London, November 6

Pakistan Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has said war is not an option with India and that only talks can resolve all outstanding issues, including Kashmir.Addressing a conference on “Future of Pakistan 2017” at the London School of Economics’ South Asia Centre here on Saturday, Abbasi described Kashmir as a “core issue” and said relations with India will remain tense until that is resolved. “Kashmir is the core issue with India. Until that is resolved, Pakistan-India relations will remain tense. We are always open to talks at any level and talks are the way forward. War is not an option,” Abbasi said.Highlighting India’s Cold Start Doctrine among recent developments, Abbasi said Pakistan had a “deterrent” in place. “We have a deterrent to that (Cold Start Doctrine) but I don’t think deterrents where both sides are nuclear powers is a solution to any problem. The only solution is continued talks,” he noted. — PTI

Internal politics in both India and Italy have led to questionable decisions that have vastly complicated an inherently difficult diplomatic case of the Italian marines accused of killing two Indian fishermen.

In choppy waters: Italian marines Massimiliano Latorre (R) and Salvatore Girone in file photo. afp

Vivek Katju
Former Secretary, Ministry of External AffairsItalian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni’s trip to India on October 3, the first in a decade at that level, is a significant step of the process to put India-Italy bilateral ties on an even keel after the strain of the marines issue drove them to breaking point. The matter has not been resolved, though neither side publicly raised it nor was it mentioned in the media briefings of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s meetings with Italian leaders in Rome last year. The Arbitral Council which has been constituted under the Laws of the Seas at Italy’s behest is expected to give its judgment next year on its plea that India does not have jurisdiction to try the case. It is unlikely that domestic politics of either country will not intrude to pressure the government concerned even if it would wish to take it in its stride. The Congress had charged the Modi government with putting up a weak case before the council when it ruled last year that the marine in India be allowed to go to Italy under conditions to be set by the Supreme Court. Allegations were also made that Italy’s cooperation needed in the Augusta Westland case also contributed to the so-called soft way India pleaded the case.Indeed, internal politics in both countries has led to questionable decisions that vastly complicated an inherently difficult diplomatic matter. In Kerala, it raised popular sentiment which fed into government decision-making.

Case timeline

To recall the facts: On February 15, 2012, two marines, Massimiliano Latorre and Salvatore Girone, on an Italian oil tanker, MV Enrica Lexie, shot at St Antony, an Indian fishing boat, 20.5 nautical miles off the Kerala coast, causing the death of two Indian fishermen, Ajeesh Pinku and Jeslestine. After the incident, Enrica Lexie filed an incident claiming a piracy attempt and carried to sail ahead. St Antony proceeded to the Kochi port. The Indian authorities being apprised of the incident caught up with Enrica Lexie and it came to the port. After investigations, the two marines were arrested and charged with murder.The Italians protested the arrests. They claimed that as the incident had occurred in the contiguous zone and not in Indian territorial waters, the Indian courts had no jurisdiction and the case should be tried in Italian courts. They further implied that St Antony’s sailing pattern just prior to the firing led to an apprehension of a pirate attack. The Italian contention was rejected by the Kerala High Court, which held that the Indian courts had jurisdiction under Indian laws. The high court also did not accept that as the marines were Italian defence personnel they enjoyed immunity. It, however, allowed bail to the marines and allowed special quarters. Such consideration was shown to them later by the Supreme Court, too.The Italians appealed against the Kerala High Court’s views to the Supreme Court. Notwithstanding the unacceptable action of Enrica Lexie in sailing away despite its captain knowing that it was innocent and the hollowness of the claim of immunity, the main issue on which the whole matter turned was: did the Indian courts have jurisdiction to try the marines for murder in the contiguous zone? That the firing was unjustified and Lattore and Girone should be tried for murder is beyond doubt; but where? The compensation given by Italy to the families of the fishermen does not reduce the guilt.It would have been appropriate for the government to urge the Supreme Court which became seized of the matter to give a final decision on this basic issue. While doing so, it would have naturally argued that India did have jurisdiction. However, the court was not pressed to definitively determine the jurisdiction issue. Even after a Supreme Court ruling, the Italians could have approached the Law of Seas dispute resolution mechanism, as they finally did in 2015, but this could have hardly opened the government to charges of going soft on Italy. Clearly, the UPA’s primary objective was to prevent any adverse reflection of the Congress first family and not let diplomacy have full play.

SC ruling

The Supreme Court decision ruled that while Kerala state did not have jurisdiction, the Union did, and the case should be tried by a special trial court set up for the specific purpose. Significantly, the court allowed Italy to agitate the jurisdiction question before the trial court. No action was taken to set up the court and the Italians also adopted delaying tactics.The Home Ministry decided to hand over the case to the NIA and invoke the Suppression of Unlawful Activities Act. This implied that the marines would be tried as terrorists. This was simply untenable and naturally led to great bitterness in Italy. Eventually, the Act was dropped, and the Indian Penal Code provisions were relied upon.If domestic Indian politics muddied diplomatic waters, so did the Italian politics. Having put the marines as guards on commercial Italian vessels without the protection of any international instrument governing the actions of such personnel, the Italian authorities could not be seen to be abandoning them. Indeed, the pressure to get them back soonest and maintain their dignity led Italy to decide that they would not return to India, although the Italian Ambassador had personally assured the Supreme Court that they would. The court had allowed them to go to Italy to cast their votes. The unacceptable Italian action precipitated an unprecedented diplomatic crisis in which the court became involved. Ultimately, the Italians backed down but after the incident, the UPA had to reinforce its rigid approach. Nevertheless, Modi criticised the NDA’s handling of the case during the 2014 election campaign.

Jurisdiction a stumbling block

With the Modi government coming to power, the two countries engaged on ‘private’ and ‘public’ tracks to resolve the issue. Nothing came of these attempts for jurisdiction obviously was a stumbling block. Italy approached the Laws of the Seas International Tribunal (ITLOS) in December 2015, seeking that it denies India jurisdiction. It also sought a provisional order that the marine in India be allowed to return to Italy. The Supreme Court had already allowed one to go back for medical reasons. Both countries are currently filing their submissions and that process will be completed in February 2018 after which a date will be set for the hearing.This case will confront the Arbitral Council with difficulties as it will go into new territory. Some Indian legal experts feel that India has a good case in view of recent evolutions of international law and prevailing circumstances. It is difficult to predict how the issue will go at The Hague next year. Thus India-Italy ties will have to navigate a stretch of choppy waters and politics will again, no doubt, compel diplomacy to take a back seat, which way the decision may go.

Guru Nanak Dev Ji::vedio

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Manpriya Singh

How difficult is righteous conduct, virtuous living and social responsibility? Unfortunately, very; especially in times of religious animosity, unbridled materialism and moral decline! However, improbable simple living and rightful conduct might sound, Guru Nanak’s teachings all the more become a practical compass for humanity today. A great prophet, a poet and a pious spirit; on Guru Nanak’s birth anniversary, we ask celebs how his teachings are relevant in today’s times and whether they have had any brush with community service.  Duty towards the needy Singer Jassi Gill makes it a point to go to the gurdwara, especially when he happens to be at home. Community service was inculcated at a very young age, courtesy a very religious upbringing. “Whenever we begin anything at home, akhand paath is a ritual and so is the langar. I have always tried to be as hands-on as possible especially with serving langar, if not making it,” shares the singer of Zimindar fame, who believes that Guru Nanak’s emphasis on social responsibility is something the world needs to embrace today. He adds, “I already sponsor a special child’s education till college and plan to increase that number soon.” He did that to a child from his native village; anyone following suit? The power of serviceThe earliest memory that Bollywood playback singer Sukhwinder Singh has of community service is when as a child they would splash water on hot marble floor. “In Golden Temple, especially during summer afternoons, the floor would be piping hot; we would as children love splashing water and cooling it down for the sangat,” he recalls. “Then of course we would move onto doing the dishes and serving langar, irrespective of who was coming to partake that food. It’s the similar devotion towards one’s society that we need to imbibe in today’s times,” he signs off. There’s a parting note. “Guru Nanak was the greatest poet of the universe and I remember Gulzaar sa’ab saying it to me once.” Make it holistic, not ritualistic From washing dishes to serving food to making it, you name it and actor Gugu Gill has done it all. “As children whatever opportunity we got for community service, we did,” he shares. “It wasn’t a ritual that we followed, rather it was a way of living,” adds the singer, who feels we need to imbibe Guru Nanak’s teachings in every day living rather than ritualistic practices. Good intentions, clean thoughts Almost every gurpurab, singer-actor Ammy Virk recalls having been in India. “Hardly during one or two gurpurabs I must have been abroad,” he recalls, while focusing on how important is the festival for him and his family. “As a child I was proactive about the concept of community kitchen started by Guru Nanak,” opines the singer, who feels we need to imbibe clean thoughts and good intentions in almost every breath we take. “I would like to tell all my readers and fans, stay true and right in everything you do; that is a major part of Guru Nanak’s teachings.” Rest, “A very Happy Gurpurab,” he signs off.  

I am writing this on Sunday, October 22, 2017. The prime minister Narendra Modi will visit Gujarat the third time this month. In the run-up to the state assembly elections, he will inaugurate and lay the foundation stones to a number of projects.

The prime minister’s multiple visits to Gujarat have led to the question-is the BJP on a weak wicket in Gujarat? A strong anti- Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) front seems to be emerging in the state. The leader of the other backward classes (OBCs) Alpesh Thakor is expected to join the Congress on October 23, 2017.

Hardik Patel, the leader of the Patidar Patels, through his tweets seems to have indicated his preference for the Congress, though some of his aides have joined the BJP. Also, Patel currently is not old enough to fight elections.

On the flip side, Gujarat (unlike many other Indian states) has always been a two-horse race between the BJP and the Congress. And in this race, the Congress has gone nowhere in the recent decades. Its vote share has moved between 33-38 per cent of the votes polled and hence, India’s grand old party has not managed to displace the BJP. The extra 5 per cent votes that the Congress needs to give tough competition to the BJP, has never really come.

How will things turn out this time around? Honestly, I am not a political analyst and don’t know the answer to this. But what I do know is that the BJP has built a formidable election management system under its president, Amit Shah.

Prashant Jha in his new book How the BJP Wins-Inside India’s Greatest Election Machine describes this election management system in detail. And after reading this book I can say with reasonable confidence that displacing BJP at the state level (in the various assembly elections scheduled up to 2019) and in the Lok Sabha elections scheduled in 2019, will be no cakewalk.

This, despite the fact, that the Modi government has managed to screw up the economy big time through the disastrous decision to demonetise Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, and a terrible implementation of the Goods and Services Tax.

I will not get into the details of the election management system of the BJP that Jha writes about in his book, given that a single Letter cannot do justice to it. Hence, dear reader, if you do have the time and the inclination, do check out the book.

Nevertheless, in this Letter I will talk about the factors that go in favour of the BJP and Modi, and the factors that go against them, when they fight an election in the days to come and this includes the Lok Sabha elections of 2019. Let’s look at these factors one by one.

Let’s start with the performance on the economic front. The promised acche din are nowhere in sight. In fact, the informal part of the economy which forms around 40 per cent of the GDP and employs more than three-fourths of the labour force, has collapsed. Economic growth has collapsed from more than 9 per cent to now less than six per cent. As far as the non-government part of the economy is concerned, which forms close to 90 per cent of the economy, it is now growing at just 4.3 per cent. So, there clearly are issues on the economic front. Having said that the government has time up until 2019 to set it right.

Also, more importantly does economic performance of the nation, really matter to the core supporters of Modi and the BJP. Or are they simply happy with the stand that the government is taking on the Ram temple in Ayodhya and all the rhetoric that surrounds the protection of the cow.

This will be a really important factor in any election. It remains difficult to figure out to what portion of the voters are these issues important. Not surprisingly, a narrative is already being built around these issues, for the core support base. And as May 2019 approaches, things could get murkier on this front.

As Evan Davis writes in Post Truth-Why We Have Reached Peak Bullshit and What We Can Do About It: “Like-minded groups of individuals share a narrative about many things… These narratives are sometimes true, sometimes not, but they are often like stereotypes… Once embedded in our minds though, they can easily gain excessive traction and trample over truth as willing believers put too much weight on propositions that conform to their narrative without looking for evidence in support of them.”

Further, it is worth asking whether voters vote based on the economic policy being practiced by the government. As Davis writes: [THE] argument that who you are matters more than the substantive point you are making is especially true about politicians. Voters focus on character rather than policy partly because they are better able to judge character and are relatively uninformed on policy… So, for a politician, having a good reputation is worth a hundred quick victories in specific arguments.

Modi’s personal brand still remains strong, though it may have been battered a bit. Over and above this, his brand will always be compared to those he is competing against and on that Modi wins hands down.

Expanding on the third point, the question is who will be the leader of the opposition parties. Will it be Rahul Gandhi? Or will it be a leader like Mamata Banerjee? As Jha writes in How the BJP Wins: “Will Rahul Gandhi accept a regional leader? Will a powerful regional leader like Mamata Banerjee accept a Rahul Gandhi?”

It will be imperative for the united opposition (if anything like that emerges) to have a consensus candidate and fight their elections under him, because a presidential style contest is likely to emerge, in the fight against Modi.

Other than choosing the right candidate, the opposition parties will have to build a credible narrative around him and what they have to offer. The narrative will be necessary to expand the core base. Just saying that we are there to displace Modi is unlikely to work. As Jha writes: “If ‘remove Modi’ is the only message, and the glue that binds them together, then they have a problem. Modi will project it, much like Indira Gandhi did, as a battle between him – a man committed to removing India’s poverty, man committed to India’s vikas – against a conglomeration of small, scattered, disparate units – united only by their hatred for him.”

Also, do these parties have the organisational muscle to take on the organisational muscle of the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayemsevak Sangh (RSS). The BJP always had access to the organisational muscle of the RSS, but the Sangh in the past, has not always deployed those resources totally, to help the BJP. That has changed now because of the personal relationship that Modi shares with the Sangh boss Mohan Bhagwat.

Narendra Modi was practically brought up in the RSS. And as Jha writes: “To top it all, Modi’s mentor in the Sangh happened to be Bhagwat’s father.” How do you tackle an equation like this?

In many states, like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka, any election will be a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP. Does the Congress have the organisational strength to take on BJP and the RSS?

The bigger problem for the Congress is that it does not have full time politicians at the top. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are full time politicians. They don’t have any other interests in life. The same cannot be said about the Congress leadership. Whatever people might say about the recent revival of Rahul Gandhi, he just doesn’t inspire enough confidence. I am just waiting for him to take his next holiday at a point of time, when he should be in the country.

The Congress Party for the last many years has always been led by a Gandhi. The Gandhis brought in the votes. But now that is no longer the case. So, the question that is being asked can a non-Gandhi lead the Congress. For a moment, let’s assume that the Gandhis take a backseat. Will the other leaders of the Congress be ready to work under the leadership of a non-Gandhi? I don’t think so. Without, the Gandhis at the top, the glue that holds the party together, the party is likely to break up and if not that the factionalism is bound to increase dramatically.

A big advantage that the Modi government has, and which the opposition doesn’t, is that it can use the official machinery in its favour. Recently, the Election Commission announced the election dates for the assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh, but did not do so for the assembly elections in Gujarat and offered a very flimsy reason for it. This gave Modi and the BJP more time to launch more new projects in the state and offer more sops to the voters, something they wouldn’t have been able to do, if the election dates would have been announced.

Over and above this, the government (like the previous governments) can continue using taxpayers’ money to keep building their brand. They can also announce waive offs closer to the election date. I have a feeling that sometime in late 2018, early 2019, a big Mudra loan waive off is on its way. More than 9 crore Mudra loans have been distributed till date. And any waive off of these loans, will give a huge push to the electoral chances of the BJP in 2010, given that it will impact 45 crore individuals in total (assuming a family of 5 per household).

Up until now, I have offered reasons which go for the BJP. Now that doesn’t mean that all is well with the BJP. The section of the population is clearly not happy with the economy not doing well. A million youth are entering the workforce every month and the job scene continues to remain bad. The trouble is that the government is simply unwilling to recognise this problem and keeps talking about self-employment opportunities that it has created. These claims are rarely based on any data. The problem with trying to be too clever all the time is that ultimately you get found out. This something that the BJP leaders need to seriously think about.

So, it remains to be seen whether this issue emerges as a strong political issue. It further remains to be seen whether the opposition parties are able to tap into the frustration of the youth who are entering the workforce and not been able to find decent jobs.

Many land owning communities like Marathas, Jats, Patidar Patels and Kapus, have launched protests in the recent past, demanding reservations in government jobs. This remains a tricky issue to handle.

In states like Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP has done well, it has built a broad coalition of castes. In Uttar Pradesh, along with the support of upper castes, the BJP was able to reach out to backwards particularly those who did not like the rise of the Yadavs under the previous regime, and the Dalits, particularly those who did not like the rise of the Jatavs under Mayawati. The trouble is that the any government has only so many resources to share and distribute.

As Jha writes: “Caste groups end up competing with each other for state patronage, resources, access to power. There are limited opportunities available and so certain caste groups and, within the caste groups, certain individuals end up cornering more than their share of positions… A road is constructed or schemes are more effectively implemented depending on whether the constituents of that village are supporters of the regime in power. Given weak institutions, access to political power often determines if a person of a specific caste has access to the local police station.”

If sabka saath sabka vikaas has to become a reality, then the current governance structures will have to be changed. Local police officials need to respond to various complaints, irrespective of the caste of the individual making the complaint. This remains very difficult to implement.

Already, in Uttar Pradesh there are accusations of Thakurs, the caste to which chief minister Yogi Adityanath belongs to, taking over the police administration.

For a very long time, the BJP was a party supported by the upper castes and the business castes. Under Modi and Shah, the support base of the party has expanded and includes a large section of the poor as well.

While, this has benefitted the party tremendously, the party organisation hasn’t changed to reflect this new reality. As a top BJP leader told Jha: “The party organisation has still not transformed itself. At the moment the party’s character and the PM’s support base may slowly diverge. You cannot have an SUV driving rich contractor as your district president if your target is the poor voter.”

This can lead to a situation where the party’s political messaging is neither here nor there.

To conclude, these are the factors which will matter in the runup to the 2019 elections. While, BJP is on weaker wicket in comparison to 2014, a small industry seems to have emerged in writing off the electoral chances of Modi and the BJP in 2019, on the basis of a few recent losses in assembly, Lok Sabha, and a few other smallish elections. But they are really jumping the gun, on the basis of very little evidence.

The BJP’s election machinery is very strong, and it can take on these defeats in its stride.

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Vivek Kaul is the Editor of the Diary and The Vivek Kaul’ Letter. He is the author of the Easy Money trilogy. The books were bestsellers on Amazon. His latest book is India’s Big Government – The Intrusive State and How It is Hurting Us.

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THE SALUTE: Victor Force GOC Major General BS Raju pays homage to Major Somnath Sharma at the Budgam War Memorial on Friday. Tribune photo

Tribune News Service

Srinagar, November 3

The Army on Friday paid tributes to Major Somnath Sharma, the recipient of the first and the highest war gallantry honour in India, Param Vir Chakra.Maj Gen BS Raju, Victor Force Commander, laid a wreath at the Budgam War Memorial and Brigadier Suresh Chavan, Commandant, JAK LI Regimental Centre, laid a wreath on behalf of the Chinar Corps at Major Somnath Sharma Memorial as a mark of respect for the martyr.Maj Gen Raju said the supreme sacrifice of Major Somnath had set an example of courage and leadership that would seldom be equalled in the history of the Indian Army.On October 22, 1947, when Pakistan launched the tribal invasion of Jammu & Kashmir with an intention to grab the Kashmir valley by force, the D Company of 4 Kumaon, led by Major Somnath Sharma, was airlifted to Srinagar on October 31 as part of the Army’s response after the Instrument of Accession was signed.“Major Somnath Sharma, with his arm in plaster, on November 3, 1947, established a base at Bugdam against raiders approaching Srinagar from the northern direction. In the contact that followed, despite facing a numerically superior enemy force of about 700 raiders supported with small arms, mortars and heavy automatics, Major Sharma and his troops held on to their positions and did not let the enemy succeed in their designs. This gallant effort stemmed the tide of the enemy advance on Srinagar and the airfield for some very crucial hours. In this battle, Major Somnath Sharma along with one JCO and 20 other personnel lost their lives.