Musharraf’s exit, the growing unpopularity of the army as terrorist attacks spread across Pakistan, the OBL raid etc had ended and the circle was complete.2 Nawaz Sharif’s postures: The second process is equally striking and is personalised and animated by the defiance of the PML(N) and in particular of Nawaz Sharif. His postures against hidden forces at work have evoked a public response that is surprising in itself. His accusations of a “judicial martial law’ have in turn spawned a new field of analysis for Pakistan that is being termed the ‘judicialisation of politics’. His claims that he is a victim of a judiciary military concert have a wide credibility. His party seems to be holding behind him and in the forthcoming General Election, it will be in the curious — but politically strong — position of both being the incumbent government as also the party against the establishment. These two then are rival popularities and narratives bouncing off each other — almost as if Pakistan wishes to embrace two contradictory ideas simultaneously and is unable or unwilling to choose one or the other. Is this muddle also part of Pakistan’s 20-year coup cycle — 1958, 1977, 1999….? It is tempting to think so, for who can deny such a possibility given Pakistan’s history.  Yet it is also a fact that in the past two decades, the Pakistan society has changed a great deal and the leap from precedent to the future is now more difficult and tenuous. Many of its institutions — the judiciary, media, military have matured and changed — and conflicting, working and allying with each other as they interface with parties seems to be the direction of change rather than an old-fashioned coup as was the pattern in the 1990s. This may be a reflection of the deepening of roots of democratisation, howsoever inconsistent and non-linier the process may be in the future.But for all this, large question marks about the immediate future remain. Will the General Election return results with a strong PML (N) showing as the present response Nawaz Sharif is getting suggests? Or will the PML (N) be cut to size and a combination of the other national parties rise to the top? A shaky coalition is what the military will be most comfortable with and which would be infinitely superior to a PML(N) thirsty for revenge and keen to rehabilitate Nawaz Sharif. There is going to be no clear answer to these questions for the future is untested terrain in Pakistan, as indeed elsewhere.

Indo-Pak ties

Where does this leave India-Pakistan relations, stuck as they are in the long impasse that developed in the first half of 2016? This was the result of the Pathankot air base terrorist attack, the Kulbhushan Jadhav case and the events that followed the detection and elimination of the Jihadi poster boy Burhan Wani in Kashmir Valley. But important as each of these were individually and collectively, it is perhaps also valid to speculate that the impasse continued longer than could have been anticipated on account of Nawaz Sharif being deposed in July, 2017.The impact of that on India-Pakistan relations should not be underestimated for his is the most powerful voice to have emerged in Pakistan in favour of reset of a fundamentally flawed and troubled relationship. How his party fares in the next election, what will be the architecture of the government and what happens in Pakistan in the interregnum are questions whose answers will impact on the country’s relations with India.In May, 2014, when PM Nawaz Sharif attended the swearing-in of the new government in India, it did appear that the strength of the ruling parties in both countries had enabled the emergence of a viable negotiating space. What could not have been anticipated was that as during earlier governments, foreign policy had no real answer to dealing with internal civil-military turbulence in Pakistan. This issue will continue to bedevil India-Pakistan relations and the frustrations of policymaking with Pakistan will remain our inability to influence the one single factor that has such a major bearing on bilateral ties. Nevertheless, keeping engagement on hold, much like all other policies, has a shelf life. As Pakistan heads to elections, it is also time to keep an eye on other clocks and choose from a menu of options, none of which may be to our liking.